By mutual agreement, the International Social Science Journal publishes the official proceedings and other communications from the following international organizations:

International Association of Legal Science International Committee for Social Sciences Documentation International Economic Association International Political Science Association International Sociological Association International Social Science Council World Association for Public Opinion Research ( W A P O R )

Recent issues:

Vol. XVI, No. 3 Vol. XVI, No. 4 Vol. XVII, No. i

Forthcoming topics:

Peace research History and social science H u m a n rights in perspective

Social aspects of African ressource development Problems of surveying the social sciences and humanities M a x W e b e r today/Biological aspects of race

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© Unesco 1965 SS.65/I.67/A Printed in France by Imp. Crete, Paris

international

social science journal Published quarterly by Unesco

Vol. XVII, No. 2, 1965

J u a n C . Elizaga F . Lancaster Jones

KarolJ . Krótki

J u d a h Matras

David Carney

Jacques Doublet E . G . Jacoby

Population studies

Editorial

I. Problems and methods in demography

Internal migration in Latin America 213 T h e demography of the Australian Aborigines 232 Estimating population size an growth from inadequate data 246 Social strategies of family formation: s o m e c o m parative data for Scandinavian the British Isles and North America 260

II. Population and policy

The economics of health in conditions of low population growth: the example of Sierra Leone 277 Migrations in Europe 284 The demographic variable in the assessment of educational needs 297

III. Select bibliography, by Claude Legeard 307

William M . Evan

International

T h e world of the social sciences

Current studies

T o w a r d a sociological almanac of legal systems

Letters to the editor

335

339

Research and teaching centres and professional bodies

N e w centres and changes of address 340 The work of the United Nations in demography 341 European Institute of Business Administration 348

Australia Social Science Research Council of Australia 351 United Kingdom Institute of Social and Economic Research, York 354 United States of T h e Ford Foundation's population programme 355

America T h e Population Council 359

Meetings

Unification of law for international trade (New York Colloquium, September 1964), by John Honnold 36a National income distribution (Palermo Conference, September 1964), by Jean Marchai 366 Fifth symposium of the International Association of French-speaking Sociologists (Quebec, September-October 1964), by Jean Cazeneuve 368

Announcements 371

Documents and publications of the United Nations and Specialized Agencies 37a

Books received 383

Population studies

Editorial

This is the first number of the International Social Science Journal to be principally devoted to demography, and it is being issued in time for the 1965 World Population Conference in Belgrade. However, it is by no means the first manifestation of interest by Unesco in the field of demography. Five studies have appeared in the 'Population and Culture' series (now discontinued): Culture and Human Fertility, by Frank Lorimer; Flight and Resettlement, by H . B . M . M u r p h y ; The Positive Contribution by Immigrants, by Oscar Handlin and Brinley T h o m a s (second impression i960); The Cultural Integration of Immigrants, by W . D . Borrie (1959), and International Migration and Economic Development: A Trend Report and Bibliography (1961), by Brinley T h o m a s . Only the last two are currently in print.

Further, one volume in the series ' T h e University Teaching of Social Sciences' is devoted to demography (1957) and an International Repertory of Institutions conducting Population Studies was put out as one of the 'Reports and Papers in the Social Sciences' in 1959.

T h e present number of the Journal is also the first to contain a specially prepared, selected bibliography of recent literature on the main topic, as already'announced in 1964. This feature is to replace the general book reviews previously carried, the intention being to m a k e certain issues of the Journal more comprehensive sources of reference, and to complete the round-up of the main topic as given in the articles. It is hoped that this innovation will appeal to readers.

I. Problems and methods in demography

Internal migration in Latin America

Some methodological aspects and results

Juan C . Elizaga

Migration is both a spatial and a temporal phenomenon. The definition of spatial areas and the comparative use of periodic census data are important elements in the coverage of internal migratory movements. The residual method has been widely applied in Latin America, but unreliable vital statistics limit its accuracy and corrective factors must be introduced. The author discusses techniques for ascertaining place of birth, procedures applied to obtain information on out-migrants at specific periods, the distribution of migrants in time and by age (using cohorts and promotions) and other results shown up by migration statistics.

T h e nature of internal migrations

Internal migrations are geographical population movements within the boundaries of one country. Specifically, they involve a change of community (locality), of usual residence or, m o r e generically, they are movements having a relatively permanent nature from one community (locality) to another. Hence, this article does not cover population movements which imply a temporal change such as would be the case with travellers and others w h o m o v e periodically to localities other than those of their residence: commuters, travelling salesmen, transport drivers, etc.

This conventional concept of the nature and scope of internal migratory movements reflects the viewpoint generally adopted by demographers and also falls within the context of most statistical data as well as the methods employed in the appraisal of relevant data.

There are some categories of people difficult to classify, such as those w h o spend several months away from their usual place of residence because of educational necessities, military duties, seasonal occupations, compulsory detainment, etc., but w h o , after the reason for their absence no longer holds, are supposed to return to their community (locality). Perhaps this type of population or some of these categories ought to be given a special status which could be that of temporary migrants.

In appraising migratory movements, two basic notions must be defined with precision: those of space and time. As migration is a spatial movement , it is necessary, in the first place, to establish the geographic units or

Int. Soc. Set. J.. Vol. XVII, No . 2, 1965

214 J. C . Elizaga

segments which the population moves to or from. Further, migrations occur in time and, like death and birth, are functions of time. But in the case of migratory movements this dimension is complex since a person m a y m o v e several times during his life or during any given period of time.

Space. T h e geographic units are called communities (localities) according to the foregoing definition. Different meanings can be attached to the concept of community (locality). T o satisfy statistical needs and to make matters simpler, any cluster of population which bears a n a m e can be referred to as a community (locality). In the case of cities and towns it is relatively simple as in them there commonly exists a concentration of dwellings and a network of streets and public services, while in scattered rural populations where families live in isolated dwellings it will always be more difficult to establish the geographical units.

T h e definition of geographical units in this sense should be established in terms of the widest possible range of spatial distribution, as migratory movements are an aspect of this distribution. A substantial contribution has been m a d e over the last two decades in population censuses with reference to the rational delimitation of geographical units of population (e.g., metropolitan areas, urbanized areas, economic regions, population entities). In general, it is a question of defining populations which constitute socio-economic units such as an urban nucleus and its zone of influence with reference, for instance, to the centralization of the occupational area and the utilization of c o m m o n services. In other cases, for wider areas, it would be useful to define population units in terms of homogeneous features, a m o n g which could be numbered the average income, rural density, the type of economy, the rate of increase of the population, communications systems, and the natural boundaries of a region.

T h e main migratory streams, as a rule, take place between zones displaying differential characteristics. These differences influence the direction and intensity of the movements which, in turn, play an important role in that they stress some of the differences. T h e population migrates from areas offering limited economic opportunities to areas which offer greater opportunities. Usually, these differences in economic opportunities coincide with different educational levels, different levels of urbanization, different systems of community organization, different death and birth rates.

T h e available knowledge about the main streams of migration (rural-urban, inter-regional) must be borne in mind w h e n defining the geographical units of population and classifying statistically the data at both the national and the regional levels. But independently of local conditions, the geographical units must be laid d o w n in such a w a y as to show clearly the differences between rural and urban areas, the differences between the nuclei of different sizes, especially the large cities, and the differences between economic regions.

T h e geographical divisions which are traditionally considered in most census tabulations are based, in m a n y countries, and particularly in Latin

Internal migration in Latin America 2!5

America, on administrative divisions and frequently only on the major divisions (States, provinces, etc.). The data available according to administrative divisions then explain w h y the statistics for the migratory move ments and their estimation are based on the crossing of the boundaries of such divisions, for instance, movements from one State to another, from one district to another (counties, municipalities, etc.).

The larger the area of the geographical unit considered, the smaller the number of migrants. If the units are States (provinces) only inter-State movements are recorded. If they are smaller units (districts, municipalities, etc.), the inter-State movements are recorded as well. In this sense it must be remembered that, frequently, migration between smaller geographical units is as important as or even more important than inter-State migration. This, for instance, is the case of the major administrative divisions within which cities such as Säo Paulo (Brazil), Bogotá (Colombia), and the like are located. During the period 1940-50 the net migration into the State of Säo Paulo was estimated at 101.6 thousand persons (aged 10 and over in 1950) while a comparable estimation for the municipality of Säo Paulo was 546.4 thousand. In this large difference the out-migrants from the State played a part, but even if this movement were not taken into account, net in-migration, which was 297.3 thousand, is still below migration into the municipality.

In turn, net migration into the municipality of Bogotá was estimated at 186.6 thousand persons (over 12 years of age in 1951) for the period 1938-50, whilst the movement of the same nature into the Department of Cundinamarca which comprises the municipality of Bogotá was estimated at 109.3 thousand.

Time. The possibility that one individual m a y migrate more than once during a given period of time leads to establishing a difference between the number of migrants and the number of movements. Over a relatively short period of time these two figures practically coincide, but as the period is lengthened the number of movements (mobility) tends increasingly to surpass the number of migrants; the gap can be very great in highly mobile populations.

Current statistical sources (censuses) do not provide a migratory history of the inhabitants which could be used to gain an insight into each movement with reference to the corresponding time and space. They only help to establish the migratory status in terms, for instance, of the place of birth or the place of residence at a fixed previous date. If the given information is the place of birth, the period varies according to the age of each person. For a child under one year of age, the period of time during which the movement took place is the year preceding the census; if the age is 50 years, the period would be the last fifty years. However, if information about the place of residence n years before the census is available (usually re is a relatively short period: one, five, or ten years), the migratory status of the entire population over the given period can be established.

2l6 J. C . Elizaga

Moreover, only the place of 'origin' or the final 'destination' is k n o w n , not the intermediate movements, if any. T h e people w h o have migrated once or several times and have returned to their place of 'origin' (e.g., place of birth or place of residence n years earlier) are not recorded as migrants. In more general terms, with respect to a geographical unit, the out-migrants w h o have departed and the in-migrants w h o have arrived and departed during the period under scrutiny, are not included in statistics of migrants.

Net migration. This argument indicates that the statistics on migratory movement usually reflect net movements, or rather the final result of the mobility of a population over a given period of time. Thus, the in-migrants to a geographical unit are the survivors still living in that area; the out-migrants are the survivors of those w h o departed and did not return. Frequently, as will be shown in greater detail below, the estimations for migratory movements give the balance between in-migrants and out-migrants, which m a y be either positive or negative depending on whether the former exceed the latter or not.

Statistical data employed to measure internal migrations

T w o main types of information have been used to measure internal migration: (a) data for measuring population movement and its components; (b) data which furnishes direct information about the migratory status of each person (place of birth, place of residence » years earlier, date of last movement , etc.).

T y p e (a) data can be restricted to the figures for a population counted at two different moments of time in a geographical unit and the births and deaths which have occurred in the population residing in that geographical unit during the inter-censal period. If there is no net migration, the growth of the population is due to natural increase (births minus deaths) but if there is a residue, this represents the migratory balance,

M = ( JV„ — N0) — B + D

where JVn and N0 are the populations at the end and at the beginning of the period; B, the births; D, the deaths; and M , the migratory balance.

T h e efficiency of this method, k n o w n as the 'residual method', depends on the completeness of statistics on births and deaths, making allowances for the fact that censal figures are also affected by errors which can be important.

This qualification is a serious obstacle in most Latin American countries where birth and death statistics at the regional level offer evidence of incompleteness, the degree of which is difficult to appraise.

T h e residual method is also used for the corresponding demographic rates. Here, the net migration rate is the balance between the rate of inter-censal growth and the rate of natural growth (births minus deaths). This method, paradoxically, is the best in m a n y cases or the only alternative in others, as the indirect estimations of the rates of births and deaths are,

Internal migration in Latin America 217

under certain conditions, more reliable than the information obtained from vital statistics.

A n analagous method is applied to the estimation of the migratory balance of segments of population instead of total population, provided that these segments can be identified by some of their temporal characteristics, as is the case with respect to sex, year of birth and place of birth.1 T h e application of the residual method by age cohorts is of the greatest interest as it enables demographers to estimate the migrant population on the basis of that characteristic. This information naturally is of interest in itself (to show differential migration by age) but also because, through it, more trustworthy estimations can be reached. A s the statistics of deaths by age are not available for geographical units, it is better and safer to use survival relations instead.

T h e survival relations are obtained from life tables2 or through direct estimations based on the comparison of figures obtained in two censuses. Table 1 shows net rural-urban migration in Colombia during the intercensal period 1938-51. Population concentrations of 20,000 or more 3 were defined as urban, and the remainder as rural. T h e survival relations are the values observed in the population, for each age cohort, during the intercensal period.4

It would have been more advisable to study the population born in Colombia instead of the total population, provided that it were in fact a closed population. Since foreign in-migration was of very little importance during the period considered, the method applied is justified by its simplicity.

C o l u m n 1 in Table 1 shows the net migration at the end of the period (survivors). Columns 2 and 3 contain the relative figures for the urban and rural populations, in that order, which were obtained by using the method described in the same table. T h e results reveal, briefly, that the population acted as expected; there occurred a marked rural-urban migration, higher rates of female migration as compared with male rates, as well as a greater migratory incidence for the young adult ages of both sexes.

T h e residual method by age cohorts has been widely used to measure inter-state migrations in the United States.5 In Latin America, calculations

1. T h e place of birth is considered a datum which appertains to the migratory status and as such is studied further below.

2. In general one cannot expect to find existing life tables for each of the geographical units included. Frequently and as an approximation, figures obtained from a national table are used. The life table models prepared by the United Nations are of great help; these models furnish survival relations for different mortality levels.

3. This division was respected, regardless of the size reached by the nuclei in 1951, in order to ensure a strict comparison.

4. Defined by JV"°g/JV"'8 . Using survival relations which correspond to the population of the country, this simplification leads to errors in the estimation of urban and rural migration. Assuming that urban mortality is lower than average mortality for the country, the net migration would have been overestimated; and conversely, if it were higher than that of the country there would have been under-estimation of net migration.

5. Dorothy Swaine T h o m a s , 'Age and economic differentials in interstate migration', Population Index, Vol. 24, N o . 4 (1958).

2i8 J. C . Elizaga

T A B L E I. Net urban-rural migration by sex-age cohorts. Colombia, period 1938-51.

(per cent)2

Sex and age

in 1938

Men

0-9 10-19

20 -29

30-39 40-49 50-59 60 and over

Women

0-9

10-19

20 -29

30-39 40-49 50-59 60 and over

Net migration at the end of the period1

(thousands)

(1)

2 60. g

104.2

8 2 . 2

35-0 2 0 . 4

11.6

4.8 2 . 7

35i,3

146.3

9 9 - 2

40-5 2 9 . 2

19.8 10.4

5-9

Animal rates of net migration Urban Rural

population3 population3

• w 3-5

4 . 6 4 . 4

2.4 2.1

2.1

1-7 1-5

3-8

5 4 4.4 2-3 2.6 2 .8

2-5 1-7

(3)

— 0.61

— 0 . 7 7 — 0 . 8 4 — 0 . 4 8

— 0 .40

— 0 .35 — 0 . 2 4

— 0 .17

— 0 .83

— 1-09 1.01

— 0 .56

— 0 .59 — 0.62

— 0 . 5 4 — 0 .33

1. Estimated on the basis of the observed survival relations in the population of Colombia during the period

1938-51, and defined by ^ ^ / ¿ V * 9 3 8 .

2. Estimated by dividing the figure in column i by the average population of the corresponding cohort for the period 1938-51, and dividing the result by 13.

3. Populations of the nuclei which in 1938 had 20,000 or more inhabitants were considered as urban and the remainder as rural. The symbol preceding the figures denotes the direction of the movement.

are available for some countries1 as they are also for other areas of the

world.2 T h e greatest' obstacle to the application of the method in Latin

America arises from errors in the statement of age in the censal figures and,

obviously, from uncertainty regarding mortality levels. A possible solution

to both problems lies in the use of the 'observed' survival relations in the

native population during the inter-censal period. Such 'observed' relations,

apart from measuring the probability of survival, also determine 'errors'

in the statements for the two age-groups mentioned. W h e n such relations

are used on populations which are supposed to be affected by a similar

relative error in the statement, a correction factor, which, as a rule, furnishes

adequate results, is being employed.

1. United Nations Latin American Demographic Centre, 'Differential migration in some regions and cities of Latin America in the period 1940-1950. Methodological aspects and results', International Population Conference, N e w Y o r k (1961), paper r27.

2. Irene B . Taeuber, 'Hawaii ' , Population Index, Vol. 28, N o . 2 (1962). Demographic Training and Research Centre (Bombay) , 'Internal migration in s o m e countries of the East', International Population Conference, N e w York (1961), paper i n .

Internal migration in Latin America 219

Place of birth

In the censuses carried out in most Latin American countries there exist tabulated data by place of birth and by place of residence at the level of the major administrative divisions. Such tabulations indicate the number of people (migrants) w h o are living outside the geographical unit of birth (State, province, etc.). It is possible, therefore, to establish migratory streams for a given period of time. Table 2 contains information from the censuses taken in 1952 and i960 in Chile in four provinces in the central area of the country.

T h e difference between the number of migrants counted in 1952 and 1960 in each province, after deducting the deaths wnich occurred in the period, is the net migration for the period. T h e most important migratory current recorded in Table 2 is the exchange which took place between the provinces of Santiago and Valparaiso where the greatest urban centres of the country are located and which are separated by scarcely 130 kilometres. A quick glance at the figures in the table shows that nearly all the provinces have a positive net migration, though its importance varies.

T A B L E 2. Population born in Chile by province of birth and province of residence. Persons enumerated in four provinces in the 1952 and i960 censuses1 (thousands).

Province of residence

TotaP 1952

i960 Santiago

1952

i960 Valparaiso

"952

i960 Aconcagua

1952 i960

O'Higgins 1952 i960

1. The figures in brackets are non-migrants in keeping with the implicit definition of a migrant. 2. Includes migrants to and from other provinces who do not appear in the table.

O n the other hand, the number of non-migrants (in brackets) affords a basis on which to estimate the out-migration from each province to the rest of the country (and abroad) during the inter-censal period. T o this end, the number of deaths1 must be deducted and the number of births

1. These deaths are not to be obtained from the vital statistics (unless there are tabulations b y place of birth, which is highly unlikely). Therefore, the estimations of death m u s t be arrived at indirectly, if possible.

Santiago

1250

1797

(1 133) (1 6 5 4 )

35 41

7 6

17 19

Province ol

Valparaiso

432 549

63 75

(340) (440)

7 7

2 2

Í birth

Aconcagua

172 189

30 34

30

31

(103)

(115)

1

1

O'Higgins

240 288

53 67

4 4

1 1

(170)

(201)

Total >

5 829 7 269

1 700

2 389

487 606

127 140

223

257

220 J. C . Elizaga

added, to the figure for 1952, in the case of each province. T h e difference between the result thus obtained and the figure for i960 is the net out-migration of the people born in the province.

Place of birth, sex and age

In the past, only a few censuses in the region recorded information on place of birth, as distinguished from place of residence at the time of the census, as well as on sex and age.1 This type of tabulation is a step forward as compared with the type of information examined above.

By introducing age, mortality is, in fact, controlled with greater certainty and, on the other hand, migratory movement can be measured within each cohort in both its directions; in-migration and out-migration. That is to say, the estimation described above is used separately for the outgoing movement and the incoming movement .

As already indicated, it is possible to estimate by age-groups the out-migration and in-migration to and from a geographical unit with respect to any other given geographical unit and/or with respect to the rest of the country. This estimation is illustrated in Table 3, in which is considered the migratory movement which took place in the Federal District of Venezuela during the period 1941-50. T o this end, in both censuses, the population was divided into two groups: (a) those residing in the Federal District but born in other federal entities (in-migrants), and (b) those born in the Federal District but residing in other federal entities2 (out-migrants).

T h e m e a n annual rate of net migration was 2.7 per cent for both m e n and w o m e n . This rate includes the Venezuelan native population over age 10 in 1950. T h e rate for people under age 10 at a rough estimation, would be about 3 per cent. Consequently, the net rate of migration for the entire population would be somewhere between 2.7 and 3.0 per cent, though closer to the former than the latter. As the rate of natural growth for the Federal District of Venezuela can be estimated at about 2.8 per cent during the period 1941-50, the total rate of growth should be obtained by adding this rate and the rate of net migration, giving about 5.6 per cent yearly. T h e rate of inter-censal growth for the native Venezuelan population in the Federal District was shown, in the census, to be 5.8 per cent, which shows the consistency of the results obtained.

A striking aspect to be observed is the concentration of migrants in the

1. The tabulations for the i960 census and for other recent years are not taken into account as they are not yet available. Tabulations of the type indicated were m a d e in the censuses taken in Brazil for 1940 and 1950 and in Venezuela for 1941 and 1950.

2. For this information can be substituted that relating to those born in the Federal District and residing in the Federal District (non-migrants). There is more likelihood that this kind of tabulation will be more frequently available than that indicated in the text. However, whenever data on the out-migrants themselves is available it is better to use it, since the error in the censal enumeration by age is—in absolute figures—lower in that case. The error is greater for non-migrants because they are a larger section of the population than migrants.

Internal migration in Latin America 221

T A B L E 3. Out-migration and in-migration in the Federal District of Venezuela During die inter-censal period 1941-501 (Venezuelan native population).

Sex and age'

In

Males (Births)«

0-9 10-19

20-29

30-39 40 and over

Females (Births)«

0-9 10-19 20-29

30-39 40 and over

-migrants'

(1)

(IS-!)

54-4 2 0 . 3

27.4

34 1-5 1-9

(i3-3)

60.4 25.2

23-4 4.6 2-9 4.2

1. Includes the city of Caracas. 2. Age in 1951. 3. Estimated through

Migrants (thousands)

Out-migrants*

(2)

I

3-1 1.6 1.1

0.2 O.I 0.0

e

2.6 1-3 0.8 0.3 O.I 0.2

the residual method (see

Net migration

(3)

51-3 18.6 26.2

3-2 1.4 1-9

57-8 24.0 22.6 4.4 2.8 4.0

text).

In-migration*

(4)

(2-9)

2-9 4.I 5-5 0.9 0.6 0.8

(3.1)

2.8 4-7 4.4 1.1 1.1 1.0

4. Estimated by dividing the amounts in columns I and 2, respectively, by

Annual rates (per cent)

Out-migration*

(5)

O.16

O.3 0.2

0.05 0.05 0.04

0.12

O.3 0.2 O.06 O.O3 O.O5

the average popu

Net migration

(6)

2.7 3-7 5-3 0.8 0.6 0.8

2.7 4.4 4.2 1.0 1.1 1.0

lation of each cohort in 1941-50.

5. Children born during the period X941-50 and still living in 1950. 6. 9,710 male out-migrants and 9,263 female out-migrants were recorded. W h e n these amounts are compared

with the number of out-migrants of different age-groups there is evidence of a censal error. They are, in all probability, false out-migrants; that is, children born in the Federal District because their mothers obtained medical treatment in the hospital in Caracas; this was confirmed because it was established that nearly 70 per cent of these out-migrants reside in other federal entities neighbouring the Federal District (Miranda, Aragua and Carabobo) at the time of the 1950 census.

young adult age-group, between ages 15 and 25 for males and ages 10 and 25 for females. Over the age of 25 or so the rate of net migration is constant: about 1 per cent, a relatively high figure even though it is below the level reached by the population under 25 years of age.

Procedures used in the censuses and in sample surveys to

obtain information on out-migrants at specific periods of time

T w o procedures can be considered the most adequate alternatives; they have been employed most frequently in recent surveys and censuses: (a) place (community, locality, administrative sub-division, etc.) of residence at a fixed past date, for instance n years before the census or survey; (b) duration of present residence (at the time of the census or survey) and place (community, etc.) of last previous residence. These two procedures

222 J. C . Elizaga

are complementary methods more than alternatives, and their integration leads to the most satisfactory results. They involve advantages and disadvantages, some of which are listed here.

Procedure (a) as compared with procedure (b) offers the following advantages: i. A n indication of the redistribution which has taken place during the

period is obtained by comparing the present place of residence of people w h o have reached n years of age with their place of residence n years earlier. This same redistribution can be obtained using procedure (b) but with reference to m a n y periods of time instead of one given period only.

2. T h e populations of the places of emigration could be considered as being 'exposed to the risk of out-migration' during the full period of n years (making the necessary allowances for mortality) and, consequently, these populations could be used as a basis in the estimation of the out-migration rate. T o calculate the amount of 'exposure to the risk' would be a difficult operation—practically impossible if procedure (b) were used.

3. There would be fewer errors in the information about place of residence one, five or ten years before the date of the study than in information concerning the last place of residence. It could be assumed that the ten-year period between both censuses would be very useful, but there are doubts as to the number of errors that might be m a d e in recalling facts and events over such a long span of time. In the case of the population of the United States, it was considered advisable, in the i960 census, to adopt a five-year period (thus abandoning the experience of a one-year period used in the 1950 census). A pre-test showed that, in fact, the non-response rate for a five-year period was not m u c h higher than that for a one-year period, with the advantage that in the first case a m u c h wider sample is obtained.1

O n the other hand, some recent experiences in the use of procedure (b) (see section 6 below) seem to indicate that a confusion arises regarding the place of previous residence and the last dwelling, sometimes deriving, no doubt, from the ambiguity in the definition of 'last place of previous residence' or from the complexity of that definition.

4. Enumeration and tabulation are m u c h simpler under procedure (a). T h e main advantages of procedure (b) over procedure (a) are to be found in the analysis based on the places of in-migration and can be briefly summarized as follows:

1. It provides information about in-migrants with reference to the time period of arrival, for instance the calendar year. It must be kept in mind that the information about time refers to the last movement . This point is analysed in greater detail further on, as it is of great interest.

2. It provides information which can be used advantageously to study

1. H . S. Shryock, Population Mobility within the United States, p. 24, University of Chicago, Community and Family Center, 1964.

Internal migration in Latin America 223

differential demographic and social characteristics of the in-migrants. In fact it furnishes information about the last place of residence and more detailed and exact information about age at the time of migration; both variables can be analysed with reference to, for instance, educational level, occupation and number of children.

In the censuses taken in 1940, 1950 and i960 in the United States, procedure (a) was used. In the 1940 and i960 censuses the information regarding past residence was referred to a fixed date, five years previously, whereas in the 1950 census it was referred to a period only one year previously. In all cases, the place of past residence was defined in terms of counties, i.e. the smallest geographical units. Besides, once every year, the mobility of the population is studied by the Population Current Survey in order to determine the place of residence one year earlier.

T h e 1950 census of Guatemala introduced a similar concept into Latin America by asking for the n a m e of the municipality where each person (over 5 years of age) was living on 1 January 1945, a little over five years before the censal date. The 1961 census in Venezuela sought similar information but referred to a date one year earlier.

Several countries in Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama and Paraguay) adopted procedure (b) instead, in their recent censuses. T h e questions asked in the censal questionnaire, in most cases, referred to: (1) previous place of residence (sometimes recorded as the intermediate administrative area and sometimes as the major administrative area with additional information, in some cases, about the urban or rural category), and (2) the year in which movement to present area of residence took place.

Distribution of migrants in time

Using either of the procedures described in the foregoing section the distribution of migrants in time shows a clear concentration in the years immediately before the census or survey. This occurs mainly because the previous migratory movements are not recorded.

This concentration increases with the mobility of the population, as was seen above. It should also increase proportionately to the extension of the period with respect to which the distribution of migrants is being considered. That is, in a relatively short 'period, five or ten years, in a population with low mobility, the movement recorded will represent, in the case of most migrants, the only movement which took place during that period of time; accordingly, a strong concentration should not be expected towards the end of the period.

Shryock1 quotes the experience of Sweden regarding migrations between communities during the period 1921-30. T h e migrants w h o moved in the last year represented 21.7 per cent. This more than duplicates the

1. H . S. Shryock, op. cit., p. 35.

224 J. C . Elizaga

expected n u m b e r if all the movements were to be recorded, and provided that mobility were even throughout the entire period studied. In 1929 the percentage abruptly drops to 14.5 and decreases as far as 5.2 per cent in 1921. If only the last five years are considered, it is 32.6, a concentration relatively lower than the one observed during the ten-year period.

Even though the type of concentration discussed is affected by the fact that some of the migrants m o v e more than once during the period (even if it is less than one year), additional factors exist. It is believed that the main ones are as follows:

(a) T h e migrants recorded are the survivors. If all the conditions remained the same (age w h e n moving, etc.) the probabilities of survival would be inversely related to the length of the period. In a period of five or ten years, the influence of differential mortality on the concentration of migrants cannot be important.

(b) T h e probability that an in-migrant will migrate again varies with the time elapsed since the first movement . This probability m a y perhaps increase at first but, once the crucial period passes in which the adult in-migrant definitely incorporates himself into the n e w community or fails to do so, it should decrease.1

(c) Differential migration by age w h e n moving, which requires additional explanation given in full further on w h e n the specific case of the city of P a n a m a is examined.

(d) T h e increase of population, provided that mobility remains constant. In all likelihood the observation (b) plays an important role according to the type of area studied. If it is an area possessing strong in-migratory attraction and, consequently, is a terminal stage for most in-migrants, as is the case of most capital cities in the Latin American countries, then the movements recorded will accurately represent the mobility of the period considered. O n the other hand it must be expected that migratory exchanges between towns and small cities will be great. This kind of reasoning leads to the general conclusion that the distribution in time of in-migrants to the great cities should be relatively even over a short span instead of displaying a strong concentration towards the end of the periods.

Table 4 shows distribution according to the duration of residence of in-migrants recorded by the census in the city of P a n a m a ( 1960) and by a survey in three comunas* of Santiago (1962).

In both cities it is to be observed that the concentration of in-migrants in the most recent years, particularly during the last year, increases as the period of time taken is longer. If the period of time were to be limited to thirty years, the yearly proportion, in certain cases, would be 3.3 per cent

1. It is necessary to distinguish the case of any given specific area such as a city or province from all the areas in a country taken as a whole. The observation (b) refers to the first situation. It would have no sense if it referred to all areas of a country as the out-migrants from one area are in-migrants to another and ultimately all people w h o m o v e could be considered as in-migrants. These in-migrants would then be considered as people w h o m o v e more than once.

2 . Minor administrative entities possessing local government.

Internal migration in Latin America 225

T A B L E 4. Percentage distribution of in-migrants of both sexes according to duration of residence in the city of Panama and in three comunas of Greater Santiago (Chile).

Years of residence

TOTAL

Less than 1 year I to 4 years 5 to 9 years 10 and more

All in-migrant!

(1)

100.0

9-6 22.0 16.0

52-4

City of Pan am a»

In-migrants during the last:

Ten years

<»>

100.0

20.2

46.3 33-5 —

Five years

(3)

100.0

30-4 69.6 — —

Three comunas of Greater Santiago (Chile)1

All in-migrants

U)

100.0

20.5 28.2 18.3 33-0

In-migrants during the last:

Ten years

(5)

100.0

30.6 42.1

27-3 —

Five years

(6)

100.0

42.1

57-9 — —

x. Panama census in i960. It does not include in-migrants, either natives or foreigners, who arrived in the city directly from abroad. Also, those immigrants whose period of residence was not stated in the census are not included. The latter represent 7.3 per cent of the total enumerated and it is assumed that they are evenly distributed in all the groups of the classification by length of period of residence since that percentage is similar for all ages, even in the case of those under 5 years of age, where it is 9 per cent.

2. Sample of the population census in Chile (i960). The figures correspond to the comunas of San Miguel, Nunoa and La Cisterna, which in all have a population equal to one-third of the total population of Greater Santiago. The in-migrants born abroad are not included. Those w h o did not furnish information about their migratory status are not included either.

whilst in the city of P a n a m a it was 9.6 per cent, that is to say practically three times as m u c h (column 1). O n examining the distribution of the in-migrants during the last five years as compared with an expected proportion of 20 per cent in the last year, it was 30.4 per cent, that is only one and a half times the former amount .

In the information about the three comunas of Greater Santiago, an appreciably greater concentration is to be seen in the last year and in general during the most recent years as compared with what was observed in P a n a m a City. This contrast is so sharp that it is suggestive of possible errors in enumeration. It is not easy to accept for instance, that 49 per cent of the in-migrants arrived during the last five years,1 nor to accept that, of the in-migrants w h o arrived during the last five years, 42 per cent should have arrived during the last year.

T h e aforementioned proportions were also calculated separately according to whether the in-migrants were born: (i) in the province of Santiago (in which Greater Santiago is located), or (ii) in other provinces.

T h o u g h the province of previous residence does not always coincide with the province of birth, it does so coincide in a considerable proportion of cases. N o w , of the in-migrants born in the province of Santiago, 63.5 per cent arrived during the last five years and of these 45.0 per cent arrived during the last year. O f the in-migrants born in other provinces, however,

1. In the survey on in-migration conducted in Greater Santiago in 1962 b y the United Nations Latin American Demographic Centre, it w a s found that 21 per cent of the in-migrants had arrived in the five-year period 1957-62, that is, about two-fifths of the in-migrants recorded in the censal sample.

226 J. C . Elizaga

only 39.5 per cent arrived during the last five years, and of those 39.2 per cent arrived during the last year.

These figures and other facts1 lead to the assumption that in the case of m a n y in-migrants, through a mistake on the part of the interviewer or an error on the part of the respondent, the initial date of residence in the present dwelling was given instead of the initial date of residence in Greater Santiago. Besides, it is likely that m a n y people born in Greater Santiago (non-migrants) stated the initial date of residence in their present dwelling which gave rise to an error in the classification according to migratory status.2

Distribution of in-migrants in time with reference to age

T h e distribution of in-migrants according to duration of residence varies with their age. For some ages there is to be found a greater proportion of in-migrants having a short period of residence as compared with other ages. (Migratory behaviour classified by sex does not show marked variations; the proportion of w o m e n is slightly higher.)

There are two methods which can be used to study distribution with reference to the duration of residence: by cohort and by promotion. T h e n u m b e r of in-migrants of a given present age (for instance 15-19 years) constitute a cohort. T h e number of in-migrants w h o moved at a given age (for instance 15-19 years), and w h o at the time of the survey belong to that age group or to another one above it, are a promotion. T h e information about the distribution according to the duration of the residence of the cohorts and promotions is obtained from the same tabulation, i.e. the classification of migrants according to their present age and to the duration of their residence, both variables being taken with reference to, for instance, quinquennial age-groups.

In the case of any given cohort, it is constituted by those in-migrants w h o moved at the age which defines that cohort, or at ages above. Those w h o moved w h e n younger obviously have a longer period of residence. Hence, it is inferred that, if the migratory volume is greater during the age which defines the cohort than at an earlier age, such differential migration by age gives rise to a large proportion of in-migrants having short periods of residence. Whereas, if at the age which defines the cohort, migration is not as strong as at earlier ages (for instance if the cohort is 30-34 years) there should be a low proportion of in-migrants having short periods of residence.

In the case of a promotion, as the components moved at the same age, differential migration by age does not have to play any role.

1. Results and additional remarks can be found in 'Assessment of migration data in Latin America', Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, January 1965.

2. As the place of last residence was requested at the level of the province, it was assumed that the last place of residence was the province of Santiago, which is correct, though it does not clarify the migratory status.

Internal migration in Latin America 227

It is useful to point out the factors which contribute to increasing the proportion of in-migrants having short periods of residence, both in the case of cohorts and in that of promotions:

By cohorts (i) T h e information indicates the last movement , if there was more

than one; (ii) T h e duration of residence is limited by the present age of the in-

migrant (for instance, the in-migrants of the present age-group 0-4 have moved , of necessity, during the last five years);

(iii) Differential migration by age, as indicated above; (iv) Stronger exposure to the risk of death (after movement) of the

older in-migrants; (v) A n increase in the migratory volume.

By promotions (vi) T h e same as (1) above; (vii) Differential mortality by age, apart from the factor indicated

in (iv) because the promotion is composed of people older than the corresponding cohort. At relatively high ages, mortality has a limiting effect on the duration of residence (cf. (ii));

(viii) Growth of population: the younger generations are larger in number;

(ix) T h e same as (v).

By comparing the factors which operate in the case of cohorts and promotions, w e observe that (i) and (v) coincide with (vi) and (ix). Differential migration by age (iii) affects the cohorts only. T h e growth of the population (viii) affects the promotions only. T h e effect of mortality is far more important with respect to the promotions (vii) than with respect to cohorts. Finally, the factor (ii) affects the cohorts, above all during the first fifteen or twenty years of life. A n analysis of the censal data for P a n a m a City leads to the conclusion that probably the most important factors in this particular case were the increase in the migratory volume (v, ix), differential migration by age (iii), mortality in the older ages (vii) and the low age of the child-population (ii). It can also be concluded that of the two an analysis based on promotions is the more adequate.

Table 5 shows the proportion of in-migrants (women) w h o moved during the five years before the survey, covering P a n a m a City and Greater Santiago. In the case of P a n a m a City the proportion was calculated for both the promotions and the cohorts.

Columns 1 and 2 contain the double set of proportions for P a n a m a City, the pattern of which, as can be seen, is very uneven. In the cohorts, the proportions show two m a x i m u m s , one in the lower age-group and the second (64 per cent) near the age of 20. F r o m this age the values decrease, at first quickly, and then slowly. In the case of the promotions, the proportions increase until age 20 (37 per cent), after which up to age 35, they

228 J. C . Elizaga

T A B L E 5. Concentration of in-migrants in the years immediately before the date of enumeration, in Panama City (i960) and in Greater Santiago (1962). W o m e n in-migrants.

TOTAL

Age

0-4

5-9 10-14

15-19 20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39 40-44

45-49 50 and over

Percentage last five

By cohort

(1)

I OO.O

67.6 57-2

63-9 41.6

25-7 16.9

H-5 11.6

12.2

11.6

Panama

for the years

City1

By promotion

(2)

18.6

22.5

25.0

36.8 35-4 33-5 31.0

35-96

34-36

41.26

Percentage for the last year for in-migrants of the last five years

By cohort*

(3)

4

27.6

35-2

38-5 27.2

25.6

26.2

26.9

23.6)

26.2 )

30-5

Greater Santiago1

Percentage for the last five years

By promotion

U)

I3.6

12.2

15-2

25-3

23-3 20.8

23.2

23.1

33-0

41.8«

31.8 31.8

1. Panama census (i960), Vol. II, table 79. 2. Survey on in-migration to Greater Santiago (1962). United Nations Latin American Demographic Centre. 3. There is no detailed information to be used in the estimation by promotions. 4. The average age of this group is, approximately, 2.5 years. Therefore, the proportion for the last year is

high, practically 50 per cent. 5. The censal table does not provide details with respect to ages over 50. Consequently, it was necessary to

extrapolate the values in order to separate the in-migrants whose present age is 35 to 49 from those whose present age is over 50.

6. From ages 50 to 59.

decrease slightly, to increase again to the region of 40 per cent towards age 50.

In the light of the factors which operate the pattern of the proportions obtained for the cohorts should be attributed, mainly, to the increase of the migratory m o v e m e n t in the most recent years, strengthened by the effect of differential migration by age. A s the n u m b e r of in-migrants increases with age u p to 20 the proportions u p to that age tend to be relatively high. Later, due to the reverse cause, they tend to be relatively low, an decrease as the individuals grow older.

T h e pattern for the proportions obtained in the promotions is also affected by the increase of migratory m o v e m e n t during the most recent years (in a w a y similar to the effect which population growth would have), but this effect is notoriously lower than in the case of the cohorts. After age 35, this effect is strengthened considerably owing to differential mortality by age, in the sense that the younger in-migrants of each promotion registered have, by definition, a shorter period of residence.

It is necessary to explain w h y the proportions leap from a level near 20-25 per cent for ages below 15 to another level near 35 per cent between

Internal migration in Latin America 229

the ages of 15 and 35. T h e most likely explanations of the difference are the following: (a) the increase in migratory volume over the most recent years was greater in the young adult ages (factor (ix) ) , and (b) mobility is more pronounced in young adults (factor (vi) ) .

T h e pattern for the proportions obtained by promotions for Greater Santiago (column 4) is similar to and confirms that established in P a n a m a City, though the figures are in general lower.

T h e proportions of cohorts of in-migrants with a period of residence of less than a year as compared with in-migrants having a period of residence of less than five years were also calculated for P a n a m a City (Table 5, column 3). F rom the ages of 5 to 50, in most age-groups the proportions are moderately higher than 1/5, which could mainly be attributed to the fact that the migratory movement increased. The figures which correspond to the cohorts aged 10-14 (35.2 per cent) and 15-19 (38.5 per cent), which are m u c h higher, require an additional explanation. This seems to lie in differential migration by age, as in these age-groups the migratory m o v e ment increases rapidly from one age to the next (for instance, it is stronger at age 19 than at age 18; stronger at age 14 than at age 13, etc.).

Other results

It will be possible to compare usefully the results obtained in P a n a m a City and in Greater Santiago with those for other cities and areas of Latin America as soon as the corresponding censal data becomes available. The data about mobility of the population in the United States obtained in the i960 census cannot be compared with these for several reasons. First and foremost, the United States data refer to movements from one dwelling to another; consequently the duration of residence of in-migrants (people w h o move between counties or states) is not necessarily the period of residence within the county. Secondly, the data cover the whole country and therefore include in-migrants to any kind of area, whereas the data examined above refer only to in-migrants w h o arrive in capital cities.1

It follows that, other things remaining equal, the data for the United States should indicate a stronger concentration of the movements/recorded in the most recent years. T h e distribution by calendar years over the last five years is given in Table 6.

T h e very high proportion of movements which took place during the last fifteen months (between 55 and 62 per cent) would be strongly influenced by changes in dwelling within the county of present residence. Data on mobility of non-migrants did in fact also show a high proportion for the last

i. This remark has a bearing on Table 4 (Mobility status and type of mobility of persons aged 5 or over moving into present house between April 1955 and i960, with respect to year moved, age and colour, in the United States: rg6o, based on 5 per cent sample, from the Report PC(2) 2B United States Census of Population i960: 'Mobility for States and State Economic Areas'.

230 J. C . Elizaga

T A B L E 6. Migrants over the last five years, aged 5 years and over, classified by reference to the year when they moved to their present house. United States, i960.

Type of migration

Total in the period

1 April 1955-60

1959 to

i9601 1958 1957

1955 to

1956

Different counties of the same State

Between contiguous States

Between non-contiguous States

1. To 1 April i960. 2. Since 1 April 1955.

/o /o % %

100

100

100

55-5

56.0

61.8

18.7

18.8

18.2

13.0

12.9

11.3

12.9

12.3

8.7

fifteen months: 39.5 per cent. This proportion, however, is far below that reached by the migrants, which leads one to think: (a) that some of the migrants m o v e d m o r e than once during the five-year period, and (b) that some of the migrants (like some of the non-migrants) changed dwellings m o r e than once within the same county.

Table 7 shows the proportions by age cohorts of those w h o m o v e d (last m o v e m e n t ) during the last fifteen months preceding the census, with reference to the total n u m b e r of people w h o m o v e d during the period 1 April 1955-60. This estimation was m a d e for three different migratory statuses: movers (non-migrants), migrants between counties of the same state, and migrants between non-contiguous states.

T A B L E 7. Relative importance of the mobility recorded for the last fifteen months preceding the census with reference the total mobility recorded for the period 1 April 1955-60 in the United States. Both sexes.

Percentage of movements recorded during the last fifteen months preceding census

Age at 1 April i960

5-9 10-13 14-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-44 45-46 65 and over

5 and over

Movers (non-migrants)

(1)

36.9 36.O 39-6 57-9 58.0

43-3 36.6

34-6 35-6 37-9 39-5

Migrants between

same State

(2)

45-4 43-9 49.6

77-9 69.2

55-4 45-7 43-2 44.1 44.4

55-5

Migrants between noncontiguous States

(3)

57-1 54-7 59-7 83-9 76.3 65.1 60.4 55-6 53-1 48.1 61.8

Internal migration in Latin America 231

T h e proportion of mobility during the last fifteen months preceding the census increases for all ages proportionately to the m e a n distance travelled: it is lower in the cases of those w h o did not change their county of residence (movers) and higher in the case of those w h o migrated between non-contiguous states. In all cases the proportions increase with respect to age, from age 10 (5 years old w h e n the period began) and reach their peak at ages 18-19.

It is obvious that such high proportions in all the ages can only be accounted for by the great mobility of the population, since the repetition of movements in a five-year period greatly affects the numbers. T h e reason for higher proportions between ages 15 and 30 than for the remaining ages, would be due to: (a) mobility being greater in the young adult ages than in the other ages, and (b) the effect of differential mobility by age.

Professor Juan C. Elizaga is assistant director of the United Nations Latin American Demographic Centre in Santiago, Chile. He has published a number of papers on internal migration in Latin America, including one submitted to the International Population Conference in New York in ig6i.

The demography of the Australian Aborigines1

F . Lancaster Jones

The main findings of an exploratory survey conducted in the Northern Territory are presented. The data used were subject to considerable margins of error, but, nevertheless appear to have provided a plausible outline of the demographic characteristics of the Aboriginal population. The attempt to correct the age data by a smoothing procedure is encouraging; interesting and intelligible results can thus be obtained by cautious treatment. It is shown that age data can only be reliable when an efficient system of vital registrations has been instituted, which requires not only appropriate legislation, but also sufficient social and economic incentives.

T o study adequately the demographic characteristics of any population, civilized or primitive, two general types of data are required: census counts and vital registrations. T h e census provides information about the characteristics of a given population at a single point of time, and vital registrations provide a continuous record of vital events occurring in that population between census dates. T h e accuracy with which these two types of data are collected, and their scope, varies from one country to another, but in the case of Australia these records are generally considered to be highly accurate, at least for the non-Aboriginal population, which in 1961 m a d e up 99.62 per cent of Australia's total population. T h e remaining 0.38 per cent consisted of Australia's 40,081 (estimated) full-blood Aborigines, w h o are excluded from published statistics relating to the 'Australian' population. T h e absence of published population data for the Aborigines does not, fortunately, m e a n that no sources are available for the study of their d e m o graphic characteristics. S o m e unpublished data have in fact been collected by censal authorities, registrars of births and deaths, and special authorities concerned directly with matters of Aboriginal welfare and assimilation.

1. In this paper the words 'Aboriginal' and 'Aborigine' refer to full-blood Aborigines unless otherwise stated. The writer wishes to acknowledge the co-operation of the Welfare Branch of the Northern Territory Administration in providing access to its records of Aboriginal population, and the financial support of the Australian Institute of Aboriginal Studies, under whose auspices most of the basic analysis reported in this paper was carried out.

Int. Soc. Sei. J., Vol. XVII No. 2. 1965

The demography of the Australian Aborigines 233

Sources

Section 127 of the Australian Constitution states that 'In reckoning the numbers of the people of the Commonweal th , or of a State or other part of the Commonweal th , aboriginal natives shall not be counted.'1 This constitutional provision is applied to all published statistics relating to the population of Australia, and census data and vital statistics are normally 'exclusive of full-blood Aborigines', except of course in tables dealing specifically with the Aboriginal population. Section 127, however, does not prevent the censal authorities from enumerating the Aboriginal population at census times, and since 1921 census collectors have been instructed 'to ascertain, as fully as possible, by means of the ordinary schedule, detailed information concerning full-blood Australian aboriginals w h o were civilized or semi-civilized, and w h o were either in employment, or living in reserves, camps, etc., in proximity to reserves'.2 In previous years, w h e n large numbers of Aborigines were still living under partly nomadic and tribal conditions, such enumerations were usually far from complete. By 1961, however, w h e n all but a few thousand Aborigines were in periodic or continuous contact with centres of European settlement,3 the census enumeration of Aborigines appears to have been virtually complete in Queensland, N e w South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, 89 per cent complete in the Northern Territory, and 80 per cent complete in Western Australia. O w i n g to the general unreliability and incompleteness of m u c h of the data collected for the Aboriginal population at census time, only total population figures are usually published. The accompanying figures, showing the estimated distribution of Aborigines at the time of first European settlement4 compared with their present distribution, give some idea of changes during the intervening period. It should be pointed out that the 1961 figures m a y underestimate the number of part-Aborigines, owing to differences in definition of 'Aborigine' between the Commonweal th and some States. The Director of Native Affairs in Queensland, for example, assessed Queensland's total Aboriginal population in June 1963 at some-

1. So far as one can tell, it appears that this provision did not arise directly out of racial prejudice but rather represented a pragmatic formula adopted in order to balance the competing interests of the various Australian colonies at the time of federation. T h e inclusion of A b o rigines in the population for the purposes of determining electoral representation would have weighed in favour of the colonies with large Aboriginal populations—Queensland, South Australia (which at that time included the Northern Territory), and Western Australia. Partly for this reason the franchise was not extended to Aborigines. Since 1962, however, Aborigines have had the right to vote in federal elections.

2. Australia, Bureau of Census and Statistics, Census of the Commonwealth, 30th June ig6i; Census Bulletin No. 23, p . 11.

3. Ronald M . Berndt, 'Groups with minimal European associations', in: Helen Sheils (ed.), Australian Aboriginal Studies: A Symposium of Papers Presented at the 1961 Research Conference (London 1963), p . 385-408.

4 . The 1788 estimates are those made by A . R . Radcliffe-Brown on the basis of likely population densities in different parts of Australia and on the available historical and anthropological evidence. Australia, Official Year Booh for 1930, p . 696.

234 F. Lancaster Jones

thing over 40,000 persons,1 double the census count. Even so, the 1961 census figures serve to show that today the largest numbers of Aborigines are located in those parts of Australia least attractive to European settlers —the Northern Territory, the Kimberleys district of Western Australia, the deserts of central and southern Australia, and the remoter reaches of Cape York Peninsula in Queensland.2

T A B L E I . Distribution of Aborigines.

State or Territory

Queensland N e w South Wales1

Victoria South Australia Western Australia Tasmania Northern Territory

A U S T R A L I A

1. Including the Australian

1788 (Estimate)

IOO OOO

40 000 II 500 10 000 52 000

2 5OO 3 5 O O O

251 000

Capital Territory.

Total

I9696

I4859 I 796 4884

18276

38

I9704

79 253

1961

Full-blood

8 686 1 488

253

2 147 10 121

17386

40081

Mixed-blood

I I 0 1 0

13 371

1 543 2 737 8155

38 2318

39 172

So far as vital registrations a m o n g Aborigines are concerned, the laws of all States and Territories require the registration of all births and deaths. However, as indicated above, published statistics of births and deaths relate only to the non-Aboriginal population, and no systematic record of unpublished (i.e. Aboriginal) registrations is available. For this reason it is as yet impossible to assess the completeness of Aboriginal vital registrations. T h e granting of the federal franchise in 1962 and the extension in i960 of social service benefits to all Aborigines w h o were not 'nomadic or primitive' have presumably provided additional incentives for the registration of Aboriginal vital events, and partial vital registration records apparently exist for some government settlements and reserves and at some long-established missions. T h e possibility of using these data to prepare an Australia-wide survey of Aboriginal demography is currently being explored by the present writer. So far, however, only the unpublished registrations relating to the Aboriginal population of the Northern Territory have been examined, and it is to the discussion and analysis of these records that w e n o w turn.3

Queensland, Department of Education, Annual Report of the Director of Native Affairs for the Year ending 30th June, 1963, p . 3. The figure quoted is exclusive of Torres Straits Islanders. For a more detailed discussion of the distribution of Australia's Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal population in 1961, see: Australia, Atlas of Australian Resources (Department of National Development). See also F . Lancaster Jones, A Demographic Survey of the Aboriginal Population of the Northern Territory, with special reference to Bathurst Island Mission, Canberra, Australian Institute of Aboriginal Studies, 1963. (Occasional Papers in Aboriginal Studies, N o . 1.)

T h e demography of the Australian Aborigines 235

The Aboriginal population of the Northern Territory

In the 1961 census, 2,318 part-Aborigines and 15,442 full-blood Aborigines were enumerated in the Northern Territory. In addition to this enumerated population there were also, according to estimates m a d e by the Welfare Branch of the Northern Territory, a further 1,944 full-bloods w h o escaped enumeration. By 1961 very few of these Aborigines were living a fully traditional life, and whereas in the 1930s between one-half and two-thirds of them were nomadic, by 1961 only a few hundred nomads remained. T h e majority led a relatively settled life at or around government settlements, mission stations, pastoral properties, and the Territory's few urban centres.

Since the end of the Second World W a r , the non-Aboriginal population of Northern Territory has increased threefold, from 10,730 persons in 1947 to 27,095 persons by 1961, and this development has been associated with rising living standards among the Aborigines. T h e movement of Aborigines into government settlements and mission stations has meant a more efficient and extensive provision of health and educational services, and a population which for a century was believed to be destined to extinction has begun to increase. The rate of growth tends to be m u c h lower in the harsher inland areas of the Territory than in the northern coastal fringes, and so far the general rate of growth has been quite modest, averaging something around 1.4 per cent per a n n u m since i960.1 In some parts of A r n h e m Land, however, the rate of growth has been at least double this over-all figure.

Reasonably reliable estimates of the number of Aborigines in the Northern Territory have become available only in the last ten years, partly because of the movement of Aborigines into more permanent settlements, but mainly as a result of changes in official policy towards Aborigines. Policies of protection, designed to shield the Aborigines from any final injustices as they passed into extinction, had been instituted in most parts of Australia by the end of the nineteenth century, but during the 1930s these negative policies began to yield under the pressure of more forward-looking attitudes.2 In the Northern Territory this transition culminated in the Welfare Ordinance of 1953, which introduced new concepts into Aboriginal administration. For our purposes the main effect of this new legislation was that whereas in previous times Aborigines had been subject to protective, and restrictive, legislation simply because they were Aborigines, an Aborigine could be brought under the provisions of the Welfare Ordinance only by virtue of his individual declaration as a ward of the Director of Welfare. Such a declaration was to be based on the need of the individual and not on his race as such. As wards were to be legally rather than racially defined, persons likely to be brought under the Welfare Ordinance required a legal identity. T o satisfy this requirement, between

1. Australia, Northern Territory Administration, Welfare Branch Annual Report 1962-63, p. 97.

2. A . P. Elkin, The Australian Aborigines: How to Understand Them (3rd edition, Sydney

1954), P- 321-8.

236 F. Lancaster Jones

ï5 July I 9 5 3 J w h e n the Governor-General's assent to the Welfare Ordinance was notified in the Northern Territory Government Gazette, and 13 M a y 1957, w h e n the ordinance came into effect, officers of the Native Affairs Branch of the Territory's Administration undertook the massive task of enumerating all persons likely to be declared wards (namely full-blood Aborigines) and of collecting the additional personal information required under the welfare regulations. This additional information covered such things as European and tribal names, any identifying marks, genealogical, linguistic and familial data, date of birth (where available), and of course sex. T h e collation of these data and their entry on individual cards in the Register of W a r d s provided the first reasonably accurate count of the Northern Territory's Aboriginal population.

At the time of its introduction in M a y 1957 the Register of W a r d s did not provide a complete or accurate count of Aborigines in the Territory. Although it was intended that virtually all full-blood Aborigines should be declared wards, in fact some escaped enumeration and others were enumerated more than once, under different European names. Since 1957, however, the coverage of this population register has been improved. As additional information has been received it has been integrated into the existing records, and once individual Aborigines could be positively identified by reference to the Register, the registration of Aboriginal births and deaths also improved.

T h e registration of Aboriginal births and deaths has been compulsory in the Northern Territory since 1 July 1949. Prior to the compilation of the Register of W a r d s , however, it was impossible to assess the accuracy and completeness of these vital registrations. In some parts of the Territory, such as on mission stations, government settlements, and some pastoral properties, Aboriginal birdis and deaths were notified to the superintendent or property-manager, but sometimes no official registrations were recorded. T h e establishment in 1957 of a central register of population m a d e it possible to check the coverage of the registration system and to ensure that information recorded on such registrations was at least consistent with the data recorded on the Register of W a r d s . Moreover administrative officers could and did check the Aboriginal population in specific areas on their periodic tours of duty, and ensured that births and deaths which had occurred during their absence were in fact recorded and registered. Consequently the coverage of the vital registrations system quickly improved, and whereas in 1957 only 80 per cent of Aboriginal births appear to have been registered, by 1961 this proportion had probably risen to around 95 per cent. Less is k n o w n about the completeness of death registrations, but on a priori grounds it can be suggested that Aboriginal death registrations are more nearly complete than the birth registrations. Ideally this suggestion needs testing, by taking sample populations in the field and checking individual births and deaths against the registers. But this has not yet been attempted.

