Who are these

people?

Who are these

people?

Narendra Modi – India’s Prime Minister

Vladimir Putin – Russia’s President

Michael Temer – Brazil’s President

Xi Jinping- China’s President

Angela Merkel – Germany’s Chancellor and symbolic head of EU

What are you thinking about these people? What questions do you have?

A2 GCE GeographyArea of Study 4: Human Systems and Geopolitics

Topic 7: Superpowers

Overview of Area of Study 4: Human Systems and Geopolitics

• Area of study 4 is examined on Paper 2 which is worth 30% of the marks at A Level. Paper 2 is marked out of 105 and examines you on Areas of study 2 (Dynamic Places – globalisation and regeneration) and 4.

• All students are required to study Topic 7: Superpowers and Topic 8: Global Development and Connections, from which students study either Topic 8A: Health, Human Rights and Intervention, or Topic 8B: Migration, Identity and Sovereignty.

What is this unit about?

• What are superpowers and how have they changed over time?

• What are the impacts of superpowers on the

global economy, political systems and environment?

• What spheres of influence are contested by superpowers and what are the implications of this?

What are ‘Superpowers’ and how have they changed over time?

Learning Objectives:

• To know the definitions of superpowers, emerging and regional powers

• To be able to explain and justify criteria for becoming a superpower

• To understand the importance of maintaining power over time; spectrum of ‘hard’ to ‘soft’ power

Things to remember before we start…

• Power – both economic and political – is not evenly distributed around the world

• Some nations and people have a disproportionate influence over decision making (this may be regional or global)

• Other nations and people have very limited influence

• Some nations gain power over time, whilst others lose it- there is a continuously changing ‘spectrum’ of power

• By consequence, the geography of power has changed over time and continues to change

How might you continue the curves on this graph? Why?

Can you spot the difference?

Key Definitions

Defining ‘Superpower’

• The term was first used in the 1940s at the time of the Second World War to refer to the 3 dominant world powers at that time: the USA, the USSR and the British empire.

• It refers to a “nation with the ability to project its power and influence anywhere in the world and be a dominant global force.”

• This demands huge resources so true superpowers are rare.

The Importance of Global Influence

• Superpowers must have global reach and influence and the ability to affect world affairs; this is stressed in Professor Paul Dukes (an academic historian who has written much on Superpowers) –

• A superpower is a nation that can ‘conduct a global strategy including the possibility of destroying the world; to command vast economic potential and influence; and to present a universal ideology’

Hyperpowers

• In some cases, a Superpower that stands out way above all other countries is called a ‘hyperpower’ or ‘hegemon’:

‘An unchallenged superpower that is dominant in all aspects of power (political, economic, cultural, military); egs include the USA from 1990 to 2010 and Britain from 1850 to 1910.’

• Emerging SuperpowersRefers to nations whose economic , military and

political influence is already large and growing

• Regional PowersThese are smaller. They influence other countries

at a continental scale

Superpower or not?

How would you classify these countries?

Indonesia Turkey South Africa Mexico Nigeria

Brazil Mexico Russia India China Mongolia UK Australia

Iceland Kenya USA France

Superpower Emerging Power

Regional Power

Former Superpower

Who is a superpower?

How would you rank these countries?

Indonesia Turkey South Africa Mexico Nigeria

Brazil Mexico Russia India China Mongolia UK Australia

Iceland Kenya Germany USA France

Superpower Emerging Power

Regional Power

Former Superpower

USA ChinaRussiaBrazil India

UK & Germany in EuropeSouth Africa in Africa

UK

The Power Spectrum Understanding that Power may be gained or lost

over time

Some extra reading on changing patterns of power ….

• The Telegraph: America - Your days as a world superpower are numbered

• BBC: Does the UK remain a world power?

If you were to design a superpower nation, what characteristics would it have?

Defining Superpower Status

The Pillars of Power

Economic Power•Forms the ‘base’ of the temple as arguably it is the most fundamental and a strong economy gives the foundation for spending on a powerful military, the ability to exploit or buy in natural resources or develop human ones through education (16 of the top universities in the world are in the USA). •Powerful currencies – 80% of all financial transactions and 87% of all foreign currency market transactions are in US$•Great influence/control over global trade and terms of trade –determine economic policies by joining political and economic organisations like the G20 or trading blocs eg EU which influences trade •Home to many TNCs who may export ‘soft power’ and spread global influence eg McDonalds and Disney and who can also control foreign governments eg dictating wage costs, environmental policy etc. •Economic power means that a country can buy debt from another country eg China has bought debt from USA especially since the Global Financial Crisis, this gives China global influence but also means the USA remains able to buy goods from China which maintains a healthy trading surplus for China •Ability to give aid – in return the country can set conditions eg be allowed to locate military bases in the recipient country – this widens military reach and creates a dependency between the countries so aid-recipient countries become allied with the superpower.

