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Transform to the power of digital Open Online Education Chances & Challenges for Higher Education NL Timo Kos @timokos /timokos [email protected] Capgemini Consulting Marketleader Education slideshare.net/timokos /timokos or /mooc-scoop

Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

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Presentation for the Dutch Ministery of Education on the developments in Open and Online Education and the chances and challenges for public higher education.

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Page 1: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Transform to the power of digital

Open Online Education Chances & Challenges for Higher Education NL

Timo Kos

@timokos

/timokos

[email protected]

Capgemini Consulting Marketleader Education

slideshare.net/timokos

/timokos or /mooc-scoop

Page 2: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

Content

1. Open Online Education

2. A brief history

3. Disruptive Innovation?

4. Strategic scenario‟s

2

Page 3: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

3

Open Online Education: four related and interacting developments

Page 4: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

Content

1. Open Online Education

2. A brief history

3. Disruptive Innovation?

4. Strategic scenario‟s

4

Page 5: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

Open Distance Learning (ODL): dating back to the early 20th and 18 & 19th century Now dominated by the Open Universities

5

Page 6: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

Online Education: growing marketshare

6

‘Going the distance. Online Education in the United States, 2011’ (Infographic by Pearson Learning Solutions)

Page 7: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

7

Online (Distance) Learning: popular programs & courses

Table from ‘Study of UK online learning final report’, University of Oxford, 2010

Page 8: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

Online (Distance) Learning: student perspective

8

‘Online College Students 2012’, The Learning House and Aslanian Market Research

Page 9: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

9

President Charles Vest

MIT, 2001

“All courses for free,

On line”

Open Educational Resources: how it started

Page 10: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

OpenCourseWare (OCW)

“a free and open educational resource for faculty, students, and self-learners throughout the world.”

Open Content

Open

Educational

Resources

OCW

Open Educational Resources: Definitions

Open Educational Resources (OER)

„materials offered freely and openly to use and

adapt for teaching, learning, development and

research‟

Open Content

'freely available for modification, use and

redistribution‟

Page 11: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

Open Course Ware Consortium: 274 members (dec 2012)

Page 12: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

Open Educational Resources: growth of the number of open courses

12

Page 13: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

MOOC = Massive Open Online Courses (I) A. Early pioneers (2007/2008) of connectivism & social learning (now cMOOC)

13

David Wiley (Brigham Young University)

George Siemens (Athabasca University)

Stephen Downes (National Research Councel Canada)

Proponents of connectivism use the web to explore the possibilities of open & social (‘networked’) learning

Page 14: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

MOOC = Massive Open Online Courses (II) B. Pioneers (2011-2012) of free massive open online classes (now xMOOCs)

14

Salman Khan

Prof. Peter Norvig & Prof. Sebastian Thrun (Stanford)

Prof Andrew Nge & Prof. Daphne Koller (Stanford)

Prof. Anant Agarwal (MIT)

These proponents use the web to provide traditionally structured online courses for free and aim to ‘disrupt higher education and open it up to the masses’.

Page 15: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

xMOOC platforms: Technology start-ups building new digital distribution channels for ‘open’ online education...

15

Founded: April 2012 Founder: Koller & Nge (Stanford professors) Company: For profit Funding: $22 million (Venture Capitalist) # Universities: 70 # Courses: 400 # Topics: All academic fields # Students: 3,6 million Certification: Yes (most) Proctored examination: Yes, (5 accredited courses + partnership with ProctorU) Open Source: No (licenced)

Founded: May 2012 Founders: MIT & Harvard Company: Not- for-profit Funding: $60 million (Harvard / MIT: 30 each) # Universities: 27 # Courses: 20 # topics: ICT, Engineering, Health #students: ca. 1 miljoen Certification: Yes Proctoree examination: Yes (450 CBT locations in 110 countries via partnership with Pearson VUE) Open Source: Partly (licenced)

Founded: January 2012 Founder: Sebastian Thrun (ex Stanford professor) Company: For profit Funding: $15 million (Venture Capital) # Universities: none # Courses: 22 # Topics: ICT & STEM # Students: ca. 1 miljoen Certification: Yes Proctored examination: Yes (4000 CBT locations in 170 countries via partnership with Pearson VUE) Open Source: No (licenced)

Page 16: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

0 5 10 15 20

#1 - Harvard University

#3 - MIT

#4 - University of California- Berkley

#27 - University of Toronto

#35 - The University of Texas at Austin

#63 - McGill University

#64 - Australian National University

#91 - Rice University

#101-150 - École Polyt. Lausanne

#201-300 - Delft University of Tech.

