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Learning Scenarios

Learning Scenarios

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These are the slides used by Willem Manders and Hans de Zwart to help facilitate a workshop at Online Educa 2011 in which learning scenarios were developed.

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Page 1: Learning Scenarios

Learning Scenarios

Page 2: Learning Scenarios

Willem Manders

Hans de Zwart

Laura Overton

Charles Jennings

David Mallon

Page 3: Learning Scenarios

“Scenarios are stories about the future, but their purpose is to make better decisions in the present”

Page 4: Learning Scenarios

"When a meeting, or part thereof, is held under the Chatham House Rule, participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed"

Page 5: Learning Scenarios

http://learningscenarios.org

Page 6: Learning Scenarios

@lrnscen #lrnscen

Page 7: Learning Scenarios

Introduction to scenarios

Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties

Create mini-scenarios

Consolidate scenarios

Signs and signals

Review learningchallenges and strategy

Today (from 10:00 – 13:00)Workshop participants

Page 8: Learning Scenarios

Introduction to scenarios

Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties

Create mini-scenarios

Consolidate scenarios

Signs and signals

Review learningchallenges and strategy

This afternoonWillem, Hans and interested others

Page 9: Learning Scenarios

Introduction to scenarios

Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties

Create mini-scenarios

Consolidate scenarios

Signs and signals

Review learningchallenges and strategy

During the conferenceAll Business Educa participants

Page 10: Learning Scenarios

Introduction to scenarios

Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties

Create mini-scenarios

Consolidate scenarios

Signs and signals

Review learningchallenges and strategy

After the conferenceEverybody individually + teleconference

Page 11: Learning Scenarios

Introduction to scenarios

Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties

Create mini-scenarios

Consolidate scenarios

Signs and signals

Review learningchallenges and strategy

Page 12: Learning Scenarios

Identifying driving forces

adapted from Kees van der Heijden

Page 13: Learning Scenarios

The Systems Iceberg

(adapted from Peter Senge)

Page 14: Learning Scenarios

News events

Patterns of systembehaviour (Trends)

Deep system structure(Driving Forces)

Page 15: Learning Scenarios

Introduction to scenarios

Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties

Create mini-scenarios

Consolidate scenarios

Signs and signals

Review learningchallenges and strategy

Page 16: Learning Scenarios

Uncertainties...

Page 17: Learning Scenarios

In 60 minutes:

Time horizon: 5 – 10 years out (2015-2020)

1. Brainstorm key trends and uncertainties

Make sure to capture extreme outcomes:

2. Cluster, prioritise and eliminate duplicates

3. Report back to the whole group

Page 18: Learning Scenarios

Introduction to scenarios

Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties

Create mini-scenarios

Consolidate scenarios

Signs and signals

Review learningchallenges and strategy

Page 19: Learning Scenarios

In 60 minutes:

1. Put two key independent uncertainties in a matrix

2. Describe scenario characteristics for each quadrant

3. Create a name for each quadrant

4. Report back to the whole group

Page 20: Learning Scenarios

What is next?

Page 21: Learning Scenarios

We will consolidate the scenarios and present them tomorrow

Page 22: Learning Scenarios

We need your help!

Page 23: Learning Scenarios

Our minimum requirements:

1. A newspaper headline for 2020

2. Three signals from the conference

that relate to a particular scenario

3. Reflection on how this impacts your strategy

Page 24: Learning Scenarios

Touch base Friday afternoon...

Touch (virtual) base in two months?

Page 25: Learning Scenarios

Sunset in SarasotaBy Flickr user livingonimpulseLicensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic (CC BY 2.0) license

Chatham house© 2011 Google

Past and Future© Alex Slobodkin (licensed via istockphoto)

Tip of the iceberg© paul kline (licensed via istockphoto)

Decision making© mattjeacock (licensed via istockphoto)

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