CURRENT & FUTURE VULNERABILITY OF SARASOTA COUNTY, FL, TO HURRICANE STORM

SURGE & SEA LEVEL RISE

Tim Frazier, Penn State University

Brent Yarnal, Penn State University

Nathan Wood, U.S. Geological Survey

Introduction

Goal Develop a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework that integrates geospatial analysis and stakeholder input to facilitate enhanced community resilience through planning.

– Vulnerability assessment including SLR – Decision-support methodology incorporating scientific

understanding with value-based human dynamics– Inject SLR scenarios into long-range planning activities

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Study Area

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 1 SLOSH

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Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 1 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise

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Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 1 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise

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Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 1 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise

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Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 1 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise

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Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 2 with SLOSH

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Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 2 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise

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Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 2 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise

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Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 2 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise

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Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 2 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise

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Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 3 with SLOSH

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Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 3 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise

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Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 3 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise

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Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 3 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise

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Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 3 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise

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Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 4-5 SLOSH

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Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 4-5 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise

±

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 4-5 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise

±

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 4-5 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise

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Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 4-5 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise

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Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

All Categories with SLR

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bee RidgeDesoto Lakes

EnglewoodFruitville

Gulf Gate EstatesKensington Park

Lake SarasotaLaurel

Longboat KeyNokomis

North PortNorth Sarasota

OspreyPlantation

Ridge Wood HeightsSarasota

Sarasota SpringsSiesta Key

South Gate RidgeSouth Sarasota

South VeniceSouthgate

The MeadowsVamo

VeniceVenice Gardens

Warm Mineral SpringsUnincorporatedSarasota County

Percent of Total Population in Surge Zone - Category 1

SLOSH

Plus 30

Plus 60

Plus 90

Plus 120

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bee RidgeDesoto Lakes

EnglewoodFruitville

Gulf Gate EstatesKensington Park

Lake SarasotaLaurel

Longboat KeyNokomis

North PortNorth Sarasota

OspreyPlantation

Ridge Wood HeightsSarasota

Sarasota SpringsSiesta Key

South Gate RidgeSouth Sarasota

South VeniceSouthgate

The MeadowsVamo

VeniceVenice Gardens

Warm Mineral SpringsUnincorporatedSarasota County

Percent Total Population in Surge Zone - Category 2

SLOSH

Plus 30

Plus 60

Plus 90

Plus 120

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bee RidgeDesoto Lakes

EnglewoodFruitville

Gulf Gate EstatesKensington Park

Lake SarasotaLaurel

Longboat KeyNokomis

North PortNorth Sarasota

OspreyPlantation

Ridge Wood HeightsSarasota

Sarasota SpringsSiesta Key

South Gate RidgeSouth Sarasota

South VeniceSouthgate

The MeadowsVamo

VeniceVenice Gardens

Warm Mineral SpringsUnincorporatedSarasota County

Percent Total Population in Surge Zone - Category 3

SLOSH

Plus 30

Plus 60

Plus 90

Plus 120

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bee RidgeDesoto Lakes

EnglewoodFruitville

Gulf Gate EstatesKensington Park

Lake SarasotaLaurel

Longboat KeyNokomis

North PortNorth Sarasota

OspreyPlantation

Ridge Wood HeightsSarasota

Sarasota SpringsSiesta Key

South Gate RidgeSouth Sarasota

South VeniceSouthgate

The MeadowsVamo

VeniceVenice Gardens

Warm Mineral SpringsUnincorporatedSarasota County

Percent Total Population in Surge Zone - Category 4/5

SLOSH

Plus 30

Plus 60

Plus 90

Plus 120

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bee RidgeDesoto Lakes

EnglewoodFruitville

Gulf Gate EstatesKensington Park

Lake SarasotaLaurel

Longboat KeyNokomis

North PortNorth Sarasota

OspreyPlantation

Ridge Wood HeightsSarasota

Sarasota SpringsSiesta Key

South Gate RidgeSouth Sarasota

South VeniceSouthgate

The MeadowsVamo

VeniceVenice Gardens

Warm Mineral SpringsUnincorporatedSarasota County

Percent Population Over 65 in Surge Zone- Category 3

SLOSH

Plus 30

Plus 60

Plus 90

Plus 120

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bee RidgeDesoto Lakes

EnglewoodFruitville

Gulf Gate EstatesKensington Park

Lake SarasotaLaurel

Longboat KeyNokomis

North PortNorth Sarasota

OspreyPlantation

Ridge Wood HeightsSarasota

Sarasota SpringsSiesta Key

South Gate RidgeSouth Sarasota

South VeniceSouthgate

The MeadowsVamo

VeniceVenice Gardens

Warm Mineral SpringsUnincorporatedSarasota County

Percent Female Head of Households in Surge Zone- Category 3

SLOSH

Plus 30

Plus 60

Plus 90

Plus 120

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bee RidgeDesoto Lakes

EnglewoodFruitville

