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Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli
Applied MathematicsSINTEF ICT
June 29, 2010
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Outline
1 Motivation
2 MethodologyTheory
3 Real application: ForecastingNestingValidation
4 Special Analysis: Alta AirportHaugesund AirportKristiansund AirportAlta Airport
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Incidents and accidents
On 11 March 1982, Widerøe Flight 933, operated by the Twin Otter LN-BNKcrashed into the Barents Sea near Gamvik, on route from Berlevag Airport toMehamn Airport. All investigations have concluded that the crash resulted fromstructural failure of the aircraft’s tail caused by severe clear-air turbulence.
On 12 April 1990, Widerøe Flight 839, operated by a Twin Otter, crashed into theseas one minute after take-off from Værøy Airport, killing all five on board. Thecause of the crash had been strong and unpredictable wind gusts during take-off,which had exceeded the plane’s limits and created a break-up in the plane’s tailrudder, so the plane became uncontrollable.
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Hammerfest Airport: 1 May 2005
On 1 May 2005, the Widerøe Dash-8-100 airplane LN-WIK was buffeted by strongwinds upon landing, and the landing gear on the right wing collapsed. While severalpassengers sustained injuries, there were no fatalities in the incident, but theNorwegian Civil Aviation Authority imposed the strictest wind regulations in Norwayupon the airport.
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Amsterdam, Geneva, Paris, Frankfurt
Flat terrain
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Norwegian airports
Characterized by fjords, hills, mountains, valleys resulting in rotors, mountain wavesetc. ...
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Theory
Governing Equations
∇ · (ρsu) = 0 (1)
DuDt
= −∇(
pd
ρs
)+ g
θd
θs+
1ρs∇ · R + f (2)
DθDt
= ∇ · (γT∇θ) + q (3)
DKDt
= ∇ · (νT∇K ) + Pk + Gθ − ε (4)
DεDt
= ∇ ·(νT
σe∇ε)
+ (C1Pk + C3Gθ)ε
k− C2
ε2
k(5)
SIMRA: Semi IMplicit Reynolds AveragedStructured version for forecastingUnstructured version for special analysis
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Theory
Boundary Conditions (for special analysis)
u0(z) =u∗
κ
(ln
zz0
+ W( z
D
))(6)
K (z) = C−1/2µ u2
∗
(1−
zD
)(7)
270 275 280 285 290potential temperature (K)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
z(m
)
Potential temperature profile for StableStratification
For forecasting: Nesting with Bigger scale model (UM1)
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Theory
Terrain induced shear
du
dx
du
dz
L = 12 CLρinf(|U − Vp|)2
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Theory
Effect of horizontal and vertical shear
Horizontal shear Vertical shear
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Theory
Safety Analysis
F = −cg∂u∂x
+wc
`f
= −c
g`f[u(x + `f /2− u(x − `f /2)t] +
w`f
c(8)
ε1/3 ≈((C1/2µ K )3/2
`t
)1/3
≈ 0.67K 1/2`−1/3t (9)
c is the fly path, g gravitational acceleration u is the wind component along the fly path,w vertical wind component, ε turbulent dissipation, K turbulent kinetic energy `tturbulent length scale `f minimum response distance for landing configuration and is ofthe order of ∼ 500 m, Prevalence of the two conditions F < −0.1 andε1/3 > 0.5 m2/3s−1 correnspond to severe turbulence for commercial aircrafts andrepresent potential danger. These conditions are easily met when
√K > 3 ms−1.
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Nesting
Nesting: HIRLAM12− > HIRLAM8− > UM4− > UM1− > SIMRA
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Validation
Brønnøysund
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Validation
Evenes
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Validation
Fordes
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Validation
Hammerfast
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Validation
Honnigsvag
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Validation
Mosjøen
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Validation
Ørsta-Volda
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Validation
Narvik
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Validation
Sandane
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Validation
Værnes
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Validation
Right tool for the right job
So ... Downscaling does not always work. Use an appropriate model to resolveinteresting scales
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Haugesund Airport
Haugesund Airport
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Haugesund Airport
Special Analysis: Haugesund airport
Located on the west side of the islandand municipality of Karmøy, southwestof Haugesund.