#301-400 - Georgetown University

-# - Wellesley College

Number of courses announced or offered

Certificate after completion

Official on-campus course

Non-official course

Textbook digital available 0 5 10 15 20

Stanford University - #2

California Institute of Technology - #6

Princeton University - #7

Columbia University - #8

University of Pennsylvania - #14

University of California, San Diego - #15

University of Washington - #16

Johns Hopkins University - #17

University of California, San Francisco - #18

University of Wisconsin–Madison - #19

The University of Tokyo - #20

University of Michigan - #22

University of Illinois at Urbana-Ch. - #25

University of Toronto - #27

University of Minnesota - #29

Northwestern University - #30

University of Colorado Boulder - #33

Duke University - #36

University of Maryland, College Park - #38

The University of British Columbia -#39

The University of North Carolina - #41

University of Copenhagen - #44

University of California, Irvine -#45

Pennsylvania State University - #49

Vanderbilt University - #50 NO certificate after compl.

March 2013

Accredited course

.. partnering with top universtities of the Shanghai Ranking (ARWU) (25 from the top 50, including 7 from the top 10)

Page 17: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

…experimenting with online didactics from other successfull open education start-ups…

17

Founded: 2006 Founder: Salman Khan Company: non-profit Funding: $ 10 million

(Philantropists) # Courses: 3000+ weblectures (200 million + views) # Topics: Math, Science, History Art, etc.. # Students: ca. 8 million Certification: NO Proctoreed examination: NO Revenue Model: Non-profit Open Source: Yes

Founded: 2009 Founder: Phillip Schmidt Company: non-profit Funding: unknown (Philantropists) # Courses: 6 schools on open learning # Topics: Open Data, Education Webcraft Social Innovation Mathematical Future # Students: 30.000 Certification: NO Proctoreed examination: NO Revenue Model: Non-profit Open Source: Yes

Founded: 2011 Founders: Zach Sims and Ryan Bubinski Company: for-profit Funding: $ 12,5 million (Venture

Capital) # Courses: 5 # Topics: Javascript HTML & CSS Python, Ruby JQuery # Students: 550.000 Certification: NO Proctoreed examination: NO Revenue Model: Referral fee’s Open Source: No (licenced)

Page 18: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

… AND introducing new (non-formal) types of HE certificates issued for automatically and/or peer-graded exams.

18

Page 19: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

Monetization strategies for MOOCs

license model: a share of gross revenue between platform provider and universities offering courses hosted on the platform for tuition paid degee programs or fees for additional services to students (e.g. coaching)

Administrative fees: for certification on proctored exam locations

Recruitment fees: from corporations for recruiting talented students

Premium/Fremium model: free and upgraded paid versions of the MOOCs and services, resembling the ‘freemium’ and ‘premium’ payment models of other internet services

Advertisement: monetizing on the scale and social characteristics of users of the platform.

19

Page 20: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

Content

1. Focus

2. A brief history

3. Disruptive Innovation?

4. Strategic scenario‟s

20

Page 21: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

What will be the impact of Open Online Education on global & local Higher Education?

21

Is it a HYPE or a DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION?

Page 22: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

xMOOC platforms viewed from Gartners technology hypecycle perspective …

22

Browsers

Social Media

You Tube

Web Cams

MOOCs do not fit the characteristics of a technology hype

(although the media attention they receive do fit the characteristics of a media hype)

Page 23: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

The theory of ʺdisruptive innovationʺ

Online Education viewed from Christensens’s disruptive innovation perspective...

„A process by which a product or service

takes root initially in simple applications

at the bottom of a market and then

relentlessly moves „up market‟, eventually

displacing established competitors”

‒ Professor Clayton M. Christensen,

Harvard Business School

Author of Disrupting Class (2008) and The Innovative University (2011)

Low ranked (under) graduate degree programs

High ranked (under) graduate degree programs

Top ranked (under) graduate degree programs

Page 24: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

… and predicting exponential growth in the coming decade.

Source: ‘Disrupting College’ (C. Christensen e.a., feb 2011)

24

Page 25: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

The value propositons of OCW, MOOCs and Online Education compared:

25

Traditional education

(on-campus, f2f)

OpenCourseWare xMOOCs Online (Distance)

Learning Accessibility Selective/inclusive: (high) tuition,

admission requirements

Free and open access for everyone Free and open access for everyone Selective/inclusive: (high) tuition,

admission requirements

Instruction / classes Offline

(inflexible schedule)

Online courses, web-lectures &

digital learning materials

Online classes &

digital learning materials

Online courses

(flexible schedule),

Interaction between

students

Yes, mainly f2f & off-line No, self learners Yes,peer-to-peer via online

learning platforms and social

media and ‘MOOC-meetups’

Yes, online learning platforms,

virtual classrooms, and social

media

Quality Control Yes, Accreditation Yes: for content

No for process

No, only by reputation

(professor / ranking)

Yes, Accreditation

Interaction between

studens & faculty

Yes, (mainly ) off-line & on-campus No Yes, online learning platforms and

social media

Yes, online learning platforms and

social media

Exercises Yes, both individual and in groups Yes, as static teaching materials

(no student feedback)

Yes, online excercises (quizes) with

automated answers & feedback

Yes, revised by teacher/faculty

staff

Exams Yes, on campus & graded by faculty

staff

Yes, as static teaching materials

(no grading)

