Can Models Explain Power?

• Look at the three models.

• What are they trying to say?

• Can you write a theory for each one

which explains power; some nations

become wealthy and powerful whilst

others don’t.

Theories Explaining the Growth

of Superpowers

• Since the end of WW 2 in 1945, the most notable

changes in the geography of superpowers has been:

• The superpower struggle for superiority between US and

USSR

• The decline of the colonial superpowers such as the UK

• The emergence of growing economies which may in turn

become superpowers eg BRICS, MINTS, CIVETS,

TIGER CUBS, EU etc

Explaining changing superpower geographies –

there are several different theories

• Modernisation Theory (Rostow)

• Dependency Theory (A.G. Frank)

• World System’s Theory – Wallerstein

• Could also consider the value of

Mackinder’s Heartland Theory here

Rostow’s take off model – modernisation theory

• 1960s model emphasising the rise of power through the

creation of wealth and rise of capitalism

• linear economic growth –countries develop in 5 stages

• Argues that countries develop very slowly until certain 'pre-

conditions for take-off' are achieved (pg 142)

• Once achieved, industrialisation with growth in

manufacturing and increasing urbanisation would begin

and wealth would increase as trade expanded, poverty

was reduced and income increased creating more middle

class consumers. Cumulative causation and multiplier

effect are important here. (link to winners of global shift in

Year 12)

• applicable to Asian Tiger economies to some extent.

• Useful framework but is only descriptive – it doesn’t help

us understand how countries gain political and cultural

power

• Economic wealth and an industrial economy are, however,

precursors to military power so this helps explain this type

of power.

Can you see a

correlation

between the

rise of the NICs

and Rostow's

Modernisation

Theory?

Modernisation Theory

The Asian Tigers are examples of where this succeeded.How were they able to implement the preconditions for take off? - link your learning to what we have found out so far about the original Newly Industrialised Countries and how they 'took off'

Criticism of Rostow's Model

• In order to achieve 'pre-conditions for take

off', many countries borrowed from the

World Bank to invest in infrastructure.

• This led to debt and trade liberalisation

with unfavourable terms and conditions for

many developing countries which kept

them in a state of under-development

Are these countries ever likely

to become superpowers?

Dependency theory is based on the notion that there is a group of wealthy states (core) and satellite underdeveloped states (the periphery). Resources are extracted by the core from the periphery to sustain their economic growth and wealth. This is an on going process.

According to dependency theory, poverty and underdevelopment in the peripheral states is not the result of tradition or backwardness. It is necessary for the development of capitalism in the core states. In other words the very success of the core states is the cause of underdevelopment of the periphery. This is because of the coercive and exploitative manner by which the peripheral states have been integrated into the world economy.

Dependency theory sees the global economy is characterized by a structured relationship between the core states which, using political, military and economic power extract a surplus from the peripheral countries. Any attempt by the dependent nations to resist the influences of dependency often result in economic sanctions and/or military invasion and control.

Dependency Theory

• exploitation of the

South by the North

• simple core-

periphery (Marxist)

terms

• imperial/colonial

model

• little room for

development in the

periphery.

How do models help us to understand relationships

between superpowers?

1. Can developing countries (peripheral) ever become developed core

countries according to this model?

2. What is the critique of this model?

To summarise Dependency Theory:

• A dependency pattern

• The ‘south’ being dependent on the ‘north’ and essentially the developed

countries keep developing nations in a state of underdevelopment by

controlling terms of trade

• Low value commodity exports move to developed countries whilst high

value goods move to developing world- Prebisch-Singer Theory

• Developed world controls debt and refinancing of debt along with

Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAPs) – loans provided by the World

Bank and IMF intended to reduce poverty but often criticised as require

trade liberalisation policies and de-regulation at expense of the developing

country, high skilled out migration from developing world (brain-drain), aid

is often tied eg developed world promises military assistance. TNCs also

influence via patent royalties which limits innovation in the periphery. This

is very similar to colonial rule and is similar to neo-colonial rule which is

more subtle but the same result

• Exception: over simplistic – some countries have moved out of

dependency eg Japan, NICs, BRICS and power has shifted in cycles

eg USSR and UK so too simplistic to say it is static

• BUT some may argue these would not have emerged without

the economic aid and political support from the USA

Wallerstein’s World Systems Theory 1974

• North-South pattern began to break down in the 1980s because of:

