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Sessieronde 4 Zaal: Rotterdam Hall Titel: Open en online onderwijs en de toekomst van het Nederlandse hoger onderwijs Spreker: Timo Kos (TU Delft)
Citation preview
Open & Online Education & de toekomst van het Nederlandse hoger onderwijs
Impact analyse & scenariostudie
Timo Kos
@timokos
/timokos
slideshare.net/timokos
/timokos or /mooc-scoop
@KhanAcademyNL
www.khanacademy.nl
Directeur Onderwijs & Studentenzaken
Content
0. Introduction
1. State of play
2. Impact analysis
3. Scenarios
4. Questions
Introduction
Foto: Ulrike Reinhard Learning Stations in Khajuraho, Rural India
1.“The number of higher education students in the world is expected to quadruple,
from around 100 million in 2000
to 400 million in 2030”
To accommodate them we need to build
9.615 universities in 30 yearsThat is 3 universities For 30.000 students
per week
2.“Students expect to choose what they learn, how they
learn and when they learn”
Image C
C B
Y P
hill
ie C
asa
bla
nca
Yet, this is how we teach
• S
O2E State of play
MOOCs: accelerating developments
What the MOOC?
•Massive •Open•Online•Course
Image CC-BY-NC Gordon Lockhart:http://gbl55.wordpress.com/2011/03/08/cck11-man-this-mooc-is-something-else/
Disruptive innovation or Hype?“There is a tsunami coming. I can't tell you exactly how it’s going to
break, but my goal is to try to surf it, not to just stand there.”
John Hennesy (former president Stanford), Wall Street Journal (june, 2012)
13
Open Online Education (O2E): four related and interacting developments
Open Distance Learning (ODL): dating back to the early 20th century. Now dominated by the Open Universities
14
Online Education (OE): growing market & marketshares
15
‘Change Course: Ten Years of Tracking Online Education in the United States’ (2013)
16
Online Education (OE): popular programs
Table from ‘Study of UK online learning final report’, University of Oxford, 2010
Online education (OE): student motives
17
‘Online College Students 2012’, The Learning House and Aslanian Market Research
http://ocwconsortium.org
Definitions of OCW & OER
43 million unique
visitors per year
Growth & use of Open Course Ware
MOOC = Massive Open Online Courses (I)A. Early pioneers (2007/2008) of connectivism & social learning (now cMOOC)
21
David Wiley (Brigham Young University)
George Siemens (Athabasca University)
Stephen Downes (National Research Councel Canada)
MOOC = Massive Open Online Courses (II)B. Pioneers (2011-2012) of free massive open online classes(now xMOOCs)
22
Salman Khan
Prof. Peter Norvig & Prof. Sebastian Thrun (Stanford)
Prof Andrew Nge & Prof. Daphne Koller (Stanford)
Prof. Anant Agarwal (MIT)
xMOOC platforms (USA)
introducing new (non-formal) certificates.
24
25
MOOC = Massive Open Online Courses (II)Evolution of MOOCs
‘MOOC’s and implications for Higher Education. A Whitepaper’, (JISC, CETIS; March 2013). Relaties tussen ODL, OE, OER/OCW & MOOC’s., incl. relation between MIT OCW,
Khanacademy & xMOOC
Revenue models?• license model: a share of gross revenue between platform provider
and universities offering courses hosted on the platform for tuition paid degee programs or fees for additional services to students (e.g. coaching)
• Administrative fees: for certification on proctored exam locations
• Recruitment fees: from corporations for recruiting talented students
• Premium/Fremium model: free and upgraded paid versions of the MOOCs and services, resembling the ‘freemium’ and ‘premium’ payment models of other internet services
• Advertisement: monetizing on the scale and social characteristics of users of the platform.
