Pathway to Early Literacy and Reading Proficiency

PATHWAY TO EARLY LITERACY AND READING PROFICIENCY:

USING BIG DATA TO INFORM PRACTICE AND POLICY

Robert L. F ischer, Ph.D., Seok-Joo Kim, Ph.D., & Claudia J . Coulton, Ph.D.

Center on Urban Poverty & Community DevelopmentJack, Joseph and Morton Mandel School of Appl ied Social

SciencesCase Western Reserve University Cleveland, Ohio

3 r d Annual OERC ConferenceOctober 1, 2014

U s i n g D a t a t o I n f o rm Po l i c y , P r a c t i c e , a n d Te a c h e r S u c c e s s I C o l u m b u s , O H I O c t o b e r 1 , 2 0 1 4

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BACKGROUND

Previous

studies

Policy

SocialServic

e

• Early exposure to stressful circumstances, environmental hazards, and less than optimal early learning environments negatively and persistently affect early development.

• Ohio State adopted “3rd Grade reading Guarantee” to ensure that students pass reading proficiency test before advancing beyond 3rd grade (e.g., kindergarten school readiness)

• Cleveland Metropolitan School District and Cuyahoga County can be more aware of risk factors and services for students being held back as the policy is implemented.

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Aim 1. Assess the practicality of linking early childhood and K-3 student records and potential usefulness of the resulting information to local schools

2. Determine how child, family, neighborhood, mobility, and early childhood services to influence kindergarten readiness.

3. Estimate the eff ects of early childhood risk factors and experiences on student progress over grades 1 to 3

4.Identify child-level indices, including kindergarten readiness and reading-growth trajectories, that in their combination accurately predict reading proficiency in third grade.

PURPOSE

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Outcome2

Outcome1

CONCEPTUAL MODEL

Kindergarten Readiness Assessment-Literacy (KRA-L) test

Ohio Achievement Assessment (OAA) reading proficiency

Study area: Cleveland Metropolitan School District, OH

3rdBirth K

Child• Demographic• Birth weight• Non-English

native

Services• Home visiting• Childcare• Head Start• Public

preschool• Universal Pre-K

Mobility• ResidentialNeighborhood• Poverty rate• Concentrated

disadvantage

Family• TANF/SNAP/ Medicaid• Teen mother• Mother’s edu.• Child abuse• Foster care

School• Attendance• School

mobility• Report of

disability

Ecological Longitudinal

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COHORT DESIGN

Cohort 1(N=3,989)

Cohort 2(N=3,929)

Cohort 3(N=3,956)

Cohort 4*

(N=3,606)

B 3rdK

B 3rdK

B 3rdK

B 3rdK

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Year

Retrospective Prospective

Note. First enrollment of kindergarten in Cleveland Metropolitan School District, Ohio *Cohort 4 was not included in the model of 3rd grade reading test.

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INTEGRATED DATA SYSTEM (IDS):LOCAL

ID6

ID5ID4

ID3

ID2ID1

• Abuse/neglect reports*

• Foster care*

• Home visiting*• Special needs child care*• Early childhood mental

health• Universal pre-k*

• Attendance*• KRA-L*• Proficiency test*• Graduation test• Disability*

• Medicaid*• SNAP*• TANF*• Child care voucher*

• Infant mortality• Elevated Blood Lead

• Teen births*• Low weight birth*

ChildMedicalDataBirth

Cert.

PublicAssist

PublicSchool

Child

Welfare

Services

CommonID

ChildHood Integrated

Longitudinal Data

(CHILD) System

*: Data for this project

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INTEGRATED DATA SYSTEM (IDS):LOCAL, STATE, & NEIGHBORHOOD

Educational Outcomes• KRA-L score*

• 3rd grade reading proficiency*

• AttendanceChild Context• Demographic• Birth weight• English as a second language

Family Context• TANF/SNAP/Medicaid• Mother’s education • Teen mother• Child maltreatment• Foster care

