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Bayesian belief network modelling
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BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORK MODELING
Professor Ockie Bosch
Dr Nam Nguyen
4. IDENTIFY LEVERAGE/ SYSTEMIC
INTERVENTIONS
3. DEVELOP OR REFINE SYSTEMS
MAPS OR MODELS
1. IDENTIFY ISSUES
7. REFLECTION
Environmental
Eco
no
mic So
cial
New Levels of Learning and Performance at Local Level
A Reminder: Where does BBN modeling fit into the
Evolutionary Learning Laboratory for Managing Complex Issues?
5. INTEGRATED
SYSTEMIC
MANAGEMENT
PLAN
2. BUILD
CAPACITY
6. IMPLEMENT
STRATEGIES,
POLICIESStakeholders’
Mental Models
Systems
Structure
Patterns &
Relationships
Cultural Values
Pollution
Temporary
immigration
Empoloyment
opportunity
Land required
for tourism
Naturalbeauty
Availability of
underground water
Fresh water
consumption
Employment
opportunity for local
people
+
+
Socialissues
Infrastruture
& facility
+
+
Number of
tourists
Attractiveness
of Cat Ba Island
+-
-
+
Wealth of
local people
-
+
Waste+
+
+
+
Illegal forest
exploitaion--
Total
population
+
Agricultural
Production
Livingcost
-
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
Conservation and
agricultural land
-
+
-
B2
B1R1
R3
R2
B3
B4
B5
B6
Studentpopulation
Assess toeducation
+
-
-
-
R5
R4
Investment+
+
+
Resident
population
+
+
BAYESIAN NETWORK MODELS
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
Useful for Participatory Systems Analysis
Easy to construct for non-modellers - Visual
Ideal mechanism for integrating mental models, different types and forms of knowledge and data
Can link qualitative and quantitative factors in one model
They represent complex systems (i.e. link data, information and processes)
Quantify uncertainties through the use of probabilities
Easily updateable – through adaptive management/learning by doing
Determine what to do systemically (not just trial and error)
Can rapidly perform diagnostic and sensitivity analysis; Scenario testing
Useful for developing strategic and operational plans
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
Why using Bayesian Belief Network Models?
Nodes (Variables) TempRain
GrowthRepresentation of
• Graph theory (structures)
• Probability theory (strength of relationships
between variables
Inputs:
• Expert opinion (technical / non-technical)
• Literature findings
• Monitoring & research data
• Other models
Links (Representing causal relationships)
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
What is a Bayesian Network?
IMPROVEMENT OF …..
Probability that systemic intervention will achieve the goal
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
A
IMPROVEMENT OF …..
Probability that systemic intervention will achieve the goal
B
Things You Can Do – Management Interventions
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
1 2 3
A
IMPROVEMENT OF …..
Probability that systemic intervention will achieve the goal
B
Effects or Outcomes ofManagement Interventions
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
X
Other ControllingFactors
Y
1 2 3
A
IMPROVEMENT OF …..
Probability that systemic intervention will achieve the goal
B
C D FE
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
X
Other ControllingFactors
Y
1 2 3
A
IMPROVEMENT OF …..
Probability that systemic intervention will achieve the goal
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
B
C D FEC D FE
X YA B
PlanningG H JI
What needs to be in place?
