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Shopper Trends Introduction
Winning Brands Foresight
•Page 2
•Shopper Trends Training
Agenda
• Business issues addressed by Winning Brand Foresight for Retailers (via Shopper Trends)
•What is WBF and how it works?
•How WBF is applied? Case Study
•Where can you get support to run a WBF for Retailers?
•Q&A
•Page 3
•Shopper Trends Training
Business Issues Addressed
Delivers store foresightStore Threat: Is your store likely to be resilient or decline in the
face of strong competitive activation? What is the threat potential for your store?
Store Opportunity: What stores have strong growth potential – those that have the potential for the highest returns on investment?
Prioritizes Store ActionWhere should you focus your marketing attention – on
combating the threat potential or capitalizing on the opportunity/potential? Should you focus on retention or attraction?
•Page 4
•Shopper Trends Training
Should the store be driving its quality of
awareness?
Strategic : Salience
Strategic : Store Associations
How should the store be positioned?
Strategic : Competitive Focus
What competitive stores should you focus on to prevent defection or
induce switching?
Tactical : Targeting
How will you reach your consumer profile? What is their demographic profile?
Tactical : Shopping Modality
What activates store choice for your target shoppers? What are their shopping
behavior?
Maps strategic and
tactical plan for
driving attraction/
retention
Business Issues Addressed
•Page 5
•Shopper Trends Training
Within the dynamic competitive environment…
Are shoppers switching towards your store or defecting away from your store?
Are your shoppers beginning to feel disillusioned with your store and getting attracted to competitive stores?
STORE A
competitor b
competitor c
Are shoppers diffusing towards our store or away from it?
•Page 6
•Shopper Trends Training
shoppers may visit your store, but not be emotively
bonded to it
shoppers may not visit your store, but are attracted to it
…they create defection pressure
…they create draw pressure
Keep visiting it out of habit but I don’t love it
I don’t like it but I am waiting for something different to come along closer to home
I like store x but it’s a bit far away
THREAT OPPORTUNITY
Behavioral and emotive bonding are occasionally not in sync
•Page 7
•Shopper Trends Training
Reluctant
THREATAre there a lot of Tenuous
shoppers? - they exert Defection pressure
GROWTHAre there a lot of Attracted
shoppers? - they exert Draw pressure?
Bonded
Attracted
Regular shoppers
How many shoppers are Bonded, Tenuous, Attracted and Reluctant towards your store? Bonded
Attracted
Tenuous
Store Equity
Beh
avio
ral C
om
mit
men
t
HiLo
H iL o
PreferenceAdvocacyWilling to pay price premiumWillingness to travel
What is our store’s relationship with shoppers?
•Page 8
•Shopper Trends Training
shopping modality
omega shoppers
• Habitual shoppers• Do not experiment by
trying new stores
delta shoppers
• Open to new information• Experimental - try new stores • Influenced by buzz / advertising• Attracted by promotions
Shoppers exhibit differences in their willingness to experiment across different stores and can be segmented as omega and delta shoppers
…delta shoppers are most likely to switch
..not all Tenuous and Attracted shoppers are equally likely to switch
•Page 9
•Shopper Trends Training
delta
tenuous
delta
attracted
Tenuous Delta shoppers
Attraction
Attracted - Delta shoppers
The size of the Delta segment within the tenuous and attracted shoppers represents the threat and attraction potential
How many of your store’s Delta shoppers are bonded to it?
THREAT POTENTIAL GROWTH POTENTIAL
Retaining Switchers
Are the switchers likely to be retained?
What is the immediate threat / opportunity potential for our store?
•Page 10
•Shopper Trends Training
•Page 11
•Shopper Trends Training
THREATPOTENTIAL Ratio :
Tenuous Delta / Regular shoppers
Which store is likely to get the biggest bang for its buck if it stepped up its investment?
GROWTHPOTENTIAL
Propensity to attract
Is the store likely to be resilient or decline in the face of aggressive competitive activity?
Propensity for defection
Propensity to retain switchers
Ratio :Bonded Delta /Regular Delta shoppers
Ratio :Attracted Delta / Non - regular shoppers
What is the immediate threat /growth potential for our store?
