GR2 – Phase 2 of the Agricultural Green Revolution & The Fight Against World Hunger

Section 1 –Overview, Global Population Statistics and Definitions

Margaret Carroll Boardman, Ph.D.Seminar Presented at the Hesburgh International Center

University of Notre DameSponsored by the Reilly Center for Science, Technology & Values and

The International Development Research CouncilFebruary 2010

HeirloomsOrganic

Biotechnology

American Agricultural Revolution Scientific Hybridization

• 1930s Corn Hybridization – Pioneer Hi-Bred

• 1950s Rockefeller Foundation in Mexico

• 1960s-1980s Exportation of the American Agricultural Revolution = Stage 1 Green Revolution

• Wheat hybrids to India• Increased uses of fertilizers, pesticides

• 1968 "Strategy for the Conquest of Hunger“ in Bellagio, Italy

• 1971 formation of CGIAR

• 1990s – Increased member participation from the developing world, United Nations

Traditional farming methods

1990s – Sustainable Development

Phase I – Green Revolution

Phase II – Green Revolution

1956 BT toxin approved for use as an organic pesticide

1962 Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring exposes DDT risks

1970s’ “Back to the Earth” Movement, establishment of the California Certified Organic Farmers and Oregon-Washington Tilth Organic Producers Association

1972 French farmers (Nature et Progrès) build the foundation of IFOAM

1973 FiBL an independent research institute focused on organic agriculture is founded in Switzerland.

1980 USDA Report & Recommendation on Organic Farming

1987 U.S. Congress approves LISA (Low Imput Sustainable Agriculture Program)

1989 National Academy of Science, “Report on the Role of Alternative Farming Methods in Modern Production Agriculture

Organic Biotechnology

Heirlooms

Hybridization1951-53 Rosalind Franklin obtains sharp x-ray photographs of DNA, which leads to the discovery of the structure of DNA by Watson, Wilkins, and Crick.

1962 Watson, Wilkins and Crick awarded Nobel Peace Prize in Physiology, Medicine

1975 – International Meeting of scientists at Asilomar, CA urges adoption of guidelines regulating recombinant DNA experimentation

1980 Diamond v. Chakrabarty, U.S. Supreme Court rules that genetically altered life can be patented

1987 – National Academy of Science concludes transferring of genes between species poses no serious environmental hazard

1987 – 1st field test of GE organism – “Frostban”

Exporting the American Agricultural Revolution – improved hybrid seeds, tractors, mechanized farm equipment. Heavy use of fertilizers, pesticides, insecticides, and herbicides cut down on need for crop rotations, increase yields.

1970 Norman Borlaug is awarded the Nobel Peace Prize

Phase I – Green Revolution

Phase II – Green Revolution

1990 - The Organic Food Production Act of 1990 (7 U.S.C.A. § 6501-22, part of the Farm Bill) required that the USDA develop national standards for organic produce

1992 - USDA appoints a National Organic Standards Board (NOSB) 2002 – The USDA’s National Organic Program (NOP) approves the federal regulatory framework governing organic food.

Organic Biotechnology

Heirlooms

Hybridization1992 US approves commercial production “FlavrSavr”

1996 – 1st commercial generation of GE seeds are planted in the US

2001 International Plant Treaty places all of the plant germplasm collected by CGIAR under the authority of the treaty and the UN

2002 International Rice Genome Sequencing Program completes detailed genome sequence of rice

Phase II – Green RevolutionComparison of Organic v. Biotech Markets

U.S. certified organic cropland

Year Acreage

2000 1,218,905 2005 1,723,271

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Organic Production, National Table 2, U.S. Certified Organic Farmland Acreage, Livestock and Farm Operations, 1992-2005.

U.S. Farmland planted to GE plants

Year Acreage

2000 74,872,930 2005 134,919,538

Source: James Clive, Brief No. 24 – 2001, Global Review of Commercialized Transgenic Crops: 2001, Ithaca, NY: ISAAA, 2001 and James Clive, Brief 35-2006, Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops: 2006 Ithaca, NY: ISAAA, 2006.