Preparation
INTEGRATED STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT PLAN
Systemic Interventions; Strategies; Activities;
Projects; Timing
Probability to improve SDM into a world class institution
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
Probability to improve SDM into a world class institution
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
Work_Pressure
ReducedIncreased
48.351.7
Qual_of_Life_WISSA
HighLow
37.962.1
Knowledge_Skills
ImprovedUnchanged
47.352.7
Family_Support
YesNo
36.963.1
Infrastructure
ModernPoor
45.854.3
Gov_Support
EffectiveIneffective
50.050.0
Produce_Quality
HighPoor
29.970.1
Market_actors_Linkages
StrongWeak
36.064.0
Producer_Groups
StrongWeak
15.085.0
Branding
YesNo
23.976.1
Market_Access
GoodPoor
36.863.2
Satisfied_Consumers
YesNo
33.466.6
Stable_Markets
YesNo
37.462.6
Income
HighLow
32.767.3
Quality_control
EffectiveIneffective
15.085.0
Secondary_Jobs
AvailableUnavailable
18.082.0
Produce_Prices
HighLow
28.771.3
Eco_friendly_Practices
YesNo
30.070.0
Toxic_Chemicals_Use
ReducedIncreased
29.770.3
Rural_hygience
CleanPoor
25.075.0
Health
GoodNot_good
26.973.1
Service_groups
EffectiveIneffective
66.533.5
Implements
AvailableUnavailable
25.374.8
Prod_efficiency
HighLow
51.548.5
Input_prices_quality
SatisfactoryUnsatisfactory
30.869.2
Access_Healthcare
YesNo
30.969.1
Healthcare_Services
EffectivePoor
35.065.0
Training_content_relevance
YesNo
40.060.0
Capital
AvailableInsufficient
10.090.0
Qual_Training
YesNo
39.860.2
Old_Customs
YesNo
10.090.0
Willingness_to_learn
YesNo
70.030.0
Social_Engagement
HighLow
13.087.0
Learning_Capacity
HighPoor
60.040.0
Qual_Trainers
GoodPoor
55.045.0
Production_Cost
ReducedExpesive
35.864.2
Product_Diversification
YesNo
40.060.0
Work_sharing
YesNo
38.761.3
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
Quality of Life of Ghana women in agriculture - Current situation
Work_Pressure
ReducedIncreased
78.221.8
Qual_of_Life_WISSA
HighLow
75.824.2
Knowledge_Skills
ImprovedUnchanged
65.734.3
Family_Support
YesNo
83.017.0
Infrastructure
ModernPoor
90.010.0
Gov_Support
EffectiveIneffective
100 0
Produce_Quality
HighPoor
82.317.7
Market_actors_Linkages
StrongWeak
100 0
Producer_Groups
StrongWeak
100 0
Branding
YesNo
65.834.2
Market_Access
GoodPoor
76.823.2
Satisfied_Consumers
YesNo
64.535.5
Stable_Markets
YesNo
95.05.00
Income
HighLow
78.521.5
Quality_control
EffectiveIneffective
15.085.0
Secondary_Jobs
AvailableUnavailable
100 0
Produce_Prices
HighLow
73.426.6
Eco_friendly_Practices
YesNo
100 0
Toxic_Chemicals_Use
ReducedIncreased
82.217.7
Rural_hygience
CleanPoor
25.075.0
Health
GoodNot_good
63.136.9
Service_groups
EffectiveIneffective
73.027.0
Implements
AvailableUnavailable
100 0
Prod_efficiency
HighLow
87.512.5
Input_prices_quality
SatisfactoryUnsatisfactory
95.05.00
Access_Healthcare
YesNo
67.132.9
Healthcare_Services
EffectivePoor
100 0
Training_content_relevance
YesNo
40.060.0
Capital
AvailableInsufficient
100 0
Qual_Training
YesNo
56.044.0
Old_Customs
YesNo
10.090.0
Willingness_to_learn
YesNo
100 0
Social_Engagement
HighLow
100 0
Learning_Capacity
HighPoor
60.040.0
Qual_Trainers
GoodPoor
100 0
Production_Cost
ReducedExpesive
83.916.1
Product_Diversification
YesNo
100 0
Work_sharing
YesNo
78.421.6
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
Systemic interventions identified
Follow steps on you computers
Demonstration on
How to populate the model
I. What can be done to achieve the goal (address the goal)? (3 Max. per group)
II. Why would you take these actions (what will be the outcomes that will lead to achieving the goal)? (2-3 Max. per action)
III. What factors could influence the outcomes mentioned under point 2?
IV. What need to be in place for the actions to happen? (2 – 3 Max. per action)
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
Live Demonstration with Netica & Hands-on