Principles for Building a Modular Global Christian Educational Ecosystem

Principles for Building a Modular

Global Christian Educational Ecosystem

Dr. Andrew SearsPresident, City Vision University

[email protected]

https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewsears This talk is at: https://youtu.be/BdbfvMWl-_o

Slideshare: https://goo.gl/aZGDDp

http://www.cityvision.edu/

mailto:[email protected]

https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewsears


https://youtu.be/BdbfvMWl-_o

https://youtu.be/BdbfvMWl-_o

https://goo.gl/aZGDDp

https://goo.gl/aZGDDp

The Need 1: Rapid Growth of Higher Education Globally

100 MillionStudentsin 2000

263 MillionStudentsin 2025(84% of growth in the developing world)

Sources Karaim, R. (2011). Expanding higher education: should every country have a world-class university. CQ Global Researcher, 5(22), 525–572.Lutz, W., & KC, S. K. (2013). Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections. UNDP-HDRO Occasional Papers, (2013/04). Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdf

137 Million New Students Per Year in Developing Countries by 2025

The Need 2: The Rise of Non-Western Christianity

1800 1900 1970 2000 2007 2025 -

200,000,000

400,000,000

600,000,000

800,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,200,000,000

1,400,000,000

1,600,000,000

1,800,000,000

2,000,000,000

Christian Membership by Region

West SouthStatus of Global Mission 2014, Todd Johnson http://www.gordonconwell.edu/resources/documents/statusofglobalmission.pdf

1900 1970 2000 2007 20250%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

21%

59%

86%91%

99%

79%

41%

14%9%

1%

Growth of Christianity by Region

Status of Global Mission 2014, Todd Johnson http://www.gordonconwell.edu/resources/documents/statusofglobalmission.pdf

The Need 3: Consolidation & Christian Mega-universities

Liberty U43%

Grand Canyon U39%

All of CCCU19%

Estimated Christian Higher Education Growth Since 2005Total Growth: 175,808 students

Sources: Grand Canyon & Liberty U self-reporting, CCCU Enrollment Report.

Will Education Consolidation follow Media Consolidation?

Possible Future of Higher Education in 2030?Consolidation & Platform Coopetition

Image Source: Wikimedia

State Owned Mega-universities with 1 million+ Students

Technology PlatformEducational Networks

Global Christian Education Platform

Three Possible FuturesTechnology PlatformDominant Future(40% decline in CHE)

State Mega-UniversitiesDominant Future(40% decline in CHE)

Christian Global EducationalPlatform Growth Future(400% growth in CHE)

Framing the Challenge

In the face of these trends, how can CHE achieve the preferred future of dramatic global growth?

Global HE Growth

Consolidation

Growth of Christianity

in the MajorityWorld

10 million+ studentsat $1,000/student

Radically Affordable Mobile Education

The Need for Disruptive Innovation

TraditionalChristianHigher

Education(A few million students

At $10,000/student)

10 xMore Users

1/10th

Cost

Radically AffordableBlended Education

100 million+ studentsat $50/student

Mobile Vision: Accredited Mobile Courses to Millions

Courses

Global Christian College Credit Consortium (GC4)

The Bible App Quality Mobile Courses

+

Accreditation

+

Concept 1: Role of Modularity & Unbundling in Disruptive Innovation

Unbundled (Modular) vs. Interdependent Architectures Over Time


Interdep

enden

t

Archite

cture

Unbundled Architecture

Modular Universities =

Lego Cities

Monolithic Bundled Degrees Today

Unbundled Education = Lego Blocks

Modular Degrees & Credentials =Lego KitsInteroperable

Standards

Source: http://www.christenseninstitute.org/unlocking-stackable-global-credentials/http://www.christenseninstitute.org/a-standards-strategy-for-stackable-global-credentials/

http://www.christenseninstitute.org/unlocking-stackable-global-credentials/

http://www.christenseninstitute.org/a-standards-strategy-for-stackable-global-credentials/

Unbundling & Rebundling Strategy for Christian Higher Ed

TransformativeExperience

Access toOpportunity

Metacognition& Skills

Knowledge Acquisition(content)

Univ.Microcampus

es

OpenEducation

IndustryCertificatio

nsLinkedIn & ePortfolios

MOOCs& Apps

Univ. Accepting Alt.

Credit

Univ. Top-Up Degrees

University

CoursesBooks & PaidCourseware

ChristianCoursewa

re

Internships

Alternative Ed Providers

Alternative Credit

Pathways

Transformative Courses

Church & Ministry

Microcampuses

Vocational Qualifications

(EQF)

Student Coaches

Christian Worldview Program

Designers

• Course market becomes more like book and software markets • Reduce cost & improve quality through outsourcing and partnerships• Christian content becomes more modular and less interdependent where possible• University becomes system integrator of content and tech platforms.

Online Faculty

Employer Partnerships

Specialization increases productivityand reduces costsCourse mentors often can be Church-based

Partnerships with modular providers (especially in underdevelopedcommunities) creates jobs, reduce cost & improve quality

Improve signaling & networking of “bottom half” to new value networks

Vertically IntegratedUniversity

Virtually Integrated UniversityTransformativeExperience




Transformation is a core competency of the Church

Mentoring

Small Groups

Dead Capital$9.3 trillion

400 million in India with No Identification

UndocumentedAlternativeEducation

Trillions of $ of lost value?