In April 1962, w h e n the study at present being described was begun,

T h e demography of the Australian Aborigines 237

these two demographic sources for Aborigines in the Northern Territory were available. The Register of Wards , subject to its limitations, provided an age and sex structure at succesive points of time since 1957, and the birth and death registrations, whatever their deficiencies, gave some idea of the levels of fertility and mortality.

Age and sex structure

Since the registration of Aboriginal births is a relatively recent innovation in the Northern Territory, the ages shown on the Register of W a r d s are for the most part estimates subject to variable degrees of error. These estimates were m a d e by numerous officers of the Native Affairs Branch over a period of almost four years. As Figure 1 (overleaf) shows, the estimates show a marked tendency to cluster at years of estimated birth ending in the figure o or 5. If the estimates had been m a d e at a single point of time, as happens in censuses for example, two sorts of clusters might have been expected, one reflecting a preference on the part of the enumerators for years of birth ending in o and 5, and another reflecting a preference for ages ending in o and 5.1 Thus , if the estimates had been all m a d e in the space of one year, say 1957, one would have expected to find clustering at years ending in o and 5, but also at years ending in 7 and 2. Undoubtedly the second sort of clustering did occur in the enumeration of the Territory's Aboriginal population, but since this enumeration was spread over several years its effect has been masked. A s Figure 1 shows quite clearly, the main clusters occurred at the years ending in o and 5, and were particularly striking for years of estimated birth preceding 1932. These quinquennial 'eruptions' in the age structure were equally marked a m o n g m e n and w o m e n and became more prominent, as one might expect, with increasing age. Thus only 21.2 per cent of the population'born' in the period 1936 to i960 were estimated to have been born in years ending in o or 5, compared with figures of 41.2 per cent for the years 1911 to 1935 and 61.7 per cent for the period up to 1910. A s a closer examination of Table 2 also suggests, the degree of clustering tended to be slightly greater for years ending in o than for years ending in 5, hence the skipping effect revealed in age groups 15-19 through to 45-49.

T h e fact that these estimated ages cluster at five-yearly intervals does not imply that the range of error in the estimates is likely to be within the limits of a five-year span. All that can be legitimately concluded from the data is that where year of birth was u n k n o w n , the tendency for the enumerator to select a year ending in o or 5 was extremely strong. T h e estimate itself is subject to u n k n o w n limits of error, and undoubtedly individual enumerators varied considerably in their ability to estimate the ages of Aborigines. Moreover, the absence of clustering on Figure 1 for years of

1. Such a situation was recently reported by McArthur for two New Guinea populations. Norma

McArthur, 'The age incidence of Kuru', Annals of Human Genetics, Vol. 27, N o . 4 (1964),

P- 341-52-

238 F. Lancaster Jones

Moles Estimated year of birth Females

FIG. I. Estimated age distribution of full-blood Aboriginal males and females, Northern Territory of Australia, 31 December i960.

birth after 1932 does not necessarily imply increasing accuracy in the age-estimates. It m a y merely reflect a tendency a m o n g enumerators to select intermediate ages w h e n estimating the ages of younger people. Thus one would expect an enumerator to be perfectly happy with an estimate of 1895, 1900, or 1905 for the year of birth of an older person; but for a younger person he might prefer an intermediate year such as 1933 or 1938, merely because he felt he should be able to m a k e a more accurate guess in the case of younger Aborigines. T h e actual estimate might be equally inaccurate in both cases, but whereas the ages of older people would tend to cluster at five-yearly intervals, those of younger persons would tend to assume a more random distribution. Nonetheless, it is likely that the estimated ages of persons under 35 in i960 were reasonably accurate, since it must have often been possible to date their births by reference to well-remembered historical events and to persons whose exact age was k n o w n . Since 1950 of course, exact dates of birth are available for m a n y Aborigines from the birth registrations.

In the initial analysis of the age data shown on Table 2 and Figure 1, no attempt was m a d e to smooth the age distributions. It was felt that insufficient evidence on the likely limits of error was available, and that as this

The demography of the Australian Aborigines 239

T A B L E a. Northern Territory of Australia: estimated age distribution of full-blood Aboriginal males and females, 31 December i960.

Age group

0-4

5-9 10-14

15-19 20-24

25-29

30-34 35-39 40-44

45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69

70-74 75 and over

TOTAL

Males

I 246

I 134 879 695 761 568 684 532 57O 408 351 270

351 206

138 139

8932

Recorded

Females

I HS I 159

866 609 700 622

707 568 581 381 323 219 272 188 116

83

8 537

Males

I 246

1 134 879 783 704 652 650 590 512 471 337 282 364 189 117 122

8932

Smoothed

Females

1143 ' !59

866 793 707 674 601

571 523 429 291 231

215 161

96 77

8 537

Source: Welfare Branch of the Northern Territory Administration.

was the first extensive study of Aboriginal demography yet attempted in Australia, minimal corrections ought to be m a d e . For the purposes of this paper, however, some smoothing has been attempted, the results of which are both interesting and encouraging.

T h e smoothing procedure was as follows. For both males and females born after 1944 no smoothing was attempted on the grounds that errors for persons born in this period were not likely to be significant. For males estimated to have been born between 1910 and 1944, a range of error often years was assumed (up to five years younger or four years older than estimated), and the numbers were redistributed accordingly for each year within the range; for the period 1890 to 1909 a range of fifteen years was assumed (up to eight years younger or six years older) ; and for the period up to 1889 the assumed range was twenty years (up to ten years younger or nine years older). A m o n g the females the ranges were slightly different: for the period 1925-44 the assumed range of error was ten years (up to six years younger or three years older than estimated); 1910-24, also a range of ten years (up to five years younger or four years older) ; and for periods 1890-1909 and up to 1889 the ranges were the same as among the males.

Three main points can be m a d e about the above assumptions. Firstly, their use does not necessarily imply that the age-estimates have been improved; it is rather that their distribution has been m a d e to approximate what appears to be a more reasonable form. Secondly, the choice of ranges was m a d e to suit the data and to secure a desired result; some experimentation and adjustments were required to achieve a smooth transition from

240 F. Lancaster Jones

one assumption to the next. T h e effective ranges of redistribution (ten, fifteen, and twenty years) were of necessity multiples of five, in order to smooth out the effect of the five-yearly clusters. Thirdly, variations in the ranges were matched as far as possible with what seemed on the available evidence to be the most c o m m o n types of error m a d e in estimating the ages of Aborigines. It was assumed that the range of error widened with increasing age, that under-estimation was slightly more c o m m o n than over-estimation, and that over-estimation was more prevalent a m o n g w o m e n under the (estimated) age of 35 years.1

The mechanics of the smoothing procedure were not arduous. Persons estimated to have been born in each year were redistributed over their assumed range; this redistribution was repeated systematically for each year of birth and the redistributed numbers re-summed to provide a smoothed age distribution. For example, males estimated to have been born in 1938 were spread evenly over the period 1934-43, those born in 1937 over the period 1933-42, and those born in 1936 over the period 1932-41, and so on for each year of birth, and n e w totals were obtained for each year by summing the redistributed numbers. Thus the n e w figure for the 1937 period was composed of ten n e w numbers, each representing roughly one-tenth of the numbers previously recorded for the years 1933-42. T h e result of this smoothing is depicted graphically on Figure 1, which shows quite clearly its effect on the five-yearly clusters.

The smoothing of the age structure had other interesting effects. Since it was assumed that most ages were over-estimates rather than underestimates, particularly in the case of young w o m e n , the median age of the population was reduced from 22.2 to 21.9 years among the males and from 22.7 to 22.0 years among the females. Moreover, the age-specific masculinity rates behaved m u c h less capriciously when calculated on the smoothed age distributions (Table 2), and this somewhat unexpected correction provides some evidence for suggesting that the smoothing procedure m a y have actually improved the general reliability of the estimates. Another interesting feature of the age pyramid (Figure 1) is the breadth of its base: in i960, 36.8 per cent of the population were children under 15, a figure which provides clear evidence of a continuous growth in the Territory's Aboriginal population since the end of the Second World W a r .

Age-specific fertility and mortality

As mentioned above, the registration of Aboriginal births and deaths has been compulsory in the Northern Territory since July 1949. These registrations are known to be incomplete, but Welfare Branch officers estimate

1. For an interesting discussion of the problems and errors associated with estimating the ages of Aborigines see: F . G . G . Rose, Classification of Kin, Age Structure and Marriage among Groóte Eylandt Aborigines ; a study on method and a theory of Australian kinship (Berlin, i960), p. 42-51, 94-5, and 474. For different assumptions made in smoothing the age distributions of two N e w Guinea populations, see McArthur, op. cit.

T h e demography of the Australian Aborigines 241

that since 1956, w h e n the enumeration of the Aboriginal population for the Register of W a r d s was largely complete, vital registrations have improved Moreover, the Welfare Branch of the Administration itself conducts regional censuses through its patrol officers, settlement superintendents and the missions, and these surveys supply some information on (surviving) births and deaths not registered with the Registrar-General's Office. These supplementary data suggest that whereas in 1957 only 77 per cent of A b o riginal births were registered, this proportion has risen to 87 per cent, 92 per cent, and 95 per cent in 1958, 1959 and i960 respectively. O w i n g to the lateness of m a n y registrations,1 no attempt w a s m a d e in the present study to analyse births and deaths occurring after 31 December i960. Only the period 1957 to i960 was considered. All Aboriginal birth and death registrations received by the Registrar-General's Office between December 1956 and April 1962 were examined, so that any late registrations might be included. Information on the ages of mothers and on the ages of males and females at death was extracted from the registers. Since little reliability can be placed o n the recorded cause of death a m o n g Aborigines,2 this subject was not investigated.

B y April 1962, Aboriginal births registered as occurring in 1957, 1958, 1959 and i960 numbered 424, 481, 527 and 521 respectively. Aboriginal deaths registered for the same years were 289, 259, 301 and 266. These give the rates shown in Table 3.

T A B L E 3. Aboriginal birth and death rates.

Year

I957 I958 I959 i960

Crude birth rate

25-9 28.9

31-1

30-4

Crude death rate

17.7 15.6 .7.8 15-5

Natural increase

8.2 13-3 13-3 14.9

These rates cannot be accepted as entirely accurate,3 and if, as seems likely, m o r e births than deaths escape registration, the rate of natural increase during this period w a s perhaps s o m e w h a t higher than indicated, around 15.5 or 16.0 per 1,000 population. T h e completeness of the 1957 birth registrations is particularly suspect, as already suggested, and for this reason the following analysis of fertility and mortality has been restricted

1. In April i960, for example, the number of births recorded by the Welfare Branch for the calendar year 1959 was 520: by June 1961 the number had risen to 592.

2. J. M . Crotty and R . C . Webb, 'Mortality in Northern Territory Aborigines', Medical Journal 0/ Australia, Vol. 2 (1964), p. 489-92.

3. This study has assumed that the population under analysis is a 'closed' population. There are good reasons for doing this. It is a legally defined population, and details of 'Northern Territory' Aborigines who give birth to children or die in other parts of Australia are usually referred back to Northern Territory authorities. Migration can for this reason be effectively ignored.

242 F. Lancaster Jones

to the three-year period, 1958-60. O w i n g to the relatively small n u m b e r s involved this period has been treated as a whole, and the rates s h o w n in Tables 4 and 5 have been calculated from the m e a n populations for the period and from m e a n figures of births and deaths. For the purposes of calculating these rates it has been assumed that the birth registrations were only 88.6 per cent complete over the period and that death registrations were complete. A correction factor has been applied to the fertility rates but not to the mortality rates. Finally, it should be emphasized that s o m e of the rates are subject to comparatively large standard errors (Tables 4 a n d 5). All rates have been calculated on the recorded and smoothed ages, a n d in the case of the smoothed rates, ages of mothers and ages of deceased males and females were redistributed on the basis of the smoothing procedure used in redistributing the age structure.

T A B L E 4. Northern Territory of Australia: age-specific fertility rates of full-blood Aboriginal females, 1958-60.

Age of mother

IO-I4

i5-r9 20-24

25-29

30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Total

Total fertility

Registered fertility

rate1

O.OI7

O.172

0.212

0-I57 O.I47

O.080

O.O47

0.014

O.846

4.23O

Standard error

O.OO5

O.OI5

O.OI5

O.OI4

O.OI3 O.011

O.O09

O.O06

Smoothed fertility rate1

O.OI7

O.182 0.20I

O.169

O.I33 O.080

O.O43

O.OI5

O.840

4.2OO

1. Corrected for under-registration of births. 2 . Corrected for under-registration of births and calculated from smoothed age distribution and re-distri

buted births.

A s the figures given in Table 4 suggest, the fertility of Aboriginal w o m e n in the Northern Territory between 1958 and i960 w a s not unduly high, compared with s o m e other populations. M c A r t h u r for example has reported considerably higher fertility rates for the native populations of Fiji and S a m o a , 1 and even on some mission stations in the Northern Territory the level of fertility was rather higher than these general figures suggest. Undoubtedly, however, the incidence of pregnancy wastage through miscarriage and induced abortion w a s high in s o m e areas, and this reduced the over-all level of fertility. It is likely that as the physical conditions of life improve, tibe completed fertility of Aboriginal w o m e n will increase b y perhaps as m u c h as 50 per cent. E v e n if mortality remains at its present levels, further population growth will result from increasing levels of fertility.

1. Norma McArthur, Introducing Population Statistics (Melbourne 1961), p. 54.

The demography of the Australian Aborigines 243

T A B L E 5. Northern Territory of Australia: age-specific mortality rates of full-blood Aboriginal males and females, 1958-60.

Age at

death

0

1-4 5-9

10-14

'5-19 20-24

25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44

45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75 and over

Registered mortality rates

Males

O . 1 3 7

O . O 2 5

O . O O 3

O . O O I

0 .003

0 .002

0 .005

0 .003

0 .008

0 .009

0 .012

O . O 2 4

O . O I 7

0-035 O . O 7 8

O . 0 6 8

O . 0 8 8

Females

0 .154

0.018

0.001

0.002

O . O O 5

O . O O 5

O . O O 6

O . O O 4

O . O O 4

0.01 I

0.010

0.024

0.006

0.033

0.080

0.077 0.122

Standard

Males

O . O I 2

O.OO5

O.O02

O.OOI

0.002

0.002

O.OO3

O.002

O.OO4

O.OO4

O.O06

O.OO9

O.O07

O . O I I

0.022

O.O24

O.O29

[ errors

Females

O.OI4

O.OO4

O.OOI

0.002

0.003

0.003

0.003

0.002

O.OO3

O.OO4

O.OO5

O.OO9

O.OO5

0.012

0.021

O.O3O

O.O44

Smoothed mortality rates1

Males

O . 1 3 7

O . O 2 5

O . O O 3

O . O O I

0 .003

0 .003

0 . 0 0 4

0 .006

0 .007

0 .009

0 .016

0 .023

0 .027

0 .040

0 . 0 5 4

0.061

0.081

Females

O.I54 O.O18

O.OOI

0.002

0.005

0.006

0.005

0.004

0.006

0.009

0.013

0.018

0.023

0.039

0.057

0.075

0.104

1. Rates calculated from smoothed age distributions and redistributed deaths.

Table 4 suggests that at current levels of fertility Aboriginal w o m e n in the Northern Territory give birth to 4.2 children during the child-bearing period. A s w e might expect in a population where marriage is virtually universal and commences, for w o m e n at least, at relatively young ages, fertility is high at ages under 20, reaching a peak at ages 20 to 22. Fertility remains moderately high up to the early thirties but thereafter decreases rapidly. Even so, at all ages the level of fertility was considerably lower than that observed by McArthur for Fijians and Fiji Indians in 1951. T h e pattern of fertility was not greatly affected by using the smoothed ages distributions and redistributed births.

In the case of the mortality rates, however, the pattern of mortality for ages 45 and over was greatly improved by the use of the smoothed age distributions; and whereas the recorded mortality rates had fluctuated quite markedly, the smoothed rates followed an entirely plausible progression (Table 5). This improvement is interesting and again suggests that the smoothing procedure m a y have improved the quality of the data.

T h e infant mortality rates require some comment . T h e rates shown in Table 5 are the registered rates. N o allowance has been m a d e for possible under-registration of births, on the grounds that while it m a y be possible to pick up surviving unregistered births through local censuses, no reliable estimate can be m a d e of those infants whose birth and death went unregistered. Even on the favourable assumptions that infant deaths were recorded

244 F. Lancaster Jones

with complete accuracy but that the registration of births was only 90 per cent complete, the over-all infant mortality would be reduced only slightly, from 143 to 132 infant deaths per 1,000 live births. Whatever the assumption, the infant mortality rate a m o n g Northern Territory Aborigines between 1958 and i960 was very high.

According to Table 5 the registered infant mortality rate was higher for females than males. T h e difference between the two rates was not statistically significant, however, and the demographic significance of this difference can only be determined by future research. In the absence of any evidence that female infanticide, direct or indirect, is practised by the Aborigines, it seems probable that this high female infant mortality rate represents a secular fluctuation only.

Expectation of life

A n abridged life table was constructed from the registered mortality rates shown in Table 5. Owing to the fluctuations in age-specific mortality rates for persons over 39, a free-hand curve was fitted to the rates and a more probable approximation of the true mortality rates derived. T h e rates thus derived were very similar to the smoothed rates (Table 5). According to the life table the life-expectation of Aboriginal males at birth was 50.0 years and that of females only slightly higher at 50.7 years. Once an infant had survived the high risk of mortality associated with the first year of life his life expectancy rose appreciably, and a child of 5 years could look forward to another 58 years of life. T h e mortality experience of 1958-60 yielded the following pattern. O f 100 male and 100 female births,

12.8 males and 14.3 females died before reaching age 1, 21.1 males and 20.3 females died before reaching age 5, 30.4 males and 30.3 females died before reaching age 40, 57.4 males and 54.7 females died before reaching age 65.

Thus w e see that two-thirds of persons w h o died before reaching the age of 40 were children under 5. It is in infancy and childhood that future reductions in mortality must be achieved if any appreciable gains in life-expectation at birth are to be anticipated.

Population growth

T h e Aboriginal population of the Northern Territory will undoubtedly increase. At what rate is uncertain, but at current rates of growth it will increase to about 23,000 persons by 1975, an increase of something over 30 per cent in fifteen years. As already suggested fertility m a y well increase beyond its present levels, and even if infant and childhood mortality remains high, the over-all rate of increase will probably quicken. If m o r tality at young ages can be reduced to lower levels, the Aboriginal population of the Northern Territory could well number 25,000 or even more by

T h e d e m o g r a p h y of the Australian Aborigines 245

1 9 7 5 , a prospect w h i c h w o u l d h a v e s e e m e d inconceivable thirty years a g o .

A l t h o u g h in this p a p e r little reference h a s b e e n m a d e to the physical, social

a n d e c o n o m i c conditions o f Aboriginal life in Australia, rapid populat ion

g r o w t h is the best possible evidence of rising living standards a m o n g

Australia's Aboriginal population.1

1. For some discussion of social problems, see Chapter IX, 'The contemporary scene', in Helen Sheils (ed.), op. cit., p. 385-440.

Dr. Frank Lancaster Jones is research fellow at the Australian National University, Canberra, and is currently engaged on a major project analysing the social structure of the city of Melbourne, and possibly to be extended later to other Australian cities. He has published articles on the Italian population in a Melbourne suburb.

Estimating population size and growth from inadequate data

Karol J. Krótki

In approaching population data from underdeveloped countries, three biases are operationally useful: rate of growth is more important than size; population figures refer to the past; and the reliability of figures in suspect. Post-enumeration surveys have become a feature of the best work. In dealing with inadequate data, the following tools of analysis are put forward: age distribution by application of the quasi-stable population theory, and the population growth estimation experiment (the Chandra-Deming formula) as first applied in Pakistan. Age distributions can also be applied to urban migration, seasonality in vital events and life-cycle stages. The author concludes with some remarks about the denominator.

A visitor to the Department of C o m m e r c e in Washington, D . C . , standing in front of the population clock in the main hall m a y be unduly impressed by the apparent precision with which population changes in the United States are being recorded through births, deaths, immigration and emigration, though the relevant data are reasonably accurate, even if not quite as accurate as, say, in England or the Netherlands or the Scandinavian countries. Not that it would matter a great deal if the data were less accurate. T h e emphasis in demographic research would switch somewhat from the substantive meaning of the figures towards considerations of their accuracy, but the economy of the country as a whole would continue at its buoyant pace, perhaps just a shade more erratically.

The problem and its prevalence

It is in the underdeveloped countries living at the margin of subsistence in circumstances where a slight difference in any one variable in the economic analysis can m a k e all the difference between stagnation, even failure, and slight success that population is quite a critical factor, and yet it is in these same countries that the data are usually uncertain. The majority of the populations of the world are in this category. This uncertainty and its wide prevalence as revealed in the United Nations Development Decade acted as a stimulus to the development of analytical tools designed to narrow the margin of uncertainty.

Int. Soc. Sei. / . , Vol. XVII. No. 2. 1965

Estimating population size a n d growth from inadequate data 247

W h e n confronted with inadequate data the demographer has three courses of action open to him: to collect improved data (e.g., Cavanaugh, 1963), to correct analytically data already collected (e.g., Clairin, 1964), or to collect substitute data (e.g., Blacker and Martin, 1963; El-Badry and Chandrasekaran, 1963). T h e first course of action, improvement of the data, involves a methodological study of survey practices and is outside the scope of this article.1 T h e present writer having spent half his professional life collecting poor data has devoted the other half to correcting it analytically and through special surveys. T h e purpose of this article is to describe some of the gimmicks and tricks of the trade available to a demographer confronted with inadequate data. It is based on the writer's practical experience and biased by it. T h e frequency of references to his o w n work is in no w a y indicative of his role in the development of theory and only partly explainable by the extent to which he applied the theory to practical needs.2 Before presenting several instances of estimation on the basis of inadequate data a few generalities are in order. They are intended to give the flavour of the climate in which one operates w h e n dealing with such data.

W h e n dealing with population data from an underdeveloped country it is useful to approach it with three biases.3

T h e first one is that it is usually of much greater importance to the country concerned to know the rate at which its population grows rather than its population size. There are two reasons for this. Firstly, whatever the size is, it is. Even if the most sophisticated application of the theory of 'opt imum population' were to suggest that the population of a given territory should be half of what it is, this is not an operational finding. There is nothing one can do about it. T h e second reason is that certain methods of national product estimation for some sectors of the economy m a y depend on the very population size. Changing population size changes proportionately the contribution of the given sector to the national product and leaves the national income per head of population largely unchanged.4 T h e rate of growth, on the other hand, is of immediate interest: it can be compared with the rate of growth of the economy a n d — w e are told by workers in the field of family planning—it can be manipulated by an appropriate population policy. T h e effectiveness of present approaches to the problem can be

1. Also excluded is the whole field of, mainly arithmetical, devices for correcting misreported information, such as mis-stated ages. S o m e of them are exceedingly sophisticated (e.g., Carrier and Farrag, 1959) and the United Nations have published whole textbooks on the subject. Their frequent weakness is inability to treat selective underenumeration and variations in enumeration completeness between censuses.

2. The writer is aware of at least a sizeable proportion of the m a n y and varied interesting endeavours by his colleagues in this field, but it is not possible to do justice to them in a 5,000-word article.

3. The second bias, and probably the third one, are useful also with regard to developed countries, but they are not the concern of the present article.

4. If this argument is correct then the suggestion to the effect that 'in developing countries a proper enumeration of the population is the first operation to be carried out before instituting a development plan' (Chevry, 1965, p . 2) would appear to have its emphasis misplaced.

248 K . J. Krótki

doubted, though first swallows of effective population policies have been reported from India (Population Council, 1963a, p. 4) and possibly from Ceylon (Population Council, 1963Ô, p. 11).

A second useful bias is the understanding that a population figure never is. It always was at some date in the past. This understanding is important not so m u c h to avoid such obvious mistakes as to say in 1965 'the population of X is' and then quote a 1961 figure. M o r e than that, it is necessary to induce a state of mind appreciative of population dynamics. A population m a y have had a high birth rate over the recent decade, but as a result of events a couple of decades ago there m a y be a (temporary) shortage of mothers just n o w and, even though the fertility of each mother is the same, there will be a drop in the birth rate. O r to take another example: until recently Japan was a strong contender for fifth place in the population size league. Today there is no doubt that while Japan is successfully applying all possible (and elsewhere impossible) means of delaying its slide past the 100 million mark, both Pakistan and Indonesia have rushed ahead and are well beyond the same 100 million mark. 1

T h e third bias necessary is to suspect the reliability of figures. A p h e n o m enon in the data need not be a true demographic fact. Let a few examples be quoted. A country shows three widely differing rates of increase between four enumerations (28, 18 and 15 per cent). However, w h e n only population above the youngest ages is considered the changes become less remarkable (23, 2i and 17 per cent). O n investigation it is found that there was differential under-enumeration of children at the various censuses (Bour-geois-Pichat, 1953a). Again a country with only one census and no registration of vital events shows a low infant mortality ( I M R ) in relation to adult mortality, in relation to fertility and in relation to its general level of development. W h e n compared with a large number of other countries, where, incidentally, infant mortality appears to be underestimated, the reported I M R of 94 (children dying within one year out of each 1,000 born) has been increased to an estimated m i n i m u m of J 40 and possibly 200 (Krótki, 1961a). O r again, an extensive analysis of Greek data has been undertaken on the assumption that the various quantities reported for ages, sexes and periods (first week of life, first month of life, etc.) must stand to each other in some relation not very different from that obtaining elsewhere (Valaoras, 1965). As a result of this analysis, a large number of reasonable adjustments were m a d e to monthly registrations, to total annual registrations, to parts of age-specific mortality rates, to various sex ratios and so on.

S o m e investigations do not depend on any one approach, but rest like involved detective work on a whole series of considerations, each individually fragile, but cumulatively coherent. S o m e are ingenious and, being based on theory, can be used again in similar circumstances. S o m e others

1. It is interesting to note that this identical development must have been quite independent of the pro-natalist policies of one Government (Indonesia) and the anti-natalist policies of the other (Pakistan).

Estimating population size and growth from inadequate data 249

provide corroborative evidence in one instance and cannot easily be extended over other cases. With particularly fertile writers the wealth of demographic and non-demographic facts which can be unearthed through the use of demographic analysis is quite amazing (e.g., Lorimer, 1946).

Peculiarities of field checks

' A population census is not a census of people but a s u m m a r y of a large n u m b e r of pieces of paper which originally have been produced with some reference to some of the people living in a territory and have since been subjected to all the vicissitudes of sorting, tabulating and other modes of mistreatment. A so-called complete or full-count census is never complete, and, not having been done on a sample basis, it suffers from low quality inherent in a large-scale task. It is only w h e n the remoteness between reports from so-called complete censuses and the population is realized that census results can be discussed dispassionately' (Krótki, 1964). This somewhat overdrawn picture has been painted by the present writer in order to free an important group of people from their attachment to the printed and 'official' census results.

Demographic analysis has repeatedly indicated that census results fall short of reality by a considerable margin. Only a few examples need be mentioned: 5 million in 1950 in the United States (Goale, 1955), 8 million in 1961 in Pakistan (Krótki, 19636) and 20 or 25 million in 1951 in India (Coale and Hoover, 1958, p. 354).

Post-enumeration surveys

Field checks of field work must not be viewed as alternative to sophisticated office checks or as supplements required only by inadequate field work during the original survey. T h e y have become an indispensable part of the best surveys. There are m a n y examples of field inquiries into the reliability of field results.1 There is at least one example of adjustments arising out of a field inquiry actually punched into the cards in the form of various raising factors for affected age and sex groups (the First Population Census of Sudan, 1955-56). M o r e generally, census takers while recognizing the need to report on post-enumeration checks are slower in making the actual adjustments in their results. This is, of course, justified w h e n the results of the check are as suspect as the main job, but m a y also be due sometimes to the impossibility of cutting across established interests.

A repetition gives response variances, but does not avoid biases

A repetition of a survey under identical circumstances gives the variations in characteristics obtained by identical tools of measurement (like obtaining

1. Though reports on such activities are less numerous.

25° K . J. Krótki

two results while measuring the length of a house with the same tape). There is a growing literature on the subject of viewing a full-count census as only one of a number of random outcomes of a universe of alternative possibilities with results shattering to the complacency of survey-users in the case of at least some characteristics (e.g., Fellegi, 1964).

It must be obvious that a repetition of an inquiry under the same conditions, even if carried out by the 'best' enumerator1 (Krótki and Hashmi, 1962, p. 377), can be no solution to the detection of any biases inherent in any given method. T h e problem is often recognized, but avoided by recourse to the suggestion that post-enumerators should be superior in their training and conditions of work (Vangrevelinghe, 1965, p. 3). With a repetition, even if superior, the same errors of bias are likely to be repeated (ibid., p. 2). In the submission of the present writer the failure of such surveys to come up with results hoped for is not necessarily to be sought in the inherent intricacies of a post-enumeration survey (ibid., p. 4), but in their repetitive-ness. Even w h e n a complete field check is carried out, as in the U . S . S . R . (Taeuber, 1965, p. 4), the relevant question remains whether it was a repetition or an enumeration from a different angle. A repetition m a y disclose response variances, but like a wrongly-numbered measuring tape, it will not detect biases of the measuring method.2

Post-enumeration surveys an ultimate and inevitable feature

T h e tools in the hands of social surveyors are being refined daily. T h e progress in the field of sampling theory and design, computer-related complex estimations, improvement and evaluation of response, rigorous methods of field control and technological developments in data processing (Linder, 1965), is rapid. There is no doubt that the increasing consciousness of the duty of checking one's o w n results as critically as possible and reporting openly to the users on the checks will increase the use of post-enumeration surveys. A frank appraisal openly arrived at is becoming an unavoidable feature of a survey report. However, this will take time to become generally recognized and practised. In the meantime the best use must be m a d e of inadequate data by other means.

Age distribution a powerful tool of analysis

A g e pyramids with wiggles, usually in the middle ages and usually more pronounced on the male side, are well known. Such wiggles m a y show war losses or losses by emigration w h e n concave or gains by immigration w h e n convex. Only relatively recently has it been established that changes in births have a m u c h more pronounced influence on the proportionate age

1. Particularly w h e n there are no clear criteria indicated for the selection of the 'best' enumerator.

2. ' W e did it again and came up with the same results' could be as misleading as any other of the statements with which humanity likes to reassure itself.

Estimating population size and growth from inadequate data 251

distribution than changes in death. A common-sense explanation of this phenomenon is that changes in mortality are not, by and large, age selective. O n e cannot improve the health conditions of people aged 25 and not improve at the same time the health conditions of people aged 30. Thus the proportionate effect of a change in mortality on the age distribution pyramid is slight: like a growing onion it m a y add a layer throughout the length of each side, or, less frequently, shed an edge with increasing mortality, but the proportions at various ages do not change drastically. Even the celebrated and m u c h discussed ageing of populations is not, in the first instance, the result of improvements in mortality. In fact, it has been shown empirically (Coale, 1956) that in more than half of the populations experiencing improvements in mortality (i.e., a lengthening of life expectation) the proportions at old ages are decreasing. Lorimer in 1951 and Sauvy in 1954 have shown that but for the improvements in mortality resulting in younger populations the actual ageing of populations which was taking place due to falls in fertility would have been even greater.

T h e decisive influence on age distribution is changes in fertility. A drop in birth rate from 40 to 20 would halve the base of the age pyramid and after a period of years would m a k e the entire pyramid half as slim. A halving of the death rate, on the other hand, from, say, 20 to 10 would distribute itself over all ages—even if in somewhat varying proportions—and would leave the relative age distribution largely unchanged. T h e impact of the birth rate is concentrated at one age only, age zero. Hence the dramatic effect on the age pyramid.

The quasi-stable population theory

T h e theoretical apparatus covering all these possibilities goes under the n a m e of a stable population theory (Lotka, 1939), which says that, no matter what the original age distribution, so long as a population is closed to external migration and has fixed age and sex schedules of fertility and mortality, populations will eventually develop one and only one age distribution. T h e theoretical concept of a stable population seldom had a counterpart in reality, but since the discovery that mortality does not, within reason, shape the relative age distribution the analytical usefulness of the stable population theory has been immensely increased under the general heading of the quasi-stable population theory (Coale, 1963 and the literature quoted therein).

Reliability of birth estimates

Ideas about fertility can be formulated from the shape of the age pyramid: if slim—fertility is low, if with a wide base—fertility is high. If, then, ideas about intercensal growth can somehow be obtained, mortality is a mere residual obtained by subtracting growth from fertility. If ideas about intercensal growth are uncertain in the case of the total population, then

252 K . J. Krótki

perhaps one or two age groups could be compared and, in the absence of migration, views could be formed about the attrition experienced by such age group or groups between the two censuses. T h e mortalities at different ages being highly correlated at any one level of general mortality, the rest of the mortality curve can be deduced, under favourable circumstances, from one part of it. However, in the absence of exact age reporting this is an uncertain procedure and one is never too sure about mortality. T h e wide base of the age pyramid, on the other hand, is usually there, whatever the misreporting, to point to a high birth rate.

S o m e anxiety has been expressed (Demeny, 1965) that mechanical approximation of populations in the process of destabilization to stable populations can lead, especially with rapidly changing mortality conditions, to patently wrong results. N o w there are some reasons w h y a drop in mortality affects age distribution, particularly w h e n it takes place from a high level of mortality. It does so through fertility. 'Ill-health can be a cause of inability to conceive, of premature abortion and of stillbirth. High mortality rates are a cause of frequent widowhood and thus of reduced fertility. Since mortality decline is associated with decreased morbidity and increased chances of survival during reproductive years of life', 'even if there is no change in age-specific fertility, there m a y be an increase in crude birth rates' (United Nations, 1964, p . 27, 33). Apart from this source of interdependence between mortality and fertility, there is a mathematical dependence working through age distribution. T h e actual degree of this dependence and the size of the ultimate difference between stable rates and destabilized rates depends on several considerations: the age pattern of the mortality decline, the rapidity of the decline, the time elapsed since the decline began, and the recent persistence of the decline (Coale, 1963a, p. 182). In extreme cases the birth rate estimated from an age distribution could be different from the actual birth rate by four births per thousand of population (Demeny, 1965), or less than ten per cent with birth rates over forty.

There are other sources of trouble with age distributions. There are those age pyramids (single years of age) which look like Christmas trees with longer branches at ages ending with o and somewhat shorter branches at ages ending with 5. T h e practitioner is little perturbed by the smoothing of such pyramids. There are standard ways of doing this and the usefulness of such age distribution is no smaller than of others. However, at least one case must be reported where age misstatements around age 10 at two successive censuses were so severe and blended with strong migrational effects (the 1947 partition of the Indo-Pakistan sub-continent) that they opened the whole question of the usefulness of the relevant age distributions (Krótki, 1965). However, even in this case it was possible, with a bit of artistry, to arrive at acceptable vital rates (Krótki, 1963e).

Estimating population size and growth from inadequate data 253

Unreal worry about birth rates

There is something of a circular argument about the worry that destabliza-tion m a y lead to wrong readings. T h e mortality schedules of populations in underdeveloped countries are not k n o w n although for surveys giving proportions of children surviving very ingenious ways have been suggested of producing life tables (e.g., Brass, 1963). T h e existing model life tables1

cannot therefore be applied with assurance, but that of course was only too obvious all along the line, because if they were known it would not be necessary to apply model mortality conditions. If known, they themselves would go towards making model life tables. (Moreover, inasmuch as these mortality conditions are n o w rapidly changing and at least the higher levels are being deserted fast, they m a y never be known.)

W h e n an attempt has been m a d e to estimate the historical birth rates of India and its parts (Saxena, 1965), readings for any one part of India at any one point of time differed by ten and fifteen births per 1,000 population because of misreporting and irregularities in age reporting. T h e extreme difference, quoted earlier and seldom encountered, arising out of destablization, was four births.

T h e teachers and students at the United Nations Centre for D e m o graphic Training and Research at C h e m b u r have applied several methods to several populations (Chandrasekaran, 1964). Their main difficulty appears to have been the crudeness of their material and the consequent impossibility of applying more refined methods.

In such circumstances the burden of the analysis switches to detective work piecing together considerations, 'each individually fragile, but c u m u latively coherent' (to quote an earlier sentence). Once somehow such a defective age distribution has been reconstructed the mere application of the theoretical apparatus is a small matter.

Unreliability of death rates

All that one can expect from model life tables is a general indication of what might have been the situation, very approximately, at any one age once ideas have been formed about the general level of mortality. The age-specific mortality must have been U-shaped, high at young ages, low in the middle and high again at old ages. T h e downward leg of the U must have been dropping more rapidly (though not necessarily for little girls as the masculinity ratios tend to rise at the tender age of 3 for some populations; Krótki, 19636, p . 298) and the upward leg of the U must have been rising more slowly, but that is about all that can be said.

1. The most popular are the United Nations model life tables, only one of a series of imaginative and yet painstaking publications, veritable milestones in the advancement of demographic theory, which make any newcomer to the field wonder how it was possible to operate at all before the advent of the Population Branch at the United Nations (United Nations, 1955)- For many years the model life tables did sterling service with a dozen pages. A much closer approximation to reality is just about to appear in print, but it will take almost a thousand pages (Coale and Demeny, 1964).

254 K . J. Krótki

Should there have been good age reporting in at least two censuses, and no migration between censuses, the survivors at the next census when compared with their o w n age group at the previous census could provide excellent evidence on mortality, but this is seldom the case. Usually there are several influences confusing the situation and allowing for a variety of explanations. A leading researcher in the U . S . A . working on an Asian country in a leading demographic centre, having gone through a series of alternatives, concluded with almost audible disgust: 'There must be some other cause.'

There is something unreal in the attempt to introduce further refinements in the crude tools available. Interest in mortality must be unprofitable on the basis of an inadequately reported age distribution. There are good reasons w h y changes in mortality do affect age distribution.

Births and conceptions

Births are considered by some analysts as a poor indicator of conceptions w h e n used as a measure of success or failure of family planning campaigns. Inasmuch as such campaigns m a y be associated with an improvement in general standards of health, the previously and prematurely lost conceptions m a y n o w terminate in live births and counterbalance the effects of family planning. T o the extent that this argument is valid, the usefulness of the age distribution is also impaired. However, at birth rates equal to fifty and more, there cannot be too m u c h room for a difference between births and conceptions, while an age distribution obtained from the next enumeration would show a narrowing of its base, with a true birth decline.

The PGE experiment

T h e P G E (Population Growth Estimation) experiment has been described on several occasions (e.g., A h m e d and Krótki, 1963). It is a field operation going on since the end of 1961.1 It covers twenty-four areas in Pakistan selected at random, each with just over 5,000 people. Its purpose is to collect accurate vital rates, but also a variety of ancillary items of d e m o graphic data of a quite outstanding and unique nature. In essence the experiment consists of two independent operations: a continuing registration and a quarterly enumeration. T h e records arising out of these two independent operations are compared event-by-event at headquarters.2

During this matching operation the records are divided into three categories: those matched, i.e. caught by both operations, and the two lots

1. The P G E experiment costs about $100,000 annually, financed partly by the Government of Pakistan and partly by the Population Council of N e w York (1962 and 1963) and the United States National Center for Health Statistics for Washington, D . C . (1964 and 1965). Both these latter institutions also provide foreign expertise and advice.

2. Comparisons of totals m a y yield deceptively similar results if it so happens that events add up to a similar number, but individual items which went to make up the totals m a y not be the same.

Estimating population size and growth from inadequate data 255

caught by one operation only. From the three categories an estimate is m a d e of the fourth category: events missed by both operations. T h e experiment is based on a set of involved procedures which require hundreds of pages of description in several manuals and their intricacy and the endeavour to provide for every contingency must not be underestimated, particularly in the case of the more obvious situations ( M ü h s a m , 1964, p . 43).

First application of the Chandra-Deming formula

It is not intended to spread the P G E over the whole of Pakistan. In circumstances where there are advantages to a certificate of non-registration, rather than the registration (Krótki, 1965a), there is no reason w h y the whole country should be covered by a comprehensive system and anyhow, whatever the intention, it will not be so covered in the foreseeable future. In such circumstances it is not helpful to view the sample as a temporary measure (Chevry, 1965, p . 4) . It should remain a permanent feature of Pakistani demography.

Apart from its being not a stop-gap arrangement but a permanent solution to Pakistani needs, it is also the first application of the formula suggested for the estimation of the 'fourth category' of events, i.e., events omitted by both parts of the experiment (Chandra and Deming, 1949). There have been earlier attempts at comparing documents from two different operations, e.g., the Mysore study (United Nations, 1961, p . 22, 226 and others), but they did not use fully the theoretical apparatus suggested by Chandra and Deming. T h e novelty of this approach lies in the departure from attempting a better and better (decreasing returns?) sample on orthodox lines (ISI, 1963). Currently, a related activity has been started in Thailand (Thailand, 1964) and, it is understood, in Turkey and Egypt. A continuing sample survey to determine more accurately births and deaths has been reported from Rhodesia1 but it is not clear whether it is in line with modern developments or along more traditional lines.

Unorthodox applications

T h e important analytical uses to w h i c h a g e distribution c a n b e p u t h a v e b e e n described. Results c a n b e obtained e v e n with poor data because wi th the high fertility typical of underdeveloped countries the base of the age p y r a m i d is w i d e . T h e r e are other uses to w h i c h age distributions can b e put , less important bu t interesting, because they s h o w the a g e distribution as a mirror of the d e m o g r a p h i c past.

Temporariness of urban migration

T h e age distributions o f East a n d W e s t Pakistan w e r e g r o u p e d into four h o m o g e n e o u s distributions. It has b e e n s h o w n that there w a s a reverse

1. Bulletin de l'Institut International ¿le Statistique, tome 32, p. 113.

256 K . J. Krótki

correlation between the rate of growth as reported by censuses and the extent of migration as indicated by irregularities in age distributions (Krótki, 1963a). In other words, the more immigrants a town received (swellings in the middle on the male side of the age pyramid) the slower it grew. T h e hypothesis has arisen that the immigrants are temporary and return having achieved some limited purpose of the migration, the very temporariness sharpening up the male swelling by not encumbering them with children, old people and womenfolk. Not unreasonable rationalizations of an anthropological nature can be suggested to fit this hypothesis. If it is true, m u c h of such urbanization is spurious.

Age at male puberty, female puberty and menopause

During the First Population Census of Sudan 1955-56 no questions were asked about ages (except for infants). Instead, meaningful answers—it was found—were obtained about the three stages of the h u m a n cycle given in the title of this subsection. T h e census-takers concerned were quite prepared to think in terms of these three points, as if they were points on a topological scale (imaginary stretchable age axis). Fortunately, it proved possible to assign to these points age values through a study of age distributions (Krótki, 1965e). T h e fortunate part was due to the fact that the youngest ages were so numerous that the base of the age pyramid proved very wide. Once the horizontal axis was wide and the vertical axis remained the same as in other populations (some old people must have survived even in the Sudanese population), the large group between infants and the aged could be spread like a sail between the b o o m of the y axis and the mast of x axis in a limited number of ways only all of them producing identical or similar ages at male puberty, female puberty and menopause.

The problems of the denominator

T h e classical problem arises out of the fact that vital events occur throughout the year and it is difficult to determine to which population they refer. T h e correct answer that it is the total number of man-years lived by the population experiencing the vital events, is operationally not very helpful, though important to surveys based on small samples. There is an example of a very ingenious attempt to calculate the correct 'exposure time' in Brazil (United Nations, 1964a, paras. 21 and 22).

T h e real problem of the denominator lies in the fact that surveyors interested in the numerator (number of vital events) somehow do not exert themselves to obtain exact population totals. T h e spiritual fathers of the P G E experiment spare the denominator no single thought (Chandra and Deming, 1949). T h e immediate godfather does not mention it (Coale, 1963e). T h e putative fathers pay it some lip service (Ahmed and Krótki, 1963), but for a long time did nothing about it (Ahmed and Krótki, 1964). There is probably a certain degree of incompatability between the two

Estimating population size and growth from inadequate data 357

interests, perhaps only a hangover, because historically the two sides were

furnished b y different agencies. Certainly considerable ingenuity is required

to combine in one inquiry the total population and the events of exactly

the s a m e population (defined in its defacto or de jure man-years) .

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Analyse démographique avec application particulière à l'espèce humaine. Paris, Hermann.

M Ü H S A M , H . V . 1964. Moderator's introductory statement: vital statistics from limited data. International Population Conference, Ottawa, igß^ (cited above), p . 25-46.

P O P U L A T I O N C O U N C I L . 1963a. Studies in family planning. N o . 1. April 1964. N e w York, T h e Population Council.

. 1963e. Studies in family planning. N o . 2. December 1963. N e w York, T h e Population Council.

R O B E R T S , G . W . 1963. Improving vital registration in the West Indies. International Population Conference, New York, ig6i (cited above), vol. II, p. 420-6.

S A X E N A , G . B . 1965. Estimates of birth rate and expectation of life in India on the basis of quasi-stability. United Nations World Population Conference, Belgrade. M i m e o graphed document for distribution to participants only.

T A E U B E R , Conrad. 1965. N e w concepts in census methodology. United Nations World Population Conference, Belgrade. Mimeographed document for distribution to participants only.

Estimating population size and growth from inadequate data 259

T H A I L A N D . N A T I O N A L STATISTICAL OFFICE. 1964a. Survey of population changes: study outline. July 1964. Mimeographed.

U N I T E D N A T I O N S . D E P A R T M E N T OF E C O N O M I C A N D SOCIAL AFFAIRS. 1955. Age and

sex patterns of mortality. Model life tables for under-developed countries. N e w York. (Population studies, n o . 22.)

. 1961. The Mysore Population Study. N e w York. (Population studies, no . 34.)

. 1964a. Guanabara demographic pilot survey. N e w York. (Population studies, no. 35.)

1964e. Provisional report on world population prospects, as assessed in 1963. N e w York.

V A L A O R A S , V . G . 1965. Testing deficiencies and analytical adjustments of vital statistics. United Mations World Population Conference, Belgrade. M i m e o g r a p h e d document for distribution to participants only.

V A N G R E V E L I N G H E , G . 1965. Les enquêtes par sondage dans le contrôle des recensements démographiques. United Nations World Population Conference, Belgrade. Mimeographed documen t for distribution to participants only.

Dr. Karol J. Krotki is chief of demographic analysis and research at the Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Ottawa, Canada. He has also been deputy director of the Sudanese Department of Statistics, visiting fellow at Princeton University and, recently, research adviser to the Institute of Development Economics at Karachi. He has published two books on Sudanese demography and many articles on various problems connected with population studies, especially in developing countries.

Social strategies of family formation: some comparative data for Scandinavia,

the British Isles, and North America1

Judah Matras

A procedure for inferring the extent to which female cohorts are characterized by 'control' or 'non-control' of fertility is reviewed. TTiis procedure uses census-type data giving women classified by age at marriage and number of children ever bom to yield estimates of numbers or percentages ever controlling or attempting to control fertility. It is suggested that comparative analysis of'social strategies of family formation' of cohorts be carried out in terms of cohorts' joint distribution by age at marriage and fertility control characteristics.

Introduction

A l t h o u g h m a r r i a g e a n d family formation is a n individual or couple event, it has nevertheless b e e n a lmost universally recognized that societies a n d social collectivities—far f r o m being indifferent a n d permitting r a n d o m choices a n d decisions a m o n g their m e m b e r s — a r e characterized b y distinctive patterns of courtship, m a r r i a g e , childbearing a n d spacing, socialization a n d child-rearing, a n d dissolution of marriages a n d families. Societies m a y h a v e m o r e or less rigidly m a i n t a i n e d n o r m s governing family formation, t h o u g h typically there is scope for individual variation in marital a n d family formation decisions. T h e set of courtship or dating, m a r r i a g e , child-bearing, a n d related decisions a n d actions taken b y a n individual m a y b e considered as constituting that individual's strategy o f family formation; but it is the distribution of the population of a society or social collectivity, category, or g r o u p over the possible individual strategies w h i c h is referred to here as that collectivity's social strategy of family formation.

Social strategies of family formation vary a m o n g societies, subcultures, a n d collectivities; a n d within a given society or collectivity the social strategy of family formation m a y change in time. T h e strategies of family formation characterizing a society or social collectivity have very important

i. The research reported here was aided by grants from the Ford Foundation and from the University of Chicago Social Science Research Committee to the Population Research and Training Center. Computations were carried out by Jane Sjoman, Joan Sud and William Klecka.

Int. Soc. Set. /., Vol. XVII, No. 2, 1965

Social strategies of family formation 261

consequences for population composition and social structure on the one hand and for the rate and structure of population growth on the other hand. Aspects of strategies of family formation include factors such as (a) dating and courtship patterns, including ages of partners and social origins of partners; (b) age at marriage; (c) extent to which fertility control is attempted or practised; (d) n u m b e r of children born; (e) pattern of time intervals between births; (f ) patterns of family or marital dissolution; (g) patterns of remarriage; and others.

T h e statistical representation of the social strategy of family formation of, say, female members of a given birth cohort would be the multiple distribution of cohort members by all of the factors (a) to (g) simultaneously. However, in practice it is not ordinarily possible to represent all such variables simultaneously in a single multivariate analysis. Often, however, it is possible to plot the distribution of a real cohort over some one or few of these variables using data obtained from censuses, vital statistics, or sample surveys. Using such data, partial representations of the social strategies of family formation m a y be obtained for different cohorts; and these partial representations m a y be compared and used to analyse changes in social strategies of family formation over time and to analyse correlates of variations in strategies of family formation a m o n g die different countries, sub-populations, and social categories.

In this article attention is limited to two facets of family formation bearing upon population growth: age at marriage of females, and whether or not fertility control is attempted. T h e approach m a y be illustrated by considering the four strategies of family formation defined by two categories of age at marriage, say 'early marriage' and 'late marriage', in relationship to two categories of fertility control practice, say 'uncontrolled fertility' and 'controlled fertility':

Strategy A : early marriage, uncontrolled fertility Strategy B : early marriage, controlled fertility Strategy G : late marriage, uncontrolled fertility Strategy D : late marriage, controlled fertility.

In this simplified example, the distribution of a cohort of w o m e n over these four possible strategies of family formation is what is here referred to as the cohort's social strategy of family formation. It seems clear that cohorts would be characterized by quite high total or completed fertility if strategy A predominates or characterizes a large proportion of all the w o m e n in the cohort. Conversely, cohorts with large proportions of the total n u m ber of w o m e n characterized by strategy D would reflect quite low total or completed fertility; while cohorts with large proportions characterized by strategies B or C would have intermediate fertility.

T h e statistical representations of social strategies of family formation of different female birth cohorts which will be employed herein are, then, simply their (the cohorts') joint distributions by age at marriage and by fertility control characteristics. These, in turn, are derived from census statistics giving w o m e n classified by age at marriage and number of children

a6a J. Matras

ever born. The age-at-marriage data are obtained directly from the census statistics; while the numbers in each age-at-marriage subgroup attempting or not attempting fertility control are estimated indirectly by comparison of the respective parity (number of children born) distributions to those of a model high- or maximum-fertility population in which it is assumed that attempts to control marital fertility are completely absent.1 T h e rest of this article presents and compares such statistical representations of social strategies of family formation in Norway , Sweden, England and Wales, Ireland, the United States of America, and Canada.

International differences in social strategies of family formation

T h e joint distributions of female cohorts by age at marriage and by fertility control (C) or non-control (c), i.e., the statistical representations of social strategies of family formation, are shown in Table i (pages 264-5) for Norway , Sweden, England and Wales, Ireland, United States, and Canada. T h e data are shown also for cohorts classified by urban and rural residence at the time of the respective censuses. Examining first the data for urban and rural cohorts combined (total panels) and turning first to the marginal percentage distributions by age at marriage, it is clear that the North American cohorts are characterized by m u c h earlier marriage than all the others and that marriage is latest in the Irish cohort. In the United States cohort shown, no fewer than 27 per cent were married by age 20, half were married by age 22.5 (the median age at marriage, defined as the age at which half the group is married, half still unmarried), and all but about 8 per cent were married before reaching 30 years of age. In the Irish, English, and Norwegian cohorts only about 7-8 per cent, and in the Swedish cohort only 5 per cent, married prior to reaching age 20. In the English cohort about 18 per cent married at ages 30 or over; but in the Norwegian, Swedish, and Irish cohorts, the percentages marrying at ages 30 or over were no less than 24 per cent, 30 per cent, and 33 per cent respectively.

1. The number controlling or attempting control of fertility is estimated:

Ci = 1/2 S I Wtpii — W„ I i

where Ci = the estimated number of w o m e n aged 45 + marrying at age i and controlling fertility, or attempting—in any manner and with unspecified degree of success—to control fertility;

W(j = the number of w o m e n in the actual population aged 45 + w h o married at

age i and have parity ;';

Wi = ^] Wij — the total number of w o m e n aged 45 + who married at age i\ 1

pil = the probability, in a model maximum-fertility population, that a w o m a n marrying at age i will have exactly j live births by age 44;

Wipu = expected W¡j if the fertility conditions, i.e., absence of any fertility control attempts, of the model population were characteristic of the actual population.

The model m a x i m u m fertility population chosen is the 1911 rural female population of Ireland. Details and discussion of the estimation procedure and choice of the model population are given in J. Matras, 'The social strategy of family formation: some variations in time and space', paper read at the 1964 Annual Meeting, Population Association of America, San Francisco, June 1964.

Social strategies of family formation 263

Considering next the marginal percentages in the control and non-control categories (C and c columns, respectively, Table 1), the range of variation between countries is quite considerable. S o m e 72 per cent of the 1902-6 English female cohort are estimated to have practised or attempted practice of fertility control, compared to only an estimated 35 per cent a m o n g the Irish 1891-1901 cohort and 40 per cent a m o n g the Norwegian 1881-85 cohort. It is of interest to note that the United States 1891-95 native white cohort and the Canadian 1887-96 cohort, which have almost surprisingly similar patterns of age at marriage, have quite dissimilar estimated percentages in the 'control' category: about 62 per cent for the United States cohorts compared to only 48 per cent for the Canadian cohort.

Looking n o w at the relationship between age at marriage and fertility control, it seems that in all countries w o m e n marrying at youngest ages, say under 25, are less likely to be in the 'control' category than are w o m e n marrying at older ages, though this relationship varies somewhat in the different countries. In the England and Wales cohort and the United States cohort the majority of w o m e n are in the 'control' category regardless of age at marriage; though especially in the United States cohort this 'majority' is m u c h more substantial among those marrying at ages 20 or over. In the Canadian and Swedish cohorts the majority of w o m e n marrying at ages under 25 are in the 'non-control' category, but the majority of w o m e n marrying at ages 25 or older are in the 'control' category; while in the Irish and Norwegian cohorts the majority of w o m e n are in the 'non-control' category regardless of age at marriage.

In general the median age at marriage is higher for w o m e n in the 'control' category than for those in the 'non-control' category, but the amount of difference varies in the different countries: for the Irish cohort, characterized generally by oldest ages at marriage, the median age at marriage of w o m e n in the 'control' category is almost two years older, 28.3 years, than that for w o m e n in the 'non-control' category, 26.6 years. But in the English cohorts there is hardly any difference at all between median ages at marriage of w o m e n in the 'control' category, 24.8 years, and those in the 'non-control' category, 24.7 years.

Urban-rural and size-of-place differences in

social strategies of family formation

For each country data are presented in Table 1 for urban and rural cohorts separately. It is of interest to note that both the extent and direction of urban-rural differences vary quite considerably in the different countries. In the 1951 data for England and Wales there are almost no urban-rural differences either with respect to age at marriage or with respect to estimated percentages in the 'control' and 'non-control' categories respectively. In the data for United States native white females the rural cohorts are characterized both by lower ages at marriage and by lower percentages in the 'control' category; while the Irish rural cohorts are characterized by

264 J. Matras

T A B L E I. Female birth cohorts with completed fertility, by age at marriage and control (C) or non-control (c) of fertility (percentage distributions): Norway, Sweden, England and Wales, Ireland, United States, and Canada; urban and rural.

