Low Carbon Business Breakfast: Putting The ‘New Into Renewables, Innovation Centre, Bath, Tuesday 18th March 2014.

LOW CARBON ENERGY TRANSITIONS: Advances in Developing and Adopting Viable

Renewable Energy Technologies

Geoffrey P. Hammond

Professor of Mechanical Engineering and Founder Director of I•SEE,

University of Bath, Bath. BA2 7AY. [Email: ensgph@bath.ac.uk]

LCSW, Bath

CONTENTS

World Energy Transitions: 1850-2050

Energy and the Environment: the challenge of climate change

Drivers for Change in the UK Energy Sector

UK Transition Pathways to a Low Carbon Future

Micro-generators for Decentralised Heat and Power Supply

integrated or ‘whole systems’ appraisal

barriers to take-up, including economics

Concluding Remarks LCSW, Bath

WORLD ENERGY TRANSITONS – Shell ‘Dynamics as Usual’ Scenario

LCSW, BathSource: Hammond & Waldron (Proc. IMechE Part A: JPE, 2008)

ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Energy sources of various kinds heat and power human

development

Unwanted ‘side’ effects

acid rain / global warming

Need for sustainable development

sustainable energy strategy (energy efficiency, renewables and micro-generators, and possibly nuclear power)

Conflict with energy market liberalisation LCSW, Bath

DRIVERS FOR CHANGE IN THE UK ENERGY SECTOR

GLOBAL WARMING

Much more stringent global ‘greenhouse gas’ budgets/targets likely to come into play, e.g., to meet the 2008 Climate Change Act that

commits the UK Government to reducing CO2 emissions by 80%

over 1990 levels by 2050 But fuel poverty and competitiveness remain constraints

FOSSIL FUEL SUPPLIES More use of natural gas in the UK now worsens diversity Depletion of North Sea oil and natural gas supplies Natural gas/oil imports: perhaps 2/3 of UK gas imported by

2020. Shale gas might have a role after that.

NUCLEAR POWER DECLINE, due to the decommissioning of old reactors

ENERGY SECURITY WILL BECOME MORE CHALLENGING

Source: updated from the PIU Energy Review Team (Cabinet Office, 2001) LCSW, Bath

MULTI-LEVEL PERSPECTIVE ON TRANSITION PATHWAYS

LCSW, BathSource: Foxon et al. (TFSC, 2010)

