Digital PublishingWhat it is. How we get started.

Auckland – 31 March 2009Wellington – 1 April 2009

Christchurch – 2 April 2009

Thanks to our sponsors

Today’s Programme

• 9:00-1:00pm Presentations

• 1:00-2:00pm Working Lunch

• 2:00pm Open Forum

– Special session: Google Book Settlement

– Quickfire Case Studies

– Open Forum/Q&A

• 4:00pm Wrap-up

The Rise and Fall and Rise of Ebooks

Martin TaylorDigital Publishing Forum

digitalpublishing.org.nz

Thanks to our sponsors

What we'll cover

The drivers of the industry today

Why the rise of ebooks will be different this time

Where’s the money?

Some (almost) free things to get you started today

The technology drivers1971 – ebook 'invented' by Michael Hart, Project Gutenberg

1978 - PC

1992 - 'Web 1.0'

1999-2002 – ‘Year of the ebook’

2004 - Web 2.0

Now – wider trends will drive ebook adoption

Smartphones – Apple, Google Android, Blackberry, Palm

Mobile Web

Cloud computing and decline of PC

New screen technologies and device types

Ebook readers todayAmazon Kindle 2(approx 500,000 sold,USA only)

Sony Reader (400,000 sold,US, UK)

Apple iPhone / iPod Touch(30 million soldIn 80 countries)

Books feature strongly in iPhone App store downloads

4th by downloadsWeek of

1 March 09

Coming up

Fujitsu FLEPia colour ‘e-paper mobile terminal’

Plastic LogicLarge e-ink displays due mid-2009 with wireless, touchscreen

E-ink can be printed onto

flexible surfaces

Netbooks may become a viable reading platform

Technology adoption lifecycle

Rogers bell curve

Source: New York Times 10 Feb 2008

US consumer technology adoption

Two markets for e-reading• Short, casual reading

• Longer reading, in-depth, immersed experience

• Amazon targets these two markets with its Kindle strategy

– Kindle ebook reader, Kindle for iPhone

• E-reading doesn't have to be better than paper, just better for some situations

• Casual reading market opportunity is immediately available in NZ

In summary: Reasons it will be different this time

Reading technology will be good enough Wireless web Likely format standard - ePub Experience from the false start in early 2000s Amazon

and Sony .. and Apple .. and Google ..

.. Which means ... Readers will demand ebooks

How will things change?Some thoughts from TOC ‘09

Readers• 'reading is becoming a social act' - Peter Brantley, Digital

Library Federation, NY

Publishers• must become more reader-centric• 'community builder'• primacy of reader’s positive experience

• “how can we make this the best possible experience for the reader?”

• but key publisher role remains to screen, improve, finance, sell, distribute, nurture 

Where's the money?Less than 1% of trade sales in US

But readers are paying

Books are 100% 'paid content'

Mobile users have been conditioned to pay

But opportunities to monetise a bigger market

Pass-along readers = more buyers

More opportunities to read = more readers

Global market opportunity

Where's the money?US wholesale ebook revenues

December 2008 quarter +100% vs prior year

Source: idpf.org

How the price of an ebook is set

• Based on 'p-book'

• Cost-plus

• Marginal costing

• Market-based – optimise price/volume equation based on buyer behaviour

• Price taker, eg from dominant retailer

• Other models – subscription, 'literature as service', by chapter, loss-leader for p-book, advertising-supported

How much should the ebook edition of a $30 paper book cost?

More than $30

$30

$25

$20

$15

$10

$5

Less than $5

Free

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

% respondents (n=78)

Source: Digital Publishing Forum: digitalpublishing.org.nz – online poll conducted February-March 2009

Where's the money – Getting started Don't over-invest in the start-up Do start early

The cheapest time to buy marketshare is early in a market

Pace yourself – it will take longer than you think Use time to reduce capital needed

Simple steps you can take today Buy an iPhone or iPod Touch ($389)

Install Stanza and start reading Publish and sell your first ebook(s)

smashwords.com or calibre (calibre.kovidgoyal.net) Get your digital rights in order – share of net income? Join a social network and see how they work

facebook.com, linkedin.com, twitter.com Keep learning

Martin's eReport blog – activitypress.com/ereport Mark your diary: Future of the Book / Future of the

Book in Education conference, Auckland 24-25 June

Thanks!

Martin Taylor

web: digitalpublishing.org.nz

email: martin@digitalstrategies.co.nz

blog: activitypress.com/ereport