8 recommendations to improve the public conversation

David Wood @dw2

Chair, London Futurists londonfuturists.com

Principal, Delta Wisdom deltawisdom.com

Lessons from 10 years of public meetups addressing existential risk

Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk 2016

@dw2 Page 2

Is it wise to discuss existential risks with “the public”?

• No!

• It’s bound to alarm people

• They will over-react

• Populist politicians will inexpertly impose inappropriate constraints

• The discussion will result in more harm than good

• Yes!

• It’s risky, but doing nothing is also risky :-o

• A discussion will happen, whether or not x-risks professionals are involved

• We can learn to apply good skills from the fields of marketing and politics

@dw2 Page 3

Technology marketing lifecycle

Laggards, sceptics

Early adopters,

visionaries Technology enthusiasts

Early majority

Late majority

Geoffrey Moore: Crossing the Chasm; Everett Rogers: The Diffusion of Innovations

Initial messaging

Initial messaging, amplified (louder) ?

@dw2 Page 4

Technology marketing lifecycle

Laggards, sceptics

Customers want technology and

features

Customers want complete solutions, reliability,

and convenience

Early adopters,

visionaries Technology enthusiasts

THE

CH

ASM

Early majority

Late majority

Can accept poor usability

Won’t accept poor usability

Ready to walk a solitary path

Require social validation

Geoffrey Moore: Crossing the Chasm; Everett Rogers: The Diffusion of Innovations

Credible, comprehensive solutions to real-world problems

@dw2 Page 5

Theoretical problem

• A future AGI consciously choosing values different to those programmed into it by humans

• Climate change will cause drastic rise in sea water level by end of 21st century

• Synthetic biology causes a split of the human species

• Physicists create black hole

Real-world problem

• Near-future software systems with bugs, design flaws, or security defects, with pervasive impact

• Climate change is already causing increasingly chaotic weather: floods, droughts…

• Experimental genetics creates fast-spreading pathogen

• Terrorists obtain new WMD

@dw2 Page 6

Real-world solutions

• Cessation of all science?

• World government?

• Software companies must accept more responsibility for defects in their products – Like the car companies raising

priority of safety in 1960s+

• Borrow features of safety culture from nuclear industry – NB still will be hard

– Most change programmes fail

Real-world problem

• Near-future software systems with bugs, design flaws, or security defects, with pervasive impact

• Climate change is already causing increasingly chaotic weather: floods, droughts…

• Experimental genetics creates fast-spreading pathogen

• Terrorists obtain new WMD

@dw2 Page 7

Eight reasons why change initiatives fail 1. Lack of a sufficient sense of urgency

– Perceived pain of change vs. Perceived pain of status-quo

2. Lack of an effective guiding coalition for the change – Aligned management – a team with the ability to make things happen

3. Lack of a clear appealing vision of the new method – Otherwise it may seem too vague – too many unanswered questions

4. Lack of communication for buy-in, keeping the change in people’s mind 5. Lack of empowerment of the people who can implement the change

– Lack of skills, wrong org structure, wrong incentives, bureaucracy…

6. Lack of celebration of small early wins – No momentum established

7. Lack of follow through – may need wave after wave of change to stick 8. Lack of embedding the change at the cultural level

– Otherwise management changes can unravel the change

From John Kotter, “Leading Change”

Over 70% of organisational

change projects fail

Pick the right battles

Not a “world gov’t” but an open lean alliance

Work out the details of positive scenarios

Create x-risk solutions in sprints (Agile)

Art!

Management!

@dw2 Page 8

Skills that need to be developed • Compelling narrative

– Inject urgency, and also positive hope – Learn from Hollywood, soap operas, box sets, memes

• Scenario development – Map out likely interactions: tech, social, political – Partner with futurists

From John Kotter, “Leading Change”

Over 70% of organisational

change projects fail

Pick the right battles

Not a “world gov’t” but an open lean alliance

Work out the details of positive scenarios

Create x-risk solutions in sprints (Agile)

Art!

Management!

@dw2 Page 9 http://valleywag.gawker.com/the-biggest-bullshit-job-titles-in-tech-1521536472

Fashion Evangelist at Tumblr

Digital Prophet at AOL

Entrepreneur-in-Residence at The Atlantic

Hacker-in-Residence at LinkedIn

Chief Curator at eBay

Chief Happiness Officer at Delivering Happiness

Anyone who self-describes as a

Futurist – which is barely even a word,

let alone a job.

