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The Syrian CrisesPast, Present, Future
Shahid Hussain RajaIndependent Consultant-Public Policy
www.shahidhussainraja.comSeptember 21,2015
Introduction Middle East and Global Politics Nature and Origin of the Present Crises Global/Regional Powers Interests Likely Scenarios Way Forward Conclusion
Sequence
What is happening in Syria is a snapshot of what is happening in the Middle East as a whole.
Several conflicts, crises and wars presently going on in Syria with deep rooted causes have serious implications for regional stability and global security
This presentation explains the nature, background and possible future scenarios of the present Syrian crises and their likely repercussions.
You can read my detailed analysis about this crises in my Amazon EBook by downloading it from my Author page http://www.amazon.com/author/shahid_hussain_raja
Introduction
Middle East, is the cradle of several civilizations and birth place of three world religions
Before discovery of oil, it was not considered worth occupation, Its political significance started with the construction of Suez Canal, discovery of oil, creation of the Zionist state of Israel and escalation of the Cold War
Middle East and Geopolitics
Location-Whatever happens anywhere affect Middle East more than any region. Similarly whatever happens here affects the global politics.
Boundaries-Cartographic blunders of the colonial powers creating arbitrary nation-states with artificial boundaries containing divided loyalties
Resources-Discovery of oil and building of Suez Canal increasing its geo-
economic and geo-political significance.
Ideologies-Creation of Israel and onset of cold war, which introduced ideological conflicts other than religion, making it the playground of the global powers
Modernization-Modernization and globalization, stoking the aspiration of the middle class without providing them adequate channels of expression and empowerment in countries historically governed by authoritarian elites
Underdevelopment-Overall sociopolitical and economic underdevelopment in the backdrop of rapidly increasing population and unemployment, stalled state building and nation building–a legacy of the colonialism and neo colonialism
Middle East-Six Fault lines
Modern Syria(Syrian Arab Republic) , with a total land mass of more than 185,000 sq km is a part of ancient Syria, located at the eastern end of the Mediterranean Sea in southwestern Asia.
It borders with Turkey(north),Iraq(east), Jordan(south) and Israel/Lebanon(west).
Around 1000 Sq km of Syrian territory in Golan Heights is under Israeli occupation. Part of this annexed territory is claimed by Lebanon
Hatay province, currently known as Iskenderun ,is under Turkish suzerainty ,awarded to Turkey by the French occupation forces. Syria does not recognize this occupation
There are two main rivers whose water apportionment is a bone of contention between Turkey and Syria on the one hand and between Syria and Israel on the other
Syria-Geography
Because of its strategic location, Syria has been scene of internal conflicts and external invasions throughout history
It can boast of giving alphabets to the world and home of the oldest Semitic language-Aramaic.
Akkadians gave it the cultural foundations and racial stock- the first dimension of the present crises
Romans introduced the authoritarian governance structure, improved by the Ottomans- second dimension of the crises
Crusades sowed the first seeds of Arab nationalism, the defining feature of modern day Middle East
Islamic conquest introduced three crucial elements-religion, sects and language-the third dimension of the present crises
Syria- Ancient History
Ottoman rule resulted in creating the nationalistic feelings in hitherto diverse communities and invited ,by default, the penetration of European colonial powers-the fourth dimension of the crises
Colonial era gave it the boundaries as well as the oppressive, extractive state apparatus-the fifth dimension of the crises
Post colonial era introduced cold war power politics, ideological conflicts other than religion, resource scramble and non-state violent actors
Syria-Modern History
Syrian population of 25 million growing @2.2 % per annum is creating a huge educated and informed youth bulge, thanks to compulsory primary education and spread of computer literacy.
Life expectancy at 70 years and a literacy rate of above 70 % make it a fairly modern country
Racially,90 % of population is of Arab origin,9 % are Kurds and remaining are Armenians, Turkmans and others
Sectarian/religious divide-75 % are Sunni Muslims, 12% are Alawi Shias,10 % Christians and 3% are Jews, Druze and others
Arabic, the official language is mother tongue of the majority while English and French are understood by the urbanites
Syria-Social Profile
Republic in name, authoritarian in substance, Syria is a microcosm of overall Middle Eastern governance style
Heavy dominance of armed forces and security agencies in policy formulation and implementation
These institutions have over representation of Alawi Shias who are only 12% of population
Limited powers of 250 members strong uni-chamber legislature, elected by universal suffrage of 18 years
Centralized governance structure with one party rule although 08 parties are represented in National Alliance
Freedom of expression if you do not speak against the government
Syria-Political Profile
1967 War, when Israel finally established its supremacy in the Middle East, annexed vast Arab territories including Golan Heights and displaced millions of Palestinians from their homeland, can be conveniently taken as the starting point of origins of the present Syrian crises
1973 war resulted in Egypt and Jordan concluding separate peace treaties, isolating Syria which blamed Egypt for treachery and vowed to continue the struggle against Israeli hegemony
It also exposed the vulnerability of US and its allies in terms of their overdependence on Middle East oil and necessitated establishing Israel as a regional power, protecting friendly Arab states and ousting USSR as one of the active players in ME-main drivers of present crises
Present Crises-Origins
Fall of Shah of Iran and the rise of anti American ruling elite in Iran with threats of exporting anti Arab version of Islam added another dimension to the jigsaw puzzle
It became more complicated by the rise of Taliban in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of USSR and concentration of anti west militants there
Fall of Saddam and of Taliban in Afghanistan resulted in an unintended but crucial consequence- emergence of Iran as one of the regional powers and the main rival of Israel in the Middle East, to challenge American hegemony
It was decided by USA and her allies that before sorting out Iran, it is necessary to fix its allies namely Syria and Hezbollah which may pose any threat to Israel when the final assault is made on nuclear ambitious Iran
Present Crises-Origins
Ideological Clash-Wider global ideological clash between capitalism and anti-capitalist forces
Regional Hegemony-War among aspirants of regional hegemony using different factions as proxies
Arab Spring-Public aspirations for good governance, empowerment and better quality of life
New cold war- among two old power blocks with China as a new entrant
Resource Scramble-Scramble for water, hydrocarbon and other resources
Ethno-religious Conflicts-Centuries old ethnic, religious and sectarian conflicts adding fuel to the fire by the non state violent actors
Nationalism-Nationalistic aspirations of suppressed and divided communities for self determination
7 Dimensions of Syrian Crises
Regime change with replacement of a pro-west and not an overtly anti-Israel government in Syria
Neutralizing Syria as a military force in ME and destruction of its chemical weapons to pave way for Israeli hegemony
Resource denial to China
Expulsion of Russia from Syria, its last outpost in Middle East as well as its military base
Reducing threat of international terrorism to USA/West
Neutralizing Hezbollah as a threat by cutting its supply routes before taking on Iran-the final threat to Israel
USA/Europe
Maintaining its military bases and influence in its last outpost in Middle East
Enhancing credibility of new Russia, inheritor of Soviet Empire, as a defender of its friends
New cold war, checking American hegemony
Stopping ‘regime change dramas’ which might be enacted in its sphere of influence or in Russia itself
Keeping ME in turmoil to keep the oil prices high and ensuring Europe relies on Russia for its energy needs
Russian Interests
Presently China is only interested to ensure its resource security
However it is worried about the creeping total hegemony of the Middle East by the USA particularly after Libyan fiasco
It is also interested to flex its muscle and to be taken seriously as a future global power
Also interested that USA and NATO forces are bogged down in another conflict in a far off battleground rather than pestering her near home
Chinese Interests
Regime replacement with a friendly Sunni regime
Countering Iran ,its old rival in ME since millennia
Flexing its muscles as a regional power
Prelude to its entry to EU
