Tnc Wind Presentation 01 07

GLOBAL WIND POWERMichael Totten, Conservation International

TNC Wind Power WorkshopJan. 24, 2007

Normative Criteria1. Optimizing the delivery of efficient energy services at or near the point of

use as the key goal, rather than simply expanding ever-larger resource supplies shipped over ever-longer distances at ever-higher expense;

2. Environmentally and ecologically friendly and avoiding adverse impacts (to terrestrial, freshwater, marine ecosystems);

3. Economically attractive now, with massive growth opportunity in the foreseeable future (speed facilitated by well-crafted incentives, R&D, policies and regulations);

4. Low-risk, risk-resistant and risk-manageable — against inflation, price spikes, sudden disruptions, acts of nature or malicious attack;

5. Resilient — if the energy system (water, transport) fails, it fails gracefully, not catastrophically, and is rapidly recoverable;

6. Enhancing climate, air and water quality;7. Resulting in minimal adverse impacts and capable of further reducing

those externalities through continuous innovation and best practices; and8. Robust experience curves — potential for significant, ongoing

improvements in cost, performance, reduced footprint, generation of positive externalities, etc., through ongoing R&D and cumulative learning experiences.

50 to 100X more energy than converted into biomass by

all plants on earth.

1 to 2% of the sun’s energy is converted

into wind energy.

WIND

Global Power Investment will Misallocate Half of $48 Trillion – to the detriment of customers

TWh(billion kWh)

coal

oil

natural gas

nuclear

large hydro

other renews

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Projected World Electricity Generation 2030

• Over 30-year lifespan of these power plants consumers will pay $48 trillion (at 5¢/kWh)

• Alternatively, investing in lower cost efficiency improvements in the manufacturing of high efficiency appliances, consumer electronics, lights, motors, buildings, etc. could save $24 trillion of this projected growth

• Money left in customers wallets by avoiding higher utility bills

• Money spent on retail purchases of a myriad of high efficiency devices

• Dramatic reduction of CO2 emissions (potentially one-fourth of 2030 global energy emissions) as an ancillary co-benefit of efficiency gains

Source: Intl Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004

Less Utility Power Plants through More Retail “Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs”

Less Coal Power Plants

Less Coal Rail Cars

Less Coal Mines

$

Avoids Externalized cost from pollutants between $50 million & $360 million per yearAccrues $67.5 million annual savingsSaves 45 billion gallons watersAvoids Waste generation of 70,000 tons/year of sludge

Avoids significant quantities of toxic mercury, cadmium, arsenic, and other heavy metals

Avoids emitting 2 million tons CO2

Avoids emitting 5,400 tons NOx

Avoids emitting 5,400 tons SO2

Avoids burning 600,000 to 800,000 tons coalEliminates 6,000 to 8,000 railroad car shipments of coal delivered each year

Each 300 MW Conventional Coal Power Plant (CPP) Eliminated by an equivalent Efficiency Power Plant (EPP)

(1.8 billion kWh per year)

Avoided Emissions & Savings

[1] Estimated at between 2.7 to 20 cents per kWh by the European Commission, Directorate-General XII, Science, Research and Development, JOULE, ExternE: Externalities of Energy, Methodology Report, 1998, Twww.externe.info/reportex/vol2.pdfT

Biggest Retail EPP of Them All:Supplier Chain Factories & Products

Industrial electric motor systems consume 40% of electricity worldwide – over 7 trillion kWh per year.

Motors consume 60% of China’s total electricity, 50% in USA.

Efficiency savings of 30% or more highly cost-effective.

2 trillion kWh per year savings – equal to 1/4th all coal plants to be built through 2030 worldwide.

$240 billion savings per decade, freed up from the utility sector by capturing this super mega-EPP in manufacturing facilities.

$200 to $400 billion savings per decade in avoided emissions of GHGs, SO2 and NOx.

