Species, people and networks

Marco Pautasso 1 March 2010

Some recent studies of the spp-people correlation

World wilderness map from: UNEP-WCMC World Atlas of Biodiversity, GIS analysis by R. Lesslie (ANU), method developed for the Australian Heritage Commission

Balmfordet al. (2001) ScienceReal et al.

(2003) J Biogeog

McKinney (2003) Biol Cons

Vazquez & Gaston (2006) Biodiv & Cons

Chown et al. (2003) Ecol Appl

Luck (2007)J Biogeog

Araujo(2003) GEB

Hunter & Jonzon(1993) CB

Ding et al. (2006) J Biogeog

Moreno-Rueda &

Pizarro (2008) Ecol Res

Diniz-Filho et al. (2006) Acta Oecol.

n = 2877, r2 = 0.18, y = 1.75+ 0.22x, p < 0.0001

1

2

3

4

2 3 4 5 6 7

log10 human population size (n)

log1

0 vas

cula

r pla

nt s

pp ri

chne

ss (n

)

A positive species-people correlation for vascular plants in US counties

Data from the Synthesis of the North American Flora, Ohio and Virginia not included

1. Sampling bias?

from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology

US counties with (•) or without (o) Universities and/or Botanical Gardens

from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology

• N = 692, r2 = 0.13, y = 2.15 (SE = 0.08) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001

o N = 2187, r2 = 0.10, y = 2.18 (SE = 0.05) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001

From: Hufnagel et al. (2005) PNAS (air) & Kaluza et al. (2010) Interface (sea)

Plant (and botanist) movements in a globalized world

passengers

NATURAL

TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIAL

food webs

airport networks

cell metabolism

neural networks

railway networks

ant nests

WWWInternet

electrical power grids

software mapscomputing

gridsE-mail

patterns

innovation flows

telephone calls

co-authorship nets

family networks

committees

sexual partnerships DISEASE

SPREAD

Food web of Little Rock Lake, Wisconsin, US

Internet structure

Network pictures from: Newman (2003) SIAM Review

HIV spread

network

Epidemiology is just one of the many applications of network theory

urban road networks

modified from: Jeger et al. (2007) New Phytologist

step 1

step 2

step 3

step n

…

Simple model of infection spread (e.g. P. ramorum) in a network

pt probability of infection transmission

pp probability of infection persistence

… 100node 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (in review) Phytopathology

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00

probability of transmission

prob

abili

ty o

f per

sist

ence

localrandomsmall-worldscale-free (two-way)scale-free (uncorrelated)scale-free (one way)

Lower epidemic threshold for scale-free networks with positive correlation between in- and out-degree

modified from: Pautasso & Jeger (2008) Ecological Complexity

Epidemic does not develop Epidemic develops

Lower epidemic threshold for two-way scale-free networks (unless networks are sparsely connected)

N replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev.; different letters show sign. different means

at p < 0.05

from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2009) JTB

Correlation of epidemic final size with out-degree of starting node increases with network connectivity

N replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev.; different letters show sign. different means at p < 0.05

from: Pautasso et al. (2010) Ecol Compl

from: Cushman & Meentemeyer (2008) Journal of Ecology

Multi-scale correlation of human presence and Phytophthora ramorum disease incidence

Sudden Oak Death in California

from Desprez-Loustau et al. (2007) Trends in Ecology & Evolution

Source: United States Department of Agriculture, 2004Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine

Trace forward/back zipcode

Positive (Phytophthora ramorum) site

Hold released

2. Species introductions?

Spatial analysis of P. ramorum reported cases in England/Wales: garden/nurseries vs. semi-natural environment

O12(r) v

alue

s

0.00

0.06

0.12

0.18

0.24

0.30f: Garden/Nursery - SNE 04 - 05

Distance (km)0 2 4 6 8 10

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4g: Garden/Nursery - SNE 05 - 06

