Paleari pavia 21apr15

The Future of Universities in Europe and

beyond

Stefano PaleariRector of the University of Bergamo

President of the Conference of Italian University Rectors (CRUI)

Pavia, 21 Aprile 2015

2015 Pavia PhD Workshop on:

«Perspectives for the European Universities:

the Role of PhD Research in Society»

The Future of Universities in Europe and beyond

Stefano Paleari

Agenda

• Be clear at the beginning

• Where we are: a call and a commitment

• Where we won to be

• Which model, which University

• A simple story: Higher Education in UK and in Italy

• A more general reflection

• What about the future of University:

o Key messages for policy makers… and questions

o Key messages and questions for universities

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Stefano Paleari

Be clear at the beginning

• Universities need to adapt to the society they belong to

o Efficiency and sustainability are main issues

• In order to participate to the birth of a new university, we need

to acknowledge that we are in a context that has dramatically

changed in the last years

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Stefano Paleari

Where we are: a call and a commitment

• A call to earth for our policy makers, for our colleagues and for

our mass media

• A commitment: if we don’t know we don’t talk

• We often use to talk about science without a scientific

approach

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Stefano Paleari

European Higher Education in a nutshell

State Total € 2014Share of

GDP 2013

Inflation adj var%

(2008-2014)

France 20.120** 0,99** +3,9**

Germany 26.800* 0,98* +23*

Netherlands 3.295 0,54* -0,6

Spain 7.405 0,73* -15

Italy 6.576 0,42* -21

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Source: EUA public funding observatory.

*2013 (2014 n.a.) **2012 (2013 n.a.)


Stefano Paleari

Public budget breakdown of European countries

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Data in % - Year 2011

General services Defence Public order

& safety Economy Environ. House Health Culture & entert. Education Welfare

Austria 13.1 1.4 2.9 10.5 1.0 1.2 15.3 2.0 11.0 41.6Belgium 15.0 1.8 3.4 12.3 1.4 0.7 14.8 2.4 11.6 36.6France 11.5 3.2 3.1 6.3 1.9 3.4 14.7 2.5 10.8 42.6Germany 13.6 2.4 3.5 7.8 1.5 1.2 15.5 1.8 9.4 43.3Greece 24.6 4.6 3.3 6.2 1.0 0.4 11.6 1.2 7.9 39.3Ireland 11.4 0.9 3.7 16.4 2.1 1.3 15.6 1.8 10.9 35.9Italy 17.3 3.0 4.0 7.1 1.8 1.4 14.7 1.1 8.5 41.0Luxemburg 11.4 1.0 2.5 9.9 2.8 1.8 11.4 4.0 12.1 43.2Netherlands 11.2 2.7 4.2 10.9 3.3 1.2 17.0 3.5 11.6 34.5Norway 9.7 3.6 2.2 9.6 1.5 1.6 16.5 2.9 12.6 39.8Spain 12.5 2.3 4.8 11.6 2.1 1.3 14.1 3.3 10.5 37.4Sweden 14.4 2.9 2.7 8.2 0.7 1.5 13.7 2.2 13.3 40.5Switzerland 9.9 2.9 5.0 13.7 2.3 0.6 6.1 2.6 17.9 39.0U.K. 11.6 5.1 5.3 5.3 2.0 1.8 16.5 2.1 13.4 36.8U.S.A. 12.4 11.7 5.5 9.4 0.0 2.1 21.4 0.7 15.5 21.3OCSE 13.6 3.6 3.9 10.5 1.6 1.6 14.5 2.7 12.5 35.6

Source: Il Sole 24 Ore, 15 novembre 2013


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Diverging funding policies on HE

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Source: Donina et al. (2014). Reprocessing EUA’s Public Funding Observatory and Word Bank Statistics

Country Funding 2012 - (mln €)

Population 2011 ('000)

Funding per citizen

Change 2008-2012

Change 2008-2012 Inflation-adjusted

Norway 3.621 4.953 731 22,0% 21,0%Sweden 6.235 9.449 660 22,0% 21,0%Germany 24.900 81.798 304 23,0% 20,0%France 19.800 65.434 303 8,8% 6,4%Iceland 87 319 273 13,0% 7,2%Ireland 1.236 4.576 270 -20,0% -21,0%Austria 2.169 8.424 257 15,0% 13,0%Netherland 3.232 16.693 194 10,0% 7,5%Spain* 7.258 46.175 157 -9,5% -11,0%UK 9.815 62.744 156 -10,0% -13,0%Italy 6.633 60.724 109 -12,0% -14,0%Croatia 369 4.403 84 5,3% 1,8%Slovakia 447 5.398 83 2,1% -1,5%Poland* 3.015 38.534 78 12,0% 8,6%Czech Republic 802 10.496 76 -14,0% -17,0%Lithuania 189 3.030 62 -19,0% -22,0%Portugal 602 10.557 57 -1,5% -4,1%Hungary 542 9.972 54 -20,0% -24,0%Greece 200 11.300 18 -25,0% -25,0%Belgium - French Community 585 n.a. 0 19,0% 16,0%


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What are the public funding modalities?

