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One Hundred Years of 'Disasterology'Looking Back and Moving Forward
David AlexanderUniversity College London
Rev. DrSamuel Henry Prince
1885-1960Nova Scotia,
Columbia University
'Disasterology' starts here
• the start of an academic field?
• S.H. Prince set the ball rolling
• human ecology of extreme eventsand situations began around then
• a symbolic 'big bang'.
Why the Halifax explosion isimportant to 'disasterology'
• much progress has been madein understanding disasters
• massive increase ininterest and participation
• do we have a well-defined body ofinformation/research/knowledge?
• from one journal to c. 84 (or 600).
One hundred years of disasterology6 Dec. 1917 - 6 Dec. 2017
• mainstreamed? [IPCC, etc.]
• legitimacy?
• position in the sciences
• position in society (private sector, public administration, ordinary life)
• sufficiently professional?.
From a field to a discipline(which it isn't yet)
Do we havetheory?
Theory, if it is any good,• explains• connects• validates• qualifies• makes more
efficient.
PractitionersEmergency services
Emergency managementagencies
Volunteer NGOs
ResearchersAcademicsConsultants
UsersThe general public
Businesses
Threeconstituencies
Academicknowledgeproducer
Simple phenomenon
Complex analysis
Beneficiary(knowledgeuser)
barrier oftechnicalcomplexity
Unsatisfactoryoutcome
BUT...
HAZARD,
RISK &
DISASTER
STUDIES
SEVEN SCHOOLSOF THOUGHT
Criminal justice
and forensic
science
and perhapsan eighth...
Sociology
Psychology
& psychiatry
Economic &
financial studies
Development
studies
Disaster medicine
& epidemiology
Physical &
construction
sciences
Geography &
anthropology:
cultural (human)
anthropology
The theory producers...
Ecology
Geology
(& Geomorphology)
Geophysics
(inc. Seismology)
VolcanologyClimatology
Hydraulics
Hydrology
Meteorology
Architecture
Civil engineering
Geotechnical engineering
Structural engineering
Mechanical &
electrical engineeringInformation &
communication
technology (ICT)
Computer technology
Remote sensing
Risk analysis (inc.
risk identification,
estimation,
management &
communication)
Cartography
Development studies
Economics
Geography, History
Jurisprudence & legal stds
Urban & regional planning
Mass media studies
Psychology
Sociology
Epidemiology
Nursing
Nutrition
Pharmacology
General medicine
Surgery &
emergency medicine
Public health, hygiene
& epidemiology
Veterinary sciences
Health sciencesSocial & spatial sciences
Computational
& analytical
sciences
Construction sciences
Atmospheric & water sciences
Earth & environmental sciences
HAZARD,
RISK &
DISASTER
CONSTITUENTDISCIPLINES
'Disasterology':
diverse,transverse,
but fragmented.
• to the management of incidents,emergencies, disasters and crises
• to emergency and crisis planning
• to urban and regional planning[weak connection - is it our fault?]
• to the evolution of society (inc. CCA)
• to climate change, sustainability,wealth differentials - i.e. vulnerability.
Connections
• a search for meaning
• disaster risk creation
• cultural constraints and opportunities
• an existential viewpoint.
How dodisasters work,
what dothey mean?
• science provides an evidencebase: politicians do not use it
• progress can go into reverse withfunding cuts or political changes
• ideology more important than rationality?
• people take risks and do not mitigate
• official views of DRR & human motivationare hopelessly divergent from reality.
A search for meaning
Disaster Risk Reduction
or disaster risk creation?
DisasterRisk
Reduction
Culture
Econom
ics
Access toknowledge
The w
eight
of h
isto
ry
CONSTRAINTS
Riskamplification
factors
Riskmitigationfactors
Totalvulnerability
Risk perceptionfactors- +
positivenegative
DIALECTIC
Vulnerability
Total: life is generally precariousEconomic: people lackadequate occupationTechnological/technocratic: dueto the riskiness of technologyDelinquent: caused bycorruption, negligence, etc.Residual: caused bylack of modernisationNewly generated: caused bychanges in circumstances
• corruption
• political decision-making
• shoddy building (often wilful)
• ignorance (sometimes wilful)
• seismicity.
What causes earthquake disasters?- in probable order of importance -
What is resilience?
Paradigm (n.): A conceptual ormethodological model underlying thetheories and practices of a scienceor discipline at a particular time;
(hence) a generally accepted world view.
• an objective, a process or a strategy?
• a paradigm, diverse paradigms?
• 'bounce-back' or 'bounce-forward'?
• focuses on the community scale?
• can reconcile dynamic & static elements?
Resilience
Many definitions:are we asking too much of resilience?
RESILIENCE:as a material has brittle strength and ductility:so must society havean optimum combination of resistance tohazard impacts and ability to adapt to them.