Age at marriage (C)

Total

M Total (C)

Urban

M Total (C)

Rural

M Total

Norway, rgsoi1—cohort born 1871-75

Total 28.5 71.5 100.0 37.9 62.1 100.0 24.9 75.1 100.0

Under

20-24

25-29

30 +

Median

20

age

0.7 11.6

7-5 8.7

27.0

51 35-7 16.2

14-5

25-1

5-8 47-3

23-7 23.2

25.6

1.2 17.0

9-8 9-9

26.6

4.2 30.6

14-9 12.4

25.2

5-4 47.6

24.7

22.3

25-7

0.6 9-6 6-5 8.2

27.4

5-4 37-7 16.7

15-3

25-1

6.0

47-3 23.2

23-5

25.6

Sweden, 19352—cohort born 1880-go

Total 51.9 48.1 100.0 60.4 39.6 100.0 47.1 52.9 100.0

Under

20-24

25-29

30 +

Median ;

20

age

2.1 18.0

16.0

15.8

26.8

3-3 17-9

I3-1

13.8

26.1

5-4 35-9 29.1 29.6

26.5

2.1 20.6

19-3 18.4

26.9

2.1

'3-5 10.4

13.6

27.0

4.2

34-1

29-7 32.0

27.0

2.1 16.9

14.0

14.1

26.6

4.0 20.3

14.7

139

25-7

6.1 37-2 28.7

28.0

26.2

England and Wales, igsi3—cohort born igos-6

Total 72.1 27.9 100.0 72.9 27.1 100.0 70.1 2g.9 100.0

Under 20 20-24 25-29 30+

5-4 32.2

22.8

11.7

3-1 11.8

7-1 5-9

8-5 44.0

29-9 17.6

5-0 32.6

23-4

II-9

2-9 11.4

6.9

5-9

7-9 44.0

30-3 17.8

5-4 29-9 22 .2

12.6

3-2 12.1

7.8 6.8

8.6 42.0

30.0

'9-4

Median age 24.8 24.6 24.7 24.8 24.7 24.8 24.9 24.9 24.9

Norway: Det Statistiske Centralbyra, Folketellingen i Norge, i desember 1920. Sjette hefte, Barnetallet i norske ekteskap [Census of 1 December 1920: VI. Fertility, of Marriages]. Table 3. (Kristiania: I K o m -misjon Hos H . Aschehoug & Co., 1923). Age-at-marriage groups are 'Under 20*; '20-25*; '26-29'; a nd '30 + *. Median age at marriage calculated from more detailed age-at-marriage groups than are shown here. Data are for all married women. Sweden: Statistiska Centralbyran, Sarskilda Folkrakningen 1935I36. VI. Partiella Folkrakningen i Mars 1936: Barnantal Och Doda Barn i Aktenskapen [Recensement de la population en 1935-36. VI. Le recensement partiel de la population en mars 1936; Nombre d'enfants et enfants décédés dans les mariages]. Table 13. (Stockholm: Kungl. Boktryckeriet. P. A. Norsted & Soner, 1939). Includes all married women with husbands present. United Kingdom: General Register Office, Census 1951 England and Wales Fertility Report. Table C. 1. (London: H . M . Stationery Office, 1959). Includes women married once and enumerated with their husbands.

Social strategies of family formation 265

Age at marriage

Total

(C) M Total

Urban ('Metropolitan'4)

(C) M Total (C)

Rural

M

Ireland, 1946s"—cohort born i8gi-igoi.

Total 35.2 64.8 100.0 40.1 59.9 100.0 32.0 68.0 100.0

Under 20-24

25-29 30+

Median ;

20

age

1-7 8.7

10.8 14.0

28.3

5-88 20.4

19-4 19.2

26.6

7-5 29.1 30.2

33-2

27.a

2.4 12.4 12.3 13.0

27.1

7-3 21.7

17-9 13.0

25-3

9-7 34-1 30.2 26.0

26.0

1.4 6.6 9-b

14.4

29.2

5-1 '9-5 20.7

22.7

27-3

6-5 26.1

30-3 37-1

27-9

United States, 1940*—native White, cohort born i8gi-gs

Total 62.4 37.6 100.0 69.3 30.7 100.0 51.0 49.0 100.0

Under 20

20-24

25-29 30+

Median age

14.7

30.0 12.7

5-o

22.8

12.3 16.6 6.0 2-7

22 .0

27.0

46.6 18.7

7-7

22.5

13.8

33-8

15-5 6.2

23.1

8.3 13.4

6.x 2-9

22.6

22.1 47.2 21.6

9-1

23.0

'5-2 24.8 8.0 3.0

22.1

19-9 20.7

5-8 2.6

21.i

35-1 45-5 13.8

5-6

21.6

Canada, 1341'—cohort born 1887-96

Total 48.2 51.8 100.0 54.4 45.6 100.0 39.4 60.6 100.0

Under 20-24 25-29 30 +

Median

20

age

7-9 21.7 12.2

6.4

23-7

15.0

21.9

9-7 5-2

22.5

22.9

43-6 21.9 11.6

23.1

9.0 24-5

13-9 7.0

23-7

12.0

194 9-3 4-9

22.8

2 1 . 0

43-9 23.2 11.9

23-3

6-3 17-7 9-8 5-6

23.8

19-5

25-4 10.3

5-4

22.1

25.8

43-1 20.1 11.0

22.8

4. For Ireland, 'Metropolitan' comprises the four County Boroughs and Dun Laoghaire Borough. 'Rural' includes all places with fewer than 200 inhabitants.

5. Ireland: Central Statistics Office, Census of Population of Ireland,\iç46. Vol. IX. Fertility of Marriage. Table 7. (Dublin: The Stationery Office, 1953). Includes all married women.

6. United States: Bureau of the Census, Census of Population, 1940. Special Reports, Differential Fertility, 1940 and igio: Women by Number of Children Ever Born. Table 21. {Washington: Government Printing Office, 1945). Includes women married once, husband present.

7. Canada: Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Eighth Census of Canada, 1941. Vol. III. Ages of the Population. Table 51. (Ottawa: Edmond Cloutier, 1946). Includes all women ever married.

266 J. Matras

somewhat lower percentages in the 'control' category but by considerably higher ages at marriage.

In the 1920 data for Norway, the 1935 data for Sweden, and the 1941 data for Canada, ages at marriage of rural cohorts differ but very little from those of urban cohorts in the same countries; but in each of the countries the percentages of rural w o m e n practising or attempting practice of fertility control (i.e., in the 'control' category) are considerably lower than for urban w o m e n .

Thus there are not inevitably differences between urban and rural cohorts in extent of practice of fertility control, as evidenced by the case of England and Wales; but where urban-rural differences in extent of fertility control practices are found, they appear always to indicate relatively more frequent practice or attempted practice of fertility control a m o n g urban than among rural cohorts. By contrast, the urban-rural differences with respect to age at marriage m a y be either altogether non-existent, as in the case of England, Norway, Sweden, and Canada; or such differences m a y show earlier marriage among the rural cohorts than a m o n g urban cohorts, as in the United States; or they m a y show later marriage a m o n g rural than a m o n g urban cohorts, as in Ireland. S o m e trends in urban-rural differences over time in social strategies of family formation are reviewed briefly in Section V below.

Data on differences in social strategies of family formation of cohorts classified by size of urban place of residence are available for the several countries but are not presented here. In general, the differences observable between urban and rural cohorts are repeated as size-of-place or size-of-city differences: in England, where there are no substantial urban-rural differences, there are no size-of-place differences either. By contrast, in the United States, where rural w o m e n marry earlier and are relatively less frequently in the 'control' category, the cities are characterized by older ages at marriage and by higher percentages in the 'control' category the larger their populations.

Socio-economic status and subcultural differences in

social strategies of family formation

Three examples of data showing socio-economic status and subcultural differences in social strategies of family formation are shown in Table 2. For England and Wales, where urban-rural and size-of-place-of-residence differences were seen to be almost nil, socio-economic status or occupational group differences appear both in patterns of age at marriage and in extent of practice of fertility control. The professional (social status I) group is characterized both by relatively late marriage (less than 3 per cent marrying under 20, but almost 23 per cent marrying at ages 30 and over) and by highest percentage (78 per cent) in the 'control' category. At the opposite end of the social status scale, the wives of unskilled workers (social status V ) married relatively earliest (almost 13 per cent marrying before

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age 20, and less than 18 per cent marrying at ages 30 or over) and include the smallest percentage (63 per cent) estimated to have practised or attempted practice of fertility control.

Fertility data for Irish w o m e n are given separately for Catholic and non-Catholic w o m e n in the 1946 Census materials; and statistical representations of social strategies of family formation could be derived separately for Catholic and non-Catholic cohorts. Not surprisingly, the estimated percentage of the non-Catholic cohort attempting fertility control (58 per cent) is very m u c h higher than the percentage of the corresponding Catholic cohort (34 per cent) in the 'control' category. In the non-Catholic cohort w o m e n marrying before age 20 were about equally divided between the 'control' and 'non-control' categories; but of those marrying at age 20 and over a substantial majority were in the 'control' category. By contrast, most w o m e n in the Catholic cohort are in the 'non-control' category, regardless of age at marriage. However, although the ratio of 'non-controllers' to 'controllers' is more than 3 to 1 a m o n g Catholic w o m e n marrying under 20, a m o n g those marrying at ages 30 or over the ratio of 'non-controllers' to 'controllers' is less than 1% to 1. T h e patterns of age at marriage of the Catholic and non-Catholic cohorts differ m u c h less spectacularly than does the extent of fertility control. Both Catholic and non-Catholic w o m e n are characterized by quite late marriage. A m o n g the non-Catholic cohort, somewhat lower proportions married at youngest ages (under 20) and at highest ages (over 30) than was the case for the cohort of Catholic w o m e n .

T h e 1940 United States Census data permit comparisons between native White and Negro cohorts. It is seen in Table 2 that the Negro cohort was characterized by very m u c h earlier marriage, and by considerably less frequent practice of fertility control. Median age at marriage in the Negro cohort was 20.9 years, compared to 22.5 years in the native White cohort. N o fewer than 43 per cent of the Negro w o m e n were married before age 20, compared to 27 per cent a m o n g the White cohort. About half (51 per cent) of the Negro cohort were estimated to be in the 'control' category, compared to 62 per cent of the native White cohort.

T h e interpretation of socio-economic status and subcultural differences in social strategies of family formation demands particular caution. Usually —though not in every single country—the data are based upon responses by w o m e n married once and living throughout their fertile ages with their husbands. Presumably different patterns of age at marriage and of practice of fertility control would be observed for w o m e n in less stable marriages, e.g., w o m e n separated, divorced, widowed, or married more than once; and it is well known that stability of marriage tends to vary among the socio-economic status and subcultural groups. Accordingly, the biases introduced by study of w o m e n in stable marriages only probably vary from one group to the next. But details of the extent and direction of such bias can be plotted only with m u c h more detailed data than are n o w available.

Social strategies of family formation 269

Changes over time in social strategies of family formation:

intercohort and intercensal differences

T h e extraction and use of census data for birth cohorts to represent social strategies of family formation permits two types of time comparisons. T h e comparison of successive cohorts or age groups reported in any single census and comparison of cohorts described in censuses carried out at different times both allow analysis of change over time in marriage and family formation patterns. Data bearing upon time changes in two indexes of social strategies of family formation, median age at marriage and estimated percentage practising fertility control, are presented in Table 3 for the six countries considered here.

T h e data for Ireland, the United States, and Canada derive from a single census in each country and are obtained by comparing statistical representations of social strategies of family formation for w o m e n in separate age groups, e.g., 45-49 and 65-74 in the case of the United States. T h e data for Norway and Sweden are from separate, albeit successive, population censuses; and the data for Great Britain are from widely separate censuses.

T h e longest time series are for England and Wales and Great Britain, and include data from the very famous and very detailed fertility investigation carried out in connexion with the 1911 Census of England and Wales; from the sample Family Census of Great Britain carried out in 1946; and from the 1951 Census of England and Wales. It is clear from these series that, while the estimated percentage controlling or attempting control of fertility increases in each successive female cohort shown—from 20 per cent of the cohort born in 1831 -45 to 72 per cent of the cohort born 1902-6— the median age at marriage has remained remarkably stable and does not depart from the range, 24.3 years to 25.3 years.

In the same table these indexes are shown for wives of professional and of manual wage-earners respectively born in the periods 1870-84, 1880-94, and 1890-99. In the higher status 'professionals' wives' cohort, more than two-thirds (67 per cent) of the oldest cohort were in the 'control' category, and in the youngest high-status cohort this fraction increases to three-fourths. But in the lower status group, the wives of manual wage-earners, the percentage in the 'control' categories increases from 48 per cent a m o n g the eldest cohort to no less than 62 per cent a m o n g the youngest cohort. Thus a certain convergence of extent of practice of fertility control is seen a m o n g the different social status categories, with the lower status group characterized initially by relatively low percentages in the 'control' category but by a very rapid increase in this percentage over successive cohorts. In both social status groups shown, age at marriage changes but little over successive cohorts, and the substantial difference between the status groups is retained over time.

T h e intervals between censuses for which the data for N o r w a y and Sweden are shown are quite short. Nevertheless, substantial increases in

27o J. Matras

T A B L E 3. Median age at marriage and estimated percentages controlling fertility; Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom, Ireland, United States, and Canada: inter-cohort and intercensal comparisons.

Country, census, and cohort

Norway

1920 Census1

Born 1871-75

1930 Census2

Born 1881-85

Sweden

1930 Census3

Born 1870-85

1935 Census4

Born 1880-90

Canada

1941 Census5

Born before 1876 Born 1887-96

United States

Native White (1940 Born 1866-75 Born 1891-95

Negro (1940 Census)' Born 1866-75 Born 1891-95

Total

Median age at

marriage (years)

25.6

25-7

25-9

26.5

23-7 23.1

Census)* 22.7 22.5

r

20.6

20.9

Per cent in 'control* category

28.5

39-8

39-3

51-9

36.5 48.2

54-6 62.4

40.7

50-9

Urban

Median age at

marriage (years)

25-7

26.7

27.0

23.8

23-3

23.2 23.0

Per cent in 'control' category

37-9

49-3

60.4

40.8

54-4

61.8

69-3

Rural

Median age at

marriage (years)

25.6

25-4

26.2

23-5 22.8

22.2 21 .9

Per cent in 'control' category

24-9

35-3

47.1

30.7 39-4

48.7

55-4

1. Norway: Det Statistiske Centralbyra, Foiketellingen i Norge, i desember 1Q20. Sjette hefte, Bametallet i norske ekteskap [Census of i December 1920: VI. Fertility of marriages]. Table 3. (Kristiania: I K o m -misjon Hos H . Aschehoug & Co., 1923). Age-at-marriage groups are 'Under 20'; '20-25'; '26-29'; aQd '30 + *. Median age at marriage calculated from more detailed age-at-marriage groups than are shown here. Data are for all married women.

2. Norway: Det Statistiske Centralbyra, Foiketellingen i Norge 1 desember 1930. Niende hefte, Bametallet i norske ekteskap. (Census of 1 December 1930: IX. Fertility of Marriages) (Oslo: I Kommisjon Hos H . Aschehoug & Co., 1935) Table 3.

3. Sweden: Statistiska Centralbyran, Folkrakningen den 31 December 1930. IX. Aktenskap och Barn an tal (Recensement de la population en 1930. IX. Mariages et nombre d*enfants) (Stockholm: Kungl. Boktry-ckeriet. P. A. Norstedt & Soner, 1939) Table 16.

4. Sweden: Statistiska Centralbyran, Sarskilda Folkrakningen 1935I36. VI. Partidla Folkrakningen i Mars 1936: Barnantal Och Doda Barn i Aktenskapen [Recensement de la population en 1935-36. VI. Le recensement partiel de la population en mars 1936; Nombre d'enfants et enfants décédés dans les mariages]. Table 13. (Stockholm: Kungl. Boktryckeriet. P. A . Norsted & Soner, 1939). Includes all married women with husbands present.

Social strategies of family formation 271

Country, census, and cohort

England and Wales

1911 Census8

Born 1831-45 Born 1841-55 Born 1851-65 Born 1861-70

Median age at

marriage (years)

25-3 24-3 24.7

24-5

Total

Per cent in

category

I9.6 24.4

32.7 42.6

Professionals' wives

Median at c e n ^ l n

marriage control

(years) cateS°ry

Manual wage-earners'

M e d i a n Per cent in a g e a t 'control'

marriage , category

(years)

Great Britain

1946 Family Census* Born 1870-80 24.8 Born 1880-94 25.1 Born 1890-99 24.9

53-4 60.3 66.2

2 7 . 0

27 .2

26.5

67-3 72.2

75-3

24.1 24.4

24-3

48.5 56.2 62.4

England and Wales

1951 Census10

Born 1902-6 24.7 72.1

Catholic Non-Catholic

Ireland

1946 Census11

Born 1876-86 Born 1881-gi Born 1886-96 Born 1891-1901

29 .2

28.7 28.1 27.2

24.0

29.7 32.3 35-2

29-4 28.8 28.1

27.2

22.2

27-9 3°-5 33-9

28.4 28 .0

27-5 27.0

45-9 50-9

55-0

57-7

. Canada: Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Eighth. Census of Canada, 1941. Vol. III. Ages of the Population. Table 51. (Ottawa: Edmond Cloutier, 1946). Includes all women ever married.

. United States: Bureau of the Census, Census of Population, 1940. Special Reports, Differential Fertility, IÇ40 and IÇIO: Women by Number of Children Ever Born. Table 21. (Washington: Government Printing Office, 19,45)- Includes women married once, husband present.

. Ibid., Table 22. 1. United Kingdem: General Register Office, Census of England and Wales, 1911. Vol. XIII. Fertility of

Marriage, Parts I and II. (London: H . M . Stationery Office, 1917 and 1923). Part II. Table 19. 1. United Kingdem : :Royal Commission on Population, Papers. Vol. VI. The Trend and Pattern of

Fertility in Great Britain, A Report on the Family Census of 1946, by D . V. Glass and E . Grebenik, Parts I and II. (London: H . M . Stationery Office, 1954) Part II. Tables A1-A103.

1. United Kingdom: General Register Office, Census 1951 England and Wales Fertility Report. Table C. 1. (London: H . M . Stationery Office, 1959). Includes women married once and enumerated with their husbands.

. Ireland: Central Statistics Office, Census of Population of Ireland, 1946. Vol. IX. Fertility of Marriage, Table 9. (Dublin: The Stationery Office, 1953). Includes all married women.

272 J. Matras

extent of practice of fertility control are apparent. In the data for Sweden the urban-rural differences seem to be retained both with respect to median age at marriage (increasing somewhat for both urban and rural cohorts) and with respect to estimated percentages in the 'control' category (increasing substantially for both urban and rural cohorts). O f the Canadian cohorts shown the younger one is characterized both by marriage at earlier ages and by relatively more frequent practice of fertility control. Urban-rural differences with respect to age at marriage actually increase somewhat over successive cohorts, as do urban-rural differences in estimated percentages in the 'control' category.

Similarly, in the data for the United States native White w o m e n median age at marriage declines somewhat over the successive cohorts, and the percentage in the 'control' category increases, with urban-rural differences preserved approximately over the successive cohorts. In the Negro cohorts, median age at marriage increases somewhat, from 20.6 to 20.9 years, and the percentage in the 'control' category increases quite substantially, from 41 per cent to 51 per cent. Thus the Negro-White differences in the United States cohorts—both with respect to age at marriage and with respect to relative frequency of practice of fertility control—diminish somewhat over the successive cohorts recorded in the 1940 census.

It is of interest to mention that for the United States native White cohorts, the decline in median age at marriage has been shown in these data to be associated with increasing percentages practising or attempting practice of fertility control.1 T h e decreasing age at marriage occurs because of increases in the proportions marrying at ages under 20 years and at ages 20-24; but these increases are entirely in the 'control' category. Indeed the proportions marrying at ages under 20 and 20-24 m t n e 'non-control' category actually diminish over successive cohorts.

Finally, the successive Irish cohorts are seen to be characterized by declining, but still very high, ages at marriage and by considerably increasing, but still quite low, percentages practising or attempting practice of fertility control. T h e declining age at marriage is evident for both Catholic and non-Catholic female cohorts and, as in the case of the United States cohorts, m a y be shown to be associated with increasing extent of fertility control practices. Extent of practice of fertility control is initially very m u c h greater in non-Catholic cohorts than in the Catholic cohorts; and the difference is preserved over the successive cohorts shown.

Relationship to sample survey and other

special field studies of fertility control

Only very limited comparisons of these findings with those of field investigations designed to study fertility control practices are possible or of interest. There are several reasons for the non-comparability of the two

1. Ibid.

Social strategies of family formation 273

approaches. In the first place, the estimated percentages in the 'control' category reflect any deviations from the hypothetical fertility 'expected' on the basis of the maximum-fertility model population, including those deriving from differences in extent of pregnancy wastage, institutionalized abstinence or separation of marriage partners, etc., as well as practice of birth control; whereas special field investigations typically record only those w o m e n reporting actual practice of some form of contraception as belonging to their 'control' categories. In the second place, the present studies are subject only to the same errors to which census data are subject, and not to the problems of validity, reliability, and response variability attending interview instruments directly seeking information from individuals regarding practice of or attitudes toward contraception. Thirdly, these data have usually very m u c h m o r e scope, in terms of population studied; while field studies very often focus upon special sub-population or population categories. Moreover none of the field studies examines age at marriage and fertility control characteristics jointly and in relationship to one another, and none views these two variables explicitly as facets of more complex social patterns or strategies of family formation. Nevertheless, some comparisons with field studies in the United States and in Great Britain are examined in the previously-cited paper; these m a y be summarized here briefly.

In a study of about 3,000 'upper middle class' United States w o m e n reported in 1940 by Riley and White, 83 per cent of all urban w o m e n —including 84 per cent in the largest (over 100,000 inhabitants) cities and 81 per cent in the smaller (under 100,000 inhabitants) cities—and 71 per cent of all rural w o m e n reported past practice of contraception.1 O f urban w o m e n aged 35-45, i.e., with 'almost completed' fertility, 76 per cent reported past practice of contraception. A 1955 American study of family planning is comparable in scope to the census. O f 2,700 white United States wives aged 18 to 39 years w h o were interviewed in the Growth of American Families ( G A F ) study, 70 per cent reported having used some method of contraception specifically to avoid conception ('motive users') and an additional eleven per cent reported 'douching for cleanliness only', totalling 81 per cent 'action users' of contraception.2 O f w o m e n aged 35-39 (those closest to 'completed fertility' in this study), 65 per cent were 'motive users' of contraception, including 74 per cent of those residing in the suburbs of the largest cities, 69 per cent in both small (2,500 to 50,000 inhabitants) cities and large cities (over 50,000 inhabitants), and 52 per cent of farm respondents.

T w o large-scale studies of family limitation have been carried out in Great Britain, the first reported by Lewis-Faning in 1949 and the second reported by Rowntree and Pierce in 1961.1 T h e Lewis-Faning study found

1. J. W . Riley and M . White, 'The use of various methods of contraception', American Sociological Review, Vol. 5 (December 1940), p. 890-903, and especially Table 5.

2. R . Freedman, P . K . Whelpton and A . A . Campbell, Family Planning, Sterility and Population Growth. N e w York, McGraw-Hill Book Co., 1959.

274 J. Matras

that about two-thirds (66 per cent) of the w o m e n marrying in 1935-39 reported having practised some type of contraception, compared to two-fifths (40 per cent) of those married in the period 1910-19 and less than one-sixth (15 per cent) of those marrying before 1910. A m o n g wives of professional, business, and non-manual workers, 26 per cent of those married before 1910 and 73 per cent of those marrying in 1935-39 reported practice of contraception; and of wives of unskilled manual workers, only 4 per cent of those marrying before 1910, but 54 per cent of those marrying in 1935-39, reported practice of contraception.

In the Rowntree and Pierce study, about 73 per cent of those marrying in the period 1940-49, compared to about 54 per cent of those marrying in 1929 or earlier, reported past practice of contraception. O f those marrying prior to 1920, some 64 per cent of those in the non-manual group and 40 per cent of those in the unskilled manual group reported practice of contraception; but of those married in the 1940-49 period, 74 per cent of w o m e n in the non-manual group and 71 per cent of those in the unskilled manual group reported practice of contraception.

Thus the United States and Great Britain survey findings are fairly consistent with the census-based data shown here. Both the urban-rural and socio-economic differences are reflected in both types of data, and the trends toward diminishing differentials with respect to extent of practice of fertility control also appear in both types of data. But the field survey materials have not thus far included data bearing upon marriage patterns, neither independently nor in connexion with fertility control practices.

Summary and concluding remarks

In the six countries compared, median age at marriage ranged from 22.5 years in the United States to 27.2 years in Ireland. T h e estimated percentages of w o m e n ever practising or attempting practice of fertility control ranged from 35 per cent for the Irish cohort born in 1891-1901 to 72 per cent for the England and Wales cohort born in 1902-6. Urban-rural differences are neither universal nor necessarily of similar extent and direction where they do exist.

Social status and subcultural differences were shown between socioeconomic status category cohorts in England and Wales, between White and Negro cohorts in the United States, and between Catholic and non-Catholic cohorts in Ireland. In England and Wales, median age at marriage and estimated percentage practising fertility control are directly related to socio-economic status. Catholic cohorts in Ireland are characterized by later marriage than are non-Catholic cohorts; but non-Catholic cohorts

I. E . Lewis-Faning, Report on an Inquiry into Family Limitation and Its Influence on Human Fertility During the Past Fifty Years. (Papers of the Royal Commission on Population, Vol. 1.) London, H . M . Stationery Office, 1949; and G . Rowntree and R . M . Pierce, 'Birth control in Britain', Parts I and II. Population Studies. Vol. 15. Nos. 1 and 2 (July, November, 1961) and especially Part II, Appendix I, Tables 8 and 11.

Social strategies of family formation 875

are characterized by m u c h higher percentages in the 'control' category: about 58 per cent of the non-Catholic, compared to 34 per cent of the Catholic, cohorts studied were estimated to be in the group practising fertility control. A m o n g the United States cohorts, native White w o m e n marry considerably later than Negro w o m e n ; and the native White cohorts are characterized by higher percentages practising fertility control than are the Negro cohorts.

Finally, shifts over time in social strategies of family formation were indicated by comparison of the two main indexes, median age at marriage and estimated percentage controlling or attempting control of fertility. In England and Wales age at marriage is seen to have remained stable, while the estimated percentage practising fertility control increases very markedly a m o n g successive cohorts, from under 20 per cent of the cohort born in 1831-45 to 72 per cent of the cohort born 1902-6. In the other countries median age at marriage is also seen to be relatively stable over time and estimated percentages controlling fertility increase substantially over time.

In Sweden and in the United States, the urban-rural differences in extent of practice of fertility control are stable or diminish slightly in time, but in Canada urban-rural differences increase somewhat over successive cohorts. In the data from Great Britain the social status group differences between median ages at marriage are retained over time, although the differences between estimated percentages in the 'control' category diminish substantially. Lastly, though practice of fertility control is seen to increase both a m o n g Catholic and non-Catholic cohorts in Ireland, there is no apparent convergence or diminishing of differences.

T h e approach applied here to the study of social strategies of family formation is applicable to any population group for which data giving age at marriage and number of children born to identifiable female cohorts are available. It is hoped that additional research can extend the comparisons both geographically and in time.

There is great need for hypotheses to account for and predict variations in social strategies of family formation. Increasingly it seems evident that such hypotheses must concern structural features of the societies and subcultures in question and not the personal traits of individual members or of couples. It is necessary to inquire w h y some societies are characterized by early and others by late marriage; and w h y some societies are characterized by indifference, if not actual hostility, to control of fertility and population. Possibly some progress in this direction can be m a d e through comparative analysis of large numbers of societies, collectivities, and subcultures variously located in time and in geographic and social space.

Dr. Judah Matras is Instructor at the E . Kaplan School of Economics and Social Sciences of the Hebrew University, Jerusalem. He has recently served as Research Associate at the Population Research and Training Centre of the University of Chicago, and has lately published several articles on occupational mobility and family formation in Israel.

IL Population and policy

The economics of health in conditions of

low population growth

The example of Sierra Leone

David Carney

The author's comparison of health and education expenditures made during the period igso-6o by the Government of Sierra Leone, a country with high infant \mortality and low rate of growth of a predominantly illiterate rural population reveals that, contrary to the general belief, investment in health is relatively more expensive, in terms of local and offshore costs, than investment in education or even in directly productive economic services. He concludes that for Sierra Leone, and other African countries with a similar demographic pattern, investment in health, though expensive, is a prerequisite to profitable investment in education and increase in productivity.

This article summarizes the main finding of m y recent study of health expenditures in Sierra Leone. In view of the fact that emphasis on 'investment in m a n ' with respect to education and training has always been predominant amongst social goals in newly independent countries, and developing countries generally, the results of the study are particularly interesting. They enable us, in the context of the recent population census of the country taken in April 1963, to assess, ex post facto, both the past pattern of health expenditures and the proposed investment allocation on health services, as compared respectively with the past pattern of expenditures and the proposed investment allocations on education.

Population growth and its implications for economic development and the health services

T h e census of the population of Sierra Leone which began on 1 April 1963 and was completed in four to six weeks disclosed a figure of 2,160,000 as compared with an estimate of 1,858,000 in 1948. Assuming the 1948 estimate to have been fairly accurate, the population is seen to have increased over the fifteen-year period at a rate of approximately 1.01 per cent per a n n u m , and will probably continue to increase at this rate or a little more, say 1.05 per cent, over the next five to ten years.

F r o m the over-all development point of view this slow increase of the

Int. Soc. Sei. / . , Vol. XVII, No. 2, 1965

378 D . Carney

population has the advantage that Sierra Leone does not at present face a population pressure problem, the average density per square mile being 77 over a total area of 27,796 square miles. O n the other hand, there is a relative shortage of manpower , the total labour force being estimated at around 734,000, some 80 per cent of which at least is employed in agriculture. This leaves about 146,000 or less for non-agricultural employment.

Investigation of the causes of this slow growth of population reveals that a high rate of infant mortality is probably a primary factor. It is estimated that of every 1,000 children born at least 150 die annually.1 In addition, an unknown number of the population die at later ages owing to inadequate medical and health facilities throughout the country. Thus the absence of population pressure, ironically, is due, to a large extent, to the inadequacies of the health services of the country. T h e high rate of infant mortality is a generally k n o w n fact, but its impact has only been clearly revealed with the returns of the recent census of the population.

Allocation of development expenditure to

health services, 1950-60

T h e absence of population data in the intervening years since 1948 and the obvious absence of pressure on the land has led in the past to an inadequate recognition of the gravity of the health problem of the country. Additionally, the general absence of vital statistics for the country as a whole has obscured the urgency of the problem. As a result, in the allocation of'investment in m a n ' as between health, education and welfare no rational criterion has been followed in the past. For example, no thought was given to the probable effects of the pattern of allocation on productivity in the short run or in the long.

From 1950 to 1960-61 inclusive, development expenditures totalled £24,163,000. O f this total £5,259,000 or 21 per cent was spent on the provision and expansion of social services. This percentage m a y seen small relative to the social needs of the population. Considering, however, that the cost of social services could only be comfortably borne on an expanding economic base the m u c h greater percentage spent on non-social services m a y seem justified.

It is, however, in the allocation of expenditures between the segments of the social services that, in the light of the implication of the recent census, an excessive lopsidedness in favour of education is seen to have occurred. O f the nearly £5.3 millions spent on the social services nearly £4.4 million or 86.6 per cent went into education, £783,000 or 14.9 per cent into medical and health services, the rest, or 1.5 per cent, into social welfare.

1. In Freetown, the capital city, where alone birth and death registration is compulsory, infant mortality was reduced rapidly from 148.4 per thousand in 1950 to 125 per thousand in 1955, then less rapidly to 121.6 per thousand in i960.

The economics of health in Sierra Leone 279

Trend of health expenditures, 1950-60

During the decade 1950-60 development expenditures on the health care services fluctuated considerably in accordance, generally, with fluctuations in total development revenue and expenditure. Health expenditures rose from £44,000 in 1950 to £119,000 in 1960-61, giving an annual average (on a calendar-year basis) of £59,000 for the period 1950-60, or 3 per cent of total development expenditures. This represented an annual rate of growth of expenditure of about 10.5 per cent, allowance being m a d e for the small base from which the increase occurred.

By comparison, the rest of the social services took one-fifth of all development expenditures during the period, rising from £200,000 in 1950 to £620,000 in 1960-61, an annual rate of growth of about 12 per cent. Most of this expenditure went into education which received an average annual allocation of 18 per cent of all development expenditures, or 75 per cent of social expenditures. Thus educational expenditures rose from £167,000 in 1950 to £514,000 in 1960-61, an annual rate of growth of 11.9 per cent.

Recurrent expenditures on health services averaged 9 per cent of total government recurrent expenditures in the calendar period 1950-60, rising from £234,000 in 1950 to £909,000 in 1960-61, an annual rate of growth of 14.5 per cent. In comparison the annual rate of growth for social services as a whole was 19.1 per cent (rising from £629,000 in 1950 to £3,615,000 in 1960-61), for education 24.4 per cent (rising from £186.000 in 1950 to £1,648,000 in 1960-61) and 18.9 per cent for total government recurrent expenditures which rose from £2,091,000 in 1950 to £11,827,000 in 1960-61.

Financing of health services, 1950-60

Table 1 (overleaf) summarizes the sources of development financing for the health services from 1950 to 1960-61. While an average of 3 per cent of all development expenditures during this period went into health services, 42 per cent of health expenditures was financed by grants from the United Kingdom Colonial Development and Welfare Fund, leaving 58 per cent to be met from local resources. T h e ratio of recurrent to capital expenditures was 9 : 1, as compared with a little over 3 : 1 for all development spending, 2.7 : 1 for education, and 3 : 1 for non-social (mostly directly productive) services.

Thus medical and health facilities are seen to have been relatively more expensive to maintain than educational facilities or directly productive economic services. Added to this aspect of cost is another, namely, the proportion of local to off-shore costs of providing these facilities. For all services, the ratio of local to off-shore costs in capital expenditures was 2 : 1, as compared to 1 x/2 : 1 for health facilities (Table 2). T h e comparable ratio for educational services was 2 : 1 and for economic services

28o D . Carney

T A B L E I . Sources of development finance and recurrent expenditure on medical and health services in Sierra Leone, 1950 to 1960-61.

Development expenditure Recurrent expenditure

Social services Medical and health

C . D . and W . grants 287 Local resources

Other social services (mostly education)

Non-social services

£'ooo

685 287 398

3773

16 301

20759

%

3

18.5

78.5

100.0

%

100.0

41-9 58.1

£'000

22 941

6 127

16 814 47053

69 994

%

8.8

24.0

67.2

100.0

%

100.0

26.7

73-3

Source: Sierra Leone Annual Financial Reports and Annual Estimates of Revenue and Expenditure.

i % : i. Health facilities were more expensive in terms of foreign exchange requirements than educational facilities, and as expensive as directly productive services. Practically all the off-shore costs of health facilities during die period and before have been financed by grants from the United K i n g d o m Colonial Development and Welfare F u n d . In particular, the off-shore costs of all health centres constructed during the same period have been so financed.

Taking altogether the cost of expanding and maintaining the various facilities (that is, the total of capital and recurrent costs) it is seen that during the period under review the ratio of local to off-shore costs for health facilities worked out at 23 : 1, as compared to 11 : 1 for all types of facilities, health as well as other (Table 2). T h e comparable ratios for other services are 11 : 1 for education (same as for all types of facilities taken together) and 7 % : 1 for directly productive services. Thus health facilities, as a group, are the most expensive to provide and maintain in terms of local currency requirements as well as foreign exchange.

It is probably for this reason that it has been m u c h easier to spend far more on education and economic services than on the health services of the

T A B L E 2. Average annual development and recurrent expenditures, local and ofF-shore costs of medical and health services in Sierra Leone, 1950 to 1960-61.

Recurrent costs of existing services Local costs of development programmes

Total local costs Off-shore costs of development programmes

Total expenditures 8 250 100.0 619 1

Source : Sierra Leone Annual Financial Reports and Annual Estimates of Revenue and Expenditure.

Total development expenditure

£'000

6363 I 191

7 554 696

%

77.1 14-5

91.6 8.4

Medical and health expenditure

£'000 %

557 90.1 36 5-8

593 95-8 26 4.2

The economics of health in Sierra Leone 281

country. A n important contributory factor is that in the field of medicine and health most of the professionals have to be trained, or obtained from abroad, and similarly all equipment has to c o m e from outside the country. For education, the position is a little easier since, apart from textbooks, reading and writing materials, and building materials (the position regarding which is the same for the health services) most staff can be trained and a good deal of equipment m a d e locally. For directly productive investment most of the labour required can be obtained locally, leaving the minority of skilled and managerial personnel to be imported. This explanation contains certain implications for the financing of health services in countries like Sierra Leone, chiefly, that ways and means must continually be sought to reduce some of the off-shore costs. Foreign grants from the British Government in the past have been an easy w a y of avoiding the impact of these costs on the foreign exchange reserves of the country. N o w that this source of assistance has been cut off since the country became politically independent in 1961, the Sierra Leone Government has been exploring alternative outside sources to fill in the gap. However, in this area of public expenditure where direct financial returns cannot be expected the task is by no means an easy one. There is, nevertheless, a ray of hope—perhaps not a very bright one. N o w that the International Development Association has turned its attention to investment in the social service field it m a y prove possible for countries like Sierra Leone to obtain financing for their health programmes if sound projects are presented.

Need to redress pattern of expenditure in h u m a n investment in favour of health services

There are obvious reasons w h y the pattern of expenditure on education and health m a y be considered unbalanced and in need of adjustment in favour of health services. Firstly, after the basic necessities—food, shelter and clothing—although closely bound u p with them, the health of the population comes next in importance. In the present stage of the Sierra Leone economy, formal education does not play a very significant part in the economic process, since the bulk of production is agricultural and mineral output and is the work of a largely illiterate and unskilled people working with traditional means and a primitive technology. For the most part, therefore, improvement of the skill and technology of the farmer and the miner, w h o constitute the majority of the population at the present time, depends more on practical demonstration of better methods than on formal institutional education which is beyond the reach of the majority of the present adult population; more on literacy campaigns, community development and audio-visual techniques to promote better living than on formal classes in arithmetic, history and geography.

Secondly, the majority of the present adult population being illiterate, increases in productivity must depend on better health and diet, given the efficacy of the demonstration of better methods and the provision in

282 D . Carney

agriculture of marketing and credit facilities, water control measures and improved transportation.

Thirdly, only as the population grows and with it the proportion of children and young persons does the d e m a n d for general education increase and therewith the chance of altering the structure of employment, the pattern of skills and the composition of the total output of the economy. Considering, however, the current high rate of infant mortality the growth of population and the d e m a n d for education can only occur with a rapid reduction in the infant mortality rate through the provision, extension and improvement of the health services.

Fourthly, it is a c o m m o n experience in m a n y African countries, including Sierra Leone, that outside of the urban areas where the influx of population from the countryside presses greatly on available educational facilities, investment in primary and secondary school facilities is generally under-utilized. Even though school enrolment m a y be 50 per cent (or very m u c h less) of the school-age population, according to estimates, it is usually difficult to increase enrolment rapidly.

All these considerations lead to one major conclusion, namely, that at the present time the progress and welfare of the people of Sierra Leone greatly depends on the improvement of their health and diet and the reduction of mortality. But this is just another w a y of saying that there is urgent need for increased expenditure on the provision, expansion and improvement of health (and nutrition) services relatively to expenditure on institutional forms of education.

In this respect, the current Ten-Year Plan of Sierra Leone1 gives an indication of the order of importance a m o n g social expenditures that is desirable: 21 per cent of total development expenditure (the largest allocation) is planned for the health services, 10.5 per cent for education and 1.6 per cent for social welfare. T h e pivotal point of the health programme is a project for the construction of a networtk of 146 additional health centres in the provinces where 91 per cent of the country's population reside. This project, if completed within the ten-year period of the Plan, should provide a health centre within a m a x i m u m distance of fifteen miles of any settled locality.

Conclusion

T h e above findings are relevant to m a n y other African countries apart from Sierra Leone. It is, of course, recognized that in most of the literature on underdevelopment the example most frequently cited is that of countries with a slow rate of growth of per capita income resulting from a fast rate of population growth. But, as Myint has pointed out,2 underdeveloped

1. D . Carney, Ten-Year Plan of Economic and Social Development for Sierra Leone, 1962/63-içyily2. Sierra Leone, Government Printer, 1962.

2. H . Myint, The Economics of the Developing Countries, London, Hutchinson and Co., Ltd., 1964, p. 11-14.

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countries are not all of the same type—beyond the broad fact of poverty c o m m o n to all of them—and the temptation to generalize from the most frequently cited case must therefore be resisted. This is particularly the case with Africa where quite a few countries have low rates of growth of population as well as of per capita income.

According to estimates taken from various United Nations publications1 at least ten2 of the forty-odd countries of Africa had annual rates of population growth below 1.5 per cent during the period from the mid-'fifties to the early 'sixties, in short, within the last decade. A n d of these ten countries about seven or more than half the number,3 including Sierra Leone, had rates of around 1 per cent or less. This last group of countries, located in the western, eastern and southern sub-regions of the continent, m a y be presumed to be countries of high mortality, the incidence of which tends to be heaviest a m o n g infants, given the present state of health facilities throughout most of contemporary Africa.

Investment in education and training is n o w generally recognized as an important type of social overhead necessary for the efficient productive performance of any society. However , as the case of Sierra Leone illustrates, in developing countries with high infant mortality, low population growth rates and a predominantly illiterate, rural population adequate investment in health services is often a prerequisite to profitable investment in education. Furthermore, increased expenditures on health services are likely to result in immediate gains to productivity while increased expenditures on education take time to yield similar results. W h a t is frequently little recognized, however, is that contrary to the general belief, investment in health can be more expensive in terms of local and offshore costs than investment in education, or even in directly productive economic services in the type of countries under discussion. Even so, as has been pointed out, the expenditure on health facilities would always be justified by the fact that immediate gains to the over-all productivity of labour and other types of investment are likely to follow.

1. African Statistics (Economic Commission for Africa), Demographic Yearbook, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, Statistical Yearbook.

2. Bechuanaland, Comoro Islands, Gambia, Guinea (Port.), Liberia, Rio Muni, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Somaliland (Fr.), Zanzibar and Pemba.

3. Bechuanaland, Comoro Islands, Gambia, Guinea (Port.), Sierra Leone, Somalia, Soma-liland (Fr.).

David Carney, formerly economic advisor to the Government of Sierra Leone ( ig6i-6¡), is

now with the United Nations African Institute for Economic Development and Planning, in

Dakar. He has previously contributed to this journal ( Vol. XVI, No. 3, 1964).

Migrations in Europe

Jacques Doublet

The liberalism of the nineteenth century in regard to population movements was followed by the restrictive attitudes of the inter-war years. Since 1946, the situation has again changed rapidly. Labour shortages in Western Europe have resulted in large-scale migration of workers, and policies have been adapted to economic needs. Regulations governing admittance, health, social security, etc., in the European Economic Community and O E C D member countries, are briefly , described. These represent the emergence of new attitudes to economic migrants, though they still leave certain problems unresolved, especially where workers from overseas are concerned.

T h e movements of m e n and their families are basically governed by two factors which, to a large extent, also explain the general development of such movements: the hope of finding a better world in which to live, and the attitude of States, which m a y promote or thwart a trend that begins quite spontaneously. W h a t is most striking about recent migrations is the very appreciable changes that have come about in a relatively very short time both in the direction and amount of migration and in the attitude of States towards it. T h e economic factor is at present of basic importance in migrations, and the European States, in the expansionist fever, are in quest of manpower, while, as A d a m Smith remarked, of all types of baggage, m a n is the most difficult to transport.

A period marked by a liberal attitude with regard to the movement of persons was succeeded by one in which States raised obstacles to migratory movements or sought to regulate them compulsorily. The obsessive fear of overpopulation gave way before the expansion of employment and substantial manpower needs.

T h e main features of the w a y in which the situation has developed show h o w unreliable forecasts are and h o w closely population movements are bound up with economics and politics; this explains the new aspects of the problems raised by migrations in Europe, in the second half of the twentieth century.

T h e nineteenth century will probably go d o w n in history as the age w h e n movements of people, and particularly Europeans, were facilitated

Int. Soc. Sei. J., Vol. XVII , No . 2, 1965

Migrations in Europe 285

by countries of emigration as well as by countries of immigration, the century when, in pursuance of liberal principles, m e n could exercise their natural rights without any efforts being m a d e by States to restrict or control their exercise: a m a n received wages in return for his labour and, in n e w places of work, seemed to have all kinds of opportunities open to him, although there were m a n y failures and the situation of newcomers was often wretched.

U p to the First World W a r , the free movement of persons and freedom to take up abode where one wished were generally recognized in most European States and in most trades and professions both for the wage-earner and the head of a business, the industrialist and the shopkeeper. T h e labour laws—which, it is true, were few in number—generally recognized the equality of national and foreign workers, at least on the territory of the same State.

T h e war of 1914, with the losses of h u m a n life it entailed and the aggravated nationalism it bred, seems to have brought this period to a close in the Western countries. Nations became anxious to preserve their h u m a n resources, for the benefit of their industries and for their military potential alike. They were alarmed by the possibility of their economic and ethnic balance being upset by uncontrolled movements of population; this explains the measures hampering the free movement of persons (passports, visas, compulsory labour permits, immigration quotas, prohibition on emigration), which took the place of a totally free and restricted labour market. T h e years following the First World W a r , however, saw fairly large-scale migrations, which were mostly due to transfers between certain countries under the terms of agreements, and to the special situation of France. O w i n g to the losses suffered during the war and the requirements of reconstruction, France was then a country to which entry was fairly easy. In 1936, w h e n its birth-rate was falling, there were more than three million foreigners in France; in 1947, the number of foreigners, naturalized citizens and French citizens of foreign origin (at least one of the parents having been a foreigner at some time in his or her life) was stated to be 4,600,000, which represented 12 per cent of the French population.

T h e economic crisis was to bring about a decline in migration. T h e policy of self-sufficiency followed during the years preceding the Second World W a r also caused a number of countries, particularly those which were equipping their industries for the production of armaments, to repatriate their nationals.

T h e movements of population that took place during the war were immediately afterwards followed by a general flow of migration from Eastern to Western European countries.

M a n p o w e r needs fairly soon proved to be so considerable that migrations to countries on the other side of the Atlantic were not on so large a scale as had been feared in certain quarters; had they been so, they might have jeopardized the recovery of Europe. T h e countries of Eastern Europe have so far maintained that international migrations are incompatible with socialism.

a86 J. Doublet

In the post-war period, the Western European countries seemed, on the whole, to have manpower reserves and, as just before 1939, there was still a tendency to fear that overpopulation would result in unemployment. The compression of populations of German origin into West Germany and Austria seemed bound to have repercussions even on the neighbouring countries. U p to 1956, the outstanding feature of the situation was apparent overpopulation. As early as 1946, however, France, in order to meet the needs of its economy as foreseen by the Commission de la Main-d 'Œuvre du Plan (Manpower Committee of the Plan), resumed its traditional immigration policy. The terms for recruiting workers in Italy were fixed by the diplomatic agreements of 22 February 1946 and 21 March 1947. A National Immigration Office was set up with exclusive control over immigration. During the first months of the application of the 1946 agreement, the procedure for admission was elaborated. T h e National Immigration Office m a d e it a rule, after the stages of prospection, recruitment, selection and medical checking, to send the migrant worker to his place of employment as quickly as possible. The French services were, incidentally, taken as a model by other States when they found it necessary to have recourse to systematic immigration, and were even used by some of those States in certain cases.

During this period, the population of the Federal Republic of Germany was considerably increased by the inflow of refugees from the former Eastern territories and from the Soviet zone, and employment expanded there on an unprecedented scale. At the same time, the European countries of the Mediterranean basin were passing through a period of underemployment. International institutions, such as the International Labour Organisation, turned their attention to organizing emigration to the N e w World and to Australia.

In the space of a few years, a radical change in the situation has come about. France is no longer the only European country endeavouring to recruit large numbers of migrant workers. The entry into force of the R o m e Treaty coincided with a rise in the level of employment, and considerable manpower needs have become apparent not only in the six m e m b e r countries of the European Economic Community, but also in Switzerland, Sweden and Austria. S o m e countries, for reasons of economic development, have been obliged to give very careful attention to the question of the m o v e ment of workers, and to restrict the outflow from certain areas and certain trades. Other countries which, for political reasons, had for a long time raised barriers to immigration, have concluded immigration agreements.

From the point of view of the States concerned the immigration of foreign workers is one means of reducing tension on the national labour market, ensuring a better distribution of the working population among a number of countries, and transferring fairly considerable monetary resources to the countries of emigration. Today, more than two million Western Europeans are thus working outside their country of origin: but the number

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of unfilled jobs in the C o m m o n Market countries is estimated at nearly one million.

In such circumstances, it is not difficult to understand w h y the official services have sometimes been overwhelmed and clandestine immigration has grown.

The report, published in 1964, on social developments in the countries of the European Economic Community shows the changes that have come about with regard to employment in the space of a few years: the distribution of manpower a m o n g the various sectors of the economy is very different from what it was at the time when the Treaty entered into force, and only by migration has it been possible to achieve a certain balance in the labour market, despite the very low degree of mobility in certain national labour forces. In Germany, 377,500 new labour permits were issued in 1963 (as against 396,000 in 1962) and, in September 1964, the number of foreign workers totalled one million. In France, the number of permanent workers admitted in 1963 totalled 115,000 (as compared with 79,000 in 1961). Immigration is also increasing in Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. Italy is the only one of the Six which still has an excess of emigrants, but this excess is n o w very slight and, since 1963, m a n y Italian workers have returned to their o w n country.

In the Swiss Confederation, the number of foreign workers subjected to control more than doubled within two years, rising from 360,000 in i960 to 750,000 in 1962. In certain branches of industry, the proportion of foreign workers is even higher than 50 per cent of the total.

Efforts are still being m a d e today to recruit foreign workers. Figures show about 600,000 to 700,000 permanent jobs available in the Federal Republic of Germany, 130,000 in the Benelux countries as a whole, and 100,000 in France; but lately certain countries, such as the Swiss Confederation and the United Kingdom, have been tending to adopt a m u c h more cautious attitude.

The needs to be met account for the efforts m a d e by the countries of immigration to reduce obstacles to the transfer of manpower. Within the European Economic Community instruments concerning the free movement of workers have been adopted, the exact import of which needs to be m a d e clear.

The restrictions on movements of workers imposed by a State's laws and regulations which give priority to its o w n manpower and consequently require foreign workers to possess a permit to work in a given trade for a limited period m a y be removed either unilaterally by the State itself, by simplifying the procedures for admission to the country, or—as has been done since 1945—by international instruments: bilateral or multilateral conventions concerning employment of workers, international conventions and European regulations on freedom of movement. These texts, however liberal they m a y be, always contain a reservation: the possibility of barring the immigration of a wage-earner for reasons of public order, public safety or public health.

Shortly after they were set up, the Council of Europe and the Organiza-

288 J. Doublet

tion for European Economic Co-operation began to consider proposing measures designed to facilitate the movement of workers.

T h e O E E G ' s efforts resulted mainly in establishing uniform procedures as between States, and facilitated the exchange of trainees; but the decisions of its Council governing the employment of nationals of the Organization's m e m b e r countries had very little practical effect. These regulations did, however, prepare the way for the measures that were subsequently to be taken by other authorities.

In 1954, for instance, the Scandinavian countries signed a Convention to facilitate the free movement of workers and, by the end of 1963, 133,200 foreigners were working in Sweden. T h e R o m e Treaty proclaimed the principle of free movement , which has been dealt with in the Community's Regulations N o . 15, of 16 August 1961, and N o . 38, of 25 M a r c h 1964, which came into force on 1 M a y 1964.

These texts provided for several stages of liberalization. The first stage, which is already over, was the period during which each of the six States undertook to abolish all restrictions (as regards percentages and numbers per business and per branch of activity) on workers belonging to the other five States. With respect to the movement of workers, the time-limit that national departments were allowed for seeking available manpower was fixed at three weeks. W o r k permits could be issued very easily for trades in which there was a shortage of workers.

T h e next stage started on 1 January 1963. T h e only grounds on which States can raise obstacles to the free movement of workers are those relating to public order and public health. Nationals of each of the six countries m a y go to work in any of the other five countries so long as they have genuine offers of employment; they m a y travel freely and reside in any country of the Community for the purpose of working there, in accordance with the provisions governing the employment of nationals of that country. Under Regulation N o . 38, foreign workers have only to be employed for one year in the same trade in order to enjoy the same rights as workers w h o are nationals of the country concerned.

T h e concept of free movement is not, incidentally, confined to wage-earning workers; under Regulation N o . 38, it extends to the staff of an employer providing services on the territory of another M e m b e r State of the Community. At a later stage, it is to lead on to freedom of establishment, on varying terms, for members of the non-wage-earning professions.

Like most of the recent bilateral treaties which preceded them, Regulations Nos. 15 and 38 on freedom of movement contain provisions concerning the rights of workers' families. Their purpose, as always in such a case, is to find a means of reconciling the difficulties of housing and the disadvantages of separating members of the same family. A worker is entitled to arrange for his spouse and children under age, his relatives in the ascending line and all his relatives in the descending line to join him, provided only that he can provide accommodation regarded as suitable for nationals employed as workers in the area in question. T h e members of his family m a y take

Migrations in Europe 289

employment and benefit from protection similar to that enjoyed by the head of the family.

T h e social security institutions of the European countries have done m u c h to assist in promoting freedom of movement , and regulations concerning the social security of migrant workers indeed pre-dated those concerning the free movement of workers.

T h e earliest of these instruments concerning social security were first drawn up within the fairly broad frame of the Council of Europe. They laid d o w n the principle of equality of treatment as between nationals of a country and those of any other country, being a m e m b e r of the Council of Europe, which has ratified the agreements. Besides this principle of equality of treatment, they also provide that, in certain cases, certain obstacles to the payment of social benefits m a y be removed : a foreign worker, on arriving in another country, m a y already have acquired certain rights in his o w n country under the social security system; but, in order to qualify for social security benefits in his new place of employment, he must fulfil certain requirements—for example, have been at work for a specified time. Generally speaking, to be entitled to benefits, he must also be resident in the country where his place of work is.

Such obstacles can be removed only by international arrangements, which m a y be based on bilateral or multilateral conventions, such as those concluded within the framework of the Brussels Treaty. Until the R o m e Treaty came into force, certain countries, such as France, allowed payment abroad only of long-term benefits (principally old-age benefits) and not of short-term benefits (medical benefits, family allowances). The R o m e Treaty contains a provision (Article 51) stating that, in the case of nationals of the six signatory States, for the purposes of qualifying for and retaining the right to benefits, all periods taken into consideration by the respective municipal laws of the countries concerned shall be added together; and that these benefits—sickness and maternity benefits and family allowances—shall be paid to persons resident in the territory of M e m b e r States. This Treaty marked an important development in the social security systems of the six countries concerned, in that it makes possible the payment of short-term benefits to families resident in a worker's country of origin.

Apart from social security proper, other advantages are provided for in the agreements on the employment of workers concluded between countries. For example, the agreement recently concluded between the Nedierlands and Spain refers to the provision of comfortable housing for migrants.The employer is sometimes under an obligation to bear the cost of the worker's return journey to his o w n country on the expiration of the contract, unless the worker is at fault. While the contract is in force, the employer is often bound to bear the cost of the worker's journey to his o w n country if he takes his annual leave there.

F r o m the standpoint of public health, the free movement of workers does not entail any serious risks in the case of countries whose epidemiological situations are comparable, but this m a y not always be so.

290 J. Doublet

T h e Council of Ministers of the Six discussed the question in connexion with the application of Article 56 of the R o m e Treaty and issued a directive on the subject, with an annex embodying provisions already applied in international conventions or State laws and regulations. This annex lists the diseases or infirmities likely to endanger public health: infectious or contagious parasitic diseases and infirmities which are quarantinable under the terms of the International Sanitary Regulations N o . 2 of the World Health Organization, dated 25 M a y 1951: tuberculosis of the respiratory apparatus (active or showing an evolutive tendency), syphilis and other infectious or contagious parasitic diseases and infirmities, coming under the terms of protective provisions applicable to the nationals of the host country. T h e following are included a m o n g the diseases and infirmities liable to endanger public order and public safety: toxicomania, agitation psychosis accompanied by delirium, hallucination, or confusion, and serious psycho-mental or similar disturbances.

In the case of workers w h o are nationals of States which are not m e m bers of the European Economic Communi ty , the health problems arising m a y be substantially different, although the protective measures applied are usually based on those provided for with regard to the countries of the Communi ty , owing to the prestige of its legislation.