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Source: Estermann (2014),


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Where we won to be

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Massification of HE

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Population share that attained tertiary education by age (2011)Source: OECD, Education at a glance, 2013

• The share of youth who attain HE is increased worldwide

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Stefano Paleari

“The world is going to university” (Economist,

March 2015)

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• The global tertiary-enrolment ratio—the share of the student-

age population at university—went up from 14% to 32% in the

two decades to 2012

• University enrolment is growing faster even than demand for

that ultimate consumer good, the car

• The hunger for degrees is understandable: these days they are

a requirement for a decent job and an entry ticket to the

middle class

Source: Economist, March 28th, 2015


Stefano Paleari

The world is asking research and top universities

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Nowadays policymakers are increasingly focusing public

resources on a few privileged institutions, intensifying the

competition to create world-class universities

“Everyone wants one [world class university],

no one knows what it is,

and no one knows how to get one”

Philip AltbachDirector of the Center for International Higher Education

in the Lynch School of Education at Boston College

The Future of HE in Europe15.04.2023

Politicians love the university rankings

We would maximize the competitive position of a group of leading Russian universities in the global research and education market through the “Project 5-100” (a campaign to help propel 5 Russian institutions into the top 100 of the global rankings)

Alexander Povalko,

Deputy Minister of Education and Science of the Russian Federation

It is time to transform Japanese universities to world universities so they can be placed within the top ranking

Hakubun Shimomura,

Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan

Our universities are also climbing up the international rankings. Four French institutions are among the top 100 in the Shanghai Ranking and we’re told there will soon be five. These rankings matter, of course.

François Hollande,

President of the French Republic

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Stefano Paleari

Which model, which University

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Satisfying the demand: EU or US model?

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European model

• The leading approach is that of state funding and provision, in

which most institutions have equal resources and status.

Anglosaxon model

• A more market-based model, of mixed private-public funding

and provision, with brilliant, well-funded institutions at the top

and poorer ones at the bottom

The world is moving toward the Anglosaxon model: Is it worth?


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Higher education is only research?

Research side:

• In 2014, 19 of the 20 universities in the world that produced

the most highly cited research papers were American.

Education side:

• American graduates score poorly in international numeracy

and literacy rankings, and are worsening. 45% of American

students made no gains in their first two years of university

• Tuition fees have nearly doubled, in real terms, in 20 years

• Student debt, at nearly $1.2 trillion, has surpassed credit-card

debt and car loans

The dark side of «rankings»…

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Are University rankings a ruin?

We need to start with a rich and credible data system before we leap into some sort of artificial ranking system that, frankly, would have all kinds of unintended consequences.

Margaret Spellings, U.S. Secretary of Education

The system of evaluating professors and academic institutions creates perverse incentives which undermine the quality of education and encourage and enable fraud.

Wu Se-hwa 吳思華 , Ministry of Education of Taiwan

Forget ranking; serious education issues deserve more attention. Youth are growing up without practical life skills.

Gaylod Avedi, Chairman of Vihiga County Education Board

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Is this a sustainable model?

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University of California (Berkeley)


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A simple story: Higher Education in UK and in Italy

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HE a.y. 2012/13 Italy (€) UK (£)

Total income (mln) 12.894,7 29.001,3

Total expenditure (mln) 12.145,0 27.941,5

Sources: ANVUR (2014) HESA website

The UK system cost three times the Italian one: please stop operating on a shoestring


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Italy vs Uk: number of Universities

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2012/13 Italy UK

Total 96 161

Public 67 160

Private (excluding telematic universities) 18 1

Telematic universities 11 (private) 1 (public)

Are there in Italy too many Universities?


Stefano Paleari

Italy vs. UK: institutional size

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UK a.y. 2012/13 Public Private Long-distance

Learning (Public)

Total 160 1 1

Mega univ 1 1

Big univ 42

Medium univ 56

Small univ 61 1

Italy a.y. 2012/13 Atenei Statali Atenei non Statali

TradizionaliLong-distance

Learning (Private)

Total 66 18 11

Mega univ 11

Big univ 17 1

Medium univ 17 1 1

Small univ 21 16 10

Mega univ:

Students > 40.000;

Big univ:

20.000<students< 40.000;

Medium univ:

10.000<students< 20.000;

Small univ:

Students < 10.000

Fonte: Elaborazione su dati Statistica MIUR

Fonte: HESA websiteAre the Italian Universities too small?


