The Cognitive Machines Driving Public Perception and Policy

Ketan Joshi, Research and Communications Officer

11/11/2014

The Gods of the Gaps

2Source - Google Maps - https://www.google.com.au/maps/@-

33.7748874,151.0988658,3a,75y,281.71h,89.79t/data=!3m4!1e1!3m2!1sEtoA6EBl4Y1CpnHGWu0dIQ!2e0

Mysteries of the CSIRO

@KetanJ0

3Source - http://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/k-12/airplane/atmosphere.html

Climate Science

@KetanJ0

4Source - Youtube - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBWTJrS557E

Sky News – Jones, Moore, Richardson, Jackson

@KetanJ0

5Source - Africa Green Media - http://africagreenmedia.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/IPCC31.jpg

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

@KetanJ0

6Source - Annual Survey of Attitudes to Climate Change (CSIRO, 2013) -

http://www.csiro.au/Outcomes/Climate/Adapting/Annual-Survey-of-Australian-Attitudes-to-Climate-Change.aspx

Polling on Climate Change Opinions

@KetanJ0

8%

6%

39%

47%

Not happening

Don't know

Happening, but natural

Happening, but caused by

humans

“Typological breakdown of thoughts about the causes of

climate change (N = 5219)”

7Source – Essential Vision - http://essentialvision.com.au/energy-sources

Polling on Energy Transition Opinions

@KetanJ0

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Solarpower

Wind Hydro Gas Nuclearpower

Coal

“Do you think Australia should put more emphasis, less emphasis or about the same emphasis as it does now on producing domestic energy from the following sources?”

More emphasis Same emphasis Less emphasis Don’t know

8Source – 2014 RET Review – ACIL Allen https://retreview.dpmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/files/ACIL_Report.pdf

The Renewable Energy Target

@KetanJ0

9Source – 2GB radio - http://www.2gb.com/audioplayer/21496#.VGAUjvmUcsY

2GB Interview with Tony Abbott and Alan Jones

@KetanJ0

10Source – Australian Financial Review, 18/08/2014 -

http://www.afr.com/p/national/abbott_plan_to_axe_ret_H2znp8ix2CuwbJe6jyb5ZP

What Makes Up Our Bills

@KetanJ0

11

Source – Google Image Search, “Carbon tax protest”

https://www.google.com.au/search?q=carbon+tax+protest&es_sm=93&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=GrJdVJywF-

W4mwWQr4DICA&ved=0CAkQ_AUoAg&biw=1920&bih=895

The Deeply Unpopular Carbon Price

@KetanJ0

12Source – Essential Vision - http://essentialvision.com.au/support-or-oppose-the-carbon-tax

Carbon Pricing Popularity (or, lack thereof)

@KetanJ0

48% 49%52% 53% 54%

48%

35%38% 37% 38%

35%38%

“Do you support or oppose the Government’s carbon pricing scheme?”

Total oppose

Total support

13Source – 2014 RET Review – ACIL Allen https://retreview.dpmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/files/ACIL_Report.pdf

The Merit Order Effect

@KetanJ0

14

Source SMH + The Australian - http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/climate-sceptic-dick-warburton-to-head-tony-abbott-review-into-

renewable-energy-target-20140217-32vve.html http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/ret-reviewer-dick-warburton-im-not-a-climate-

sceptic/story-e6frg6xf-1226829905020

The RET Review

@KetanJ0

“I am not a denier of climate change…I am

a sceptic that man-made carbon dioxide is

creating global warming.”

15

Source – Infigen Blog – http://www.infigenenergy.com/renewable-energy/blog/what-would-happen-if-the-ret-review-

recommendations-were-implemented.html

The Impacts + The Recommendations

@KetanJ0

16

Source – Infigen Energy Blog - http://www.infigenenergy.com/renewable-energy/blog/aussies-love-clean-tech.html + Essential Vision Polling

Public Perception of the Renewable Energy Target

@KetanJ0

17

Source - RET Review - https://retreview.dpmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/files/ACIL_Report.pdf

The 20% Maximum to be Imposed on Renewable Penetration

@KetanJ0

18Source – By Ketan + RET Review https://retreview.dpmc.gov.au/ret-review-report-0

The Prime Ministerial Knowledge Gap

@KetanJ0

RET Other

RET Other

Imagined “Significant” Renewable Energy Impact on Bills:

Measured Renewable Energy Impact on Bills:

19

Source Mike Sandiford, University of Melbourne - http://ramblingsdc.net/Australia/WindProblems.html#CO2_and_wind_farms

Emissions Reductions?

