Nile Basin Focal Project

Nile Basin Focal ProjectjReview of Plans

IWMI–ILRI- NBI- ENTRO-World FishConsortiumConsortium

by

02/02/2008, Cali Supported by: CPWF

Supported by: CPWF

IntroductionThe Nile Basin: Some statistics

• River: Longest river in the worldRiver: Longest river in the world, 6,670km; 3,400,000 km²

• Basin countries: Burundi• Basin countries: Burundi, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda,Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda

• Population: riparian 360M, basinPopulation: riparian 360M, basin exceeds 180M


Importance of the Nile– The current dependence of countries

• The D/s complete dependence• For U/s as an opportunity to overcome poverty

– Ecosystemy• Important ecosystem functions such as wetland, fisheries,

recession agriculture, …

– Potentials• Great hydropower to overcome energy shortage• Significant irrigation potential• Significant irrigation potential• Significant potential to improve rainfed• Scope for flood defense

S i f t d t ti l f ll d ti it i


• Saving of water and potential of overall productivity increase

Key Problems :BFP Related

Nil t A 84 1BMCNile at Aswan = 84.1BMC

Atbara = 11.1BMC

Blue Nile at Khartoum = 48.3BMC

White Nile at Khartoum = 26.0BMC

About 86% comes from Eastern Nile Ethiopia


About 86% comes from Eastern Nile, Ethiopia


• Water, Food and Poverty: Food Crises, Famine & Disaster related to water

Drought and Disaster Affected Population

10

15

20

25

popu

latio

n (m

illion or

%ge

)

Disaster/drought affectedpopulation (mil)Proportion affected (%)

0

5

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year (Ethiopian Calender)

Affe

cted

p

Amount of Food Required (MT)1 800

538707

1,324

798897

1,570

965819

8001,0001,2001,4001,6001,800

Thou

sand

s

Req

uire

d (M

T) High Rainfall Variability and Flood. Kenya 1956-1982

Fl d K S d Ethi i276 300

538

0200400600

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Year

Foor

R Flood: Kenya, Sudan, Ethiopia


Drought and consequential food aid-Ethiopia


Water, Food and Poverty: Agriculture, GDPN ile B asin Ag ricu ltu ra l P opu lation

Data: A fric a Developm ent Indic atros , 2006 bas ed on 2004 data

100–Major occupation is

30405060708090

100

ltura

l Pop

ulat

ion

1979-19811989-19911999-200120032004

agricultural, with slow transformation

01020

Egypt

SudanCongo, D

R

KenyaTanza

nia

Erit rea

UgandaEth iopiaBuru

ndiRwanda

Agr

icul 2004

Im p a c t o f ra in fa ll v a r ia b ility o n G D P a n d A g r ic u ltu ra l G D P g ro w th

6 0

8 02 02 5

C ountrie s

–GDP and Agricultural GDP-correlates to Rainfall V i bilit E Ethi i

-2 0

0

2 0

4 0

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

%

-1 0-5051 0

1 5Variability. Eg. Ethiopia

02/02/2008, Cali Supported by: CPWF-8 0

-6 0

-4 0

y e a r-3 0-2 5-2 0

-1 5

ra in fa ll va ria b i li tyG D P g ro w thA g G D P g ro w th

Physical and Economic Water ScarcityEast Africa Per Capita Physical Water Availablity

Physical scarcity: Not 1500

2000

2500

r Res

ourc

es p

er

m^3

)scarcity: Not enough water. 500

1000

Inte

rnal

Fre

sh W

ater

Cap

ita (m

Economic Scarcity: Not infrastructure 7/10 in Nile basin are

0Burundi Rwanda Somalia Kenya Eritrea Sudan Uganda Ethiopia Tanzania

Countries

I

infrastructure to make water

il bl t

7/10 in Nile basin are already physically water scarce

available to people


National rainfall map shows better true picture of physical water scarcity eg. Ethiopia: globally not physical scarce, but >50% of Ethiopia is actually physically scarce