Concept 2: Technology Presents an Unprecedented Opportunity to Expand and Document Alternative Education

Is Education More Secular or Christian Globally?

Perry L. Glanzer, "Dispersing the Light: The Status of Christian Higher Education around the Globe," Christian Scholar's Review 43 (2013): 321-43.Status of Global Mission 2014, Todd Johnson http://www.gordonconwell.edu/resources/documents/statusofglobalmission.pdf

It depends on how you frame the question

The Majority of Christian Education is Alternative Education

© Copyright Showeet.com

ACCREDITED EDUCATION

NONTRADITIONAL, BUTACCREDITABLE EDUCATION(GROWING DRAMATICALLY)

Bible Colleges

Christian Liberal ArtsColleges

Christian Universities

Seminaries

Bible Institutes Ministry Experience

Professional ExperienceAlternative Education Courses

Bible Studies

Sermons

Educational Discipleship Programs

Christian Radio,TV, Websites, Books & Apps

Small Groups

NONTRADITIONAL, NON-ACCREDITABLE EDUCATION

PRIMARILYPARACHURCH

PRIMARILYCHURCH

Correspondence & Continuing Ed

Conferences

http://www.mapeet.com/

Industry Map: Supporting a Healthy Christian Tertiary Educational Ecosystem

ACCREDITED HIGHEREDUCATION

NONTRADITIONAL, BUTACCREDITABLE EDUCATION

MOOCs & Open EdUdemy, Coursera, EdX, Futurelearn, Open2study,Open University, Udemy, Khan Academy, DuolingoAlison, YouTube, iTunesU, Open Learn, OLI

Christian Mega UniversitiesLiberty, Grand Canyon

Christian UniversitiesCCCU, IAPCHE, Overseas Council

Paid CoursewarePearson, Mcgraw-Hill, Lynda.com, Skillshare, Pluralsight, Dream DegreeAcrobatiq, Cengage, CogBooks, Flat World

Bible CollegesABHE Schools, ICETE, ATS

Online Christian UniversitiesCCCU, TRACS, DEAC, IAPCHE, ICHE

Alternative Credit ProvidersStraighterline, Saylor, Ed4OnlineEdX, JumpCourse, Pearson, SofiaUC Irvine Extension, Modern States

Christian Free & Open CoursesThirdMill.org, ChristianUniversity.org, Harvestime.org, Global University Global Reach, Aqueductproject.orgOpen Biola, Covenant Seminary, Regent Luxvera, Christian Leaders Institute, TransformingtheChurchOpenSeminary.com, BiblicalTraining.org, Coram Deo, Multiply Movement, Truthfortheworld.org

Commercial Christian CoursewareRight Now Media, Lumerit, Logos Mobile Ed, Zondervan, BibleMesh.com, Ligonier Connect

Bible Institutes10’s of thousands globally

Open Textbookssaylor.org/books, openstaxcollege.org, courses.candelalearning.com/catalog/lumen collegeopentextbooks.org, open.umn.edu/opentextbooks/

Missions/Ministry Trainingi.e. YWAM U Nations

Vocational Qualification Providers>50% of global market, 10’s of thousands of Training Centers

Ministry & Professional ExperiencePrior Learning Assessment

Christian Continuing EducationInsight.org, Lifepointemedia.com, Lifeway.com, Livingontheedge.org, Precept.org, Sampsonresources.com, Sampson.ed.com, Walkthru.org, Answersingenesis.org, Bsfinternational.org, Christiancounselingceu.com

Sec

ular

P

artn

ers

SeminariesATS

TER

TIA

RY E

DU

CAT

ION

Home School College Creditveritycollegeeducation.org, creditsbeforecollege.com Unaccredited Ordination Training

Berean School, Lamp Seminary

Church & Ministry Micro-CampusesSoutheastern, Northwest, Kings University, Kirkland, Beulah Heights,

CaCHE, Virtues Campus, Foundation University

Secular Micro-campusesKepler, Minerva, Coursera Learning Hubs, edX U.Lab, Khan Lab School, Bridge International Academies

http://thirdmill.org/

http://christianuniversity.org/

http://harvestime.org/

http://www.globalreach.org/

http://aqueductproject.org/

http://open.biola.edu/

http://www.covenantseminary.edu/resources/


http://luxvera.regent.edu/



https://www.christianleadersinstitute.org/

https://www.transformingthechurch.org/

http://www.openseminary.com/

http://www.biblicaltraining.org/

http://www.coramdeo.com/


https://s3.amazonaws.com/multiplymovement.com/index.html

https://s3.amazonaws.com/multiplymovement.com/index.html

http://truthfortheworld.org/bcc/

https://www.rightnowmedia.org/

http://www2.knowledgeelements.com/partial-list-of-keen-courses.html

https://www.logos.com/mobile-ed

http://courses.zondervanacademic.com/

http://biblemesh.com/

https://connect.ligonier.org/


http://www.insight.org/CEU

http://www.lifepointemedia.com/

http://www.lifeway.com/ceu

http://livingontheedge.org/home/acsi/

http://www.precept.org/ceu

http://www.sampsonresources.com/

http://www.sampson.ed.com/

http://www.walkthru.org/ceu

http://www.answersingenesis.or/cec/courses

https://www.bsfinternational.org/studies

http://christiancounselingceu.com/

We can’t repeat the mistakes of the past by expecting the majority world to wear the “suits” of Western accreditation, but there still must be appropriate standards and signals needed.

