Look – See – Wonder What are these maps telling you?

Changing patterns of power over time

How do Superpowers maintain their power and how have they changed over time?

Learning Objectives:

• To know the definitions of superpowers, emerging and regional powers

• To be able to explain and justify criteria for becoming a superpower

• To understand the importance of maintaining power over time; spectrum of ‘hard’ to ‘soft’ power

How superpowers gain and maintain power: ‘Hard’ and ‘Soft Power’

• Combination of both ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ power is essential to extending their global influence and maintaining their power – something the Harvard political scientist, Joseph Nye calls ‘Smart Power’

• These mechanisms of maintaining power sit on a spectrum from ‘hard’ to ‘soft’ power, and vary in their effectiveness

• Soft Power – term coined by Nye in 1990 refers to power of persuasion; making other countries follow by making policies attractive and appealing. Can include cultural attractiveness of a country eg through arts, music, sport, culture eg BBC, diplomacy egembassies around the world, modelling of legal systems around the world as seen as best practice, TNCs exposure in different countries. Arguably this is harder to gain as it is beyond the control of the government – relies instead on TNCs, film and media, education systems etc which are institutions outside of government control

• Hard Power – defined as power through force or coercion and is likely to involve military power, the threat of it or economic sanctions. For example, Britain's expansionist policy in the imperial era would be considered ‘hard’ power, as would military actions taken in Iraq and Afghanistan. Economic sanctions such as those taken against Iran and North Korea to try to prevent it from developing its military nuclear capability would also be an example of ‘hard’ power

Tools of Power and Influence Where would you place those discussed last lesson on the ‘spectrum’ or

‘continuum of power’?

*Economic *Military *Cultural *Demography

*Land area and location *Resources *Political

Hard Power Soft Power

The Power Spectrum

• Page 134 edexcel text book.

Soft Power 30 Global Index

UK

USA

China rising and just above Russia

A Closer Look – some smaller countries punch way above their weight in these rankings.

Softpower 30 analysis report

Hard v Soft Power • Generally believed hard power has become less important than soft

power over time

• Historically, hard power in terms of military force was crucial to superpower status

• During the colonial and imperial era from 1600 to 1950, powerful countries like the UK, France, Netherlands etc conquered and controlled foreign territories by military force.

• This hard power approach was influenced by early geo-strategic thinking : Mackinder’s ‘Heartland’ Geo-Strategic Location Theory

Mackinder’s ‘Heartland’ Geo-Strategic Location Theory 1904• British geographer who argued that whoever controlled Europe and Asia

(the world’s biggest landmass) would control the world. • Argued this was the key geo- strategic location in the world because

control over this commanded a huge portion of the world’s physical and human resources.

• He identified a ‘heartland’ called the ‘world island’ from eastern Europe into Russia, at the centre of which was a ‘pivot’.

• Who ever ruled the most strategic part of Europe, commanded the heartland

• Who ever ruled the heartland would command the world island• Whoever commanded the world island would rule the world. • Russia should be the world’s global power but Mackinder believed it had

two main disadvantages – its many (14 neighbouring countries) borders meaning it could be attacked from many directions and much of its coast is frozen in winter meaning it has few trading /military ports

Quickly Draw "MacKinder’s Heartland Theory"

• Does this link to MacKinder’s Heartland Theory? If so, how?

Do you agree with MacKinder? Was control of land most important in gaining power?

Read the following slides/handouts and using your own ideas, compose a case to argue your viewpoint.

Key Term: Geo-Strategic Policies

• Policies that attempt to meet the global and regional policy aim of a country by combining diplomacy with the movement and positioning of military assets.

The Relevance of MacKinder's Heartland Theory

• Read the following statements and decide if they prove MacKinder'stheory or not. Decide which is the strongest piece of supporting evidence for his theory.

• How relevant do you think MacKinder's theory today? Do you have evidence to back up your argument?

Relevance of Mackinder’s Heartland Theory

• The theory was influential as it led to policies of ‘containment’ – geopolitical strategies to stop the expansion of an enemy.

• Post Second World War – NATO allies attempted to contain the USSR from expanding into western and southern Europe:

Truman Doctrine (ideas)

• Containment – the USA’s policy to stop Communism from spreading. This was the opposite of the policy of isolationism. President Truman offered help to any country that was under military threat, either from within or outside the country, in the hope that this would stop Communism from spreading.

• Marshall Aid -The Secretary of State in the US, George C Marshall, offered $13 billion in aid to the countries that were trying to reconstruct after the war. Through this, it was possible to implement Truman's containment policy. America believed that the countries of Europe would be more likely to come under the influence of Communism if the people were poor. Stalin accused the USA of trying to dominate the countries of Eastern Europe and so he refused to allow Soviet countries to accept aid.