Settling three issues in one shot-water dispute, Hatay annexation and Kurdish question
Turkish interests
Asserting its regional hegemony by destroying one of the best fighting forces in ME and destroying its chemical weapons armory
Finishing pro-Iranian regime before sorting out Iran
Securing its security by fixing the main supporter of anti Israel militant groups in ME i.e. Hezbollah by cutting off the land route of Iranian assistance to them
Regime change to have a neutral if not pro Israeli government in Syria, who would conclude separate peace treaty with Israel like Egypt and Jordan
Sorting out three strategic issues in one go-Golan Heights, water apportionment and Palestinian question
Israeli interests
Sectarian affinity with Shia regime, one which sided with her during Iran-Iraq War
Safeguarding its flanks by providing assistance to its militant outposts in Lebanon and Gaza through the only land route open to her via Syria
Countering USA and Israel-its main foes
Asserting its hegemony in ME- centuries' old rivalry with Turkey and Saudi Arabia
Ensuring that western forces land in Syria and get bogged down there instead of sorting Iran out
Iranian Interests
Regime change-having a Sunni regime in a predominantly Sunni society
Countering Iran-the Shia and the rival
Fixing Shias,to contain its own restive Shia community and appease its own Salafi clergy
Siding with its old American/Western friends
Old tribal war ,clad in sectarian colour
Saudi Arabia
Assad dug in with the help of internal tribal alliances, armed forces and security apparatus support within Syria
Externally, propped up due to diplomatic assistance by China which
do not want to repeat the Libyan fiasco while Russia is providing full support to Assad- intelligence, weapons and finance
Iran-physical support through Hamas and Hezbollah, weapons and finances and intelligence, encouraging Kurds to outflank Turkey
Russia, China and Iran are interested to prolong the fighting, necessitating attack by NATO forces as it will give them some respite from American machinations in their respective spheres of influence and control as well as draining out USA energy
Present Situation
USA and its allies are not interested in sending their troops in Syria as it will result in full scale war which may bog them down for a year or so, delaying their ultimate aim of fixing Iran
Third war front against an Arab state will not go well with their allies in the Middle East, turning many of the footloose Jihadists against NATO forces, instead of their cooperation in war against Iran
USA is trying to oust Assad by supporting rebels i.e. foreign forces, state as well as non-state, from every source by providing intelligence ,weapons and finance, preparing for all out attack once the regime shows signs of weakness, UNO or no UNO
Present Situation
Stalemate -business as usual, more of the same
Violent Overthrow of Assad regime by the rebels with the help of foreign forces
Voluntary abdication of Assad as a result of UNO or friendly selloff by Russia/Iran
Last scenario is now becoming a reality as USA and her allies will give concessions to Russia on Ukraine after Russian open support to Assad
Possible Scenarios
Negotiated settlement through the auspicious of UNO and backed by regional and global powers
Withdrawal of all foreign forces, disbanding of armed groups and destruction of chemical weapons
Voluntary abdication of Assad and formation of an interim government to suitably amend the constitution
Holding of elections by independent election commission supervised
by the international observers
Launching of Marshall Plan style development package to rehabilitee the economy
Start of comprehensive Middle East peace package
Way Forward
Syria’s social composition, economic underdevelopment and political governance in the backdrop of regional alignments is the root cause of present crises
These have been aggravated by the onslaught of Arab Spring, Iranian ambitions for nuclear parity with Israel and resource scramble
There is an urgent need to amicably solve the Syrian Crises by the world powers as the situation is getting out of control
Regime change by force will result in state collapse by default, resulting in civil war which will invite regional powers and may result in full scale war and ultimately Balkanization of the country which is already showing signs of tearing at the seams
Resultant economic mayhem, social unrest, capital flight, brain drain and flood of internally displaced refugees will make the situation even worse
Conclusion
Thank you for viewing the presentation.
If you have liked it, may I request you to kindly download its EBook version on your computer/tablet for only US $3.05
It is available at the following URL http://www.amazon.com/author/shahid_hussain_raja
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