KLSD School Closure

A response to Dr. Kreutzer’s 10/21/2013

presentation

The KLSD school board may voteto close Lewisboro Elementary in 2014

On 10/21/2013, Dr. Paul Kreutzer, superintendent, presented the case for closure as a public hearing.

Let’s look at his slides.

This slide tells the story of declining enrollment in elementary schools

Let’s take a closer look …

Let’s drop projected and look at actuals.

This represents a 20 year period.

It looks a little stuffed together.

Better, but still not quite right. Let’s add in some breathing room

Interesting, what’s that big point in 1997?

In 1997, Increase Miller was overflowing with students, so in 1998, redistricting was done.

Want to see what this looks like after that?

1999-2013 Elementary Enrollment

Any idea about the changes over time?

More houses sold, means more elementary enrollment.

Elementary enrollment

Housing sales

This is both on the same slide

It kind of seems like when housing sales decrease, so does enrollment.

What about average enrollment?

Average enrollment and housing

Housing and enrollment definitely seem to move the same way.

Is there a correlation?

The Pearson correlation between housing and enrollment is .85.

Huh?

You can use a statistical function in Excel called correl or pearson to determine the correlation between 2 sets of numbers.

For this the result is .85

Is that good, does that mean there is a correlation?

There is a very strong positive relationship between housing sales and elementary enrollment.

If r = +.70 or higher Very strong positive relationship

We know this area. We see new families move in and old families move out.

These numbers tell us to believe what we see.

The cost of this mistake is: • crowded classrooms • disruption• multi-million dollar cost to

reopen a school in 5 years• lower property values• higher taxes

Taxes will not go down

Not in 2014 … and not in the future

Closing a school is not a plan for lower taxes.

There is no rush.

Let’s get a demographic report that considers housing

We’ve been graduating large classes during a housing slump.

In 2 years, we’ll see the effect of :

• Full day kindergarten• A housing sale uptick

And we’ll understand how correct those demographic projections are.

Slow down

Let’s get this right.