Source: Wikipedia Article on Assimilation of Native Americans

Higher Education vs. Tertiary Education vs. Vocational Education

Components of a Global Christian Educational Ecosystem

Church & Ministry Micro-campusesUnaccredited Christian Models: CaCHE, Virtues Campus, Foundation University

Accredited Christian Models: Southeastern, Northwest, Kings University, Kirkland, Beulah Heights, etc.Secular Models: Kepler, Minerva, Coursara Learning Hubs, edX U.Lab, Khan Lab School, Bridge International, African

Virtual University

Accredited Degree Pathways Any Accredited Institution Accepting Alternative Credit: City Vision, Secular (Thomas Edison,

Excelsior), etc.Alternative Credit MechanismsGC4, ICHE, GlobalAccreditation.com, ACE Credit, Vocational Qualifications, Standardized Tests, PLA,

Articulation AgreementsSee: Christenson Institute Articles (part 1, part 2)

CoursewareChristian Free: ThirdMill.org, ChristianUniversity.org, Harvestime.org, BiblicalTraining.org, Open Biola, Aqueductproject.org,

TransformingTheChurch.org, Covenant Seminary, Regent Luxvera, Christian Leaders Institute, Global Reach, Coram Deo, Truthfortheworld, Open Church

Christian For Fee/Commercial: BibleMesh.com, Right Now Media, Lumerit, Logos Mobile Ed, Zondervan, Ligonier Connect “Secular” Courseware: Udemy, Coursera, EdX, Futurelearn, Open2study, Open University, Udemy, Khan Academy, Duolingo, Alison, Open Learn,

OLI, LyndaDigital Distribution: Apps, Web/LMS, MOOC platform, Bible App, YouTube, iTunes, digital devices, print, church & ministry partnerships, corporate

partnershipsDelivery Method: offline-only, blended, online-only, mobile-only

Bible Schools

Christian Liberal Arts

Colleges


Seminaries

Unbundled Disruptive EcosystemBundledTraditional Consultants/System Integrators/Solution Providers: Nonprofit (CaCHE); Commercial: (BibleMesh.com, Lumerit)

Students (2016): 5 millionProjected Annual Growth: -5% to +5%

Non-Credit Students (2016): 1 million For Credit Students (2016): 10,000Projected Annual Growth: 50% to 1,000%

DominantBusiness Model:For Fee

$10 to$5,000/yr

DominantBusiness Models:Fremium or Donor-Based

What we can influence

http://www.christenseninstitute.org/blog/unlocking-stackable-global-credentials/

















https://open.life.church/









Global Christian College Credit Consortium (GC4)Path to a $5,000 degree

Bachelor’s DegreeCity Vision University Business, Addiction Studies, Missions,

Nonprofit Management or other InstitutionCity Vision University, Vision International Ministry or Qualifi Business or Other Level

5GC4 Level 4

(Vision International Ministry or Saylor Academy Business)

GC4 Level 3(Vision International Ministry, Saylor Academy Business or CaCHE Global Transformational Entrepreneurship)

Level 3Freshman

Level 4Sophomore

$3,500

$3,500 (CVU)or $100 +partner tuition

$100 +partner tuition

$100 +partner tuition

City VisionDEAC Accredited University

GC4 (in TechMission) as Qualifi Qualification

UniversityDegree(1 year)

Level 5Junior

GC4 Plan: Provide a Global Alternative Path for Course Level Accreditation Global Christian College Credit Consortium (GC4) is work area of

CHIEA to provide course level accreditation to ministry schools◦ We are doing this under Qualifi, which offers accreditation under the vocational

frameworks structure of Ofqual in the UK. Level 3, 4 & 5 certificates/diplomas may be recognized in many commonwealth countries, and are considered accredited for transfer credit evaluation.

◦ May also develop multilateral alliance of Christian articulation agreements similar to CASE

◦ GC4 legally resides as a program of the Christian nonprofit TechMissionProcess and Requirements

◦ Review of curriculum by TechMission and Qualifi to ensure that it meets standards

◦ Requires that faculty graders have accredited award at the same level as those they are grading (rather than a level above as most accreditation)

◦ Partner must provide documentation trail of assignments and grading. Right now this means tracking assignments and grading in an online or mobile system.

www.globalchristiancollege.org Theoretical Framework: Video, my Clayton Christensen Institute blog post (Part 1, Part 2)

http://www.qualifi.net/

https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/ofqual

https://wcetfrontiers.org/2016/06/02/the-case-for-cace/

http://www.globalchristiancollege.org/

http://www.slideshare.net/techmission/developing-a-modular-global-platform-strategy-for-christian-higher-education

http://christenseninstitute.org/unlocking-stackable-global-credentials/


Lean Startup Hypothesis Testing on Christian EcosystemWhat’s the best strategy for Christian Courses?

