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The ClimateInstitute

Warsaw Climate Summit: First International Climate Test for New Government

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“The climate commitment of the Government will be tested for the first time internationally at the climate talks in Warsaw...If Australia does not deliver a credible domestic policy to match its commitments, it will undermine its ability to shape a treaty outcome consistent with our own national climate interest in avoiding 2ºC warming.”

John ConnorCEO, The Climate Institute

Warsaw Climate Summit

This presentation summarises The Climate Institute’s policy brief, Warsaw Climate Summit: First International Climate Test for the New Government. The 19th UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of Parties (COP19) will take place in Warsaw, Poland, from 11-22 November 2013. This will be the first major international climate change meeting attended by the newly elected Coalition government. The Warsaw meeting will occur as legislation is introduced into Parliament to remove the nation’s first legislated limit on carbon pollution from major emitters and for Australia to become the first country to dismantle a carbon market.

Cover: Belchatow Power Station in Poland. Europe’s largest thermal power station. (Michael Hall, Creative Fellow of The Climate Institute)

November 2013

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Progress has been made since CopenhagenInternational climate change negotiations have made significant, but insufficient progress

• Countries representing 80% global emissions commit to action

• Political commitment to avoid 2oC

• US$ 100 billion financing commitment

• Country emissions commitments placed under UNFCCC

• Green Climate Fund established

• Agreement to finalise new binding agreement covering commitments from all major emitters

• Agreement to 2nd Kyoto target period

• Agreement to streamline negotiations towards new agreement in 2015

• Finalisation of agreement on 2nd Kyoto target period

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More critically, domestic action to

limit carbon pollution and drive investment

in low pollution technologies in key major emitters has

accelerated in the lead up to Copenhagen

and since.

• Emission trading has expanded to 40 countries, including parts of China and the US, with countries such as South Korea and Chile considering such a policy course.

• Regulations to cut pollution from specific sectors such as vehicles, buildings and power stations are gaining momentum in the United States, China, the EU, and Canada.

• Investors are recognising that the physics of climate science require carbon budgets that must leave vast fossil fuel resources unused without carbon capture and storage.

• The number of countries with renewable energy targets has increased to 138, up from 109 in 2010.

A technician stands outside the fibreglass blade construction facility at Goldwind, a wind turbine factory in Gansu province, China. (Michael Hall, Creative Fellow of The Climate Institute)

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Major policy developments in 2013

Domestic carbon laws are critical confidence building measures as countries continue to make practical progress on detailed international agreement design.

JANUARY California’s emission trading scheme (ETS) faces its first annual emissions cap, set at 162 million tonnes for the power and industrial sectors. United States President Barack Obama lists tackling climate change as one of the top three priorities for his second term. Spain announces its EUR 400 million/year subsidies for coal-fired electricity will end by 2014.

FEBRUARYPresident Obama warns that if Congress does not put a price on carbon, he will use the executive branch of government to cut emissions. Uruguay announces that 93 per cent of its power supply will come from renewable sources by 2015. World Bank President Jim Yong Kim warns G20 that climate change is a “real and present danger”.

MARCHIndia aims to nearly double wind power in five years by installing 15 gigawatts of new power capacity by 2017. China raises its annual carbon target for 2013 (to cut CO2/GDP by 3.7 per cent) after over-achieving its 2012 target. South Africa announces plans for a carbon tax from 2015.

APRILEU Parliament votes against a plan to prop up prices in the bloc’s ETS by withdrawing permits. California confirms it will link its carbon market with Quebec’s from 1 January 2014.

MAYBeijing commits to capping its coal consumption this year at 6 per cent below business-as-usual levels. The World Bank urges nations to scrap fossil fuel subsidies and put a price on carbon. The USA proposes a global requirement for all ships to measure and eventually reduce their energy use.

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Major policy developments in 2013

Domestic carbon laws are critical confidence building measures as countries continue to make practical progress on detailed international agreement design.

JUNEMexico releases a national climate strategy based on market instruments to achieve emission reductions of 30 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020. The US announces it will stop financing most coal-fired power plants abroad and urge other nations and development banks to do the same. US President Obama releases a climate plan including emission limits for power stations and support for energy efficiency and renewable energy. The World Bank announces it will limit financing of coal-fired power plants to “rare circumstances”.

JULYThe EU Parliament votes to prop up carbon prices by reducing permit supply, sending the proposal to member states for approval. The EU Investment Bank announces it will stop financing coal-fired power stations unless they meet emission limits of 550g CO2/kWh. China says it will invest an additional $375 billion by 2015 to cut energy use and pollution.

AUGUSTChina announces it will shut down inefficient energy and industry production capacity worth 2000 megawatts by the end of the year, to meet its energy efficiency targets. China’s Jining city (pop. 8 million) says it is considering a CO2 market to ease pollution. New Zealand lowers its emissions reduction target to 5 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020.