8 000

Despite the potential, low intervention and water usage eg in irrigation

6,000

7,000

8,000irrigation potential (1000 ha)existing irrigation (1000 ha)

3,000

4,000

5,000

1,000

2,000

3,000

0

Burundi

DRC

Egypt

Eritrea

Ethiopia

KenyaRwanda

SudanTan

zania

Uganda


Irrigation potential and usage per Nile country (not all are Nile dependent potentials)


• The basin is complex. Keys are:t fi d b l b t l l f d t il d– to find a balance between level of detail and analysis required and the need to gain an overall picture of water productivity livelihoodsoverall picture of water, productivity, livelihoods, and poverty within the basin

– How do CP projects and the BFP contribute toHow do CP projects and the BFP contribute to solutions in the basin


The Work Packages Inter-linkages

Analysisy

Nile BFP

Poverty

Water Availability Nile BFP

Goal and Objectives

Water Availability And Access

Agricultural Water

Development and Application of

Knowledge BaseAgricultural Water

Productivity

InstitutionsInstitutions

Interventions


Work & Outputs

Phase I: InceptionD fi d d t il t d it d ti– Defined detail study sites recommendations

– Database of gathered literatureW lk /b i t t– Walkover/basin tour report

– Established consortium of implementing and d iadvisory groups

– Detailed project design document including impact pathway gant chart milestones taskimpact pathway, gant chart, milestones, task sharing, …


Phase II. Implementation Phase

• Poverty Analysis (WP1)– Literature review report on poverty and vulnerabilityLiterature review report on poverty and vulnerability– GIS products and shape files – Database on poverty– Poverty and vulnerability map– Spatial information and maps on population-poverty,

d ti t t t d l bilitproduction systems-poverty, poverty and vulnerability, etc

– Tools for disseminating spatial information system oo s o d sse a g spa a o a o sys etogether with WP6


Phase II (cont’d)

• Water Availability and Access(WP2)– Literature review report on basin information (from master plans,

published and grey literature )published and grey literature, …) – Rapid assessment of regional and global data sets DataWP2.doc– Product and report on water use for current and future trends

Simulated information (for data scarce locations)– Simulated information (for data scarce locations)– Water accounting report for various production system– Water availability information

Major ater components disaggregated spatiall and temporall (basin• Major water components disaggregated spatially and temporally (basin and sub-basin; monthly, seasonal, annual)

• Variability and trends at key locations• Water availability and scarcity mapsy y p• Maps of various types of drought and their indices


Phase II (cont’d)

• Agricultural Water Productivity (WP3)– Literature review report on production systems (rainfed, irrigated,

pastoral fisheries wetlands including interactions) based onpastoral, fisheries, wetlands including interactions) based on national and regional statistical data, databases and reports on water productivity, yields, value of products. Also based on existing CP projects, FAO, NBI, ENTRO, …

– Rapid assessment report signifying on physical and economic water productivity per unit of water depleted by evapotranspiration and other uses R t l i f ti ll di t d b d– Report on analysis of spatially disaggregated areas based on poverty, productivity and pressures

– Knowledge of the basin based on how water availability and access impact livelihoods vulnerability and growth opportunities at andimpact livelihoods, vulnerability and growth opportunities at and across different scales and uses

– Information package on water productivity, livelihood, poverty and their interactions


Phase II (cont’d)

• Institutional Analysis(WP4)– Literature review report on

• National and transnational policies, Economy-wide policies/institutions macro-p , y peconomic issues, trade.

