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Ebooks have had false starts before but there are solid reasons to believe that they’re now well and truly on their way. Digital Publishing Forum NZ Director Martin Taylor provides some background to the ebook hype, explains some jargon, highlights some trends and opportunities, and updates you on the latest digital publishing developments internationally and in New Zealand.
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The Rise and Fall and Rise of Ebooks
Martin TaylorDigital Publishing Forum
digitalpublishing.org.nz
Thanks to our sponsors
What we'll cover
The drivers of the industry today
Why the rise of ebooks will be different this time
Where’s the money?
Some (almost) free things to get you started today
The technology drivers1971 – ebook 'invented' by Michael Hart, Project Gutenberg
1978 - PC
1992 - 'Web 1.0'
1999-2002 – ‘Year of the ebook’
2004 - Web 2.0
Now – wider trends will drive ebook adoption
Smartphones – Apple, Google Android, Blackberry, Palm
Mobile Web
Cloud computing and decline of PC
New screen technologies and device types
Ebook readers todayAmazon Kindle 2(approx 500,000 sold,USA only)
Sony Reader (400,000 sold,US, UK)
Apple iPhone / iPod Touch(30 million soldIn 80 countries)
Books feature strongly in iPhone App store downloads
4th by downloadsWeek of
1 March 09
Coming up
Fujitsu FLEPia colour ‘e-paper mobile terminal’
Plastic LogicLarge e-ink displays due mid-2009 with wireless, touchscreen
E-ink can be printed onto
flexible surfaces
Netbooks may become a viable reading platform
Technology adoption lifecycle
Rogers bell curve
Source: New York Times 10 Feb 2008
US consumer technology adoption
Two markets for e-reading• Short, casual reading
• Longer reading, in-depth, immersed experience
• Amazon targets these two markets with its Kindle strategy
– Kindle ebook reader, Kindle for iPhone
• E-reading doesn't have to be better than paper, just better for some situations
• Casual reading market opportunity is immediately available in NZ
In summary: Reasons it will be different this time
Reading technology will be good enough Wireless web Likely format standard - ePub Experience from the false start in early 2000s Amazon
and Sony .. and Apple .. and Google ..
.. Which means ... Readers will demand ebooks
How will things change?Some thoughts from TOC ‘09
Readers• 'reading is becoming a social act' - Peter Brantley, Digital
Library Federation, NY
Publishers• must become more reader-centric• 'community builder'• primacy of reader’s positive experience
• “how can we make this the best possible experience for the reader?”
• but key publisher role remains to screen, improve, finance, sell, distribute, nurture
Where's the money?Less than 1% of trade sales in US
But readers are paying
Books are 100% 'paid content'
Mobile users have been conditioned to pay
But opportunities to monetise a bigger market
Pass-along readers = more buyers
More opportunities to read = more readers
Global market opportunity
Where's the money?US wholesale ebook revenues
December 2008 quarter +100% vs prior year
Source: idpf.org
How the price of an ebook is set
• Based on 'p-book'
• Cost-plus
• Marginal costing
• Market-based – optimise price/volume equation based on buyer behaviour
• Price taker, eg from dominant retailer
• Other models – subscription, 'literature as service', by chapter, loss-leader for p-book, advertising-supported
How much should the ebook edition of a $30 paper book cost?
More than $30
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
Less than $5
Free
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
% respondents (n=78)
Source: Digital Publishing Forum: digitalpublishing.org.nz – online poll conducted February-March 2009
Where's the money – Getting started Don't over-invest in the start-up Do start early
The cheapest time to buy marketshare is early in a market
Pace yourself – it will take longer than you think Use time to reduce capital needed
Simple steps you can take today Buy an iPhone or iPod Touch ($389)
Install Stanza and start reading Publish and sell your first ebook(s)
smashwords.com or calibre (calibre.kovidgoyal.net) Get your digital rights in order – share of net income? Join a social network and see how they work
facebook.com, linkedin.com, twitter.com Keep learning
Martin's eReport blog – activitypress.com/ereport Mark your diary: Future of the Book / Future of the
Book in Education conference, Auckland 24-25 June
Thanks!
Martin Taylor
web: digitalpublishing.org.nz
email: [email protected]
blog: activitypress.com/ereport
