Climate-KIC

MULTI-LEVEL

PERSPECTIVE analytical framework for transitions

Zurich, January 2015

Javier de V icente (jadevicen@gmail.com)

Climate-KIC

1. Introduction

2. MLP

3. Transitions

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1.Introduction

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Incumbent regime

Path dependence

Transition pathways

regime Socio-technical landscape

deepening broadening

Scaling-up

Nurturing

Shielding

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Incumbent regime

Path dependence

Transition pathways

regime Socio-technical landscape

deepening broadening

Scaling-up

Nurturing

Shielding

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“One of the basic skil ls to master when you are dealing with system innovation is to know how to drink beers” JJ and J V… private conversation

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“Houston, we have a problem”

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“…The major problems of our time cannot be understood in isolation, are systemic, which means interconnected and interdependent” Frtijof Cappra, The Web of life (1996)

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Can you see behind the cars?

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Let´s take a “systemic” look at this bunch of trees

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Multi-actor

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Interdependence

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Co-evolution, adaptation…

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Emergent behaviour

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Butterf ly effect

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Opportunistic species

Current ecosystem

Multi-level

External conditions

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Butterf ly effect

Emergent behaviour

Co-evolution, adaptation…

Interdependence Multi-level

Multi-actor

Non linearity

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How to apply this approach to social and technical problems, such as cars and mobility?

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Butterf ly effect

Emergent behaviour

Co-evolution, adaptation…

Interdependence Multi-level

Multi-actor

Non linearity

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2. MLP

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MULTI-LEVEL PERSPECTIVE

Lr n

L

R

N

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Let´s start by understanding and describing the incumbent

system or regime

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SOCIO-TECHNICAL SYSTEM

Technology

+ Society

+ Relationships Multi-actor

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System is not about actors, It is about their relations and how they are materialised, Institutionalised and

structured in a dynamic complex of multiple dimensions

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Knowledge Base

Radical Key Innovation Idea

Car/ mobility Socio-technical

system

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Industrial capacity:

Radical Key Innovation Idea

Car/ mobility Socio-technical

system

Knowledge Base

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Industrial capacity:

Radical Key Innovation Idea

Car/ mobility Socio-technical

system

Knowledge Base

Built environment

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Industrial capacity:

Radical Key Innovation Idea

Car/ mobility Socio-technical

system

Knowledge Base

Built environment Market and user habits

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Industrial capacity:

Radical Key Innovation Idea

Car/ mobility Socio-technical

system

Knowledge Base

Built environment Market and user habits

Culture:

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Industrial capacity:

Radical Key Innovation Idea

Car/ mobility Socio-technical

system

Knowledge Base

Built environment Market and user habits

Culture: Regulation, policy, institutions:

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Industrial capacity:

Radical Key Innovation Idea

Car/ mobility Socio-technical

system

Knowledge Base

Built environment Market and user habits

Culture: Regulation, policy, institutions:

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Many different regimes, usually interconnected, coexist in the same region

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Socio-technical system

Socio-technical regimes are multi-dimensional. Depending on the sector the number and type

of dimension can vary.

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Same regime becomes different in different regions. Due to local resources and societal

interdependencies the mainstream solution is different

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REGIME:

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How about the other two levels, niches and landscape

in socio-technical systems?

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NICHES:

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LANDSCAPE:

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Landscape: drivers for change

Regime: Barriers for radical change

Niches: Alternatives for the change

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… But remember, we are in a rush and need radical innovation and transformation and we need it now…

How does transition come about?

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3. TRANSITIONS

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Transition occurs when the incumbent regime is transformed or replaced.

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In the regime can arise an awareness about the need of change, converging

visions of where to go, both in social, political and cognitive dimensions.

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We have niches where a lo lot of experiments are taking place and struggle to break into the regime.

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But unless regime falls apart being disrupted, a window of opportunity won´t be opened for disruptive innovation. Likewise if niches are not developed, won´t be

able of taking advantage of the window

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Changes in landscape become pressure for the regime If we are thinking of radical innovation we will need

strong, rapid and disruptive pressure.

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Transitions need: 1.Pressure from the landscape 2.Regime openness for change (instability) 3.Niche innovations

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Different transition pathways according to the nature and timing of aforementioned conditions

Pressure: doesn´t exist, moderate, strong and rapid Pressure: Reinforces or disrupts the regime

Niches: Developed or not Pressure: Symbiotic or competitive with regime

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TRANSITION PATHWAYS (Geels and Schot, 2007)

P0 Reproductive process No external landscape pressure, the incumbent regime is stable and reproduces itself, even if there are developed niches - no transition occurs.

P1 Transformation/ reorientation pathway

Moderate landscape pressure, niches not developed. The incumbent regime actors re-orientate and modify the regime in response. DUTCH HYGIENIC TRANSITION CESSPOOL TO SEWERS

P2 De-alignment and re-alignment pathway

Strong, rapid landscape pressure, undeveloped niches. The incumbent regime disintegrates, space for multiple innovations, eventually one becomes dominant and forms a new regime. AMERICAN HORSE TO AUTOMOBILE

P3 Technological substitution

Strong, disruptive landscape pressure on stable regime, niche novelties developed. The niche takes advantage of a window of opportunity to push away the incumbent regime. BRITISH SAIL TO STEAMSHIPS

P4 Reconfiguration pathway

Symbiotic/sequence of innovations developed in niches are adopted by the incumbent regime to solve its problems. New regime grows out of the incumbent. AMERICAN FACTORIES TO MASS PRODUCTION

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…In a nutshell

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WHAT: Analytical tool for transitions, that distinghuishes between 3 levels with different meanings.

1. Exogenous landscape: drivers 2. Incumbent regime: barriers 3. Niches: alternatives

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HOW: When landscape preassures

and make regime instable, an opportunity window is opened for the niches and transition is on the way. Different pathways on depending on the change in landscape and relations between levels

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WHY: not only market prices, subsidies or technology drive innovation. Identifying barriers and drivers in a broader societal perspective

WHEN: At the start and/or during

an innovation project or programme for a low carbon society.

WHO: Project /Programme leaders

Policy makers, Analysts/researchers.

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Are you up for a beer?

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MULTI-LEVEL

PERSPECTIVE analytical framework for transitions

Zurich, January 2015

Javier de V icente (jadevicen@gmail.com)