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Presentation by Pedro Monteiro at the Inspiring Change Gathering in Cape Town, South Africa on 18 November 2011. www.climatesmartcapetown.co.za/events/inspiringchange
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Pedro MS Monteiro
CSIR, Rosebank
How the Planet Breathes
Domain 3: Southern Oceans
Tropical Eastern Atlantic
Domain 2b: Tropical
Western Indian
Advective and vertical feedbacks to global system
Southern African Regional Earth System
TWO ASSUMPTIONS
• Natural ocean fluxes of CO2 will remain
unchanged
• We can reduce atmospheric CO2 to
350ppm within a century
Fate of Global Emissions of CO2
GtC y-1
Global Carbon Project 2006
Global Carbon Budget (2000-2005) (PgC y-1)
Rintoul et al., 2009
Southern Ocean is the only connection between
38000 GtC Deep Ocean CO2 and atmosphere
Dan Costa, UCSC, USA
Are things changing?
100 years
1000 years
10,000 years
750 ppmCO2
275 ppmCO2
550 ppmCO2
350 ppmCO2
Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel CO2
Land Biosphere
Ocean Biosphere
100 years
1000 years
10,000 years
750 ppmCO2
275 ppmCO2
550 ppmCO2
350 ppmCO2
Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel CO2
Land Biosphere
Ocean Biosphere
CRISIS
OPPORTUNITY
CAPE TOWN:
COSMOPOLITAN SA CENTRE
KNOWLEDGE & INNOVATION
(CLIMATE – CARBON)
Centre for High Performance
Computing: Rosebank
Centre for Ocean Observations
Robotics and Sensor R&D: V&A
SA Agulhas II: in Cape Town April 2012
New Generation
Scientists and Engineers
Imaginative Innovation
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
Jan
-93
Jan
-95
Jan
-97
Jan
-99
Jan
-01
Jan
-03
Jan
-05
Jan
-07
Jan
-09
Jan
-11
Dif
fere
nce
Cap
e T
ow
n C
O2
-B
ackg
rou
nd
CO
2 p
pm
Date
Cape Point CO2 - Cape Town Influence
SA - Integrated Carbon Observatory Network (SA-ICON)
Cape Town metro pilot
study
Southern Oceans
Tropical Eastern Atlantic
Tropical Western Indian
V urgent action
<450ppm
Innovative
Development
Opportunities
Cape Town