The "cradle"of resilience:
Canonbury TowerLondon N1.
Built in 1509to survive the
Universal Deluge:inhabited in 1625by Francis Bacon.
Francis BaconSylva Sylvarum, 1625
Basic concepts:hazard, vulnerability,
exposure, risk,impact, resilience, etc.
Hazardanalysis
Technical skills:telecomminications
computer, GIS, etc.Emergencyplanning
Emergencymanagement
Disastersociology andpsychology
Public informationmanagement
Recovery andreconstruction
planning
Methods ofrisk mitigation
Fieldexercises
Disaster and emergencymanagement training
• the definitional morass,minefield, swamp, quicksand
• what do you need to know to bea disasterologist? (who knows?)
• field has highly varied aims & objectives
• we teach a wide variety of groups
• how to create the professional figure?.
Pedagogical problems of 'disasterology'
• a well-defined body of readings
• a set of core topics (vulnerability,exposure, resilience, etc.)
• a teaching methodology (scenarios?)
• a consensus on basic knowledge.
How to define our curriculumWe need:-
Recognition andan institutionalrole for the
professional figure
Certificationof competence
Trainingprogrammes
Emergingprofessional
figure
Policies andlegislation
Research Experience
Organi-sation
Valuesystem
Familyculture
Workculture
Peergroupculture
Personalculture
National culture
Regional culture
Etic elementsof culture
Emic elements
of culture
Areaof culturalinterpenetration
BENIGN (healthy)at the service of the people
MALIGN (corrupt)at the service of vested interests
interplay dialectic
Justification Development
[spiritual, cultural, political, economic]
IDEOLOGY CULTURE
RISKSdaily: unemployment, poverty, disease, etc.major disaster: floods, storms, quakes, etc.emerging risks: pandemics, climate change
SUSTAINABILITYdisaster risk reduction
resource consumptionstewardship of the environment
economic activitieslifestyles and communities
SUSTAINABILITY
THE PILLARS OF MODERN LIFE
idealismprinciplebelieffaith
fanaticismultranationalismauthoritarianism
backlash
virtuecharityservicedefence of principles
unscrupulousnesscorruption
opportunismcensure
capital availabilitywealth diffusionfinancial security
financial repressiondebt burdenconsumerism
ingegnuitypragmatismtechnological progress
crass materialismgalloping consumption
pollution and wastetechnological hegemony
Ideocentrism
Morality
Luchrocentrism
Technocentrism
SPI
RIT
FLESH
PHILOSOPH
ICAL
MECHANISTIC
Positive Negative
...culturally conditioned.
Ideocentrism+ ideal: effective disaster mitigation- fanaticism: politicization of humanitarian relief
Morality+ virtue: untiring application of mitigation measures- corruption: failure to observe building codes
Luchrocentrism+ financial security: monetary reserves vs. disaster- financial repression: poverty --> vulnerability
Technocentrism+ ingenuity: new hazard monitoring systems- technological hegemony: unfair distribution of
mitigation benefits
HUMANCONSEQUENCES
OF DISASTER
“ORTHODOX” MODEL
PHYSICALEVENT
HUMANVULNERABILITY
“RADICAL CRITIQUE” (K. HEWITT et al.)HUMAN
CONSEQUENCESOF DISASTER
HUMANVULNERABILITY
PHYSICALEVENT
WHAT WE NEED NOW (21st Century)
HUMANCONSEQUENCES
OF DISASTER
HUMANVULNERABILITY
CULTURE HISTORYPHYSICALEVENTS
CONTEXT & CONSEQUENCES
C
E
E
E
E
C
E/C
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E/C
(a)(b) C – cause
E - effect
Escalationpoints
The rise of thecascading disaster
Source: Pescaroli and Alexander, in press
We must learnto live with complexity.
Not only that, but we also have to model it.
Conclusion: onthe shoulders
of giants
Learningprocesses
Improvedsafety
Lessonlearned
Change andinnovation
Experienceand theory
Recognition andcomprehension
Lesson tobe learned
• Unexpected event
• New circumstance
• Error• New
practice
Personalor privateinterestsPublic
interestCultural
acceptability
LESSONS...LEARNED?
Sustainablelessons Uncertainty,
unpredictability
LESSONS...LEARNED?
Incentivesto learn
Lesson to be learned:We will never even understandthe problem, let alone solve it,unless we start being realistic
about the world in which we live.
Tony Oliver-SmithKai Erikson
• as Kai Erikson noted, disaster shiftsour position on fundamental dimensions
• we live in the New Baroque Agecharacterised by tension of opposites
• massive cultural dynamism isredefining the symbolism of disaster
• to understand disaster, weneed to be interdisciplinarywith boldness and ingenuity.
There is no doubtthat "we live in
interesting times".