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Italy vs. UK: funding system

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Can Italy and Europe afford the UK trend?


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A more general reflection

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Is the “dual” society coming?

• We are moving towards a so-called “dual” society

• Using the words of Marc Augé:

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Dual society or free lunch society? 1/3

• Dual Society (1% Society)

o Competitiveness based solely on excellence

o An intensive logic: Resources concentrated on few people and few

initiatives

o A diverging HE system: a system for the genes or the elects on the

one side; and a less-qualified system for the others

o A compassionate system of charity emulating an accessibility

system

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Stefano Paleari


• The “free-lunch” Society

o Society based exclusively on rights and not on duties

o An “artificially-equal” system: equal from the legal point of view,

but not substantially

o Final result is that the average quality decreases

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• Is Knowledge Society coherent with the Dual Society model?

• Is the “free-lunch” Society sustainable from an economic and

an anthropologic point of view?

• Is a more realistic approach feasible?

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Stefano Paleari

What about the future of University

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Stefano Paleari

Key messages for policy makers (1/2)

• Be clear about aims and purposes

• Evaluate which aims can be best achieved through which

measure

• Consult on the choice of indicators/objectives

• Minimise administrative effort for the measurement and

generation/collection of data

o Time spent for administrative and bureaucratic jobs is without

value added

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Source: Estermann (2014),


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Which goal has to be persuited?

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Source: Estermann (2014), EUA funding forum Bergamo.


Stefano Paleari

Key messages for policy makers (2/2)

• Watch out for conflicting goals and indicators

• Avoid indicators on which HEIs have little influence

• Be careful for possible unintended consequences and

impacts of policy choices

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Stefano Paleari

Does HE decrease Social inequalities?

• In some cases, are new HE funding policies increasing social

inequalities?

o In some countries as the US, the new model is forcing students to

run up huge debts to afford to obtain an academic qualification

˗ What will it happen in countries which are on the same path (i.e., UK)?

o Are we going towards a society that the philosopher Marc Augé

called ‘dual society’, or that we can call ‘1% society’?

˗ Competitiveness based solely on excellence

˗ An intensive logic: Resources concentrated on few people and few

initiatives

˗ A diverging HE system: a system for the genes or the elects on the one

side; and a less-qualified system for the others

˗ A compassionate system of charity emulating an accessibility system

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Stefano Paleari

A new model of university?

• Who should bear the cost of higher education?

o New funding models for the sustainability of the system

o A variety of funding models would facilitate the creation of an

university “ecosystem”

Evolution of higher education institutions to be more responsive to the

needs of different stakeholders

Possible response to the increased cost of higher education

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'Classic' State University 80% 20%

Private model (teaching) 20% 50% - - 30%

Hybrid Model 50% 50%

Overheads Contracts

Sources Public funding StudentsOverhead EU

projects“Fund raising”


Stefano Paleari

…bring to new issues: Who pays for whom?

• International students are precious assets for European

universities

• BUT is it worthy that EU taxpayers in some EU countries are

funding

o Non-EU student’s education

o EU students that will work in a non-EU country

• Some issues for the European policy makers

o Are they aware of the problem?

o Are current national welfare state compatible with a global market

for HE?

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Stefano Paleari

Key messages for universities 1/2

• To the policy makers: no input, no output

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Source: Estermann (2014)


Stefano Paleari

Key messages for universities 2/2

• Get involved in the design of the funding scheme

• Identify their own priorities and develop an institutional

strategy

• Establish strong internal QA mechanisms and foster quality

culture

• Set up internal funding allocation schemes based on

institutional priorities (may differ from the external one)

• If applicable, try to align the performance contract with your

institutional priorities

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Source: Estermann (2014)


Stefano Paleari

Open issues and proposals: Changing status

• Is this new idea of society still compatible with the idea of

public servants/employees?

o Being paid by the government does not make an employee a public

servant!

• Support the average quality and excellence at the same time

• Is the current legal status coherent with the goals of

sustainability and diversification of university funding sources?

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Stefano Paleari

Open issues: specialties and commodities

• What are commodities and specialties in HE?

˗ Undergraduates are "commodity" and graduates are "specialty"?

˗ Frontal lessons are speciality or commodity? The role of Moocs

• Can commodities be outsourced?

o Why do universities pay for tutors, teaching how to solve very

standard exercises that can easily be found on the web?

o Can this resources be used to augment scholarships?

o Can this resources be used to invest in a course that provides high

value added?

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Stefano Paleari


• The Universities are the new “wealth of Nations”

• The model of University is also the model of society that we

won to build up: excellence and/or average quality

• The landscape will change (mobility, resource scarsity, high skill

workers, ecc.) and we have to change with it

• My best wishes to the Rectors for the forthcoming years……..

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