Yes, online & computer graded or

by peer-grading

Yes, online and graded by faculty

staff

Identity verification Yes, on campus No Yes: proctored exams in computer

based testing centres

Yes, through online or on campus

identification process

Deadlines Yes, fixed terms (semesters,

trimesters)

No Yes, dedicated course periods

during the year as well as deadlines

for homework & exams

Yes, several starting dates during

the year as well as deadlines for

homework & exams during coures

Certificate

Yes, Accredited No Yes, ACE accredited certificate

(only 5). Rest non-formal certificate

of accomplishment

Yes, Accredited

Degree

Yes, Accredited No Yes (not yet) Yes, Accredited

Page 26: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

The future? Early adoptors are positioning themselves for a new and truly global market for massive (low price) formal certificate & degree awarding online education

26

Traditional universities

Time

Ma

rket

seg

men

ts

cMOOC For Profit Universities

Self Learner Population (badges)

Certificate seeking (non-formal)

Degree & Certificate

seeking (formal)

F2F Campus (formal)

Page 27: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

And the future is already here: Georgia Institute of Technology & Udacity

27

• Accredited Massive Online Master Degree Program

• Price: $ 7000,- in stead of $ 40.000 per year

• Number of students: 10.000 in stead of 300 per year

• Number of faculty extra: 8 at Georgia Tech (for content)

• Revenu model: 60% for Georgia Tech, 40% for Udactity

Page 28: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

So are MOOCs a disruptive innovation for the online (distance) learning market? YES

28

1. MOOCs are distributed through new digital channels with a potential of attracting millions of visitors,

creating valuable digital channels with the potential of new (low price) revenu models that are common in

the internet economy (scale now, monetize later).

2. MOOCs serve a global mass market with a new value proposition that till recently was not available or

affordable for large groups of students around the world.

3. Some of the MOOC courses provide the same content as on campus courses, and claim to be of the

same academic quality.

4. MOOCs are not equal to a campus education, but a stripped down version targeted at a

studentpopulation who do not need the full value offered at the high end of the market

5. MOOCs are produced using widely accepted internet technology which enable any lecturer with a high

academic reputation to produce a MOOC by themselve and reach a potentially unlimited number of

students at a fraction of the cost per student that are needed for delivering traditional (online) university

lectures.

6. MOOCs offer a supplement to on-campus courses and are already being integrated in credited

(bachelor) degree programs.

7. MOOCs are replacing parts of the regular campus curriculum and thereby start to alter the business

model and operating model of brick-and-mortar universities (leading to speciliazation between

universities).

Page 29: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

Content

1. Open Online Education

2. A brief history

3. Disruptive Innovation?

4. Strategic scenario‟s

29

Page 30: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

What will be the possible financial impact on universities?

30

Moody’s Investors Service, Credit Outlook Higher Education Institutions USA, US Public Finance, Sept 2012

Page 31: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

Nyenrode Business University

MIT

TUD

Stanford

Universiteit

Leiden

Higher Education marketsegments – focus versus motive

31

Academ

ic

Pro

fessio

nal

Profit Not-for-profit

Fo

cu

s o

f q

ualifi

cati

on

Motive

Duisenberg School of Finance

Phoenix University

Kaplan University

NCOI

University of Liverpool

OU

HS Inholland

Universidad Europea de Madrid

Avans

INSEAD

Liberty U

NTI

DeVry

University of Southern California

University of Notre Dame

Page 32: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

Nyenrode Business University

MIT

TU Delft

Stanford

Universiteit

Leiden

Where do the MOOC Platforms fit in these markets for online higher education?

32

Acad

em

ic

(sele

ctive)

Pro

fessio

nal

(inclu

siv

e)

For-Profit Not-for-profit

Focus o

f qualif

ication

Motive

Duisenberg School of Finance

Phoenix University

Kaplan University

NCOI

University of Liverpool

Open

University

HS Inholland

Universidad Europea de Madrid

Avans

INSEAD

Liberty U

NTI

DeVry

University of Notre Dame

Page 33: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

Nyenrode Business University

Duisenberg School of Finance

Universidad Europea de Madrid

MIT Delft University of

Technology

Stanford Erasmus University

Rotterdam

When viewed as a disruptive innovation, an early adoption strategy for massive online education differs per market-segment

33

Acad

em

ic

(sele

ctive)

Pro

fessio

nal

(inclu

siv

e)

Profit Not-for-profit

Focus o

f qualif

ication

Motive

Phoenix University

Kaplan University

NCOI

Amsterdam University of Applied Science

Open University

Saxion University of Applied Science

LEVERAGE

GLOBAL

REPUTATION

ADD. PROF

NETWORK

SERVICES

LOCALLY

APPLIED

SCIENCES

LOW PRICE

FIGHT

MARKET

Page 34: Open and online education - chances and challenges for Higher Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.

Transform to the power of digital

Timo Kos, Principal Consultant Market Leader Education & Employability NL

Timo Kos

Phone: +31 (0)30 6897540 Mobile: +31 (0)6 47924140 [email protected]

http://linkedin.com/in/timokos

http://twitter.com/timokos

slideshare.net/timokos