State of play - NL
Delft: Online and Campus Education
Massive Open Online Courses
(MOOCs)
Open Course Ware (OCW)
Online Distance Education
Campus Education
• Learning Activities & Course Materials
• Free• Enrolled students only, massive
numbers• Bachelors Level• Certificate of Completion
• Course Materials• Free• Big Exposure, Worldwide
audience• Both Bachelor and Master
level• No interaction with faculty• No accredited certificate
• Learning Activities & Course Materials
• Paid enrollment• Enrolled students only, limited
numbers• Master level• Accredited Course Certificate• Full Master Degree
• On-campus Education• Top-class education and research
facilities• World famous university library• Active student societies• Great opportunities to participate in
special student projects
Platform
DelftX Courses
• Spring 2014:• Introduction to Aerospace Engineering• Next Generation Infrastructures
57,500
27,500
31
sMOOCs: emerging student patterns
‘Emerging Student Patterns in MOOCs: A (Revised) Graphical View’, Michael Feldstein (maart 2013)
Enrollment & student activity
United States
India
Brazil
Spain
Nigeria
United Kingdom
ColombiaCanada
Netherlands Mexico
Water
United States
IndiaBrazil
Spain
Pakistan
United Kingdom
ColombiaNigeria
Netherlands Mexico
Solar
MOOCs in NL
EdX
Delft X
• Solar Energy 54.500
• Water Treatment 27.500
{Next Generation Infrastructures & Introduction to aerospace engineering} n.a.
Coursera
Leiden
• The law of the EU 46,000
• Terrorism and Counterterrorism 26,000
Universiteit van Amsterdam
• Introduction into communication Science (before on Sakai) (1)6.000
TU Eindhoven
{Sports & Building Aearodynamics} n.a.
OpenUpEd
Open Universiteit
• E-learning (in Nederlands) 600
Impact
“When the outstanding becomes so easily
accessible,average is over.”
Thomas Friedman:“The World is Flat”
Is it a HYPE or a
DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION?
Different perspectives I: Hype Cycle
Gartner Hype Cycle, bron: Wikipedia
Peter Thiel: Higher Education bubble
The theory of disruptive innovationʺ ʺ
„A process by which a product or
service takes root initially in simple
applications at the bottom of a
market and then relentlessly moves
‘up market’, eventually displacing
established competitors”
‒ Professor Clayton M. Christensen, Harvard Business School
Author of Disrupting Class (2008) and The Innovative University (2011)
Low ranked (under) graduatedegree programs
High ranked (under) graduate degree
programs
Top ranked (under) graduate degree programs
Different perspectives II: Disruptive innovation theory
Moody’s Investors Service, Credit Outlook Higher Education Institutions USA, US Public Finance, Sept 2012
42
Different perspectives II: Disruptive innovation theory
Different perspectives I: Unbundling
Scenario’s
The future?
44
• Accredited Massive Online Master Degree Program
• Price: $ 6600,- for 3 years in stead of $ 40.000 per year
• Number of students: 10.000 in stead of 300 per year
• Number of faculty extra: 8 at Georgia Tech (for content)
• Revenu model: 60% for Georgia Tech, 40% for Udactity
1. Topuniversiteiten kunnen hun reputatie op onderzoeksgebied nu ook uitbouwen op onderwijsgebied en wereldwijd toonaangevend worden in de productie van de inhoud van online curricula
2. Grootschalige universiteiten met onvoldoende academische onderscheidend vermogen kunnen eigen MOOC’s of andermans MOOC’s inzetten in hun onderwijsprogramma’s en daarmee een goede prijs-kwaliteitverhouding blijven bieden voor de blended opleidingen die zij aanbieden aan hun betalende campus-studenten
3. Gespecialiseerde universiteit die zich richten op een academische en daarin tot de absolute wereldtop.
4. Lokale universiteiten die een belangrijke bijdrage leveren aan de lokale economie en in toenemende mate gebruikmaken van de MOOC’s die andere universiteiten ontwikkelen.
Scenario’s
Scenario matrix
46
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Thank you