• Policies/institutions affecting investment in water resources, allocation and use of water

• Conflicts (origin, prediction, prevention and resolution)I l di id tifi ti f Diff b t itt li /l d ti d• Including identification of: Difference between written policy/law and practice and why; Gaps in the policy or legislative framework; Institutions that can play key roles in generation and dissemination of knowledge

– comprehensive and detailed water related institutional analysis and trends in the countries and the basinthe countries and the basin

– Detail analysis report on key areas where policy/institutional constraints affect poverty, or reallocation of water

– PRA (Participatory rural appraisal) report to understand the interplay of institutions at various scaleinstitutions at various scale

– Report on institutional and policy change needs and on good practices for such changes

– Information product on Institutional setup across countries, basin level, and actors Engagement of advisory panel NBI


actors. Engagement of advisory panel, NBI,

Phase II (cont’d)

• Intervention Analysis (WP5)– Literature review report on: intervention types under various

production systems; sub basins; success and failures; interventionproduction systems; sub-basins; success and failures; intervention scales; technical, policy and institutional factors;…

– Mapped intervention types– Detail analysis report on performance of interventions– Detail analysis report on performance of interventions, – Models for evaluating quantitative impacts of interventions– Special study report on recommendations report on suits of

interventions, necessary mechanisms and implicationsinterventions, necessary mechanisms and implications– Tradeoffs analysis, ranking and modeling result report to identify

high potential interventions and their impacts– Problem tree and impact pathway report p p y p


Phase II (cont’d)

• Development and application of the knowledge base (WP6)

I t t d t t– Inventory report on data sets– Common share point platform for all datasets– Adaptation and customization of previous knowledge p p g

product (GIAM, Poverty Map, Population Map,…)– Communication mechanism amongst core team,

advisory panel and stakeholders (working meeting, k h t i i )workshops, training,…)

– Communication platform (newsletter, D-group, etc) among BFPs and COPs

– Report on analysis of impact of the project on boundary partners (short term)

– Synthesis workshop report


Expected Nile BFPAchievement and Beneficiaries

– Enhanced awareness and understanding of the problems in the basinproblems in the basin

– Well developed GIS supported information and database system for the basin that can be used by all t k h ldstakeholders

– Development of scientific methodologies and methods of analysis for population, poverty, y p p p yproduction systems, policy and intuitions for Nile Water Governance

– Highly interacting basin communicate and effectiveHighly interacting basin communicate and effective networks

– Matured web-site, D-groups, and media serving as a common pool for Nile knowledge system


common pool for Nile knowledge system

PartnersImplementing partners• IWMI: lead institution• ILRI: leads poverty analysis, contributes to WPs • NBI: leads institution, contributes to WPs • ENTRO: contributes to WPs• World Fish: major role in WP4, contributes to other WPs

CPWF Nil B i C di t• CPWF Nile Basin CoordinatorConsultative group:• Nile CoM, Nile TAC, NBI 7 SVPs, ENSAP and NELSAP Projects, FAO,

ASARECA Universities ARIs CGIAR centers NGOsASARECA, Universities, ARIs, CGIAR centers, NGOs, … Special Study Team:• Consultants, professionals, professors, … undertaking specific studies eg.

country study, specific competence area study, etcExisting project and programs:• 4 CP projects: CP37, CP19, CP28, CP36• Many non CP projects such as BMZ-Livestock and CC projects (IWMI),

RiPPLE (ODI) SAKSS (ILRI IFPRI) World Bank and AfDB projects


RiPPLE (ODI), SAKSS (ILRI-IFPRI), World Bank and AfDB projects

Beneficiaries

• Local and Sub-Sector Institutions: Agriculture (Crop Fisheries LivestockAgriculture (Crop, Fisheries, Livestock, Irrigation), DPP, Hydropower, Environment, …

• National Institutions: Country Basin Authorities, NGOs, …, ,

• Regional Institutions/Community: NBI-SVP and SAP; ASARECA, IGAD, NEPAD, ….; , , ,

• Global: CGIAR, Donors,


Conclusion

• The Nile Basin is complex river basin and highly variable in terms of water availability, development, use and

tmanagement• There is no comprehensive and adequate information

systemy• There are quite a lot of actors in the Basin but not well

networked and interacting• The Nile Basin still possesses high potential for• The Nile Basin still possesses high potential for

development, but require breakthrough in win-win cooperationO t t f Nil BFP ld i ifi tl t ib t t• Outputs of Nile BFP could significantly contribute to establishing a consorted research efforts and knowledge base linking directly to development


Th k YThank You


Education

Nile Basin Focal Project