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Mihaylo Milovanovitch OECD Directorate for Education 3rd Congress on Innovation Porto Alegre, 18 November 2010
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The Future of Higher EducationFour OECD Scenarios
Mihaylo MilovanovitchOECD Directorate for Education
3rd Congress on InnovationPorto Alegre, 18 November 2010
Outline
• OECD – an overview
• A glance on some trends
• Higher Education to 2030 – project and research outline
• Four OECD scenarios
OECD – an overview The Future of Higher Education
34 OECD MembersAustralia (1971) Hungary (1996) Poland (1996)
Austria (1961) Iceland (1961) Portugal (1961)
Belgium (1961) Ireland (1961) Slovak Republic (2000)
Canada (1961) Israel (2010) Slovenia (2010)
Chile (2010) Italy (1961) Spain (1961)
Czech Republic (1995) Japan (1964) Sweden (1961)
Denmark (1961) Korea (1996) Switzerland (1961)
Estonia (2010) Luxemburg (1961) Turkey (1961)
Finland (1969) Mexico (1994) United Kingdom (1961)
France (1961) Netherlands (1961) United States of America (1961)
Germany (1961) New Zealand (1973)
Greece (1961) Norway (1961)
Policy areas for co-operation
1998PISA countries in
20002001200320062009Coverage of world economy 77%81%83%85%86%87%
An overview
OECD Directorate for Education
Selected Trends The Future of Higher Education
Credits: SCBWI
%
1. Excluding ISCED 3C short programmes 2. Year of reference 2004
3. Including some ISCED 3C short programmes 3. Year of reference 2003.
10
1
1
29
Selected Trends
A world of change in the global skill supplyEvolution of school completion
Approximated by % of persons with high school or equivalent qualfications in the age groups 55-64, 45-55, 45-44 und 25-34 years
37
35
Selected Trends
Tertiary educational attainment of 25-64 population (%)
OECD (2008): Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography
Selected Trends
How the demand of skills has changedEconomy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US)
(Levy and Murnane)Mean t
ask
inp
ut
as
perc
enti
les
of
th
e 1
960 t
ask
dis
trib
uti
on
Selected Trends
Excellence in education and countries’ research intensity
Percentage of students at Levels 5 or 6 in the PISA assessment
Selected Trends
Projected Tertiary Enrolments in 2025 under Recent Trends (2005=100)
OECD (2008): Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography
Selected Trends
Demographic Shape of Tertiary Education in the Future
Source: OECD (2009)
Graduate education
Continuing education
First degree First degree
Graduate education
Continuing education
Selected Trends
Evolution of share of private HE enrollments 1970-2006
Source: OECD (2009)
Selected Trends
Increase in the Number of Foreign Students Worldwide and Projections
Source: OECD (2009)
Project and Research OutlineThe Future of Higher Education
Project and Research Outline
Long-term Policy Planning
Although long term thinking in education is important, educational policy making is often done with a short term
perspective.
Selected forward looking OECD projects:– Schooling for Tomorrow– Future of Higher Education – University
Futures– Innovation Strategy– AHELO Project
Project and Research Outline
A Brief Overview• Objectives
– Feed strategic reflection on major questions– Highlight past developments and recent changes– Underline future opportunities and challenges from an
international standpoint
• Main types of activity1. Thematic trends analysis2. Dialogue with stakeholders and experts – basis for the:
> Thematic reports > Future scenarios
NB: International standpoint as a special feature
Project and Research Outline
Higher Education to 2030 Series
• Vol. 1: Demography (2008)• Vol. 2: Globalisation (2009)• Vol. 3: Technology (forthcoming)• Vol. 4: Scenarios
(forthcoming)
Four OECD Scenarios The Future of Higher Education
OECD Scenarios
University Futures – Scenarios
• Scenarios are not predictions of the future…
• They are largely rooted in the present...
• And try to balance relevance and imagination
OECD Scenarios
University Futures - Scenarios
Open networking
Serving local communities
New public responsibility
Higher education, Inc.
OECD Scenarios
Scenario 1 – Open NetworkingMain features
• Global, harmonized higher education systems
• Personalised, more interactive teaching
• Shared language (English as lingua franca)
• Research is collaborative, but partnerships are determined by institutional prestige
• Free and better access to knowledge and research
What could make this scenario happen?
• Harmonisation of higher education systems • Lower costs of communication and transportation • Spread of the ideal of open knowledge .
Related developments in the present
Bologna Process in Europe; increased mobility; cheap and accessible computing power and communications; a culture of openness regarding intellectual property rights
Main features
• Universities are focused on national, regional and/or local missions
• Mainly publicly funded and administered systems
• Streghtened financial support from local entities
• Academics are trusted professionals with teaching as their central objective
• Convergence between universities and polytechnics
What could make this scenario happen?
• Anti-globalisation movements • Scepticism in the public regarding internationalisation• Emergence of geo-strategic concerns
Related developments in the present
Migration is a problematic issue in many countries; growing anti-globalisation movement based on economic and cultural grounds; social responsibility of universities is more and more in the policy debate
OECD Scenarios
Scenario 2 – Serving Local Communities
Main features
• Public funding, autonomy of institutions , yet with greater use of ‘new public management’ tools
• Diversified funding sources
• Strong public accountability, but also more private reward systems
• National competition for public research funding
What could make this scenario happen?
• Mounting budget pressures and rising public debt• Diversification of stakeholders, caused by diversification of funding
Related developments in the present
General quest for accountability, transparency, efficiency and effectiveness in public management; Increasing institutional autonomy in many countries ; Cost-sharing and raising tuition fees increasingly under debate; Increasingly competitive research funding
OECD Scenarios
Scenario 3 – New Public Responsibility
Main features
• Institutions competing globally on a commercial basis
• Public funding exclusively to non-commercially viable disciplines
• Strong competition for students with English as a key language of study
• Disconnection of research and teaching according to competitive advantage
• Concentration of research with worldwide competition for funding
What could make this scenario happen?
• Trade liberalisation in education (GATS of the WTO)
• Low transportation and communication costs,
• Rise in private funding
Related developments in the present
Trade in higher education and inclusion of it in trade negotiations; Increasing international mobility of students and cross-border higher education; Increase of cross-border funding of research and private research activities
OECD Scenarios
Scenario 4 – Higher Education Inc.
Serving Local Communities
International
National
MarketDemand-driven
AdministrationSupply-driven
Open Networking Higher Education Inc.
New Public Responsibility
OECD Scenarios
Four Scenarios for Higher Education Systems