• Rise of the Asian Tiger economies that broke free from poverty and

underdevelopment suggesting the world is more complex than a

superpower core and underdeveloped periphery relationship

• Wallerstein’s ideas are partly related to the economic theory of

Supercycles (Kondratiev waves) accounting for cycles of power and

economic power

• Wallerstein’s World Systems Theory views the world as divided into

3, rather than 2:

• 1. Core regions – OECD countries and the USA and EU superpowers

• 2 Semi-periphery regions – NICs of Latin America and Asia and

emrging powers of China and India

• 3. Periphery regions – rest of developing world

Rise and fall of modern

empires- supports Wallerstein

“In economic terms we already live in a bi-polar world. Between

them the US and China today control over a third of world output

(on a PPP basis)."

• Napoleon Bonaparte:

"Let China sleep, for

when she awakes,

she will shake the

world."

• "America’s global economic

dominance has been

declining since 1998, well

before the Global Financial

Crisis. A large part of this

decline has actually had little

to do with the actions of the

US but rather with the

unravelling of a century’s

long economic anomaly.

China has begun to return to

the position in the global

economy it occupied for

millennia before the

industrial revolution."

Views which support

Wallerstein

World Systems Theory

• Less a theory than a world view

• core, periphery and semi-periphery

• BRICs / NICs have a ‘chance’ of further growth

this model is less static

• BRICs (China) exploit the periphery’s resources

i.e. Africa:

1. Page 143/144 supporting evidence of

Wallerstien's world systems theory

Who are the exceptions?

• Which countries have adopted Rostow’s model and broken the dependency theory?

• The Asian Tigers

• Why?• USA funding! Both economic support and aid.

• Why did they do this? – think back to how superpowers can exert and extend their influence.

• Strong capitalist economies in Asia would contain Communist China.

India and China

• Why have their economies recently risen?

• Two conflicting arguments:– Wallerstein argues Europe initiated industrial

capitalism.

– The rise of I and C another stage in the growth and spread of the global economy.

– A. G Frank argues it’s a shift back to an older world order where I and C were powerful economic forces.

– The global system was replaced for 500yrs by European hegemony.

– European powers are the first NICs.

• Why should the global centre of economic gravity shift from east to west and back again?

Are there other models?

• Mackinder’s Heartland Theory – how could

you incorporate this into an answer

explaining the rise of superpowers?

Summary of Superpower theory • There are several theories which help

explain the rise and pattern of superpowers

• WW Rostow’s ‘Take Off’ model

(modernisation theory) is often used to

illustrate how countries move from relative

underdevelopment, to a state of high mass

consumption

• Not all countries have managed to

industrialise and develop

• AG Frank’s Dependency Theory argues

that this is because the developed

countries (superpowers and emerging

powers) maintain the developing world in a

‘state of underdevelopment’, draining it of:

Human capital (‘brain drain’)

Resources (minerals, ores, food)

• This helps maintain the developed world’s

lifestyle, cheaply

• The BRICs, and NICs, have

developed in recent decades

• This suggests some countries

have broken free from

dependency and developed in

the way Rostow’s model

suggests

• Immanuel Wallerstein’s World

Systems Theory seeks to model

this ‘three sided world’:

• Wallerstein’s ideas are partly

related to the economic theory of

Supercycles (Kondratiev waves –

see table)

• These suggest economic growth

passes through phases based on

key new technologies

• These new technologies bring

growth to particular geographical

regions

Date and Cycle Technology Location

1770-1850 Industrial

Revolution

Cotton, steam engines UK

1850-1920 Industrialization Rail, steam ships, iron

and steel,

Increased

involvement of

Europe and USA

1920-1945 Motorization Petrochemicals, cars,

electricity

Increasing

dominance of the

USA

1945– 1990 Cold war era White goods, consumer

goods

Rise of Japan and

Asian Tigers

1990 onwards Internet, wireless,

biotechnology

Shifts in production

toward India and

China

2020 onwards? ???? Asia?

June 2011 unit 3

b. Explain how theories such as

Dependency Theory and World

Systems Theory can contribute to an

understanding of changing patterns of

global power (15)