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TOWARDS COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE
REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR A “KNOCK OUT DISASTER”
CREATING A COMMON AGENDA
EVERY TIME ANOTHER DISASTER OCCURS, WE’RE ARE WRITING
THE NEXT CHAPTER IN THE “GLOBAL BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE”
ON DISASTER RESILIENCE
BOOK OFBOOK OF
KNOWLEDGE
KNOWLEDGE
- Perspectives
- Perspectives
On Science, Policy,
On Science, Policy, And Change
And Change
EDUCATION FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
• TOPICAL BLUEPRINTS• BLUEPRINTS FOR
LIVING WITH …• BLUEPRINTS FOR
BUILDING TO WITHSTAND…
• BLUEPRINTS FOR LEARNING FROM…
• BLUEPRINTS FOR IMPLEMENTATION...
• REGIONAL BLUEPRINTS
• PACIFIC• EUROPE• ASIA• LATIN AMERICA AND
CARIBBEAN• SUB-SAHARA AFRICA• MEDITERRANEAN• NORTH AMERICA
EDUCATION FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
• EDUCATION• INTEGRATED
CURRICULA• GENERIC MODELS• MODELS FOR
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS• MODELS FOR
SPECIFIC HAZARDS• TRAINING
• KNOWLEDGE• MUNICH RE ANNUAL
REPORTS, “TOPICS”• PROCEEDINGS OF
WCDR, JANUARY 2005• PROCEEDINGS OF
INCEED, JULY 2005• PROCEEDINGS OF
DAVOS, 2006, 2008, 2012
TOWARDS GLOBAL DISASTER TOWARDS GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE
GOAL: TO FIND THE COMMON AGENDAGOAL: TO FIND THE COMMON AGENDA((CACA) OF TECHNICAL ) OF TECHNICAL
AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONSAND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS
TECHNICAL TECHNICAL SOLUTIONSSOLUTIONS
POLITICAL POLITICAL SOLUTIONSSOLUTIONS
CACA
TOWARDS GLOBAL DISASTER TOWARDS GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE
FACT: THE COMMON AGENDA IS BASED FACT: THE COMMON AGENDA IS BASED ON EACH COMMUNITY’S ON EACH COMMUNITY’S STAPLESTAPLE FACTORS FACTORS
TECHNICAL TECHNICAL SOLUTIONSSOLUTIONS
POLITICAL POLITICAL SOLUTIONSSOLUTIONS
STAPLESTAPLE FACTORSFACTORS
PPTT
SSOO
CACA
HAZARDSHAZARDS
ELEMENTS OF RISK IN EVERY ELEMENTS OF RISK IN EVERY COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
EXPOSUREEXPOSURE
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATION
RISKRISK
HAZARDS, EXPOSURE, VULNERABILITY AND HAZARDS, EXPOSURE, VULNERABILITY AND RISK DIFFER IN EVERY COMMUNITY RISK DIFFER IN EVERY COMMUNITY
SO DO THE THE STAPLE FACTORS, WHICH VARY WITH
• TIME• PLACE• CIRCUMSTANCES
SOCIAL (ARE THE PEOPLE AWARE OF WHAT THEY NEED?)
COMMUNITY
TECHNICAL (IS THE STATE OF KNOWLEDGE AND PRACTICE BEING
APPLIED?)
ADMINISTRATIVE (WHO IS RESPONSIBLE AND ACCOUNTABLE?)
POLITICAL (ARE PUBLIC POLICIES RELEVANT IN TERMS OF THE
THREAT?)
LEGAL (ARE EXISTIN LEGAL MANDATES ENFORCED?)
ECONOMIC (WILLINGNESS AND CAPACITY TO PAY FOR SAFETY?)
GOAL: COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE
SOCIAL SYSTEMS
STAPLE FACTORS
TOWARDS GLOBAL DISASTER TOWARDS GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE
GOAL: TO UNDERSTAND THE DIFFERENCESGOAL: TO UNDERSTAND THE DIFFERENCESIN TECHNICAL IN TECHNICAL
AND POLITICAL THINKINGAND POLITICAL THINKING
TECHNICAL TECHNICAL SOLUTIONSSOLUTIONS
POLITICAL POLITICAL SOLUTIONSSOLUTIONS
CACA
DIFFERENCES IN PERSPECTIVES OF POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL
PROFESSIONALS
BASED ON “NOT WELL ADVISED,” SZANTON (1981)
POLITICAL VERSUS TECHNICAL
• POLITICAL• THE GUIDING
PRINCIPLE FOR THE POLITICAL DECISION IS TO HAVE THE “LEAST REGRETS”
• TECHNICAL• THE GUIDING
PRINCIPLE FOR THE TECHNICAL DECISION IS TO HAVE THE “BEST SCIENCE”
POLITICAL VERSUS TECHNICAL
• POLITICAL• THE DESIRED
OUTCOME IS APPROVAL OF THE DECISIONMAKER’S CONSTITUENTS (ELECTORATE, STOCK HOLDERS)
• TECHNICAL• THE DESIRED
OUTCOME IS RESPECT OF THE SCIENTIST’S OR ENGINEER’S PEERS
POLITICAL VERSUS TECHNICAL
• POLITICAL• THE TIME
HORIZON IS SHORT AND A SOLUTION IS WANTED NOW
• TECHNICAL• THE TIME
HORIZON IS LONG AND “THE SOLUTION” TAKES A LITTLE MORE TIME
POLITICAL VERSUS TECHNICAL
• POLITICAL• THE MOST
VALUED OUTCOME IS A RELIABLE SOLUTION WITH UNCERTAINTIES SUBMERGED
• TECHNICAL• THE MOST
VALUED OUTCOME IS SCIENTIFIC INSIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTIES EMPHASIZED
MYTH VERSUS REALITY
• MYTH• IN EVERY
COMMUNITY, THERE IS A GENERAL PUBLIC, WHICH HAS A COMMON PERCEPTION OF THE PROBLEM
• REALITY• IN EVERY
COMMUNITY, THERE ARE MANY PUBLICS, WHICH HAVE DIFFERENT PERCEPTIONS OF THE PROBLEM
MYTH VERSUS REALITY
• MYTH• E-MAILING A
REPORT IS EFFECTIVE IN INFLUENCING THE COMMUNITY’S PUBLICS AND THE POLITICAL PROCESS
• REALITY• E-MAILING A
REPORT IS INEFFECTIVE IN INFLUENCING THE COMMUNITY’S PUBLICS AND THE POLITICAL PROCESS
MYTH VERSUS REALITY
• MYTH• FOR A SCIENTIFIC
DECISION, SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS IS A NECESSARY AND SUFFICIENT CONSIDERATION
• REALITY• FOR A POLITICAL
DECISION, SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS IS ONLY ONE OF AT LEAST SIX CONSIDERATIONS
DECISIONS FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
• INTEGRATE THE STAPLE FACTORS
• BALANCE THE COMMUNITY’S STAPLE FACTORS
• DETERMINE BENEFIT/COST
RESULTS OF A COMMON AGENDA FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
• REDUCTION OF VULNERABILITY
• REDUCTION OF UNACCEPTABLE RISK
• NO “KNOCK OUT DISASTERS”
• POLITICAL ENABLEMENT
• ENHANCED TECHNICAL CAPACITY