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

Distance (km)0 2 4 6 8 10

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20d: SNE - Garden/Nursery 05 - 06

c: SNE - Garden/Nursery 04 - 05

from: Xu et al. (2009) Ecography

from: Harwood et al. (2009) Ecological Modelling

Ants and people in Europe

from Schlick-Steiner et al. (2008) Journal of Biogeography

(a)y = -0.19 + 0.29x, s.s.e. = 0.03, r2 = 0.42, p < 0.0001

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0

log10 human population size (n)

log 1

0 ant

spec

ies r

ichn

ess (

n)

(b)y = 0.67 + 0.22x, s.s.e = 0.02, r2 = 0.30, p < 0.0001

1.0

2.0

3.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

log10 country area (km2)

log 1

0 ant

spec

ies r

ichn

ess (

n)

(c)y = -1.00 + 0.87x, s.s.e. = 0.13, r2 = 0.56, p < 0.0001

1.0

2.0

3.0

2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

log10 plant species richness (n)

log 1

0 ant

spec

ies r

ichn

ess (

n)

(d)y = 0.65 - 0.27x, s.s.e. = 0.64, r2 = 0.02, p = 0.67

1.0

2.0

3.0

-4.6 -4.5 -4.4 -4.3 -4.2

Boltzmann transformed temperature (1/kT)

log 1

0 ant

spe

cies

rich

ness

(n)

b from: http://www.worldmapper.org/

a, c & d: from: Pautasso & Parmentier (2007) Botanica Helvetica

(c)

(d)

(a) (c)

log 1

0sp

pri

chne

ss (n

)

(b) Size of countries reflects n of botanic gardens

Living collections of the world’s botanical gardens

(d)

(yr)

from: Golding et al. (2010) Annals of Botany

Living collections of the world’s botanic gardens (2)

3. Active conservation?

Photos of veteran trees courtesy of G. Bortolotti; Map of human population density from Swiss Federal Statistical Office

Celtis australis, San Gimignano

Quercus robur, Udine

Castanea sativa,St. Alfio, Sicily

Quercus cerris,Amatrice, Latium

Cupressussempervirens, Forli

people / km2

no information

(c)y = -2.03 + 0.49x, r2 = 0.15, p < 0.0001

0

1

2

4 5 6 7log10 province human population size

log1

0 vet

eran

tree

spec

ies

(c)

y = -1.70 + 0.47x, r2 = 0.69, p < 0.0001

0

1

2

4 5 6 7 8

log10 region human population size

log1

0 vet

eran

tree

spec

ies

(b)y = -2.98 + 0.68x, r2 = 0.13, p < 0.0001

0

1

2

4 5 6 7log10 province human population size

log 1

0 vet

eran

tree

indi

vidu

als

(b)

y = -1.99 + 0.58x, r2 = 0.56, p < 0.00010

1

2

3

4 5 6 7 8

log10 region human population size

log1

0 vet

eran

tree

indi

vidu

als

(c)(a)

(b)

a & b: abundance, c & d: spp richness, a & c: regions; b & d: provinces; from: Pautasso & Chiarucci (2008) Annals of Botany

(d)

Ancient trees in Italy’s regions and provinces

from: Pautasso & Dinetti (2009) Environmental Conservation

Birds, people and protected areas in Italy’s regions

from: Pautasso & Zotti (2009) Biodiversity and Conservation

Macrofungi and human population in Italy’s regions

Plant Health, Global Change and Landscape Management

Pautasso et al. (2010) Biological Reviews

Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees

Pautasso (2009) Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution & Systematics

Pinus pinea (Vendramin et al. (2008) Evolution)

Structural change in the international horticultural industry: implications for plant health

Dehnen-Schmutz et al. (2010) Scientia Horticulturae

(trade in ornamental plants)

MacLeod et al. (2010) Food Security

Plant health and stakeholder engagement

from Pautasso & Fontaneto (2008) Ecological Applications

Pict

ures

from

http

://bi

okey

s.be

rkel

ey.e

du

What about stream macro-invertebrates (may-, stone- & caddis-flies)?