OutcomesDemand - Facts

Support SEEEM (Standards for Energy Efficiency of Electric Motor Systems)

SEEEM (www.seeem.org/) is a comprehensive market transformation strategy to promote efficient industrial electric motor systems worldwide

Megadamus negavitae7% of total global GHG emissions, rising

to 15% given potential expansion

Net Emissions from Brazilian Reservoirs compared with Combined Cycle Natural Gas

Source: Patrick McCully, Tropical Hydropower is a Significant Source of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Interim response to the International Hydropower Association, International Rivers Network, June 2004

DAMReservoir

Area (km2)

Generating Capacity

(MW)

Km2/MW (vs

wind 0.1)

Emissions: Hydro

(MtCO2-eq/yr)

Emissions: CC Gas (MtCO2-eq/yr)

Emissions Ratio

Hydro/Gas

Tucuruí 24330 4240 5.7 8.60 2.22 3.87

Curuá-Una 72 40 1.8 0.15 0.02 7.50

Balbina 3150 250 12.6 6.91 0.12 57.58

Freshwater Fish Species Threatened

% Fish species 8 times more threatened than mammals

or birds in the USA

NUCLEAR POWER?

The fascination with nuclear power is due to the fact that 1 ton of uranium can displace 20,000 tons of coal

1) Ever-present target of nuclear facilities for military or terrorist attack;

2) Dual civilian-military nature of a nuclear reactor;

3) Proliferation of weapons-grade material;4) Diversion of uranium fuel for military or

terrorist use in fabricating atomic bombs;5) Contaminant fuel wastes that remain

radioactive for millennia; and,6) Generating systems that can fail

catastrophically, with disastrous human health and ecological consequences lasting for generations, and economic impacts lasting for centuries

Unfortunately, uranium-generated electricity carries some intrinsic downsides that are inherently intractable:

Displacing coal use worldwide by 2100 would require constructing a 100 MW nuclear reactor every 10 hours for the entire century. It would require reprocessing weapons-grade plutonium for use in breeder reactors by 2050. This would produce 5 million kilograms of plutonium per year, equal to 500,000 atomic bombs, annually circulating in global commerce.

In the USA, cities and residences cover 140 million acres.

Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by applying PV to 7% of this area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in other dual-use scenarios. We wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!

Global Wind Speed extrapolated to 80 meter heightaveraged over all days of 2000 at sounding locations with >20 valid readings.

Source: Archer & Jacobson, Evaluation of Global Wind Power, Journal Of Geophysical Research, V. 110, 2005.

72 TW global wind power generated at locations with mean annual wind speeds 6.9 m/s at 80 m. 20% captured could satisfy 100% of world energy

demand for all purposes, and >7X world electricity needs (in 2000).

Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC)www.gwec.net

Source: Global Wind Energy Council, Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006, Sept. 2006, www.gwec.net/

For context: 18,000 TWh of global electricity generated in 2005 from all sources, including 2,800 TWh from nuclear and 2,800 from hydro.

124 TWh

Global Cumulative Wind Power 1995-2005(MW & TWh)


Global Cumulative Wind Power 2005-2050

6,900 TWh

5,200 TWh

2,600 TWh

340 TWh

124 TWh

7,900 TWh

Advanced Scenario Assumptions: 20% annual growth, progress ratio 0.90 to 0.98, global capacity factor 30%, 1/3rd of global electricity (w/ high efficiency).

(MW & TWh)


Regional Breakdown: Advanced Scenario [GW]

INVESTMENT: By 2030, annual investment value of the wind energy market would be $110 billion.

GENERATION COSTS: By 2020, a good site would be 4 to 5 ¢/kWh, and a low average wind site 5 to 7.7 ¢/kWh.

EMPLOYMENT: By 2030, 1.4 million jobs, and 2.8 million by 2050.

CO2 SAVINGS: By 2030, 3.1 billion tons per year, increasing to 4.7 billion tons per year by 2050. [Total CO2 in 2006 ~8 billion tons]


Wind Power Advanced Scenario

In 2005 China reset 2020 wind target to 30 GW. An increase of 10 GW from the goal of just a year earlier. Raises annual growth rate from 20% to 24%.

Wind industry experts are confident that 170 GW is achievable by 2020, and 330 GW by 2030. The required 39% annual growth rate is feasible, they argue, IF utility pricing policies can be reformed.