LANDSCAPE

NEW REGIME

NICHES

OLD REGIME

ENERGYSOURCES

DELIVERYNETWORKS

SERVICES

ENERGYINFRASTRUCTURE

VALUES

STRATEGIES

BEHAVIOUR

REGULATION

POLICY MARKETS

ENERGYSOURCES

DELIVERYNETWORKS

SERVICES

ENERGYINFRASTRUCTURE

VALUES

STRATEGIES

BEHAVIOUR

REGULATION

POLICY MARKETS

NOW 2060

INTERNATIONALFACTORS

ENVIRONMENTALFACTORS

CULTURALFACTORS

NICHESOLUTIONS

ALTERNATIVESAND OPTIONS

INNOVATION

SOCIALEXPERIMENTATION

TRANSITION PATHWAYS

LANDSCAPE

NEW REGIME

NICHES

OLD REGIME

ENERGYSOURCES

DELIVERYNETWORKS

SERVICES

ENERGYINFRASTRUCTURE

VALUES

STRATEGIES

BEHAVIOUR

REGULATION

POLICY MARKETS

ENERGYSOURCES

DELIVERYNETWORKS

SERVICES

ENERGYINFRASTRUCTURE

VALUES

STRATEGIES

BEHAVIOUR

REGULATION

POLICY MARKETS

NOW 2060

INTERNATIONALFACTORS

ENVIRONMENTALFACTORS

CULTURALFACTORS

NICHESOLUTIONS

ALTERNATIVESAND OPTIONS

INNOVATION

SOCIALEXPERIMENTATION

TRANSITION PATHWAYS

ENERGYSOURCES

DELIVERYNETWORKS

SERVICES

ENERGYINFRASTRUCTURE

VALUES

STRATEGIES

BEHAVIOUR

REGULATION

POLICY MARKETS

ENERGYSOURCES

DELIVERYNETWORKS

SERVICES

ENERGYINFRASTRUCTURE

VALUES

STRATEGIES

BEHAVIOUR

REGULATION

POLICY MARKETS

ENERGYSOURCES

DELIVERYNETWORKS

SERVICES

ENERGYINFRASTRUCTURE

VALUES

STRATEGIES

BEHAVIOUR

REGULATION

POLICY MARKETS

ENERGYSOURCES

DELIVERYNETWORKS

SERVICES

ENERGYINFRASTRUCTURE

VALUES

STRATEGIES

BEHAVIOUR

REGULATION

POLICY MARKETS

NOW 2060

INTERNATIONALFACTORS

ENVIRONMENTALFACTORS

CULTURALFACTORS

NICHESOLUTIONS

ALTERNATIVESAND OPTIONS

INNOVATION

SOCIALEXPERIMENTATION

TRANSITION PATHWAYS

INTERNATIONALFACTORS

ENVIRONMENTALFACTORS

CULTURALFACTORS

NICHESOLUTIONS

ALTERNATIVESAND OPTIONS

INNOVATION

SOCIALEXPERIMENTATION

TRANSITION PATHWAYS

INTERNATIONALFACTORS

ENVIRONMENTALFACTORS

CULTURALFACTORS

NICHESOLUTIONS

ALTERNATIVESAND OPTIONS

INNOVATION

SOCIALEXPERIMENTATION

TRANSITION PATHWAYS

Market Rules (MR)

Energy companies focus on large-scale technologies: nuclear power, offshore wind & capture-ready coal

Minimal interference in market arrangements

Central Co-ordination (CC)

Greater direct government involvement in governance of energy systems, e.g., issuing tenders for tranches of low-carbon generation

Focus on centralized generation technologies

Thousand Flowers (TF)

More local, bottom-up diversity of solutions

Local leadership in decentralized options LCSW, Bath

UK CORE TRANSITION PATHWAYS

LCSW, Bath

UK ELECTRICITY GENERATION MIX - ‘MARKET RULES’ TRANSITION PATHWAY

Source: Foxon et al. (TFSC, 2010)

LCSW, Bath

‘MARKET RULES’ TRANSITION PATHWAY – 2050 CARBON EMISSIONS.

Source: Foxon et al. (TFSC, 2010)

UK Electricity Carbon Emissions, 2050 - per kWh

Gas CCS11%

Nuclear1%

CHP27%

Wind (offshore)

2%

Coal CCS56%

Pumped Storage

1%

Wind (onshore)

1%

LCSW, Bath

UK ELECTRICITY GENERATION MIX - ‘THOUSAND FLOWERS’ TRANSITION PATHWAY

Source: Foxon et al. (TFSC, 2010)

LCSW, Bath

‘THOUSAND FLOWERS’ TRANSITION PATHWAY – 2050 CARBON EMISSIONS

Source: Foxon et al. (TFSC, 2010)

LCSW, Bath

UK TRANSITION PATHWAYS - POWER SECTOR TOTAL CARBON EMISSIONS

Source: Hammond & O’Grady (Proc. Instn Civil. Engrs: Energy, 2014)

LCSW, Bath

UK TRANSITION PATHWAYS – LIFE-CYCLE POLLUTANT EMISSIONS (Single Score LCA)

Source: Hammond et al. (Energy Policy, 2013)

ACTING LOCALLY/THINKING GLOBALLY - The Climate Change/Energy Hierarchy

LCSW, Bath

Encourage sustainable lifestyles________________________

Use less energy

Use renewable energy to provide energy services

Supply energy efficiently e.g., use combined heat and power (CHP) and community heating

________________________

Offset residual carbon dioxide emissions that cannot be avoided by other means

Source: ESD, Corsham

ENERGY LOSSES FROM THE CENTRALISED POWER NETWORK

LCSW, BathSource: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory

58%

5%

1.5%

Conversion losses

Primary energy input

100%~35%Electricity delivered

Transmission losses Distribution losses

DISTRIBUTED ENERGY GENERATION - 1

DECENTRALISED FORMS OF ELECTRICITY AND HEAT GENERATION – FACILITATED BY ‘SMART’ GRIDS AND

NETWORKS

Large industrial CHP plants

Onshore and offshore wind ‘farms’

Widespread use of bioenergy plants and biofuels (e.g., biodiesel or bioethanol)

Micro-generation (kW scale): * embedded or standalone solar PV * small-scale wind generators * domestic-scale CHP plants * heat pumps – from ground, air or water sources

LCSW, Bath

DISTRIBUTED ENERGY GENERATION - 2

LCSW, BathSource: Hammond & Waldron (Proc. IMechE Part A: JPE, 2008)

DELIVERED ENERGY TO MEET END-USES IN THE UK RESIDENTAIL SECTOR

LCSW, BathSource: Allen & Hammond (Energy, 2010)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Space heating Water heating Cooking Lighting and Appliances

PJ

ElectricityGas

Solid fuel

Oil

MICRO-GENERATION

Micro-generation could be the most radical form of energy system decentralisation -

Many technological ‘evangelists’ have focused on solar thermal, solar PV, small-scale wind turbines,

heat pumps, and micro-CHP plants.

They would blur the distinction between energy supply and demand.