While the direct and immediate effect of these European regulations concerning the free movement of workers and the social security of migrant workers has not been as great as was expected at the time they were drawn up, owing, in particular, to the fact that Italy no longer serves as a reserve of m a n p o w e r for its partners, the rules established by the Six are nevertheless of considerable importance. There is a tendency for them to become the law generally applied in respect of the large numbers of migrant workers from countries which are not m e m b e r s of the C o m m o n Market (the agreements between the Netherlands and Spain refer to them) and they are also applied in other connexions. These European regulations have systematically taken over principles emerging from m a n y existing conventions—application of the laws of the place of work in the matter of qualifying for benefits, application of the laws of the place of residence of the worker's family in determining the rate of benefits—and have established them, for the future, as international standards.

In the recent Italian-Swiss negotiations with regard to social security, the Italian delegation, in support of its requests, laid great stress on the European Economic Community's regulations, which it considered to be the only authoritative provisions, even with respect to countries outside the Communi ty . Without admitting that Italian-Swiss relations could be governed by an instrument to which the Swiss Confederation was not a party, Switzerland was led, owing to the presence of large numbers of foreign workers on its territory, to abandon some of its traditional practices and to m a k e m a n y important concessions, based on the European regulations concerning social security for migrant workers.

If the institutions of the C o m m o n Market m a k e it their object to facili-

Migrations in Europe 291

täte the free m o v e m e n t of workers, nevertheless, they have not solved the m a n p o w e r problem.

T h e creation of the European Economic C o m m u n i t y has not led to an expansion of movements of permanent workers within the C o m m u n i t y . In point of fact, such movemen t s are n o w o n a smaller scale and the States of the C o m m u n i t y have sought m a n p o w e r in other countries: m o r e than two-thirds of the total n u m b e r of work permits issued in 1963 went to citizens of countries not belonging to the C o m m u n i t y , principally those of Southern Europe (Spain, Greece, Portugal, Turkey) . Almost the only employer countries are France (185,481 workers, including 144,254 Spaniards) and G e r m a n y (206,150 workers, including about 50,000 Greeks and some 50,000 Spaniards) .x O n the basis of these figures, 82 per cent of the Italian workers finding employment during the year in another country of the European Economic C o m m u n i t y found it in G e r m a n y , and 73 per cent of the Spanish workers placed in employment in the European Economic C o m m u n i t y in a period of twelve months were placed in France.

This situation is explained by the fact that the motives for migration in Western Europe are economic. Emigration occurs in poor regions where there is under-employment; but, whereas in the nineteenth century the migrant worker left his country to earn a w a g e which w a s his only m e a n s of support, the development of social legislation in the European countries has substantially changed the situation: supplementary advantages are n o w being accorded in addition to, and sometimes independently of, the worker's w a g e , and these additional benefits are tending to b e c o m e of very considerable importance for the m e m b e r s of his family. For example, the unemployed worker often has 'rights' not only for himself but also for the m e m b e r s of his family and if he leaves his o w n country, an individual need no longer fear the loss of his o w n rights or those enjoyed by m e m b e r s of his family.

T h e European migrant in the second half of the twentieth century—who often has no wish to leave his country permanently and w h o m a y already have worked abroad—can seek information personally by consulting the national employment services and the recruiting missions about the full advantages he m a y be able to obtain, according to his place of employment , qualifications and dependents, in the country to which he is going. His fellow-workers also give h i m their views and he tries to find out h o w m u c h of his wages he will be able to save. According to his family circumstances, he will choose one country in preference to another. H e will also wish to k n o w whether his family can accompany h i m and, if so, on w h a t terms.

Communicat ion facilities have developed to such an extent that, in most cases, the migrant worker's ties with his country of origin are preserved; and this attachment is not due to any pressure o n the part of an authoritarian government—as w a s often the case before the Second W o r l d W a r — but is quite spontaneous. This explains the very considerable decrease—and

1. The figures relate to the period from 1 September 1962 to 31 August 1963.

292 J. Doublet

perhaps indeed the decline—in migration from Europe to the American countries.

T h e recent expansion of the European Economic Community has been such that the prospects open to workers have m a d e them less anxious to leave their countries of origin. Wages are definitely rising in each of the Community's six m e m b e r countries. Young married couples do not always have the incentive of being offered living accommodation, either because of the housing shortage in a particular country or because of a cautious attitude about workers' families. Social welfare legislation is constantly developing, even if not along the uniform lines desired by the authors of the R o m e Treaty. The prospects which the C o m m o n Market has opened up to Italy have enabled it to modernize its economy quickly; when workers in the south of the country are unable to obtain employment locally, they can easily find jobs in the north.

Differences in wages and purchasing power in the countries of the Community explain w h y movements of workers living in the frontier areas still take place, and have in some cases even expanded.

In their efforts to attract migrants, the countries of the European Economic Community have not adopted a c o m m o n policy with regard to other countries. The Community has not yet established a special organization to deal with the employment of immigrants, and the employment services of the Community's six member countries confine themselves to seeing that the regulations concerning freedom of movement are applied, reporting thereon to the Commission. Suggestions for Community co-operation have, however, been put forward by the Commission.1

Manpower is at such a premium that it m a y not be in the workers' interests for the six countries of the Community to have a priority claim to their labour; Italy, for example, has not given up sending its workers to Switzerland rather than reserving them for its partners of the Community.

It m a y also happen that a particular country, by recruiting foreign workers, brings them nearer to the frontiers of another country, to which they soon move on. In April 1964, at a meeting of the Ministers of Labour and Social Affairs of the Six, held in Brussels, the French Minister of Labour urged that the members of the Community should moderate their efforts to outbid each other in recruiting foreign workers w h o had come to work in a neighbouring country.

T h e situation in the countries of immigration is such that each of them considers that only its o w n services can be entrusted with the recruitment of foreign workers in non-Community countries.

Internal movements are developing to the advantage of the countries where cash wages are highest, the States concerned being unable to offer any opposition.

Moreover, the needs of each country are not always identical and, behind the statistics, w e can see that there are trends already organized

1. See: Les problèmes de main-d'œuvre dans la Communauté, April 1964.

Migrations in Europe 293

which should be maintained and developed, in preference, perhaps, to creating new ones.

This does not m e a n that no efforts can be m a d e by the Communi ty to remedy the shortage of manpower; but such efforts should, for the time being, be concerned with the provision of information, the conduct of studies, and the training of specialized or skilled workers suitable for employment inside the C o m m o n Market. W h a t has to be done is to take up again, on a fairly general basis, the efforts m a d e on various occasions in respect of bilateral relations.

Given the employment situation in Western Europe, it is not surprising that new currents of migration should recently have started to develop. T h e desire or the need to go abroad to work is experienced in the less developed European countries and in the developing countries alike.

The industrialized parts of Europe attract the inhabitants of the underdeveloped countries, particularly w h e n the distances to be covered are not too great; but the possibilities of recruiting workers from underdeveloped regions are not as tempting as they might be because the prospective emigrants have little or no professional qualifications. N e w problems then arise for the countries of immigration.

S o m e States m a y fear the consequences of an inflow of foreign workers differing too m u c h from their o w n nationals. By a Bill published in N o v e m ber 1961, the United Kingdom, breaking with a three-hundred-years-old tradition, introduced, quite apart from the existing system of very strict control over foreign immigration, control over the immigration of natives of its colonies, and of citizens of the Commonweal th and of the Irish R e public. Under this law, admission to the United Kingdom will henceforth be granted only to persons whose training, skill or educational qualifications are likely to be useful to the country; to persons holding a work contract approved by the Ministry of Labour w h o satisfy the immigration authorities that they are coming to take up employment, or that they have sufficient means to support themselves and their dependents without working; and to a limited and varying number of persons w h o do not belong to the two preceding categories, according to the requirements of the labour market. Admission m a y be refused to persons suffering from mental disorders or other serious diseases and to persons w h o have been convicted of an extraditable offence.

Does the admission of more than a certain proportion of foreign workers entail the risk of a qualitative transformation of the population? This seems to have been feared recently by the authorities of the Swiss C o n federation. In February 1964, the Federal Council decided that the admission of foreign workers would no longer be authorized without regard to the proportion of national workers employed by the firms or undertakings wishing to call on foreign labour. In the first quarter of 1964, foreign workers represented one-third of the total number of workers in Switzerland. A report of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (formerly the Organization for European Economic Co-operation) raised

294 J. Doublet

the question of the advisability of imposing such restrictions on immigration at a time w h e n the Swiss economy is 'booming'. The British Government, for its part, brought in the Bill of November 1961 'regretfully'. The fact remains that, owing to the ways in which the flow of immigration has been changed, the problems of adaptation and assimilation are n o w arising in new forms in Western Europe.

Apart from purely material advantages (wages and social security), emphasis has to be given to the arrangements for reception and hospitality, since assimilation does not always seem to be the final aim of migration.

It is true that the laws of the European countries, taking over the provisions of the international conventions on the subject, lay d o w n the principle of equal treatment of nationals and foreigners as far as social legislation is concerned, and it is also true that these laws contain hardly any discriminative provisions with regard to foreign workers. There are even social services which seek to ensure that they benefit from the provisions of the law and to find a solution to their practical difficulties. Obligations m a y also be imposed on employers in the standard contracts for bringing in foreign workers. In spite of all this, however, this legal equality is by no means matched by equality in fact as regards m a n y matters, and migration by itself, sets the foreign worker at a disadvantage. F rom the social standpoint, the question of housing is the main problem. The efforts m a d e in this matter in the European countries are very uneven. In Germany, m u c h has been done: for instance, the Federal Office for Employment and Unemployment Insurance recently allocated a s u m of 100 million D M for the building of dwellings for foreign workers. In other countries m u c h less has been done. Moreover, the building of group housing has often been criticized. Nor is the provision of a roof for the migrant enough.

For its part, France is endeavouring to organize welfare activities for the benefit of migrants more systematically than in the past by means of a public body, the Fonds d'Action Sociale pour les Travailleurs Migrants (Welfare Fund for Foreign Migrants); instituted by a decree dated 25 April 1964 for the purpose of putting an end to the inequality which exists in practice in various sectors. France is thus turning to account a recent experiment —the Welfare Fund for Moslem Workers—which produced appreciable results with respect to housing, the teaching of French, and assistance in the training of workers. The n e w fund will concentrate primarily on the housing of workers and their families.

The arrangements for the reception of workers' families in the European countries of immigration are rarely satisfactory. T h e attitudes of the different States have been by no means liberal so far, despite the protests of the Churches. France, which has always been anxious to stabilize the situation of foreign workers, is the only exception: since 1945, it has admitted a hundred and twenty thousand foreign families, its regulations anticipating the terms of the Regulations of the European Economic Community, which m a k e the admission of the migrant worker's family dependent on the availability of suitable living accommodation; it has also shown great flexibility

Migrations in Europe 295

in the application of the relevant texts. There are m a n y States, however, which, owing to the housing shortage, the fear of possible crises, or for political reasons are opposed to the admission of migrant workers' families. If a change of attitude is sometimes to be seen today, it is due not so m u c h to more h u m a n e ideas as to the desire to ensure that certain sources of manpower do not dry up. T o sum up, there are very few countries which set out to assimilate foreign migrants as m e m b e r s of the community into which they are received, and assimilation takes place only in the second generation.

T h e arrival in Europe of workers from underdeveloped regions makes these problems more acute.

Support and adaptation are even m o r e necessary in places where living conditions are often very difficult, where there are appreciable differences in cultural level and language, and where the ground has not been properly prepared prior to the migration.

It is certainly better to organize the migration of large numbers of workers in the country they are leaving than to let it take place spontaneously, particularly w h e n the workers c o m e from countries where living conditions differ from those in the European countries. A very strict medical check seems to be essential in the interest of all, in order to avoid the introduction into European countries of diseases which had either been unknown there or had been eradicated.

In addition to the short- or long-term risks to public health which unorganized movements of population m a y entail, there are other drawbacks in the creation of centres of unemployment, dangerous to the national economy and to public order, in places where newly arrived foreign workers cannot immediately take over unskilled jobs, and where, with the extension of automation, jobs not requiring special qualifications are liable to disappear in the near future.

A solution to these problems can be found by means of bilateral agreements or, preferably, multilateral conventions concluded, for instance, under the auspices of the World Health Organization.

Like the European migrant, the migrant from overseas hopes to find a higher standard of living than that to which he has been accustomed; but he is not aware of the difficulties that he will encounter in a region where habits and customs are very different from those of his o w n country, and where he will have language problems to contend with at his place of work. If migrants are not to feel too deeply uprooted and clashes are to be avoided, measures to facilitate their adaptation should be m a d e the responsibility of Welfare Centres, and audio-visual aids should be used. Such work can only be carried on in a liberal spirit and, here again, with cooperation from international institutions.

Supervision at place of work, even if it seems too strict, is nevertheless necessary, a m o n g other things, to avoid those accidents which often occur in the early days of the foreign workers' stay. O n the other hand, the training they receive, both at special courses and 'on the job', should stand these workers in good stead when they return to their o w n country. This is

296 J. Doublet

w h a t they get in return for their contribution to the European e c o n o m y : the interests of both parties then coincide, so long as the migrants are able to find w o r k appropriate to their capacities o n their return to their o w n country.

During the first few m o n t h s after their arrival, these workers should be subjected to special health supervision b y the industrial medical services. Climatic differences and the increased efforts they have to m a k e m a y well diminish the physical resistance of persons w h o appeared to be healthy w h e n medically examined at the time of their arrival.

C a n w e say, however, that such workers will not wish to remain after receiving training and being employed in a country m o r e highly developed than their o w n ? If they d o wish to stay, their o w n countries' chances of development will be lessened. T h e young States should be fully alive to this possibility, while other States should consider to w h a t extent they can employ persons w h o represent an unduly alien element in a civilization which cannot afford to run the risk of u p setting its normal balance solely for the purpose of meeting its m a n p o w e r needs—especially as these needs m a y be purely temporary.

These are the reflections suggested b y the flow of migrations in Europe at the present time. These migrations, which depend primarily on economic needs but have b e c o m e a greater burden because they are n o w governed by m o r e h u m a n e considerations than in the past, are a m e a n s of providing firms with the m a n p o w e r they need. T h e obsessive fear of u n e m p l o y m e n t , and the idea that the n u m b e r of jobs is limited, are tending to fade as the facts m a k e themselves felt: in certain circumstances reserves of m a n p o w e r promote economic development, for, as one old French author said, 'there is n o real wealth apart from m e n ' . T h e laws and regulations which imposed restrictions on the e m p l o y m e n t of m e n , depending o n their nationality, have therefore been a m e n d e d or are n o longer rigidly applied in mos t Western European countries.

Nevertheless, the present-day conception of freedom of m o v e m e n t generally m e a n s no m o r e than freedom to take u p e m p l o y m e n t that is offered, and the authors of the European Economic C o m m u n i t y ' s Regulations N o s . 15 and 38 have allowed for certain limitations o n this freedom, justified by the rights a n d responsibilities of States.

A comparative study, at the international level, of all the various facts of the problem of migrations seems to be the only m e a n s of avoiding misunderstandings between countries of emigration a n d countries of immigration.

Jacques Doublet, member of the French Conseil d'Etat, was director-general of social security in France from ig^i to ig6o. He is Chairman of the Board of the National Office of Immigration (since ig6i), of the Social Fund for Migrant Workers (since ig6o), and of the National Institute of Demographic Studies, Paris (INED), (since ig64). At present, he is Professor of Social Law at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Paris, and editor «/"Droit social. He has published a treatise on social security (ig¡8, ig6i, igß^).

T h e demographic variable in the assessment of educational needs

E. G . Jacoby

Some of the complexities of the assessment of educational needs, including their claim on financial resources, within the context of economic development planning, are explored. The problems arise from the difficulties experienced in co-ordinating the functions and the work of economists and social scientists; in matching the long-term nature of targets of educational and social development with plans for productivity growth often considered in the short term; in distinguishing between the needs dictated by demographic change and those relating to human resource development.

Although the aim of this article m a y seem to be sufficiently defined by its title, some readers m a y wonder at the omission of the term 'planning'. T h e omission is deliberate. It is not so m u c h to spare the feelings of that group a m o n g administrators and policy-makers, among economists and the public, w h o abhor the very word 'planning', with its overtones of restricted freedom for the individual. This attitude presumably still exists in a wide spectrum ranging from wholesale negation of the whole idea (which m a y even take pride in the time-honoured 'muddling through') to qualified acceptance such as 'planning without a planned economy'. T o gauge the real strength of such aversions from the literature would be a doubtful enterprise because the negativists appear to be less vocal. T h e whole issue does not directly concern us here, and m a y be left to be debated elsewhere.1

W h a t is more serious is that the term 'planning', whatever the precise meaning attached to it, m a y obscure the fundamental fact-consequence relation in social affairs and their intrinsic dynamics.2 This relation is one of the foremost challenges for the social scientist to discover and to state as objectively as possible. Fact-consequence relations have a w a y of exerting their influence in the configuration of social situations, whether they are

i. J. K . Galbraith, Economic Planning in Perspective, Cambridge, Mass. 1962 (third lecture); for educational planning, see: Educational Studies and Documents, N o . 45, Unesco, Paris, 1962 (I. Introduction).

2. J. Dewey, Logic, the Theory of Inquiry, N e w York, 1938, p. 511.

Int. Soc. Set. J., Vol. XVII, No. 2, 1965 *

398 E . G . Jacoby

overlooked or taken for granted, denied or willed. T h e probe for, and the discovery of, this relation in the social context in its widest sense, can in no circumstances be shirked by the social scientist; all his efforts must be bent to this task, regardless of whether the evidence he has marshalled contradicts or confirms any of the conceptions on which plans—plans as images of future social configurations—may be based.

A n example m a y perhaps illustrate this problem better than a methodological argument can do. Suppose that in one of the Pacific island groups with a racially mixed population an economic development plan was being prepared. After a factual survey of the economic potential—land and land uses, mineral resources, social ecology, productivity, international trade relations, and so forth—and of the manpower resources, let the conclusion be reached that a rate of 4 per cent per a n n u m in sustained productivity growth was considered to represent a feasible and realistic planning target. Let it be further assumed that the existing scope of activities in the government sector was not to undergo any change in relation to the disposition of the national income. Put in financial terms the condition means that government expenditure (partly financed by taxation, partly by profits in government-owned enterprises, and partly by external grants-in-aid) is not to increase by more than the assumed 4 per cent par a n n u m target rate of economic growth. The areas of government activities and expenditures, to which this rate was to apply as a ceiling, were listed in the development plan as (a) general administration, (b) social security including health and hospital services, and (c) educational services.

T h e development plan, let us further suppose, had been supported by a study of population developments in the islands. This study served in particular the purpose of assessing the composition and probable development of the population of working age, to which certain labour participation rates could be applied for an assessment of manpower resources and their elasticity. T h e demographic analysis, however, also revealed that during the short-term currency of the economic development plan the increases in the sector of the population below working age, including that of the population of school age, were likely to be at a rate not below but possibly exceeding 4 per cent per a n n u m . 1 However, no further consideration was given to the development of educational services, except that available resources were to all intents and purposes pegged at that figure.

W h a t m a y be inferred from this hypothetical example of 'planning' of an admittedly restricted scope—which m a y more or less resemble instances of planning in practice not u n c o m m o n today2—is a conclusion that might be rather damaging to the growing idea of planning for social and eco-

1. Though chosen arbitrarily in this example, the figure is not unrealistic (cf. Irene Taeuber, 'Demographic instabilities in island ecosystems', p. 250, in: Tenth Pacific Science Congress, Hawaii, 1962).

2. Compare the interesting summary of types of planning in Educational Planning, Twenty-fifth International Conference on Public Education, Geneva 1962, I B E and Unesco, p. ix-x.

The demographic variable and educational needs 299

nomic development. Such a plan would, as far as the continued provision of educational services and their development is concerned, have the effect not of fostering but of actually retarding if not reversing educational developments. For it implies a permissible increase in school rolls by not more than 4 per cent per annum, assuming that staffing and all other educational facilities continued to be provided at the existing scales. Yet the increase in school age population might be even higher, and it would follow that in this event either proportionately fewer children could be accommodated in the schools or, if similar proportions of the school age population are accommodated, the size of classes and staff ratios would have to be increased and the provision of educational services per child lowered. There would be no room for improved teacher training or for any other developments in the educational sector.

A n educational administrator would no doubt be justified if, instead of welcoming, he opposed an economic development plan that not only produced such an effect on the school system but invested it with an air of legitimacy. In making reasoned claims for improved allocation of resources to educational services, backed by research on the assessment of educational needs, he would find himself barred by the authority emanating from the very fact that the plan that had been commissioned existed. His position would be considerably worsened at the crucial point of governmental decision on the allocation of resources. W h a t pressure he might be able to exert in government councils w h e n recommending more spending on educational services, would be met by a plain ' N o ' , backed by the accepted authority of the 'plan'.

Simply to lay the blame for this outcome at the door of the economist-planner would be equally wrong. As economists themselves have rightly pointed out, 'the economic consequences of h u m a n resource development m a y be in the end the most difficult to identify'.1 This difficulty arises not only from the time-factor, that is the fact that the consequences become visible only in the long run, but from the cultural matrix of education, which has been so troublesome in all discussions of the economics of education because it tends to be considered as a consumption or 'social' investment without directly promoting economic growth. These difficulties must be faced and resolved because they are the reason w h y 'most economic development planners usually give only peripheral consideration to the analysis of h u m a n resources'.2

T h e post-war history of educational administration in m a n y highly industrialized countries, which was determined so largely by rapid increases in the number of school children and consequent needs for expansion of the educational services, has been one of initial resistance on the part of the treasuries to increased spending being only slowly and often only partially overcome. ' T h e pressure to spend more could be met by a reduc-

1. F. Harbison and C . A . Myers, Education, Manpower and Economic Growth, Strategies of Human Resource Development, New York, McGraw-Hill, 1964, p. 182.

2. Op. cit., p. 11.

300 E . G . Jacoby

tion in the standards of services provided . . . a reduction in standards has been the response of m a n y areas to the educational needs of the rapidly increasing school population in the past few years.1 It is worth recalling, after nearly twenty years of post-war history of educational administration, that the increases in school enrolment were forecast (often with a high degree of accuracy) and their implications for educational expansion pointed out, but that the forecasts and their implications were not heeded, or were acknowledged only after m u c h delay.

T h e situation might be even more frustrating in an underdeveloped country. In accepting a base-year expenditure on education, which represents the initial amount to which the planned increase in the allocation of resources is related, the base-year quantities of educational services and their composition and quality are implicitly set as a standard. Yet, in that base year there m a y exist high rates of illiteracy; actual school rolls and attendances m a y be m u c h below the opt imum corresponding to universal education at the elementary level; education at the secondary level and vocational education m a y be underdeveloped, if assessed in the light of the foreseeable future needs of the economy; equipment of the schools with teaching aids, staffing, the service conditions of teachers, and teacher training m a y be sub-standard. T h e ceiling put on the allocation of resources to educational services prevents improvement in the base-year standards, since the predetermined rate of increase is fully absorbed, if not over-committed, by the natural increase in sheer numbers of school age population.2

In all this, to repeat, it has been assumed that finance for education expenditure is being m a d e available at rates that correspond to expected productivity growth over the same time. T o take the matter a step further, the question must be asked: what is likely to happen in such a context if the economic targets in productivity growth do not materialize; if, for example, the rates of increase in the years covered by a development plan turn out to be nearer 2 per cent than the assumed 4.* With the prevalent methods of annual budgeting for public finance—planning or no planning— unmodified by a system of binding commitments within the terms of the development plan, one can only assume that the annual allocation of finance to educational services would stand to be correspondingly curtailed. There is evidence to show that this is what has frequently happened. A country which, at the point of take-off in the direction of industrial

1. A . J. Coale, 'Population change and demand, prices and the level of employment', Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, Princeton, i960, p. 363; see also: S. Kuznets, 'Population change and aggregate output', ibid., p. 338.

2. Harbison and Myers, op. cit., p. 219, rightly take a broader view by stressing the fact that one of the vital roles provided by a 'ceiling' is to exert pressure for greater efficiency in the use of financial resources. This aspect is little explored as yet. For the needed analysis of current education expenditure the writer is suggesting an articulated education growth index in a paper to be presented at the 1965 World Population Conference (section: Demographic aspects of education development).

3. O . Morgenstern, On the Accuracy of Economic Observations, 2nd ed., Princeton, 1963, p. 287 ff.

T h e demographic variable and educational needs 301

development, is still dependent on various branches of agricultural and raw material production is at the mercy of world market prices, and therefore extremely vulnerable as far as forward estimates of the national income derived from its productivity are concerned. In circumstances such as these, events quite outside a country's o w n control m a y play havoc with internally assumed planning targets and expectations. There is no need to enlarge on this aspect, since this was the problem that arose in m a n y of the younger countries only a few years ago. T h e sobering realities, it would seem, tend to be set aside in the construction of economic models on which economic planning must so largely rely.1

In trying to picture a situation without any traces of that optimism so often engendered by the habit of taking assumptions for facts in the absence of ascertained facts, w e have been talking of the impact of planning on current expenditures for educational services. In the economic context, however, it is rather on the more involved problem of investment that theories of economic growth converge. Here I can only try to highlight this aspect by drawing attention to a distinction between the concept of economic investment and demographic investment proposed by one of the leading figures in both demography and economics, A . Sauvy.2 In its general terms, the distinction is a simple one: '. . . demographic investments assure previous consumption to an additional population, whilst economic investments assure additional consumption to the previous population.' 'Economic' investments can, therefore, be studied, and have in the first instance been studied, in a model with an assumed stationary or a stable population. Growth models are still largely influenced by this basic pattern, so that population changes and changes in the composition of the population had to be fitted as variations into the basic pattern. T h e significance of Sauvy's argument would seem to m e to he in the logic that demographic investment precedes economic investment. For either type of investment to ensure an increase in consumer goods, it is necessary to assume a growth potential in the economy, the realization of which must be directed first to d e m o graphic investment; it is only with its residual amount that it is available for 'economic' investment. If one applies this proposition to developing countries, it is obvious that with productivity growth least assured at the take-off,3 and savings for capital formation least likely in conditions of low standards of living, the dilemma is a real one. While the need for d e m o graphic investments is at its greatest, the prospects of improved standards of living through 'economic' investments are very small indeed,4 and m a y

1. See also: Harbison and Myers, op. cit., p. 199-201. 2. A . Sauvy, Investissements démographiques et investissements économiques, International

Population Conference, Vienna, 1959, p. 136-41. 3. That the 'take-off' analogy has only limited application has been pointed out by H . Myint,

'Social flexibility, social discipline, and economic growth', in Int. Soc. Sei. J., Vol. X V I , N o . 2, 1964, p. 255-60.

4. Cf. A . J. Coale, 'Population and economic development', in: The Population Dilemma, New York, 1963, p. 47-68.

302 E . G . Jacoby

in fact constitute a negative magnitude precariously balanced by external aid. T h e exposition by Sauvy (who also emphasizes that in the case of the

juvenile population and its growth, demographic investments can be shown ultimately to be of economic benefit, thus leading us back to more familiar territory) can be restated here only in broad outline. It argues that the provision of demographic investments is not a matter of choice but of necessity. Whether or not neo-Malthusian population policies are capable of controlling the need for demographic investments in the thirty or more years to come makes no difference to the assessment of needs for d e m o graphic investments at the present time. In the short term of most economic and social development planning, the issue must therefore be faced as a real one.

For our problem of the assessment of educational needs w e can derive two insights from this investment proposition. T h e first is that demographic investment is not only an investment of the type of a capital outlay, as for example, in building a d a m for electricity generation but also of the type of current outlays on services, including educational services. A n example of the first type is school building, an example of the second, teacher training. The puzzling preoccupation with the first, noted by Harbison and Myers,1 m a y find its explanation in the more familiar association of investment with the capital outlay type.

T h e second point is that, notwithstanding the logical division between demographic and economic investment, the assessment of educational needs almost always relates to both forms of investment. T o provide schools and teachers for a child population growing from 150,000 to 250,000 requires a demographic investment of an additional two-thirds during the period of such population growth. T o raise an enrolment ratio of 50 per cent of the 150,000 children to one of 75 per cent of the child population during the period in which it is increasing to 250,000 is a question of development of h u m a n resources which must be considered as an economic investment.

It is, in fact, the combination of the need for both demographic and economic investments simultaneously and over the same period which causes growth rates in the development of educational services quite out of proportion with target rates of economic growth. If, for example, a development target for secondary education provides for an increase in the enrolment ratio from 3 to 15 per cent in ten years2 and the population of secondary school age increases at the same time by two-thirds, actual enrolment will be increasing almost 8 % times, not 5 times.

It is the 'population dilemma', and more particularly its implications in the juvenile population sector, that represents the particular instance of

1. O p . cit., p. 80. 'Indeed, the over-investment in building schools, if it diverts funds from the more fundamental task of building good teachers and materials, is in the end a step backward rather than a leap forward. . . .'

2. Harbison and Myers, op. cit., p. 72, referring to the Addis Ababa plan's target.

The demographic variable and educational needs 303

what at the beginning of this article is referred to as the fact-consequence relationship in social affairs, a relationship that is in danger of being obscured by planning concepts. This danger exists whenever planning either assumes a freedom of choice the planner does not possess, or extends a planning schedule from an area of choice to one where the necessities of the fact-consequence relation are dominant. T w o conclusions m a y be drawn at this point.

T h e first conclusion relates to the time element in development planning. The assessment of the fact-consequéñce~relation, and the evaluation of its impact on development, must consider the long-term implications of at least a generation, in order to spell out that impact. T o the demographer this is familiar ground. But in the planning context it m a y conflict with the short-term run of m a n y economic development plans, which tend to lose in sharpness of focus w h e n they are extended to the middle or long term. O n e cannot put off the consideration of a long-term facts-consequences relation simply because it is a long-term one. O n the contrary, long-term consequences of present facts—whether an ascertainable widening of the base of the population pyramid or present targets for the output of more scientists, technicians, teachers and administrators—call for earlier rather than later consideration. It would be a serious mistake for the development planner to dismiss the necessarily long-term assessments of demographic changes, their implications for educational services, and their inevitable impact on the economy simply because of their long-term character.

For the collaboration between economic planners, manpower experts and educationists and demographers1 the implication is the following: a programme for the development of educational services, which must be of the middle term if not the long term for the reasons suggested, m a y be presented in short-term sections adapted to the terms of an existing economic and social development plan. T h e policy element involved in sec-tionalizing deserves co-operative consideration in the comprehensive planning itself.

T h e second conclusion is of even greater importance. It is the assessment of needs, in the first instance those arising from the demographic factors of the situation, that must be undertaken independently from any assessment of planning targets, and must precede planning proper. In exploring this aspect further, it must be remembered that in this whole area one general rule of operational research should be observed with great care, namely, that the social researcher has the function to elucidate the fact-consequence relation in question and to pinpoint its implications—and this includes financial implications—but he has no part in the process of decision-making, which is a policy matter. His task is completed, and his responsibility discharged, once he has presented the relevant factual assessment.

1. Cf. M . Debeauvais, 'Manpower planning in developing countries', International Labour Review, Vol. 89, No. 4, April 1964, p. 319, and his report on the Conference on the Economics of Education, 1963, in the Int. Soc. Sei. J., Vol. X V I , No . 2, 1964, p. 296-9.

3"4 E . G . Jacoby

This division between operational research and policy decision based on the facts of the case m a y not be quite so simple a matter in practice. If it is accepted in principle, two possible complications arise. T h e first of these is easily disposed of. I refer to the often-stated demand that the planner be called upon to supervise the execution of an accepted plan. O n e cannot, of course, quarrel with this demand if it is suggested that performance under the plan, or more generally during the currency of the plan, be carefully observed in order to discover any disparities between actual fact and fact as assumed in the process of programming and forecasting. O n the contrary, this is one of the basic rules of social inquiry.1 It is also a requirement for the practician w h o must keep an articulated record of any points suggesting a revision of the assumptions built into forecasts and programmes, and w h o will always try to improve on the methods of projection work by careful study of the variables involved. But in so doing, the planner is restricted to the role of the 'observer'. H e should not be called to administer and execute the plan: that is the task of the administrator instructed to implement policy decisions which are based on the plan. W h a t is true of the planner, applies with even greater force to the operational function of the researcher.

In the course of action taken to m a k e the plan effective during its currency it will also happen that disparities between performances and assumptions on expected performances will lead to modifications of the plan being mooted.2 It is natural that the necessary tests and trials, in the form of modified assumptions assessed in terms of their consequences, should be referred back to the planning staff and its research team. They must be in full possession of all relevant information, and they are therefore in the best position to evaluate the implications resulting from modified assumptions.

If this article has been preoccupied with the m a n y conceptual and practical difficulties that arise in the assessment of educational needs within the context of development planning, it will be remembered that this the United Nations Development Decade has infused into our world a strong sense of urgency attending the search for solutions to the problems of economic and social development. This circumstance alone has naturally led to what is actually a phased development activity being telescoped in its perspective. 'In the early stages of development the task is not to set production targets and plan investment outlays. Rather it is to lay the administrative, social and educational groundwork for such advance.'3

The reflection of one noted economist is backed by experience gained in practical development planning, and was s u m m e d up in a modification of the Rostow proposition in these words: ' . . . some of the interesting and

i. J. Dewey, op. cit., p. 496-7. 2. This appears to have been one of the tasks of the Abidjan Conference in reviewing the

operation of the Addis Ababa plan. See: Unesco Chronicle, Vol. X , N o . 5, May 1964, P- 157-

3. J. K . Galbraith, op. cit., p. 37; see also The Liberal Hour, London i960, p. 47.

T h e demographic variable and educational needs 305

important p rob lems of p romot ing e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t at this pre-take-

off period, notably the prob lems of building the r u n w a y as distinct f rom

the p rob lems of the take-off, fall within this n o - m a n ' s - l a n d w h i c h needs to

be jointly explored b y economists a n d other social scientists.'1

1. H . Myint, op. cit., in Int. Soc. Set. J., Vol. X V I , N o . 2, 1964, p. 260. See also Harbison and Myers, op. cit., p. 185.

Dr. E. G. Jacoby is an officer in the Department of Education, Wellington, New Zealand, responsible for reporting on enrolment projections and problems of teacher supply for educational planning. His publications include: M e t h o d s of School Enrolment Projection (Unesco, ¡959)-

III. Select bibliography

Claude Legeard1

This bibliography refers only to works published between 1959 and 1964 (books and articles in periodicals, in all languages). It has been compiled largely by reference to the card indexes of the Institut National d'Études Démographiques, Paris, and the periodicals Population Index, Population Studies and Population.

T h e bibliography is divided into the following sections:

Bibliographies General demographic studies of spe-Dictionaries cific populations Journals Studies of the labour force T h e teaching of demography Demographic projections Links between demography and other Studies on censuses and population

disciplines movements Historical demography (methodologi- Marriage, marriage rates

cal works) Fertility Population policies Reproduction Textbooks, general methodology Mortality Research methods International migrations General demographic studies Internal migrations.

BIBLIOGRAPHIES

G H A S T E L A N D , Jean-Claude. Démographie, bibliographie et analyse d'ouvrages et d'articles en français. Paris, I N S E E , 1961. 181 p.

DoRDEVic, Vera; P O P O V I C , Dragomir. Demografiska bibliográfica radova iz demografije objevljeni 1945 de igôi [Bibliography of works on demography published between 1945 and 1961]. Belgrade, Social Science Institute, Centre for Demographic Research, 1963. 164 p.

E L D R I D G E , H o p e T . The materials of demography. A selected and annotated bibliography. (n.d.), 180 p. (For the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population.)

L E G E A R D , Claude. Guide documentaire en matière de démographie. Paris, Gauthier-Villars (forthcoming).

I N S E E S E R V I C E D E C O O P É R A T I O N . Bibliographie démographique (ig4¡-6s). Paris,

I963- 33 P-

i. Institut National d'Études Démographiques, Paris.

Int. Soc. Sei. ]., Vol. XVII, No. 2, 1965

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D E M O G R A P H I C TRAINING A N D R E S E A R C H C E N T R E (Bombay); INSTITUTE O F E C O

N O M I C G R O W T H (Delhi). A select annotated bibliography on population and related questions in Asia and the Far East. N e w Delhi, United Nations Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East, 1963. 222 p .

DICTIONARIES

English

Multilingual demographic dictionary. English section. Prepared by the Demographic Dictionary Committee of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population. N e w York, United Nations, 1958. 78 p . , bibliogr. (Population Study, 29-)

Finnish

Monikielinen Väestötieteen sanakirja. Suomenkielinen laitos [Multilingual demographic dictionary. Finnish section]. Helsinki, Finnish Statistical Society, 1962. 148 p .

French

Dictionnaire démographique multilingue. Volume français. Préparé par la Commission d u dictionnaire démographique de l'Union internationale pour l'étude scientifique de la population. N e w York, United Nations, 1958. 105 p . , bibliogr. (Population study, 29.)

German

Mehrsprachiges demographisches Wörterbuch. H a m b u r g , Deutsche Akademie für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, i960. 147 p .

Spanish

Diccionario demográfico plurilingüe. Volumen español. N e w York, United Nations, 1959. 108 p . (Population study, 29.)

Swedish

H Y R E N I U S , Hannes. Flersprakig Demografisk Ordbok. Göteborg, Statistical Institute, University of Göteborg, 1961. 136 p . , bibliogr.

Multilingual

Wörterbuch demographischer Grundbegriffe. Deutsch, französisch, italienisch, englisch. H a m b u r g , Deutsche Akademie für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, ig6o. 136 p .

Demographic terms in five languages (including Hungarian). Budapest, National Statistical Centre, 1959. 156 p .

JOURNALS

Belgium

Population et famille (Bevolking en gezin). Centre d'études de la population et de la famille, 2 place Royale, Bruxelles.

Select bibliography 309

Czechoslovakia

Demografie. Revue pro vyzkum populacniho vyvoje. Statistické a evidencni vydavatelstvi tiskopisu n.p. , Trziste 9, Prague I.

France

Population. Institut national d'études démographiques, 23 avenue Franklin-Roosevelt, Paris-8e.

Vitalité française. Revue de l'Alliance nationale pour la vitalité française, 217 F a u bourg Saint-Honoré, Paris-8e.

Hungary

Demografía. Review of Population Sciences of the Presidential Committee for D e m o g raphy of the Hungarian A c a d e m y of Sciences and the Central Statistical Office. Buday Laszlo u. 1-3, Budapest II.

India

Population review. Indian Institute for Population Studies. Gandhinagar, Madras ao.

International

Population bulletin. United Nations. N e w York. Le démographe. Bulletin of the International U n i o n for the Scientific Study of P o p u

lation, 93 avenue de l'Agriculture, Grivegnee (Liège), Belgium.

Italy

Genus. Via délie T e r m e di Diocleziano 10, R o m a . (Comitato italiano per lo studio dei problemi della popolazione e della societa italiana di genética ed eugenica.)

Rivista italiana di economía, demografía e statistica. Societa italiana di economia, d e m o grafía e statistica, Via Balbo 16, R o m a .

Japan

The journal of population problems (Jinko-Mondai Kinkyu). O r g a n of the Institute of Population Problems of Japan. Published by the Institute of Population Problems. Ministry of Health and Welfare. 1-2 C h ô m e , Kasumigaseki—Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo.

Poland

Studia demogrqficzne. O r g a n Komitatu N a u k Demograficznych Polskiej A k a d e m i ; N a u k . Palac Kultury i Nauki , W a r s a w .

Portugal

Centro de estudos demográficos. Revista. Instituto Nacional de Estadística. Lisbon.

United States of America

Demography. Population Association of America, 112 6 East 59th Street. University of Chicago, Chicago.

The Milbank Memorial Fund quarterly, 40 Wall Street, N e w York 5. Population bulletin. Population Reference Bureau, 1755 Massachusetts A v e n u e

Washington 36.

310 Select bibliography

Population index. Office of Population Research, Princeton University, and P o p u lation Association of America, Princeton ( N e w Jersey).

Yugoslavia

Stanovnistvo. Social Science Institute, Centre for Demographic Studies. Narodnog fronta 45, Belgrade.

T H E TEACHING OF D E M O G R A P H Y

The study of population. An inventory and appraisal. Edited by H Ä U S E R , Philip, and D U N C A N , Otis Dudley. Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1959. 864 p .

G A L A N T I N O , Fausto. L a demografía, scienza autónoma della popolazione u m a n a . Annali della Facolta di economía e commercio, vol. xv, no. 2, 1961, p . 125-65, bibliogr.

K U R I Y A N , George. D e m o g r a p h y in India. Research and teaching. Social sciences information, vol. 11, no. 1, M a r c h 1964, p . 103-16, bibliogr.

M A Y E R , Kurt. Developments in the study of population. Social research, vol. 29, no. 3, A u t u m n 1962, p . 293-320.

Les origines de l'enseignement démographique. Vitalité française, vol. 62, no. 453, August-October i960, p . 136-7, and no. 454, N o v e m b e r - D e c e m b e r 1963, p . 151-2.

LINKS B E T W E E N D E M O G R A P H Y A N D O T H E R DISCIPLINES

D U V E R G E R , Maurice. Méthodes des sciences sociales. Paris, Presses universitaires de France, 1961. vii + 501 p .

Genetics

F A L C O N E R , S . Introduction to quantitative genetics. Edinburgh, L o n d o n , Oliver and Boyd , i960. 365 p.

F U L L E R ; T H O M P S O N , W . R . Behaviour genetics. N e w York, L o n d o n , John Wiley and Sons, i960. 396 p. , bibliogr.

G A R D N E R , Elton. Principles of genetics. N e w York, L o n d o n , John Wiley and Sons, i960. 366 p . , bibliogr.

G I R A R D , Alain. La réussite sociale en France. Ses caracteres, ses lois, ses effets. Paris, Presses universitaires de France, 1961. 355 p. (Coll. Travaux et documents de l ' I N E D . Cahier no . 38.)

H A L D A N E , J. B . S.; J A Y A K A R , S. D . A n enumeration of some h u m a n relationships. Journal of genetics, vol. 58, no. 1, April 1962, p . 81-107.

H Ü L S E , Frederick. Warfare, demography and genetics. Eugenics quarterly, vol. 8 , no. 4, December 1961, p . 185-97, bibliogr.

H U R O N , Roger; R U F F I É , Jacques. Les méthodes en génétique générale et en génétique humaine. Paris, Masson et Cie, 1959. 556 p., bibliogr.

L A M Y , Maurice. Les développements de la génétique. Revue d'hygiène et de médecine sociale, no. 4, June 1962, p. 275-90.

Li, Ching Chun . Human genetics. Principles and methods. N e w York, Toronto, London, McGraw-Hill Book C o . , 1961. 218 p.

R A S M U S O N , Marianne. Genetics on the population level. Stockholm, Svenska Bokförlaget, 1961. 192 p.

Recent advances in human genetics. Edited by P E N R O S E , L . S., with the assistance of B R O W N , Helen. London, Churchill Ltd., 1961. 194 p., bibliogr.

Select bibliography 3"

Sociology

H Ä U S E R , Philip M . Demography in relation to sociology. The American journal of sociology, vol. Lxv, no. 2, September 1959, p. 169-73.

K U L C S A R , Kaiman. Demografía es szociologia. Demografia, vol. 5, no. 2, 1962, p. 188-205, bibliogr.

M A R T I N , Yves. Sociologie, démographie et génétique de population. Recherches sociographiques, vol. 2, no. 2, April-June 1961, p. 257-60.

M O O R E , Wilbert E . Sociology and demography, p. 832-51, bibliogr. In: The study of population. An inventory and appraisal, edited by H A U S E R , Philip, and D U N C A N , Otis Dudley. Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1959. 864 p.

R Y D E R , N . B . Notes on the concept of a population. The American journal of sociology, vol. LXix, no. 5, M a r c h 1964, p. 447-63, bibliogr.

Economics

M O R T A R A , Giorgio. Economía della popolazione. Analisi delle relazioni tra fenomeni economic! et fenomeni demogrqfici. Torino, Unione tipográfico éditrice torinese, i960. 514 p. (Trattato italiano di economía. Vol. Ill, U T E T . )

P E A C O C K , Alan. Theory of population and modern economic analysis. Population studies, vol. vi, no. 2, November 1962, p. 114-22, and vol. VII, no. 3, March 1964, p. 227-34.

S A U V Y , Alfred. Demographic investments and economic investments, p. 136-41. In: I N T E R N A T I O N A L U N I O N F O R T H E SCIENTIFIC S T U D Y O F P O P U L A T I O N , World

Population Conference, Vienna, /950. Vienna, 1959. 735 p.

Geography

G E O R G E , Pierre. Questions de géographie de la population. Paris, Presses universitaires de France, 1959. 229 p. (Coll. Travaux et documents de 1 T N E D , Cahier no. 34.)

O L I V E I R A , J. M . ; Pereira de. A demografia e a geografía humana . Centro do estudos demográficos, Revista, no. 13, 1961-62, p. 23-41.

History

B R A U D E L , Fernand. La démographie et les dimensions des sciences de l'homme. Annales (Economie, sociétés, civilisations), no. 3, May-June i960, p. 493-523.

C A R P E N T I E R , Elisabeth; G L E N I S S O N , Jean. Bilans et méthodes; la démographie française au XIVe siècle. Annales (ESC), no. 1, January-February 1962, p. 109-29.

Contributions à l'histoire démographique de la Révolution française. Paris, C N R S , 1962. 175 p. (Commission d'histoire économique et sociale de la Révolution, Mémoires et documents, X I V . )

N A D A L O L L E R , Jorge. L a contribution des historiens catalans à l'histoire de la démographie générale. Population, vol. 16, no. 1, January-March 1961, p. 91-104.

R E I N H A R D , Marcel; A R M E N G A U D , André. Histoire générale de la population m o n diale. Paris, Montchrestien, 1961. 597 p.

HISTORICAL D E M O G R A P H Y (METHODOLOGICAL W O R K S )

B A E H R E L , René. Sur des communes échantillons proposées à l'attention des chercheurs en sciences humaines (démographie, histoire sociale, sociologie religieuse, toponymie, anthroponymie, géographie, statistique). Annales (ESC), no. 4, July-August i960, p. 702-41.

. U n e croissance: la Basse-Provence rurale (fin xvie siècle-1789). Essai d'économie historique statistique, (s.l.), S E V P E N , 1961. 842 p. (École pratique des

312 Select bibliography

hautes études, I V e section. Centre de recherches historiques. Démographie et sociétés, VI.)

B A R A T I E R , Edouard. L a démographie provençale d u xine au xvie siècle, avec chiffres de comparaison pour le x v m e siècle (s.l.), S E V P E N , 1961. 255 p . (École pratique des hautes études, V I e section. Centre de recherches historiques. D é m o graphie et sociétés, V . )

B I R A B E N , Jean-Noël; F L E U R Y , Michel; H E N R Y , Louise. Inventaire par sondage des registres paroissiaux de la France. Population, vol. 15, no. 1, January-March i960, p . 25-58.

G A N I A G E , Jean. Trois villages de l'Ile-de-France au XVIIIe siècle. Étude démographique. Paris, Presses universitaires de France, 1963. 148 p . (Coll. Travaux et documents de l ' INED, no. 40.)

H E N R Y , Louis. Dépouillement des registres d'état civil. Population, vol. 15, no. 3, July-September i960, p . 545-7.

L E M É E , René. Guide d'orientation documentaire sur la démographie historique de la France (xvii-xvilie). 1963, 348 p . (Mémoire bibliographique Institut national des techniques de la documentation.)

S O G N E R , Solvi. Aspects of the demographic situation in seventeen parishes in Shropshire 1711-1760. A n exercise based on parish registers. Population studies, vol. xvn, no. 2, November 1963, p . 126-46.

POPULATION POLICIES

B L A C K E R , C . P . Voluntary sterilization: transitions throughout the world. Eugenics review, vol. 54, no. 3, October 1962, p . 143-62.

B R A C K E T T , James W . ; H U Y C K , Earl. E . T h e objectives of government policies on fertility control in Eastern Europe. Population studies, vol. xvi, no. 2 , November 1962, p . 134-46.

N O R T M A N , Dorothy. Population policies in developing countries and related international attitudes. Eugenics quarterly, vol. 11, no. 1, M a r c h 1964, p . 11-29.

Population trends in Eastern Europe, the U.S.S.R. and Mainland China. N e w York, Mil-bank Memorial Fund, i960. 336 p .

V A N C A M E L B E K E , Micheline. L a régulation des naissances devant le droit : avorte-ment, stérilisation et pratiques contraceptives dans les législations modernes. Revue du praticien, vol. xin, no. 18, 21 June 1963, p . 2217-31.

Latin America

M O R T A R A , Giorgio. Estudios demográficos relativos a una política de población en los países latinos-americanos. Estadística, vol. xviii, no. 69, December i960, p . 664-82.

Belgium

B A U V I R , L . La régression persistante de l'emploi en Wallonie appelle d'urgence une politique de la population. Revue du Conseil économique wallon, no. 53, November-December 1961, p . 1-11.

C E W . La politique que la Wallonie attend. Revue du Conseil économique wallon, no. 62, May-June 1963, p . 33-46.

L'économie de la région liégeoise. Analyse et perspectives. Éléments d'une politique. Publié sous la direction de L A M B E R T , Paul et M I N E U R , Joseph. Paris, Presses universitaires de France, ig6o. 647 p .

Politique de la population et de la famille. Revue belge de sécurité sociale, no. 7-8, July-August 1962, p . 921-84.

Politique démographique et de l'emploi. Revue belge de sécurité sociale, no. 3, M a r c h "963. P- 472-80.

Select bibliography 313

S E R V A I S , Léon. Pour une politique d'immigration. Revue du CEW, no. 62, M a y -June 1963, p. 12-6.

China

A I R D , John S. Population policy in Mainland China. Population studies, vol. xvi, no. 1, July 1962, p. 38-57, bibliogr.

P R E S S Â T - R O L A N D . La population de la Chine. Structure et évolution récentes. Population, vol. 16, no. 4, October-December 1961, p. 649-64.

Denmark

M A N G I N , Marie-Reine. L a politique néo-malthusienne au Danemark. Population, vol. 17, no. 1, January-March 1962, p. 75-96, bibliogr.

Spain

P E R P I Ñ A , R . ; T E J E D O R , E . Las familias m u y numerosas en España: estudio sobre los premios a la natalidad. Revista iberoamericana de seguridad social, vol. x, no. 4, July-August 1961, p. 929-59.

United States of America

B E N N E T T , Marion. American immigration policies: a history. Washington, Public Affairs Press, 1963. 362 p.

Livi, Livio. Alcuni osservazioni sulla política demográfica degli Stati Uniti. Rivista internationale di scienze sociali, vol. xxxin, no. 2, March-April 1962, p. 113-28.

LoRiMER, Frank. Issues of population policy, p. 143-78. In: The population dilemma. Edited by H Ä U S E R , Philip. Englewood Cliffs, Prentice-Hall, 1963. 188 p.

M C G U I R E , C . E . L'improwizazione della política demográfica negli Stati Uniti. Rivista internationale di scienze sociali, vol. xxxn, no. 3, May-June 1961, p. 193-211.

Hungary

D A N Y I , D . Hepessegi nezetek is nepesedes politika magyarorszagon a kapitalizmus korolen [Aspects of population and population policy in capitalist Hungary]. Demografía, vol. 5, no. 2, 1962, p. 143-65, bibliogr.

Nepesedespolitiskai Jogszabalyok 1945-58 (Legislation concerning population policy 1945-58). Demografia, vol. 2, no. 2-3, 1959, p. 379-4°8-

Japan

R I A L L I N , Jean-Louis. La prévention des naissances au Japon: politique, intentions, moyens et résultats. Population, vol. 15, no. 2, April-June i960, p. 333-52.

Poland

M I K L A S Z , Constant. La population polonaise: doctrines, politiques et conflits religieux. Population, vol. 15, no. 2, April-June i960, p. 317-32.

Sweden

S U T T E R , Jean. Bilan de la politique néo-malthusienne en Suède (1939-1957). Population, vol. 15, no 4, October-December i960, p. 677-702.

3'4 Select bibliography

Czechoslovakia

S R B , Vladimir. Population development and population policy in Czechoslovakia. Population studies, vol. xvi, no. 2, November 1962, p. 147-59.

Tunisia

S E K L A N I , M a h m o u d . L a fécondité dans les pays arabes, données numériques, attitudes et comportements. Population, vol. 15, no. 5, October-December i960, P- 831-55. bibliogr.

. Efficacité de la contraception. Méthodes et résultats. Population, vol. 18, no. 2, April-June 1963, p. 329-48.

TEXTBOOKS, GENERAL METHODOLOGY

C o x , P . Demography, 3rd ed. Cambridge, University Press, 1959. 346 p. H E N R Y , Louis. Leçons d'analyse démographique. Paris, C D U and S E D E S , i960. 138 p. H Ö L Z E R , J. Podstawy analizy demograficzne [Bases of demographic analysis]. W a r s -

zawa, Panstwowe wydawnictwo ekonomiczne, 1963. 399 p. M A C A R T H U R , N o r m a . Introducing population statistics. Melbourne, Oxford Univer

sity Press, 1961. 137 p., bibliogr. Manuel élémentaire de démographie française. Préface de J O X E , Louis. Paris, Alliance

nationale pour la vitalité française, i960. 121p. M A T T E L A R D , A r m a n d . Manual de análisis demográfico. Un ejemplo de investigaciones

en un país latinoamericano; Chile. Santiago, Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas, Universidad Católica de Chile, Centro para el Desarollo Económico y Social de América Latina (Desal), 1964. 626 p. , bibliogr.

M O R T A R A , Giorgio. Saggi di metodología demográfica. R o m a , Stabilimento tipográfico Fausto Failli, 1963. 81 p. (Pubblicazioni dell'Istituto di demografía, 9.)

P R E S S Â T , Roland. L'analyse démographique. Méthode, résultats, application. Préface de S A U V Y , Alfred. Paris, Presses universitaires de France, 1961. 403 p.

P T O U K A , Michel. Otcherki po statistiké nasselenia [Outline of demographic statistics]. Moskva, Gosstatizdat, ig6o. 456 p.

RESEARCH M E T H O D S

B A R T L E T T , M . I. Stochastic population models in ecology and epidemiologies. London, Methuen, N e w York, John Wiley and Sons, i960. 90 p.

Emerging techniques in population research. N e w York, Milbank Memorial Fund, 1963. 306 p .

J A F F E , A . T h e calculation of death rates for establishments with supplementary notes on the calculation of birth rates. Estadística, vol. xix, no. 72, September 1961, p. 513-26.

H E N R Y , Louis. D ' u n problème fondamental de l'analyse démographique. Population, vol. 14, no. 1, January-March 1959, p. 9-32.

. Réflexions sur l'observation en démographie. Population, vol. 18, no. 2, April-June 1963, p. 233-62.

H Y R E N I U S , H . New techniques for studying demographic-economic-social interrelations. Gothenberg, Demographic Institute, University of Gothenberg, 1963. 14 p.

L O P E Z , Alvaro. Problem in stable population theory. Princeton, Office of Population Research, Princeton University, 1961. 107 p . , bibliogr.

P R E S S Â T , Roland. Travaux pratiques de démographie. Paris, C D U and S E D E S , 1961. 57 P-

S O M , Ranjan; M U K H E R J E E . Analysis of variance of demographic variables. Sankhya, ser. B . , vol. 24, no. 1-2, p. 13-22.

Select bibliography 3'5

G E N E R A L D E M O G R A P H I C STUDIES

Bevezetes a demografiaba [Introduction to demography]. Budapest, Közgazdasagi es jogi könyvkiado, 1964. 610 p .

Ciixov, Haluk. Niifus Istatistikleri ve demografinin genel esailari. Istanbul, Istanbul Universitesi Yayinlarindan Iktisat Fakültesi, i960. 448 p . , bibliogr. [First Turkish demographic treatise.]

G E O R G E , Pierre. Questions de géographie de la population. Paris, Presses universitaires de France, 1959. 229 p . (Coll. Travaux et documents de P I N E D , Cahier no. 34.)

M o R D U K H O V i C H , L . Premier traité de population en Russie. Ekonomicheskie Mauki, vol. 5, no. 3, 1962, p . 95-101.

P E T E R S E N , William. Population. N e w York, T h e MacMillan C o . , 1961. 652 p. , bibliogr.

S A U V Y , Alfred. Théorie générale de la population. Vol. I: Économie et croissance, 3rd ed., completely revised. Vol. II: Biologie sociale, 2nd ed. Paris, Presses universitaires de France, 1963 and 1959. 373 p . and 397 p .

S M I T H , T . Lynn . Fundamentals of population study. Chicago, Philadelphia, N e w York, J. B . Lippincott, i960. 542 p. , bibliogr.

G E N E R A L D E M O G R A P H I C STUDIES OF SPECIFIC POPULATIONS

A L E N , F . H . A . A review of recent Irish population trends. Population studies, vol. XVIII, no. 1, July 1963, p . 73-8.

