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Current and Future Vulnerability of Hurricane Strom Surge and Sea Level Rise in Sarasota County, Florida
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CURRENT & FUTURE VULNERABILITY OF SARASOTA COUNTY, FL, TO HURRICANE STORM
SURGE & SEA LEVEL RISE
Tim Frazier, Penn State University
Brent Yarnal, Penn State University
Nathan Wood, U.S. Geological Survey
Introduction
Goal Develop a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework that integrates geospatial analysis and stakeholder input to facilitate enhanced community resilience through planning.
– Vulnerability assessment including SLR – Decision-support methodology incorporating scientific
understanding with value-based human dynamics– Inject SLR scenarios into long-range planning activities
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Study Area
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 1 SLOSH
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 1 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 1 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 1 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 1 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 2 with SLOSH
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 2 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 2 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 2 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 2 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 3 with SLOSH
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 3 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 3 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 3 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 3 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 4-5 SLOSH
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 4-5 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 4-5 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 4-5 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 4-5 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
All Categories with SLR
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Bee RidgeDesoto Lakes
EnglewoodFruitville
Gulf Gate EstatesKensington Park
Lake SarasotaLaurel
Longboat KeyNokomis
North PortNorth Sarasota
OspreyPlantation
Ridge Wood HeightsSarasota
Sarasota SpringsSiesta Key
South Gate RidgeSouth Sarasota
South VeniceSouthgate
The MeadowsVamo
VeniceVenice Gardens
Warm Mineral SpringsUnincorporatedSarasota County
Percent of Total Population in Surge Zone - Category 1
SLOSH
Plus 30
Plus 60
Plus 90
Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Bee RidgeDesoto Lakes
EnglewoodFruitville
Gulf Gate EstatesKensington Park
Lake SarasotaLaurel
Longboat KeyNokomis
North PortNorth Sarasota
OspreyPlantation
Ridge Wood HeightsSarasota
Sarasota SpringsSiesta Key
South Gate RidgeSouth Sarasota
South VeniceSouthgate
The MeadowsVamo
VeniceVenice Gardens
Warm Mineral SpringsUnincorporatedSarasota County
Percent Total Population in Surge Zone - Category 2
SLOSH
Plus 30
Plus 60
Plus 90
Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Bee RidgeDesoto Lakes
EnglewoodFruitville
Gulf Gate EstatesKensington Park
Lake SarasotaLaurel
Longboat KeyNokomis
North PortNorth Sarasota
OspreyPlantation
Ridge Wood HeightsSarasota
Sarasota SpringsSiesta Key
South Gate RidgeSouth Sarasota
South VeniceSouthgate
The MeadowsVamo
VeniceVenice Gardens
Warm Mineral SpringsUnincorporatedSarasota County
Percent Total Population in Surge Zone - Category 3
SLOSH
Plus 30
Plus 60
Plus 90
Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Bee RidgeDesoto Lakes
EnglewoodFruitville
Gulf Gate EstatesKensington Park
Lake SarasotaLaurel
Longboat KeyNokomis
North PortNorth Sarasota
OspreyPlantation
Ridge Wood HeightsSarasota
Sarasota SpringsSiesta Key
South Gate RidgeSouth Sarasota
South VeniceSouthgate
The MeadowsVamo
VeniceVenice Gardens
Warm Mineral SpringsUnincorporatedSarasota County
Percent Total Population in Surge Zone - Category 4/5
SLOSH
Plus 30
Plus 60
Plus 90
Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Bee RidgeDesoto Lakes
EnglewoodFruitville
Gulf Gate EstatesKensington Park
Lake SarasotaLaurel
Longboat KeyNokomis
North PortNorth Sarasota
OspreyPlantation
Ridge Wood HeightsSarasota
Sarasota SpringsSiesta Key
South Gate RidgeSouth Sarasota
South VeniceSouthgate
The MeadowsVamo
VeniceVenice Gardens
Warm Mineral SpringsUnincorporatedSarasota County
Percent Population Over 65 in Surge Zone- Category 3
SLOSH
Plus 30
Plus 60
Plus 90
Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Bee RidgeDesoto Lakes
EnglewoodFruitville
Gulf Gate EstatesKensington Park
Lake SarasotaLaurel
Longboat KeyNokomis
North PortNorth Sarasota
OspreyPlantation
Ridge Wood HeightsSarasota
Sarasota SpringsSiesta Key
South Gate RidgeSouth Sarasota
South VeniceSouthgate
The MeadowsVamo
VeniceVenice Gardens
Warm Mineral SpringsUnincorporatedSarasota County
Percent Female Head of Households in Surge Zone- Category 3
SLOSH
Plus 30
Plus 60
Plus 90
Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Bee RidgeDesoto Lakes
EnglewoodFruitville
Gulf Gate EstatesKensington Park
Lake SarasotaLaurel
Longboat KeyNokomis
North PortNorth Sarasota
OspreyPlantation
Ridge Wood HeightsSarasota
Sarasota SpringsSiesta Key
South Gate RidgeSouth Sarasota
South VeniceSouthgate
The MeadowsVamo
VeniceVenice Gardens
Warm Mineral SpringsUnincorporatedSarasota County
Percent Tax Parcels in Surge Zone - Category 1
SLOSH
Plus 30
Plus 60
Plus 90
Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Bee RidgeDesoto Lakes
EnglewoodFruitville
Gulf Gate EstatesKensington Park
Lake SarasotaLaurel
Longboat KeyNokomis
North PortNorth Sarasota
OspreyPlantation
Ridge Wood HeightsSarasota
Sarasota SpringsSiesta Key
South Gate RidgeSouth Sarasota
South VeniceSouthgate
The MeadowsVamo
VeniceVenice Gardens
Warm Mineral SpringsUnincorporatedSarasota County
Percent Tax Parcels in Surge Zone - Category 2