Definitions

Biodiversity : The number, variety, and genetic variation of different organisms found within a specified geographic region (or ecosystem). This was coined at the 1986 National Forum on Biodiversity sponsored by the National Academy of Sciences. (For more of the proceedings of this conference see National Forum on BioDiversity, Edward O. Wilson, and Frances M. Peter. Biodiversity. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1988).

Polyculture :The raising at the same time and place of more than one species of plant or animal.

Monoculture: Lessons from the Past, Concerns for the Future

The Irish Potato Famine (1845-1849) Phytophthora infestans, a water mold destroys successive annual potato harvests, killing 1 million people (1/8th of the population) and forcing the emigration of 2 million people.

2010 Pierce’s Disease caused by Xylella fastidosa threatens the California wine industry.

Monoculture:The cultivation of a single crop on a farm or in a region or country

1930

1935

1940

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

U.S. PopulationMillions of people living on the farm

Between 1930-1975, the proportion of the population on farms falls from 39% to 1.8%

The American Agricultural Revolution

Don Paarlberg and Ronald Paarlberg, The Agricultural Revolution of the 20th Century. Ames, IA: Iowa State University, 2000 citing T. W. Schultz, Distortions of Agricultural Incentives. Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press, 1978.

A.D.2000

A.D.1000

A.D.1

1000B.C.

2000B.C.

3000B.C.

4000B.C.

5000B.C.

6000B.C.

7000B.C.

1+ million years

8

7

6

5

2

1

4

3

OldStoneAge New Stone Age

BronzeAge

IronAge

MiddleAges

ModernAge

Black Death — The Plague

9

10

11

12

A.D.3000

A.D.4000

A.D.5000

18001900

1950

1975

2000

2100

Future

Billions

Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).

World Population Growth Through History

World Population Growth, in Billions

Ninth

Eighth

Seventh

Sixth

Fifth

Fourth

Third

Second

First Billion

Number of years to add each billion (year)

All of Human History (1800)

130 (1930)

30 (1960)

15 (1975)

12 (1987)

12 (1999)

14 (2013)

14 (2027)

21 (2048)

Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

Billions

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Less Developed Regions

More Developed Regions

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

Growth in More, Less Developed Countries

Emerging &

Developing

Countries in

Africa, Asia &

Latin America

as a Growing % of

World Population

1950 2050Rank Country or Area Population Country or Area Population

1 China 562,579,779 India 1,656,553,632

2 India 369,880,000 China 1,303,723,332

3 United States 152,271,000 United States 439,010,253

4 Russia 101,936,816 Indonesia 313,020,847

5 Japan 83,805,000 Ethiopia 278,283,137

6 Indonesia 82,978,392 Pakistan 276,428,758

7 Germany 68,374,572 Nigeria 264,262,405

8 Brazil 53,443,075 Brazil 260,692,493

9 United Kingdom 50,127,000 Bangladesh 233,587,279

10 Italy 47,105,000 Congo (Kinshasa) 189,310,849

11 Bangladesh 45,645,964 Philippines 171,964,187

12 France 42,517,690 Mexico 147,907,650

13 Pakistan 39,448,232 Egypt 137,872,522

14 Ukraine 36,774,854 Uganda 128,007,514

15 Nigeria 31,796,939 Vietnam 111,173,583

16 Mexico 28,485,180 Russia 109,187,353

17 Spain 28,062,963 Turkey 100,955,188

18 Vietnam 25,348,144 Japan 93,673,826

19 Poland 24,824,000 Sudan 88,227,761

20 Egypt 21,197,691 Iran 81,490,039

21 Philippines 21,131,264 Germany 73,607,121

22 Turkey 21,121,639 Burma 70,673,160

23 Korea, South 20,845,771 Thailand 69,799,501

24 Ethiopia 20,174,562 France 69,768,223

25 Thailand 20,041,628 Tanzania 66,843,312

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, January 2009

Countries covered later in this presentation as case studies

Developed countries moving down in rank

Top 3 Most Populous Countries in the World1950-2050

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, January 2009

1950

1975

2000

2025

2050

0 500,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,500,000,000 2,000,000,000

United States India

China