Service Context• Home visiting

• Head Start

• Preschool • Universal Pre-K

Mobility • Residential

CHILD system

Educational Outcomes• KRA-L score*

• 3rd grade reading proficiency*

• AttendanceSchool Context• School characteristics

Mobility • School

EMIS

Neighborhood context• Poverty rate• Concentrated disadvantage

NEO CANDO

Data Integrationby State Student ID

Data IntegrationBy Census tract

Data IntegrationBy ECIID

*Outcome variables

MULTI-LEVEL ANALYSIS

Yij β0 + β1j∙Xqij= + rijIndividual -

level

Yij + β1j∙Xqij= + rijβ0log[λij]=

β0 =Neighborhood - level

Individual -level

Yij : KRA-L score of the child i in census tract jXqij: Individual-level covariates, q=1,..,18βqj : Coefficients of Xqij

rij: Between-level error, rij ~ N(0, σ2)

γ00 + γ01∙W1j + u0j

Yij : Probability of passing in 3rd grade reading test of the child i in census tract jXqij: Individual-level covariates, q=1,..,22βqj : Coefficients of Xqij

rij: Between-level error, rij ~ N(0, σ2)

β0j: Between-level interceptW1j: Poverty rates by Census tractγ01: Coefficient of W1j

u0j: Within-level error, u0j ~ N(0, τ2)

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Note: Multiple imputation (m=5) for missing information, Mean-centering for continuous variables

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Table 4. Hierarchical Linear Model for KRA-LVariables

% / M(SD)

β SE t p

Intercept: KRA-L Score (0-29)(i) 15.8(7.2)14.19

50.20

071.08 0.000

Child characteristics

Age at kindergarten (in months; 40-125)(m) 65.7(4.3) 0.2520.01

516.39 0.000

Gender (Female=1) 49.3% 1.5240.11

713.03 0.000

Low-birth weight (Yes=1)(i) 12.2% -0.6750.23

6-2.86 0.009

Race: Reference (White and others; Yes=1) 19.4%

Hispanic (Yes=1) 11.8% -1.8050.27

9-6.48 0.000

African-American (Yes=1) 68.8% -0.2240.17

9-1.26 0.209

Non-native English at kindergarten (Yes=1) 7.7% -2.1960.31

4-6.99 0.000

Family characteristics: Birth to kindergarten

Born to teenage mother (Yes=1)(i) 16.4% 0.1440.20

40.71 0.480

Born to mother with high school diploma (Yes=1)(i) 55.8% 1.1800.14

68.06 0.000

Number of months living <150% FPL (months: 0-86)(m) 40.0(37.1)

-0.0240.00

3-7.55 0.000

Substantiated/indicated child abuse (Yes=1) 13.3% -0.6480.19

2-3.38 0.001

Foster care placement (Yes=1) 5.4% 0.8420.30

02.81 0.005

Home visiting services: Birth

Early intervention ever (Yes=1) 11.1% -2.8900.21

1-13.72 0.000

Ongoing home visiting over 12 times (Yes=1) 21.9% -0.3100.15

2-2.04 0.042

Newborn home visiting ever (Yes=1) 28.1% 0.8780.14

36.16 0.000

Early childhood services: 36 months to kindergarten

Home-based child care over 6 months (Yes=1) 9.5% 0.1810.19

90.91 0.364

Center-based child care over 6 months (Yes=1) 19.5% 1.5630.15

110.35 0.000

Head Start over 6 months (Yes=1) 5.1% 1.2330.26

84.60 0.000

CMSD Preschool over 120 days or UPK ever over 6 months (Yes=1)

19.9% 2.9710.15

818.77 0.000

Mobility: Birth to kindergarten

Number of changing address (0-15)(i)(m) 2.6(2.4) -0.1310.02

7-4.80 0.000

Neighborhood (Census-tract) characteristics: Kindergarten

Poverty rates (ACS 2009; 0-94.9%)(m) 35.4(20.1)