•Page 12
•Shopper Trends Training
Bonded
Reluctant
Beh
avioral C
om
mitm
ent
Store Equity HiLo
Hi
Lo
Tenuous
DEFENDand drive equity
Regularly shop at your store but are not
emotively bonded
REINFORCE your resilient source of profitability
• Regularly shop at your store• Love your store / recommend
it• Willing to travel
• Willing to pay a price premium
LOW PRIORITY
No behavioral or emotive bonding
TARGETand drive switching
Attracted to your store but are not behaviorally
committed
Attracted
What are the strategic implications?
•Page 13
•Shopper Trends Training
Which stores are more likely to decline in the face of strong competitive activity?
• Retailer E & Retailer F have the highest threat potential.
(indexed to market average)
Threat Potential
STORE EQUITY INDEX
0.5
0.7
1.2
3.2
3.5
1.5
0 1 2 3 4 5
Retailer F
Retailer E
Retailer D
Retailer C
Retailer B
Retailer A
THREAT POTENTIAL
Retailer A 70
Retailer B 100
Retailer C 117
Retailer D 111
Retailer E 178
Retailer F 135
•Page 14
•Shopper Trends Training
Attraction Potential
Retaining Switchers
GROWTH POTENTIAL
Retailer A 153 140 143
Retailer B 192 98 120
Retailer C 94 84 86
Retailer D 105 72 80
Retailer E 94 10 30
Retailer F 43 63 58
Growth Potential
(indexed to market average)
What stores are likely to drive their share the most if they were to step up their investment / marketing activity?
• Compared to Retailer A, Retailer B has a stronger potential to attract new shoppers, but is relatively weaker at retaining them.
•Page 15
•Shopper Trends Training
Brand Behavioral | Emotive Relationship
4
8
10
30
37
7
7
19
31
23
13
29
27
26
26
23
77
63
46
43
13
17
1
21
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Retailer F
Retailer E
Retailer D
Retailer C
Retailer B
Retailer A
Bonded Tenuous Attracted Reluctant
Store Behavioral | Emotive Relationship
38%
68%
51%
Store Equity Index
0.5
0.7
1.2
3.2
3.5
1.5
0 1 2 3 4 5
Retailer F
Retailer E
Retailer D
Retailer C
Retailer B
Retailer A
•Page 16
•Shopper Trends Training
43
43
37
41
42
43
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Retailer F
Retailer E
Retailer D
Retailer C
Retailer B
Retailer A
% Delta shoppers among regular shoppers
% Delta shoppers among non -regular shoppers
39
39
40
37
35
37
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Retailer F
Retailer E
Retailer D
Retailer C
Retailer B
Retailer A
Delta Profile : Regular shoppers / Non shoppers
•Page 17
•Shopper Trends Training
• Should we focus our attention on defending against defection or on attraction? Threat Attraction FOCUS
High Low DefendHigh Med DefendHigh High Defend & AttractLow Low Attract Low Med AttractLow High AttractMed Low DefendMed Med Defend & Attract Med High Attract
What strategic focus areas should we conduct the drill down analysis on? Need to focus marketing thrust preferably on one key imperative!
If Threat is High, then Retaining switchers will be low, since they are likely to be the inverse of each other and vice versa. If Threat and Retaining switchers is an issue, then focus on Defending Defection.
Internal Use only
How do we pick what strategy to focus on?
•Page 18
•Shopper Trends Training
Threat Potential >Growth Potential
REDUCE DEFECTION THREAT
Focus on driving emotive bonding among regular shoppers
Threat Potential : Average
Attraction Potential : Average
Retaining Switchers :Average
Strategy Focus : Next Step
MANTAIN your MANTAIN your resilientresilient
source of profitabilitysource of profitability
Bonded
Reluctant
Beh
avioral C
om
mitm
ent
Store Equity HiLo
Hi
Lo
Tenuous
DEFENDDEFENDand drive equityand drive equity
TARGETTARGETand drive adoptionand drive adoption
Attracted
LOW PRIORITYLOW PRIORITY
Where should attention be focused to prevent defection?
TARGET Tenuous
Strengthen emotive bonding to prevent defection
•Page 20
•Shopper Trends Training
Strategic: Salience
Strategic: Store Associations
Strategic: Competitive Focus
Tactical: Shopping Modality
Tactical: Targeting
Spontaneous Store Awareness: Bonded vs. Tenuous or Attracted
Store Associations: Bonded vs. Tenuous or Attracted
Cross Store Affinity: What stores are they likely to defect to? Cross Store Usage: What stores should we induce switching from?
Shopping Modality Store selection triggers, Promotional sensitivity, Price awareness, Planned shopping trips, Browsing behaviour, Shopping pleasure, Private label awareness & purchase & Categories purchased at modern trade
Consumer Profile Household profile, Education, Grocery shopping role & Marital status
Strategic & Tactical Roadmap
•Page 21
•Shopper Trends Training
• For example, as would be expected, Tenuous have a lower spontaneous awareness compared to Bonded shoppers.
• However the gap in spontaneous awareness across the 2 segments is similar to the market average. Therefore it is not critical to strengthen the quality of awareness among the Tenuous.
Spont Awareness - For Example
98
81
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Tenuous
Bonded
Market average 0.82
Tenuous / BondedSpont Awareness Ratio
0.83
Is low store saliency contributing to the defection propensity?
Spontaneous Store Awareness : Bonded vs. Tenuous
•Page 22
•Shopper Trends Training
The gaps in store image between the Bonded and Tenuous reveal where attention needs to be focused to prevent the Tenuous shoppers from switching to competitive stores
– Convenient to get to– Close to home
– Everything I need in one store– Wide product range and
variety
– Well presented display of products
– Easy to find what I need
– Low prices for most items– Good value for money– Attractive promotions
What image levers need to be moved to prevent defection?
What image levers need to be moved to prevent defection?
Strengthen CoverageStrengthen Coverage
Improve Layout Improve Layout
Execute aggressive price / promotion
strategies
Execute aggressive price / promotion
strategies
IMPLICATIONS
PRIMARY FOCUS
Widen AssortmentWiden Assortment
SECONDARY FOCUS
Store Associations : Bonded vs. Tenuous
•Page 23
•Shopper Trends Training
Store Associations : Bonded vs. Tenuous
0 20 40 60 80
Bonded Tenuous
Convenient to get to
Close to home
Low prices for most items
Good value for money (groceries)
Attractive promotions
Good own stores
Easy to find what I need
Staff provide good service
Has loyalty programs
Ease of parking
Efficient checkout counters
0.40
0.40
0.22
0.22
0.21
0.11
0.26
0.16
0.16
0.12
0.09
0 0.2 0.4 0.6
IMPORTANCE
Sto
re
Ac
ce
ss
ibility
Pric
e
VF
M
Effic
ien
cy
/ L
oy
alty
Pro
gra
m
Bran
d P
erform
ance (T
op
Bo
x) in %
•Page 24
•Shopper Trends Training
Store Associations : Bonded vs. Tenuous
0 20 40 60 80
Bonded Tenuous
Everything I need in the one store
Well presented display of products
Wide product range and variety
Always have what I want in stock
Modern and comfortable store
Spacious
Better selection of high quality stores
Clean and hygienic store
Good range of fresh products
Good quality instant cooked foods
High quality fresh food
0.22
0.18
0.18
0.17
0.15
0.13
0.12
0.15
0.13
0.13
0.09
0 0.2 0.4 0.6
IMPORTANCE
La
rge
sto
re fo
rma
t / w
ide
se
lec
tion
Qu
ality
pro
du
cts
Bran
d P
erform
ance (T
op
Bo
x) in %
•Page 25
•Shopper Trends Training
Critical FocusSecondary Focus
Convenient to get toClose to homeEverything I need in the one storeWide product range and varietyWell presented display of productsEasy to find what I needLow prices for most items
Good value for money (groceries) Attractive promotions
Always have what I want in stockSpacious
Ease of parkingGood quality instant foodsBetter selection of quality stores
Clean and hygienic storeHigh quality fresh foodStaff provide good serviceEfficient checkout countersGood range of fresh productsHas loyalty programs Modern and comfortable storeProvides good own stores
Average Importance Score
MIN Gap Line = Minimum Gap + Range/3 where Range* = Maximum Gap – Minimum Gap
MAX Gap Line = Maximum Gap – Range/3 where Range* = Maximum Gap – Minimum Gap
* Only consider positive gap values when calculating range
Store Associations : Bonded vs. Tenuous
Gap in Image (Bonded vs. Attracted)
IMP
OR
TA
NC
E
•Page 26
•Shopper Trends Training
Critical FocusSecondary Focus
Convenient to get toClose to homeEverything I need in the one storeWide product range and varietyWell presented display of productsEasy to find what I needLow prices for most items
Good value for money (groceries) Attractive promotions
Strengthen Coverage
Widen Assortment
Improve Layout
Execute Aggressive Price/Promotion Strategies
Store Associations : Bonded vs. Tenuous
Gap in Image (Bonded vs. Attracted)
IMP
OR
TA
NC
E
•Page 27
•Shopper Trends Training
What stores do the Tenuous have a strong affinity interaction with?
• Retailer A and Retailer B are the leading hypermarket chains.
Cross Store Affinity : What stores are they likely to defect to?
(indexed to overall affinity share for each competitive store)
CROSS BRAND AFFINITY
Retailer A 108
Retailer B 102
Retailer C 81
Retailer D 71
Retailer E 56
•Page 28
•Shopper Trends Training
– Are experimental (like to try different stores)
– Scan newspapers / flyers for attractive deals and choose the store with attractive deals
– Actively look out for promotions while shopping
– Notice and purchase private labels
– Shopping trip is less pre-planned
– Enjoy shopping
What are the shopping modality
dynamics of the Tenuous
segment?
What are the shopping modality
dynamics of the Tenuous
segment?
Need to be kept engaged with attractive yet functional layout, engaging promotions and wide assortment
Need to be kept engaged with attractive yet functional layout, engaging promotions and wide assortment
IMPLICATIONS
Execute long rolling, attractive promotions that are well advertised in newspapers / flyers
Execute long rolling, attractive promotions that are well advertised in newspapers / flyers
Offer good quality store brands as an alternative to manufacturer brands
Promote / advertise store brands and display them prominently
Offer good quality store brands as an alternative to manufacturer brands
Promote / advertise store brands and display them prominently
Less pre-planned shoppers who enjoy shopping are more easily influenced by in-store triggers.
Entice shoppers to increase spend resulting from impulse purchase through exciting layouts and wider assortments
Less pre-planned shoppers who enjoy shopping are more easily influenced by in-store triggers.
Entice shoppers to increase spend resulting from impulse purchase through exciting layouts and wider assortments
Shopping Modality
•Page 29
•Shopper Trends Training
Shopping Modality : What triggers are activating store choice?
Store Selection Triggers (Past 4 weeks)
All modern trade shoppers
Tenuous
I just went to the closest store 80 82
I shopped at the same store I always do 61 41
I shopped at a store that a colleague, friend or relative had recommended 10 9
I checked the newspaper or flyers for coupons and went to the store with the attractive deals 36 48
I chose the store that I'd seen advertised recently 10 9
I heard of a new store and decided to try it 13 13
I was visiting friends/ family and went to a store that they usually shop at 10 9
•Page 30
•Shopper Trends Training
Promotional Sensitivity
All modern trade
shoppersTenuous
I change stores based on which one I think has the best promotions that trip
18 20
I very seldom change stores, but when shopping, I actively search for promotions
25 30
I regularly buy different stores because of promotions 10 10
I only buy promotions when I already like the store 22 22
Promotion rarely change my store choices 24 19
Shopping Modality : Promotional Sensitivity & Price Awareness
Price Awareness
All modern trade
shoppersTenuous
I know all the prices of the grocery items I buy regularly 30 31
I know the prices of most of the items and always notice when the price changes
31 28
I don't necessarily know all the prices but I generally notice when the price changes
27 29
I don't know about or notice the prices of grocery items 11 12
•Page 31
•Shopper Trends Training
Shopping Modality : Planned shopping and Browsing Behavior
Planned Shopping Trip
All modern trade
shoppersTenuous
I usually plan what I want to buy and never buy additional items
4 2
I usually plan what I want to buy, but sometimes buy additional items
34 29
I usually plan what I want to buy, but always buy additional items
35 37
I usually do not plan what I want to buy before I shop 27 31
Browsing
All modern trade
shoppersTenuous
I like to take my time, and browse all parts of the store 18 17
I go up and down all the aisles, and pick up items I want when I see them
25 24
I generally know which parts of the store have the items I want, and just visit them
31 32
I know what I want, and go straight to where is, and get out as quickly as possible
26 27
•Page 32
•Shopper Trends Training
Shopping Modality : Shopping Pleasure & Private Label Disposition
Shopping Pleasure
All modern trade
shoppersTenuous
I really enjoy shopping 19 24
I like shopping 58 63
Shopping is a chore but is not a difficult one 12 5
I quite dislike shopping 11 8
I really hate shopping 1 0
Private Label Awareness & Purchase
All modern trade
shoppersTenuous
Spontaneously awareness of private label stores 62 81
Purchased private label store in past 4 weeks 45 65
•Page 33
•Shopper Trends Training
• To keep the Tenuous shoppers engaged, increase focus on fresh food, ice cream and milk powder.
• Wide product range, better quality, attractive promotions and engaging layout in these categories can help prevent defection.
Shopping Modality : Categories purchased at modern trade
Buy category most often at modern trade
All modern trade shoppers(%)
Tenuous
Fresh fruit & vegetables 12 125
Fresh meat or chicken 19 111
Fresh fish or seafood 16 138
Carbonated soft drinks 22 118
Ice Cream 14 129
Biscuits 48 108
Milk Powder 19 121
Instant Coffee 56 98
Savoury snacks 25 112
Laundry Detergent 87 97
Shampoo 86 97
Moisturizer 65 98
(Indexed to all modern trade shoppers)
•Page 34
•Shopper Trends Training
High (Focus)
Average (No skew)
Low (Avoid)
Consumer Profile : Household Profile & Education
EducationAll modern
trade shoppers(
%)
Tenuous
Primary or less 28 100
Secondary 23 122
High School Diploma 32 103
University degree and above
16 69
(Indexed to all modern trade shoppers)
Number of HH membersAll modern
trade shoppers(%
)
Tenuous
1-3 43 102
4-5 38 97
6 or higher 19 100
Household IncomeAll modern
trade shoppers(%
)
Tenuous
Low 33 118
Med 38 87
High 29 93
•Page 35
•Shopper Trends Training
High (Focus)
Average (No skew)
Low (Avoid)
Consumer Profile : Grocery Shopping Role & Marital Status
(Indexed to all modern trade shoppers)
Grocery Shopping RoleAll modern
trade shoppers(%
)
Tenuous
Primary 61 110
Influencer 39 85
Martial StatusAll modern
trade shoppers(%
)
Tenuous
Single 25 112
Married 70 99
•Page 36
•Shopper Trends Training
Foresight THREAT Attraction Retaining Switchers GROWTHMedium Medium Medium Medium
Threat Potential > Growth Potential
Focus Strengthen store equity among Tenuous and prevent defection
TENUOUS : STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL PLAN
Saliency Maintain saliency - spontaneous awareness
Store Associations
Strengthen coverageImprove layoutWiden assortmentExecute aggressive price / promotion strategies
Cross store Affinity
Defend Tenuous from defecting to Retailer A and Retailer B
Strategy for Combating Defection
•Page 37
•Shopper Trends Training
TENUOUS : STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL PLAN
Shopping Modality
• Tenuous Segment is experimental and therefore they need to be kept engaged with attractive yet functional layout, engaging promotions and wide assortment
• They actively scan newspapers / flyers for promotions and keep a look out for promotions while shopping. Execute long rolling, attractive promotions that are well advertised in newspapers / flyers
• They notice and purchase private labels. Offer good quality private labels and aggressively promote / advertise them and support them with prominent displays.
• Tenuous segment enjoys shopping and is their shopping trips are less pre-planned, making them more susceptible to in-store triggers. Entice this segment to increase spend resulting from impulse purchase through exciting layouts and wider assortments
• To keep the Tenuous segment engaged, increase focus on Fresh fruits / vegetables, fresh meat / chicken, ice cream and milk powder
Strategy for Combating Defection
•Page 38
•Shopper Trends Training
Strategy for Combating Defection
TENUOUS : STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL PLAN
Targeting Tenuous segment is somewhat skewed towards lower income and lower education and therefore these segments should be targeted.
•Page 39
•Shopper Trends Training
Q&A Session
Winning Brands Foresight