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My keynote address to the 2014 NERCOMP conference. The first half surveyed trends in technology and education, while the second presented several scenarios.
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The Calm between Two Storms
Glimpsing the
Future of Education
and Technolog
y-
NERCOMP
2014
Plan:
1. Current and developing trends
2. Several possible futures
Spoiler alert!
Collaboration Social media Futures thinking Being open Attention to generations
Between two waves?After the Web’s first generation: Campus Web
presence The LMS The ERP Library-IT
ententes Desktops to
BYOD
Grappling with the future
Grappling with the future
Monthly environmental scan report
Trends identified, tested, projected
FTTE reports, January-December 2013
Education trends
More international students heading to the US
Non-US higher ed systems building up
Education trends
Northeast, midwest youth population vs debt
Alternative certification (competency, badges)
US job changes (manufact->service, 1->many, declining participation, automation)
Enrollment decline?
Education trends
Adjunctification rising
Athletics are doing just fine
Weaker .edu trendlines
shared academic services executive compensation
rising amid controversy challenges to internships possible intergenerational
tensions library budgets
Technology trends
digital video
cloud wars
augmented reality
automation and artificial intelligence
Technology trends
social media triumphing
Technology trends
crowdfunding growing copyright battles continue durability of Moore’s Law office versus Web office
Technology ecosystem
Beyond the PC
"When we were an agrarian nation, all cars were trucks because that's what you needed on the farms." Cars became more popular as cities rose, and things like power steering and automatic transmission became popular…
"PCs are going to be like trucks," Jobs said. "They are still going to be around." However, he said, only "one out of x people will need them."
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13860_3-20006526-56.html ; image via Wikipedia
Design for mobile *first *
PCs getting crowded out
Mouse and keyboard declining
3d printing mainstreaming
3d tv dying
Weaker tech trendlines
the limits of the Web
onshoring hardware production
Are ebooks about to plateau?
Nicholas Carr, linked http://bryanalexander.org/2013/08/15/have-ebooks-plateaued/
Teaching and learning and tech
Teaching and learning and tech
blended/flipped classroom
rise of the net.generation
gaming in education
Teaching and learning and tech
educational entrepreneurship
big data and data analytics develop
campus digital security threats growing
Uses of social media
Uses of Web video
Changes in the LMS world
Blended learning
Learning analytics
Changes in library role
Digital humanities (in classroom)
The rise of the Maker movement
MOOCs
Credit for MOOCs STEM vs humanities Sustainability? xMOOC vs cMOOC Liberal arts campuses entering
Changes in scholarship
Open content Possible divide growing
between research and teaching
Changes to the scholarly publication ecosystem
Rise of the digital humanities (as scholarly work)
The library role
A higher education bubble?
Continued cost/value crisis Student and parent anxieties
about debt and employment Grad school crises Bipartisan political pressure
Perhaps not
College premium persists
Debt closer to car ownership
Endowments returning, maybe (11%+ in 2013)
Delphi
Assemble experts
Probe for opinions
Rank and distill ideas
Reiterate
Horizon trends, 2014
Selected trends: Ubiquitous social media
Integration of online + offline teaching
Horizon trends, 2014
Time-to-Adoption Horizon: One Year or Less Flipped Classroom Learning Analytics
Horizon trends, 2014
Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Two to Three Years 3D Printing Games and Gamification
Horizon trends, 2014
Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Four to Five Years Quantified Self Virtual Assistants
Scenarios Stories about futures Event and response Creativity
Roles and times Emergent practices
and patterns
Scenarios to consider
1. Fall of the Silos2. Phantom University3. The Renaissance4. The Old Guard’s
Revenge
1. Fall of the Silos
Open…
ContentTeaching
AccessSource
Good things Global conversations increase, filter bubble pops
More access, more information
Lots of creativity
Good things on campus Information prices drop Faculty creativity, flexibility grow
IT “ “ “ Academic content unleashed on the world
Not so good things
Industries collapse Authorship mysterious Some low quality tech (videoconf.)
Some higher costs More malware + less privacy
How does this impact campuses?
Tech challenges Outsourcing and offshoring
PLE beats LMS Crowdsourcing faculty work
Information literacy central
Internet has always been open
Web <> money Online identity has always been fictional, playful
II: Phantom university
Post-tsunami Schools are rare and distant
Information is plentiful and nearby
The bubble burst
http://research.studentclearinghouse.org/files/TermEnrollmentReport-Spring2013.pdf
Learning
Information on demand
Instructors, peers “ “ Grading outsourced Multimedia: social, personalized
Institutions Function: content supplements
Faculty: adjunct rōnin
Accreditation: online, multiple, display-based
Institutions Library: media production camp
Professional development: via social media
MOOCs?
MOOCs?
No, MOOCsNo good categorical name:
…which sometimes indicates the future
Students spent more time in K-12 with online classes than face-to-face ones
K-12 as social center, working parent support spaces
Libraries are software Buildings without AR look
naked
III. Renaissance
Gaming world
Classroom and courses Curriculum content Delivery mechanism Creating games
Peacemaker, Impact Games
Revolution (via Jason Mittell)
• Joost Raessens and Jeffrey Goldstein, eds, Handbook of Computer Game Studies (MIT, 2005)
• Frans Mayra, An Introduction to Game Studies (Sage, 2008)
• Pat Harrigan and Noah Wardrip-Fruin, eds. Third Person: Authoring and Exploring Vast Narratives (MIT, 2009)
Game studies as academic field
How is gaming used now?
Some impacts on campuses
Changes in hardware, software
Part of undergraduate life Learning content, both informal and formal
Career paths
Higher education landscape: Accreditation: drives project-
based, studio-style pedagogy Libraries: gaming production,
archiving Professional development:
distance, DiY Faculty multimedia production
is the norm
Most students identified with one+ game characters in K-12
Leading game developers are as well known as movie directors
Most of their work and school is gamified
IV. The Old Guard’s Revenge
How it happened
Economic growth returns to US (energy, medical, nanotech vs world)
17-22-year-old niche revitalized (K-12 failure)
Full-time faculty stabilize (AAUP-ALA strike)
Digital tech firewalled from class (i.e., tv + film)
Higher education landscape: Supplemental rather than
transformative tech Logistical instead of
pedagogical tech Academics include tech in
old structures (classes, publication)
Reconfigured to protect IP
18-year-olds were .ppt proficient by 5th grade
Schools <> digital life They find their parents’ recollections of life before the web are oddly charming
Scenarios to consider
1. Fall of the Silos2. Phantom University3. The Renaissance4. The Old Guard’s
Revenge
Back to the future
Collaboration Social media Futures thinking Being open Attention to generations
The bloghttp://bryanalexander.org
On the Twittershttp://twitter.com/BryanAlexander