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The data suggests that enrollment is cyclical • The last Kindergarten Peak was over 20 years ago (the Peak before that in the 1960s) • We are already in the Trough enrollment for Elementary • There is more potential today than at any other point in history to have Kindergarten enrollment growth • Perhaps we should use a more comprehensive method of estimating the potential Kindergarten enrollment in the next 5 – 10 years than taking a 3-year average of birth data from 2009 through 2011 and multiplying it by 1.25, and then holding it constant for each year
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KATONAH-LEWISBORO DISTRICT: ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF ENROLLMENT CYCLICALITY
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Lewisboro is a Unique Place• Lewisboro is an “Aspirational Family Community”, an affluent suburb of
New York City
• Lewisboro has unique characteristics:
a) High Median Household Income
b) Excellent Education System
c) High Taxes
d) High Cost of Living
• Because of this, Lewisboro has historically exhibited much more extreme
Age-Sex demographics than a self-sustaining population, and more
extreme demographics than the greater suburban Westchester region
• Lewisboro derives much of its population from a cycle of family
replacement: Affluent young families from New York City buy homes from
empty-nesters and retirees (confirmed by top real estate brokers by market share in Northern
Westchester county)
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Age-Sex Pyramids
Westchester County Lewisboro
New York CityNew York State
The national and state average representation of the 20-30 year old group is about 14%.
Westchester, as a suburb of New York City, has less, at 11%.
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Lewisboro: An Aspirational Family CommunityLewisboro 2000Lewisboro: 1970 & 1980
Lewisboro: 1990 Lewisboro: 2010
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Since 1970, Lewisboro has always had a population of 20-30 year olds less than 6%. The
community has always relied on young families replacing empty-nesters and retirees.
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Enrollment Cyclicality• As a result of this unique community dynamic, Lewisboro has
historically experienced cyclical enrollment• The peak of the last enrollment cycle occurred in the mid-
1970s, and the district reached a trough level of enrollment in the mid-1980s
• The cycle has three different points to measure:• A) Peak and Trough Kindergarten Enrollment• B) Peak and Trough Total Student Enrollment• C) Peak and Trough Senior Enrollment• The school system has historically experienced very large
swings in Elementary enrollment and total student enrollment
Enrollment cyclicality presents unique challenges for managing school capacity
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School Year Ending
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Kindergarten Enrollment 330 308 288 301 329 300 302 297 298 268 269 285 235 251 260 262 215 190 189 174
Senior HS Enrollment 161 193 178 218 203 244 229 211 257 284 267 315 318 344 295 303 351 294 288 322
Total Enrollment 3141 3304 3449 3656 3787 3910 3987 4048 4112 4111 4109 4115 4041 3949 3880 3868 3773 3580 3484 3374
Peak & Trough Enrollment• Trough Kindergarten Enrollment will trail Peak Student
Enrollment by 8-12 years, due to overlap of demographic age populations and the fact that
• Peak Kindergarten Enrollment will lead Peak Student Enrollment by 8-12 years
• This leading / lagging dynamic is due to the cyclicality of the age demographic and aging of the student body
Green indicates “Peak” Red indicates “Trough”
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Not a New Problem for BOE• Enrollment cyclicality impacted our district in the 1980s
• As the average Baby Boomer exited the school system in the early 1970s, enrollment dropped substantially
Source: 1983-1984 Lewisboro Town Planning notes
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Projecting Cyclical Enrollment• With a 45 year history of having a very small population of
20-30 year olds, Lewisboro’s unique demographic has led to cyclical Kindergarten enrollment
• Using our district’s birth rate to project future enrollment in our district has a very large error rate
• The Kindergarten projection one year out, from Dr. Grip’s 2012 study to the actual 2013 data, was off by 10%
• A 10% error rate in one year’s time is unacceptable, and implies error rates as large as 60% over five years’ time
• More analysis and thought is required to try to accurately estimate future Kindergarten enrollment
• The current demographic data strongly suggests a new cycle is just starting
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KLSD Historical Enrollment
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Statistical Forecasting LLC Projection
In this scenario, Kindergarten enrollment is projected by multiplying the average births from 2009-2011 by 1.25.
The most recent 5-year average Cohort-Survival Ratio is used.
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Projection Assuming Cyclicality
In this scenario, Kindergarten enrollment is assumed to be cyclical, as it has been between 1960 and 2013.
A 20-year average Cohort-Survival Ratio is used.
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Projection Assuming Cyclicality during Net Student Inflow
In this scenario, Kindergarten enrollment is assumed to be cyclical, as it has been between 1960 and 2013.
A 5-year average Cohort-Survival Ratio is used from a period of net positive student migration (1995-1996 through 1999-2000)
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Final Thoughts• Over the past 50 years, Elementary School enrollment has been cyclical
• The normal or “average” Elementary enrollment number is around 1,600
• “Peak” Elementary enrollment is around 2,000 students
• “Trough” Elementary enrollment is around 1,200 students
• What is the district’s plan for handling the next “peak” enrollment cycle?
• How should the district manage periods of trough enrollment?
• Historically, the cycle has lasted roughly 20-30 years. Given the last
Kindergarten class “Peaked” in the late 90s, we should expect another
peak in 5-10 years’ time
• If the next 10 years are going to be different from the 50-year cyclical
history, why is this time different?
