Public OpinionAP Government

Learning Objectives• What is public opinion?• Are public opinion polls accurate?• Political socialization• Changes in public opinion over the years• How public opinion impacts public policy• Voter turnout and public opinion

What is Public Opinion?• Public opinion: How people

think or feel about a particular issue, candidate, or institution within a population (state, nation, region, etc.)

• Not easy to measure—changes quickly and among locales

• Politicians: “What the people want”—this is generally public opinion

Measured by Polls• Random sampling used

• Small number of people are surveyed (a few thousand—depends on the poll)

• Random—allows surveyors to make inferences about the entire population• Have a margin of error +/- 3% per 1000 surveyors

• Pollsters need to pose reasonable questions that are worded fairly (other wise can influence results)

• Pollsters have to ask people about issues that the person being surveyed are informed

• Examples: Wall St. Journal/NBC News Poll

How Opinions Differ• Intensity: Degree to which people feel strongly

about issues• Just lost a job? You’ll probably feel strongly about

economic issues

• Opinion saliency: some people care more about certain issues than other people do (Some issues are more relevant to some than others)

• Opinion stability: the steadiness or volatility of opinion on an issue

These all change over time—What do believe Americans believed was the nation’s most pressing issue on October 29, 1929; December 8, 1941; September 12, 2001?

Political Socialization—How do we get these opinions?

• Political socialization: the process by which personal and other background traits influence one’s views about politics and government

• Family: Party identification of your family is absorbed, although children become more independent-thinking with time

• Religion: Families form and transmit political beliefs through their religious tradition

• School: Early AND later years (and into college)—how can you NOT be influenced by great Social Studies teachers?

• Media: Selective exposure • Others: racial background, workplace, community,

Let’s look at some examples

The Gender Gap: Differences in Political Views of Men and Women

The Changing College Student

Generational Gaps on the Issues

Survey by Washington Post/Henry J. Kaiser Foundation/Harvard University, August 2-September 1, 2002, as reported in Elizabeth Hamel et al., "Younger Voters," Public Perspective, May/June 2003, p. 11.

Table 7.4: African American and White Opinion

Table 7.6: How Liberals and Conservatives Differ

How does this impact politics?

Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information

• Role of Polls in American Democracy• Help politicians figure out public

preferences.• Politicians can create their own polls• Exit Polls- used by the media to predict

election day winners.• Polls reflect the policy agenda—

problems the people inside and outside of government believe must be addressed.

• This can change quickly:• “Mission Accomplished” May 2003: 72%

approval of the invasion of Iraq• By 2008, it was 30%• Gun control laws after Newtown? Now?

Who has influence over public opinion?

25%

•Attentive Public

40%

•Part-Time Citizens

35%

•Political Know-Nothings

Can American Democracy survive?

How do these 25% get involved?

• Protest: non-violent (tea party) & violent (US Civil War; Egypt)

• $$$ to PAC’s or campaigns• Influence others• Working for candidates• Voting (turnout has increased)• Party affiliation? More Independents (swing voters)

• Who votes? Let’s take a look

1. Shelby County v. Holder2. Candidate-centered politics

Discussion topics: