Open & Distance Learning

Reflections on Trends

OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI) and Laureate International Universities (LIU)

International seminar “Opening higher education: what the future might bring”

Berlin, Germany, 8-9 December 2016

Agenda

• Open/Distance learning as “traditional”

• Where is the value in open/distance learning?

• New openness, new competition

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Agenda

• Open/Distance learning as “traditional”

• Where is the value in open/distance learning?

• New openness, new competition

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Perpetual challenges…

• National data on “open” and “distance learning” remains rare, and therefore little comparative analysis

• Limited disaggregation by delivery mode and operational model

• Disparities on definition

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Why are US DL specialists loosing share?

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

25 Distance-Only 4Y HEIs1,841 Other 4Y HEIs with Distance Students

2012

2013

2014

Down about 10%

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Up over 20% Source: IPEDS and Observatory analysis

Stu

den

t H

ead

cou

nt

(Fal

l)-

Un

der

grad

uat

e an

d G

rad

uat

e

Median Enrollment=

11,500 (2014)

Median Enrollment= 194

(2014)

Mixed enrollment trends globally- why?

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From “The State of Open Universities in the Commonwealth” report (CoL/OBHE- 2016)

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Explaining growth and decline…

Reasons for Growth

• Add genuine capacity

• Common, outcomes-based regulation

• Unique presence/role

Reasons for Decline

• Conventional HEI competition

• Legacy instructional model

• Limited case for modality and scale

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Agenda

• Open/Distance learning as “traditional”

• Where is the value in open/distance learning?

• New openness, new competition

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How to define and report DL outcomes?

0%

60%

40%

0%

20%

80%

0%

30%

70%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Detailed Partial Little or None

Graduation Rates

Graduate Employment

Productivity

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Outcomes Reporting- Website assessment of 10 ODL universities globally From “The State of Open

Universities in the Commonwealth” report (CoL/OBHE- 2016)

Maybe openness is not the problem?

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Source: Completing College (NSCH)- US Fall 2010 cohort (2016)

Much DL exhibits limited innovation beyond delivery mode

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Agenda

• Open/Distance learning as “traditional”

• Where is the value in open/distance learning?

• New openness, new competition

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New Competition…

Top right will drive effectiveness, but implications for scale and DL? © IGI Services 2016

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Degrees Degree Alternatives

Explicit Pedagogy & Outcomes

Implicit Pedagogy & Outcomes

DL/Online HE

CBE

Free MOOCs

Paid MOOCs

Traditional HE

Bootcamps

HEI Certificates

Micromasters

Circle size= enrollment scale

Minerva

Georgia Tech CS Master’s

Summary…

• DL data- inputs, process, outputs- remains patchy, muted and complex. Second best?

• Much DL fails to innovate beyond delivery mode; and makes limited case for scale

• DL being “domesticated” by traditional HEIs

• New models emphasis pedagogy over delivery mode

• Is blended best mix of pedagogy, access and scale?

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Thank you Thank you Richard Garrett Director, The Observatory on Borderless Higher Education richard.garrett@obhe.org obhe.org Chief Research Officer Eduventures rgarrett@eduventures.com eduventures.com