A S S O C I A Z I O N E B R E S C I A N A RiCERCHE ECONOMICHE. Aspetti demografici delta provincia di Brescia. Brescia, la nuova cartografía, 1962. 463 p .

B A N D E T T I N I , Pierfranco. La popolazione delta Tosca al 195g. Firenze, Camera di commercio, industria e agricoltura, scuola di statistica della universita, 1961.

39 > P-B I A N C H I N I , A . Demografia della regiona pontina (1656-1946) e della provincia di Latina

(1936-1955). Bologna, Casa éditrice Licinnio Cappelli, 1959. 187 p . B O G U E , Donald J. The population of the United States. With a special chapter on fer

tility by G R A B I L L , Wilson. Glencoe, T h e Free Press, 1959. 873 p . B R A Z I L . Conselho nacional de estatistica. Contribuiçoes para 0 estudo da demografia do Brasil.

Rio de Janeiro, I B G E , 1961. 459 p . Canadian population and northern colonization. Edited by V . W . Bladen. Toronto,

University of Toronto Press, 1962. 158 p . (Royal Society of Canada.) C A R V A L H O , Alceu Vicente de. A populaçao brasileira (estudo e interpretaçao). Rio de

Janeiro, Conselho nacional de estatistica, i960, 148 p . Demographic and economic change in developed countries. Princeton, Princeton University

Press, i960. 536 p . E T I E N N E , Gilbert. L a grande Malaisie. Vues sur l'économie et la population de

Singapour, de la Fédération de Malaisie et de Bornéo du Nord. Population, vol. 18, no. 1, January-March 1963, p . 111-28.

. L e recensement indien de 1961. Population, vol. 19, no. 2, April-May 1964, p . 309-24.

F R A N C E . P R É S I D E N C E D U C O N S E I L . Hau t Comité consultatif de la population et de la famille. L a population en Algérie. Contributions à l'étude de la démographie de l'Algérie. La documentation française, i960. 182 p .

G O L D S T E I N , Sidney. The Norristown study: an experiment in interdisciplinary research trairi ing. Philadelphia, University of Pennsylvania Press, 1961. 366 p .

H E L B A O U I , Youssef. L a population et la population active en Syrie. Population, vol. 18, no. 4 , October-December 1963, p . 687-714.

H o , Ping Ti. Studies on the population of China 1368-1953. Cambridge, Harvard University Press, 1959. 341 p . , bibliogr. (Harvard East Asian Studies, 4.)

3i6 Select bibliography

H U Y S E C O M - W O L T E R , Claudine. L a démographie en Equateur (Congo). Revue beige de géographie, vol. 87, fase. 2, 1963, p . 177-209, bibliogr.

India's population. Some problems in perspective and planning. Edited by A G A R W A L A . B o m b a y and London , Asia Publishing House, 1961. 208 p .

L E E , Y . L . T h e population of British Borneo. Population studies, vol. xv, no. 3, M a r c h 1962, p . 226-43.

L O P E Z , Jose Eliseo. La expansion demográfica de Venezuela. Caracas, Universidad de los Andes, 1963. 114 p. , bibliogr. (Instituto de geografía y de conservación de recursos naturales. Cuadernos geográficos, 11.)

LoRiMER, Frank. Demographic information on tropical Africa. Boston, Boston University Press, 207 p .

The Mysore population study. Report of a field survey carried out in selected areas of Mysore State, India. A co-operative project of the United Nations and the Government of India. N e w York, United Nations, 1961. 400 p . (Population studies, 34.)

N A M O U M O V , Nicolas. Quelques données sur la population de la Bulgarie. Population, vol. 15, no. 5, October-December i960, p . 857-66.

PoDiATCHiH, P . G . Nacelenia SSSR [The population of the U . S . S . R . ] . M o s c o w , Gospolitizdat, 1961. 192 p.

P R E S S Â T , Roland. L a population de la Chine. Structure et évolution récente. Population, vol. 16, no. 4 , October-December 1961, p . 649-64.

Rossi, Dario. Aspetti dello sviluppo demográfico ed edilizio di R o m a . R o m e , sta-bilimento tipográfico Fausto Failli, 1959. 79 p . (Publicazioni dell'Istituto di demografía.)

R U Z I C K A , Ladblas. Populacni vy voj nekterych zemi socialistické sowstavy [ D e m o graphic developments in certain socialist countries]. Demografie, vol. 2 , no. 4 , i960, p . 301-18.

S A U N D E R S , J. V . P . The people of Ecuador: a demographic analysis. Gainesville, University of Florida Press, 1961. 61 p . [Latin American monographs, 14].

S A U V Y , Alfred. L a population des pays d'Amérique latine. V u e générale sur leur état et leur croissance. Population, vol. 18, no. 1, January-March 1963, p . 49-64.

S E K L A N I , M a h m o u d . L a population de la Tunisie. Situation actuelle et évolution probable jusqu'en 1986. Population, vol. 16, no. 3, July-September 1961, p . 473-504.

S M I T H , R . E . T h e Cocos-Keeling Islands: a demographic laboratory. Population studies, vol. xiv, no. 2 , November i960, p . 91-130.

S Z A B A D Y , Egon. Magyarorszag népességszam anak alakulasa a nepszamlàlàsok adatai alapjan [Evolution of Hungarian populations according to censuses]. Demografía, 3rd year, no. 1, i960, p . 5-26.

T H O M P S O N , Warren. Population and progress in the Far East. Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1959. 443 p. , bibliogr.

T I T M U S S , Richard M . ; A B E L - S M I T H , Brian. Social policies and population growth in Mauritius. London , Methuen and C o . , 1961. xviii + 308 p .

W H E T T E N , Nathan L . Guatemala: the land and the people. N e w Haven, Yale University Press, 1961. xvi + 399 p . (Caribbean series, 4.)

STUDIES OF THE LABOUR FORCE

Population growth and manpower in the Philippines. A joint study by the United Nations and the Government of the Philippines. N e w York, United Nations, i960. 77 p . (Population study, 32.)

Demographic aspects of manpower. First report. Sex and age patterns of participation in economic activities. N e w York, United Nations, 1962. 86 p . (Population study, 33.)

B A U M , Samuel. The labour force of Rumania. U . S . Department of C o m m e r c e . Bureau of the Census, 1961. 33 p. (International population statistics reports, series P.90, no. 14.)

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; C O M B S , Jerry. The labour force of the Soviet zone of Germany and the Soviet sector of Berlin. Washington, U . S . Department of C o m m e r c e , Bureau of the Census, 1959. 30 p . (International population statistics reports, series P.90, no. 11.)

Besoins (Les) en emplois nouveaux par département de i960 à 1970. Rapporteur, P R E S S Â T , Roland. L a documentation française, 1961. 92 p . (Rapport du Haut ,Comité consultatif de la population et de la famille.)

D E M O N D I O N , P . Les problèmes de l'emploi. Paris, Berger-Levrault, i960. 256 p . F E D E R I C I , Nora. Evoluzione e caratteristiche del lavoro femminile in Italia. Statis-

tica, vol. 21, no. 1, January-March 1961, p . 65-90. F O U R A S T I É , Jean. Image de la population active en 1975 selon le niveau de la quali

fication. Population, vol. 18, no. 3, July-September 1963, p . 489-98. G U E L A U D - L E R I D O N , Françoise. Perspectives sur la population active française par

qualification en 1975. Population, vol. 19, no. 1, January-March 1964, p . 9-30. . Le travail des femmes en France. Préface de F O U R A S T I É , Jean. Paris, Presses uni

versitaires de France, 1964. 77 p. , bibliogr. (Institut national d'études démographiques et Commissariat général au plan d'équipement et de la productivité.) (Coll. Travaux et documents de l ' I N E D , Cahier no. 42.)

K E L S A L L , R . K . ; M I T C H E L L , Sheila. Married w o m e n and employment in England and Wales. Population studies, vol. xvni, no. 1, July 1959, p . 19-39.

L E R I D O N , Françoise. Évolution de la population active en divers pays industriels. Population, vol. 14, no. 3, July-September 1959, p . 455-84.

O E C D . Manpower statistics 1950-1962. Paris, O E C D , 1961. 89 p . P R E S S Â T , Roland. Vues prospectives sur la population active par département de

i960 à 1970. Population, vol. i6, no. 3, July-September 1961, p . 401-26. Prévisions démographiques et besoins futurs de main-d'œuvre. Revue internationale

du travail, no. 4 , April 1961, p . 405-27, bibliogr. S E I B E L , Claude; J E G O U Z O , Georges. Démographie descriptive et prévisionnelle du

milieu agricole. Études rurales, no. 13-4, April-September 1964, p . 9-45. S E K L A N I , M a h m o u d . Population active et structures économiques de l'Egypte.

Population, vol. 17, no. 3, July-September 1962, p . 465-90. T U U R A , Antti; P U R O L A , Taapani. Vaeston ja tyovoimann kasvu suomess vuoteen 1970

[The growth of population and labour force in Finland up to 1970]. Helsinki, Population Policy Research Institute, 1961. 100 p .

V I M O N T , Claude. La population active. Évolution passée et prévisions. Avant-propos de F O U R A S T I É , Jean. Préface de S A U V Y , Alfred. Paris, Presses universitaires de France, i960. 192 p . , bibliogr.

Y P S I L A N T I S , James N . The labour force of Czechoslovakia. Washington, U . S . Bureau of the Census, i960. 30 p . (Coll. International population statistics report, series P.90, no. 13.)

D E M O G R A P H I C PROJECTIONS

B L A N P A I N , Henri. Analyse par génération: exemples d'application à la projection démographique. Informations statistiques (Office statistique des communautés européennes), no. 4 , 1962, p . 403-22.

B O L L E , Theda. Die entwicklung der Bevölkerung in der Bundesrepublik von 1960-1975 auf grund einer neuen Vorausberechnung. Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschafts-

forschung, no. 2 , 1961, p . 178-89. B O R R I E , W . D . ; R U D G E R S , Ruth. Australian population projective 1960-1975. A study of

changing population structure. Canberra, T h e Department of Demography, 1961.27 p . B R E Z N I K , Dusan. Prognoze stanovnistva Jugolavije do 1981 godine [Yugoslav

population projections to 1981]. Stanovnistvo, vol. 1, no. 1, January-March 1963, p . 46-72.

C E P A L . D I V I S I O N D E A S U N T O S S O C I A L E S . Proyección de la población urbana y rural de Cuba (con estimaciones de la fuerza de trabajo de la población en edad escolar y del grado de alfabetismo). Havana, C E P A L , i960. 96 p .

3i8 Select bibliography

Demographic trends ig$6-igj6 in Western Europe and in the United States. Paris, O E C D , 1961. 149 p.

Future population estimates by sex and age. Fourth Report. The population of Asia and the Far East, ig¡o-ig8o. N e w York, United Nations, i960. 118 p. (Population study, 31.)

Guanabara demographic pilot survey. A joint project of the United Nations and the Government of Brazil. Report of a field survey carried out in the State of Guamabara. Prepared by the United Nations Regional Centre for Demographic Training and Research in Latin America. Santiago, N e w York, United Nations, 1964. 81 p. (Population study, 35.)

H E T M A N N , François. Croissance démographique et économique; examen des prévisions à long terme. Bulletin Sedeis, no. 859, supplement 1, 10 July 1963, p. 1-27.

H Ö L Z E R , Jerzy. Prognoza demograficzna Polski na lata ig6o-igj¡. Wedlug woje wogztw. Warsaw, Polskie wydawnictz gospogarcze, 1959. 192 p.

L E R I D O N , Françoise. Dix ans d'expérience de prévision de l'emploi. Population, vol. 16, no. 3, July-September 1961, p. 427-46.

L o Y O , Gilberto, La población de Mexico; estado actual y tendencias ig¡o-ig8o. México, Instituto Mexicano de Recursos Naturales Renovables, 1960. 151p.

M A D A , I. Cresterea in perspectiva a numarului populatiei R P R [Perspectives of increase in the R u m a n i a n population]. Revista de statistica (Rumania), vol. ix, no. 5-6, May-June i960, p. 64-70.

M A Y E R , Kurt. Fertility changes and population forecasts in the United States. Social research, vol. 26, no. 3, autumn 1959, p. 347-66.

NovAcco , Nino. Prévisions pour l'année 1975 sur la population italienne selon la qualification professionnelle et l'instruction. Population, vol. 16, no. 3, July-September 1961, p. 463-72.

Perspectives de population dans les pays africains et malgache d'expression française. Étude de synthèse des enquêtes démographiques récentes. Paris, I N S E E Service de co-opération, 1963- 50 P-

S A N C H E Z , René B . Proyecciones de población de la República de Costa Rica para los anos ig6o, 1965, igyo. Costa Rica, Dirección General de Estadística y Censos, 1962. 48 p. , bibliogr.

S A U V Y , Alfred. Les perspectives d'accroissement du nombre des emplois en France d'ici 1975. Population, vol. 16, no. 2, April-June 1961, p. 197-220.

U . S . A . population growth. Projections to 1980. Population bulletin, vol. xv, no. 3, M a Y 1959, bibliogr.

Väestönkehityksen ennuste vuoten 1975 saakka [Finnish demographic projections to 1975]. Tilastokatsauksia statistiska översikter, vol. xxxrv, no. 4, 1959, p. 44-52.

V I N C Z E , Istvan. Megjegyrèsek a népésség szàmszeru alakulàsànak vizsgàlatàhoz [Observations on changes in growth of population]. Demografía, vol. 6, no. 2, 1963, p. 217-230.

VoGELNiK, Dolfe. Perspektiva prebivalstva in delowne sile L . R . slovenyé i960-1980 [Projections of total and active population changes in Slovenia, i960-1980]. Ekonomiski zbornik, vol. 5, 1960, p. 143-218.

V o L C O U V E , V . D e la prévision démographique. Études de comptabilité nationale, no. 1, April i960, p. 42-56.

STUDIES ON CENSUSES A N D POPULATION M O V E M E N T S

CENSUSES

Methods, suggestions, utilization, problems

B E L T R A M O N E , André. Sur la mesure des migrations intérieures au moyen des données fournies par les recensements. Population, vol. 17, no. 4, October-December 1962, p. 703-24.

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B R I C H L E R , Marcel. Comparabilité de certaines caractéristiques socio-économiques dans les recensements de i960 en Europe, p. 129-50. Bulletin de l'Institut inter-national de statistique, vol. xxxvn, 2nd part. Bruxelles, i960. 495 p.

C H E V R Y , Gabriel-René. Quelques détails complémentaires sur le recensement de la population en 1962. Journal de la société de statistique de Paris, no. 4-5-6, 2nd trimestre 1963, p. 85-100.

D U C H E I N , Michel. Les archives des recensements. La Gazette des archives, no. 33, 2nd trimestre 1961, p. 61-72.

D U R A N D , John D . T h e population statistics of China A.D.2-1953. Population studies, vol. x m , no. 3, M a r c h i960, p. 209-57, bibliogr.

F A J F R , Frantisek. Statistik in der Landwirtschaft. Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute, vol. x x x v m , 2nd part, p. 269-280. Tokyo, Sasaki, 1961. 598 p.

H O R V A T H , Robert. Les dénombrements en Hongrie et la statistique démographique hongroise. Tortenety statisztikai közlemenyek, vol. in, no. 1-2, 1959, p. 116-81.

L'Institut national de la statistique et le recensement de ig6s. Paris, L a documentation française, 1962. 64 p. , graph, m a p s , tabl., ill., fig., pyramids, bibliogr.

K R Ó T K I , Karol and H A S H M I , Sultan. Report on a census enumeration. The Pakistan development review, vol. 11, no. 3, au tumn 1962, p. 377-405.

L E O N A R D , William R . International co-operation in the field of population censuses and sampling, m a p , tabl., bibliogr. Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute, vol. xxxvn, 2nd part, p. 151-9. Bruxelles, i960. 495 p.

LoRiMER, Frank. Demographic information on tropical Africa. Boston, Boston University Press, 1961. 207 p.

M A C U R A , M . ; B A L A B A N , V . Yugoslav experience in evaluation of population censuses and sampling. Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute, vol. x x x v m , 3rd part, P- 375-99) bibliogr. Tokyo, Sasaki, 1961. 598 p.

M O L S , Roger. S. J. L'accroissement de la population de la France selon les régions et l'importance des agglomérations. Population, vol. 18, no. 2, April-June 1963, p. 263-304.

. Les leçons du recensement français de 1962. Economisch en social Tijdschrift, vol. 17, no. 3, June 1963, p . 193-211.

National programmes of analysis of population census data as an aid to planning and policymaking. N e w York, United Nations, 1964. 78 p. (Population studies, 36.)

P R E S S Â T , Roland. L a population française au recensement de 1962. Premiers résultats. Population, vol. 17, no. 4, October-December 1962, p. 627-44.

R E I N H A R D , Marcel. Étude de la population pendant la Révolution et l'Empire. Recueil de textes. Premier supplément. Paris, Imprimerie nationale, 1963. 76 p. (Ministère de l'Éducation nationale, Commission d'histoire économique et sociale de la Révolution française.)

S E L E G E N , Galina V . Changing features in the Soviet population censuses prog r a m m e . Population studies, vol. x m , no. 1, July 1959, p. 40-5.

History, organization, special features

B E T Z , Claire. Le contenu de la statistique des familles à travers les recensements depuis 1801, avec analyse des concepts. Paris, 1963. 42 p . , tabl. (Mémoire bibliographique Institut national des techniques de la documentation.)

B I R A B E N , Jean-Noël. Inventaire des listes nominatives de recensement en France. Population, vol. 18, no. 2, April-June 1963. p. 305-28.

C I L L O V , Haluk. Nttfus Istatistikleri ve demogrqftnin genel essaslari. Istanbul, Serment Mathaasi, i960. 448 p. , tabl. fig., bibliogr.

Handbook of population census methods. Vol. Ill: Demographic and social characteristics of the population. N e w York, United Nations Statistical Office. 1959. 85 p. (Methodological studies, series F , no. 5, rev. i.)

H E N R Y , Louis. Réflexions sur l'observation en démographie. Population, vol. 18, no. 2, April-June 1962, p . 233-62.

320 Select bibliography

S A U V Y , Alfred. La population, sa mesure, ses mouvements, ses lois. Paris, Presses universitaires de France, 1963. 128 p. , bibliogr. (Coll. Q u e sais-je? N o . 148.)

U N I T E D N A T I O N S . Seminars on evaluation and utilization of population census data in Asia and the Far East. B o m b a y , 20 June to 8 July i960. Pag. disc.

. Seminar on evaluation and utilization of population census data in Latin America. Santiago du Chili, 30 November to 18 December 1959. Pag. disc.

Accuracy, commentaries, controls, critique

C A R R I E R , N . M . ; F A R R A G , A . M . T h e reduction of errors in census population for statistically under-developed countries. Population studies, vol. XII, no. 3, M a r c h 1959, p . 240-85.

C O A L E , Ansley J.; Z E L N I K , Melvin. New estimates of fertility and population in the U.S. A study of annual white births from 1855 to ig6o and of completeness of enumeration in the censuses from 1880 to ig6o. Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1963. 186 p.

H A N S E N , M . M . ; H U R W I T H , W . N . ; B E R S A H O , M . A . Measurement errors in censuses and surveys, p . 359-74. Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute, vol. xxxviil, 2nd part. Tokyo, Sasaki, 1961. 598 p.

M A H A L A N O B I S , P . C ; L A H I R I , D . B . Analysis of errors in censuses and surveys with special reference to experience in India, p. 401-33. Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute, vol. xxxviil, 2nd part, Tokyo, Sasaki, 1961. 598 p.

Evaluations, estimations, polls, demographic surveys

A H M E D , Nazir; K R O T K I , Karol J. Simultaneous estimations of population growth. T h e Pakistan experiment. The Pakistan development review, vol. in, no. 1, spring 1963,

P- 37-65-B A E H R E L , R . Sur des c o m m u n e s échantillons proposées à l'attention des chercheurs

en sciences humaines. Annales (ESC), no. 4, July-August i960, p . 702-41. B I R A B E N , Jean-Noël; F L E U R Y , Michel; H E N R Y , Louis. Inventaire par sondage des

registres paroissiaux de France. Population, vol. 15, no. 1, January-March i960, p. 25-58.

B L A N C , Robert; T H É O D O R E , Gérard. La population d'Afrique noire et de M a d a gascar. Enquêtes et résultats récents. Population, vol. 15, no. 3, July-September i960, p. 407-32, bibliogr.

M i D z u N O , H . O n the post-enumeration survey. Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute, vol. xxxvni, 2nd part, p . 435-41. Tokyo, Sasaki, 1961. 598 p.

M Ü H S A M , H . V . Population estimates based on census enumeration and coverage check. Population studies, vol. xiii, no. 3, M a r c h i960, p. 278-81.

N A R A G H I , Ehsan. L'étude des populations dans les pays à statistique incomplète. Contributions méthodologiques. Préface de S T O E T Z E L , J. Paris, L a H a y e , M o u t o n , i960. 139 p., bibliogr.

T U M U R A , V . Role of census in countries conducting various sample surveys. Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute, vol. xxxviil, 2nd part, p . 593-98. Tokyo, Sasaki, 1961. 598 p.

V I N C E N T , Paul; B O U R G E O I S - P I C H A T , Jean. U n essai d'évaluation de la précision des statistiques démographiques d'un pays sous-développé: la Thaïlande. Population, vol. 15, no. 1, January-March 1961, p. 131-6.

Z A R K O W I C H , Slobodan. Sampling methods and censuses. Vol. I: Collecting data and tabulation. R o m e , F A O , 1961. 152 p .

POPULATION M O V E M E N T S (REGISTRATION)

E L B A D R Y , M . A . A n evaluation of the parity data collected in birth certificates in B o m b a y City. The Milbank Memorial Fund quarterly, vol. XL, no. 3, July 1962, P- 328-55-

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Emerging techniques in population research, Milbank Memorial Fund, 1963. 306 p . H A S E K , Jaroslav. O n the theory of ratio estimates. Bulletin of the International Sta

tistical Institute, vol. X X X V I I , 2nd part, p . 219-26, bibliogr. Brussels, i960. 495 p . L E V Y , Claude. Les origines de notre état civil. Le Concours médical, no. 52, 24 D e c e m

ber i960, p . 6135-40. S A V O R G N A N , Mario. L a statistica délie nascite secondo l'ordina di generazione.

Rivista italiana di economía, demografía e statistica, vol. xv, no. 3-4, July-December 1961, p . 269-84.

S A U V Y , Alfred. La population, sa mesure, ses mouvements, ses lois. Paris, Presses universitaires de France, 1963. 128 p. , bibliogr. (Coll. Q u e sais-je?, 148.)

Les statistiques démographiques et sanitaires. W H O chronicle, no. 6, June 1963, p . 253-8.

MARRIAGE, MARRIAGE RATES

A G A R W A L A , S . N . Age at marriage in India. Allahabad, Kitab Mahal Private, 1962. xxiv + 296 p .

B E N J A M I N , B . Changes in marriage incidence in Western society in the last thirty years. Journal of the Institute of Actuaries, vol. 89, part. II, no. 382, 1963, p . 125-34.

C A M P , W . Marriage and the family in France since the Revolution: an essay in the history of population. N e w York, B o o k m a n Associates, 1961. 203 p .

C H A S T E L A N D , J. C ; P R E S S Â T , R . L a nuptialité des générations françaises depuis un siècle. Population, vol. 17, no. 2, April-June 1962, p . 215-40.

D R O N A M R A J U , K . R . L e système des castes et les mariages consanguins en Andra Pradesh (Inde). Population, vol. 19, no. 2 , April-May 1964, p . 291-305, bibliogr.

G I R A R D , Alain. Le choix du conjoint. Une enquête psycho-sociologique en France. Paris, Presses universitaires de France, 1964. 203 p . (Coll. Travaux et documents de l ' I N E D , cahier no. 44.)

H E N R Y , Louis. Approximation et erreurs dans les tables de nuptialité de générations. Population, vol. 18, no. 4 , October-December 1963, p . 737-76.

J A C O B S O N , Paul; in collaboration with J A C O B S O N , Pauline. American marriage and divorce. N e w York, Rinehart, 1959. xviii + 188 p .

P A I X O S , Emil; V U K O V I C H , György. A magyar hàzassagi mozgalon néhény jelleg-zetessége. Hàzassagi tablak [Certain characteristics of marriage evolution in Hungary]. Tables. Demografia, vol. 3, no. 2, i960, p . 159-91.

P R E S S Â T , Roland. L a natalité et la nuptialité en Union soviétique. Population, vol. 18, no. 4 , October-December 1963, p . 777-86.

Ros J I M E N O , José. Tablas de nupcialidad' de la población española. Revista internacional de sociología, vol. 14, no. 75, July-September 1961, p . 369-80.

R O S S E T , Edward. Malzènstwo a reprodukeja ludnosci [Marriage and population reproduction]. Studia demogrqficzne, vol. 1, no. 1, 1963, p . 7-37.

S U T T E R , Jean; G o u x , Jean-Michel. Évolution de la consanguinité en France de 1926 à 1958 avec des données récentes détaillées. Population, vol. 19, no. 4 , October-December 1964, p . 683-702.

T W I E S S E L M A N N , Fr.; M O U R E A U , P. ; F R A N Ç O I S , J. Évolution du taux de consanguinité

en Belgique de 1918 à 1959. Population, vol. 17, no. 2, April-June 1962, p . 241-66.

FERTILITY

Fertility studies (techniques and problems of measurement)

B R A S S , W . T h e graduation of fertility distributions by polynomial functions. Population studies, vol. xrv, no. 2, November i960, p . 148-62.

C O A L E , Ansley; T Y E , Y . T h e significance of age-patterns of fertility in high fertility

322 Select bibliography

populations. Milbank Memorial Fund quarterly (The), vol. xxxix, no. 4 , October 1961, p. 631-46.

H E N R Y , Louis. Fécondité et famille, Modèles mathématiques. Population, vol. 16, no. 1, January-March 1961, p. 27-48 and no. 2, April-June 1961, p. 261-82.

. La fécondité naturelle. Observations, théorie, résultats. Population, vol. 16, no. 4, October-December 1961, p. 625-36, bibliogr.

K I S E R , Clyde. Current mating and fertility patterns and their demographic significance. Eugenics quarterly, vol. 6, no. 2, June 1959, p. 65-82.

M A R B A C H , Giorgio. Fécondité e fecondabilita matrimoniale délie primipare (aspetti teorici ed applicazioni). R o m a , stabilimento tipográfico Fausto Failli, 1959. 81 p . (Publi-cazioni dell'Istituto di demografía.)

O S A D N I K , L . A kohorsz-elemzès modszere a termékenység tényezoinek vizsgàlatànal [The cohort analysis method for the study of factors of fertility]. Demografia, vol. v, no. 4, 1962, p . 410-4.

P O T T E R , R . G . Length of the fertility period. Milbank Memorial Fund quarterly (The), vol. xxxix, no. 1, January 1961, p . 132-62.

. Length of the observation period as a factor affecting the contraceptive failure rate. Milbank Memorial Fund quarterly (The), vol. xxxviii, no . 2, April i960, p. 140-52.

S H E E S , Mindel; P E R R I N , E d w a r d B . T h e distribution of birth intervals under a class of stochastic fertility models. Population studies, vol. xvri, no . 3, M a r c h 1964, p . 321-31.

T A B A H , Léon. Plan de recherche de sept enquêtes comparatives sur la fécondité en Amér ique latine. Population, vol. 19, no . 1, J a n u a r y - M a r c h 1964, p . 95-126, bibliogr.

W H E L P T O N , Pascal; C A M P B E L L , Arthur. Fertility tables for birth cohorts of American women. Part I: Annual and cumulative birth rates, by age, by order of birth for all women in cohorts of 1876 to 1943. Washington, United States Department of Health, Education and Welfare, i960. 12g p .

Y U A N - T I E N . T h e social mobility/fertility hypothesis reconsidered. A n empirical study. American sociological review, vol. 26, no . 2, p . 247-57.

Fertility studies (statistical studies of specific populations or groups)

A R D E N E R , Edwin. Divorce and fertility. London, Oxford University Press, 1962. '73 P- (On Nigeria.)

B A D E N H O R S T , L . T . ; H I G G I N S , Edward. Fecundity of the white w o m e n in Johannesburg. Population studies, vol. xv, no. 3, March 1962, p. 279-90.

; U N T E R H A L T E R , B . A study of fertility and infant mortality in an urban African community. Population studies, vol. xv, no. 1, July 1961, p. 70-86.

B E C K M A N , L . ; E L S T O N , R . Assortative mating and fertility. Acta genética e statistica medica, vol. 12, no. 2, 1963, p. 117-22, bibliogr. (Study of 477 couples in Uppsala.)

B I R A B E N , Jean-Noël. Évolution récente de la fécondité des mariages dans les pays occidentaux. Population, vol. 16, no. 1, January-March 1961, p. 49-70.

. La fécondité des mariages en France. Revue de l'action populaire, no. 157, April 1962, p . 461-75.

B L A C K E R , J. G . Fertility trends of the Asian population of Tanganyika. Population studies, vol. xiii, no . 1, July 1959, p . 46-60.

. Population growth and differential fertility in Zanzibar. Population studies, vol. xv , no. 3 , M a r c h 1962, p . 258-66.

C A L D W E L L , J. C . Fertility decline and female chances of marriage in M a l a y a . Population studies, vol. 17, no. 1, July 1963, p . 20-32.

C O O K , Robert C . L o w birth rates of European Catholic countries. Population bulletin, vol. xviii, no . 2, M a r c h 1962, p . 21-39.

E V E R S L E Y , D . E . C . Social theories of fertility and the Malthusian debate. Oxford, T h e Clarendon Press, 1959. ix + 313 P-> bibliogr.

Select bibliography 323

M E H L A N , K . H . ; F A L K E N T H A L , S. A születesi intervallum jelentösege a nö termé-kenysége es egészsége szempontjàbol [The influence of birth intervals on female fertility and health]. Demografia, vol. 5, no. 4, 1962, p. 400-9.

F R E E D M A N , R . ; P E N G , J. Y . ; TAKESHITA, U . ; S U N , T . H . Fertility trends in Taïwan.

Traditions and changes. Population studies, vol. xvi, no. 3, March 1963, p. 219-36. G O L Z I O , Silvio. Considerazioni circa il problema demográfico italiano. Rivista

intemazionale di scienze sociali, vol. xxxin, no. 2, March-April 1962, p. 105-12. H O L Z E R , Jerzy. Urodzenia i szony a struktura ludnosci polski 1950-2000 [Births

and deaths. Structure of the population in Poland 1950-2000]. Warsaw, Pansto-wowe wydawnictwo ekonomiczne, 1964. 172 p., bibliogr.

J A M E S , W . H . Estimates of fecundability. Population studies, vol. xvn, no. 1, July 1963,

P- 57-65-J U R E C E K , Zdenek. Ukazetelé plodnosti zn podle vysled kü scitani lidu z roku 1950

[Data on fertility in Czechoslovakia from the census of 1950]. Demografie, vol. 1, no. 1, 1959, p. 11-29.

M O R T A R A , Giorgio. A fecundidade da mulher no Brasil segundo as unidades da federaçao. Revista brasileira de estatistica, vol. xxv , no. 93-4, January-June 1963, p. 1-41.

. Le unioni libere nell' America latina. Le madri nubili in Brasile. R o m a , stabilimento tipográfico Fausto Failli, 1961. 175 p . (Publicazioni delP Instituto di d e m o grafía 8.)

. Natalidade, fecundidade e prolificidade na America latina. Revista brasileira de estatistica, vol. x x m , no . 89-go, January-June 1962, p . 1-23.

N U L T S C H , G . A korspecifikus termékenyseg a N é m e t Demokratikus Kôztàrsasàgban es valoszinü alakulàsa 1980-ig [Fertility by age in the G e r m a n Democratic Republic and its development to 1980]. Demografia, vol. 5, no . 4 , 1962, p . 456-g.

P A R K . Analysis of h u m a n fertility in Northern Ireland. Journal of the statistical and social inquiry society of Ireland, vol. xxi, part I. 1962-64, p . 1-13.

P O T T E R , Robert. Birth intervals, structure and change. Population studies, vol. xvn, no. 2, November 1963, p. 155-6.

R E L E , J. R . Some aspects of family and fertility in India. Population studies, vol. xv, no. 3, March 1962, p. 267-78.

R O B E R T S , D . F.; T A N N E R , R . E . S. A demographic study in an area of low fertility in North-East Tanganyika. Population studies, vol. x m , no. 1, July 1959, p. 61-80.

S A R M E N T Ó , A . ; FIGUEIRA, H . Contribuiçao para o estudo da fertilidade da mulher nativa da tribu ganda. Centro de estudos demográficos. Revista, no . 13, 1961-62, p . 69-85, bibliogr.

S E K L A N I , M a h m o u d . L a fécondité dans les pays arabes, données multiples; attitudes et comportements. Population, vol. 15, no . 5, October-December i960, p . 831-55.

S E R B U , G . R . Evolutia fertilitatu populatiei feminina diu R . P . R . in perioada 1900-1960 [Evolution of female fertility in R u m a n i a , 1900 to 1960]. Revista de statis-tica, vol. xi, no . 4 , April 1962, p . 43-58, bibliogr.

T A B A H , L é o n . A study of fertility in Santiago, Chile. Marriage and family living, vol. 25, no . 1, p . 20-6.

T A E U B E R , Irene B . Continuities in the declining fertility of the Japanese. Milbank Memorial Fund quarterly (The), vol. xxxvin, no . 3, July i960, p . 264-83.

V I N C E N T , Paul. Recherches sur la fécondité biologique. Étude d'un groupe de familles nombreuses. Paris, Presses universitaires de France, 1961. 278 p . (Coll. Travaux et documents de P I N E D , Cahier no. 37.)

Fertility studies (analyses of causes and effects of observed patterns and possibilities of future control)

A C S A D I , György. A termékenyseg néhàny tényezoje Magyarorszàagon [Different fertility factors in Hunga ry ] . Demografia, vol. 4 , no . 4 , 1961, p . 407-20.

324 Select bibliography

B L A C K E R , J. G . Population growth and differential fertility in Zanzibar. Population studies, vol. xv, no. 3, March 1962, p. 258-66.

B R E S L E R , Jack. The relation of population fertility levels to ethnic group backgrounds. Eugenics quarterly, vol. 8, no. 1, March 1961, p. 12-22.

C A R T E R , Cedric. Changing patterns of differential fertility in Northwest Europe and in North America. Eugenics quarterly, vol. 9, no. 3, p. 147-50, bibliogr.

C H A N D R A S E K A R A N , C ; G E O R G E , M . Mechanisms underlying the differences in fertility patterns of Bengalee w o m e n from three socio-economic groups. Milbank Memorial Fund quarterly (The), vol. xv, no. 1, January 1962, p. 59-89.

CouGHLiN, Richard; C O U G H L I N , Margaret. Fertility and birth control among low-income Chinese families in H o n g - K o n g . Marriage and family living, vol. 25, no. 2, March 1963, p. 171-7.

D A V I S , Moshe. Centres of Jewry in the Western hemisphere. A comparative approach. The Jewish journal of sociology, vol. v, no. 1, June 1963, p. 4-26, bibliogr.

D A Y , Lincoln. Fertility differentials among Catholics in Australia. Milbank Memorial Fund quarterly (The), vol. XLII, no. 2, part 1, p. 57-83, bibliogr.

Demographic and economic change in developed countries. A conference of the Universities (National Bureau Committee for economic research). Princeton, Princeton University Press, i960. 536 p.

D O U R L E N - R O L L I E R , Anne-Marie. La vérité sur l'avortement: deux enquêtes inédites. Paris, Maloine, 1963. 246 p .

D R I V E R , Edwin. Fertility differentials a m o n g economic strata in central India. Eugenics quarterly, vol. 7, no. 2, June i960, p . 77-85.

F E D E R I C I , Nora. Dinámica demográfica e fenomenología sociale. Rivista italiana di economía, demografía e statistica, vol. xv, no. 1-2, January-June 1961, p . 43-52.

F R E E D M A N , Deborah. The relation of economic status to fertility. American economic review, vol. m i , no. 3, June 1963, p . 414-26.

F R E E D M A N , Ronald. Socio-economic factors in religious differentials in fertility. American sociological review, vol. 26, no. 4 , August 1961, p . 608-14.

; P E N G , J. Y . N . ; T A K E S H I T A , U . ; S U N , T . H . Fertility trends in Taiwan: tradition and change. Population studies, vol. xvi, no. 3, March 1963, p . 219-36.

; S L E S S I N G E R , D . Fertility differentials for the indigenous non-farm population of the United States. Population studies, vol. xv, no. 2, November 1961, p . 161-73.

; W H E L P T O N , P. ; C A M P B E L L , A . Family planning sterility and population growth. N e w York, Toronto, London, McGraw-Hill Book C o . , 1959. 515 p .

G O L D B E R G , David. Another look at the Indianapolis fertility data. Milbank Memorial Fund quarterly (The), vol. x x x v m , no. 1, January i960, p . 23-6.

. T h e fertility of two generation urbanités. Population studies, vol. XII, no. 3, p. 214-22.

H I G G I N S , Edward. S o m e fertility attitudes a m o n g white w o m e n in Johannesburg. Population studies, vol. xvi, no. 1, July 1962, p . 70-8.

H I L L , Reuben; S T Y C O S , Mayone ; B A C K , Kurt. The family and population control. A Puerto-Rico experiment in social change. Chapel Hill, University of North Carolina Press, 1959. xxvi + 481 p . , bibliogr.

H I M E S , N o r m a n . Medical history of contraception. N e w York, G a m u t Press, 1963. liv + 521 p. , fig., graph., tabl., bibliogr.

H U T C H I N S O N , B . Fertility, social mobility and urban migration in Brazil. Population studies, vol. xrv, no. 3, March 1961, p . 182-9.

. Race differences in fertility: a note on their estimation in Brazil. Population studies, vol. xin, no. 2, November 1959, p . 151-6.

K L I N G E R , Andràs. A tàrsadalmi rétegenként diffenciàlt termékenység alakulàsa Magyaro-szàgon [Differential fertility patterns according to social class in H u n gary]. Demografía, vol. 4 , no. 4 , 1961, p . 421-31.

L E A S U R E , William. Factors involved in the decline of fertility in Spain 1900-1950. Population studies, vol. xvi, no. 3, March 1964, p . 271-85.

Select bibliography 325

Livi, Massimo. Sui fattori economici e sociali délia ripresa délia natalità nei paesi anglosassoni d'oltroceano. Rivista italiana di economía, demografía e statistica, vol. xrv, no. 4, October-December i960, p. 5-119.

M A T R A S , Judah. Differential fertility, intergenerational occupational mobility and change in the occupational distribution: some elementary interrelationships. Population studies, vol. xv, no. 2, November 1961, p. 187-97.

S T Y C O S , M a y o n e J. Culture and differential fertility in Peru. Population studies, vol. xvi, no. 3, M a r c h 1963, p . 257-70.

M O D , Aladàrné. Szuletésszàm es életszinvonal [Birth rates and levels of living]. Demografía, vol. 4 , no. 3, 1961, p . 309-24.

N A G , M . Factors affecting human fertility in non-industrial societies: a cross-cultural study. N e w Haven , Yale University, Department of Anthropology, 1962. 227 p . (Yale university publications in anthropology 66.)

N A L I N E E D A T T A . Influence of seasoned variations on the reproductive cycles of w o m e n . Population review, vol. 4, no. 1, January 1960, p. 46-55, bibliogr.

N I X O N , J. W . S o m e demographic characteristics of Protestants and Catholics in Switzerland. Revue de l'Institut international de statistique, vol. 29, no. 3, 1961, p. 13-28.

R A I N W A T E R , Lee. And the poor get children. Sex, contraception and family planning in the working-class. Chicago, Quadrangle Books, i960. 202 p. , bibliogr.

R E L E , J. R . Fertility differentials in India: evidence from a rural background. Milbank Memorial Fund quarterly (The), vol. X L I , no. 2, April 1963, p. 183-99.

Research in family planning, edited by K I S E R , Clyde. Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1962, xv + 662 p.

R I Z K , H . Social and psychological factors effecting fertility in the United Arab Republic. Marriage and family living, vol. 25, no. 1, February 1963, p. 69-73.

R O B I N S O N , W . Urban-rural differences in Indian fertility. Population studies, vol. xrv, no. 3, M a r c h 1961, p. 218-34.

R O T H , Gérard. Étude de la fertilité de 300 mères de schizophrènes. Acta genética et statistica medica, vol. 9, no. 4, 1959, p. 284-305, bibliogr.

S A V O R G N A N , Mario. Il diritto di primogenitura e la fecondità matrimoniale dei primogeniti e dei cadetti nell'alta aristocrazia. Rivista italiana di economía, demografía e statistica, vol. xv, no. 3-4, July-December 1961, p. 243-54.

S T Y S , Wincenty. Wspolzaleznosc rozwoju rodziny chlopskiej I jej gospodarstwa [Correlation between the size of peasant families and the size of their holdings]. Wroclaw, Panstwowe wydawnictwo naukove, 1959. 556 p. , bibliogr.

W E S T O F F , Charles; P O T T E R , Robert; S A G I , Philip. The third child. A study in the prediction of fertility. Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1963. 293 p.

; P O T T E R , Robert; S A G I , Philip; M I S H L E R , Elliot. Family growth in metropolitan America. Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1961. 433 p.

W R O N G , Dennis. Class fertility differentials in England and Wales. Milbank Memorial Fund quarterly (The), vol. xxxvni, no. 1, January i960, p. 37-47.

Y A U K E Y , David. Fertility differences in a modernizing country. A survey of Lebanese couples. Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1961. 204 p., bibliogr.

Y E R A C A R I S , Constantine. Differentials in the relationship between values and practices in fertility. Social forces, vol. 38, no. 2, December 1959, p. 153-8.

REPRODUCTION

G E B H A R D , P.; P O M E R O Y , W . ; M A R T I N , C ; C H R I S T E N S O N , C . Pregnancy, birth and abortion. London, William Heinemann Medical Books, 1959. 282 p., bibliogr.

B L A K E , Judith, in collaboration with S T Y C O S , M a y o n e and D A V I S , Kinsley. Family structure in Jamaica. The social context of reproduction. N e w York, Glencoe, T h e Free Press, 1961. 262 p., bibliogr.

M O R T A R A , Giorgio. Saggi di metodología demográfica. R o m a , Stabilimento tipográfico

326 Select bibliography

Fausto Filii, 1963. 81 p . , bibliogr. (Coll. Pubblicazioni dell'Istituto di demografía, 10.)

P E R R I N , E d w a r d B . ; S H E P S , Mindel. H u m a n reproduction: a stochastic model . Biometrics, vol. 20, no . 1, M a r c h 1964, p . 28-45, bibliogr.

MORTALITY

Techniques and problems of measurement and analysis

Analyse factorielle des taux de mortalité par âge et par sexe. Contribution à l'étude des dimensions de la mortalité. Bulletin démographique des Nations Unies, no. 6 , 1962, p. 159-210.

C H A K R A B O R T Y , B . A . Study of mortality patterns in Calcutta city, 1959-1960 (on a methodology for the calculation of intrinsic death rate from registration data). Population review, vol. 7, no. 2 , July 1963, p . 68-80.

G E R S H E N S O N , Harry. Measurement of mortality. Chicago, Society of Actuaries, 1961.

340 P-H E N R Y , Louis. Mesure indirecte de la mortalité des adultes. Population, vol. 15,

no. 3, April-June i960, p. 457-66. KILPATRICK, S. J. Occupational mortality indices. Population studies, vol. xvi, no. 2,

November 1962, p. 175-85. MASCIOTTI , Rodolfe. Una formula ricorrente per il calcólo délia popolazione e per

il controle dei sondaggi sulla mortalita. In: XVIth International Congress of Actuaries, 15-22 June ig6o, Brussels, vol. II, p . 527-44. Liège, Georges Thone , 682 p .

S A C H E R , G . A . ; T R U C C O , E . T h e stochastic theory of mortality. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, vol. 96, no . 4 , M a r c h 1962, p . 985-1007.

Mortality studies (statistical studies of specific populations or groups)

A C O S T A , Jorge; S Z A U E R , Jorge. Evolución reciente de la mortalidad en Colombia. In: XVIthe International Congress of Actuaries, 15-22 June i960, Brussels, vol. II, p. 354-63. Liège, Georges Thone, 682 p.

A C S A D I , Gyorgy; P A L L O S , Emil. A halandosag elorebeclêse népessegi prognozi-sokhoz. [Evaluation of mortality as a factor in demographic forecasting in H u n gary]. Statisztikai szemle, vol. 30, no. 10, October 1961, p. 984-1008.

B A C K E R , Julie. Dodelighten eg dens Arsaker i Norge 1856-1955 [Trend of mortality and causes of death in Norway 1856-1955]. Oslo, Statistik Sentralbyra, 1961. 246 p.

B R E Z N I K , Dusan; SEKARIC, Novak. Smrtnost stanovnistva Jugoslavije prema starosti i polu [Mortality in the Yugoslav population, by age and sex, from 1952 to 1961]. Stanovnistvo, ist year, no. 2, April-June 1963, p. 224-42.

Buus, Hans. Investigations of mortality variations. In: XVIth International Congress of Actuaries, 15-22 June i960, Brussels, vol. II, p. 364-78. Liège, Georges Thone, 682 p.

C H A S T E L A N D , Jean-Claude. Évolution générale de la mortalité en Europe occidentale de 1900-1950. Population, vol. 15, no. 1, January-March i960, p. 59-88.

C Z E R M A K , Hans; H A N S L U W K A , Harald. Gesundheitsprobleme der Jugend. Eine medizinal-statistische Studie Über Morbidität und Mortalität im Kindesund Jugendlichenalter in Osterreich. Vienna, Verlag Brüder Hollinek, 1963. 234 p., bibliogr. (Veröffentlichungen des Österreichischen Institutes für Jugendkunde, 5.)

D E P O I D , Pierre. Étude de la mortalité des Polytechniciens. Journal de la société de statistique de Paris, no. 7-8-9, July-August-September 1962, p. 163-85.

L E W , Edward A . The trend of mortality in the United States. In: XVIth International Congress of Actuaries. Vol. II, p. 444-67. Liège, Georges Thone. 682 p.

M A R T I N , L . V . Mortality trends in Great Britain and some comparisons with other

Select bibliography 327

countries. In: XVIth International Congress of Actuaries, 15-22 June ig6o, Brussels, vol. II, p. 327-41. Liège, Georges Thone, 682 p.

N A D D E O , Alighiero. La mortalita in Italia dopo il 1950. R o m a , stabilimento tipográfico Fausto Failli, 1959. 32 p. (Pubblicazioni dell'Istituto di demografía, 3.)

N O V A K , Antonin. Srovnani umrtnosti obyvatelstva S.S.R. a U . S . H . [Comparison of the mortality of the populations of the U.S .S .R . and the U . S . A . ] . Demografie, vol. m , no. 3, 1961, p. 247-52.

S A K A T A N I , Tamotsu. Japanese mortality in the past sixty years. In: XVIth International Congress of Actuaries, 15-22 June i960, Brussels. Vol. II, p . 588-608. Liège, Georges T h o n e . 682 p .

T A R V E R , James D . Projections of mortality in the U . S . Milbank Memorial Fund quarterly (The), vol. X X X V I I , no . 2, April 1959, p . 132-43.

T h e situation and recent trends of mortality in the world. Population Bulletin of the United Nations, no. 6, 1962, p . 5-153.

Mortality studies (analyses of causes and effects of observed patterns, differential mortality)

G L A S S , D . V . S o m e indicators of differences between urban and rural mortality in England and Wales and Scotland. Population studies, vol. xvii, no . 3, M a r c h 1964, p . 263-67.

L E D E R M A N N , Sully. Estimations de l'espérance de vie à la naissance par catégorie professionnelle en France. Population, vol. 15, no. 1, January-March i960, p . 127-

31-S C A R D O V I , ítalo. Alcuni aspetti délia mortalita differenziale da tumore maligno. R o m a ,

Stabilimento tipográfico Fausto Failli, 1961. 109 p . (Publicazioni dell'Istituto di demografía, 8.)

S E I D M A N , Herbert; G A R F I N K E L , Lawrence; C R A I G , Léonard. Death rates in N e w York City by socio-economic class and religious group and by country of birth 1949-1951. Jewish journal of sociology (The), vol. iv, no. 2 , December 1962, p . 254-

73-U P C H U R C H , Harley. A tentative approach to the study of mortality differentials

between educational strata in the U . S . Rural sociology, vol. 27, no. 2 , June 1962, p . 213-7.

Studies of infant mortality

A R B E L O C U R B E L O . La mortalidad de la infancia en España 1901-1950. Madrid, Instituto Balmes de Sociologia y Dirección General de Sanidad, 1962. 608 p .

C H A N D R A S E K H A R , Iripati. Infant mortality in India 1901-55; a matter of life and death. L o n d o n , Allen and U n w i n , 1959. 175 p .

L a diminution de la mortalité prématurée, principal facteur d u nouvel essor de la démographie française. Bulletin de l'Institut national d'hygiène, vol. 15, no. 3, M a y -June i960, p . 539-52.

F E D E R I C I , Nora. Aspetti sociali délia mortalita infantile a R o m a . Statistica, vol. xxiv, no. 1, January-March 1964, p . 79-94.

F ö n , Janos. A z anya egeszégi allapotanak es szociales Korülményeinek hatàasa a magzat es az ujezü lött élektépességére [Effects of maternal health and social situation on viability of foetus and neo-nates]. Demografia, vol. 5, no. 3, 1962, p . 336-60, bibliogr.

G I R A R D , Alain; H E N R Y , Louis; N I S T R I , Roland. Facteurs sociaux et culturels de la mortalité infantile. Une enquête sur le comportement des familles dans le Nord-Est et le Pas-de-Calais. Paris, Presses universitaires de France, i960. 210 p . (Coll. Travaux et documents de l ' I N E D , 36.)

H A A S - P O S T H U M É , J. H . de. Perinatale sterfte in Nederland onderzoek naar factoren, die de périnatale sterfte beinvloeden. Assebn, V a n G o r c u m , 1962. 223 p . , bibliogr.

H A N S L U W K A , Harald. Die Säuglingssterblichkeit in Österreich und in anderen L ä n -

328 Select bibliography

d e m im Lichte der Statistik. Mitteilungen der österreichischen Sanitätsverwaltung, vol. 63, no. 5, 196a. 12 p.

H E A D Y , J. A . ; H E A S M A N N , M . A . Social and biological factors in infant mortality. London, Her Majesty's Stationery Office, 1959. 195 p. (General Register Office. Studies on medical and population subjects, 15.)

H E N R I P I N , Jacques. L'inégalité sociale devant la mort, la mortinatalité et la mortalité infantile à Montréal. Recherches sociographiques, no. 1, January-March 1961,

P- 3-34-K U C E R A , Jiri. Podil vrozenych vad na kojenecké umrtnosti v ceskych krajich v

roce 1959 [Effects of congenital defects on infant mortality]. Demogrqfie, vol. rv, no. i, 1962, p. 51-8.

L E T A N V I N H ; M I S O N . Étude de la mortalité dans un hôpital pédiatrique (1406 autopsies). Bulletin de l'Institut national d'hygiène, vol. 18, no. 6, November-December 1963, p. 915-36.

M E E R D I N G , J.; R A M A C H A D R A M , K . V . La mortalité infantile selon le niveau social dans le grand Bombay . Population, vol. 16, no. 5, October-December 1961, P- 730-7-

M E L N O T T E ; N E I M A N N ; M A N C I A U X ; D A L E R . Pathologie pédiatrique régionale de la France du Nord-Est au cours des 20 dernières années. Revue d'hygiène et de médecine sociale, vol. 7, no. 7, October-November 1959, p. 571-96.

La mortalité infantile en France suivant le milieu social. Études statistiques, no. 3, July-September 1963, p. 163-72.

P R E S S Â T , Roland. Données récentes sur la mortalité infantile en France. Le concours médical, no. 8, 22 February 1964, p. 1257-65.

S C A R D O V I , ítalo. Argomenti e problemi per lo studio délia mortalità infantile selet-tiva. Statistica, vol. xxin, no. 4, October-December 1963, p. 474-93, bibliogr.

S T O C K W E L L , Edward. Infant mortality and socio-economic status. A changing relationship. Milbank Memorial Fund quarterly (The), vol. XL, no. I, January 1962, p. 101-11.

S U T T E R , Jean; L E D E R M A N N , Sully. Influence du rang de naissance sur la mortalité et les anomalies dans les familles consanguines. Population, vol. 14, no. 4, October-December 1959, p. 703-18.

S Z A B A D Y , Egon. A csecsemohalandosàgot befolyasolo tàarsadalmi es biologiai tényezok Magyarorszàgon [Social and biological factors in infant mortality in Hungary]. Demogrqfia, vol. 4, no. 4, 1961, p. 440-9.

W I L L I E , Charles; R O T H N E Y , William. Racial ethnic and income factors in the epidemiology of neonatal mortality. American sociological review, vol. 27, no. 4, August 1962, p. 522-6.

INTERNATIONAL MIGRATIONS

This section is confined to theoretical and statistical studies bearing on countries or continents, to the exclusion of internal regions or provinces. A P P L E Y A R D , R . T . The return movement of United Kingdom migrants from Aus

tralia. Population studies, vol. xv, no. 1, March 1962, p. 214-25. B A R G H I N I , Alessandro. Aspetti dei movimenti di popolazione nell'Africa occiden

tale. Quaderni di sociología rurale, vol. 3, no. 2-3, 1963, p. 76-89, bibliogr. B E S S E , Fernand. Les pays méditerranéens, réservoirs de main-d'œuvre. Études,

January 1964, p. 53-67. B O R R I E , W . D . The cultural integration of immigrants. Paris, Unesco, 1959. 297 p. B O U S C A R E N , Anthony. International migrations since IQ45. N e w York, Praeger, 1963.

176 p. B R U N O , Vincenzo. La diffusione territoriale délie migrazioni. Rivista italiana di

economía, demografía e statistica, vol. xiv, no. 1-2, January-June i960, p. 131-232. C E N T R E I N T E R N A T I O N A L D ' É T U D E D E S P R O B L È M E S H U M A I N S . Les déplacements humains :

Select bibliography 329

aspects méthodologiques de leur mesure. Sous la direction de Jean Sutter. Monaco , Sciences humaines, 1963. 240 p.

H E I D E . Migration models and their significance for population forecasts. Milbank Memorial Fund quarterly (The), vol. xii, no. 1, January 1963, p. 56-75.

H E M P E L , J. A . Italians in Queensland. Some aspects of post-war settlement of Italian immigrants. Australian National University, 1959. 185 p.

H O G L U N D , William A . Finnish immigrants in America 1880-igso. Madison, University of Wisconsin Press, i960, vi + 213 p.

International Migrations. 1945-1957. Geneva, International Labour Organisation, 1959. 462 p., bibliogr.

J U T I K K A L A , Eino. Geographical distribution of emigration in Finland. In: I N T E R N A T I O N A L U N I O N F O R T H E SCIENTIFIC S T U D Y O F P O P U L A T I O N . World Population

Conference, Vienna, 1959, p. 640-7. Vienna, 1959. 735 p. K U P E R , Hilda. Indian people in Natal. Natal, T h e University Press, i960, xx + 305 p L A N N E S , Xavier. Les migrations de travailleurs entre les pays du Marché c o m m u n .

Population, vol. 17, no. 1, January-March 1962, p. 29-50. L E E , Rose. The Chinese in the United States of America. H o n g - K o n g University Press

and Oxford University Press, i960. 465 p. Livi, Massimo. L'immigrazione e l'assimilazione degli Italiani negli Stati Uniti secondo

le statistiche americane. Milano, Dott. A . Giuffré, 1961. m p. M o N D A N i , Aristide. Contributo alla teoria analitica degli spostamenti di popo-

lazione. Statistica, vol. xxni, no. 3, July-September 1963, p. 327-59. O B L A T H , Attilio. Quelques conséquences démographiques des migrations inter

nationales. In: I N T E R N A T I O N A L U N I O N F O R T H E SCIENTIFIC S T U D Y O F P O P U L A T I O N .

World Population Conference, Vienna, 1959, p. 659-64. Vienna, 1959. 735 p. S A U V Y , Alfred; M O I N D R O T , Claude. Le renversement du courant d'immigration

séculaire. I. Considérations générales et perspectives pour l'ensemble Europe-Méditerranée. IL Application à l'Angleterre. Population, vol. 17, no. 1, January-March 1962, p. 51-64.