• USA dominates in innovation, intellectual property and patents – this maintains power as other countries are prevented from similar innovation which holds back their economies. Although disputed, a Russian economist called Kondratiev argued that innovation was key to cycles of economic growth and prosperity as seen below:

• World Bank, World Trade Organisation and International Monetary Fund – these are all tools by which superpowers spread their global influence.

World’s 10 largest economies in 2015 (% of global GDP produced by each country)

Rank Country % of global GDP produced

1 USA 22.4%

2 China 13.4%

3 Japan 6.2%

4 Germany 4.9%

5 UK 3.9%

6 France 3.7%

7 Brazil 2.9%

8 Italy 2.8%

9 Russia 2.64%

10 India 2.63%

Between the 10 they earn 65% of global GDP and then they spend it – they have large consumer markets. The EU and USA produce over 40% of the world’s GDP between them!

Military Power•The threat of military action may be seen as a powerful bargaining chip - consider the USA and North Korea over the Summer holiday! •Military force can be used to achieve geopolitical goals – USA’s invasion of Iraq was designed to spread its ideology of ‘Western values’ of free speech, individual freedom, free market economics and consumerism by removing Saddam Hussain as a dictator •Superpowers will spend much on military hardware – The USA’s military spending is up to 5 times that of China’s accounting for 37% of global military spending. China has increased its spending by 10 times over last 5 years

•The type of weapon and up-to-date technology is important eg combat drones –the USA has 7000 allowing it to extend its military reach without endangering its military personnel; aircraft carriers allowing global reach, missiles, fighter jets – the USA’s Martin F-22 Raptor is the only 5 th generation fighter jet in the world and nuclear weapons ( only Russia, USA, China, India, Israel, France, North Korea, Pakistan and the United Kingdom have nuclear weapons)•Military personnel is also important which may be influenced by population size – China has largest army in the world with 2.3 million in total. Espionage and institutions like MI6 and CIA are also important.

• Military reach – technology allows weapons to be deployed globally or aircraft carriers provide temporary bases in foreign waters. This is also achieved by providing aid in return for locating military bases overseas allowing them to influence events globally. The USA has most of these. During the cold war the USA and USSR positioned military bases in their spheres of influence to control areas – the USA was especially trying to ‘contain’ the spread of Communism in Eastern Europe and later in SE Asia from China and North Korea. The Cuban Missile Crisis stemmed from the USSR building nuclear missiles in Cuba, only 90miles from the USA’s coast! In recent times, more bases have been located in the Middle East.

• Proxy Wars - A proxy war is two opposing countries avoiding direct war, and instead supporting combatants that serve their interests and affect the other country’s interests and sometimes territories. For example, the United States has been supporting the Syrian rebels (Opposition), whilst Russia has been supporting the Syrian government led by Bashar al-Assad. Here the Syrian rebels are a proxy for the United States, and the Syrian government a proxy for Russia.

• Blue Water Navy – These are arguably essential for global reach and influence – it consists of large, ocean-going ships that can venture into open ocean rather than a green-water navy that can only patrol littoral waters (coastline). These ships can spread influence, engage in combat and importantly, protect trade routes around the world. China's militarisation

• China’s Military Reach (insert map page 105 digby book)

China has expanded its military and its reach but main focus has been on security of South China Sea where it wants to dominate the sea to the first island chain which it sees as its sphere of influence. This has caused conflict over the areas such as the Spratly Islands. Suggested that protecting trade but also resources of oil and gas are the causes of this.

Political •Greater political influence if part of an international political organisation.

•Make key decisions about World economy, conflicts and environmental issues •Power is held by a small number of key players in these intergovernmental organisations•Often created by superpowers post war as a way to promote cooperation and reduce conflict•Critics say created by superpowers for superpowers and so maintain influence•OECD – Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development established in 1960 with 20 most developed countries in the world as its co-founders. Aim to promote global development. Today there are 35 members. •G8 – until recently, the most influential group – 8 OECD countries with largest economies in the world (France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Russia invited later as a major nuclear power with many resources)•G20 – G8 members plus 12 others to reflect shift east in economic power. It includes all of the BRICS and the EU as a single entity. Major economic decision making body especially in a more globalised world•G2 – some people speak of this today – USA and China

• United Nations and UN Security Council- formed in 1945 after World War 2 to promote peace. Membership of the UN Security Council is often seen as ultimate status in military strength. There are 5 permanent members (USA, UK, Russia, China and France) who approve military action when justified in conflicts. Membership is based on those considered to be victors after the war but as other countries have grown economically an din military status, eg India, Pakistan and Israel, membership has been contentious.