CHINA Advanced Wind Scenario

NREL wind mapping of vast areas of eastern China at 50-m height found 4% of the mapped LAND area could support 580 GW at a conservatively estimated 5 MW/km2(good-to-excellent wind resources).

NREL estimates windy MARINE sections could support >660 GW, and 4X this figure Including moderate wind resources.

More studies are required to accurately assess the wind potential, considering shipping lanes, water depth, existing transmission grid and accessibility.

CHINA Advanced Wind Scenario

Wind Energy ATLAS of Brazil, Atlas do Potencial Eólico Brasileiro, Antonio Leite de Sá, Electric Energy Research Center – CEPEL, DEWI (German Institute of Wind Energy), Magazine 19, Aug. 2001. Wind Economics, CBEE, www.eolica.com.br/index_ing.html

Simulations, performed in 1999 by CEPEL (Brazil’s Electric Energy Research Center), estimate a Brazilian wind potential of 144 GW.

This assumes average wind velocities of more than 7m/s, only on-shore, using wind turbines of 600 kW. The Brazilian Center of Wind Energy (CBEE) indicates wind power generation is between 4 and 8.4 ¢/kWh.

Yet, only 28 MW installed by 2005, and 200 MW by 2006.

Brazil Advanced Wind Potential

Rio Grande do Sul

Wind Energy ATLAS of the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, Secretariat of Energy, Mines and Communications

Brazil Advanced Wind Potential

Along the 630 km coastline of Rio Grande do Sul there are 986 km2 of sand and dunes, fanned by intense and constant winds.

Also inland, many winds come together with the Minuano to create one of the most promising sources of wind power in Brazil.

Between 55GW and 115 GW is available for areas with winds >7.0m/s, at heights 75m and 100m, respectively.

winter

springsummer

fall

Rio Grande do Sul

The 55-115 GW of estimated wind power for Rio Grande do Sul is relatively high. The total Brazilian hydro resources (inventoried plus estimated) is 143 GW, and Brazil’s total installed capacity was 77 GW in 2001.

Source: Rio Grande do Sul Wind Atlas, http://www.semc.rs.gov.br/atlas/ENGandiag.htm

Rio Grande do Sul Wind Potential

US wind power capacity end of 2002 (MW)


Of the practically exploitable U.S. wind resources of moderate or better quality, 95% are located in the sparsely populated 12 Great Plains states, where the generation potential is 3X total U.S. electricity generation.

Figures of MeritGreat Plains

1,200,000 mi2

100% U.S. electricity400,00 wind turbines

Platform footprint6 mi2

Large Wyoming Strip Mine>6 mi2

Total Wind farm area 37,500 mi2

34,000 mi2 still available farming-ranching-prairie

CO2 U.S. electricity sector40%

-

Although agriculture controls about 70% of the land area in all three sub-regions of the Great Plains (Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains = Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas), the contribution of agriculture to the Gross Regional Product in very small. Agriculture is very important in the region for many reasons, but it is not a major player in the regional economy compared to other industries. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)

1. Unsuitable – lands where development is prohibited (Appalachian Trail corridors, for example) or "high conflict" areas

2. Less than ideal – federal or state conservation lands rated "medium conflict"

3. Conditionally favorable –Conservation or open space lands rated "low conflict," or open space or private lands rated "medium conflict":

4. Most favorable – Unrestricted private land and "low conflict" areas

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250

windpower farm

non-wind farm

US Farm Revenues per hectare

govt. subsidy $0 $60windpower royalty $200 $0farm commodity revenues $50 $64

windpower farm non-wind farm

[Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April

Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income

Crop revenue Govt. subsidy

Wind profits

1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market);

Potential Synergisms

2) Re-introducing free-ranging bison into these prairie grasslands -- which naturally co-evolved together for millennia -- generating a potential revenue stream from marketing high-value organic, free-range beef.

2 additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains:

Also More Resilient to Climate-triggered

Droughts

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Wind turbine Solar-electric combined cycle coal-fired nuclear

Water Consumption (liters per MWh)

Water Use in Energy Production

Education

Tnc Wind Presentation 01 07