◦ Long Tail vs. World’s Best or both with long tail dominatingWhat will be the Dominant Distribution Platform for Christian

Courses?◦ World’s Best Distribution: Existing MOOC platforms, Christian MOOC platform,

other◦ Long Tail Distribution: open courses Web, app stores, traditional online

education, media platforms (iTunes/YouTube), long tail MOOCs (Udemy/iTunesU)◦ Delivery Method: offline-only, blended, online-only, mobile-only, all

What is the Dominant Business Model for Christian Courses?◦ Philanthropy Driven: Bible App, Third Millennium, Khan Academy ◦ University Marketing Investment (Global Branding/Recruitment): Existing

MOOCs, Open Courses◦ Fees/Subscription: Lynda.com, Logos, Bible Mesh, Udemy, Right Now Media

What mechanisms will be used to provide credit and how important will they be? ◦ Mechanism for Credit: Traditional College Credit, GC4, In Country Qualifications, ACE (or

similar)

Note: Items in bold or crossed out represent the author’s best guess, but only experiments can accurately tell.

Steps of Quality Improvement in Disruptive Innovation


2. Complete Open Courses

1. Open Videos/Books

3.Certificate Courses

4. Microdegrees

5. Alternative Credit Courses

6. Blended Learning at Microcampuses for Accredited Vocational Diplomas

7. Blended Learning at Microcampuses for University Degrees

8. Blended Personalized Learning from Millions of Modular Adaptive Courses for University Degrees

Concept 3: The Long Tail: The 80/20 Rule becomes the 60/40 Rule after the Internet

80% of profit comes from 20% of products

60% of profit comes from 40% of products

Pop

ular

ity

Products

The Long Tail

Blockbuster Hits

UnpopularYouTube Content

Effects of the Long Tail & Higher EducationLong Tail Increases Diversity of Content

◦Video Stores (Blockbuster): 80% of rentals were recent “blockbusters,” only carried 75 documentaries

◦Amazon: carries 17,061 documentaries (of a possible 40,000)◦Long Tail of Search Terms (Website Example): Top 500 search

terms provide 19.5% of visitors 604,916 search terms provide 80.5% of visitors

Non-Western culture voices are largely on the long tail.◦The Internet extends the long tail. It decreases the proportion

controlled by big media and traditional universities from 80% to around 60% which gives more room for non-Western voices.

◦Open strategy maximizes visibility of non-Western voices.

Concept 3: The Long Tail & the Hollowing of the MiddleNewspaper Consolidation as a Case Study for Higher Education

Pre-Internet, some papers were great, some were terrible, most were average.Source: Thompson, B. (2014, March 17). FiveThirtyEight and the End of Average. Retrieved February 16, 2016, from https://stratechery.com/2014/fivethirtyeight-end-average/

Num

ber o

f Com

pani

es

Concept 3: The Long Tail and the Hollowing Out of the Middle Post-Internet: Only two business models as average content is a commodity

2. Long Tail Aggregators1. Best in the WorldSource: Thompson, B. (2014, March 17). FiveThirtyEight and the End of Average. Retrieved February 16, 2016, from https://stratechery.com/2014/fivethirtyeight-end-average/

Num

ber o

f Com

pani

es

Tech Creates Two Tiered Markets with No Middle

Wor

ld’s

Bes

tLo

ng T

ail

Journalism Video Publishing Talks Courses Credentialing

AdaptiveCompetencyBased EducationEcosystem

Traditional Degree


Concept 4: Develop Lean Startup Experiments to Test Options How to Develop a Global Christian Education Platform

Build

MeasureLearnProduct(start with minimum viable product)

Data

PivotMaximizeLoopIteration Speed

Ries, E. (2011). The Lean Startup: How Today’s Entrepreneurs Use Continuous Innovation to Create Radically Successful Businesses (First Edition). Crown Business.

Lean Startup Hypothesis Testing on Christian EcosystemWhat’s the best strategy for Christian Courses?

◦ Long Tail vs. World’s Best or both with long tail dominatingWhat will be the Dominant Distribution Platform for Christian

Courses?◦ World’s Best Distribution: Existing MOOC platforms, Christian MOOC platform,

other◦ Long Tail Distribution: open courses Web, app stores, traditional online

education, media platforms (iTunes/YouTube), long tail MOOCs (Udemy/iTunesU)◦ Delivery Method: offline-only, blended, online-only, mobile-only, all

What is the Dominant Business Model for Christian Courses?◦ Philanthropy Driven: Bible App, Third Millennium, Khan Academy ◦ University Marketing Investment (Global Branding/Recruitment): Existing

MOOCs, Open Courses◦ Fees/Subscription: Lynda.com, Logos, Bible Mesh, Udemy, Right Now Media

What mechanisms will be used to provide credit and how important will they be? ◦ Mechanism for Credit: Traditional College Credit, GC4, In Country Qualifications, ACE (or

similar)

Note: Items in bold or crossed out represent the author’s best guess, but only experiments can accurately tell.