@dw2 Page 10

Data driven, hypotheses formed & tested

Wishful thinking Futurology

Futurism

Astrology

Astronomy

Alchemy

Chemistry

A community of reflective, critical, evidence-based practitioners

@dw2 Page 11

The set of credible future

scenarios

Futurists…

Trend analysis

1. Identify scenarios

2. Assess scenarios

Brakes

Extrapolation

Interactions

3. Explore actions

Accelerators

Disruptions

Opportunities

Threats

@dw2 Page 12

Skills that need to be developed • Compelling narrative

– Inject urgency, and also positive hope – Learn from Hollywood, soap operas, box sets, memes

• Scenario development – Map out likely interactions: tech, social, political – Partner with futurists

• Political alliance building – Can’t insist on “purity”; Avoid burning bridges – Identify & prioritise “key influencers”

• Agile development – More than just a software technique

From John Kotter, “Leading Change”

Over 70% of organisational

change projects fail

Pick the right battles

Not a “world gov’t” but an open lean alliance

Work out the details of positive scenarios

Create x-risk solutions in sprints (Agile)

Art!

Management!

@dw2 Page 13

Inertia (Waterfall)

• Elaborate planning

• Painstaking execution

• Stick to the plan!

• Big Design Up Front

• Executives’ intuition

• Secrecy

• Execute a single scenario

• Typically disappoint market

Agile / Lean

• Experimentation

• Sprints deliver incrementally

• Be ready to pivot!

• Iterative Design

• Customer feedback

• Customer feedback

• Search for insight on scenarios

• Anticipate market delight

(early & often)

@dw2 Page 14

Drawback of non-Agile execution

What the market

would, in the end,

like to have

What the initial plan

estimated the

market would like

Time

in the (non-agile) case

when “the plan is king”

Delivery

Measure of

market

dissatisfaction

Don’t lock into

scenarios too

early

@dw2 Page 15

With Agile development (and regular customer feedback)

What the market

would, in the end,

like to have

What the initial plan

estimated the

market would like

Time

following agile

(adaptive) planning

Delivery

Measure of

market

delight

Improve your foresight

planning with regular

feedback from wider circle

@dw2 Page 16

Skills that need to be developed • Compelling narrative

– Inject urgency, and also positive hope – Learn from Hollywood, soap operas, box sets, memes

• Scenario development – Map out likely interactions: tech, social, political – Partner with futurists

• Political alliance building – Can’t insist on “purity”; Avoid burning bridges – Identify & prioritise “key influencers”

• Agile development – More than just a software technique

From John Kotter, “Leading Change”

Over 70% of organisational

change projects fail

Pick the right battles

Not a “world gov’t” but an open lean alliance

Work out the details of positive scenarios

Create x-risk solutions in sprints (Agile)

Art!

Management!

@dw2 Page 17

Paradigm shift

Thomas Kuhn – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradigm_shift

Duck? Rabbit?

@dw2 Page 18

Paradigm shift

Need higher level, integrative vision

@dw2 Page 19

The post-scarcity vision

• An abundance of clean energy (via greentech++)

• An abundance of healthy food (via synthetic biotech++)

• An abundance of material goods (via nanotech++)

• An abundance of affordable health (via rejuvenation biotech++)

• An abundance of all-round intelligence (via cognotech++)

• An abundance of time for creativity (via automation++)

• Supported by cooperative robots, value-aligned AI, better collabtech

• Underpinned by wise use of accelerating technology – Enabled by directing and utilising positive feedback cycles

Technoprogressive transhumanist vision

@dw2 Page 20

• An abundance of human flourishing and freedom – Underpinned by wise use of accelerating technology – Enabled by directing and utilising positive feedback cycles

1. Sustainable (not transient) – Resources come from renewable sources

2. An “extropia”, not a “utopia” – A journey (a progression)

3. A possibility, not an inevitability – Many things could go badly wrong en route – But the basis of the positive journey can be secured well before 2040… – Via improved foresight and corresponding action

The post-scarcity vision Technoprogressive transhumanist vision

New dark age

ahead?

@dw2 Page 21

8 recommendations to improve the public conversation

Lessons from 10 years of public meetups addressing existential risk

1. Prepare to “cross the chasm”: real-world problems, ready solutions 2. Focus – pick the right battles; target selected key influences 3. Engage story-tellers – partner with the best of Hollywood, Netflix… 4. Evolve credible scenarios (tech + human) – partner with futurists 5. Skilfully transcend paradigms – beyond “simply telling the truth” 6. Paint a compelling vision – technoprogressive transhumanism 7. Agile development – incrementally deliver updates to scenarios 8. Embrace politics – little can be achieved without smart alliances