Operated by Avinor since 1975
Scandinavian Airlines, Norwegian AirShuttle.
Runway dimension: 2120 m × 45 m.
Elevation of 86 m above mean sealevel
The airport had 514, 947 passengersin 2007
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Haugesund Airport
Haugesund: Windrose
Spring
Summer
Autumn
WinterThe airport is not bothered by intense turbulence. Uneven side wind from the SSW andsometimes from the north, with strength 13m/s or more, can provide turbulentconditions on the final
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Haugesund Airport
Haugesund: Terrain and Mesh
Terrain in the vicinity of the Haugesundairport
300 × 300 times 40 mesh
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Haugesund Airport
√K = 3 contours for free stream velocity of 30 m/s
α = 60o
α = 120o
α = 90o
α = 150o
No potentialdanger.Turbulent zonesare located faraway from theairport.
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Haugesund Airport
√K contour along the fly path
α = 60o
α = 120o
α = 90o
α = 150o
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Haugesund Airport
Haugesund:√
K contours and velocity field projected on the conecontaining the gliding path for a free stream velocity of 20 m/s
α = 60o
α = 90o
α = 120o
α = 150oAdil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Kristiansund Airport
Kristiansand Airport
Braathens SAFE Boeing after landing accident 1977-10-31Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Kristiansund Airport
Sample Application: Kristiansand Airport (Kjevik)
Situated 4.3 NM (8.0 km) north-east ofthe city Kristiansand, Vest-Agder insouthern Norway
The airport serves the Agder districtwith domestic and international flights.
The airport is operated by Avinor.
Surrounded by water on three sidesand hills on the fourth
Vigorous turbulence is experienced forNorthwesterly wind
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Kristiansund Airport
Kjevik: Mesh and Terrain
300× 300× 40 meshResolution: 50− 200 mDomain size:30 km × 30 km × 3 km
β
β is the gliding angle
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Kristiansund Airport
Turbulent Kinetic Energy along the surface of the cone
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Kristiansund Airport
3-D Velocity Field for α = 240o
Flow channelizes through the valleys
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Kristiansund Airport
3-D Velocity Field for α = 320o
Flow ascends up the mountain
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Kristiansund Airport
3-D√
K contours for α = 320o
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Kristiansund Airport
3-D√
K contours for α = 320o
These plots are for free stream velocity of 20 m/s√K scales with this velocity
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Alta Airport
Alta
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Alta Airport
Special Analysis: Alta airport
Situated 4km northeast of the towncenter of Alta on a plain where AltaRiver flows in the fjord
2, 088 m long runway
Operated by Avinor.
334, 132 passengers served in 2009(busiest in Finnmark)
Provision for wind and turbulencemeasurement on Komsa hill (200m)
SAS, Norwegian
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Alta Airport
Alta: Terrain
For 20− 25m/s wind speed strong turbulence is experienced. Wind from SSW to NWis most problematic.
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Alta Airport
Alta: Windrose
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Winter
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Alta Airport
Alta: Terrain and Mesh
Terrain in the vicinity of Alta airport andgliding plane
300 × 300 times 40 mesh
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Alta Airport
Turbulent Kinetic Energy along the surface of the cone
α = 60o
α = 120o
α = 90o
α = 300o
Severeturbulence forα = 60o andα = 90o
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Alta Airport
Turbulent Kinetic Energy along the fly path
α = 60o
α = 120o
α = 90o
α = 300o
Severeturbulence forα = 60o andα = 90o
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Alta Airport
Alta:√
K = 3 contours for free stream wind speed of 30m/s
α = 60o
α = 90o
α = 120o
α = 300o
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Alta Airport
Alta: Effects of Stratification
Ua = 10m/s,Fr = 1.0
Ua = 15m/s,Fr = 1.5
Ua = 18m/s,Fr = 1.8
Ua = 20m/s,Fr = 2.0Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Alta Airport
Alta: Effects of Stratification and Komsa hill
Ua = 10m/s,Fr = 1.0 Ua = 15m/s,Fr = 1.5
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Alta Airport
Thank you
Do not be afraid: WECOME to Norway :)
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety