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[Potential] Regional Development in the Nile River Basin
Ana Elisa CascãoPresentation to TWM Global ProgrammeStockholm – 2nd June 2010
The River(s)
Contribitution to Nile flowsContribitution to Nile flows
Annual (average)
Flood period
(average)
Eastern Nile Basins
(from Ethiopia)
Blue Nile 59% 68%
Tekezze/Atbara 14% 5%
Baro-Akobo/Sobat
13% 22%
Total Ethiopia 86% 96%
Equatorial Nile Basin
White Nile 14% 5%
The Hydrology
The TopographyBlue Nile source
White Nile source
Ethio-Sudan border
Egypt’s
terri
tory
The land/waterscapesEthiopia Sudan
Egypt Uganda
The land/water uses
Film-satellite-trip to the Nileby Bruce Lankford
The Water availability/utilisation
84 bcm / average84 bcm / average
Little utilisation
Little utilisation
How much water is Egypt and Sudan
utilising?
Current water utilisation of the Nile waters
Water allocations defined by the 1959 Agreeement for the Full Utilisation of the Nile Waters
The 1959 Agreement
?
The Basin countries
EGYPTSUDANETHIOPIA +
Equatorial states
Geography
Geography
Geography
Material power
Material power
Material power
Bargaining power
Bargaining power
Bargaining power
Ideationalpower
Ideationalpower
Ideationalpower
Power asymmetries
The enduring conflict
Control
Contribution
Utilisation
Donwstream
U
pstream
Allocation
Equitable utilisation
DevelopmentBenefits- Sharing
Towards Cooperation
Donwstream Upstream
Hydropolitics
(HYDROPOLITICAL) REGIONAL SECURITY
COOPERATION:Development opportunities
Basin-wide approachInvestment projectsLegal negotiations
Donors support
CONFLICT:Asymmetric water-sharing / utilisation
Non-inclusive water agreements (contested) Uneven water developments
Securitisated hydropolitics
Past
Since mid-
1990s
The cooperation process
since 1999 1997-2007 2011!?
Two-track process
NILE BASIN INITIATIVE COOPERATIVE FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT
Nile Basin Initiative
GOAL
Benefit-Sharing Paradigm
NBI Operational Structure
NBI ‘philosophy’
NBI Programs
NBI Donors
NBI Time framework
NBI, 2009
NBI: successes and failures
SHARED VISION
SHARED VISION
INVESTMENT PROJECTS
INVESTMENT PROJECTS
NBI: successes and failures
GOVERNANCE
GOVERNANCE
The legal negotiations
New Agreement Renegotiation of volumetric
allocations Prior use Acquired rights Prior Notification “New water” No-harm Principle
River Basin Organisation
STATUS QUO
New Agreement Renegotiation of volumetric
allocations New uses Acquired rights Prior Notification Investment Equitable and reasonable
utilisation Principle River Basin Organisation
STATUS QUO
?
DOWNSTREAM RIPARIANSDOWNSTREAM RIPARIANS UPSTREAM RIPARIANSUPSTREAM RIPARIANS
NILE COOPERATIVE
FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT
[...]
Article 14b: “(...) the Nile Basin States therefore agree, in a spirit of cooperation, to work together to ensure
that all states achieve and sustain water security and not to significantly affect the water security
of any other Nile Basin State."
Egypt/Sudan proposal:“(...) the Nile Basin States therefore agree,
in a spirit of cooperation, to work together to ensure that all states achieve and sustain water security and not to adversely affect the water security
and current uses and rights of any other Nile Basin State.”
[...]
2007-2010: The deadlock
No water
allocations
included in the
agreement
POTENTIAL
Collective bargaining power
Challenge/Pressure
Balance of power
Changes in the status quo
Framework for ‘equitable utilisation’ (institutionalisation)
LIMITS
Agreement without Egypt?
Implementation challenges
Egypt’s response
Geopolitics
Donors behaviour
Access to investment
2010: The big challenge!
Meanwhile...
Meanwhile...
Meanwhile...
Meanwhile...
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Cascão 2009
What next?