-0.0190.00

5-4.16 0.000

Note. Number of children=13,959; Number of Census tracts=410; (i) Multiple imputation (m=5), (m) grand-mean centering Model fit: F(20,40277.2)=94.75, p=0.000; Total variance explained by 14.1% Inter-Class Correlation (ICC): 4.0% (Null model), 1% (Current model), KRA-L (Kindergarten Readiness-Literacy), FPL (Federal Poverty Line), CMSD (Cleveland Municipal School District), UPK (Universal Pre-Kindergarten), ACS (American Community Survey 2009 5-year estimates)

Cleveland Metropolitan School District, OH

Geographic locations of kindergartners (2007-2010) in Cleveland Metropolitan School District, OH

Source: 1. Cleveland Metropolitan School District (CMSD) data 2. American Community Survey 2009 (www.census.gov)Note: Kindergartners in years of 2007-2010 (N=13,959)

Band 1 ( 0-13): 5,364 (41.1%)Band 2 (14-23): 5,322 (40.7%)Band 3 (24-29): 2,380 (18.2%)Missing:893

Kindergarteners locations and KRA-L Band in Cleveland Metropolitan School District, OH


Mean KRA-L scores by Census tract in Cleveland Metropolitan School District, OH


Yij=β0j+rij

Between-variance=50.0, p<0.05

Mean KRA-L scores by Census tract and poverty rate by Census tractin Cleveland Metropolitan School District, OH


Yij=β0j+βqj∙Xqij+rij

β0j =γ00+γ01∙W1j+u0j

γ01=-0.019, p=0.000

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Hierarchical Generalized Linear Model for 3rd grade reading testVariables % / M(SD) β SE t p OR

Intercept: Passage of 3rd reading test (Yes=1)(i) 52.3% 0.542 0.209 2.590.010Child characteristics

Age at 3rd grade (in months; 87-161)(m) 103.7(5.7)

0.012 0.005 2.390.017 1.012

Gender (Female=1) 49.4% 0.214 0.044 4.820.000 1.238

Low-birth weight (Yes=1)(i) 12.5%-

0.1940.073 -2.650.009 0.823

Race: Reference (White and others; Yes=1) 17.7% Hispanic (Yes=1) 12.3% 0.000 0.101 0.000.998 1.000

African-American (Yes=1) 70.0%-

0.5100.069 -7.400.000 0.600

Non-native English at kindergarten (Yes=1) 8.7%-

0.2560.108 -2.380.018 0.774

Family characteristics: Birth to kindergarten

Born to teenage mother (Yes=1)(i) 16.3%-

0.0950.071 -1.350.177 0.909

Born to mother with high school diploma (Yes=1)(i) 56.0% 0.276 0.052 5.340.000 1.317

Number of months living <150% FPL (months: 0-126)(m) 66.5(36.7)

-0.004

0.001 -5.500.000 0.996

Substantiated/indicated child abuse (Yes=1) 18.9%-

0.1170.061 -1.910.056 0.890

Foster care placement (Yes=1) 7.2% 0.182 0.096 1.900.058 1.199Home visiting services: Birth

Early intervention ever (Yes=1) 11.7%-

0.2950.074 -4.000.000 0.744

Ongoing home visiting over 12 times (Yes=1) 22.4% 0.038 0.055 0.690.491 1.039 Newborn home visiting ever (Yes=1) 27.6% 0.178 0.056 3.160.002 1.195Early childhood services: 36 months to kindergarten

Home-based child care over 6 months (Yes=1) 9.8%-

0.0150.073 -0.210.835 0.985

Center-based child care over 6 months (Yes=1) 17.8% 0.075 0.059 1.270.206 1.078 Head Start over 6 months (Yes=1) 6.2% 0.071 0.090 0.790.430 1.073 CMSD Preschool over 120 days or UPK ever over 6 months (Yes=1)

17.6% 0.230 0.060 3.810.000 1.258

School experiences: Kindergarten to 3rd grade Kindergarten attendance rate over 89% (Yes=1) 67.6% 0.176 0.049 3.580.000 1.193 Disability between kindergarten and 3rd grade (Yes=1) 13.0% -

1.0030.064 -

15.610.000 0.367

3rd grade enrollment at the same school (Yes=1) 31.3% 0.378 0.049 7.780.000 1.460Mobility: Birth to 3rd grade