Mapping Best Practices for Christian Courseware

ThirdMill Harvestime

Logos Mobile

Open Biola ChristianUniversity.org

BiblicalTraining.org

BibleMesh

Multiplatform Mobile App, LMS, Web

Web Web, Mobile Web, iTunes Mobile, Web, LMS

Web, App Web

Unbundled All components

Yes No Some components

No. Bundled with Our Daily Bread

No. Bundled as course

No. Bundled as course

Open License Yes, not Creative Commons

Yes No Creative Commons

No No No

Delivery Methods

Online, Blended, Less Designed for Offline

Blended, Offline, Not effective online

No Online Online Online Online

Course Solution

Yes only through LMS

Very limited quizzes

No No Only for fee No quizzes Yes

StandardizedContent

Moderately standardized

Not very standardized

Moderately standardized

Limited packaging as complete courses

Standard topics. Non-standard lengths

Standard topics

Standard topics

Affordability Free Free $300-700/course

Free Free Fee for credit

Free $50-200/course

Quality Excellent Ok Excellent Excellent Excellent Good Excellent

Languages English, Arabic, Mandarin, Russian, Spanish, Indonesian

English, ChineseFrench, Russian, Sinhala, Spanish, Tagalog, Tamil, Thai, Urdu, Portuguese

English English English, Spanish, Portuguese, Chinese, Russian, Arabic

English, Hindi, Swahili, Spanish, Arabic

No exams

Denominations Evangelical & reformed

Pentecostal Varies by course Evangelical Evangelical Evangelical Evangelical

Questions for DiscussionAssume Christian Higher Education (CHE) is about 5% of the global market. As the global market grows from 100 million students (5 million in CHE) in 2000 to 263 million in 2025, just to keep pace and not lose market share, CHE would need to grow globally to 13.25 million (163% growth)…

What role can we play to help global CHE grow to that level?

What would we have to do differently?

How do we take steps toward that goal?

How do we grow all components of the ecosystem?

What are other key assumptions in building an ecosystem we need to test?

Is this the best way to frame the challenge?

Outline of Free Course in Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education1. Disruptive Innovation Theory Applied to Higher Education2. Understanding What’s Driving Change in Traditional Higher

Education3. Economics of Traditional Online Education4. Emerging Markets and Courseware Platforms5. Unbundling and Rebundling Strategies in Higher Education6. Unbundling and the Changing Role of Faculty7. Lean Startup for Education8. Demographic and Economic Trend Analysis9. College Access & the Race between Technology and Education10. Change Agents & Diffusion of InnovationAvailable on Udemy, iTunes U, YouTube & SlideshareJoin the Christian Higher Education Innovation Alliance email group at: groups.google.com/forum

https://www.udemy.com/disruptive-innovation-in-higher-education/learn/

https://itunes.apple.com/us/course/disruptive-innovation-in-higher/id1079486490

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLXa3JWoXGD0XCfNIzLaJ8bT2uQ1ZKy2Co

http://www.slideshare.net/techmission/disruptive-innovation-in-higher-education-full-course-slides

https://groups.google.com/forum/

Asset Mapping, Gap Analysis and Strategy to Expand Christian Higher

Education GloballyView Prezi Presentation at: http://prezi.com/dew6-xudm7jg/

View Mindmap at: https://atlas.mindmup.com/2016/11/611c25c0a28a11e6818d4941b123936e/innovation_in_christian_higher_education/index.html

http://prezi.com/dew6-xudm7jg/




https://atlas.mindmup.com/2016/11/611c25c0a28a11e6818d4941b123936e/innovation_in_christian_higher_education/index.html





A Moonshot Vision for Growth of Global Christian Higher

EducationDr. Andrew Sears

President, City Vision Universitywww.cityvision.edu

[email protected]://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewsears

http://www.cityvision.edu/

mailto:[email protected]



Three Possible FuturesTechnology PlatformDominant Future(40% decline in CHE)

State Mega-UniversitiesDominant Future(40% decline in CHE)

Christian Global EducationalPlatform Growth Future(400% growth in CHE)


Adoption Cycle for Post-Secondary Degrees

Degree Market Penetration Globally6.7% (2016)

Traditional Higher Education New Models for Post-Secondary Education

ASU’s as a Model for a Global Christian Educational Ecosystem

The 5,000

12 Disciples

120 Disciples

Jesus’ TieredMinistry Model

The 3Disciples

MicroCampuses& Unbundled Models

Alternative Credit10-50 million

On CampusChristianHigher

Education5 million

ModularBlended Education

5-20 million

GC4, etc.

Courseware 100’s of millions

Global Digital Ecosystembillions

ThirdMil, MOOCS, etc.

Moonshot Vision: 25 Million Students in Accredited Degree Programs by 2030 (400% growth)

Christian DigitalEcosystem

Strategy to Achieve Moonshot Vision: 25 Million Students in Accredited Degree Programs By 2030

(400% growth)

Bachelor’s5-20 million

Alternative Credit10-50 million

Courseware100’s of millions

Christian Digital EcosystemBillions

• College Years 1-3• Average Cost: $100/year• Building on Christian and secular courseware• Microcampus, online and mobile delivery

• Free• First Year Bible Courses• Christian Integration Courses• “Secular” courseware in Christian programs

• Average Cost: $1,000/year• Full range of university degrees

• Christian Use of “Secular” platforms• Bible App• Christian Subscription Services• Platforms to be identified?

