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Lee Frelich's powerpoint for the "Shifting Seasons: Great Lakes Forest, Industry, Products, and Resources Summit"
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Effects of climate change, deer and invasive species on forests
Lee E. Frelich, Director, The University of Minnesota Center for Forest Ecology
Change in summer (JJA) temperatureChange in summer (JJA) temperature
Higher Emissions
Lower Emissions
Slide: Don Wuebbles
2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099
Projected Change in Precipitation: 2081-2099
Relative to 1960-1990
NOTE: Scale Reversed
Midwest: Increasing winter and spring precipitation, with drier summers
More frequent and intense periods of heavy rainfall
Slide: Don Wuebbles
White pine on its way to better climatic zone, Ontario (upper) and a cold tree wearing a sweater (lower).
Peter Aplin
How do trees respond to climate change?
Fossil pollen evidence suggests that trees respond to gradual climate change by migration and to sudden and large climate shifts by dying
Calendar years before present10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
Hemlock and oak decline 5,000 ybp due to drought and insects. From Foster et al. 2006. Ecology 87: 2959-2966
John Kneurr
Fossil needles (upper row), modern needles (second row), and hemlock looper parts (fossil and modern). From Bhiry and Filion (1996) Quat Res 45: 312-320.
Pagami creek fire-NASA
Pagami Creek Fire, Sept 12, 2011Lake Kawishiwi, Photos: PJ Sikorski
Brian Sturtevant-USDA Forest Service
July 1995 derecho series
From: R.H. Johns and J.S. Evans: www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos
More disturbance from wind and fire in a warmer climate
Minneapolis Star tribune
Before and after the 1999 blowdownin the Boundary Waters, northern MN
Wind does selective weeding of the forest
Divergence of forest composition after wind versus wind/fire combination BWCAW case study
Tornado reports per decade. Paul Huttner, MPR.
Wind + Fire = majortransformation of the forestPhotos: Dave Hansen
Native insects play a major role in forest changeBenign native insects can have outbreaks in a warmer climate.For example, mountain pine beetle in British Columbia—a native insect that caused massive tree mortality over 30 million acres of lodgepole pine forest, and could threaten jack pinein MN
Dai, 2010, Drought under global warming, Climate Change DOI: 10.1002/wcc.81
Comparing the 2060s with current
More drought = trees under stress and forest dieback
Photo: Dave Hansen
Impacts of deer grazing reinforcing climate changeSylvania Wilderness maple and hemlock forest in 1990
Sylvania in 2006, after the deer have eatenPictures from Salk, Frelich, Montgomery, Calcote, and Ferrari, preliminary acceptance in Forest Ecology and Management
Global warming orGlobal worming?
Earthworms are ecosystem engineers that can alter the structure of soil, and change the H2O, N and P cycles, Cdynamics and seedbed characteristics on a regional scale
Earthworm-free site. Photo: Paul Ojanen
Heavily earthworm infested sites without lawn. Photo: Paul Ojanen (left), Dave Hansen (right)
Earthworms warm the soil by removing insulating O horizon,compact the soil, cause more runoff, create lower avail-ability of N and P, lower the species richness of native plantsand facilitate invasive plants
Seed emergence experimentwith endogeic and anecicearthworms both present: Graminoids are favored
Lawn of sedge created by earthworm and deerPhoto: Paul Ojanen
Stage 2, Dendrobaena only
Stage 3, + Aporrectodea ssp.and L. rubellus
Stage 4, + L. terrestris
Photos: J. Schlaghamersky
Invasive plants that may be facilitated by earthworm invasion:Buckthorn (common and glossy)Garlic mustardTatarian honeysuckleBlack swallowwort (Cynanchum)Japanese barberryHemp nettle (Galeopsis tetrahit)Veronica ssp.Stiltgrass (Microstegium)
14 Sapling growth study sites
