Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Citation preview
Students at the heart of the system – what’s behind the words?
Bahram BekhradniaDirector, HEPI
AUA Conference3rd April 2012
Talk in two parts
o Issues with the “reforms”
o What might the implications be for universities?
An ideological driven policy
o Nothing wrong with that – policy based on principles
o The problem is the principles can’t be implemented, and the compromises are damaging
What is the rhetoric and ideology?
o Markets should rule- Student choice
Including wider range of institutions
- Remove control over recruitment- Vouchers
o Government involvement should reduce
Why can the ideology not be implemented?
o Victim of circumstances- Funding cuts (teaching by up to 80%)
So student number controls remain So on vouchers cannot be extended to
privates (or not easily)
o The ideology is flawed- Vouchers in HE are a bad idea- Universities are an important part of
the nation’s infrastructure- Perverse effects of leaving it entirely to
the market
Examples of perverse effects already encountered
o Level of tuition feeso Undermining recruitment of STEMo Encouraging provision in the arts at
STEM’s expenseo Impact on widening participationo Arms race of merit-based
scholarships
Part 2: So what does the future hold for universities? – a pseudo market
o The key policies affecting universities – not students - are not fee levels but student number controls
o The core and margin and AAB policies
o Core and margin means that few universities can afford to hold out against the pressure to reduce fees
Maintaining fees at £9,000 loses an institution 30% of income in 5 years
£500,000
£550,000
£600,000
£650,000
£700,000
£750,000
£800,000
£850,000
£900,000
£950,000
Institution AInstitution B
Russell & 94 Group universities too
Impact on choice
o One purpose of core and margin is to provide public funding to privates
o But no suggestion that students would prefer that – it’s supply-side, not market-driven
o And AAB doesn’t increase choiceo The combined policies may maintain choice
for a minority but reduce it for the majorityo And the more that are included in the “top
performing” (ABB etc), the more will have to be withdrawn from the rest
So in consequence
o Reduced choice for studentso No reduction in quotaso No reduction in government
interventiono Instead of a market determining
which universities will grow and contract HEFCE committees will do so
o A bipolar system – £7500 universities and £9000 universities, and students will be polarised too
Cost and implications of these costs
o White Paper gives three different assessments of cost – 30%, 32% and 37% – a difference of £0.5 bn per year
o The estimates of cost are hopelessly optimistic- One of the original assumptions (average fee
levels) has been addressed- But other serious misplaced assumptions remain
EU students’ repayments The gender balance
- The average graduate salary in real terms will be £100,000 per year
Changes in real terms graduate salaries over 35 years
Changes in real terms graduate salaries over 35 years (2)
College low m
en
College low w
omen
College median m
en
College median wom
en
College high men
College high women
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
What will the consequence be?
o Costs will be far higher than the government’s estimate
o We need to be seriously concerned, and there are the first signs that the government recognises this
o So cuts will be needed somewhere- Other parts of the higher education
budget – the residual HEFCE grant?- Graduates paying even more (reduce or
removing subsidies)- Reduction in participation?
For individual universities?
o The limited competition that exists – for AAB students - will have insidious effects. Most universities - and not just the obvious ones - will be vulnerable to predators.
o Most will have to reduces prices idc. Over £7500 will lose 10% of numbers each year. Game of chicken
o There will be a new hierarchy - £9000 universities & the rest
o Need to satisfy HEFCE cttees. HEFCE can bankrupt a university, not market. HEFCE’s criteria for allocating places to include impact on viability?
o What will happen to PG demand? o And PT demand?
Conclusion
o The income of universities has been preserved
o The price is a heavy one- Disruption & uncertainty- Fragmented sector- Increased government control
o But above all the price will be borne by the next generation
Students at the heart of the system – what’s behind the words?
Bahram BekhradniaDirector, HEPI
AUA Conference3rd April 2012