• Average Cost: $2,000/year• Transformational Campus Community

Assumptions and Design Parameters for Moonshot Vision 80%+ of growth of CHE will happen in developing countries

◦ Will require price points of $100 to $1,000 per year for CHE◦ Accredited credentials will continue to be important to this market through

2030 and will be essential for access to jobs◦ Primary growth market will be the middle class (4.9 billion by 2030), of which

almost all have affordable broadband mobile internet access by 2030Other Design Parameters

◦ Need to design for online, mobile, blended and offline delivery methods◦ Majority of growth in global CHE will happen in the alternative education

ecosystem models as attendance traditional CHE will either decline or have slight growth

◦ Free, open, unbundled courseware will be foundational for growth◦ Integration between components to provide solutions will be essential

Sources Lutz, W., & KC, S. K. (2013). Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections. UNDP-HDRO Occasional Papers, (2013/04). Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdfOffline and falling behind: Barriers to Internet adoption | McKinsey & Company. http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/high-tech/our-insights/offline-and-falling-behind-barriers-to-internet-adoptionKaraim, R. (2011). Expanding higher education: should every country have a world-class university. CQ Global Researcher, 5(22), 525–572.

http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdf

http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdf

Components of a Global Christian Educational Ecosystem

Church & Ministry Micro-campusesUnaccredited Christian Models: CaCHE, Virtues Campus, Foundation University

Accredited Christian Models: Southeastern, Northwest, Kings University, Kirkland, Beulah Heights, etc.Secular Models: Kepler, Minerva, Coursara Learning Hubs, edX U.Lab, Khan Lab School, Bridge International, African

Virtual University

Accredited Degree Pathways Any Accredited Institution Accepting Alternative Credit: City Vision, Secular (Thomas Edison,

Excelsior), etc.Alternative Credit MechanismsGC4, ICHE, GlobalAccreditation.com, ACE Credit, Vocational Qualifications, Standardized Tests, PLA,

Articulation AgreementsSee: Christenson Institute Articles (part 1, part 2)

CoursewareChristian Free: ThirdMill.org, ChristianUniversity.org, Harvestime.org, BiblicalTraining.org, Open Biola, Aqueductproject.org,

TransformingTheChurch.org, Covenant Seminary, Regent Luxvera, Christian Leaders Institute, Global Reach, Coram Deo, Truthfortheworld, Open Church

Christian For Fee/Commercial: BibleMesh.com, Right Now Media, Lumerit, Logos Mobile Ed, Zondervan, Ligonier Connect “Secular” Courseware: Udemy, Coursera, EdX, Futurelearn, Open2study, Open University, Udemy, Khan Academy, Duolingo, Alison, Open Learn,

OLI, LyndaDigital Distribution: Apps, Web/LMS, MOOC platform, Bible App, YouTube, iTunes, digital devices, print, church & ministry partnerships, corporate

partnershipsDelivery Method: offline-only, blended, online-only, mobile-only

Bible Schools

Christian Liberal Arts

Colleges


Seminaries

Unbundled Disruptive EcosystemBundledTraditional Consultants/System Integrators/Solution Providers: Nonprofit (CaCHE); Commercial: (BibleMesh.com, Lumerit)

Students (2016): 5 millionProjected Annual Growth: -5% to +5%

Non-Credit Students (2016): 1 million For Credit Students (2016): 10,000Projected Annual Growth: 50% to 1,000%

DominantBusiness Model:For Fee

$10 to$5,000/yr

DominantBusiness Models:Fremium or Donor-Based

What we can influence

http://www.christenseninstitute.org/blog/unlocking-stackable-global-credentials/

















https://open.life.church/









Church & Ministry Micro-campuses $1 million to get 500 students to complete an one year alternative

degree program ($2,000/student)

Accredited Degree Pathways$1 million to accept alternative credit with 1,000 degrees completed

($1,000/degree)Alternative Credit Mechanisms$1 million to get 2,000 students with credit accepted by accredited Christian

institutions ($500/student)Courseware Providers$2 million to get 10,000 students in alternative credit programs

($50/student)

Goal: Scale Alternative Credit Ecosystem to add 10,000 students ($50/student)Proposed $5 Million Funding Pilot

Who are potential funders that might support this vision?

Why Take This Approach for a Funding Pilot?The most significant “gap” is to get the components of the Christian

educational ecosystem to work together◦ It is critical to invest in all components of the ecosystem as well as the

connections between them to create solutionsWe need a pilot to “cross the chasm” into mainstream adoption of

alternative education ecosystem◦ We need to conduct “lean startup” experiments to find out how to scale the

alternative Christian education ecosystem◦ We don’t yet know what models will become the dominant solution

“Solutions to many of the world's most difficult social problems don't need to be invented, they only need to be found, funded and scaled”◦ See next presentation on business models

Quote Source: Judith Rodin, president of the Rockefeller Foundation

Characteristics of an Alternative CHE Ecosystem that Crosses the ChasmFree Courseware