Gulf Gate EstatesKensington Park

Lake SarasotaLaurel

Longboat KeyNokomis

North PortNorth Sarasota

OspreyPlantation

Ridge Wood HeightsSarasota

Sarasota SpringsSiesta Key

South Gate RidgeSouth Sarasota

South VeniceSouthgate

The MeadowsVamo

VeniceVenice Gardens

Warm Mineral SpringsUnincorporatedSarasota County

Percent Tax Parcels in Surge Zone - Category 1

SLOSH

Plus 30

Plus 60

Plus 90

Plus 120

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bee RidgeDesoto Lakes

EnglewoodFruitville

Gulf Gate EstatesKensington Park

Lake SarasotaLaurel

Longboat KeyNokomis

North PortNorth Sarasota

OspreyPlantation

Ridge Wood HeightsSarasota

Sarasota SpringsSiesta Key

South Gate RidgeSouth Sarasota

South VeniceSouthgate

The MeadowsVamo

VeniceVenice Gardens

Warm Mineral SpringsUnincorporatedSarasota County

Percent Tax Parcels in Surge Zone - Category 2

SLOSH

Plus 30

Plus 60

Plus 90

Plus 120

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bee RidgeDesoto Lakes

EnglewoodFruitville

Gulf Gate EstatesKensington Park

Lake SarasotaLaurel

Longboat KeyNokomis

North PortNorth Sarasota

OspreyPlantation

Ridge Wood HeightsSarasota

Sarasota SpringsSiesta Key

South Gate RidgeSouth Sarasota

South VeniceSouthgate

The MeadowsVamo

VeniceVenice Gardens

Warm Mineral SpringsUnincorporatedSarasota County

Percent Tax Parcels in Surge Zone - Category 3

SLOSH

Plus 30

Plus 60

Plus 90

Plus 120

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bee RidgeDesoto Lakes

EnglewoodFruitville

Gulf Gate EstatesKensington Park

Lake SarasotaLaurel

Longboat KeyNokomis

North PortNorth Sarasota

OspreyPlantation

Ridge Wood HeightsSarasota

Sarasota SpringsSiesta Key

South Gate RidgeSouth Sarasota

South VeniceSouthgate

The MeadowsVamo

VeniceVenice Gardens

Warm Mineral SpringsUnincorporatedSarasota County

Percent Tax Parcels in Surge Zone - Category 4/5

SLOSH

Plus 30

Plus 60

Plus 90

Plus 120

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

±

Sarasota County, Florida: Land Use 2050

Focus Groups

• 33 Participants

• Divided into subgroups– Business– Environmental– Planners– Facilities & infrastructure– Government officials

• Presentation of research

• Assign task

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

SLOSH Output: All Categories

±

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 3 With 30, 60, 90, 120, cm of SLR

±

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Results: Overall

• Location of development

• Location urban service boundary

• Infrastructure inside hazard zones

• Cost of shifting development

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Results: Business

• ID beach specific businesses

• Rebuilding with FEMA restrictions

• Moving critical & essential facilities

• Imposing mitigation restrictions

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Results: Environmental

• Mitigate SLR impacts on environmental areas

• Transfer development rights

• Develop land swaps

• Replenish wetlands for surge mitigation

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Results: Planners

• Increase density outside hazards zones

• Incentives to steer development

• Strategies to retreat from coast

• Limited by economic realities

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Results: Facilities & Infrastructure

• Mitigate now– Move dated

infrastructure– Ensure functional

flexibility– Revise existing

plan

• Plan better for future– Cautiously place

infrastructure in hazard zones

– Evacuation

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Results: Government Officials

• Evaluate placement of urban service boundary

• Mitigation need vs. cost of moving (facilities & infrastructure)

• Locate high density residential outside hazard zones

• Transportation add more N to S

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Conclusions

• Development constricted to hazards zones

• Specific adjustments– Relax urban service boundary– Steer development out of

hazards zones– Relocate/replace infrastructure– Explore evacuation alternatives

Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Urban growth boundaries in coastal communities could contribute to hurricane hazards exposure

Hurricane risk perceptions & preparedness among Sarasota business ownersPeter D. HoweDepartment of GeographyThe Pennsylvania State University

Business locations

Online survey

• Developed after interviews with business owners

• E-mail recruitment

• 252 responses

– 23% response rate

Responding businesses

Risk perceptions• Perceived damage

severityCategory 1: – wind damage: ‘minor’

– flood damage: ‘none’

Category 3:

- wind damage: ‘moderate’

- flood damage: ‘minor’

Category 5:

- wind damage: ‘catastrophic’

- flood damage: ‘major’

- Developed a business disaster recovery plan

- Made arrangements to move the business to another location in case of damage

- Permanently moved your business to another location to reduce risk of damage

- Obtained an emergency generator for use if electric power fails

- Backed up computer data

– Attended meetings or received written information on hurricane preparedness

– Talked with those working in your business about what to do in case of a hurricane

– Developed a plan to notify employees– Taken action to flood-proof or wind-

proof your facility– Purchased flood insurance for your

business– Purchased business interruption

insurance– Stored water– Stored fuel or batteries– Stored critical inputs– Developed a business emergency plan

Preparedness

Median: 8measures implemented

Differences in experience

Flood risk perception

Preparedness index

“The more events that you've been through, the better educated you are.

Out here...our changeover in business and ownership is fairly high. So you have a lot of people that are new thathaven't experienced different situations” (Respondent 6, owner)

Spatial differencesWind risk perception Flood risk perception Preparedness index

Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals

Mea

n pr

epar

edne

ss in

dex

Risk perception / preparedness gap

• Perceived adaptation efficacy

• Perceived self-efficacy

“Being located where I am, even in aCategory 1 storm...we're probablygoing to have a water issue.

So the degree to which we try toharden our buildings...we haven'tplaced a lot of emphasis on it.

Because if I'm looking at protectingthis building against a Category 3, 4,5 hurricane, wind is not going tobe the issue.

It's going to be water...where we'resitting right now will be full of water.

And there's no way for me reallyto prevent that type of damage.”(Owner of business located on a barrier island)

AcknowledgementsStorm surge and sea-level rise scenarios: Tim Frazier, Nathan Wood, and Brent Yarnal

Survey recruitment: Greater Sarasota Chamber of Commerce

Partial support provided by:National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Department of Geography, The Pennsylvania State University