Number of changing address (0-15)(m) 4.0(3.2)-

0.0020.008 -0.240.811 0.998

Neighborhood (Census-tract) characteristics: 3rd grade

Poverty rates (ACS 2009; 0-94.9%)(m) 33.0(19.3)

-0.003

0.002 -1.940.052 0.997

Note. Number of children=10,155; Number of Census tracts=412; Model fit: F(23, 14890.9)=28.65, p=0.000 Between-variance: 0.191 (Null model, p<0.05), 0.069 (Current model, p<0.05)


Geographic locations of kindergartners (2007-2009) at 3rd grade in Cleveland Metropolitan School District, OH


Fail: 4,629 (45.6%)Pass: 5,081 (50.4%)Missing:445`

Geographic locations of 3rd grad reading test (Pass or fail)in Cleveland Metropolitan School District, OH


Passing rate of 3rd grade reading test by Census tract in Cleveland Metropolitan School District, OH

Yij=log[λij]=β0j+rij

Between-variance=0.19, p<0.05


Passing rate of 3rd grade reading test by Census tract and poverty rate by Census tractin Cleveland Metropolitan School District, OH

Yij=log[λij]=β0j+βqj∙Xqij+rij

β0j =γ00+γ01∙W1j+u0j

exp(γ01)=exp(-0.003)=0.997, p=0.052

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CONCLUSION: FACTORS

(+) Girl(+) Age(--) Low-birth weight(--) Hispanic (K)(--) African-American (3rd)(--) Non-English native

(+) Center-based (K)(+) Head Start (K)(+) Public preschool or UPK

(--) Residential mobility (K)

(--) Family’s economic difficulty(+) Mother’s education(--) Child abuse (K)(+) Foster care (K)

(--) Chronic absenteeism (3rd)(--) School mobility (3rd)(--) Report of disability (3rd)

(--) Early intervention(--) Ongoing home visit (K)(+) New home visit

(--) Poverty rate (K)

(K): Significant only for KRA-L,(3rd): Significant only for 3rd grade treading test passage

Outcome2

Outcome1

Kindergarten Readiness Assessment-Literacy (KRA-L) test

Ohio Achievement Assessment (OAA) reading proficiency

3rd

K

Child

Early childhood education

Mobility

Family

School

Home visiting

Neighborhood

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CONCLUSION:EARLY CHILDHOOD SERVICES

The newborn home visit supports(1) the discovery of children who may show a developmental

issues or disability earlier(2) the detection of child maltreatment,(3) the arrangement of services for families in need,(4) families choosing higher quality early childhood services

The school system will consider(1) both children’s KRA-L score per se (2) the risk predictors of KRA-L together in order to enhance the

passing rates of 3 rd grade reading test. Building a cohesive bridge between early childhood

services and the public school system(1) stay within a continuity of child development and education(2) be prepared for kindergarten(3) improve the passage of 3 rd grade reading test.

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CONCLUSION: USEFULNESS OF IDS

Collaboration with Cleveland Metropolitan School District (CMSD) and Early childhood agencies(1) Data Sharing(2) Uses

- Building profiles- Community collaborative planning- Risk factor reduction

Helpful to inform educational planning; especially schools with large numbers of disadvantaged students

Understand challenges for kindergarten readiness

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LIMITATIONS & FUTURE STUDIES

Method

Data

Analysis

Cohort Design

• Tracking effectively

IntegratedData

System

• Affluent information• Reducing missing• Costs benefits

Multi-levelanalysis

• Separation of between & within variances

• One school district

• Public school

• Selection bias

Area Study Advantage Limitation

QUESTIONS?ROBERT L. FISCHER, PH.D. ([email protected])

SEOK- JOO KIM, PH.D.(SEOK- [email protected])

[email protected] |oerc.osu.edu

Acknowledgement1.Ohio’s Race to the Top project and Ohio Education Research Center2.Center for Human Resource Research at the Ohio State University3.Ms. Nina Lalich and Tsui Chan at Center on Urban Poverty and Community

Development