SLOSH
Plus 30
Plus 60
Plus 90
Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Bee RidgeDesoto Lakes
EnglewoodFruitville
Gulf Gate EstatesKensington Park
Lake SarasotaLaurel
Longboat KeyNokomis
North PortNorth Sarasota
OspreyPlantation
Ridge Wood HeightsSarasota
Sarasota SpringsSiesta Key
South Gate RidgeSouth Sarasota
South VeniceSouthgate
The MeadowsVamo
VeniceVenice Gardens
Warm Mineral SpringsUnincorporatedSarasota County
Percent Tax Parcels in Surge Zone - Category 3
SLOSH
Plus 30
Plus 60
Plus 90
Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Bee RidgeDesoto Lakes
EnglewoodFruitville
Gulf Gate EstatesKensington Park
Lake SarasotaLaurel
Longboat KeyNokomis
North PortNorth Sarasota
OspreyPlantation
Ridge Wood HeightsSarasota
Sarasota SpringsSiesta Key
South Gate RidgeSouth Sarasota
South VeniceSouthgate
The MeadowsVamo
VeniceVenice Gardens
Warm Mineral SpringsUnincorporatedSarasota County
Percent Tax Parcels in Surge Zone - Category 4/5
SLOSH
Plus 30
Plus 60
Plus 90
Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
±
Sarasota County, Florida: Land Use 2050
Focus Groups
• 33 Participants
• Divided into subgroups– Business– Environmental– Planners– Facilities & infrastructure– Government officials
• Presentation of research
• Assign task
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
SLOSH Output: All Categories
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Category 3 With 30, 60, 90, 120, cm of SLR
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Results: Overall
• Location of development
• Location urban service boundary
• Infrastructure inside hazard zones
• Cost of shifting development
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Results: Business
• ID beach specific businesses
• Rebuilding with FEMA restrictions
• Moving critical & essential facilities
• Imposing mitigation restrictions
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Results: Environmental
• Mitigate SLR impacts on environmental areas
• Transfer development rights
• Develop land swaps
• Replenish wetlands for surge mitigation
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Results: Planners
• Increase density outside hazards zones
• Incentives to steer development
• Strategies to retreat from coast
• Limited by economic realities
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Results: Facilities & Infrastructure
• Mitigate now– Move dated
infrastructure– Ensure functional
flexibility– Revise existing
plan
• Plan better for future– Cautiously place
infrastructure in hazard zones
– Evacuation
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Results: Government Officials
• Evaluate placement of urban service boundary
• Mitigation need vs. cost of moving (facilities & infrastructure)
• Locate high density residential outside hazard zones
• Transportation add more N to S
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Conclusions
• Development constricted to hazards zones
• Specific adjustments– Relax urban service boundary– Steer development out of
hazards zones– Relocate/replace infrastructure– Explore evacuation alternatives
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
Urban growth boundaries in coastal communities could contribute to hurricane hazards exposure
Hurricane risk perceptions & preparedness among Sarasota business ownersPeter D. HoweDepartment of GeographyThe Pennsylvania State University
Business locations
Online survey
• Developed after interviews with business owners
• E-mail recruitment
• 252 responses
– 23% response rate
Responding businesses
Risk perceptions• Perceived damage
severityCategory 1: – wind damage: ‘minor’
– flood damage: ‘none’
Category 3:
- wind damage: ‘moderate’
- flood damage: ‘minor’
Category 5:
- wind damage: ‘catastrophic’
- flood damage: ‘major’
- Developed a business disaster recovery plan
- Made arrangements to move the business to another location in case of damage
- Permanently moved your business to another location to reduce risk of damage
- Obtained an emergency generator for use if electric power fails
- Backed up computer data
– Attended meetings or received written information on hurricane preparedness
– Talked with those working in your business about what to do in case of a hurricane
– Developed a plan to notify employees– Taken action to flood-proof or wind-
proof your facility– Purchased flood insurance for your
business– Purchased business interruption
insurance– Stored water– Stored fuel or batteries– Stored critical inputs– Developed a business emergency plan
Preparedness
Median: 8measures implemented
Differences in experience
Flood risk perception
Preparedness index
“The more events that you've been through, the better educated you are.
Out here...our changeover in business and ownership is fairly high. So you have a lot of people that are new thathaven't experienced different situations” (Respondent 6, owner)
Spatial differencesWind risk perception Flood risk perception Preparedness index
Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals
Mea
n pr
epar
edne
ss in
dex
Risk perception / preparedness gap
• Perceived adaptation efficacy
• Perceived self-efficacy
“Being located where I am, even in aCategory 1 storm...we're probablygoing to have a water issue.
So the degree to which we try toharden our buildings...we haven'tplaced a lot of emphasis on it.
Because if I'm looking at protectingthis building against a Category 3, 4,5 hurricane, wind is not going tobe the issue.
It's going to be water...where we'resitting right now will be full of water.
And there's no way for me reallyto prevent that type of damage.”(Owner of business located on a barrier island)
AcknowledgementsStorm surge and sea-level rise scenarios: Tim Frazier, Nathan Wood, and Brent Yarnal
Survey recruitment: Greater Sarasota Chamber of Commerce
Partial support provided by:National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Department of Geography, The Pennsylvania State University