from Pecher et al. (2010) Basic and Applied Ecology

Scale-dependence of the correlation between species richness of stream macro-invertebrates and people

from: Chiari et al. (2010) J Animal Ecology

Locally, the spp-people correlation tends to be negative

birds in Florence

from Steck & Pautasso (2008) Acta Oecologica

Grasshoppers and people in Europe

from Cantarello et al. (2010) Naturwissenschaften

Sampling effort explains the correlation between species richness of Orthoptera and people in Italy

from: Lonsdale et al. (2008) European Journal of Forest Research

Random sample of 100 papers per year on ‘species richness’ in WOS (1991-2004)

Acknowledgements

Claude Steck, Birmensdorf

Mike Jeger, Silwood

Ingrid Parmentier,

Bruxelles

Kevin Gaston,

Sheffield

Diego Fontaneto,Stockholm

Birgit & Florian Schlick-Steiner, Innsbruck

Mike McKinney, Knoxville

Lorenzo Marini, Padova

Alessandro Chiarucci,

Siena

Susanne Fritz, Copenhagen

Ottmar Holdenrieder, Zurich

Peter Weisberg, Reno

Glen Powell, South Ken

Mathieu Moslonka-Lefebvre, Paris

Tom Harwood, Canberra

Caroline Pecher, Bozen

ReferencesJokimäki J, Kaisanlahti-Jokimäki M-L, Suhonen J, Clergeau P, Pautasso M & Fernández-Juricic E (2011) Merging wildlife community ecology and animal behavioral ecology for a better urban landscape planning. Landscape & Urban Planning 100: 383-385Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Finley A, Dorigatti I, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Harwood T, Jeger MJ, Xu XM, Holdenrieder O & Pautasso M (2011) Networks in plant epidemiology: from genes to landscapes, countries and continents. Phytopathology 101: 392-403Pautasso M, Böhning-Gaese K, Clergeau P, Cueto VR, Dinetti M, Fernandez-Juricic E, Kaisanlahti-Jokimäki ML, Jokimäki J, McKinney ML, Sodhi NS, Storch D, Tomialojc L, Weisberg PJ, Woinarski J, Fuller RA & Cantarello E (2011) Global macroecology of bird assemblages in urbanized and semi-natural ecosystems. Global Ecology & Biogeography 20: 426-436Barbosa AM, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) Is the human population a large-scale indicator of the species richness of ground beetles? Anim Cons 13: 432-441Barbosa AM, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) Positive regional species–people correlations: a sampling artefact or a key issue for sustainable development? Animal Conservation 13: 446-447Cantarello E, Steck CE, Fontana P, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) A multi-scale study of Orthoptera species richness and human population size controlling for sampling effort. Naturwissenschaften 97: 265-271Chiari C, Dinetti M, Licciardello C, Licitra G & Pautasso M (2010) Urbanization and the more-individuals hypothesis. Journal of Animal Ecology 79: 366-371Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2010) Structural change in the international horticultural industry: some implications for plant health. ScientiaHorticulturae 125: 1-15Golding J, Güsewell S, Kreft H, Kuzevanov VY, Lehvävirta S, Parmentier I & Pautasso M (2010) Species-richness patterns of the living collections of the world's botanic gardens: a matter of socio-economics? Annals of Botany 105: 689-696MacLeod A, Pautasso M, Jeger M & Haines-Young R (2010) Evolution of the international regulation of plant pests & challenges for future plant health. Food Security 2: 49-70 Pautasso M (2010) Worsening file-drawer problem in the abstracts of natural, medical and social science databases. Scientometrics 85: 193-202Pautasso M & Pautasso C (2010) Peer reviewing interdisciplinary papers. European Review 18: 227-237Pautasso M & Schäfer H (2010) Peer review delay and selectivity in ecology journals. Scientometrics 84: 307-315Pautasso M, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Pietravalle S, Salama N, Jeger MJ, Lange E & Hehl-Lange S (2010) Plant health and global change – some implications for landscape management. Biological Reviews 85: 729-755Pautasso M, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Jeger MJ (2010) The number of links to and from the starting node as a predictor of epidemic size in small-size directed networks. Ecological Complexity 7: 424-432 Pautasso M, Xu XM, Jeger MJ, Harwood T, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Pellis L (2010) Disease spread in small-size directed trade networks: the role of hierarchical categories. Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 1300-1309Pecher C, Fritz S, Marini L, Fontaneto D & Pautasso M (2010) Scale-dependence of the correlation between human population and the species richness of stream macroinvertebrates. Basic Applied Ecology 11: 272-280Harwood TD, Xu XM, Pautasso M, Jeger MJ & Shaw M (2009) Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and P. kernoviae in the UK. Ecological Modelling 220: 3353-3361 Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Disease spread in small-size directed networks: epidemic threshold, correlation between links to and from nodes, and clustering. Journal of Theoretical Biology 260: 402-411

References (bis)Pautasso M (2009) Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Systematics and Evolution 11: 157-189Pautasso M & Dinetti M (2009) Avian species richness, human population and protected areas across Italy’s regions. Environmental Conservation 36: 22-31Pautasso M & Powell G (2009) Aphid biodiversity is correlated with human population in European countries. Oecologia 160: 839-846Pautasso M & Zotti M (2009) Macrofungal taxa and human population in Italy's regions. Biodiversity & Conservation 18: 473-485Xu XM, Harwood TD, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Spatio-temporal analysis of an invasive plant pathogen (Phytophthora ramorum) in England and Wales. Ecography 32: 504-516Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2008) Comparative epidemiology of zoosporic plant pathogens. European Journal of Plant Pathology 122: 111-126Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2008) Plant disease and global change – the importance of long-term data sets. New Phytologist 177: 8-11Lonsdale D, Pautasso M & Holdenrieder O (2008) Wood-decaying fungi in the forest: conservation needs and management options. European Journal of Forest Research 127: 1-22 Pautasso M & Chiarucci A (2008) A test of the scale-dependence of the species abundance-people correlation for veteran trees in Italy. Annals of Botany 101: 709-715 Pautasso M & Fontaneto D (2008) A test of the species-people correlation for stream macro-invertebrates in European countries. Ecological Applications 18: 1842-1849Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2008) Epidemic threshold and network structure: the interplay of probability of transmission and of persistence in directed networks. Ecological Complexity 5: 1-8Pautasso M & Weisberg PJ (2008) Density-area relationships: the importance of the zeros. Global Ecology and Biogeography 17: 203-210Schlick-Steiner B, Steiner F & Pautasso M (2008) Ants and people: a test of two mechanisms behind the large-scale human-biodiversity correlation for Formicidae in Europe. J of Biogeography 35: 2195-2206Steck CE & Pautasso M (2008) Human population, grasshopper and plant species richness in European countries. Acta Oecologica 34: 303-310Jeger MJ, Pautasso M, Holdenrieder O & Shaw MW (2007) Modelling disease spread and control in networks: implications for plant sciences. New Phytologist 174: 179-197 Pautasso M (2007) Scale-dependence of the correlation between human presence and plant/vertebrate species richness. Ecology Letters 10: 16-24 Pautasso M & McKinney ML (2007) The botanist effect revisited: plant species richness, county area and human population size in the US. Conservation Biology 21, 5: 1333-1340 Pautasso M & Parmentier I (2007) Are the living collections of the world’s botanical gardens following species-richness patterns observed in natural ecosystems? BotanicaHelvetica 117: 15-28 Pautasso M & Gaston KJ (2006) A test of the mechanisms behind avian generalized individuals-area relationships. Global Ecology and Biogeography 15: 303-317 Pautasso M & Gaston KJ (2005) Resources and global avian assemblage structure in forests. Ecology Letters 8: 282-289Pautasso M, Holdenrieder O & Stenlid J (2005) Susceptibility to fungal pathogens of forests differing in tree diversity. In: Forest Diversity and Function (Scherer-Lorenzen M, Koerner Ch & Schulze D, eds.). Ecol. Studies Vol. 176. Springer, Berlin, pp. 263-289 Holdenrieder O, Pautasso M, Weisberg PJ & Lonsdale D (2004) Tree diseases and landscape processes: the challenge of landscape pathology. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 19, 8: 446-452