Fisichelli study of sapling success and growth over a 4 degree F temperature gradient in mixed boreal-northern hardwood forests
Temperate Mixed Boreal
Overstory Type
Local Scale: 3 overstory neighborhood types
>67% Temperate overstory tree rel. abundance
33-67% Temperate overstory tree rel. abundance
<33% Temperate overstory tree rel. abundance
Sugar maple
Red maple
Fir/Spruce
Species Regeneration Response to: Temp Precip pH Deer Litter Conspecific Depth Overstory
0
0/-0
0/-
Methods: Sizing Up the Competition; Growth Measurements
Radial Growth Height Growth
Distance between terminal bud scars
‘09‘08‘07
5 species
Balsam fir(Abies balsamea)
White spruce(Picea glauca)
Red maple(Acer rubrum)
Sugar maple(Acer saccharum)
Red oak(Quercus rubra)
4
5
7
10
15
17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.0
Summer Temperature (°C)
He
igh
t gro
wth
(cm
yr1
)
4
5
7
10
15
17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.0
Summer Temperature (°C)
He
igh
t gro
wth
(cm
yr1
)
(a) low browse pressure
(b) high browse pressure
Results: Temperate sapling relative performance ‘cooled’ by deer
A. balsameaP. glaucaA. rubrumA. saccharumQ. rubra
A. balsameaP. glaucaA. rubrumA. saccharumQ. rubra
A. balsameaP. glaucaA. rubrumA. saccharumQ. rubra
A. balsameaP. glaucaA. rubrumA. saccharumQ. rubra
A. balsameaP. glaucaA. rubrumA. saccharumQ. rubra
Abies balsamea
Picea glauca
Acer rubrum
Acer saccharum
Quercus rubra
Mean summer temperature oC
Sugar maple versus spruce in the temperate-boreal ecotone
Temp change
Deer, moose, earthworms
Temperature pushing harder than opposing forces
BorealTemperate
Temperate forest tree species are now invading boreal stands,but this process is slowed by deer in some areas. For now, themixed forest zone is becoming broader.
Serial correlation prevented maple from replacing spruce forest on sand,but not silty clay loam, for a 2xCO2 scenario. Cohen and pastor 1991.
With serialcorrelation
Silty clay loam
Sand
Sugar maple versus oak in in the temperate zone
Temperature change, earthworms
Deer
No net direction???
Expect mesic forest types such as northern hardwoods to contract their niche
Loamy sandLoam Silt loam
Ecological blueprints for a warmer climateA forest of American basswood, elms, Kentucky coffeetree, hackberry, and bur oak could be the future for central and northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan
Mark Stennes
If the climate trends towards a Savanna climate on shallow soils:•Try for the best savanna possible (i.e. native species, not buckthorn).
•Resources for assisted migration and seed amplificationwould be necessary
The Prairie Enthusiasts
Molly McGovern
Buckthorn on rocks in northern MNPhotos: Paul Ojanen
Warmer climate, Longer growing season
More frequent and longer
droughts
Warmer and drier soil
Lower soil nutrient status
Exotic earthworms
spread faster
More deer
More fires
More wind
storms
Pests and diseases spread faster
N deposition
CO2 fertilization
Kill seedlingsand preventreproduction
Kill adult treesand lack of replacement
Savannification
Multiple impacts of climate change at the prairie-forest border. Frelich and Reich, 2010 Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment
Disturbance severityHighLow
Late successionaldominance
Low
High
Clearcut or stand leveling wind
Ecosystemunder stressfrom climate
Ecosystem well adapted to climate
Thresholds for disturbance severity necessary to change forest composition are lower when a forest is under stress
What does this all mean?
Global warming is about the effects of droughts, storms, fires, bugs, worms and deer on the forest
These factors will reinforce the impacts of changing temperature and lead to more divergence among soil types
These factors will make abrupt change after disturbance more likely
Future forests and savannas that replace the current forests will have novel plant composition due to different filters on which species are successful
Layne Kennedy
Lee Frelich and clones at work during Ham Lake Fire, Seagull Lake, May 6, 2007
Questions?