SEPTEMBERThe President of Mexico proposes a carbon tax to help the nation meet its target of curbing emissions by 30 per cent by 2020. France says it will introduce a carbon levy on fuel to fund energy efficiency measures, bring down the costs of renewables and contribute to cutting fossil fuel use by 30 per cent by 2030 and 50 per cent by 2050. The US proposes emission standards for new power plants: large gas-fired turbines could emit no more than 454kg of CO2/MWh, while small gas-fired turbines and new coal units would be limited to no more than 499kg of CO2/ MWh.

OCTOBERThe OECD, IMF and World Bank call on countries to implement appropriate carbon pricing and phase out fossil fuel subsidies.

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Australia’s national interestAustralia is likely to be more adversely impacted by climate change than other comparable countries. This implies that Australia has a stronger interest than most in arguing for deeper and more rapid cuts in global emissions.

Source: CSIRO, Bureau of Met., Climate Commission, Garnaut Review, Climate Analytics

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Australia’s role in building ambitionA clear Australian commitment to decisive emission reductions consistent with avoiding a 2oC increase in global temperature would help to build the confidence and willingness of others to take comparable actions.

International agreement 2020 Emission Reduction Commitment

Treaties

Kyoto Protocol: Doha amendments (2012)(Signed but not ratified)

Minimum binding commitment:0.5% below 1990 levels over the period 2013-2020Review minimum commitment in 2014 

Pledged reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020:–5 to –15% or –25% on 2000 levels

Decisions under treaties

Cancun Agreements (2010)

 

“Australia will reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 25 per cent compared with 2000 levels by 2020 if the world agrees to an ambitious global deal capable of stabilizing levels of GHGs in the atmosphere at 450 ppm carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2 eq) or lower. Australia will unconditionally reduce its emissions by 5 per cent compared with 2000 levels by 2020 and by up to 15 per cent by 2020 if there is a global agreement which falls short of securing atmospheric stabilization at 450 ppm CO2 eq under which major developing economies commit to substantially restraining their emissions and advanced economies take on commitments comparable to Australia’s.”

Political commitments

Copenhagen Accord (2009)Majuro Declaration (2013)

Pledged reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020:–5 to –15% or –25% on 2000 levels

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Australia’s target decisions misaligned

Without a clear view on its final 2020 and possible 2030 ambitions until 2015, Australia will be unable to be able to positively contribute to these international discussions.

FIGURE.Domestic target timetable vs. international processes (2014-2015).Decisions in Italics and dashed connectors are indicative as formal decisions on these processes have not yet been made.

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Warsaw scenarios

While a number of technical decisions are due in Warsaw the importance of the meeting will be more reflective in the political dynamics it creates and sequence of events it sets up as we head towards 2015.

One World: Progressive nations secure a strong timeline for enhanced pre-2020 ambition and new post 2020 emission targets. These nations also offer sufficient assurances to vulnerable countries that long-term financing will be delivered. This counter-balances attempts to weaken progress and achieves positive momentum toward the 2015 agreement.

Old World: Historic North vs South conflicts are inflamed by lack of clear progress on key issues. These include ratification of the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, limited confidence that pledges climate financing will be delivered, and the question of whether and how the most vulnerable nations should be compensated for the climate change damage. This produces a bland outcome and no positive momentum toward the 2015 agreement.

Collapse: Russia or Kazakhstan refuse to adopt the meeting’s agenda until their grievances around how decisions in Doha where taken have been addressed. Vulnerable nations fail to secure a decision on climate damages or ambition that they find acceptable and walk out of the meeting.

The Climate Institute strongly acknowledges the fruitful discussions with and work by E3G upon which these scenarios are based: http://www.e3g.org/

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Complimentary actions to build ambition

Australia’s contribution to building global emission reduction ambitions does not rest solely on our ability to achieve ambitious emission targets or on actions under the banner of the UNFCCC.

Setting domestic examples: Australia’s experiences with domestic policies provide valuable lessons for other countries currently establishing their own systems. Being the first country to potentially remove a carbon limit and price will embolden opponents to emerging carbon markets and prices in places like South Africa and South Korea.

International financing: Australia’s contributions to date have enhanced our credibility within international climate negotiations. A retreat from Australia’s current stance would diminish our influence and provide excuses to others seeking to stall ambitious global action.

HCFs: reduce HFCs domestically in advance of an agreement under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. REDD+: demonstrate the credibility and effectiveness of actions to reduce emissions from deforestation in developing nations (REDD+) by partnering with proven successful project managers to deliver measurable outcomes.

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More information

globalclimateactionmap.climateinstitute.org.au

To find out who’s acting on climate change visit our interactive Global Climate Action Map where you can track and compare country actions.