SMITH, T . Lynn. Migration from one Latin American country to another. In: INTERNATIONAL U N I O N F O R T H E SCIENTIFIC S T U D Y O F P O P U L A T I O N . World Popu

lation Conference, Vienna, 1959, p . 695-702. Vienna, 1959. 735 p . S T A R K , T . Les problèmes des migrations dans les pays sous-développés. Justice dans

le monde, vol. I, no. 3, i960, p . 357-76. T A B A H , Léon; C A T A L D I , Alberto. Effets d'une immigration dans quelques pays

modèles. Population, vol. 18, no. 4, October-December 1963, p . 683-96. T H O M L I N S O N , Ralph. A model for migration analysis. Journal of the American Statis

tical Association, vol. 56, no. 295, September 1961, p . 675-86. Travailleurs étrangers en France (Les). Notes et études documentaires, no. 3057,

23 June 1964. 30 p. V E L I K O N J A , Joseph. Italians in the U.S. (Bibliography). Carbondale Southern Illi

nois University, 1963. 90 p . (dupl.). (Department of Geography. Occasional papers, 1.)

Z U B R Z Y C K I , Jerzy; assisted by K U S K I E , Nancy. Immigrants in Australia. A demographic survey based upon the 1954 census. Melbourne, University Press, i960. 118 p .

INTERNAL MIGRATIONS

Literature under this heading is vast and the following section is therefore limited to statistical or methodological studies relating to countries as a whole to the exclusion of internal regions or provinces. Research workers in this field are advised to seek further references under the headings of rural de-population, urbanization or even professional migrations, which are mostly accompanied by geographical movements.

33° Select bibliography

A L B E R O N I , Francesco. Aspetti peculiari delle migrazione interne in rapporto ad altri tripi di migrazione italiane. Quademi di scienze sociali, vol. n , no. 2, M a r c h 1963, p . 151-76.

A Y U S O O R E J A V A , José. L a población agraria y las migraciones interiores en España. Estadística española, no. 5, October-December 1959, p . 57-63.

B A C H I , R . Algunos problemas demográficos de un país de inmigración: la experiencia de Israel. Ciencias políticas y sociales, no. 7, April-June, 1961, p . 145-72.

B A R B A N C H O , Alfonso G . Los movimientos migratorios en España. Revista de estudios agro-sociales, vol. ix, no. 33, October-December i960, p . 7-84.

B A R B E R I S , Corrado. Le migrazioni rurali in Italia. Milano, Feltrinelli, i960. 236 p . B E I J E R , G . Rural migrants in urban setting. An analysis of the literature on the problem

consequent on the internal migration from rural to urban areas in twelve European countries (ig45-ig6i). T h e H a g u e , Martinus Nijhoff, 1963. 327 p . , bibliogr.

B E L T R A M O N E , André. La mobilité géographique et professionnelle en France (1851-ig^). T w o volumes: 353 p. ; 139 p . , bibliogr.

B R A C E Y , H o w a r d . S o m e aspects of rural de-population in the United K i n g d o m . Rural sociology, vol. 23, no. 4 , December 1958, p . 385-91.

C H Â T E L A I N , Abel. Problèmes de méthodes: les migrations de population. Revue économique, no. 1, January 1963, p . 1-17, bibliogr.

C L É M E N T , Pierre; V I E I L L E , Paul. L'exode rural. Historique, causes et conditions. Sélectivité. Perspectives. Paris, Impr. nationale. 73 p . (Extrait d'Études de comptabilité nationale, no. I, April i960.)

D E S C H A M P S , Hubert. Les migrations intérieures à Madagascar. Paris, Berger-Levrault, 1959. 284 p . (Coll. L ' h o m m e d'outre-mer.)

G I R A R D , Alain; B A S T I D E , Henri; P O U R C H E R , G u y . Mobilité géographique et concentration urbaine en France. U n e enquête en province. Population, vol. 19, no. 2, April-May 1964, p . 227-66.

H A M I L T O N , Horace. S o m e problems of method in internal migration research. Population index, vol. 27, no. 4 , October 1961, p . 297-307, bibliogr.

J U I L L A R D , Etienne. U n e méthode d'utilisation du fichier électoral: bilan, migrations et 'mobilité' d 'une population. Application au département du Bas-Rhin. Revue géographique de l'Est, no. 3, July-September 1961, p . 195-203.

L E E , Everett S.; Lee, A n n e S . Internai migration statistics for the United States. Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 55, no. 292, December 1960, p . 664-97.

L O W E N T H A L , D . ; CoMiTAS, L . Emigration and depopulation. S o m e neglected aspects of population geography. Geographical review, vol. LII, no. 2 , April 1962, p . 195-210.

Peuplement (Le) et les migrations intérieures en France métropolitaine. Paris, Alliance nationale pour la vitalité française, 1961. 107 p .

F O U R C H E R , G u y . Le peuplement de Paris. Origine régionale. Composition sociale. Attitudes et motivations. Avant-propos de R a y m o n d Haas-Picard. Paris, Presses universitaires de France, 1964. 311 p . , bibliogr. (Coll. Travaux et documents de P I N E D . Cahier 43.)

P R É S I D E N C E D U C O N S E I L . H a u t Comité consultatif de la population et de la famille. Aperçus socio-démographiques sur les mouvements horizontaux de population en Afrique occidentale par T h o m a s . Dakar , 1959. 225 p .

U N I T E D S T A T E S D E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E . Recent population trends in the United States with emphasis on rural areas. 1963. 48 p . , m a p , bibliogr. (United States Department of Agriculture. Economie research service agricultural economic report, 23.)

S A V O R G N A N , Mari. U n nuovo spunto demográfico nel censimento svedese del 1920. Rivista italiana di economía, demografía e statistica, vol. xv, no. 3-4, July-December 1961, p . 382-5.

S H R Y O C K , Henry S. Population mobility within the United States. Chicago, University of Chicago C o m m u n i t y and Family Study Center [1964]. 470 p .

SoMOGYi, Stefano. L a mobilita interna della popolazione italiana. Rivista italiana di

Select bibliography 33 !

economía, demografía e statistica, vol. xrv, no. 3, July-September i960, p. 17-43. T A E U B E R , Karl E . Duration of residence analysis of internal migration in the United

States. Milbank Memorial Fund quarterly (The), vol. xxxix, no. 1, January 1961, p. 117-31.

T A E U B E R , Karl E . ; H A E N Z E L , W . ; S I R K E N , Monroe. Residence histories and exposure residences for the United States population. Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 56, no. 296, December 1961, p. 824-33, bibliogr.

T H O M A S , Dorothy S. Internal migration in Sweden: a recent study. Population index, vol. 29, no. 2, p. 125-9.

V I N C E N T , L . A . L'exode agricole en France depuis 1900: sa liaison avec les taux de productivité et les élasticités de consommation. Études et conjoncture, vol. 18, no. 2, February 1963, p. 120-40.

The world

of the social sciences

Current studies

Toward a sociological almanac

of legal systems1

William M . Evan

T h e United Nations publishes a variety of demographic and statistical yearbooks and m a n y countries of the world publish various encyclopedias. Nevertheless, if the sociologist or the legal scholar interested in comparing legal systems consults these sources, he will look in vain for basic structural items of information essential for a comparative analysis.

T h e importance of the comparative method in developing a body of generalizations and in theory construction is more widely appreciated in cultural anthropology than in sociology.2 In fact, Radcliffe-Brown defines cultural anthropology as 'comparative sociology'. T h e H u m a n Relations Area Files ( H R A F ) , developed by Murdock and his colleagues, represents an effort to collect and process ethnographic data on a world-wide sample of societies.3 Since this archive was established, several monographs, beginning with Murdock's entitled Social Structure, have been published.4 Probably these significant theoretical studies would not have been possible without the H R A F . M o r e recently, Murdock has established a n e w journal entitled Ethnology which publishes bimonthly an 'ethnographic atlas' that records data from various ethnographies in a multi-category system first drawn up by Murdock himself and since elaborated by others.

i. Prepared for a meeting of the Research Committee on the Sociology of L a w of the International Sociological Association, St. Vincent, Italy, 8 to 13 September 1964.

2. See, for example, John W . M . Whiting, ' T h e cross-cultural method', in Gardner Lindsey, ed., Handbook of Social Psychology, Vol. 1, Cambridge, Mass., Addison-Wesley Publishing C o . , T954> P- 523"3i; Oscar Lewis, 'Comparisons in cultural anthropology', in: F . W . Moore, ed., Readings in Cross-Cultural Methodology, N e w Haven , Conn. H R A F Press, 1961, p . 55-88. For an expression of the growing interest among sociologists and political scientists in comparative research, see: Seymour M . Lipset, The First New Nation : The United States in Historical and Comparative Perspective, N e w York, Basic Books, Inc., 1963; Harry Eckstein and David Apter, eds., Comparative Politics, N e w York, T h e Free Press, 1963.

3. G . P . Murdock et al., Outline of Cultural Materials, 3rd revised edition, N e w Haven , Conn. , H R A F , Inc., 1950; 'World ethnographic sample', American Anthropologist, vol. n x , 1957, p. 664-87.

4 . G . P . Murdock, Social Structure, N e w York, Macmillan, 1949; Stanley H . U d y , Jr., Organization of Work: A Comparative Analysis of Production among Non-Industrial Peoples, N e w Haven , Conn. , H R A F Press, 1959; G u y E . Swanson, The Birth of the Gods, A n n Arbor, Mich. University of Michigan Press, i960.

Int. Soc. Set. J., Vol. XVII, N o . 2, 1965

336 The world of the social sciences

T h u s far, at least two efforts have been m a d e to analyse legal phenom e n a by using this repository of information. In a study by Schwartz and Miller, the authors draw on data from the H R A F to investigate the evolution of legal institutions as related to societal complexity.1 Another study using the H R A F data for a sample of cultures investigates the relationship between technical complexity and legal complexity.2

Valuable as this archive is to the anthropologist, it appears to have limited utility for the sociologist of law because it is confined largely to non-literate societies. W h e n w e turn our attention to literate societies, whether industrial, traditional, or transitional, w e find that there is no readily available source of comparable information on legal systems. In the 1920's, W i g m o r e , a renowned legal scholar, attempted to gather such data but from a very limited perspective.3

Clearly this is a problem that requires the planned creation of an archive or 'data bank', for no repositories exist to answer the need of the sociologist of law. Such an archive must be planned, it is not likely to c o m e into being spontaneously. Surely the legal system of a society is as m u c h an attribute of a nation-state as the population structure or the occupational system, about which the United Nations gathers data for its statistical yearbooks. But, no analogous data-gathering operation has been proposed for legal systems by the United Nations or by any other international organization.

T h e purpose of the present proposal is to initiate such a research effort by sending out questionnaires to the ministries of justice of 115 nation-states of the world. T h e resulting data would be processed and might be published under the title, ' A sociological almanac of legal systems'. Before the content of such a questionnaire can be decided, some concept of a legal system needs, of course, to be formulated. W e propose to do so tentatively in very broad terms, to wit, w e define a legal system as a set of institutions comprising norms, roles, and patterns of behaviour pertaining to judicial, legislative, executive, and administrative processes of a society.4 Guided by this very broad concept of a legal system, w e have set forth in the appendix at the end of this article a tentative list of items of information which, ideally, w e would wish to have about the legal systems of each of the nation-states of the world.

Given data on some, if not all, of the 115 nation-states, it would be possible to develop various ratios and indexes to characterize their legal systems. W e would thus be able to investigate, for example, the relation between crime rates and the size of the police force, the amount of delay in

1. Richard D . Schwartz and James C . Miller, 'Legal evolution and societal complexity', American Journal of Sociology, vol. xx, September 1964, p. 159-69.

2. William M . Evan, 'Technology and law: a cross-cultural analysis' (in the press). 3. John Henry Wigmore, A Panorama of the World's Legal Systems, 3 vols., St. Paul, Minn.,

West Publishing Co., 1928. 4. William M . Evan, 'Public and private legal systems', in: William M . Evan, ed., Law and

Sociology: Exploratory Essays, New York, The Free Press, 1962, p. 165-84; 'Law as an Instrument of Social Change', Estudios de Sociología, vol. 2, 1962, p. 171-2.

Current studies 337

civil suits related to the ratio of judges to population, the ratio of lawyers to population, and the ratio of courts to population. Moreover, such a data bank as w e are proposing could be enriched substantially if it were linked with the extensive occupational and economic information that the United Nations annually collects on all its members . Given such a linkage of data banks, w e could investigate, for example, the relationship between the gross national product of a country and its incidence of contract cases.

T h e proposal sketched above was approved by the Research Committee on the Sociology of L a w of the International Sociological Association at its meeting in St. Vincent, Italy, from 8 to 13 September 1964. T h e implementation of the proposal requires the solution of both intellectual and administrative problems. T h e intellectual problem consists principally of developing a more comprehensive list of items than the tentative list presented in the appendix. As important as expanding the list is the development of precise and operational definitions of its terms and phrases so as to give them meanings reasonably similar in all the 115 nation-state.

T h e administrative problem of implementing this proposal is twofold: (a) the financing of the project through Unesco, the United Nations Secretariat, the Centro Nazionale di Prevenzione e Difesa Sociale of Milan, some other governmental granting agency, or a private foundation; (b) the recruitment of an editor, or possibly an editorial team of a sociologist and a jurist, to guide the collection and processing of the data from the various ministries of justice.

T h e administrative problems are probably easier to solve than the intellectual ones. For this reason, I wish to re-emphasize the provisional character of the proposed list of items for the almanac that appears in the appendix. Moreover, I should like to invite the readers of this article to send to the author or to the Chairman of the Research Committee on the Sociology of L a w of the International Sociological Association, Professor Renato Treves, of the University of Milan, any suggestions for modifying, extending, or defining the terms of the items in the list set forth below.

T o s u m up, the purpose of the proposed sociological almanac of legal systems is to bring together between the covers of one book some rudimentary information about the legal systems of the world. Such a corpus of information would, in all likelihood, stimulate comparative research in the ociology of law. T h e publication of an edition of such an almanac everys ten years, would yield a wealth of both comparative and historical data on the legal systems of the world.

A P P E N D I X

Provisional list of items of information for a sociological almanac of legal systems (for any year between ig/So-64) l

1. Size of population. 2. N u m b e r of lawyers; (a) solicitors; (b) barristers; (c) total.

1. Each item of information relates either to an entire country or to the principal city, if data are not available for an entire country.

338 T h e world of the social sciences

3. N u m b e r of judges: (a) professional trained; (b) 'lay'judges, 'justices of peace', 'social judges'.

4. Total number of courts. 5. (a) Enumeration of types of courts according to type of cases handled, e.g.,

civil, criminal, traffic, law, etc.; (b) number of courts of each type. 6. N u m b e r of levels of courts from the lowest to the highest. 7. N u m b e r of courts at each level in the judicial system. 8. N u m b e r of non-legal personnel (clerks, etc.) employed by all courts. 9. N u m b e r of administrative agencies or administrative courts.

10. N u m b e r of officials in administrative agencies or courts (excluding policemen). 11. N u m b e r of policemen (at all governmental levels). 12. N u m b e r of legislators or members of parliament. 13. N u m b e r of legislators or members of parliament w h o have a law degree. 14. N u m b e r of law schools. 15. N u m b e r of law school teachers. 16. N u m b e r of law school graduates. 17. N u m b e r of legal periodicals (quarterly, monthly, or more often). 18. Enumeration of courses offered by two or three principal law schools. 19. N u m b e r of criminal cases. ao. N u m b e r of tort cases (i.e., recovery of d a m a g e suits). 21. N u m b e r of contract cases: (a) involving enterprises or organizations; (^involv

ing private persons; (c) total number of contract cases. 22. N u m b e r of traffic cases. 23. (a) N u m b e r of divorce suits; (b) number of legal separations. 24. N u m b e r of cases handled by administrative agencies or administrative courts. 25. N u m b e r of arbitrators: (a) commercial arbitrators; (b) labour arbitrators. 26. N u m b e r of cases of arbitration: (a) commercial arbitration cases; (b) labour

arbitration cases. 27. Year in which last constitution was written. 28. N u m b e r of amendments or revisions to constitution. 29. N u m b e r of articles or clauses in constitution. 30. Enumeration of codes of law by date of issue. 31. N u m b e r of months of delay from initiation of a tort case to trial (within one

level of jurisdiction). 32. N u m b e r of months of delay from initiation of a contract case to trial (within

one level of jurisdiction). 33. N u m b e r of all types of cases tried at the lowest or trial court level. 34. N u m b e r of cases reviewed by higher or appellate court levels. 35. N u m b e r of personnel employed in the Ministry of Justice. 36. N u m b e r of employees with law degrees employed in Ministry of Justice. 37. N u m b e r of employees with law degrees employed in administrative agencies

or administrative courts (not including Ministry of Justice).

ioi. List of basic bibliographical sources on the judiciary. 102. List of basic bibliographical sources on the legislature. 103. List of basic bibliographical sources on the executive branch of the govern

ment. 104. List of basic bibliographical sources on the administrative agencies or admini

strative courts.

William M . Evan is Associate Professor of Sociology and Industrial Management in the Sloan School of Management of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Letters to the Editor

Images of Man

From: Mrs . Irving G R E E N B A U M

Your recent issue devoted to 'Data in comparative research'1 has indicated the vast potential in avenues of social science research. T h e research archives can make possible social explorations inaccessible in previous social science history. I should like to indicate one such research possibility which occurs to m e to be worthy of such exploration, and has hitherto been impossible.

Dr . Leopold Rosenmayr, writing in the 1962 International Social Science Journal issue devoted to 'Images of w o m e n ' , touched on the subject of the extension of family functions when the m a n of the family left to work outside the h o m e during the western industrial revolution. H e indicated h o w inadequate is the data to describe the effect of this change on the family and on society. H e refers to but one early G e r m a n work which gives some little insight into this problem. H e further points out the desirability of more information on the subject.

In the family life of industrialized western society, the accepted norm is the absence of the father for most of the time, and the trend is toward the mother assuming more and more the functions of child rearing, social life, community activity, in addition to housekeeping functions. M u c h concern is expressed over the effects of the w o m a n leaving the h o m e , but almost none over the long absences of the m a n .

A n d often there is uncertainty over just what the man ' s role is inside the h o m e . Should the father help with child care? Is the m a n expected to help with h o m e -making? W h o is the 'boss' in the home? A n d so on. These questions have little meaning when applied to pre-industrial societies, where home-making and child rearing are more clearly shared functions between the husband and the wife.

It seems to m e that in this rapidly changing world, with its wide variations in stages of economic and social development, and the vast amount of research data, it might be possible to locate in microcosm conditions reasonably similar to the western industrial revolution. F r o m a study of such conditions, it m a y be possible to probe the effects on the family and society of man 's movement outside the h o m e .

It further seems to m e that valuable work could be done on 'Images of M a n ' . A clarification of family functions and responsibilities of m e n , as well as w o m e n , inside the h o m e would be valuable guides in both the developing countries and the technologically advanced areas of western society.

I hope some of your readers find this suggestion worthy of further exploration. I a m most interested in learning the results of such study.

Columbus, Ohio. U . S . A .

1. Vol. X V I , No . 1, 1964.

Int. Soc. Sei. J., Vol. XVII, N o . 2, 1965

Research and teaching centres

and professional bodies1

N e w centres

and changes of address

N e w institutions

international Association Internationale d'Études d u Sud-est Européen, g rue I. C . Frimu,

Bucharest. Centre d'Études Sociales de l'Afrique Occidentale, Bobo-Dioulasso, Haute

Volta. (Provisionally: Centre Social d'Hamdallaye.) United Nations Research Institute for Social Development, c/o Palais des Nations,

Geneva 10.

Federal Republic of Germany C o m u n i d a d de Trabajo de los Institutos Alemanes de Estudios sobre America

Latina. (Provisionally: Sozialforschungsstelle an der Universität Münster, R h e i n l a n d d a m m 199, D o r t m u n d . )

Netherlands Institute of Social Psychology, State University of Utrecht, Utrecht. Seminarium voor Massapsychologie Openbare M e n i n g en Propaganda van de

Universiteit van Amsterdam, Herengracht C . Netherlands

Steinmetz Stichting (Steinmetz Foundation: Archives for storing and making accessible existing social science research data), Herengracht 457, Amsterd a m C .

United States of America Social Sciences Curriculum Study Center, University of Illinois, U r b a n a , Illinois. Social Studies Curriculum Development Center, Carnegie Institute of Tech

nology, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Changes of address

International Asociación Latino-Americana de Sociología, c/o Professor A . Poviña (President),

Instituto de Sociología, Raul A . Orgas, Calle Trejo 241, Cordoba, Argentina. [Formerly: A v d a . Figueroa Alcorta 2263, Buenos Aires, Argentine.] International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, B o x 2020, Yale

Station, N e w H a v e n , Connecticut. [Formerly: 2 D e a n Trench Street, London S W i . ]

1. For cumulative index to this section, see Vol. X V I , No. 1, 1964, p. 117.

Int. Soc. Sei. J., Vol. XVII, No. s. 196s

Research and teaching centres and professional bodies 341

International

The work of the United Nations in demography

Acute, world-wide concern with population problems is a recent development and it is only since 1962 that these problems and the question of United Nations involvement in attempts to moderate population growth in some countries have come under full-scale debate in the General Assembly. But the interests and activities of the United Nations in the field of demography are of m u c h longer standing. In 1946, the Economic and Social Council gave recognition to the importance of demographic aspects of economic and social problems, and to the c o m m o n interest of the M e m b e r States in improving knowledge in this sphere, by creating the Population Commission as one of the Council's subsidiary bodies. Although a minority of the Council's members took the position at that time that the work of the Organization relating to population questions should be confined mainly to such activities as would properly be the concern of the Statistical Commission, the majority view was that the scope of the work should be broader and that its importance justified the creation of a separate functional commission.

T h e Population Commission, which holds biennial sessions of two weeks' duration, is composed of expert representatives of eighteen M e m b e r States elected for four-year terms by the Economic and Social Council. Under its terms of reference, it has the responsibility of arranging for studies and advising the Council on: (a) the size and structure of populations and the changes therein; (b) the interplay of demographic factors and economic and social factors; (c) policies designed to influence the size and structure of populations, and the changes therein; (d) any other demographic questions on which either the principal or the subsidiary organs of the United Nations or the specialized agencies m a y seek advice.

T h e Commission's counterpart in the Secretariat is the Population Branch of the Bureau of Social Affairs, essentially a demographic research office which takes primary responsibility for carrying out the studies and otfier activities recommended by the Commission.

O n the question of population policy, the Commission has hitherto maintained a neutral position, considering that it was for the Government of each country to decide its o w n policy and to adopt such measures as it might find necessary and appropriate for dealing with national population problems. It would hardly have been possible to do otherwise, since it became apparent at the Commission's first session that the Governments were sharply divided in their views on population policies and on the nature of the relationships between population on the one hand and economic and social conditions, levels of living and national welfare on the other. T h e Commission therefore focused its attention on ways and means of promoting the development and dissemination of knowledge which would narrow the limits of controversy in this field and strengthen the basis for national decisions on policy and action programmes. The attitude which the Commission has maintained from the beginning is reflected by this statement in the report of its tendí session (1959):

It is not the Population Commission's task to suggest the policies that any Government of any M e m b e r State should pursue. Its interest lies in doing all that it can to see that the knowledge of population trends and their interrelations with social and economic factors is widened and deepened, and that this knowledge is brought to the attention of Governments. Each Government, the Commission believes, has a responsibility to study the interrelations between population growth and economic and social progress as fully as possible on its o w n initiative, and to

342 The world of the social sciences

take the results of the study of these matters into account in formulating and implementing its policies. This responsibility is particularly heavy w h e n a fast rate of population growth is occurring under conditions of widespread poverty.

Thus the Population Commission's primary interest has been in research in d e m o g raphy in the broad sense, that is, the study of population numbers, characteristics, and changes as they relate to other features of society and economy. It has e m p h a sized especially, though not exclusively, research on the demography of the less developed countries, since these are the countries where, in general, the problems of population are most important at present, and since it is a major objective of the United Nations to promote the development of these countries. Under the Population Commission's sponsorship, a programme of demographic studies of world-wide scope but with special emphasis on die less developed countries has been conducted by the Secretariat in the Population Branch. Regional demographic research programmes on a smaller scale have been undertaken by the secretariats of the United Nations Economic Commissions for Africa ( E C A ) , Asia and the Far East ( E C A F E ) , and Latin America ( E C L A ) ; in recent years, these regional commissions have displayed increasing interest in demographic aspects of regional economic and social problems. In addition, efforts have been m a d e to encourage and assist the development of demographic research at the national level in less developed countries, by providing facilities for training of demographic research workers and other activities sponsored by the Population Commission and the regional economic commissions.

But the work of the United Nations aimed at 'widening and deepening k n o w ledge' of population characteristics and trends has by no means been limited to the activities relating directly to demographic research which are the special subject of this paper. Also very important in this connexion is the work, sponsored by the Statistical Commission and carried out mainly by the Statistical Office of the United Nations, in the field of demographic statistics. M u c h has been done to encourage and assist Governments, especially those of less developed countries, in taking population censuses, establishing and improving vital statistics systems, and carrying out demographic sample surveys, so as to extend the scope and improve the quality of the numerical data which are the indispensable foundation of research in demography. T h e Demographic Yearbook and other statistical compendia published by the United Nations Statistical Office have played a major part in disseminating information on population questions and providing material for demographic studies on an international scale. T h e Population Commission, although it is not primarily responsible for United Nations work in this field, has taken a continuing, active interest in it and m a d e important contributions by its suggestions and recommendations to the Statistical Commission on substantive aspects of the demographic statistical programmes.

DEMOGRAPHIC STUDIES CARRIED OUT BY T H E UNITED NATIONS SECRETARIAT

A selected bibliography of principal research reports and technical papers in the field of demography published by the United Nations is appended to this text. T h e following brief review refers mainly to those prepared by the Population Bianch in the Secretariat at United Nations Headquarters, which are of the widest international interest, but attention is also invited to the publications of the regional economic commissions which contain important contributions to knowledge of the demography of the respective regions. Numerical references in the following text relate to the numbered items of the bibliography.

As a research office, the Population Branch has the advantage of wide connexions with national statistical offices and other governmental agencies and institutions concerned with demographic studies throughout the world. It also possesses an internationally recruited staff able to handle materials in m a n y languages, familiar

Research and teaching centres and professional bodies 343

with the demographic literature, statistical systems, and economic and social conditions of m a n y countries, and aware of the different points of view of scholars in different parts of the world as regards the interpretation of demographic, economic, and social phenomena and their interrelations. These advantages are especially useful in studies of wide international scope, above all in studies that are not purely technical but involve interpretive judgements. Their utility was particularly apparent in the work on the publication, The Determinants and Consequences of Population Trends [ i ]1 , which is regarded as one of the most valuable contributions of the United Nations to demographic literature.

A n attempt was m a d e in this project to summarize the state of knowledge of principal aspects of the interrelations of demographic, economic, and social factors. T h e publication has been widely used as a bibliographical and substantive reference work, orientation for on-going research, and aid to teaching in d e m o graphy. A revised, up-dated, and expanded edition is n o w being prepared. In compiling the original work, the Secretariat had the benefit of contributions from a n u m b e r of experts and institutions and such contributions for the revised edition are n o w being obtained on a larger scale from various parts of the world. Several of the United Nations specialized agencies are also co-operating in this work.

T h e making of future population estimates on an internationally comparable basis for countries, regions, and the world as a whole has been a continuing activity of the Population Branch and successively revised series of such estimates have been published on several occasions. In preparing the latest series [3], an effort was m a d e to take account of the assumptions and results of recent projections prepared in various countries. T h e estimates in provisional form have also been circulated to agencies, institutions, and experts in m a n y countries with a request for comments and a view to preparation of revised estimates; in this w a y the handicap due to the impossibility of being fully informed of relevant work and pertinent conditions in all the countries of the world can be partly overcome. T h e offices of the regional economic commissions and regional demographic training and research centres are also active in making regional and country series of future population estimates.

Surveys of different aspects of the demographic situation in the world and various regions are another important part of the demographic work of the United Nations. A report on a world-wide survey of mortality conditions and trends has been published [8] and a report on a survey of fertility conditions and trends is in press [9] while work proceeds on a world survey of urban and rural population growth since 1920. Although the breadth of geographical scope of such surveys precludes any deep-probing analysis, they m a y m a k e important contributions to the understanding of demographic phenomena and point to important questions for further research. In the world survey of fertility, for example, the comparison of simple measures of fertility level and trends in a large n u m b e r of areas exhibiting diverse social, economic, and cultural characteristics was useful in gaining insight into the determinants of fertility and factors affecting its changes.

M o r e intensive analyses of demographic data on an international scale have been undertaken in the preparation of several United Nations monographs, including studies of foetal, infant, and early childhood mortality [10], the ageing of population, its causes and social-economic consequences [11], factors in the postwar upsurge of fertility which occurred in m a n y industrialized countries [12], and patterns of participation in economic activities on the part of m e n and w o m e n of different ages [13]. In such studies also, the breadth of geographical scope m a k e it possible to discern relationships which m a y not be apparent w h e n the data of one country or a limited group of countries are considered.

T h e Secretariat has also co-operated in some studies on aspects of the d e m o graphy of particular countries, carried out as joint projects with the Governments

1. Figures in square brackets refer to the bibliography at the end of this article.

344 T h e world of the social sciences

of the countries concerned. Projects of this kind have been a part of the Population Commission's effort to promote demographic research work within less developed countries. Their purpose has been simultaneously to obtain information desired by the co-operating Government and to demonstrate methods of study and the utility of results, for the benefit of other Governments which might be interested in undertaking similar studies. T h e first and most important project of this type undertaken to date was the Mysore Population Study [14]. This was an experiment, conducted jointly by the United Nations and the Government of India, in the use of household sample survey methods to obtain estimates of birth and death rates and other data for analysis of interrelations of fertility, mortality, and population dynamics with factors of economic and social change in an area undergoing development and modernization. Both the substantive and the methodological results were valuable. T h e experience gained in this project has been useful in numerous more recent applications of household sample survey techniques to the problem of estimating birth and death rates in India and other countries lacking satisfactory vital registration systems, including an experimental project in the State of G u a n a -bara, Brazil, in which the Latin American Centre for Demographic Training and Research co-operated on behalf of the United Nations with the Government of Brazil [3a]. Other demographic studies carried out jointly by the United Nations and co-operating Governments include a study in the Philippines on demographic questions pertinent to the national development plan [15] and one in the Sudan on the growth, structure, and geographical distribution of population and manpower with special reference to problems of social and economic development [16].

T h e work of the United Nations has also produced some important contributions to the methodology of demographic analysis. T h e necessity of making the best of incomplete and defective data in such projects as world-wide series of future population estimates and surveys of aspects of the world demographic situation has forced the Secretariat to methodological innovation. A m o n g its principal contributions in this respect have been a manual on methods of population projections by sex and age groups [20], the United Nations model life tables [17], various constructions of stable, semi-stable, and quasi-stable population models, and developments of their application in estimating basic demographic measures. These have proved invaluable as tools for the study of the demography of the developing countries and for the making of population projections. Following the pioneering works of the United Nations along these lines, demographers in various countries have recently been pursuing improvements, refinements, and elaborations of model life tables and stable, semi-stable, and quasi-stable population systems, which are n o w forming a major n e w chapter of demographic methodology.

PROMOTION AND ASSISTANCE OF DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL

Although research at the international level makes important contributions to demographic knowledge and is uniquely valuable in some respects, it cannot take the place of national research programmes in providing the specific information needed in each country as a basis for national policy decisions and planning of national action programmes, either as regards economic and social development in general or population policy in particular. But research in demography is little advanced as yet in most of the less developed countries, and its advancement is hindered by major impediments, notably by the shortage of specially trained personnel and other resources in Government agencies, universities and research institutions. Lack of knowledge of the demographic facts and of demographic-economic-social interrelations is itself a hindrance to the development of research in this field, in so far as lack of knowledge results in failure to appreciate the full importance of population questions and the utility of studying them. Keenly aware of these facts, the Population Commission and the regional economic commissions have sponsored several kinds of activities aimed at encouraging and assisting demographic research

Research and teaching centres and professional bodies 345

work in less developed countries, in addition to the Secretariat co-operation with Governments in studies of the kind already mentioned.

Most important in this connexion has been the work of the regional d e m o graphic training and research centres, three of which have been established under United Nations auspices or with United Nations co-operation u p to the present time: one for Latin America, established in 1957 in Santiago, Chile; one for Asia and the Far East, established in 1957 in B o m b a y , India; and one for North Africa (also serving neighbouring countries in the Middle East), established in Cairo, United Arab Republic, in 1963. These centres are financed partly by the host Governments and co-operating local institutions, partly by United Nations technical assistance funds, and partly by grants from foundations. Their primary function is to provide training in demography for students from countries within the respective regions w h o are nominated by their Governments for United Nations fellowship awards. Each centre offers a basic one-year training course and selected students m a y also receive a second and, in some cases, a third year of training. Since their establishment, the centres for Latin America and for Asia and the Far East have m a d e substantial contributions toward the formation of corps of trained workers, capable of and interested in pursuing demographic studies and statistical work in the countries of these regions.

In addition to their training courses, the three centres have programmes of research on demographic questions of regional interest. The Latin American centre and the one in Asia and the Far East have published important contributions to the demographic literature of their regions. T h e Latin American centre, in particular, has also developed a programme of co-operation with agencies and institutions in countries within the region, in national demographic studies, including field studies.

Provision of the services of demographic experts under the programmes of technical assistance, upon the request of Governments, is another form of United Nations aid to demographic research work in the less developed countries. Although demography is not one of the fields in which Governments have requested and received United Nations technical assistance on the largest scale (the demand for expert assistance in census-taking and other demographic statistical work has been m u c h greater), nevertheless this kind of assistance has been more than a negligible factor in the advancement of demographic research in a number of less developed countries during the last ten years. In order to facilitate the provision of relatively short-term consultative and advisory services for national demographic activities, posts of regional demographic advisers have recently been established as a part of the regional technical assistance programme for Asia and the Far East and similar arrangements are being m a d e for Africa and the Middle East. In Latin America, such advisory services have been rendered by the staff of the regional demographic centre and the regional economic commission.

Finally, United Nations conferences, seminars, and other technical meetings in the field of demography have also served to stimulate and give orientation to demographic research work in less developed countries. A World Population Conference was held under United Nations auspices in R o m e in 1954 [31] and a second World Conference is to be held in Belgrade in August-September 1965. A n Asian Population Conference was held in N e w Delhi in 1963 under the auspices of the Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East and several regional demographic seminars have been organized during the last ten years in Latin America, Asia and the Far East, Africa, and southern Europe, under the United Nations technical assistance programmes.

FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF UNITED NATIONS SPONSORED RESEARCH AND TRAINING PROGRAMMES RELATING TO POPULATION PROBLEMS

T h e research and training programmes sponsored by the Population Commission and regional commissions m a y be extended in the future beyond demography into

346 T h e world of the social sciences

other fields pertinent to population policies and their implementation. T h e Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East at its session in M a r c h 1964, considering the recommendations of the Asian Population Conference, requested the Executive Secretary, inter alia, to 'expand the scope of technical assistance available to governments in the region, upon their request, for data collection, research, experimentation and action in all aspects of population problems, including family welfare planning programmes, through regional advisory services, development and strengthening of regional, sub-regional and national training and research institutions, study tours, fellowships and meetings of technical groups'. Recommendations for widening the scope and increasing the intensity of the work of the United Nations and specialized agencies along these lines are also contained in the report of a committee of experts convened at United Nations Headquarters in September 1964 to advise on the preparation of a long-range p r o g r a m m e of United Nations work in the population field. This committee's report will be considered by the Population Commission at its session scheduled to be held in March-April 1965. Cultural, sociological, social-psychological and biological factors pertinent to the regulation of fertility and to programmes of action aimed at promoting the practice of family planning are a m o n g the topics of research and training which m a y occupy an important place in the future programmes of the Population Commission, the regional economic commissions, and specialized agencies of the United Nations, if these recommendations are adopted.

SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY OF UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATIONS IN D E M O G R A P H Y

STUDIES A N D TECHNICAL REPORTS OF THE POPULATION B R A N C H ,

BUREAU OF SOCIAL AFFAIRS

General

1. The determinants and consequences of population trends. English, French, Spanish. 404 p . , ST/sOA/Series A / 17. Sales no.: 53.XI11.3.

2. Population growth and the standard of living in under-developed countries. (A brief s u m m a r y of major relevant findings from The determinants and consequences of population trends.) English, French, Spanish. 9 p. , ST/soA/Series A /20 . Sales no.: 54.X111.7.

Future population estimates

3. Provisional report on world population prospects as assessed in 1963. English. 316 p. , ST/soA/Series R / 7 .

4. The population of Central America (including Mexico), ig^o-ig8o. English, Spanish. 84 p . , ST/soA/Series A / I 6 . Sales no.: 54.XIH.3.

5. The population of South America, igso-ig8o. English, Spanish. 139 p. , S T / S O A / Series A / 2 1 . Sales no: 55.X111.4.

6. The population of South-East Asia (including Ceylon and China: Taiwan), ig^o-ig8o. English, French. 166 p. , ST/soA/Series A / 3 0 . Sales no: 59.X111.2.

7. The population of Asia and the Far East, ig^o-igao. English, French, n o p. , ST/sOA/Series A / 3 1 . Sales no.: 59.XHI.3.

Surveys of aspects of the world demographic situation

8. T h e situation and recent trends of mortality in the world. Population bulletin of the United Nations, no . 6, 1962, p . 3-146. English, French, Spanish, S T / S O A / Series N / 6 . Sales no.: 62.X111.2.

Research and teaching centres and professional bodies 347

9. T h e situation and recent trends of fertility in the world. Population bulletin of the United Nations, N o . 7. (In press.)

Topical monographs

10. Fœtal, infant and early childhood mortality. Vol. I. The statistics. 137 p. Vol. II, Biological, social and economic factors, 44 p . English, French. ST/soA/Series A / 13 and A d d . i . Sales nos.: 1954.IV.7 and 1954.^.8.

11. The ageing of populations and its economic and social implications. English, French. 168 p . , ST/soA/Series A / 2 6 . Sales no.: 56.XIH.6.

12. Recent trends infertility in industrialized countries. English, French. 182 p . , S T / S O A / Series A / 2 7 . Sales no.: 57.XI11.2.

13. Demographic aspects of manpower. Sex and age patterns of participation in economic activities. English, French, Spanish. 81 p. , ST/SOA/Series A / 3 3 . Sales no.: 61.XI11.4.

Studies of aspects of the demography of particular countries carried out jointly with the Governments concerned

14. The Mysore population study. English. 443 p. , ST/soA/Series A / 3 4 . Sales no.: 61.XI11.3.

15. Population growth and manpower in the Philippines. English, French, Spanish. 66 p. , ST/soA/Series A / 3 2 . Sales no.: 61.X111.2.

16. Population growth and manpower in the Sudan. English (French and Spanish in press). 150 p . , ST/soA/Series A / 3 7 . Sales no.: 64.XIH.5.

Methodological publications

17. Age and sex patterns of mortality. Model life tables for under-developed countries. English, French, Spanish, 38 p . , ST/soA/Series A / 2 2 . Sales no.: 55.X111.9.

18. Methods of estimating total population for current dates. English, French, Spanish. 45 p. , ST/soA/Series A / I O . Sales no.:52.xin.5. (Russian offset edition available.)

19. Methods of appraisal of quality of basic data for population estimates. English, French, Spanish. 67 p. , ST/soA/Series A / 2 3 . Sales no.: 56.X111.2. (Russian offset edition available.)

20. Methods for population projections by sex and age. English, French, Spanish. 81 p . , ST/soA/Series A / 2 5 . Sales no.:56.xin.3. (Russian offset edition available.)

21. Factor analysis of sex-age-specific death rates: A contribution to the study of the dimensions of mortality. Population Bulletin of the United Nations, no. 6, 1962; p . 147-201. English, French, Spanish. ST/soA/Series N / 6 . Sales no.: 62.XI11.2.

22. National programmes of analysis of population census data as an aid to planning and policy-making. English, French, Spanish. (Russian offset edition available.) 64 p. , ST/SOA/Series A / 3 6 . Sales no.: 64.XIH.4.

23. General principles for national programmes of population projections (in press).

STUDIES SPONSORED BY REGIONAL ECONOMIC COMMISSIONS

Economic Commission for Africa

24. Recent demographic levels and trends in Africa. Economic Bulletin for Africa (E/CN.14/325, Part B ) .

Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East

25. Population trends and related problems of economic development in the E C A F E region. Economic bulletin for Asia and the Far East, vol. x, no. 1, June 1959, p . 1-45. English.

348 T h e world of the social sciences

26. Population growth and problems of employment in the E C A F E region. Economic bulletin for Asia and the Far East, vol. xii, no. 2, September 1961, p. 1-28. English.

Economic Commission for Latin America

27. Human Resources of Central America, Panama and Mexico, ig¡o-ig8o, in relation to some aspects of economic development. English, Spanish. 159 p. , S T / T A O / K / L A T / I , E/cN.12/548. Sales no.: 60.X111.1.

28. T h e demographic situation in Latin America. Economic Bulletin for Latin America, vol. vi, no. 2, October 1961. English, Spanish.

29. Geographical distribution of the population of Latin America and regional priorities for development. Economic Bulletin for Latin America, vol. vin, no. 1, M a r c h 1963. English, Spanish.

MISCELLANEOUS DEMOGRAPHIC PUBLICATIONS OF THE UNITED NATIONS

30. Multilingual demographic dictionary. English, French, Spanish (Russian in press). 77 p., $0.50. ST/soA/Series A / 2 9 . Sales no.: 58.XIH.4.

31. Proceedings of the World Population Conference (Rome, 1954). Summary Report. English, French, Spanish. 207 p. Papers (six volumes; papers in original language). Sales no.: 55.XI11.8.

32. Guanabara demographic pilot survey. (A joint project with the Government of Brazil carried out on behalf of the United Nations by the Latin American Centre for Demographic Training and Research.) English, French, Spanish. 77 p., ST/soA/Series A/35 . Sales no.: 64.X111.3.

The European Institute of Business Administration

Palais de Fontainebleau, Fontainebleau, France

T h e intensification of competition and the development of international economic co-operation, the growth of enterprises and technical progress call for clearly defined qualities in managerial personnel and, consequently, for a n e w approach to the training of such personnel. A knowledge of economics, mathematics, commerce, law and psychology and a degree of proficiency in the use of foreign languages have n o w become essential basic attainments. T h e training provided must be based on an open-minded approach to social, national and international affairs, as close a link as possible between formal instruction and die practical world of business, development of the team spirit, and the ability to adapt to work in different countries. It was to provide this type of training for young graduates of higher educational institutions that the European Institute of Business Administration was established.

Research and teaching centres and professional bodies 349

FEATURES OF THE PROGRAMME

Residential post-graduate training

T o facilitate the adaptation of young graduates and to prepare diem for their future careers, die programme is designed as an interdisciplinary transition between university and business, between the realm of tíieory, technical training or general education and day-to-day practice in the various branches of business administration and dealing with actual problems.

T h e average age of the students is about 26, and normally ranges between 22 and 28. O f the first five groups—totalling almost 400 graduates—to complete the course, 30 per cent had received their previous training in commerce, 25 per cent in technology or in an advanced school of engineering, 16 per cent in law, 10 per cent in economics; 3 per cent had not had university-level education and were admitted, after a m i n i m u m of five years' experience, because of their exceptional abilities.

A European education

T h e institute's European outlook is found in all aspects of its organization and all phases of its programme.

Courses. T h e courses in marketing and sales, production and industrial management, finance, quantity technology, h u m a n relations and organization, and management policy, deal with management problems as they arise in the various Atlantic countries: 22 per cent of the cases studied are located in France, 30 per cent in the other C o m m o n Market countries, 17 per cent in the remainder of Europe and 31 per cent in other parts of the world (mainly in the United States). A seventh course, on the European context with particular reference to economic and social institutions, is especially concerned with environment and its influence on business economic problems, comparative legal and fiscal conditions, role of the international organizations.

Faculty. T h e teaching staff are drawn from about ten different countries. They come regularly to give courses which are so grouped as to avoid excessive travel on their part. T h e Director-General of die institute is Olivier Giscard d'Estaing.

Students. T h e table which follows shows h o w the various nationalities were represented in the five groups which have completed die course (total students for all nationalities 379). There were no national quotas, the students being selected only on the grounds of ability. O n e rule safeguards die international character of the institute: no group doing the course m a y have more than a third of its members of die same nationality.

European Economic Other European countries Other countries Community and areas and areas

Belgium France Germany Italy Luxembourg Netherlands

T O T A L S

30 118

39 12 8 9

216

Austria Central Europe Denmark Greece Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom

!3 4 7 4 6 2

18

11 20

3i

116

Africa Asia Canada Egypt Latin America Morocco Mexico Middle East United States of America

5 8 1 1

4 1 1 6

20

47

350 T h e world of the social sciences

Working languages. Cases m a y be discussed in English, French and G e r m a n , so that participants have to understand all three. As most of the teaching staff are at least bilingual, a student called upon to speak is nearly always free to use one or other of two out of the three working languages. T h e language factor is taken into account w h e n candidates are selected, and systematic teaching of the three languages is given in the institute.

European councils and committees. T h e institute's administrative and managing bodies are all international, and include distinguished representatives from most European countries and the United States; this applies particularly to the committee for advanced training, the advisory council and the governing body.

Finances. There must obviously be close co-operation with enterprises in all the interested countries, and these enterprises must be associated with the teaching provided, since its purpose is to meet their needs. T h e m o n e y must also be found to pay for the actual teaching and for research. Various enterprises accordingly m a k e annual contributions to the budget of the institute.

T h e Paris C h a m b e r of C o m m e r c e and Industry took the initiative by contributing a substantial part of the inital costs and still assumes responsibility for a considerable part of the operational costs. T h e Ford Foundation m a d e a generous donation, spread over three years. The following firms undertook responsibility for certain teaching expenses: Péchiney, Saint-Gobain, McKinsey, Procter and Gamble , I B M . S o m e sixty other firms contribute annually, and m a n y French companies contribute in lieu of apprenticeship tax. Fellowships have been offered by the European Communities, the Franco-German Youth Office, the French Directorate for Cultural Relations, and various European organizations and enterprises.

ORGANIZATION OF STUDIES

T h e sixth (1964-65) course, with 120 participants, is divided into three sections of forty for case studies. During the study year, from 15 September to 15 June, there are seven countries representing a total of about 600 classes, 400 of which are repeated for each of the three sections. In addition to more than 300 case studies, there are talks, technical notes, exercises, written reports, factory visits, a model management project (business game) , research projects and library work.

Group work is systematically organized. Groups of seven or eight are selected by educational background, experience, age, nationality and knowledge of languages, and each day discuss the two case studies which will be considered the following day.

T h e day's programme is as follows: two case studies in the morning, two talks, each followed by a debate, in the afternoon and, after a certain period for individual work, group meetings in the evening.

Written tests (exercises or written case analyses) on Saturday mornings help to evaluate individual progress and the progress of the group as a whole. At the end of the year, examinations are held and a jury of professors decides which students —usually the vast majority—have qualified for the diploma awarded by the institute.

T h e care taken in selecting candidates ensures that the general standard will be high from the outset. National pre-selection committees hold interviews and inform the international selection committee, which considers a voluminous dossier on each candidate.

SOME RESULTS

Every year the Appointments Board receives requests from numerous undertakings wishing to recruit graduates of the institute. T h e institute follows up the career of each graduate. Over 80 per cent are employed in companies having international activities, and almost half work at least temporarily in a country other

Research and teaching centres and professional bodies 351

than their o w n . They work mainly in finance and commerce, in firms that vary greatly in size and activities. M a n y are employed in banking and in industry; some join engineering consultant offices; some set up on their o w n .

Former students have their o w n association which is active and very well organized throughout Europe; it regularly publishes a review dealing with management techniques and major European problems that concern enterprises.

BACKGROUND AND PROJECTS

T h e institute was established in 1958 on the initiative of the Paris Chamber of Commerce and Industry with the technical assistance of the Harvard Business School and the French Centre for Advanced Training in Business Administration. It is accommodated in the Palace of Fontainebleau. There were fifty participants in the first year's course of study. The institute is registered as a foreign association and as an independent establishment for advanced training, and has rapidly developed. For the first time, in September 1964, a one-week seminar brought ninety very senior business executives together to discuss the problems of long-term planning in multi-national enterprises. Representatives from all the Atlantic countries were thus able to consider a vital problem and become acquainted with the most up-to-date planning techniques. T h e seminar was organized in collaboration with the University of California and financed by the McKinsey Foundation.

N e w buildings are being planned and are to be built at a site acquired at Fontainebleau by the Paris Chamber of C o m m e r c e and Industry. They will accommodate 200 participants, which seems to be the optimum number in view of the number of applications for admission and the number of requests from firms desirous of recruiting graduates of the institute.

The teaching will then be provided in four sections. There is to be a short refresher course for graduates of the institute w h o come back after five or six years to bring themselves up to date with the most recent techniques and European developments, and so move on to a new stage in their o w n personal development.

T h e institute meets a need of our times. Its purpose is to serve the enterprise, to facilitate the careers of young businessmen in Europe and make them more efficient. T h e perfectly smooth international collaboration that has sprung up is a remarkable feature of the promising start made . The administration and teaching staff, the groups of participants, the association of former students are all engaged in a task of absorbing interest. Linguistic and psychological frontiers and nationalistic barriers are gradually disappearing, and it has been shown that c o m m o n techniques and methods are amenable to the laws of business management. It has also been shown that Europe is a reality that has taken deep root in men's minds, and that there is an élite in Europe irrespective of national origins.

Australia

The Social Science Research Council of Australia

Research School of Social Sciences,

Australian National University, Canberra, A . C . T .

T h e Social Science Research Council is the national organization of Australian social scientists. It was founded on 21 August 1952, and incorporated as an association on 3 June 1957. The objects of the Research Council are:

352 T h e world of the social sciences

i. T o encourage the advancement of the social sciences in Australia. 2. T o act as a co-ordinating group for the promotion of research and teaching in

the social sciences. 3. T o foster research and to subsidize the publication of studies in the social sciences. 4 . T o encourage and assist in the formation of other national associations or insti

tutions for the promotion of the social sciences or any branch of them. 5. T o act as the Australian national m e m b e r of international organizations con

cerned with the social sciences. 6. T o act as consultant and adviser in regard to the social sciences. T h e council has been an affiliated m e m b e r of the International Sociological Association since its inception, and has been regularly represented at the triennial congresses of the association.

T h e council's activities are supported by an annual grant of £ (A) 5,000 from the Commonweal th Government and, to assist in its launching, the Government grants were generously matched by annual grants from the Carnegie Corporation of N e w York for a non-recurrent five-year period. T h e dual flow of funds in those years enabled the council not only to experiment with varied annual programmes, but also to place some funds in a reserve which has been carefully husbanded for the financing of larger projects organized by the council itself.

Apart from major projects, the council's current activities include the award of grants (other than personal salary) to individual research workers; the award of supplementary travel grants for research in south-east Asia; subsidies to assist the publication of learned journals and books in the social science field; and publication from time to time of consolidated bibliographies of research in the social sciences in Australia.

According to the council's rules, 'persons w h o are deemed to have achieved distinction in one or more branches of the social sciences m a y be elected to membership of the council if (i) they are nominated by one m e m b e r and seconded by two other members and (ii) they are recommended by the membership committee after investigation of their eligibility and (iii) they receive the support of a majority of the members for the time being at a postal ballot'. Since 1955, the number of members has risen from forty-nine to sixty-three.

MAJOR RESEARCH PROJECTS

The role of women in Australia. M r . N o r m a n MacKenzie's book, reporting the council's first major project, received m u c h favourable notice in Australia and abroad. It has been used as a theme and text for study by w o m e n ' s organizations, television and radio panels, and adult education discussion groups and summer schools.

Income taxation in Australia. T h e report on this second major project was completed during 1963, and published in 1964 under the names of Professor R . I. Downing (chairman), Professor H . W . Arndt, M r . A . H . Boxer and Professor R . L . Mathews, by Melbourne University Press.

Aborigines in Australian society. In consultation with the Myer Foundation of Melbourne, which has promised substantial financial support, this topic was selected for council's third major research project, which is planned to take three years. It is supervised by a Project Committee consisting of Professors W . D . Borrie (chairm a n ) and R . M . Berndt, Dr . H . C . Coombs , and Professors A . P . Elkin, W . R . Geddes, C . A . Gibb, G . H . Lawton and Sir Fred Schonell.

M r . C . D . Rowley, M . A . , has been appointed full-time director of the project. Its main purpose is to elucidate problems arising from contacts between Aborigines and non-Aborigines and to formulate policy implications of the findings.

The metropolis in Australia. T h e council adopted this as a major research project next in priority to that on Aborigines, and authorized as a first step a conference on the state of research in the subject. In collaboration with Professors W . D . Borrie and R . S. Parker working as a seminar committee, Professor N . G . Butlin arranged

Research and teaching centres and professional bodies 353

a seminar of over thirty scholars from different disciplines, in January 1964. A proposal for establishing a permanent institute of urban research is being considered.

OTHER SPONSORED PROJECTS

Social science research in Australian universities. Professor O . A . Oeser has been appointed as convenor of a sub-committee of which Professors J. Andrews and Z . C o w e n , are members , to organize studies of the adequacy of facilities available for social science research in Australian universities, including finance, trained personnel, provision for post-graduate work and opportunities for publication, and of the adequacy of the present coverage of the various fields of social science research.

During 1963, the council assisted the Ministry of Education of the Government of India, through the Australian National Advisory Committee for Unesco, in conducting a survey of resources in Australian universities for social science research in and concerning Asia.

Research and travel grants, and subsidies. In 1963, the council approved two research grants and seven south-east Asian research travel grants, totalling £(A) 2,280. Further, it assisted the following learned journals with grants totalling £(A) 1,350 in 1963/64: Australian journal of social issues, Australian journal of statistics, Australian outlook, Business archives and history, Journal of industrial relations, Institute of Australian Geographers' journal.

BIBLIOGRAPHY OF RESEARCH IN T H E SOCIAL SCIENCES

W o r k is in progress on compiling a third issue of the council's bibliography of social science research, to cover the period 1960-63. T h e previous issues covered the periods 1954-57 and 1957-60 respectively.

Copies of these bibliographies are available from the office of the council for the following charges (post free): 1954-57: 5S.6d. (stg.) or $1 per copy; 1957-60: i2S.6d. (stg.) or $2 per copy.

PUBLICATIONS SPONSORED OR ASSISTED BY THE COUNCIL

Report on major research project

M A C K E N Z I E , N o r m a n . Women in Australia, F . W . Cheshire Pty, Ltd., Melbourne 1962.

Publications arising from research grants

E N C E L , S. Recruitment and careers of higher government officials, Public administration (Sydney), vol. 18, no. 1, 1959.

T h e political élite in Australia, Political studies, vol. 9, no. 1, 1961. Political leadership in Australia, Australian journal of social issues, vol. 1, no. 2, 1962. I N G L I S , K . S. T h e Australian Catholic C o m m u n i t y , C h . 1 in H . M a y e r , ed., Cath

olics and the free society, Melbourne 1961. J O Y C E , R . B . Librarians can win historians, and still influence other people, Archives

and manuscripts, vol. 2, no. 3. Sir William MacGregor—a colonial Governor, Historical studies, Australia and

New Zealand, vol. 11, no. 41, N o v e m b e r 1963, p . 18-31. N E A L E , R . G . India, in: Australia in world affairs, 1950-55, C h . VIII, Melbourne

1957-Indian Council of World Affairs, Foreign affairs reports, N e w Delhi, vol. vu , no. 6. Australian Institute of International Affairs, Australia's neighbours, 3rd Series,

no. 84. N E U T Z E , G . M . Decentralisation dialogue, Current affairs bulletin, vol. 31, no. 8 ,

4 M a r c h 1963, p. 115-27.

354 T h e world of the social sciences

O ' C O N N E L L , D . P . T h e law of the marginal sea, British year book of international law,

1958. S M I T H , R . H . T . Railway commodity movements between N e w South Wales and

Victoria, The Australian geographer, vol. 9, 1963, p . 88-96. S O P E R , C . J.; R Y D O N , Joan. T h e results, in: State Ballot—The N.S. W. General Election

of March 196s, by Ian C A M P B E L L ; Sydney, 1963, p . 46-51. ' T h e electorate' being Chapter V of W I L K E S , John, ed.: Forces in Australian politics,

Sydney 1963, p . 167-89. T h e South Australian 'Gerrymander' , Australian journal of politics and history, vol. ix,

no. 1, M a y 1963, p . 86-7.

