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London's population growth is projected to be large over the coming years. This presentations outlines some of the latest statistics and discusses implications particularly for housing.
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Update on the Demography of London
LSE Lent Seminar Series 20134th March 2013
Ms Baljit Bains
Outline
Update on Demographic trends in London
Outline of current estimates and projections
2011 Census Snapshot
London Births 1965 to 2010
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
Birth
s
Fertility rates 2000/2 to 2008/10
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.1415 a
nd u
nder
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
43
45
47
49 a
nd o
ver
Age
Fert
ilit
y r
ate
2000-022008-10
Top boroughs – birth increase/decrease
Top 3 boroughs (% increase):– Croydon: 7.0% or 371 births– Southwark: 6.8% or 329 births– Brent: 6.1% or 310 births
Top 3 boroughs (% decrease):– Richmond upon Thames: -2.9% or -88 births– Hackney: -2.1% or -95 births– Camden: -1.7% or -53 births
London: Internal migration
UK: International migration
NINo registrations: Bulgaria and Romania
Population Estimates and Projections
ONS projections released over the last two years has led to significant upwards revisions of projected future populations.
1) Changes to international migration methodologyONS 2010 Based Sub National Population
Projections (SNPP)
2) 2011 Census population – 8.17 millionONS 2011 Based Interim SNPP2011 Census Average Household Size increase
Estimates and Projections 2001-2011
7,000
7,100
7,200
7,300
7,400
7,500
7,600
7,700
7,800
7,900
8,000
8,100
8,200
8,300
8,400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Th
ou
san
ds
Year
Pop
ulat
ion
2008-based SNPP
GLA 2011rnd SHLAA
Indicative MYE/2010-based SNPP
Official MYE
2012 Round demographic projections:Greater London
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Mil
lio
ns
Year
To
tal
po
pu
lati
on
ONS 2008 based SNPP (w MYE to 2008)
ONS 2010 based SNPP (w Indicative MYE 2006 to 2010)
ONS 2011 based SNPP
GLA 2011 round SHLAA
GLA 2012 round Trend
GLA 2012 round SHLAA
2010 SNPP migration assumptions
-150000
-100000
-50000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Age
Nu
mb
er Out
In
Net
2010 SNPP migration assumptions
-150000
-100000
-50000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Age
Nu
mb
er Out
In
NetCrash
Where were the problems…..
– 2001 Census enumeration Likely underestimation of the London population and then subsequent mid-year estimates (MYE). Any underestimate in the 2001 baseline that both ONS and the GLA utilised would have carried through into subsequent years. The extent of the undercount may prove impossible to estimate with any accuracy.
– Underestimation of international inflows
The methodology ONS used for assigning international in-migrants between local authorities underestimated for London as a whole.
– Underestimation of average household size by government sourcesHousehold formation rates from DCLG household projections assumed declining average household size.
Forecasts: Out with the old…
Average Household Size future trends– Rethink declining AHS trend particularly in the
short term
More sophisticated trend based assumptions– Rethink fertility scenarios– Rethink migration scenarios
(Possible) household size scenarios
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Year
Av
era
ge
Ho
us
eh
old
Siz
e
Census
2011rnd projection
High
Medium
Low
(Possible) migration scenario
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Year
Flo
w
Out
In
Net
Crash
Recovery
2011 Census: London
Population: 8.17 million usual residents Households: 3.27million, an increase of 8.3%
since 2001. Over 36% born outside the UK (cf 27% in 2001) Four London boroughs where less than half
population is UK born– Brent (44.9 per cent), – Newham (46.3 per cent), – Westminster (46.7 per cent) and – Kensington & Chelsea (48.4 per cent)
Country of Birth
Migrants: Less than 2 years length of stay (%)
Migrants: More than 10 years length of stay (%)
Housing Tenure
Percentage change 2001 to 2011: Owns with a mortgage or loan
Housing in London
In London between 2001 and 2011 the number of houses and bungalows rose by 1.8 per cent (28,700) while the number of flats increased by 18.6 per cent (277,500).
The number of dwellings in Tower Hamlets increased by nearly 33 % in the same period 2001- 2011. The largest proportional increase in London
London is by far the most over-crowded region in England & Wales with 11.6 per cent of households having too few bedrooms for their occupants.
London Boroughs make up 19 of the top 20 most overcrowded local authorities in England & Wales.
The highest being Newham (25.4 per cent), Brent (18 per cent) and Tower Hamlets (16.8 per cent.
Religion
Languages in London
74 per cent of households in London contain occupants who all have English as their main language, compared to 91 per cent nationally.
22.1 per cent of Londoners list a language other than English as their main language, a total of 1.73 million people
41.6 per cent of non-English speakers in England & Wales live in London
Polish is the main language of 147,800 of the capital’s residents Bengali is the most spoken Asian language in London while Somali
is the most spoken African language In Newham 41.4 per cent of residents report a language other than
English as their main language In Havering just 4.6 per cent list a language other than English 9 of the top 10 most linguistically diverse local authorities in
England & Wales are in London
Main non-English Languages in London
Proportion of Households where English is not the main language of occupants
Limiting Long-term IllnessPercentage Change 2001 - 2011
Next releases of Census data
Starting May 2013 - Detailed Characteristics (multivariate) at local authority level, followed by MSOA and Ward geographies,
Local Characteristics data will now be Release 4 (summer).
More details of the exact timings of these releases are expected in April.
Follow up
http://data.london.gov.uk/census/secondrelease
Contact details:email: [email protected]: 07554018664