◦ B2C: highly usable, mobile-first design, probably built on Open edX (or similar highly-usable, mobile-friendly platform)

◦ B2B: Highly usable mechanisms that enable church-centered distribution

Business Model◦ Will build on free courseware with long-term sustainable funding model◦ Probably less than 10 major Christian players globally, targeting various niches,

each with an investment of $10 to $100 million to achieve critical mass◦ Usability will require tight integration between layers of an unbundled model,

but unclear which layers will be re-bundled in dominant business models◦ Will offer non-credit and for-credit paths

Content ◦ Representing major denominational distinctives (Pentecostal, Reformed, etc.)

and languages ◦ Christian integration into specific fields to get jobs: business, tech, etc.

targeting majority world

Business Model Examples of Unbundling & Rebundling in Christian

Education“Solutions to many of the world's most difficult social problems don't need to be invented, they only need to be found, funded and scaled”

- Judith Rodin, president of the Rockefeller Foundation

Modular Universities =

Lego Cities

Monolithic Bundled Degrees Today

Unbundled Education = Lego Blocks

Modular Degrees & Credentials =Lego KitsInteroperable

Standards

Source: http://www.christenseninstitute.org/unlocking-stackable-global-credentials/http://www.christenseninstitute.org/a-standards-strategy-for-stackable-global-credentials/

http://www.christenseninstitute.org/unlocking-stackable-global-credentials/


Unbundling & Rebundling Strategy for Christian Higher Ed





Univ.Microcampus

es

OpenEducation


nsLinkedIn & ePortfolios

MOOCs& Apps

Univ. Accepting Alt.

Credit

Univ. Top-Up Degrees

University

CoursesBooks & PaidCourseware

ChristianCoursewa

re

Internships

Alternative Ed Providers

Alternative Credit

Pathways


Church & Ministry

Microcampuses


(EQF)

Student Coaches

Christian Worldview Program

Designers

Online Faculty

Employer Partnerships

Vertically IntegratedUniversity

Virtually Integrated UniversityTransformativeExperience




Mentoring

Small Groups

Model 1: Christian Students at 4 Year Secular Universities Campus Groups: Cru, Intervarsity, etc. + Digital Ecosystem

LocalChurc

h

Christian Courseware

Christian Campus Groups

Missions Trips & Ministry

Volunteering

SecularUniversity





Articulation Agreements for

Christian Courses

• Pros: Christians can achieve higher access to opportunity, avoids abandoning secular academia• Cons: Christians in secular universities more likely to lose faith• Gap Analysis & Needs: articulation agreements for Christian courses, Christian courseware targeting this market,

Effectiveness determined by tightness of integration with student experience• Examples: Cru, Intervarsity, etc.

Christian Campus Ecosystem

Model 2: Church/Ministry Microcampus as Alternative to 4 Year University

Microcampus at Local

Church/Ministry

Christian College Courses

Internship Practicum at Ministry or Church

Secular or ChristianUniversity Graduate School





Articulation Agreements for Christian Associate’s

• Pros: Combines complete Christian undergraduate education with ministry involvement, megachurches will have strong offerings here• Cons: Decreased access to opportunity relative to more established universities• Gap Analysis & Needs: scale of organizations pursuing this model, established training & framework for microcampuses• Unbundled Examples: CaCHE, Virtues Campus, Foundation University,

Traditional Examples: Southeastern, Northwest, Kings University, Kirkland, Beulah HeightsSecular Models: Kepler, Minerva, Coursara Learning Hubs, edX U.Lab, African Virtual University

Christian Coursewar

e

Alternative Credit

MOOCs& Apps


Christian Worldview Program Design

JobLocal Church or Ministry Teaching

MinistryMentorin

gSmall Groups

Microcampus Bachelor’s Degrees

Model 3: Church/Ministry Microcampus as Alternative to Community College

Microcampus at Local

Church/Ministry



Secular or ChristianUniversity





Articulation Agreements for Christian Associate’s

• Pros: Combines Christian general education with improved access of secular university• Cons: Christians in secular universities more likely to lose faith, challenges in accepting credit transfer, less integration between years• Gap Analysis & Needs: articulation agreements, courses & organizations focused on this model, established framework for microcampuses• Examples: City Vision’s Associate’s Degrees• Secular Examples: Straighterline, Saylor Academy

Christian Associate’s Degree

Christian Coursewar

e

Alternative Credit

MOOCs& Apps



Last 2 Years

Local Church or Ministry Teaching

MinistryMentorin

gSmall Groups

Model 4: Unbundled Online Degree Completion University (Top-Up Degree Program)








Industry Certifications

• Pros: Provides affordable convenient Christian education as last year or few years of program• Cons: Limited transformation because of lack of physical community• Gap Analysis & Needs: scale of organizations pursuing this model• Examples: City Vision, Secular (Thomas Edison, Excelsior)

Christian Coursewar

e

Alternative Credit

MOOCs& Apps



JobTransfer Credit

Model 5: Theological Institutes Using Coursewareto Become Christian Universities (or Launch Online Colleges)