Consumers may become more active participants in energy system development and operation.

Source: after Dr Jim Watson (SPRU, 2003) LCSW, Bath

LCSW, Bath

RESIDENTIAL MICRO-GENERATIONE

lect

ricity

ge

nera

tion

Micro-wind (Proven)

Solar PV

Hea

t g

ener

atio

n

Solar thermal

Heat pumps (HeatKing): air & ground source

Com

bine

d he

at a

nd p

ower

(Microgen)

Micro-CHP: Internal combustion

Stirling Fuel cell

SOME ESTIMATED MICRO-GENERATOR OUTPUTS

LCSW, BathSource: Allen & Hammond (Energy, 2010)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

'Open' micro-wind 'Urban' micro-wind Solar PV Solar hot water

MICRO-GENERATOR TYPE

AN

NU

AL

OU

TP

UT

(kW

h)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

AN

NU

AL

OU

TP

UT

(G

J)

Energy Exergy

(1.7m rotor diameter, 600W at 12m/s) (15m2, 2.1kWp m-Si) (2.8m2 flat plate)

ELECTRICITY (WORK) OUTPUT TO HOUSE

HOT WATER (HEAT)OUTPUT TO END USER

LCSW, BathSource: Allen et al. (Proc. ICE - Energy, 2008

ENERGY PAYBACK PERIODS (PBP) FOR SELECTED MICRO-GENERATORS

LCSW, BathSource: Allen et al. (Proc. ICE - Energy, 2008)

ENVIRONMENTAL LIFE-CYCLE ASSESSMENT OF SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV) UNITS

LCSW, BathSource: Allen et al. (Proc. ICE - Energy, 2008)

FINANCIAL APPRAISAL OF SELECTED MICRO-GENERATORS

BARRIERS TO MICRO-GENERATION

Lack of information and awareness.

Planning permission problems.

Overcoming the cost barriers:

clean energy cash back for electricity – now largely addressed via the ‘feed-in tariffs (FiT) scheme; implemented in April 2010.

clean energy cash back for renewable heat – via the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI).

Expensive compared with conventional technology.

Source: UK Energy Review and Microgeneration Strategy (2006);

The UK Low Carbon Transition Plan (2009) LCSW, Bath

CHALLENGES TO A DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEM

Need to maintain our reliable system (currently the reliability of the power network is around 98%; according to ofgem).

Potential savings due to a reduced need for investment in large power stations cannot be captured until the UK has reliable capacity in small-scale plant – may take many years.

Technology needed for truly distributed infrastructure, e.g., storage, is still emerging.

High costs of the small-scale systems. LCSW, BathSource: Allen et al. (Applied Energy, 2008)

LCSW, Bath

ENVIRONMENTAL FOOTPRINTS OF VARIOUS POWER SECTOR GENERATORS

0

50

100

150

200

250

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biofuel Other Naturalf lowhydro

Wind Solar PV

Fuel

En

viro

nm

en

tal F

oo

tpri

nt (

gh

a/G

Wh

)

Carbon Embodied Energy Transport Built Land Water Waste

Source: Alderson et al. (Energy, 2012)

CONCLUDING REMARKS 1

Specification & analysis of transition pathways & branching points could inform actions needed & consensus building for a shared vision

Analysis shows implications of uncertainties, including

Future progress in different energy technologies Role of ICTs to help facilitate change through a ‘smart grid’ Role of changes in actors’ habits, practices & wider social values And how they might interact with technological change

Shows pathways with different/shifting roles for large & small government, market & civil society actors

& how they might lead to alternative visions & realities of a low- carbon society

Throws light on opportunities & challenges of a ‘more electric’

future

LCSW, BathSource: : Foxon et al. (TFSC, 2010); Hammond & Pearson, Energy Policy, 2013)

CONCLUDING REMARKS 2

An energy system with more highly distributed micro-generators could clearly help to reduce carbon emissions.

Importance of network developments and smart metering systems to facilitate distributed energy generation.

Need to ensure that all micro-generators are technologically and economically proven.

These are new technologies and therefore need support – consequently incentives are important (e.g., FiT and the RHI). Such support mechanisms need to be applied consistently over time.

The main barriers include lack of knowledge and awareness, capital costs, and planning issues.

LCSW, BathSource: adapted from Allen et al. (Applied Energy, 2008)

LCSW, Bath

The work presented here has been supported by the Research Councils’ Energy Programme (RCEP):

as part of the SUPERGEN ‘Highly Distributed Energy Futures’ (HiDEF) Consortium [under Grant EP/G031681/1];

the ‘Realising Transition Pathways’ (RTP) Consortium [under Grant EP/K005316/1];

and their predecessor grants.

THANK YOU

END OF THE PRESENTATION