@KetanJ0

20Source – The Guardian - http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/dec/18/renewable-energy-tony-abbott-signals-he-could-wind-back-or-scrap-

targets

Emissions Reductions?

@KetanJ0

21Source – Flickr - https://www.flickr.com/photos/91514494@N05/9120110909/sizes/o/

Emissions Reductions?

@KetanJ0

22Source – ABC Media Watch = http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/s3596892.htm

ABC Media Watch – 24/09/2012

@KetanJ0

23Source – National Grid UK - http://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2012/sep/26/myth-wind-turbines-carbon-emissions

The National Grid - UK

@KetanJ0

24Source – Supplied, Pending Publication

South Australian Decarbonisation

@KetanJ0

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

Win

d P

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Ou

tpu

t (M

W, A

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ver

day)

South Australian Emissions Intensity Index

01/01/2012 - 25/10/2014 - SA Wind Power vs Emissions Intensity

25

South Australian wind power – July/August

Source - Supplied@KetanJ0

26

John Cleese’s Explanation of Confident Ignorance

Source – Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvVPdyYeaQU@KetanJ0

27

Wind Turbine Syndrome

Source – City News Canada - http://www.citynews.ca/files/2010/04/812f4c9940a6ad3b55872aae01f8.jpeg@KetanJ0

28Source: http://we-oppose-windfarms.tripod.com/id20.html

The Genesis of “Wind Turbine Syndrome”

@KetanJ0

29

Wind Turbine Syndrome

Source – The Independent, 2009 - http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/green-living/are-wind-farms-a-health-risk-us-scientist-identifies-

wind-turbine-syndrome-1766254.html @KetanJ0

30

Wind Turbine Syndrome

Source – Youtube - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHzlFYdqU9U@KetanJ0

31

Wind Turbine Syndrome

Source – British Medical Journal - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/4/6/e005374.full.pdf+html@KetanJ0

32Source:

Wind Turbine Syndrome

@KetanJ0

33Source – Supplied

Wind Turbine Syndrome

@KetanJ0

34Source – Ketan’s Blog - http://etwasluft.blogspot.com.au/2013/05/caveys-and-causal-gap-problems-with.html

Wind Turbine Syndrome

@KetanJ0

35Source – Ketan’s Blog - http://etwasluft.blogspot.com.au/2013/05/caveys-and-causal-gap-problems-with.html

Wind Turbine Syndrome

@KetanJ0

36

Wind Turbine Syndrome

@KetanJ0

Association of Australian Acoustical Consultants (2013)

Victorian Department of Health (2013)

NSW Health (2013)

Worksafe Victoria (2013)

Doctors for the Environment Australia (2011)

Climate and Health Alliance (2012)

Public Health Association of Australia (2013)

South Australian Environmental Protection Agency (2013)

National Health and Medical Research Council (2014)

Australian Medical Association (2014)

37

Wind Turbine Syndrome

@KetanJ0Source – 2gb Interview, Waubra Foundation Website - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MobTnO2s6uE

38

Wind Turbine Syndrome

@KetanJ0Source – Health Canada Summary Leaflet - http://southerntablelandsrenewables.org.au/wp-

content/uploads/2014/11/Health-Canada-Wind-Turbine-Noise-and-Health-Study_brochure-2014Nov6.pdf

39

Wind Turbine Syndrome

@KetanJ0Source – Twitter - https://twitter.com/ScottMillerCTV/status/530428629789192193

40

Our Brains Abhor a Vacuum

@KetanJ0Source – The Daily Beast - http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/04/26/daniel-kahneman-s-gripe-with-behavioral-

economics.html

41

Confidence vs Expertise

@KetanJ0Source – J Pers Soc Psychol. 1999 Dec;77(6):1121-34.- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10626367

42

Confidence vs Expertise

@KetanJ0Source – Pacific Standard Magazine (Science of Society) - http://www.psmag.com/navigation/health-and-behavior/confident-

idiots-92793/

43

Ideology

@KetanJ0

Source – Nature - www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n8/fig_tab/nclimate1610_F1.html

45https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1TzQMEfDL8

Massive changes to energy technology mean we

need to understand why we fill gaps in our

knowledge – confidence, ideology and identity

play a role.

Twitter - @KetanJ0

Email: Ketan.joshi@infigenenergy.com

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