Theory of Change &

Application of the Results Based Management approach

in

Program Design, Monitoring and Evaluation

By Nguyen Quoc Phong

Hanoi, July 08, 2016

Contents

Theory of Change

(TOC)

Results based management

(RBM)

• What is a TOC?

• Why do we need a TOC?

• How to create a TOC?

• 4 principles of TOC

• What's the Difference

Between a TOC and a Logic

Model?

• What is a RBM?

• Why do we need a RBM?

• 4 principles of RBM

• How to do a RBM?

What is a TOC?

A hypothesized series of changes that are expected to

occur in a given context as the result of specific actions.

The TOC makes explicit how a program/activity design

team thinks outputs from their interventions will interact

with other concurrent interventions and contextual

conditions to stimulate or enable a series of outcomes

that will ultimately lead to the achievement of desired

objectives.

TOC Elements

TOC ELEMENTS

Context for the initiative

Long-term change

Process of change

Assumptions

Diagram and narrative summary

Why do we need a TOC?

• To develop a causal pathway to identify necessary

and sufficient outcomes needed to achieve a goal

• To develop a roadmap that shows how a set of

actions would help achieve a goal

• To identify and highlight interventions and

assumptions that are critical to produce an outcome

• To identify critical areas addressed by external actors

and how the project will link to them

How to create TOC? 1. Identify the long term goal.

2. Build the outcome map to identify the preconditions necessary to achieve that goal.

3. Identify the interventions that your initiative will perform to create these preconditions.

4. Develop indicators for each outcome that will be used to assess the performance of the interventions.

5. Write a narrative that can be used to summarize the various moving parts in your theory

Project Level Goal

Purpose Level

Outcome

Purpose Level

Outcome

Purpose Level

Outcome

Pathways of Change

Output

Immediate Outcome

Immediate Outcome

Sub-Purpose Outcome

Output Output

Sub-Purpose Outcome

Immediate Outcome

Sub-Purpose Outcome

TOC Conceptual Model

Output Output

Immediate Outcome

4 principles of TOC

Focus on progress

Prioritise leaning

Be locally

led

Think compass not map

What's the Difference Between

a TOC and a Logic Model?

TOC Recaps • Strategic planning: TOC helps organisations practically to map the

change process and its expected outcomes and facilitates project

implementation.

• Monitoring and evaluation: TOCs articulate expected processes and

outcomes that can be reviewed over time.

• Description: TOC allows organisations to communicate their chosen

change process to internal and external partners.

• Learning: TOC helps people to clarify and develop the theory behind

their organisation or programme.

What is a RBM? RBM is a management approach and project Planning,

Monitoring, Evaluation & Reporting tool aimed at to improve management effectiveness and accountability in achieving developmental results.

RBM is focused on chain results: output, outcomes, and impact.

RBM objectively measure how well results are being achieved and report on measures taken to improve them.

It enable senior management and Project Management team to judge if work is going in the right direction, whether progress and success can be claimed, and how future efforts might be improved on the basis of ground realities and data.

RBM is concerned with learning, risk management and accountability.

The RBM life-cycle approach

What is Result

Inputs

Activities Outputs Outcomes Impact

How?

What we want? Why?

Results

Results chain

Traditional M&E Vs RBM

Traditional M&E RBM

Focuses on inputs & Activities and

success is measured by status of

results

Focuses on internal results and

performance of organization in

producing developmental results

and positive changes in society.

Why do we need a RBM?

1. Improved focus on results instead of activities

2. Improved transparency, quality & accountability

3. Improved measurement of programme achievements (performance rather than utilization)

4. Enhanced strategic focus

5. It is a global trend: using results-based management to improve the efficiency of development program

4 principles of RBM

1. Define expected results first and

activities later

2. Foster the active participation of

stakeholders

3. Ensure that all stakeholders work

towards achieving expected results

4. Apprise your work critically and learn

the lessons

How to do a RBM? (Application RBM in Program Design, Monitoring and Evaluation)

1. Analyzing problems and determining their causes;

2. Identifying measurable changes (results) to be achieved based on problem analysis;

3. Designing strategies and activities that will lead to these changes (results);

4. Balancing expected results with the resources available;

5. Monitoring progress regularly and adjusting activities to ensure results are achieved;

6. Evaluating, documenting and incorporating lessons learned into next planning phase;

7. Reporting on the results achieved and their contribution to achieving goals.

How to depict the Results chain?

RBM Recaps

• RBM are good and useful techniques but it won’t

work itself and not sufficient to achieve results

• RBM depends on the organization's ability to create

a management culture that is focused on results.

• Manage change in your organization.

And, most of all, learn through our work

and reivise our theory with every lesson.

Q&A

References

• What is Theory of Change http://www.theoryofchange.org/

• Fundamentals of Theory of Change http://www.actknowledge.org

• Understanding theory of change in international development:

http://www.theoryofchange.org/wp-

content/uploads/toco_library/pdf/UNDERSTANDINGTHEORYOFChan

geSteinValtersPN.pdf

• Review of the use of ‘Theory of Change’ in international development:

http://r4d.dfid.gov.uk/pdf/outputs/mis_spc/DFID_ToC_Review_VogelV

7.pdf

• Results based management handbook, UNDP, October 2011

• Presentation of Barbara Reed & Dan Houston from USAID, October

2014

• Presentation of Mr. Fida Karim from IDARA, August 2015