• International Monetary Fund and World Bank – USA and EU major members. Provided money for rebuilding post war Europe and stop the spread of Communism into Easter Europe. Have also provided loans for major infrastructure eg airports and refinanced debt for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs). However, in return they have demanded that those poor countries open up for trade (arguably benefitting the superpowers as they can trade cheaply with these countries and have bigger markets for their own manufactured goods) and also repay debts which has taken money away from health and education keeping other countries in a state of under-development whilst maintaining power for the superpower states.

Resources•Countries with resources necessary for economic development should hold significant power

e.g. Russia – gas; Middle East – oil•Possession of key resources gives some leverage over others eg OPEC countries can set global oil prices•Resources can be human too eg skilled, educated labour or even demographic weight ie large, cheap workforce(However, countries without these often have the economic power to buy in resources or use alternatives)•However, countries with significant resources are not necessarily powerful because:

– Exporting raw materials adds little valuee.g. Australia has huge reserves of iron ore but exports most (to China) so does not benefit from the added value of manufacturing these

– Many countries’ resources are actually managed by TNCs e.g. BP and Shell have developed Nigeria’s oilfields so the country gets little benefit or influence

– Over-reliance on one resource eg Russia’s reliance on natural gas and oil can cause problems when prices are low.

Land Area and Geographical Position •Important as determines the land area over which a country has potential influence; larger countries usually have greater resources and influence.•Russia is possibly the best example of this:

Land area Time zones covered

Land neighbours that it potentially influences

Influence

17 million square km

11 14 Influence includes language, media, news coverage through to military invasion eg Crimea in the Ukraine and control of gas prices and supply. Influence varies as countries are different – some European, some Asian, some democratic, some communist eg China

Demographic•Large populations provide sufficient labour force to generate economic growth – the more people, the cheaper that labour is attracting FDI; this often means less need for the latest technology. China is facing a slow down partly because of its ageing population following the One Child Policy – labour costs in china are rising making it less competitive for manufacturing. •Also provide large consumer markets – spurs economic growth further. The combined EU population is over 500 million which provides a bigger consumer market watch this

•Allow for larger military

•However, countries can attract foreign migrants to fill shortages eg USA and Singapore is a country with a population only half that of London’s but it is a major economic power, attracting FDI and a key player in the Southeast Asian region.

Cultural Power•Often termed ‘soft’ power and responsible for maintain influence around the world•How appealing is a nation’s way of life, values and ideology are to others •Exercised through arts, music, film, fashion, food, sport, major events eg Olympics•‘Americanisation’ – eg spread of McDonalds, Disney via globalisation•China is often said to be held back by the lack of this along with a lack of political power

Measuring Superpower Status

1. In your pairs, rank order the measures or pillars of power. Be ready to justify your answer.

2. Walk around the room and look at other rank orders – do you agree? Move their cards as you think fit.

3. Why are single measures unlikely to be a good indicator of superpower status?

4. What do you understand by an ‘index of power’?

5. What is the purpose of ‘scaling’ some rank scores?

6. What would you now include in your own Superpower Index?

7. Devise a simple global power index. Weight this index, in which you decide which criteria are more important in creating a true index of power. Decide which of the following countries or groups deserves the title of ‘superpower’ : USA, (EU), Russia, China, Brazil, UK, France, Germany, Japan and one you think should be in this list.

Example

Country Land area Rank (scaled x 3)

Number of bordering countries

Rank Population rank Overall rank

USA

UK

Japan

China

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/country_profiles/default.stm

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html NB An Index is useful as it is composite ie made up of more than one data set so gives a more comprehensive measurement than taking one factor alone. Scaling allows to add weight to those factors which we see as being more important .

Global Influence

• All of the factors considered today are variable. By consequence, the influence countries have on surrounding nations and, more broadly, the world, can change.

• Therefore, countries which may once have been considered ‘Superpowers’ may no longer have such influence, whilst other countries are gaining in power

What does the future hold? Extension Reading

• Why the US remains the world's unchallenged super power/

• Why China can't be the super power dominating 21st century