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The Flat Horizon Problem
Mike Treder, Executive DirectorCenter for Responsible Nanotechnology
nanotechnology on an upward
slope
Stand by the ocean, looking out. It is rare in nature to find a truly flat line, but that’s what
the horizon appears to be.
Stand by the ocean, looking out. It is rare in nature to find a truly flat line, but that’s what
the horizon appears to be.
Of course, the
horizon is not a flat
line.
It curves, but
gradually,
and it
isn’t
easy
for us
to detect
the curve.
In truth, it’s not
a line at all,
because the earth
has no edge.
We can understand, though, why many premodern societies believed the earth to be flat, with an edge somewhere.
After all, that’s how it looks.
Now, stand in the present, looking
toward the future. Does it look pretty much like today,
except more modern?
In reality, the future holds many
changes: some transformative, some beneficial,
and some dangerous.
The most disruptive future changes may occur as a result of molecular
manufacturing, an advanced form of nanotechnology.
But if the future really will be so different from today, why doesn’t it look that way from here?
The Intuitive Linear View
Time
Change
The problem is human perspective, what Ray Kurzweil calls the “Intuitive Linear View.” When we see something that looks like a straight line, we naturally assume that it is. Although change occurs around us every day, unless we look closely we may not notice it. So, we logically think that last week, last month, and last year were like today, and that next year and a few years after that won’t be much different either.
Now, stand on the rails of a roller coaster, just before the climb up
the highest hill (in your imagination only!).
Ant
Crouch down low, until your eye is even with the track. Get an ant’s eye view…
To an ant, the track looks totally flat, like it goes
on flat forever. The ant can’t see far enough.
In reality, the track gradually curves upwards.
Standing up, you, the human, can see the slope
ahead and the smooth incline of the track.
Walk up the track toward the big hill. The further you go, the steeper the curve becomes. If you look back, it’s clear how high you have ascended.
But crouch down for the ant’s eye view again, and what do you see?
The ant sees more flat track, whether looking
forward or back.
Leave the roller
coaster now and come back to reality.
Stand up really tall, peer back into history, and imagine how things seemed from the Intuitive Linear View…
1885:1885:No such thing as automobiles or
airplanes.
1885:
1885:
The British Empire will last forever.
1926
1926:
1926:
No such thing as television or cable.
1926:
1926:
The stock market will rise forever.
1957:
1957:
No such thing as
communications satellites or the
Berlin Wall.
Cuba
1957:
1957:
The sunny business
partnership between Cuba and
the USA will prosper forever.
1967:
1967:
No such thing as desktop computers or cell phones.
Kennedy & King1967
:1967
:Martin Luther King and Bobby Kennedy will be
leaders for decades to
come.
1974
"It will be years, not in my time, before a woman
will become Prime Minister.“
1974:1974:
— Margaret Thatcher
1986:
1986:
No such thing as the World Wide Web.
1986:
1986:
The Soviet Union and the Cold War will last forever.
1995
1995:
1995:Spam is
a luncheon meat.
19951995:
1995:Terrorism is
something bad that happens to someone
else .
20052005
Graphic Rendition of a Desktop NanofactoryCourtesy of John Burch, Lizard Fire Studios
2005:
2005:
No such thing as molecular manufacturing.
Current socio-political conditions and structures will
last forever.
Current socio-political conditions and structures will
last forever.
2005:
2005:
The idea that nothing really changes… It’s simple to see
how wrong this is, but it’s easy to slip into.
The idea that nothing really changes… It’s simple to see
how wrong this is, but it’s easy to slip into.
As for nanotechnology’s
transformative and disruptive
impacts, we’re on the roller
coaster heading toward the
big climb. Progress is occurring
every day, taking us closer,
even if we don’t notice the
gradual incline. Soon,
however, the curve
will sharpen and
take us rapidly into
a future for which
we may not
be prepared.
The Coming Nanotechnology Revolution
The Coming Nanotechnology Revolution
Not just new products — a new means of production Manufacturing systems that make more manufacturing
systems — exponential proliferation Accelerated product improvement — cheap rapid
prototyping Affects all industries— general-purpose technology Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligible capital
cost — economic discontinuity Portable, desktop-size factories — social disruption Impacts will cross borders — global transformation
Computers
BIG STEPS in Economic, Social, and Political
History
BIG STEPS in Economic, Social, and Political
History
Time
Change
Automobiles
Railways
Steam Engines
Time
Change
BIG STEPS in Economic, Social, and Political
History
BIG STEPS in Economic, Social, and Political
History
Not Steps, but S-Shaped Curves
Not Steps, but S-Shaped Curves
Time
Change
Time
Change
Not Steps, but S-Shaped Curves
Not Steps, but S-Shaped Curves
Time
Change
Not Steps, but S-Shaped Curves
Not Steps, but S-Shaped Curves
Societ
al
Im
pact
s
Time
Industrial RevolutionsIndustrial
Revolutions
Societ
al
Im
pact
s
Time (Measured in
decades)
Industrial RevolutionsIndustrial
Revolutions
Societ
al
Im
pact
s
Time (Measured in
YEARS)
Nanotechnology Revolution
Nanotechnology Revolution
Societ
al
Im
pact
s
Time
Accelerated ImpactsAccelerated Impacts
Industrial Revolutions
Molecular Manufacturing
Revolution
Societ
al
Im
pact
s
Time
The Next Big StepThe Next Big Step
Steam Engines
Computers
Railways
Automobiles
(Middle Ages)
Societ
al
Im
pact
s
Time
Steam Engines
Computers
Railways
Automobiles
(Middle Ages)
Nanotechnology
The Next Big StepThe Next Big Step
Nanotechnology
Societ
al
Im
pact
s
Time
The Next Big StepThe Next Big Step
Steam Engines
Computers
Railways
Automobiles
(Middle Ages)
Now is the time to stand up, get out of the Intuitive Linear View, avoid the Myth of Perpetuation, and observe the upward curve…
Now is the time to stand up, get out of the Intuitive Linear View, avoid the Myth of Perpetuation, and observe the upward curve…
Once we have gained perspective, we can begin to make wise decisions for
a better and safer nano future!
Once we have gained perspective, we can begin to make wise decisions for
a better and safer nano future!
Nanotechnology on an Upward
Slope
Nanotechnology on an Upward
Slope Mike Treder
Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
![Introduction to Nanotechnology What is Nanotechnology While many definitions for nanotechnology exist, the [National Nanotechnology Initiative] NNI calls](https://img.pdfslide.us/doc/110x75/56649d9e5503460f94a88dbf/introduction-to-nanotechnology-what-is-nanotechnology-while-many-definitions.jpg)