Transformative Experience on Campus

Locally Developed Courses

Internship Practicum at Ministry, Church or

Marketplace





• Pros: Decreases costs to become Christian University and online college and add degrees beyond theology and Bible• Cons: Outsourcing content will mean less local contextualization, limited languages of courseware• Gap Analysis & Needs: training for schools making this change, organizations supporting this model, pilot models• Examples: unknown


GC4 & OtherAlternative Credit

MOOCs& Apps


Job

Bachelor’s Degrees Online or in other Fields

CampusTheology &Bible Bachelor’s

Global Degree Partnerships


1-3 Years Theology &Bible Courses


Church/Ministry Job

Marketplace Job

Model 6: Christian Educational Outsourcing, Consulting & Multisided Courseware Market

Courseware from Partner Schools





• Pros: Decreases start up cost, effective for low volume, acquire outside expertise, can also help with student recruitment• Cons: Can increase per student cost, dependent on outside expertise• Examples: Christian (Lumerit, BibleMesh), Secular (Pearson, Wiley, Bisk, Learning House, Academic Partnerships, 2U)• Gap Analysis & Needs: scalable cost-effective multisided courseware markets

Courseware Developed by

Consultant

Articulation Agreements

Other Coursewa

re

Accreditor Approval

Other Partner Schools

Outsourced Student Services

Outsourced Christian Program

Designers

Outsourced Online

Faculty by Consultant

Partner School Faculty

Partner School Courses

Provided by Consultant

Univ. Courses

Univ. Faculty & Services

Univ. Degree

Univ. Experience

Provided by Your University

Partner School Course

Accreditation

Model 7: Christian Digital Subscription Services, Church Curriculum & Lifelong Learning


Subscriptions





• Pros: Extremely affordable subscriptions $10-50/month, church-centric distribution• Cons: If there is lack of integration of content with local church community then transformation could be limited• Courseware Subscription Examples: Logos Mobile Ed, ChristianUniversityCertificates.org, Secular (Lynda.com, Great Courses, Skillshare)• Non-Courseware Digital Church Curriculum: RightNow Media, Open Church (free), Group Online• Christian Consumer Digital Subscriptions: Dove, Pureflix, Up Faith, JellyTelly, iBethelTV, Parables TV, Christian Games• Traditional Church Curriculum: Saddleback Pastors.com, Group Publishing, Lifeway Publishing

Alternative Credit

Christian Program Designers

LocalChurch

Top-up Degree

Christian Consumer Digital Subscriptions

Traditional ChurchCurriculum

Program DesignTools

Digital ChurchCurriculum

Ordination

Church-Centric Digital Ecosystem

SundaySchool

Small Groups

Model 8: Dual Enrollment, Early College & Homeschool College

Homeschool


Homeschool Mentoring

Traditional Christian orSecular University orUnbundled Degree Completion Programs





• Pros: Shorten Bachelors time/cost allowing faster access to graduate school that might provide higher access• Cons: Increased expectations on high school students• Gap Analysis & Needs: scale of organizations pursuing this model, established training & frameworks• Examples: Credits Before College, Veritycollegeeducation.org, Lumerit, Dual Enrollment Programs at Most Christian Colleges

Christian Coursewar

e

Alternative Credit

MOOCs& Apps


Homeschool or High School

Courses

YouthGroup

College Credit


Job

Course Mentors (SME)

Credit by Exam & Prior Learning

Degree

PaidCourseware

Credit by Exam orCompetency Evaluation

Documented Competencies

IndustryCertifications

No Offering

Student Mentors Evaluators Program

Faculty Practicum





LocalChurc

h

Christian Coursewar

e

Western Govenor’s Rebundled Program

Optional Self Assembled Components By Individual

Secular Model 1: Western Governors University and Similar CBE Programs

• Pros: Cost effective way for Christians to get credentials needed for jobs• Cons: No mechanism to integrate Christian components, Christian education is an added “cost” to stripped down unbundled model• Gap Analysis & Needs: Christian courseware targeting this market, churches supporting this model

Secular Model 2: Coding Boot Camps

Coding Boot Camp’s Rebundled Program

Mentored Project-Based Learning

Most Current, Highest Demand Contentfrom Top Practitioners

Relationships to

EmployerEmploymentGuarantees

Brand for Recruiting

Raw Brainpower

No OfferingTransformativeExperience




LocalChurc

h

Christian Coursewar

e



Secular Model 3: Vocational Qualifications

Vocational Qualifications Rebundled Program (EQF, RQF, etc.)

No Offering

Level 3

Level4

Top-up Bachelor’s

Degree

Level8

Level5

Level 7

Master’s

Prior Learning Assessment

Doctorate

Vocational Learning Centers

Internships& Externships

Employer

Networks


ns

On-the-jobTraining





LocalChurc

h

Christian Coursewar

e



Principles from Rebundled Business ModelsThe effectiveness of rebundled business models will depend on the

strength of integration between components◦ Campus groups, churches, secular & Christian courseware

Megachurch microcampuses could become dominant rebundling business model for Christian transformation

Some people will assemble unbundled components on their own, but most will prefer to buy predesigned bundles (like Lego kits)

Mashups between business models will be commonIn an unbundled world, getting people to pay for bundled Christian

transformation in CHE may be more challengingWhat will be the dominant business models for CHE in an

unbundled world is yet to be determined