Publications subsidized by the council

S U T C L I F F E , G . P . Task variability and the level of aspiration, Melbourne University Press, October 1955.

C O P L A N D , Sir Douglas; B A R B A C K , R . H . Conflict of expansion and stability, F . W . Cheshire, Melbourne, M a y 1957.

C A M E R O N , B . Australian transactions table, The economic record, Melbourne, D e c e m ber 1957.

W I L D A V S K Y , A . ; C A R B O C H , Miss D . Studies in Australian politics: ' T h e 1926 referendum' and ' T h e fall of the Bruce Page Government ' , F . W . Cheshire, Melbourne, August 1958.

Australian journal of politics and history (special issue) : Report of Political Studies Association Conference. University of Queensland Press, August 1958.

T A P P , E . J. Early New Zealand, ¡y88-1841, Melbourne University Press, N o v e m ber 1958.

B A R R Y , Justice J. V . Alexander Maconochie of Norfolk Island, Melbourne University Press, November 1958.

T h e executive officers of the Social Science Research Council of Australia for the year 1964-65 are as follows: Chairman: Professor W . M . O'Neil, University of Sydney. Honorary secretary: Professor C . A . Gibb, Australian National University. Honorary treasurer: Professor A . Hunter, University of N e w South Wales.

United Kingdom

Institute of Social and Economic Research University of York

T h e King's M a n o r , York

T h e institute was established in 1963, at the n e w University of York, with the help of a five-year grant from the Rowntree Memorial Trust to cover general expenses. T h e Trust have also undertaken to finance two initial research projects, one of which (an analytic and comparative study of unemployment insurance schemes) is already under way. T h e second study is expected to be in the field of sociology.

T h e institute exists to facilitate research in the social sciences initiated by m e m bers of the university. There is, however, a deliberate attempt at some degree of specialization on problems concerned with the activities of the public sector. This

Research and teaching centres and professional bodies 355

shows itself in the studies which are already under w a y or about to begin. These include a study of the evolution of public expenditures in a number of countries, a study of the character and problems of the structure of governmental budgets in West European countries, a comparative study of urban redevelopment problems in three Yorkshire towns, and studies of the economic problems of unemployment insurance and of social (income) assistance. Other studies just beginning concern the social costs of hospital programming methods, a survey (jointly with the Unit for Economic and Statistical Studies on Higher Education at the London School of Economics) of the financing of British education, a study of drinking patterns in Britain, and a study of the role of scientists and technologists in industry.

T h e institute is directed by Professor Jack W i s m a n , and Professor Alan T . Peacock is chairman of the advisory committee. There are at present nine members of the research staff. The institute personnel are encouraged to participate in the teaching activities of the university, and university staff in the social sciences are integrated with the work of the institute through the research programmes described ealier and by joint membership of a research workshop at which the technical problems met with in particular research activities are discussed.

T h e activities of the institute and of the teaching departments are at present also integrated by the housing of some seventeen graduate students in the social sciences in the institute premises.

The institute also provides facilities for visiting scholars with interests in the same general field of research.

T w o reprint series are issued: one in economics which consists of the publications of the Department of Economics (concerned primarily with public sector problems), the other entitled 'Studies in the long-term development of fiscal systems', and comprising materials arising out of the research programme in public expenditures.

United States of America

The Ford Foundation

477 Madison Avenue, N e w York, N . Y .

POPULATION P R O G R A M M E

Since 1954, w h e n the Ford Foundation m a d e its first important grant in the field of population studies, the family of m a n has increased by 600 million people, the equivalent of the combined populations of the United States, all of South America, and the Soviet Union. Particularly in the poorer two-thirds of the world, where the greatest increases have occurred, the rising tide of population threatens to frustrate hopes for a better life.

But significantly, widespread concern—if not alarm—also developed during the decade.

N o w , a century after scientists began creating vaccines, public-health techniques, and other great means of reducing the death rate, the first deliberate, large-scale efforts to deal with the sombre arithmetic of population growth are beginning.

The geometric climb of the world population curve was evident long before the Second World W a r . It had taken 1,650 years for the population to double since the time of Christ, but only 200 years to double again. With the advent of modern

356 T h e world of the social sciences

medicine the pace quickened even more sharply: the world's third billion (thousand million) people was added in thirty-seven years, and a fourth billion will appear in about fifteen more.

Although some individual scientists and private groups had long pointed to the demographic handwriting on the wall, widespread concern was not crystallized until the unprecedented spread of expectations for a better quality of life. Nations everywhere began to grasp what was taken for granted in the industrialized countries: that the mass of people might live in some comfort and decency, with real hopes of betterment for themselves and their children.

RISING EXPECTATIONS A N D POPULATION

T h e hard facts of economic development and the compound interest of h u m a n fertility combine to frustrate these aspirations. Food production and industrialization in some of the newly developing countries have increased significantly, but gains in per capita income have been minimal. M o r e people are surviving, but often under such wretched conditions that existence has little meaning.

A n increase in the food supply alone is not the answer, for the issue is not simply to prevent starvation. It is, rather, to assure those w h o are born of their full heritage as h u m a n beings. Dramatic incidents like the food crisis in India in 1964 arouse sympathy and h u m a n concern. But even if h u m a n starvation is averted, unchecked population growth starves the economy. For, like a growing organism, a country trying to lift itself by its bootstraps must have a double portion—one to exist on and one to grow on. T o achieve higher levels of living a nation must develop its capital resources. It must invest in productive machinery, agricultural technology, and technical and professional education. But increased expenditures of income to provide mere subsistence for greater numbers of people leaves little to invest in the tools of economic progress.

Economic progress is particularly eroded by the high proportion of children in rapidly populating countries. Their population escalation results largely from decreases in infant mortality due to public-health measures imported from the West. Thus , children under fifteen—who are dependent consumers for m a n y years before they are producers—represent between 35 and 50 per cent of the population in industrialized countries. Poorer countries must, therefore, spend proportionately more of their income feeding, clothing, and housing children than countries with more gradual increases in population. T h e fact that youngsters eventually enter the labour force is no comfort in countries which cannot afford to train enough of them for productive employment; the result, instead, is more unemployment and underemployment.

MOTIVATION A N D MEANS

Concern for family planning is, of course, not limited to less-developed countries. In wealthier countries, families commonly limit the number of offspring to maximize the benefits that each child can receive . . . or simply to keep up with the Jones's standard of living. Even in the United States, where birth-control advice and methods have long been available on a private basis, w e are gradually moving toward a measure of public responsibility for making the choice more widely k n o w n and available. In m a n y areas of the country, tax-supported hospitals, clinics, and welfare agencies m a y n o w provide contraceptive advice and services, and Congress has approved a modest appropriation for birth-control services in the District of Columbia. Moreover, population is also a factor in concern about problems of air pollution, educational facilities, urban deterioration, and the quality of modern life in general.

Fertility control is as old as the h u m a n race. Since there is no decision so personal and private as procreation, fertility limitation—by whatever means—depends

Research and teaching centres and professional bodies 357

on families wanting to limit their size as well as knowing h o w to. Unfortunately, the modern world cannot wait for the conditions that naturally and in due course induced Europeans in the late nineteenth century to limit their population growth. T h e task, therefore, calls for the rapid introduction of a basic social change a m o n g millions of people.

Massive social change is difficult in any society, and it is especially difficult a m o n g people w h o are undernourished educationally as well as physically. M a n y of these people k n o w little of the facts of h u m a n reproduction or h o w to control it, and those w h o would try to help them have m u c h to learn about effectively communicating the necessity and means of fertility limitation.

THE K N O W L E D G E GAP

Despite the exponential growth of medical discovery, relatively little is k n o w n about the underlying chemistry and physiology of h u m a n reproductive processes. Until n o w , the field has not enjoyed high status in medical and biological research, and as a result, there is a shortage of skilled scientific personnel.

Skilled personnel must also be mobilized to improve the baseline statistics needed in planning and measuring the effectiveness of population control programmes. In m a n y countries a 10 per cent drop in the rate of population growth would go unnoticed because millions of births and deaths are not recorded.

A n d in the developing countries there is a particularly critical need for ably staffed agencies (like the extension system that advanced American agriculture, or the public-health campaigns that eradicated m a n y diseases) that can effectively tell masses of people that birth-control methods exist and encourage their use.

POPULATION POLICIES

Given all these needs, only massive sustained action can apply the brakes to onrush-ing population growth. But nation-wide family-planning efforts are still in their infancy. Successful pilot projects in India, Ceylon, and Taiwan have involved only a few thousand people.

As in other facets of development—agricultural research and extension, for example—the developing countries are turning to the United States and other aid-giving nations for technical assistance and funds in establishing the research, training, and educational programmes necessary for large-scale family planning. Since economists have maintained that a dollar invested in fertility control is m a n y times more effective in increasing per capita income than a dollar invested in plant and equipment, fertility control must emerge as an integral component in the development process.

In a policy breakthrough in 1962, the United States Government offered to provide family-planning information to countries requesting it. Federal support of birth-control research is still limited, however.

Altough the United Nations in 1947 established a Population Division that has performed an invaluable service in gathering data and in training demographers, efforts to engage the organization in assisting birth-control programmes have been inconclusive.

S o m e developing countries are moving more rapidly. India, Pakistan, Korea, and Tunisia are engaged in nation-wide family-planning programmes. Experiments and studies are under way in Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, and elsewhere.

Since 1922, w h e n the newspaper publisher E . W . Scripps established a foundation for research in population problems, private groups have led in stimulating population research and understanding. T h e Milbank Memorial Fund and a n u m ber of Rockefeller philanthropies (particularly the Population Council) were assisting a nucleus of population research long before the problem was impressed on the world consciousness.

358 T h e world of the social sciences

Since time is of the essence and government response is still inadequate to the population challenge, private efforts will continue to play a major role.

FORD FOUNDATION EFFORTS

T h e foundation's Population Programme is a microcosm of the national and international effort required to break the cycle of runaway population. O u r objectives are to assist research in reproductive biology that might lead to improved birth-control methods suitable for worldwide use; to help develop the m a n p o w e r and institutions necessary to educate families toward fertility regulation and provide them with the means; and to help improve the analysis and collection of vital statistics and other population data.

T h e foundation has committed a total of $34.5 million to population research laboratories and training centres in the United States, Britain, Europe, Israel, Australia, Asia, and Latin America and to government agencies for family-planning programmes in India, Pakistan, and Tunisia.

T h e funds are used in part to provide leading scientists already working on matters relevant to population with additional staff, equipment, and facilities. S o m e scientists are seeking a method of inoculation against pregnancy; since even isolated villagers have become accustomed to receiving injections against disease, they might accept injections far more readily than m a n y other contraceptive methods. O n e of the most promising mass contraceptives is a plastic device inserted in the uterus. It costs little, can often been worn for years at a time, and can be fitted in about five minutes.

Efforts to attract more specialists to the field are being assisted. For example, the foundation has given grants to encourage talented medical students and postdoctoral science majors to elect careers in reproduction work.

T o develop the variety of skilled manpower needed to carry out major population efforts in the future, the foundation has finaned training efforts ranging from degree programmes for demographers, public-health specialists, and scientists to courses in family-planning information and practice for midwives and auxiliary medical personnel.

T h e foundation has also sought to strengthen institutions that produce n e w knowledge and provide the training grounds for future personnel. In reproductive biology, these include the Population Council's Bio-Medical Division, the University of Wisconsin's zoology department, and the Worcester Foundation for Experimental Biology as well as such leading foreign centres as the University of Birmingham, the Zoological Society of London, the Karolinska Institute, and the W e i z m a n n Institute. In demography and family-planning administration, the foundation has assisted some American departments of social sciences and this year began efforts to expand training relevant to population in university schools of public health.

THE INDIAN P R O G R A M M E

T h e largest foundation-assisted programme in population abroad is India's. At its present rate of growth the Indian population of 460 million (second largest in the world) will double in less than 35 years.

T h e late Prime Minister Nehru acknowledged that India's ten-year-old family-planning programme had not been very succesful. T h e Government is attempting to strengthen it by improving and expanding community-level educational techniques, increasing the supply of contraceptive materials, and strengthening training and research in communications, demography, and reproductive biology. India's third Five-Year Plan (1961-66) provides five times more ($56 million) for family planning than the second plan.

T h e foundation has m a d e grants to twelve research laboratories and to several

Research and teaching centres and professional bodies 359

training centres. Funds, research equipment, and consultants have been provided in fields ranging from statistical analysis to contraceptive manufacture and motivational factors in India's m a n y population groups. Essential government agencies for research co-ordination, evaluation, and personnel development have been established with foundation help. Finally, the foundation is helping the Government to conduct intensive pilot efforts to apply the results of the latest research and to test and evaluate n e w techniques.

It has been less than 200 years since m a n tamed nature sufficiently to break the stalemate that had imposed on him an average life span of between 25 and 35 years. It is n o w necessary to apply the same degree of deliberate h u m a n effort to ensuring that this victory does not rob mankind of the good life.

The Population Council

230 Park A v e n u e , N e w Y o r k 17

T h e Population Council is a private foundation concerned with research, training, and technical assistance in population matters throughout the world. T h e council seeks to help people of all nations to study and solve their population problems by modern scientific means. Altogether, support of some kind has been given to fifty-nine countries on all continents.

The council was founded in 1952, when John D . Rockefeller III called together a group of scholars who shared his growing concern for population problems. T h e Rockefeller family had long taken an interest in medicine and public health. Aware that life was being prolonged by rapid spread of these facilities in virtually all parts of the world, M r . Rockefeller faced the companion problems of the quality of life and the economic threats of rapid population growth. With his leadership and financial support, the m e n w h o met in 1952 established a foundation 'to stimulate, encourage, promote, conduct, and support significant activities in the broad field of population'. Frederick Osborn, long active in the American Eugenics Society, became its first administrative head. H e was succeeded as President of the Council in 1959 by Frank W . Notestein, former head of the Office of Population Research at Princeton University. In 1962, Bernard Berelson became Vice-President.

The foundation initially set up two divisions, one for demography and the other for medical-biological work. T h e Demographic Division undertook to provide fellowships for advanced training in demography, institutional support for training and research, grants for specific research projects, support for conferences and professional meetings, and extensive consultation on population matters with individuals, academic institutions, and governments. Its programme has been carried through by Dudley Kirk, as director, and W . Parker Mauldin as associate director.

The council's demographic fellowships have facilitated advanced graduate training in population studies, chiefly in leading departments of economics and sociology in the United States, but occasionally in other countries. In 1964, twenty-four fellowships were awarded to candidates from eleven countries, a majority of them Asian. A special programme of teaching and research in demography at the University of G h a n a drew an increased number of students from tropical Africa. In the main, the demographic fellowship programme has emphasized the training of qualified scholars from the less-developed parts of the world.

In addition, the council has attempted to recruit new scholars to the field of demography through funds m a d e available to first-year graduate students in five American universities: Brown, California, Pennsylvania, Princeton, and Wisconsin.

360 T h e world of the social sciences

In demographic institutional support, the Population Council has given major assistance to three United Nations Regional Centres of Training and Research, in Santiago (Chile), B o m b a y , and Cairo. Grants to universities and research institutions, both domestic and foreign, have been numerous. A small but valuable programme has been the supplying of a selected basic library on population to overseas institutions that otherwise would have difficulty in obtaining these books.

Typical examples of work supported by the Demographic Division include the following: i. Financial assistance to the United Nations World Population Conference to be

held in Belgrade in 1965. a. T h e first field surveys in tropical Africa on the vital statistics of migration and

family life. 3. A research study of the differential fertility a m o n g w o m e n of different back

grounds in Israel. 4. A grant to the Institute of Development Economics in Karachi to continue and

expand the work of its demographic section, 5. Making available to interested institutions a one-in-a-thousand sample of

the i960 United States Census returns. 6. A fellowship for a scholar from Senegal, attached to the United Nations Popula

tion Branch, for study in demography at the Institut National d'Études Démographiques in Paris.

T h e Bio-Medical Division of the council operates its o w n laboratory for research on reproduction at the Rockefeller Institute in N e w York, under the direction of Sheldon J. Segal. Here the research programme includes studies of compounds that prevent the progress of pregnancy, of the mechanism of action of intra-uterine devices, of the use of immunologic procedures and of sperm-inhibiting compounds, and of the mechanism of hormone action.

This division has a fellowship programme and a grant programme paralleling those in demography. Most bio-medical fellows are assigned to laboratories in the United States (including the council's o w n ) , but training has also been provided in Great Britain, Israel, and Switzerland. At the present time, nearly forty Population Council bio-medical fellows are appointed each year, mainly from the developing nations. In addition, ten clinical fellowships are awarded each year to medical workers actively engaged in some aspect of a national family planning programme. Chiefly, such fellowships are awarded for training in contraception methodology and the operation of family planning clinics.

T h e bio-medical grant programme supports research in the broad aspect of reproduction physiology, with priority given to research on the control of fertility. Although an objective of the grant programme is to assist in the development of n e w methods of fertility control, it is recognized that the shortest path to this goal m a y be through the support of basic research on the fundamental, unanswered questions concerning the process of reproduction. A sizable proportion of grant funds have heretofore been devoted to basic research projects. As more governmental grant funds become available for this basic research, the council's grant programme will concentrate on areas in which it can m a k e a unique contribution, such as applied birth control research and the testing in clinical trials of potential methods developed in the laboratory.

In the past two years the Population Council has received world-wide attention for its study and evaluation of intra-uterine contraceptive devices. It has sponsored two international conferences on the subject, in 1962 and 1964, and has m a d e grants for controlled trial of the devices in dozens of hospitals and medical schools, A m e r ican and foreign. In the words of Dr . Notestein, 'Here at long last w e have available a cheap and simply applied method, easily reversible, that meets the needs of a great majority of w o m e n . . . . There has been no other development in recent years that goes nearly so far in supplying a basis for optimism concerning man's ability to deal with the problems of the high rate of population growth.'

Research and teaching centres and professional bodies 361

S o m e examples of bio-medical activities supported by the council are: 1. T h e 1964 International Conference on Intra-uterine Contraception, attended by

over 400 people from 40 countries. 2. A fellowship for a professor from India to study the endocrine relationships in

mammal ian embryos at Cambridge University. 3. A grant to the Australian National University for endocrine studies on marsupial

reproduction. 4. A grant to the Joint Commission on Rural Reconstruction, Taiwan, for a medical

follow-up study on intra-uterine device cases in Taichung. 5. Attempts in the council's laboratory to uncover the mechanism of action of

compounds that prevent the normal progress of pregnancy after fertilization has occurred.

As knowledge of population problems and personnel to deal with them both increased, various countries began asking the council for advice and assistance in surveys and programmes of population control. Technical and financial aid has been given for studies on the expansion of family planning in twelve areas: H o n g K o n g , India, Indonesia, Jamaica, Japan, South Korea, Pakistan, Puerto Rico, Taiwan, Tunisia, Turkey, and the United States. In these and seven more countries the council has helped investigate knowledge and attitudes about the subject. A quarterly bulletin published by the council, Studies in family planning, carries reports in this field to leaders all over the world.

Whenever a request for aid arrived from a foreign government, the council attempted to respond in the most appropriate way. Survey missions were sent out, studies and pilot projects were begun, and technical assistance was given. Personnel for short-term foreign assignment was drawn from universities and public health staffs. In the regulation of population, an area where governments and international organizations have been reluctant to take part, this small private American agency soon became a leading world source of technical aid.

In order to respond adequately to the increasing number of requests, the council established a n e w Technical Assistance Division in 1964, under the direction of Richmond K . Anderson, formerly of the Rockefeller Foundation. Recruitment of a permanent career staff available for foreign duty was begun. Such officers, assigned to advisory posts with governments that have family planning programmes, are expected to accumulate experience that will benefit each of the council's future projects.

T h e Population Council's work has been financed by m a n y contributors, including the chairman and other members of the Rockefeller family, the Ford Foundation, the Rockefeller Foundation, the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, and other foundations and individuals. In its first eleven years of operation the council has given $5.9 million in demographic grants, $5.4 million in bio-medical grants, and $1.7 million in fellowships.

Members of the Board of Trustees are: John D . Rockefeller III (chairman), Eugene R . Black, Frank G . Boudreau, Detlev W . Bronk, Ellsworth Bunker, James B . Conant, Caryl P . Haskins, Donald H . M c L e a n , Jr., Frank W . Notestein, Frederick Osborn, T h o m a s Parran, James B . Reston, John J. Scanlon, Theodore W . Schultz, and Lewis L . Strauss.

Meetings

Unification of law for international trade

N e w York Colloquium, September 1964

J o h n H o n n o l d

Nations have a c o m m o n interest in international trade that transcends the differences in their legal or economic systems; this community of interest has led to significant progress towards the unification of legal rules governing the international sale of goods.

This work does not stir the sensitive issues posed by tariffs or embargoes; it has some of the technical, neutral quality of international collaboration for the sharing of meteorological data or isotopes. The goal for this legal work is the development of bases for c o m m o n understanding of the obligations undertaken by transactions in international trade. T h e principal tools are standard contract provisions clearly articulating the expectations of the parties (whether they be private concerns or state trading organizations) and uniform laws which nations m a y m a k e applicable to transactions in international trade. These legal arrangements cannot be expected to have a dramatic effect on the current volume of trade; but the non-political character of the problems has m a d e it possible for scholars from differing legal and economic systems to engage in sustained, constructive work towards goals of long-range significance.

This development has been aided by a series of colloquia held under Unesco auspices by the International Association of Legal Science—at R o m e (1958), Helsinki (i960), London (196a) and most recently, in September 1964, at the L a w Center of N e w York University.1 T h e 196a London Colloquium explored 'The new sources of the law of international trade'.2 This general investigation m a d e it possible to devote the 1964 Colloquium to an intensive examination of specific problems embraced within the topic: ' A comparison of national and regional unifications of the law of sales and avenues towards their harmonization'.

T h e success of such international colloquia depends on the efficient system of organization that has emerged from repeated experience. A year prior to the Collo-

1. The costs of the Colloquium were borne with the aid of subventions by Unesco and by the Ford Foundation. Dean de Capriles, President of the American Association for the Comparative Study of L a w , and Professor Joseph M . Sweeney were in charge of the arrangements made by the L a w School of N e w York University as host to the proceedings.

2. For reports on the 1962 Colloquium, see: International Social Science Journal, Vol. X V (1963), N o . 2, p. 259; Revue internationale de droit comparé (1962), p. 775; American Journal of Comparative Law (1962), p. 689. The proceedings of the 1962 Colloquium have been published: Schmitthoff, Sources of the Law of International Trade, London, 1964. Proceedings of the R o m e and Helsinki Colloquia: Aspects juridiques du commerce avec les pays d'économie planifiée, Paris, 1961 ; Some Problems of Non-Performance and Force Majeure in International Contracts of Sale, Helsinki, 1961.

Int. So:. Sei. J., Vol. XVII, No. 2, 1965

Meetings 363

q u i u m a plan of study was developed by the Director of Research of I A L S (Professor Honnold of Philadelphia, the present writer). T h e general topic was broken into specific problems which were assigned to experts from representative parts of the world; as in preceding colloquia, approximately half of the reports were m a d e by experts from the socialist countries of eastern Europe; Latin America and Asia were also represented. T h e reporters prepared thorough studies totalling several hundred pages; prior to the Colloquium, copies of these reports and a general report on the topic as a whole were distributed to the reporters and to a limited group of observers w h o were invited to take part in the proceedings. Arrangements were under the general care of Professor Zajtay of Paris (then Secretary-General of I A L S , n o w succeeded by Professor Lawson of Oxford). Documents needed by the reporters were assembled and distributed by Dr . Schmitthoff of London.

T h e reports fell into two groups. Within the first group, a series of studies compared the handling of a specific problem of the sale of goods under four important systems of unification: (a) the General Conditions of Delivery of Goods (1958), prescribing standard contract terms for international trade a m o n g those nations of socialist economy in eastern Europe that are m e m b e r s of the Council for Mutual Economic Aid;1 (b) the General Conditions of Sale (standard contracts) for certain commodities prepared under the auspices of the Economic Commission for Europe of the United Nations;2 (c) two related uniform laws reduced to final form at a diplomatic conference held at T h e H a g u e in April 1964: the Uniform L a w on the Formation of Contracts for the International Sale of Goods and the Uniform L a w on the International Sale of Goods;3 (d) the Uniform Commercial Code , a thorough revision of commercial law designed to modernize and to unify the laws of the states of the United States.4

Since it would have been hopeless to attempt to compare these great systems of unification en masse, the reporters were asked to direct their attention to the comparative handling of specific problems outlined in the programme of study. In this spirit, two reports analysed and compared these unification systems with respect to their handling of certain troublesome problems in the formation of contracts, such as the attempted revocation of offers; these reports were presented by Professor Goldstajn of Yugoslavia and by Judge Lagergren of Sweden. T h e effect of defective performance in international sales contracts, with special attention to remedies related to rejection of the goods, w a s examined by Professors K n a p p and Kalensky of Czechoslovakia and by D e a n Talion of France. Risk of loss in transit was the subject of reports by Professor Ionasco of R u m a n i a and D r . Schmitthoff of England. T i m e limits for claims and actions under these four systems of unification were compared and analysed by Professor Harris of Canada and by Professor T r a m m e r of Poland.

T h e second group of reports dealt with avenues leading towards more widespread harmonization of legal rules related to international trade. T h e development of

1. Berman, 'Unification of contract clauses in trade between member-countries of the Council for Mutual Economic Aid', International and Comparative Law Quarterly, Vol. 7 (1958), p. 659; Loeber, 'Vereinheitlichung des Warenlieferungsrechts im Aussenhandel der Comecon-Länder', OstEuropa-Recht, Vol. 6 (i960), p. 35 (both publications set forth the text of the general conditions) J

2. Benjamin, 'The E . C . E . General Conditions of Sale and Standard Forms of Contract', Journal of Business Law, 1961, p. 113.

3. Tunc, 'Les conventions de La Haye du ier juillet 1964 portant loi uniforme sur la vente internationale d'objets mobiliers corporels', Revue internationale de droit comparé, 1964, p. 547 ; Farnsworth, 'Formation of international sales contracts: three attempts at unification', University of Pennsylvania Law Review, Vol. n o (1962), p. 305 ; Honnold, ' A uniform law for international sales', University of Pennsylvania Law Review, Vol. 107 (1959), p. 299.

4. The Uniform Commercial Code is implemented by adoption by the states. Within its first decade, the code has been adopted by the legislatures of twenty-nine jurisdictions embracing a large majority of the population of the United States. See Meritchikoff, 'Highlights of the Uniform Commercial Code', Modern Law Review, Vol. 27 (1964), p. 167.

364 T h e world of the social sciences

standard contracts for added categories of commodities and wider areas of trade was the subject of reports by Professor Graf of Mexico and Professor Michida of Japan. Finally, reports on measures for unifying the rules on choice of law were presented by Professor Eörsi of Hungary and by Professor von Caemmerer of the Federal Republic of G e r m a n y .

In addition to the general study of the topic, prepared by the General Reporter, Professor Krylov of the U . S . S . R . brought to the Colloquium a general analysis of the topic prepared by Professors Tschikvadse and Rubanov, also of the U . S . S . R . At the close of the Colloquium, the general reporter and Professor K n a p p of Czechoslovakia, as associate general reporter, s u m m e d u p the results of the deliberations. T h e proceedings of the Colloquium, including the studies by the reporters and a s u m m a r y of the deliberations, will be published.

T h e plan called for using the findings of these reports in various ways. At the first level was that of analysis and comparison. O n significant points it was found that standard contracts and uniform laws, although developed independently for different regions, have arrived at similar solutions to the same problem. These findings provided the basis for considering whether these solutions would be useful for trade a m o n g the various regions. W h e r e divergencies appeared, the Colloquium was able to consider whether the differences embodied significant differences in policy or merely reflected different modes of expression resulting from differences in legal tradition. In the latter case, the Colloquium explored techniques to cut through divergent forms of expression to the c o m m o n core of commercial understanding.

W h e r e the standard contracts differed from the uniform laws, important questions needed attention. Did these differences suggest that the uniform laws had failed to take account of commercial practice? O r did the difference disclose that legislation calls for flexibility, whereas greater precision and detail m a y be employed in standard contracts? W h e r e contract provisions disclosed the varying needs of different lines of trade, it was suggested that determining the degree of variation would be useful in the preparation of uniform legislation: since a uniform law must accommodate the varying needs of trade, the extent of that variation should help to define the leeway, or margin of flexibility, which a uniform law must allow.

Four days of discussion under the chairmanship of Professor Rozmaryn of Poland were directed to the more difficult problems exposed by the reports. T h e group gave close attention to important aspects of the above-mentioned uniform laws for international sales drafted at the 1964 diplomatic conference held at T h e Hague, and most especially the difficult question of the extent to which the drafts should e m b o d y international commercial practices and definitions of trade terms in current use. Relevant to this specific problem, and also to larger issues concerning the most effective approach to law-making, was Professor Michida's intensive study of contract practices and his analysis of the patterns that emerged from contracts governing international transactions in different commodities. This study led to the general question whether uniform laws for international trade should be based primarily on existing national laws, or on the 'living law of commerce' found by examining current commercial understandings and practices.

T h e Colloquium found that none of the pending unification projects dealt adequately with the difficulties resulting from divergent rules on time limits for presenting claims and instituting legal proceedings arising out of international sales transactions. T o meet this important problem, Professor T r a m m e r of Poland prepared a draft treaty prescribing uniform rules. T h e participants agreed on the importance of the proposal and secured the co-operation of the International Institute for the Unification of Private L a w (Rome) to carry the project forward, with the suggestion that the Institute seek die collaboration of an appropriate agency of the United Nations.

O n e of the most significant issues presented to the Colloquium was whether work on the unification of law for international trade should be confined to regional efforts, or whether bolder steps should be taken towards unification projects con-

Meetings 365

ceived on a world-wide scale. This issue related to both uniform laws and standard contracts.

T h e above-mentioned uniform laws for the international sale of goods had been prepared in western Europe; but the possibility of their use on a wider scale was suggested by the fact that States from eastern Europe, the Middle East, the Americas and Asia took part in the 1964 diplomatic conference on these proposed laws. Professor Graf of Mexico described comparable unification projects that had been centered in Latin America, but noted significant steps in Latin America to take a wider view of the area appropriate for unification.

T h e General Conditions of Delivery governing sales transactions a m o n g socialist nations that are members of the Council for Mutual Economic Aid (Comecon) seem to satisfy the special needs of trade a m o n g these countries and are not likely to be abandoned. O n the other hand, there was general agreement on the need to unify and clarify rules of law governing trade between Comecon members and other nations. T h e Colloquium found no disharmony between the trend to work toward unification on a world-wide scale and the desire of groups of states to choose a more intimate approach to unification within an area having close ties derived from kindred economic or legal systems. Indeed, the two 1964 Hague Conventions on uniform laws for international sales explicitly permit groups of states to preserve special legal relationships a m o n g themselves while joining in the wider system of unification established by these Conventions.

T h e question of regional or international scope for standard contracts led to significant proposals for further action. In the past, the most important work for the development of standard contracts has been centered in the Economic C o m m i s sion for Europe of the United Nations. The Colloquium discussed measures to m a k e these contracts available for larger areas of the world market, and explored the possibility of extending the reach of this work through an arm of the United Nations with even wider representation than the Economic Commission for Europe. The Colloquium was also hospitable to the suggestion that standard contracts be extended not only by preparing further contracts for specific commodities, but also by preparing standard contracts for wide classes of commodities. This latter proposal was designed not only to m a k e standard contracts more widely available, but also to help neutralize the pressures towards provisions favouring sellers (or buyers) of an important commodity w h e n that interest has particularly strong national representation.

These important proposals to broaden and intensify the work on standard contracts and uniform laws led to this basic question: W h a t institutional framework will best sustain the work that must be done to reach the agreed goals? A definitive answer lay outside the assignment for the Colloquium, but the nature of the goals supported by the participants suggests the general direction within which an answer should be sought.

It is self-evident that the various important proposals accepted by the Colloquium can only be realized through continuous and persistent work. Colloquia and conferences can point the way; completion of the job requires a centre for sustained work.

H o w broad an assignment should be given to such a centre? T h e Colloquium worked from the premise that its problem concerned a market that was world-wide; commodities produced in one region m a y m o v e to almost any other region of the world, and disharmony of legal rules is aggravated where trade spans not only remote distances but also sharply divergent legal systems. T h e centre must have more than regional reach and representation.

T h e centre needs to take an integrated view of alternative techniques for harmonization. T h e Colloquium demonstrated the need for the further development of both standard contracts and uniform laws. These two legal tools work together, for the patterns of commercial practice that emerge from the preparation of standard contracts need to be employed in work on uniform legislation; these two tools for international trade need to be forged together.

366 T h e world of the social sciences

All of these considerations suggest that a centre for persistent work should be established within the United Nations—a Ministry of Justice for scientific, n o n -political work to strengthen the legal framework for a developing world market.

National income distribution

Palermo Conference, September 1964

Jean Marchai

The International Economic Association held a conference from 2 to 9 September 1964 in Palermo, Sicily, to consider the distribution of national income between social groups and income policy. Professor Jean Marchai (Paris) was chairman of the programme committee; he was assisted by Professor E . Preiser (Federal Republic of Germany) , Professor Phelps Brown (United Kingdom) and Professor Plotnikov (Soviet Union).

Forty participants discussed the twenty-six reports submitted. The reports fall into several groups. T h e first, factual, traced the history of

trends in distribution in the various countries: the industrialized countries of the west, the developing countries, and countries with wholly planned economies. These reports, providing an exceptionally rich source of information, included a remarkable synthesis by Professor B . Haley (Stanford) of the results of American statistical work; a far-reaching analysis of social groups by Professor J. Lecaillon (Paris); an original regrouping of G e r m a n statistics by Dr . A . Jeck (Munich); a paper by Dr. C . H . Feinstein (Cambridge) on the United Kingdom; and the contribution of Professor M . Falise (Lille), which not only traced the development of distribution in the small industrial, free enterprise country of Belgium but embarked upon a critical examination of the Kaldor model.

O f the m a n y lessons that can be drawn from these papers, a few only are dealt with below.

(a) M a n y mode rn authors and several of the speakers referred to a general division of income into two categories: salaries o n one side and on the other profits, i.e., anything other than salaries.

So far as this m e a n s agreeing that income from capital and from the enterprise constitutes an a m o u n t whose total vo lume is determined separately from income resulting from labour, and that this a m o u n t is then, as a second stage, divided u p amongst those w h o bring outside capital to the enterprise (as interest) and shareholders (as dividends) and funds reserved for auto-financing, there would appear to be n o objection, and none was in fact raised.

H o w e v e r , m a n y writers and m a n y of those w h o spoke also believe that the income of individual entrepreneurs—especially in agriculture—should be broken d o w n into profit o n capital and wages for w o r k done. This view (which J. Lecaillon and I have criticized in previous papers) caused a lively and interesting discussion. It appeared finally that a tripartite division—industrial wages, industrial profits, agricultural income—must be m a d e in m a n y cases and especially in distribution studies, but that, in other research, the bipartite wages-profits division could not be dispensed with.

(b) It was noted that, in m a n y countries, trends in wages are subject to sudden breaks, especially as regards amount . Professor K . O h k a w a (Tokyo) stressed the point in relation to Japan, but this was not the only case.

Meetings 367

T h e following point gave rise to some controversy. Should the break factors be considered as purely exogenous and treated as such by economists in their models, or should some of them—such as the extension of trade unionism, changes in behaviour of those sharing in the distribution, shifts from one sector to another (especially from the agricultural to the industrial)—not be considered as partly endogenous and integrated into economic analysis? T h e second position was defended by the present writer.

Special reports were devoted to the developing countries. Professor R . G e n darme (Nancy), on the basis of observations m a d e during long periods he spent in Madagascar and Algeria, discussed possible approaches. Professor Maria Negre-ponti-Delivanis (Thessalonika) offered to construct a model and submitted a preliminary draft. Professor E . Gannage (Beirut) m a d e what might be considered a really complete compilation of statistical results. Dr . P . Okigbo (Lagos) w h o had been unable to come but w h o sent a report, provided some views—despite the lack of documentation—on distribution in the African countries.

A number of papers concentrated on the countries of eastern Europe: those by Professor D . Allachverdjan and Professor A . Petrov (Moscow), Dr . A . Bruzek and Dr . L . Urban (Prague) and Dr . Julia Zala (Budapest).

A second series of reports was devoted to theoretical problems, including two remarkable papers by Professor W . Krelle (Bonn) and Professor R . Solow ( C a m bridge, Mass.). T h e first introduced an econometric model designed to demonstrate the development of distribution trends in Germany . T h e second showed that actual employment coincides only accidentally with the employment which would normally be necessary. For various reasons, enterprises at certain times save up m a n power, so to speak, and at other times give it back to the market. This has important repercussions on the relationship to be established between the wage received and the marginal productivity of labour.

Other very interesting papers were those by Professor M . Reder (Stanford) w h o , from the distinction of ordinal and cardinal, deduced a series of effects on the wage-productivity relationship; Professor C . Fohl (Berlin), w h o suggests introducing into distribution theory an additional function to cover the diversity of productivity in the different enterprises; Professor Bronfenbrenner (Pittsburg), w h o defended neo-classic traditional theory, perhaps to excess, but brilliantly and intelligently; Professor P . Norregaard-Rasmussen (Copenhagen), w h o dealt with the relationship between growth and distribution; and—last to be mentioned but certainly not least—Professor G . U . Papi ( R o m e ) , President of the Association, w h o m a d e a very acute analysis of State influence on distribution.

Professor A . Alchian (Los Angeles) started a lively controversy by suggesting that neither wage-earners nor pensioners are victims of inflation. This thesis was vigorously attacked by Professor André Marchai (Paris), w h o had introduced the discussion, and by Professor E . James (Paris).

T h e last group of papers dealth with practical applications and, in particular, income policy. There were only three in all, but these were extremely thought-provoking: by Professor H . Brochier (Paris), w h o dealt with the latest work of the French Planning Authority and added some excellent critical observations; by Professor R . Tress (Bristol), m e m b e r of the British incomes commission; and by Professor L . Fauvel (Paris), on agricultural income.

These papers gave rise to an animated discussion, in which, by and large, European economists (English included) and American (Professor Solow excepted) took opposites sides. Generally speaking, Professors Reder, Bronfenbrenner and Alchian (Professor Haley had left by then) were hostile to an income policy which they considered a deplorable State intervention and a deformation of capitalism. Professor Solow alone amongst the Americans present defended this policy, pointing out that, if it were rejected, there seemed no alternative—if a stable average price level was to be ensured—to a high level of under-employment, with all that that

368 T h e world of the social sciences

implied. Those w h o defended the policy, and especially Professor Brochier, were nevertheless careful to call attention to all its drawbacks.

O u r only regret after the conference was that it had not proved possible to devote m o r e time to income policy, a subject which had aroused so lively an interest.1 It is one that might well be discussed at a further conference.

T h e Fifth Symposium of the International

Association of French-speaking Sociologists

Quebec, September-October 1964.

J e a n Cazeneuve

T h e theme of the symposium was: 'Social classes in present-day society'. It took place near Quebec, Canada, from 29 September to 4 October 1964, the Chairman being M r . Georges Gurvitch.

Speakers were asked to avoid purely technical considerations and deal in their papers with actual conditions in the various countries.

A first series of papers dealt with social classes in tropical Africa. M r . Balandier showed h o w inequalities in die traditional societies had not been particularly marked. Colonization had given rise to institutions in the African countries which were conducive to die formation of social classes, but at the same time inhibited the emergence of such classes. Under independence, m a n y conditions seem to favour class formation; yet the revolutionary upheavals that are taking place affect the old hierachies more than die n e w . Rivalry takes the form more of a struggle to dominate in the n e w ruling class than of a real class conflict.

M r . Mercier recalled diat rules and theoreticians in Africa usually preached a form of socialism that lay outside the class struggle, but that this elite's identification witii die population as a whole was already openly contested. T h e ruling class was tending to become exclusive, and was reproached with becoming bourgeois.

M r . Agblemanion said diat in T o g o any dialogue between the traditional élite which held power and the n e w intelligentsia was difficult; it was not classes which were opposed, but concepts of the world.

T h e next diree papers were devoted to the Arab countries. M r . Berque recalled that die Arab countries had a typology of social categories before die popularization of Marxist ideas. T w o possible systems of interpretation were n o w offered: one, Islamic, founded on the Koran, with a philanthropic vision of humanity that m a d e class struggles superfluous, subordinating hierarchies to social function; the other, Marxist, which found die realities of the Arab countries very difficult to digest. W h a t finally was important was the quest for the specific in developing situations, the opposition to depersonalization, and then die positive effort of construction.

M r . Duvignaud pointed out that in die history of Tunisia it was not easy to detect the appearance of social classes. It was probably die merchants w h o saw themselves most clearly as a class.

1. Since the Palermo Conference, the writer has reverted to this subject in an article entitled, 'Les conditions de l'équilibre macro-économique dans la stabilité des prix', which appeared in Revue économique, November 1964.

Meetings 369

M r . Zghlal dealt with the effects of the modernization of agriculture on social classes in the Tunisian countryside.

Mrs . Michel-Vieille referred to the efforts of the F L N to prevent the upper middle class from consolidating their position in Algeria; she explained various divisions amongst workers and the distrust of the rural population for town-dwellers.

In a paper on south-east Asia, M r . Condominas spoke of the complexity of middle-class outlooks and the antagonism between mountain-dwellers and lowland peoples, the former being a social group which is not a social class but can no longer be considered an ethnic group.

Three papers were devoted to social classes in Belgium. M r . Pierre de Bie spoke of socio-cultural aspects of social mobility in Belgium, and particularly in relation to the university, within the State, and in regard to linguistic trends (a n e w Flemish élite was n o w advancing its claims to be considered as an administrative class). M r . Bolle de Bal showed Belgian wage-earners seeking a lost ideology, and M r . Spitaels showed the independents in quest of a collective conscience.

O n the subject of Switzerland, M r . Girod spoke of the relationship between social classes and political parties, the latter being little different in ideology but being constantly renewed from within as new generations arrived on the scene. M r . Erard showed that there were social classes in Switzerland although people hated to admit it. H e provided data about Swiss upper middle-class businessmen and pointed out that Switzerland had a proletariat of foreign origin.

There was a great difference in Italy, M r . Treves said, between the industrialized north and the agricultural south. In the north, there was a struggle between the working class and a dynamic bourgeoisie. T h e ruling class in the south had lost its prestige. O n the whole, it was difficult for outsiders to enter the Italian upper class.

T w o papers on Germany followed. M r . Eisermann said that the 'economic miracle' had led to the reconstitution of the former social classes but that the barriers between them were m u c h less clear-cut than before. M r . Kcenig traced the origins of the present trends back to well before the last war. T h e middle classes tended to become differentiated. T h e upper class was withdrawing from politics and becoming invisible; it no longer provided a model. T h e essential feature was perhaps the development of mores within the classes.

T h e consideration of social classes in France started with M r . Pierre George's description of the transformation of rural society in France: the loss of status and diminution of rural society, the extension of urban society into rural territory, the n e w social view of that territory. M r . Jean Weiler examined the influence of the C o m m o n Market and other international commitments on income policy in France. M r . G o l d m a n n dealt with the cultural consequences of the collapse of class consciousness. M r . Mallet showed h o w a new working class had come to claim a share in management.

In Yugoslavia, M r . Mandic pointed out, old social elements and n e w still co-existed; social classes (land-owners, agricultural workers, artisan-owners, artisan-workers, workers in agricultural industries) were left-overs from capitalism.

T h e same was true of Poland. M r . Szczepanski spoke in turn of the traditional social classes and strata and of the factors that were bringing about changes, and showed h o w former class traits sometimes tended to reappear in the professional categories

37° T h e world of the social sciences

M r . Jonas spoke of the complexity of social problems in Israel.

In regard to Latin America, M r . Casanova said that, in Mexico, the working-class had no class consciousness and Marxism, emptied of its content, had become part of a bourgeois education. Miss Péreira de Queiroz referred to the role of education in Brazil a m o n g rural people drawn to the towns; M r . Desroches spoke of workers' associations in Brazil. M r . Salvador de la Plaza attributed the lack of social consciousness in the various social classes in Venezuela to distortions produced by foreign exploitation.

M r . Naraghi read a paper on entrepreneur groups and their relation to development in Iran.

Five papers were devoted to class problems in Canada. M r . Falardeau m a d e a sociological analysis of the class of French-speaking merchants, business m e n and industrialists w h o only very recently had acquired managerial status, and explained the reasons for this time lag. M r . Fernand D u m o n t reached the same conclusions after considering the ideological manifestations of social classes in the province of Quebec and showing that the economic lag of French-speaking Canadians was due to a long-held outlook dominated by peasant values and contempt for money and business; only recently had that ideology been called in question. Dealing with the relationship between ethnic consciousness and class consciousness, M r . Marcel Rioux explained h o w people in Quebec had ceased to consider themselves simply as culture carriers and wanted to set up their o w n industrial state. Ethnic consciousness had long masked class consciousness; n o w they overlapped and reinforced one another. M r . Gerald Fortin pointed out that workers and those engaged in agriculture looked like developing into two classes. M r . Robert Sévigny referred to several sociological surveys amongst Canadian students which threw light on the relationship between class and religious attitudes. M r . Dofny presented the results of his research on hopes of promotion and the 'American dream' a m o n g metallurgical workers in Montreal.

Apart from the specific data provided about various countries, the symposium helped to show that the concept of social class must be redefined and that formulae hitherto employed are no longer adequate to cope with new realities. Social mutations were seen to m a k e classes the architects of the future at the same time as they are the administrators of the past; classes must be studied in a pluralist perspective, special attention being devoted to their relationship to the national consciousness, their role in the spread of industrial civilization, and the originality of die problem of the developing countries.

T h e symposium terminated with a commemorative meeting to mark the centenary of the death of Proudhon. M r . Gurvitch defined doctrinal nuances as between Proudhon and M a r x , and M r . Goriély referred to Proudhon's unique position in regard to nationalism.

Announcements

Dictionary of the Social Sciences

A Dictionary of the Social Sciences, in English, edited by Julius Gould, Professor of Sociology, University of Nottingham, and William L . Kolb, D e a n of the College, Beloit College, Wisconsin, and compiled under the auspices of Unesco, has been published by Tavistock Publications, London , and the Free Press of Glencoe, N e w York, at £6.i6s. or $19.50.

T h e dictionary describes and defines approximately one thousand terms and concepts of fundamental importance in the social sciences. T h e terms have been selected from the fields of sociology, political science, social anthropology, social psychology, and economics, and are presented in the form of brief essays prepared by 275 eminent authorities in the disciplines concerned.

Each essay outlines the history of the usage of the term; discusses the variations of current usage; gives, where possible, a single definition; and assesses the significance of the concept. T h e exposition is illustrated by extensive quotations from the literature, with bilibographical details, and the terms are fully cross-referenced.

Similar dictionaries in French, Spanish and Arabic are being prepared, and their publication will be announced in due course in these pages.

Int. Soc. Sei. J., Vol. XVII, No. 2, 1965

Documents and publications

of the United Nations

and Specialized Agencies1

General Series. Population, health, food

CARTOGRAPHY

United Nations Technical Conference on the International Map of the World on the Millionth Scale. Vo l . i: Report and Proceedings. B o n n , 3-22 August 1962. 1963. 141 p . $2 . ( U N / E / C O N F . 4 0 / 8 . )

Report o n the Conference. Digest of the plenary sessions a n d of the meetings of the four committees (general questions regarding the presentation a n d content of the m a p , cartographic representation, type of case for the m a p , questions relating to its publication). D o c u m e n t s submitted to the Conference. Resolutions a n d specimen sheets.

United Nations Technical Conference on the International Map of the World on the Millionth Scale (IMW). Vol. 2. Bonn, 3 to 22 August 1962. 1964. 107 p. $1.50. ( U N / E / coNF.40/g.)

English and French text of the specifications of the map . Tables of conventional signs adopted. Technical information for the use of the national cartographic services responsible for the preparation of the sheets.

STATISTICAL METHODS

Supplement to the Manual on training of statistical personnel at the primary and intermediate levels. 1964. 246 p . $3 . ( U N / E / c N . n / 6 4 5 . )

Notes a n d exercises designed to assist in the preparation of courses a n d discussions. Definition of statistics. Principles a n d m e t h o d s . Designing a n d organizing a statistical survey. Assembly of the data. Analysis a n d presentation. Critical evaluation. Administration of statistical services.

Recommendations for the preparation of sample survey reports. 1964. 16 p . $0.35. ( U N / S T / S T A T / S E R . C / I R e v . 2 . )

[Bl.] Practical advice o n the presentation of sample survey reports. Contents of the m a i n sections. Description of the m e t h o d employed . Presentation of results.

1. A s a general rule no mention is made oí publications and documents which are issued more or less automatically—regular administrative reports, minutes of meetings, etc. Free translations have been given of the titles of some publications and documents which w e were unable to obtain in time in English. The titles thus translated are indicated by an asterisk (*) in the margin. The following conventional abbreviations have been used: Bl. = Contains a particularly interesting bibliography. St. = Specially important or rare statistics.

Int. Soc. Set. /., Vol. XVII, No. 2, 1965

Documents and publications 373

POPULATION

Demographic yearbook (ig63). 1964. 743 p . $11. (UN/64.XIH.1.) Detailed information on the populations of nearly 250 countries and territories: breakdown by age-groups, region, area of residence (country or town), nationality, religion, etc.; educational levels; size of families; birth rate, death rate, marriage and divorce rates.

National programmes of analysis of population census data as an aid to planning and policy making. 1964. 67 p . Si. (UN/sT/soA/sER.A/36.)

A paper, based on the work of two cycles of studies on the evaluation, analysis and utilization of census data: selection of subjects and material to be supplied for d e m o graphic analysis; studies on population growth and structure, on labour, on needs and on standards of living.

Inquiry among Governments on problems resulting from the reciprocal action of economic development and population changes. M a y 1964. 99 p . (UN/E/3895 . )

Analysis of replies from forty-three governments. Demographic trends in various regions of the world. General reflections of these governments regarding the nature and significance of the problems raised. Information about the statistics available and the action being currently taken by governments.

Annual epidemiological and vital statistics. ig6i. 1964. 741 p . $18. ( W H O . ) This volume is in three parts: 1. Population movement and causes of death, 2. Deaths from infectious diseases. 3. Statistics of medical and ancillary staff and hospitals. T h e statistics are grouped by country and cover the whole world.

Epidemiological and vital statistics report. 1964. Vol. 17, N o . 8. 63 p . $2. Vol. 17, N o . 9 . 29 p. $1. (WHO.)

[St.] Sections of a running digest of world statistics of population movements and the incidence of various diseases and causes of death. Items to be noted are a study on typhoid and paratyphoid from 1946 to 1963 in N o . 8 and a study on acute anterior poliomyelitis between 1951 and 1962 in N o . 9.

Enteric infections. Technical Reports Series N o . 288. 1964. 35 p . Si. ( W H O . ) Report of a committee of experts. Data on the cases of illness and deaths attributed to enteric infections. Factors conducing to such infections. Public health measures recommended. Lines of research to be envisaged.

WHO Expert Committee on Tuberculosis. Technical Report Series N o . 290. 1964. 24 p . $0.60. ( W H O . )

Problems posed by the organization of effective measures against tuberculosis in the various socio-economic milieux. T h e role of W H O .

Housing programmes: The role of public health agencies. Public Health Papers N o . 25. 1964. 197 p. $2.75. ( W H O . )

[St.] Contains five essays: responsibilities of the public health authorities in the sphere of housing; basic principles of housing hygiene in the U . S . S . R . ; planning of housing programmes; community aspects of housing hygiene in Ceylon; economic and financial aspects of housing programmes.

FOOD

The world rice economy. Vol . II: Trends and forces. R o m e 1963. 107 p . $1. ( F A O . ) [St. Bl.] This volume—No. II—consists of studies of the long-term trends in rice

374 T h e world of the social sciences

consumption and production and the international rice trade (developments in the main producer countries since before the Second World W a r ; factors affecting prospects of production and trade; structures of rice consumption).

Social structures, economics

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF DISARMAMENT

Economic and social consequences of disarmament. Conversion to peaceful needs of the resources released by disarmament. July 1964. 7 p. ( U N / E 7 3 8 9 8 / 2 . )

This report by the Secretary-General was prepared for the thirty-seventh session of the Economic and Social Council and summarizes the studies m a d e in various countries of the economic and social measures which would be required in the event of disarmament (measures under the head of general planning; formulae for adjustment during the conversion period).

Economic and social consequences of disarmament. Conversion to peaceful needs of the resources released by disarmament. July 1964. 48 p. (UN/E/3898 /ADD.1-4 . )

Replies from Canada, Czechoslovakia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Kenya , the Netherlands, N e w Zealand, Nigeria, Norway , Thailand, Uganda , United K i n g d o m , United States of America and U . S . S . R .

SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT

Problems of the programming of social development. April 1963. 33 p. ( U N / E / C N . / I 2 / 6 6 I . ) Definition of the notion of social development. Advances achieved in the programming of the development of education, health services and domestic building.

Social development of Latin America in the post-war period. April 1964. 169 p. ( U N / E / C N . 12/660.)

[St.] A study by the Economic Commission for Latin America. T h e urbanization process. Position in the rural and urban zones. Special analysis of the problem of the development of a middle class. Its function in economic development. Its political, social and economic ambitions. Its internal tensions, its relations with the urban working class. T h e trade unions. T h e n e w ideologies. Political action.

THE ECONOMIC SITUATION, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

World economic survey, /p6j?. Part. II: Current economic developments. June 1964. 19 p. ( U N / E / 3 9 0 2 and 4 Addenda, from 2 to 116 p.)

[St.] Evolution of the world economic situation (production, domestic balance of trade; exchanges and external balance of trade). Addenda 1 to 3 analyse the trends in the economies of the major categories of countries; industrialized countries, exporters of primary products, countries with planned economies. A d d e n d u m 4 deals with the primary products market in 1962-64.

World economic survey, 1963. Part I: Trade and development: trends, needs and policies. 1964. 306 p. (UN/E/3908. )

[St. Bl.] International trade and its importance for economic development. International problems relating to primary products. Trade in manufactured and semifinished goods. Financing of international trade.

The economic development of Latin America in the post-war period. April 1964. 147 p. (UN/E/cN.12 /659 and A d d . )

[St.] General trends of economic development in Latin America for the region as

Documents and publications 375

a whole and according to groups of countries. T h e financial aspect. Production. Export trends. Social development. Population characteristics. Distribution of income in Latin America.

Economic survey of Latin America, 1963. July 1964. 115 p . ( U N / E / C N . 12/696 with 2 Addenda of 315 and 187 p.)

[St. Bl.] Evolution of m e Latin American economy over the last few years. General and country-by-country analyses. Analyses by sectors. Factors governing production, d e m a n d and resources available. Investment. Exchanges. Balance of payments.

Some factors in economic growth in Europe during the 1950's. 1964. 283 p. $4. ( U N / E / ECE/452/Add. 1.)

[St.] Covers Western and Eastern Europe, including the Soviet Union. Rates of growth per country and per sector. Analysis of the influence of die evolution of the forms of work and organization, of capitali nvestments and of technical progress. Detailed comparisons of the economic growth of five countries: Federal Republic of Germany, France, Norway, United K i n g d o m and Hungary.

Economic developments in the Middle East, 1961-1963. 1964. 147 p . $2. (UN/E/3910. ) [St.] Significant aspects of the region's economic development during the period under consideration. Analyses by country and by sector (agriculture, industry and mines, oil, foreign trade and payments).

NATURAL RESOURCES, POWER, MINES

* The natural resources of Latin America. Present state of information and research needed in this field. April 1963. 42 p. ( U N / E / C N . 12/670 and various addenda.)

[Bl.] Mapping, statistics and other methods of determining the natural resources. T h e present position and possible means of improvement.

Report of the Committee on Industry and Natural Resources (16th session) to the Commission (soth session). (Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East) February 1964. 72 p. ( U N / E / C N . 11/652.)

This report on the sixteenth session of the committee sums up development of industry and natural resources in the area concerned (mines, electricity, fertilizers, small and large industries, building materials, training of cadres, productivity, regional co-operation).

General report: Recent trends in the coal industry. 111 p. (ILO.) [St. Bl.] Report of the Coal Mines Committee (8th session), Geneva, 1964. Factors influencing world coal consumption. Employment in the coal industry. Pension systems and the miners' charter. T h e coal industry in the developing countries. Problems of reconversion.

