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GEM Speakers SeriesUniversity of Colorado Denver School of Business
Thursday, February 21, 2013Leslie Martel Baer MS, MA
1
Agenda
How are you connected to GEM?
What do you want to learn today?
Timeline
Connections between different projects
Bringing it home
Q&A
2/21/2013 GEM Speakers Series - Small World: GEM & International Policy - L. Baer 2
Timeline
HR Course/Work on solar thermal (ST) workforce issues
London Course/Interest in international renewables (RE) policy
Present ST HR issues at World Renewable Energy Forum
Present RE policy investigation at Renewable Energy World Europe
Begin work on new Renewable Thermal Standard (RTS) in CO
2/21/2013 GEM Speakers Series - Small World: GEM & International Policy - L. Baer 3
Why RE Thermal?
China78%European Union
12%
Turkey2%
Brazil1%
India1%
Israel1%
Australia1%
United States1%
Japan1% Other
2%
% of Added Capacity
2/21/2013 GEM Speakers Series - Small World: GEM & International Policy - L. Baer 4
2008 total solar hot water/heating capacity addedby the top 10 countries: 28 GWth. Source: REN21
Colorado’s Energy Wheel: Today
Electrical Power29%
Transportation28%
Heating43%
Energy Consumption (by BTUs, 2010)
2/21/2013 GEM Speakers Series - Small World: GEM & International Policy - L. Baer 5
Colorado’s Energy Wheel: Target
Renewable Electric
5%
Electrical Power24%
Transportation28%
Heating43%
Energy Consumption (by BTUs, 2010)
After multipliers,Lower targets for REAs/munis:
RE Electric Target ~16.5%RE Total Target ~5.5%
2/21/2013 GEM Speakers Series - Small World: GEM & International Policy - L. Baer 6
More Than Gas: Energy Sources for Heat
Natural Gas68%
Electricity16%
Propane/LPG16%
Water Heating
Natural Gas74%
Electricity11%
Propane/LPG11%
Other4%
Space Heating
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Fuels used in Colorado to heat water and building space in 2009. Source: EIA
A Policy Gap
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ElectricityThermal(Heat)
Energy Production
Energy Conservation
1% DSMSurcharge
2% RESSurcharge
1% DSMSurcharge
1¢/thermRTS
Colorado’s ST Opportunity
U.S. Solar water heating performance in kWh/year (energy saved using aglycol solar system with a selective surface collector; pg 1).Source: Danny Parker, Florida Solar Energy Center
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U.S. Solar Thermal:A Growth Industry
U.S. shipments of ST collectors increased by 97.6% (1999–2008)
Companies shipping collectors grew by 100% (2006–2009)
U.S. ST collector manufacturing jobs increased by 365% (2000–2009)
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It’s a Talent War
Renewables are competing with each other
Competing with fossil fuel industries
Outgrowing “start up” style
Need practices to feed:
Leadership
Business development
Operations
2/21/2013 GEM Speakers Series - Small World: GEM & International Policy - L. Baer 11
Success, Challenges in R&D
NREL, Collaboratory, Universities, Industry
Need to provide, attract talent
Work visa issues
“Intermediate” engineering projects
Dearth of technicians
Image courtesy Alcoa, NREL
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Best Way to Fund Workforce Development?
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Total Installed Wind Generation Capacity, 1992–2010
Stability Matters: U.S. driven by temporary stability, multiple incentives, urgency
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
1992 1997 2002 2007
UK
U.S.
Colorado
2/21/2013 GEM Speakers Series - Small World: GEM & International Policy - L. Baer 14
Wind Generation Capacity as a Percentage of Total Capacity1992–2010
Colorado’s RES Similar to UK’s RO: Paid for by rate payers
U.S. states are driving RE action
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1992 1997 2002 2007
UK
U.S.
Colorado
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Colorado GEO:Wind as a Least Cost Resource Utility-scale RE
Water issues
Large geographic region; weather systems factor differently
Large grid; balancing factors differently
Mid-continent NG (?)
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NREL: Making Room for Coal
The “right” carbon cap and RPS
Reduce emissions w/ more coal in portfolio (not CCS)
Cheap domestic fuel
Modest impact to prices
Unlikely, but feasible
Technical Report
NREL/TP6A248258
May 2010
Evaluating Renewable Portfolio Standards and Carbon Cap Scenarios in the U.S. Electric Sector Lori Bird, Caroline Chapman, Jeff Logan, Jenny Sumner, and Walter Short
2/21/2013 GEM Speakers Series - Small World: GEM & International Policy - L. Baer 17
Reinventing Fire:An Optimal Energy Scenario to 2050One of Rocky Mountain Institute’s scenarios shows the “best case” dovetails with REF’s recommendations:
• Incentivize efficiency and DSM first, fairly
• Renewables make it to parity
• Transparency for and by producers, suppliers, consumers is essential
• Players operate under values, goals that fit their functions (e.g., suppliers supply)
2/21/2013 GEM Speakers Series - Small World: GEM & International Policy - L. Baer 18
A Policy Gap
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ElectricityThermal(Heat)
Energy Production
Energy Conservation
1% DSMSurcharge
2% RESSurcharge
1% DSMSurcharge
1¢/thermRTS
By 2025, the RTS will…
Generate 10,000 jobs
Save energy consumers$100 million
Create $360 million in business forCO companies
Save CO citizens $242 million in health,environmental costs
Offset 9.3 million MMBTU (2.7 million MWh) of natural gas
Eliminate 1.2 billion lbs of CO2 emissions
Every Year!
2/21/2013 GEM Speakers Series - Small World: GEM & International Policy - L. Baer 20
Geothermal: System Advantages
2/21/2013 GEM Speakers Series - Small World: GEM & International Policy - L. Baer 21
Lighting & Apps.
27%
Hot Water13%
Heating and AC
60%
Conventional Energy Use
Lighting & Apps.
27%
Hot Water
6%Heating
& AC18%
Geo. Energy
49%
Geothermal Energy Use
A Path to Net Zero
Energy Efficiency (passive solar, tight envelop, etc.)
Solar thermal domestichot water (can coupleto the geothermal heatexchanger for extremeheating loads)
Geothermal heatingand cooling
Solar photo voltaicelectricity
Integrated control systems
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Leslie Martel Baer MS, [email protected]
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