• The USA’s aid and technology transfer to countries like Singapore prompting them to become the world’s first NICs (Asian Tigers) was arguably to stop the spread of Communism from North Korea and China

Has Mackinder’s Theory stood the test of time?

• In the 21st Century it is argued that soft power and diplomacy is more important – partly blamed for China still lagging behind. Mackinder’s theory was based more simply on land area and so was purely geographical in its outlook.

• Mackinder also believed that the ‘heartland’ could shift geographically especially as a result of sea-power. This allowed the UK to dominate everywhere via its Navy during its colonial and industrial revolution period

• Despite diplomacy around the world, hard power does play a role even today:

• Gulf War (1990-91), invasion of Iraq (2003) and American-led invasion of Afghanistan (2001-2014) all involved hard power to achieve aims of force

• Russia annexed Crimea in Ukraine in 2013 followed by economic sanctions on Russia by the USA and EU in response are all egs of hard power.

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How Have Patterns of Power Changed Over Time?

Changing patterns of power have led to a ...

• uni-polar, bi-polar or multi-polar world.

• The existence of different numbers of superpowers and the relationships between them can affect geopolitical stability and the prospects of peace and war.

Changing patterns of power over time- which type of pattern power applies to each map?

What is going on here?

http://theconversation.com/british-empires-forgotten-propaganda-tool-for-primitive-peoples-mobile-cinema-64275

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Is this hard or soft power?

How did it help to

'maintain' power?

1. Uni-polar worldOne that is dominated by one superpower, eg the British Empire or the US-dominated world of today

2. Bi-polar WorldOne in which two superpowers, with opposing ideologies eg Capitalism v Communism, vie for power eg the USA and USSR during the Cold War

3. Multi-polar worldMore complex; many superpowers and emerging powers compete for power in different regions – the future?

Recap

1. The Uni – Polar World - The British Empire upto 1920

• By 1920 ruled over 20% of the world’s population and 25% of its land area (reflects Mackinder’s theory of land being crucial in gaining power)

• Royal Navy facilitated this and dominated world’s oceans protecting colonies and trade routes especially at ‘choke points’ eg Suez Canal, Straits of Malacca. Sea-power 'shifting' the heartland possibly?

Key Terms• Imperialism – a relationship of political, economic or cultural control

between geographical areas

• Colonialism – the direct political rule of a nation by another. Usually refers to European powers between 1600 and 1900. Ruled by force with almost no power or influence given to the original population

• Colonization – the physical settling of people from a colonial power within their colony.

• Acculturation – A process of cultural change that takes place when two different cultures meet and interact; it includes the transfer of a dominant culture’s ideas onto a subordinate culture eg cricket, drinking tea , English language introduced by the British in India

Watch this and make notes on the British Empire as uni-polar superpower use pg 136 to help

Mercantilist Phase of Power 1600- 1850

Imperial Phase of Power 1850 – 1945

Colonialism in India – example of direct control (hard power) followed byin-direct control softer cultural power

• British military personnel, civil servants and entrepreneurs migrated to India to run the Raj popular tv series - Indian Summers depicts this

• Symbols of imperial power demonstrated Britain’s imperial wealth and technical prowess eg residence of governor-general in Delhi and the Howrah Bridge in Kolkata

• Acculturation – British traditions of cricket, tea and English language introduced

• Strict social order introduced differentiating between white British and Indian population

• India was modernised – 61000km of railways by 1920

allowed for transportation of troops to quash rebellions

and of goods to ports for export to Britain

The End of Empire and the Uni-Polar World British Empire eventually collapsed and it lost its superpower status caused by:

• Pressure for greater independence

• Rising power of the USA, Germany and Russia (their economies and military grew)

• 1946 – Trade had been decimated during the war. Britain borrowed $3.5 billion from the USA to avoid bankruptcy – UK could no longer afford its empire and focused instead on restructuring and rebuilding after war. NB War was key to fall of Britain’s power

• Emerging powers gradually begin to obtain the technology and ideas which originated in the imperial superpower through trade/exchange/copying/espionage – USA overtook UK economically by 1880s. Meanwhile the Russian Revolution of 1917 created a huge state -former USSR or Soviet Union – which rapidly industrialised and took over as the second largest economy by 1941

• By 1945 a bipolar world emerged: a two-sided world with the USA and the USSR becoming global powers.

Homework Question

Assess the relative importance of ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ power in the UK's global dominance during the Empire period. 12 marks

Extra: Listen to this for homework

TED Talk: Joseph Nye talks about shifts in power