Techniques of petroleum development. 1964. 345 p. $4. ( U N / S T / T A O / S E R . C / 6 O . ) Papers by experts covering the whole field of petroleum development from oil prospecting to sale of the products.

AGRICULTURE

Agricultural mechanization. N e w York 1964. 19 p. ( U N / A G R i / M E C H / 2 7 . ) [BL] Report of the Economic Commission for Europe, based on information from Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark , Greece, Hungary, Norway, Poland, U . S . S . R . , United K i n g d o m and the United States of America.

European timber trends and prospects, a new appraisal. 1950-1975. 1964. 233 p. $3. ( F A O . ) [St.] T h e need for Europe to develop its timber industry and to seek new sources of

376 T h e world of the social sciences

supply. Statistics on timber production and consumption (building, mines, paper, etc.). Trade in timber.

The planting practices for arid zones. 1964. 223 p. $3. ( F A O . ) [Bl.] Growing economic importance of reafforestation throughout the world. T h e special case of the arid zones. Current techniques.

INDUSTRY

^Problems and prospects confronting industrial development in Latin America. April 1963. 170 p . (UN/E/CN.12 /664 . )

[St.] A critical analysis of the conditions which have governed the industrialization of Latin America to date. Special studies on various sectors: the iron and steel industry, the chemical industry, cellulose, machinery, textiles.

^Preliminary study of the possibilities of integrated industrial development in Central America. 1964. 54 p. $0.75. ( U N / E / C N . 12/683/Rev. 1.)

[St.] A collection of studies of a variety of subjects (sheet steel, welded pipes, glass containers, sheet glass, electric bulbs, insecticides, chlorine, soda, oil derivatives, viscose) examining the present position and the possibilities as regards regional coordination of development.

*The textile industry in Chile. April 1962. 216 p. ( U N / E / C N . 12/622.) [St.] T h e textile industry in relation to the manufacturing sector in general. H o w distributed geographically. R a w materials, equipment and production. Foreign trade.

* The manufacture of machinery and industrial equipment in Latin America: machine tools in Brazil. 1962. 49 p . $0.75. ( U N / E / C N . 12/633.)

[St.] T h e necessity of increasing production of machine tools. T h e present position. Possibilities of expansion between n o w and 1970. Machine tool imports and Brazilian-made output.

* The textile industry in Uruguay. June 1963. 165 p . (UN/E /cN.12 /691 . ) [St.] Present position. Outlets. Productive capacity. Manufacturing costs. Labour. Comparisons between various countries in the region. Prospects.

SOCIOLOGY OF THE INDUSTRIAL ENVIRONMENT

Industrial management in Latin America. M a r c h 1963. 23 p. ( U N / E / C N . 12/642 and 3 Addenda of 50 to 80 pages each.)

Historical, sociological, psychological and economic data concerning the industrialist milieu in Latin America. T h e role of the industrialist. H o w undertaken. Future possibilities. T h e addenda are monographs on Argentina, Brazil and Chile.

TRANSPORT, TRADE

* Transport in Latin America. M a r c h 1963. 69 p . ( U N / E / C N . 12/673.) [St.] Tables showing the development of rail, road and water transport. Railway systems; inland waterway and road systems. T h e merchant marine and the ports. Development problems.

Recent commodity developments. July 1964. ig p . ( U N / E / C N . 13 /SER.A/51 . ) M e m o r a n d u m N o . 51 of the Commission on International C o m m o d i t y Trade. Recent intergovernmental consultations. Information on current trading problems, m o r e especially in regard to basic commodities—cocoa, coffee, copper, cotton, lead, zinc, olive oil, rubber, sugar, wheat.

Documents and publications 377

* Achievements and prospects in the functioning of the regional market. April 1963. 154 p. ( U N / E / C N . 12/668.)

A survey by the Economic Commission for Latin America. General characteristics of exchanges. Commercial policy in regard to maritime and river transport. Other sectors. Financing of the market. Various resolutions annexed.

Report by the Secretariat on the Meeting of Latin American Government Experts on Trade Policy, Brasilia, so to 25 January 1964. February 1964. 55 p . ( U N / E / C N . 12/694.)

A study by the Economic Commission for Latin America. T h e meeting's discussions were about the measures to be adopted to solve certain problems relating to the trade in raw materials, the diversification of exports, financing trade and the integration of the Latin American economy into an expanding world market.

EMPLOYMENT, WORKING CONDITIONS, SOCIAL SECURITY

Employment and economic growth. 1964. 255 p . $2.25. (ILO.) [St. BL] Statistical data on employment, unemployment and underemployment in the countries of the world. Relation to the stage of development. Objectives and principles of employment policy. Employment problems linked with variations in the level of economic activity and with structural changes. Employers' and workers' organizations, possibilities of action.

Automation and the evaluation of training, by S. D . M . King. Offprint from the International Labour Review. September 1964. 19 p . (ILO.)

Outline of the n e w qualifications demanded by automated manufacturing processes. S o m e useful criteria for evaluating training programmes. M e a n s of bridging the existing gap between the training provided in specialized institutions and that given at work.

The industrial wage system in the U.S.S.R., by S. S. Shkurko. Offprint from the International Labour Review. October 1964. 18 p . ( ILO.)

W a g e scales for all categories of workers. Various systems of incentives. Criteria applied.

Old-age pensions and retirement, by T . Higuchi. Offprint from the International Labour Review. October 1964. 21 p . (ILO.)

T h e absolute right to the old-age pension and pensions conditional upon actual non-earning or the extent of the subject's means . Pensioners' possibilities of increasing their pension by paying in extra sums. Examples of the variety of expedients possible. Comparative study of the principles of old-age pension systems in forty countries.

Automation in developing countries, by G . Ardant. Offprint from the International Labour Review. November 1964. 40 p. (ILO.)

Developing countries' hopes of speeding u p their evolution by extensive recourse to automation. Need to adapt these processes, borrowed from the industrialized countries, to the situation of countries less developed technically.

European seminar on the relationship between social security and social services, Sandefjord, Norway, S3 September to 3 October 1963. 1964. 80 p. ( S O A / E S W P / I 9 6 3 / 1 . )

T h e organization and aims of the seminar. Subjects covered: social policy, social security and social services; level of social security allowances; social services replacing social security services; rights of the individual; co-ordination of social policy planning. Outline of proceedings and conclusions.

378 T h e world of the social sciences

PLANNING, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

Training of national technical personnel for accelerated industrialization of developing countries. June 1964. 179 and 173 p . ( U N / E / 3 9 0 1 / A d d . 1 and 2.)

[St. B L ] Detailed documentation on the technical problems involved in estimating the numbers to be trained and in preparing the appropriate instructional prog r a m m e s . Plentiful statistical tables.

*Progress in planning in Latin America. April 1963. 45 p . ( U N / E / C N . 12/677.) Evolution of ideas in Latin America on the content and forms of planning. Analysis of current practice. Planning institutes. M a i n problems to be solved.

Input-output bibliography ig6o-ig63. Statistical papers, series M , N o . 39. 1964. 159 p . $2. ( U N / S T / S T A T / S E R . M / 3 9 . )

[BL] N u m e r o u s references to publications between i960 and 1963 concerning input-output analysis methods. Theory. Mathematical aspects. M a n p o w e r studies. Classification and aggregates.

Long-term economic projections based on studies of the evolution of the worldeconomy. July 1964. 109 p . ( U N / E / 3 8 4 2 . )

[BL] Outline of projection methods for highly developed market economies, centrally planned economies and developing economies.

Methods and principles for projecting future energy requirements. 1964. 141 p . $1. ( U N / S T / E C E / E N E R G Y / 2 . )

A study by the Economic Commission for Europe. Nature of the problem of forecasting. A i m s of forecasts relating to the production and consumption of energy. Basic elements of methodology.

Yearbook of National Accounts Statistics, /o6y. 1964. 333 p . $4. ( U N / 6 4 . X V H . 4 . ) [St. B L ] Covers m o r e than one hundred countries and territories. Basic concepts. Definition of table headings. Tables by country and international tables.

REGIONAL CO-OPERATION

Report of the Consultative Group of Experts on Regional Economic Co-operation in Asia and the Far East. April 1963. 44 p . ( U N / E / C N . I 1/615.)

This report contains the substance of discussions which die group had with various Asian leaders. It deals with the following subjects: Asia's economic role in the world; trends in favour of regional action emerging elsewhere in the world; the consequences for Asia; existing regional co-operation programmes in Asia; advances achieved; possibilities of economic development thereby created; regional cooperation in die sphere of trade and industrial development; agricultural and mining production; improvement of the means of transport; part to be played by outside assistance.

Education, science

SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF SCIENTIFIC PROGRESS

Social implications of the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. Otto Klineberg, editor. T e c h nology and Society Series. 1964. 169 p . $2.10. (Unesco.)

A n examination, by an international group of specialists from a n u m b e r of separate disciplines, of opinions and facts in this connexion. T h e Norwegian sociologist, J. Galtung, considers students' attitudes regarding the possible peaceful uses of

Documents and publications 379

atomic energy, using the results of surveys carried out in Brazil, the United States, France, Japan, Norway and Poland. T w o British biologists, J. F . Loutit and A . G . Searle, give an account of the scientific data available on the effects of such uses on health and heredity, while the Austrian psychiatrist, H . Hoff, discusses the anxieties associated with the development of nuclear techniques. T h e G e r m a n sociologist, R . Dahrendorf, outlines some of die consequences of the use of these techniques on the division of labour, on social stratification, on educational systems, on relations between advanced countries and others, and on the forms of political organization. K . G . Saiyidain adopts the scholastic viewpoint in determining the n e w tasks of educators in the atomic era. Sir Arnold Plant sums up present knowledge about die changes which atomic energy will involve on the economic level. T h e Soviet sociologist, A . Zvorikin, comments on the social and moral problems arising from current technical developments of which one aspect is the use of atomic energy. Finally, M . D . Hassialis of Columbia University emphasizes the need to speed up and rationalize the circulation of information between scientists, technicians and users.

EDUCATIONAL A N D CULTURAL STATISTICS

Unesco Statistical Yearbook: igß^. 472 p. Bilingual: English-French. 1964. $4.20. (Unesco.)

After various experiments of more limited scope, Unesco n o w issues the first example of a statistical yearbook on education and culture covering all countries for which data are available. The principal statistical data are of total population, the 5-9, 10-14 a n d 15-19 age groups (plus projections up to 1975), illiterates, educational levels, lengths of compulsory schooling and of die various cycles of studies, educational institutions, teaching personnel and pupils, universities, libraries and museums, book publishing, die Press, films, radio and television.

TEACHING PERSONNEL

Expert Committee on Teachers' Status (Paris, 4-15 May 1364). August 1964. 44 p. (Unesco/ED/206.)

In conjunction with the International Labour Organisation, Unesco is preparing the text of a basic document on the measures to be taken to counter the shortage of teachers, more especially by improving the living conditions of those concerned. A n expert committee convened by I L O examined the economic and social aspects of the problem. T h e expert committee n o w under discussion was convened by Unesco and dealt with the question of recruiting teachers, teacher-training and various related problems. T h e present document gives the proceedings and conclusions of this committee.

LITERACY

World Campaign for Universal Literacy. June 1964. 17 p. (including 6 annexes). ( U N /

E / 3 9 2 7 - ) This communication from the Director-General of Unesco includes the text of resolution 1937 (XVIII) of the United Nations General Assembly (18th session, December 1963) concerning this Campaign, together with those of the resolutions adopted in the same connexion by the Economic Commission for Africa (2 March 1964), the Economic Commission for Asia and die Far East (17 March 1964), the Conference of Ministers of Education of African Countries (20 M a r c h 1964) and the Executive Board of Unesco (67th session). T h e author then puts forward his conclusions.

Adult literacy and economic and social development. February 1964. 20 p. ( U N / E / C N . 11/654.)

This Unesco survey covers Asia and the Far East. It emphasizes the urgent need

38o T h e world of the social sciences

to conduct a campaign against illiteracy in this region with a view to promoting social and economic development. It indicates the cost which should be anticipated and outlines what has already been done in various countries of the region.

ACCESS TO EDUCATION

Meeting of experts on the access of girls to education in the Arab States (Tlemcen, Democratic and Popular Republic of Algeria, 7 to 16 April 1964). August 1964. 9 p. (Unesco/ ED/207.)

Fourteen countries took part in dais meeting. T h e document deals with current educational opportunities for girls in the Arab States, the obstacles confronting them and future prospects. It reports on the meeting and outlines participants' conclusions. A list of the countries represented and a list of the participants are included.

OUT-OF-SCHOOL EDUCATION

International Conference on Youth (Grenoble, S3 August to 1 September 1964). October 1964. 10 p. (Unesco/i3c/pRG/5.)

T h e purpose of the conference was to study out-of-school education for young people in the present-day world and to formulate practical conclusions. It was attended by 175 delegates from 73 countries together with observers. This document contains a s u m m a r y of the discussions and the text of the recommendations addressed to Unesco.

AFRICAN PROBLEMS

Conference of African Ministers of Education. Final report (Abidjan, 17 to 24 March 1964). August 1964. 77 p. (Unesco/ED/205.)

A general programme for educational development in Africa was drawn up in 1962 (Addid A b a b a Plan). T h e Conference of Ministers of Education of African Countries was entrusted with the task of following its implementation. It held its first meeting at Abidjan from 17 to 24 M a r c h 1964. T h e final report covers the discussions and contains the text of the recommendations adopted. It outlines the position in various countries and gives a list of countries represented and the list of participants.

Meeting of directors of educational documentation centres, educational research institutes and audio-visual services in Africa (Accra, 18 to s s August 1964). October 1964. 14 p. (Unesco/ED/210.)

T h e meeting was designed to establish the situation in regard to African educational documentation and research services, to examine their requirements and to encourage co-operation between them and with similar organizations outside Africa. T h e document gives an account of the proceedings, sets out the conclusions and provides a list of the services represented and of the participants.

Afrkan Training and Research Centre in Administration for Development (CAFRAD). Tangiers (Morocco). Information Memorandum. November 1964. 10 p. (Unesco/ss/41.)

T h e background and objectives of the centre. Principles governing its programme in respect of research, training and documentation. Organization. Financing. T h e centre was set up with the assistance of Unesco in order to facilitate the holding of seminars and training courses for senior African staff and to carry out or encourage research on development in relation to public administration, more especially in connexion with the African States.

Documents and publications 381

Legal and political questions, human rights

HUMAN RIGHTS

Periodic report on human rights covering the period ig6o-ig6s. September 1964. 33 p . ( U N / E / c N . 4 / 8 6 o / A d d . 7.)

Report covering Cambodia , Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Kuwait, Nigeria, Philippines, Senegal, Thailand and the United Arab Republic.

DISCRIMINATION

Measures to implement the UN Declaration on the Elimination of all Forms of Racial Discrimination. August 1964. 36 p . ( U N / A / 5 6 9 8 / A d d . 1.)

Steps taken in this field by the Governments of the following countries: Argentina, Bulgaria, China, C u b a , D e n m a r k , Italy, R u m a n i a , Sweden and the U . S . S . R . Action taken by Unesco, by the International Council of Jewish W o m e n , the International Federation of Leagues for the Defence of die Rights of M a n and of Citizens, and the Catholic International U n i o n for Social Service.

INFORMATION

Seminar on freedom of information. September 1964. 44 p . ( U N / S T / T A O / H R / 2 0 . ) This seminar was held in R o m e from 7 to 20 April 1964. Subjects dealt with: the role of governments, press laws, publishers and newspaper owners, professional journalists, journalistic standards.

MARRIAGE

Dissolution of marriage, annulment of marriage and judicial separation. June 1964. 70 p . ( U N / E / c N . 6 / 4 i 5 / A d d . 1.)

A n a d d e n d u m supplementing a previous document issued by the Commission on the Status of W o m e n . Information on the United States of America, Canada, Sweden , India, Switzerland, Yugoslavia, Byelorussia, Finland, Mexico, etc. Current practice. Procedures aimed at altering such practice.

POLITICAL RIGHTS OF WOMEN

Implementation of Ute Convention on the Political Rights of Women by the States Parties thereto. July 1964. 18 p. (UN/E/cN.6/36o/Add. 3.)

This addendum contains information supplied by Byelorussia, by Canada by and Norway.

INTERNATIONAL LAW

Consideration of principles of international law concerning friendly relations and co-operation among States in accordance with the Charter of the UN. July 1964. 51 p. ( U N / A / 5 7 2 5 and Addenda.)

Replies from sixteen States concerning application of die following principles: co-operation between States in accordance with the Charter; equality of rights and self-determination of peoples; good faitíi of States in carrying out obligations assumed in accordance with the Charter; abstention from die threat or use of force ; settlement of international disputes by peaceful means; non-intervention in matters involving the national jurisdiction of States; sovereign equality of States. T h e addenda contain die replies from other States.

382 T h e world of the social sciences

Systematic s u m m a r y , of the comments, statements, proposals and suggestions of Member States in respect of the consideration by the General Assembly of principles of international law concerning friendly relations and co-operation among States in accordance with the Charter of the UN. June 1964. 122 p. ( U N / A / A C . I I O , / L . I . )

T h e various principles submitted to the Special Committee are considered in turn. Each chapter is divided into two parts. Part A contains formal, written proposals relating to the principle concerned, as submitted to the seventeenth and eighteenth sessions of the General Assembly. Part B contains a s u m m a r y of other observations by M e m b e r States bearing on the various aspects of the principle concerned and grouped under appropriate heads.

S u m m a r y of the practice of the U N and of views expressed in the U N by Member States in respect of four of the principles of international law concerning friendly relations and cooperation among States in accordance with the Charter of the UN. June 1964. 220 p . ( U N / A / A C . 1 1 9 / L . 8 . )

A n analysis of various cases in chronological order respecting each of the principles and illustrating some of the main occasions on which the General Assembly or the Security Council were obliged to intervene. In conclusion, a list of all cases in which the four principles concerned were applied.

Legal problems relating to the utilization and use of international rivers. Vol. III. April 1964. 317 p . including annexes. ( U N / A / 5 4 0 9 . )

[Bl.] This volume comprises the third and fourth parts of an over-all survey. T h e third part contains summaries of the decisions handed d o w n by international courts, including arbitration rulings. T h e fourth part provides a general picture of the surveys already carried out or in process of being carried out by non-governmental organizations concerned with international law. T h e text of declarations and resolutions and a list of publications are appended.

POLITICAL QUESTIONS

Report of the Special Committee on the Situation with Regard to the Implementation of the Declaration on the Granting of Independence to Colonial Countries and Peoples. Southern Rhodesia. August 1964. 196 p . ( U N / A / 5 8 0 0 / A d d . i . )

Decisions taken since 1963. Information on the territory concerned. Text of written petitions and records of hearings.

Local government in selected countries—Ceylon, Israel, Japan. October 1963. 113 p . $1.50. ( U N / S T / T A O / M / 2 0 . )

Monographs relating to the above countries.

Remedies against the abuse of administrative authority. Selected studies. July 1964. 167 p . ( U N / s T / T A o / H R / 1 9 . )

Six studies devoted to ways of combating abuse of administrative authority. T h e first three concern the various techniques for preventing abuses in France, the United K i n g d o m and the U . S . S . R . T h e last three studies deal with practice in the Scandinavian countries.

Books received

General or methodological works

Activities (The) of Unesco in science and technology. Paris, Unesco, 1964. 27 c m . , 24 p . , fig., tabl. (Unesco information manuals.)

A L L S W A N G , John M . ; B O V A , Patrick, eds. NORC social research 1941-1964. A n inventory of studies and publications in social research. Chicago, National Opinion Research Center, 1964. 28 c m . , bibliogr. Index. (The National Opinion Research Center. T h e University of Chicago.)

B E H R M A N , Daniel. Réseaux du progrès. Quelques aspects de l'action scientifique de V Unesco. Paris, Unesco, 1964. 21 c m . , 119 p., pi.

B E H R M A N , Daniel. Web of progress. Unesco at work in science and technology. Paris, Unesco, 1964. 21 c m . , 103 p., pi.

Bibliography of proceedings of international meetings held in 19581Bibliographie des comptes rendus des réunions internationales tenues en 1958. Brussels, Union of International Associations, 1964. 21 c m . , 400 p. Index. $8. (Publication 187.)

G R E G G , J. V . ; H O S S E L L , C . H . ; R I C H A R D S O N , J. T . Mathematical trend curves: an aid to forecasting. Edinburgh, Oliver and Boyd, 1964. 25 c m . , viii + 99 p. , fig., tabl. 18s. (Imperial Chemical Industries. Mathematical and statistical techniques for industry. Monograph 1.)

M C G H E E , George. Natürliche Hilfsquellen der Welt: die Situation heute und in der Zukunft] The world's natural resources position: present and future. Köln, Opladen, Westdeutscher Verlag, 1964. 24 c m . , 60 p., tabl. (Arbeitsgemeinschaft für Forschung des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen. Natur-, Ingenieur- und Gesellschaftswissenschaften. Heft 136.)

Short-term forecasting [by] G . A . Coutie, O . L . Davies, C . H . Hossell, and others. Edinburgh, Oliver and Boyd, 1964. 26 c m . , viii + 36 p., fig., tabl. 12s. 6d. (Imperial Chemical Industries. Mathematical and statistical techniques for industry. Monograph 2.)

W A T S O N , Bruce; T A R R , William. The social sciences and American civilization. N e w York, London, Sydney, J. Wiley and Sons, 1964. 23 c m . , x + 584 p. Bibliogr. Index. 60s.

W O O D W A R D , R . H . ; G O L D S M I T H , P . L . Cumulative sum techniques. Edinburgh, Oliver and Boyd, 1964. 25 c m . , viii + 66 p., fig., pi., tabl. 18s. (Imperial Chemical Industries. Mathematical and statistical techniques for industry. Monograph 3.)

History B O Y D , Julian P . Number 7. Alexander Hamilton's secret attempts to control American

foreign policy, with supporting documents. Princeton (N.J.), Princeton University Press, 1964. 22 c m . , xviii + 166 p. Index. 32s.

Int. Soc. Set. J., Vol. XVII, No. 2, 1965

384 The world of the social sciences

B R O W N , Robert Craig. Canada's national policy 1883-1 goo. A study in Canadian-American relations. Princeton (N.J.), Princeton University Press, 1964. 21 c m . , xii -f- 436 p., fig., m a p . Bibliogr. Index. $9.

D O R P A L E N , Andreas. Hindenburg and the Weimar republic. Princeton (N.J.) , Princeton University Press, 1964. 24 c m . , xiv + 506 p., pi. Bibliogr. Index. $12.

Histoire (V) et l'historien [by] Alphonse Dupront, Roger Aubert, Pierre Vilar, M a u rice Crubellier and others. Paris, A . Fayard, 1964. 20 c m . , 230 p. (Recherches et débats du Centre catholique des intellectuels français. 47.)

K U Z N E C O V , Boris Grigo'evic. Evol'ucija osnovnyh idej elektrodinamiki. Moskva, Izdatel-stvo Akademii nauk S S S R , 1963. 17 c m . , 295 p. Bibliogr. 78 kopeks. (Akademija nauk S S S R . Institut istorii estestvoznanija i tehniki.)

L I N G N A I - M I N , Tibetan sourcebook. H o n g K o n g , Union Research Institute, 1964. 23 c m . , xii + 485 p., m a p . Bibliogr.

L I N K , Arthur S. Wilson. Confusions and crises igi$-igi6. Princeton (N.J.), Princeton University Press, 1964. 24 c m . , xiv + 386 p., fig., pi., portr. Bibliogr. Index. 68s.

M C P H E R S O N , James M . The struggle for equality. Abolitionists and the negro in the Civil War and reconstruction. Princeton (N.J.), Princeton University Press (1964). 24 c m . , xii + 474 p. Bibliogr. Index. $10.

M O N Z , Heinz. Karl Marx und Trier. Verhältnisse, Beziehungen, Einflüsse. Trier, N e u , 1964. 24 c m . , 222 p., pi., facsim., m a p . , tabl. Bibliogr. Index. (Schriftenreihe zur Trierischen Landesgeschichte und Volkskunde. Bd . 12.)

Ocerki istorii matematiki i mehaniki. (Sbornik statej). Moskva, Izdatelstvo Akademii nauk S S S R , 1963. 22 c m . , 272 p. (Akademija nauk S S S R . Institut istorii estestvoznanija i tehniki.)

R Y B I C K I , Pawel. Arystoteles. Poczatki i podstawy nauki o spoleczeñstwie. Wroclaw Zaklad narodowy imienia ossoliñskich Wydawnictwo Polskiej akademii nauk, 1963. 24 cm. , 330 p. Index. (Polskiej Akademii Nauk . Zaklad historii nauki i techniki.)

S T E I N , Lorenz von. The history of the social movement in France, iy8g-i8$o. Introduced, edited and translated by Kaethe Mengelberg. Totowa (N.J.), The Bedminster Press, 1964. 24 c m . , 467 p., port. Bibliogr. Index.

Economics

A F G H A N I S T A N . M I N I S T R Y O F P L A N N I N G . Department of Statistics and Research. Survey of progress, ig6s-64. Kabul, 1964. 24 c m . , viii + 152 p., tabl.

A L I B E R , Robert Z . The management of the dollar in international finance. Princeton (N.J.), Princeton University, 1964. 23 c m . , 61 p., tabl. $1. (Princeton studies in international finance, 13.)

B R O W N , Weir M . The external liquidity of an advanced country. Princeton, Princeton University, 1964. 23 c m . , 70 p., fig., tabl. $1. (Princeton studies in international finance, 14.)

C O M M U N A U T É E U R O P É E N N E D U C H A R B O N E T D E L ' A C I E R . Haute Autorité. L'Europe et l'énergie. Luxembourg (Service des publications des Communautés européennes), 1964. 21 c m . , 46 p., fig., tabl.

Coopération. Édition revue et mise á jour. Genève, B I T , 1964. 29 c m . , 102 p. Bibliogr. Index. (Bureau international du travail. Bibliothèque. Contributions bibliographiques. 23.)

Cooperativas (Las) como método de desarrollo de regiones y comunidades. Washington, Unión panamericana, 1964. 21 c m . , iv + 107 p. , m a p . , tabl. $1. (Estudios y monografías. 14.)

F I R T H , R a y m o n d ; Y A M E Y , B . S. eds. Capital, saving and credit in peasant societies. Studies from Asia, Oceania, the Caribbean and Middle America. Essays edited with two general essays by R a y m o n d Firth and B . S. Y a m e y . London, G . Allen and U n w i n , 1964. 22 c m . , 400 p., tabl. Bibliogr. Index. 45s.

G E I G E R , Theodore; A R M S T R O N G , Winifred. The development of African private enterprise.

Books received 385

A report. Washington, National Planning Association, 1964. 23 c m . , x + 158 p. , tab]., m a p . $2.50. (Planning pamphlet. 120.)

G H A U S S Y , A . Ghanie. Das Genossenschaftswesen in den Entwicklungsländern. Freiburg, R o m -bach, 1964. 23 c m . , 341 p. Bibliogr. Index. (Beitrage zur Wirtschaftspolitik, B d . 2.)

International monetary arrangements: the problem of choice. Report of the deliberations of an international study group of thirty-two economists. Princeton (N.J.) , Princeton University, 1964. 22 c m . , 121 p. $1. (Princeton University. Department of economics. International finance section.)

J A F F E , A . J.; D A Y , Lincoln H . ; A D A M S , Walter. Disabled workers in the labor market. Totowa (N.J.), T h e Bedminster Press, 1964. 22 c m . , xvi + 191 p., fig., facsim., tabl. (Columbia University. Bureau of applied social research. Vocational Rehabilitation Administration of the United States Department of Health, Education and Welfare.)

M A D A N , B . K . Aspects of economic development and policy. B o m b a y , N e w Delhi, Calcutta, Allied Publishers Private, 1964. 23 c m . , xxiv + 363 p., tabl. Index.

Manpower report of the President and a report on manpower requirements, resources, utilization and training by the United States Department of Labor, transmitted to the Congress, March 1964. Washington, U . S . Government Printing Office, 1964. 26 c m . , xxvi + 279 p. , fig., tabl. $1.50.

Manpower research and training (Report of the Secretary of Labor on), in accordance with section 309 of the M a n p o w e r Development and Training Act, transmitted to Congress, M a r c h 1964. Washington, U . S . Government Printing Office, 1964. 26 c m . , 193 p. , fig., tabl. $1.25.

New directions for world trade. Report of a conference organized by the Royal Institute of International Affairs, Bellagio, 16-24 September 1963. London, Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1963. 26 c m . , various paginations, tabl. (Chatham House Conference.)

P A L E R M , Angel. Observaciones sobre el desarrollo agrario en Israel. Washington, Unión panamericana, 1964. 21 c m . , viii + 94 p. $0.50 (Estudios y monografías. 13.)

Régimen (El) de acción concertada en el plan de desarrollo. Madrid, Consejo económico sindical nacional, 1964. 23 c m . , 46 p . (Organización sindical española. Consejo económico sindical nacional.)

S E T I N S K Y , Jiri. Teorie krizí v ceskoslovensku. Praha, Státní pedagogické naklada-telstvi v praze, 1964. 25 c m . , 196 p. (Opera Universitatis Purkynianae Brunensis. Facultas philosophica. 96.)

Some data concerning the Hungarian co-operative movement. (Compiled by Pal Cerula, Akos Sebók, Béla Vasko, György Véróczey). Budapest, Hungarian Co-operative Research, 1964. 29 c m . , no paginations, fig., tabl. (Hungarian Co-operative Research Institute.)

S T E R N , Robert M . Policies for trade and development. N e w York, Carnegie E n d o w m e n t for International Peace, 1964. 20 c m . , 63 p . , 50 cents. (International Conciliation. 548. M a y 1964.)

T R I F F I N , Robert. The evolution of the international monetary system: historical reappraisal and future perspectives. Princeton (N.J.), Princeton University, 1964. 23 c m . , 83 p . , tabl. $1. (Princeton studies in international finance, 12.)

V I N E R , Jacob. Problems of monetary control. Princeton (N.J.), Princeton University, 1964. 23 c m . , 58 p. (Essays in international finance. 45.)

W E I T Z , R a a n a n ; N E V O , N a o m i (eds.). The Rehovoth conference on comprehensive planning of agriculture in developing countries. Rehovoth, 19-29 August 1963. Rehovoth (Israel), 1963. 27 c m . , no pagination, pi. (Continuation Committee of the International Conference on Science in the Advancement of N e w States.)

Political science

A R C O S , Juan. El sindicalismo en América latina. Friburgo, Bogotá, Oficina internacional de investigaciones sociales de Feres; Santiago de Chile, Centro de investigaciones

386 T h e world of the social sciences

y acción social, 1964. 21 c m . , 192 p . Bibliogr. (Estudios sociológicos latinoamericanos. 12.)

C O L E M A N , James S.; R O S B E R G , Carl. G . , Jr. (eds.). Political parties and national integration in tropical Africa. Berkeley, Los Angeles, University of California Press, 1964. 24 c m . , xiv + 730 p . , fig., m a p , tabl. Bibliogr. Index. $10.

D U R O S E L L E , Jean-Baptiste; M E Y R I A T , Jean (eds.). Politiques nationales envers les jeunes États. Paris, Colin, 1964. 24 c m . , 347 p. , tabl. Index. 22 F . (Cahiers de la Fondation nationale des sciences politiques. Relations internationales, 131.)

E D E L M A N , M u r r a y . The symbolic uses of politics. U r b a n a , University of Illinois Press, 1964. 24 c m . , 201 p. Index. $5.

E T Z I O N I , Amitai. Les chemins de la paix. Vers une nouvelle stratégie [The hard w a y to peace]. Translation and preface by Robert Gubbels. Études de science politique. Bruxelles, Institut de Sociologie, 1964. 24 c m . , xxxiv + 250 p . 250 Belgian francs. (Université libre de Bruxelles. Institut de sociologie Solvay.)

F A R I N E , Philippe. L'Europe en devenir. Preface by Maurice Byé. Paris, Éditions d u Centurion, 1964. 18 c m . , 176 p . , fig., pi., m a p s , tabl. (Institut Culture et P r o m o tion. Faits sociaux, faits humains.)

F R E I T A S M A R C O N D E S , J. V . Radiografió da liderança sindical paulista. Säo Paulo, Instituto cultural do trabalho, 1964. 23 c m . , 89 p . , tabl. (Monografías trabal-histas, 2.)

G E I G E R , Theodore; S O L O M O N , L e o (eds.). Motivations and methods in development and foreign aid. Proceedings of the sixth world conference of the Society for International Development, 16-18 M a r c h 1964, Washington D . C . Washington, Society for International Development, 1964. 23 c m . , ix + 152 p .

G O L D E N B E R G , Boris. Gewerkschaften in Lateinamerika. Hannover, Verlag für Literatur und Zeitgeschelen, 1964. 24 c m . , 197 p . Bibliogr. (Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. Forschungsinstitut. Schriftenreihe. A . Sozialwissenschaftliche Schriften.)

K O R B O N S K I , Andrzej. Comecon. N e w York, Carnegie E n d o w m e n t for International Peace, 1964. 20 c m . , 62 p . (International Conciliation, 549. September 1964.)

L A P A L O M B A R A , Joseph. Interest groups in Italian politics. Princeton (N.J.) , Princeton University Press, 1964. 22 c m . , xvi + 452 p . Bibliogr. Index. $8.50.

L I T T L E , I. M . D . Aid to Africa. An appraisal of U.K. policy for aid to Africa South of the Sahara. Oxford, Pergamon Press; N e w York, Macmillan; 1964. 20 c m . , xii + 76 p . 7s. 6d. (Commonwea l th and international library of science, technology, engineering and liberal studies. Overseas Development Institute.)

M E N E G A Z Z I , Guido. I fondamenti del solidarismo. Milano, A . Giuffrè, 1964. 25 c m . , 506 p . L4,ooo.

M O R G A N , D . J. Aid to the West Indies. A survey of attitudes and needs. L o n d o n , Overseas Development Institute, 1964. 22 c m . , 56 p. , tabl. 8s. 6d. (Overseas Development Institute.)

Psychiatric aspects of the prevention of nuclear war, formulated by the Committee on social issues. N e w York, G r o u p for the Advancement of Psychiatry, 1964. 23 c m . , p . 217-317. Bibliogr. (Group for the Advancement of Psychiatry. V o l u m e 5. Report 57.)

S C O T T , Robert E . Mexican government in transition. Revised edition. U r b a n a , University of Illinois Press, 1964. 21 c m . , 345 p . , m a p s . Bibliogr. Index. $2.25. (Illini Books, IB-20.)

S I E G F R I E D , André . Tableau politique de la France de V Ouest sous la IIIe République. 2nd ed. Paris, A . Colin, 1964. 24 c m . , xxviii + 536 p . , fig., m a p , tabl. (Science» politiques.)

Syndicats (Les) dans les pays de l'Est. Journées d'étude, 19-21 novembre ig6s. (Bruxelles, Éditions de l'Institut de sociologie de l'Université de Bruxelles, 1963.) 24 c m . , 97 P- '35 Belgian francs. (Université libre de Bruxelles. Institut de sociologie. Centre d'étude des pays de l'Est. Centre national pour l'étude des États de l'Est.)

Technical assistance. A factual survey of Britain's aid to overseas development through technical

Books received 387

assistance. London, Overseas Development Institute, 1964. 22 c m . , ig6 p., tabl. Index. 7s. 6d. (Overseas Development Institute. British Aid. 4.)

V A S A K , Karel. La Convention européenne des droits de l'homme. Foreword by René Cassin. (Paris, Librairie générale de droit et de jurisprudence, 1964). 25 c m . , x + 328 p. Bibliogr. Index. F42.90. (Bibliothèque constitutionnelle et de science politique, 10.)

W E I D N E R , Edward W . Technical assistance in public administration overseas: T h e case for development administration. Chicago, Public Administration Service, 1964. 24 c m . , xii + 247 p. Index.

W H I T E , John. Japanese aid. London, Overseas Development Institute, 1964. 22 c m . , 80 p., tabl.

Anthropology

B R O A D B E N T , Sylvia M . Los Chibchas. Organización socio-política. (Bogotá, Impr. nacional, 1964. 20 c m . , 131 p. Bibliogr. (Universidad nacional de Colombia. Facultad de sociología. Serie latinoamericana. 5.)

B U C K L E Y , Helen; K E W , J. E . ; H A W L E Y , John B . The Indians and metis of Northern Saskatchewan. A report on economic and social development. Saskatoon, Centre for Communi ty Studies, 1963. 28 c m . , 114 p. , fig., pi., m a p , tabl. Bibliogr.

C O N K L I N , Harold C . El estudio del cultivo de roza. The study of shifting cultivation. Washington, Unión panamericana, 1963. 21 c m . , iii + 31 + 185 p. fig. Bibliogr. $1.50. (Estudios y monografías, 11. Studies and monographs, 6.)

E S C A L A N T E , Aquiles. El Negro en Colombia. Bogotá, Facultad de sociología, 1964. 25 c m . , 196 p. , m a p . Bibliogr. (Universidad nacional de Colombia. Facultad de sociología. Monografías sociológicas, 18.)

F O R D , James A . Método para establecer cronologías culturales. Washington, Unión panamericana, 1962. 22 c m . , x + 122 p. , fig., maps. Bibliogr. $1. (Manuales técnicos, 3.)

G E N O V É S , T . (Santiago); C O M A S , Juan. La antropología física en México, 1943-1964. Inventario bibliográfico. (Contribución a la XXXIII sesión de la American Association of Physical Anthropologists, 22-24 de junio de 1964, México.) México, Universidad nacional autónoma de México, 1964. 24 c m . , 57 p . Index. (Cuadernos del Instituto de investigaciones históricas. Serie antropológica 17. Instituto de investigaciones históricas. Primera serie, 91.)

H O L A S , B . Organisations socio-religieuses en Afrique noire. Paris, Dakar, Institut Français d'Afrique Noire, 1964. 24 c m . , p. 40-70, fig. (Bulletin de P I F A N , vol. 26, ser. B . , no. 1-2, 1964.)

H O L A S , B . Sculpture Sénoufo. Limoges, Impr. A . Bontemps, 1964. 24 c m . , 24 p. , pi. Bibliogr. (République de la Côte d'Ivoire. Ministère de l'éducation nationale. Centre des sciences humaines.)

M A C E D A , Marcelino N . The culture of the Mamanua (Northeast Mindanao). As compared with that of the other negritos of Southeast Asia. Manila, Catholic Trade School, 1964. 23 c m . , viii + 148 p. Bibliogr. Index. (San Carlos publications. Series A : Humanities, 1.)

M A N N E R S , Robert A . Process and pattern in culture. Essays in honor of Julian H. Steward. Chicago, Aldine, 1964. 24 c m . , xii + 434 p. , fig., portr., maps , tabl. Bibliogr. Index. $8.75. (The Research Institute for the Study of M a n . )

M E A D , Margaret. Continuities in cultural evolution. N e w Haven, London, Yale University Press, 1964. 21 c m . , xxiv + 471 p. , pi. Bibliogr. Index. 63s. (The Terry Lectures.)

O L I V E I R A , Roberto Cardoso de. O Indio e 0 mundo dos bramos. A situaçâo dos Tukûna do alto Solimôes. Sào Paulo, Difusâo européia do livro, 1964. 21 c m . , 144 p., pi. Bibliogr. (Corpo e alma do Brasil.)

R I T C H I E , James E . (ed.). Race relations. Six New Zealand studies. Wellington, Victoria University, 1964. 20 c m . , ii + 99 p., fig., tabl. Bibliogr. (Publications in psychology, 16.)

388 T h e world of the social sciences

V A U G H A N , G r a h a m M . Ethnic awareness and attitudes in New Zealand. Wellington, Victoria University, 1964. 20 c m . , 63 p . , fig., tabl. Bibliogr. (Publications in psychology, 17.)

Sociology

A L L W O O D , Martin. Toward a new sociology. Essays and studies. M o u n t Pleasant (Iowa), T h e N e w Prairie, 1964. 22 c m . , 150 p . , fig. Index. (Iowa Wesleyan College. Mullsjö (Sweden), Institute of social research.)

A N D E R S O N , Walfred A . ; P A R K E R , Frederick B . Society. Its organization and operation. Princeton (N.J.), D . V a n Nostrand (1964). 25 c m . , xvi + 446 p . , fig., carte. Bibliogr. Index. 62s.

A V I L A , Fernando Bastos de, S.J. La immigración en América latina. Washington, Unión panamericana, 1964. 21 c m . , xvi + 460 p . , tabl. [Bibliogr. (Revista interamericana de ciencias sociales. Vol. 3, no. especial, 1964.)

B L A U N E R , Robert. Alienation and freedom. The factory worker and his industry. Chicago, London , University of Chicago Press (1964). 24 c m . , xvi + 222 p . , pi., tabl. Index. $7.50.

B U L L O U G H , Vern L . ; B U L L O U G H , Bonnie L . The history of prostitution. N e w York, University Books, 1964. 24 c m . , x + 304 p . Index. $7.50.

Causes (Les) et la prévention du crime dans les pays en développement ¡The causation and prevention of crime in developing countries. Vol. III. International symposium. Actes du douzième cours international de criminologie, Université hébraïque de Jérusalem, September z-20, 1962. Jerusalem, T h e H e b r e w University of Jerusalem, 1963. 24 c m . , p . 125-364. (Hebrew University of Jerusalem. Publication of the Institute of Criminology, 6. Reprinted from the Israel annals of psychiatry and related disciplines, vol. 1, no. 1, April 1963; vol. 1, no. 2 , October 1963.)

C H O M B A R T D E L A U W E , Paul-Henri. Les citadins et la ville. Recherche sur l'évolution des besoins et des relations sociales. Quelques conséquences pratiques. Paris, 1962. 27 c m . , 58 p . processed. Bibliogr.

Constructing an index of delinquency. A manual. Philadelphia, Center of Criminological Research, 1963. 26 c m . , 16 p . , tabl. (University of Pennsylvania. Center of Criminological Research.)

C O R N I S H , M a r y Jean; R U D E R M A N , Florence A . ; S P I V A C K , Sydney S. Doctors and family planning. N e w York, National Committee on Maternal Health, 1963. 24 c m . , 100 p . , tabl. $2. (Publication 19.)

D E L L E V A U X , A b b é R a y m o n d . Les jeunes et notre temps. Bruxelles, Editions L a lecture au foyer, 1964. 21 c m . , 43 p . (Cahiers Saint-Capistran.)

D E Y , S. K . Community development. A bird's-eye view. London, Asia Publishing House, 1964. 21 c m . , xii + 104 p . Bibliogr. Index. 18s.

E S P Í R I T U , Socorro C ; H U N T , Chester L . Social foundations of community development. Readings on the Philippines. Manila, R . M . Garcia, 1964. 24 c m . , xii + 684 p . , tabl. Index.

G L O B E T T I , Gerald. A survey of teenage drinking in two Mississippi communities. Mississippi, Mississippi State University, 1964. 28 c m . , vi + 52 p . , tabl. Bibliogr. (Preliminary report no. 3. Social Science Research Center.)

H O U T A R T , Francisco. El cambio social en América latina. Bruselas, Bogotá. Oficina internacional de investigaciones; Bruselas, Centro de investigaciones socio-religiosas, 1964. 22 c m . , 187 p . , m a p , tabl. (Estudios sociológicos latino-americanos, 18.)

Integration (U) du citadin à sa ville et à son quartier. Montrouge, Centre d'études des groupes sociaux, 1961. 28 c m . (Recherches sur l'évolution de la vie sociale en milieu urbain. A n n é e 1961). Fase. I. Les équipements. 167 p . , processed., fig., tabl. Fase. II. Les relations sociales et les catégories socio-professionnelles. L e quartier et la ville. 186 p. , processed, fig., tabl.

Introduction to a social worker. London, G . Allen and U n w i n , 1964. 19 c m . , 106 p . 15s. (National Institute for Social W o r k Training, Series 2.)

Books received 389

K V A R A C E U S , William C . La délinquance juvénile. Problèmes d u m o n d e moderne. Paris, Unesco, 1964. 21 c m . , 91 p. , pi.

K V A R A C E U S , William C . Juvenile delinquency. A problem for the modern world. Paris, Unesco, 1964. 21 c m . , 85 p . , pi.

L E D E R E R , Jean. Problèmes sociaux de l'alimentation. Louvain, Nauwelaerts; Paris, Béatrice-Nauwelaerts, 1964. 25 c m . , 152 p . , tabl. 16.20 F .

M A T T E L A R T , A r m a n d . Manual de análisis demográfico. Un ejemplo de investigación en un país latino-americano. Chile. Santiago de Chile, Centro de investigaciones sociológicas, 1964. 25 ¡cm., xxii + 626 p . , fig., maps , tabl. Biblíogr. (Universidad católica de Chile. Centro de investigaciones sociológicas. Centro para el desarrollo económico y social de América latina ( D E S A L ) . )

M E Z I R O W , Jack D . Dynamics of community development. N e w York, Scarecrow Press, 1963. 22 c m . , 252 p . Index. $5.50.

M I C H E L , Andrée; T E X I E R , Geneviève. La condition de la Française d'aujourd'hui. IL Les groupes de pression, perspectives nouvelles. Genève, Gonthier, 1964. 18 c m . , 244 p. , tabl. Bibliogr. 5.85 F . (Collection F e m m e , 2.)

P A G A N I , Angelo. La formazione dell'imprenditorialità. Milano, Edizioni di Comunità, 1964. 23 c m . , 352 p . Bibliogr. L,3,ooo (Studi e ricerche di scienze sociali, 22.)

P É R E Z R A M I R E Z , Gustavo; L A B E L L E , Y v á n . El problema sacerdotal en América latina. ( Centroamérica, Antillas Mayores, Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay). Friburgo, Bogotá, Oficina internacional de investigaciones sociales de Feres; Bogota, Centro de investigaciones sociales, Departamento socio-religioso, 1964. 22 c m . , 148 p. , tabl., tabl. h.t. (Estudios socio-reliogosos latino-americanos, 16.)

P R E S T H U S , Robert. Men at the top. A study in community power. With a chapter by L . V a u g h n Blankenship. N e w York, Oxford University Press, 1964. 21 c m . , x + 485 p. , tabl. Index. $8.50.

S E L L I N , Thorsten; W O L F G A N G , Marvin E . The measurement of delinquency. N e w York, London, Sydney, J. Wiley, 1964. 24 c m . , xii + 423 p . , fig., tabl. Index. 68s.

S I M P S O N , Richard L . ; S I M P S O N , Ida Harper (eds.). Social organization and behavior. A reader in general sociology. N e w York, London , Sydney, J. Wiley, 1964. 26 c m . , xii + 457 p. , fig., tabl. 40s.

SUSINI , Jean. Secrets de la drogue. Paris, Hachette, 1964. 20 c m . , 240 p. , tabl. 11.67 F . (Les grands problèmes.)

T E C , N e c h a m a . Gambling in Sweden. Totowa, T h e Bedminster Press, 1964. 22 c m . , xvi + 141 p . , tabl. Bibliogr. Index. $5.

T H E R Y , Henri. Les groupes sociaux: forces vives. La participation et ses exigences. Preface by R e n é Rémtond. Published with the assistance of René Benjamin. Paris, Éditions d u Centurion, 1964. 18 c m . , 223 p. , fig. 12.35 F- (Institut Culture et Promotion. Faits sociaux, faits humains.)

T O B Y , Jackson. Contemporary society. Social process and social structure in urban industrial society. N e w York, London, Sydney, J. Wiley and Sons, 1964. 26 c m . , xviii + 598 P-, fig., tabl. Index. 62s.

ViDicH, Arthur J.; B E N S M A N , Joseph; S T E I N , Maurice R . Reflections on community studies. N e w York, London, Sydney, J. Wiley and Sons, 1964. 24 c m . , xvi + 359 p . Index. 57s.

W E I L L - H A L L E , Lagroua. La grand'peur d'aimer. Journal d'une femme médecin. Preface by Simone de Beauvoir. Geneva, Gonthier, 1964. 18 c m . , 201 p . Bibliogr. 4.95 F . (Collection F e m m e , 4.)

W I E S E , Leopold von. Der Mensch als Mitmensch. Bern, M ü n c h e n , Francke (1964). 18 c m . , 92 p . (Dalp-Taschenbücher, B d . 374.)

W I L D A V S K Y , Aaron. Leadership in a small town. Totowa (N.J.), T h e Bedminster Press, 1964. 21 c m . , xii + 388 p . Index. $7.50.

W I L L E M S , Emilio. El cambio cultural dirigido. Bogotá, Impr. nacional, 1963. 20 c m . , 82 p . Bibliogr. (Universidad nacional de Colombia. Facultad de sociología. Serie latino-americana, 4.)

390 T h e world of the social sciences

W I L L E T T , T . C . Criminal on the road. A study of serious motoring offences and those who commit them. With a foreword by H e r m a n n M a n n h e i m . London, Tavistock Publications, 1964. 22 c m . , xii + 343 p., fig., tabl. Bibliogr. Index. 42s. (Institute for the Study and Treatment of Delinquency. International Library of Criminology. Delinquency and deviant social behaviour, 12.)

Y O U N G H U S B A N D , Eileen. Social work and social change. London, G . Allen and U n w i n , 1964. 22 c m . , 167 p. (National Institute for Social W o r k Training, Series, 1.)

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Sommaire du tome VI, n° 21 (janvier-mars 1965).

Science, technique et développement

Articles E. Maria BEE D A G U M : L'inflation structurelle en Amérique latine. Jef RENS : Le programme des Indiens des Andes. Jacques LAMBERT : Contribution de l'expérience latino-américaine à une théorie du développement politique après la colonisation. Pierre G E O R G E : L'approche géographique du sous-développement. J. P. PAL E W S Kl : Les contradictions de l'aide aux pays en voie de développement. Alexandre N O W I C K I : Techniques de projection (contribution a la programmation économique des pays en voie de développement). Paul LEMERLE : L'expérience française du Plan peut-elle servir aux pays qui veulent se développer ? Jean P O N C E T : Tunisie, de la dévaluation aux réformes. Assane SECK : Introduction à l'étude des villes tropicales.

Documentation Anouar ABDEL M A L E K : Problèmes de l'édification nationale dans les pays du Proche-Orient arabe. Nasser P A K D A M A N : Étude critique du recensement général de l'Iran (1956). Réponse de A . T IANO aux critiques de la Banque nationale du développement économique du Maroc (Tiers-Monde, tome IV, n° 16). Alain B O U C : Les conférences sur l'harmonisation des programmes industriels dans l'Afrique de l'Ouest (Niamey, 5-7 juillet 1962 et 31 janvier-2 février 1963; Lagos, 20-30 novembre 1963; Bamako, 5-15 octobre 1964). Robert BADOUIN : Les banques de développement en Afrique noire francophone. Bibliographie.

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Edgar Morin Le droit à la réflexion Jan Szczepanski Changements dans la structure de la

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Changing family composition and the aged in the Japanese family Social structure and entrepreneurship

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Growth of Population in Madras City, 1639-1961

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Growth and structural change in Pakistan's manufacturing industry, 1954. to 1064

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Interim report of the National Income Commission, September 1964

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S. K U Z N E T S , Note sur certaines conséquences des inégalités de la répartition des revenus.

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C O N G O : La Librairie, Institut politique congolais, B.P . 2307, L É O P O L D V I L L E .

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C U B A : Cubartimpex, Lamparilla 2, apartado 1764, L A H A B A N A .

CYPRUS: ' M A M ' , Archbishop Makarios 3rd Avenue, P.O.B. 1722, NICOSIA.

CZECHOSLOVAKIA: SNTL, Spalena 51, PRAHA I {Permanent display); Zahranîcni literatura, Bilkova 4, P R A H A I.

D E N M A R K : Ejnar Munksgaard Ltd., Prags Boulevard 47, K O B E N H A V N S.

D O M I N I C A N R E P U B L I C : Librería Dominicana, Mercedes 49, apartado de correos 656, S A N T O D O M I N G O .

E C U A D O R : Casa de la Cultura Ecuatoriana, Núcleo del Guayas, Pedro Moncayo y 9 de Octubre, casilla de correo 3542, G U A Y A Q U I L .

E L S A L V A D O R : Librería Cultural Salvadoreña, Edificio San Martin, 6.» calle Oriente n.° 118, S A N S A L V A D O R .

ETHIOPIA: International Press Agency, P . O . Box iao, A D D I S A B A B A .

F I N L A N D : Akateeminen Kirjakauppa, 2 Keskuskatu, H E L S I N K I .

F R A N C E : Librairie de l'Unesco, place de Fontenoy, PARIS-7*. C C P 12598-48.

F R E N C H W E S T INDIES: Librairie J. Bocage, rue Lavoir, B .P . 208, F O R T - D E - F R A N C E (Martinique).

G E R M A N Y (FED. R E P . ) : R . Oldenbourg Verlag, Unesco-Vertrieb für Deutschland, Rosenheimer-strasse 145, M Ü N C H E N 8.

G H A N A : Methodist Book Depot Ltd., Atlantis House, Commercial Street, P . O . Box 100, C A P E C O A S T .

G R E E C E : Librairie H . Kauffmann, 28, rue du Stade. A T H È N E S .

G U A T E M A L A : Comisión Nacional de la Unesco, 6.* calle 9.27, zona x, G U A T E M A L A .

HAITI: Librairie 'A la Caravelle', 36, rue Roux, B.P. in, P O R T - A U - P R I N C E .

H O N D U R A S : Librería Cultura, apartado postal 568, T E G U C I G A L P A D . C.

H O N G K O N G : Swindon Book Co., 64 Nathan Road, KOWLOON.

H U N G A R Y : Kultura, P . O . Box 149, B U D A P E S T 62.

I C E L A N D : Snaebjörn Jonsson & Co., H . F . , Hafnar-straeti 9, R E Y K J A V I K .

INDIA: Orient Longmans Ltd.: 17 Chittaranjan Ave., C A L C U T T A 13; Nicol Road, Ballard Estate, B O M B A Y I; Gunfoundry Road, H Y D E R A B A D I; 36A Mount Road, M A D R A S 2; Kanson House, 1/24 Asaf Ali Road, N E W D E L H I I. Sub-depots : Indian National Commission for Cooperation with Unesco, Ministry of Education, N E W D E L H I 3; Oxford Book and Stationery Co., 17 Park Street, C A L C U T T A 16, and Scindia House, N E W D E L H I .

INDONESIA: P. N . Fadjar Bhakti, Djalan Nusantara 22, D J A K A R T A .

IRAN: Commission nationale iranienne pour l'Unesco, avenue du Musée, T É H É R A N .

IRAQ: McKenzie's Bookshop, Al-Rashid Street,

B A G H D A D .

I R E L A N D : The National Press, 2 Wellington Road, Ballsbridge, D U B L I N .

ISRAEL: Blumstein's Bookstores, 35 Allenby Road and 48 Nahlat Benjamin Street, T E L A V I V .

ITALY: Libreria Commissionaria Sansoni S.p.A., via Lamarmora 45, casella postale 552, F I R E N Z E ; Libreria Internazionale Rizzoli, Largo Chighi, R O M A ; Libreria Zanichelli, Portici del Pavaglione, B O L O G N A ; Hoepli, via Ulrico Hoepli 5, M I L A N O ; Librairie française, piazza Castello 9, T O R I N O .

I V O R Y C O A S T : Centre d'édition et de diffusion africaines, boîte postale 4541, A B I D J A N P L A T E A U .

J A M A I C A : Sangster's Book Room, 91 Harbour Street, K I N G S T O N .

J A P A N : Maruzen Co. Ltd., 6 Tori-Nichome, Nihonbashi. P.O. Box 605, Tokyo Central, T O K Y O .

J O R D A N : Joseph L Bahous & Co., Dar-ul-Kutub, Salt Road. P . O . Box 66, A M M A N .

K E N Y A : E S A Bookshop, P . O . Box 30167, N A I R O B I .

K O R E A : Korean National Commission for Unesco, P . O . Box Central 64, S E O U L .

L E B A N O N : Librairie Dar Al-Maaref Liban, S.A.L. immeuble Esseily, 3e étage, place Riad El-Solh, B . P 2320, B E Y R O U T H .

LIBERIA: Cola & Yancy Bookshops Ltd., P . O . Box 286, M O N R O V I A .

LIBYA: Orient Bookshop, P . O . Box 255. TRIPOLI.

L I E C H T E N S T E I N : Eurocan Trust Reg., P . O . B . 124. SCHAAN.

L U X E M B O U R G : Librairie Paul Brack 22 Grand-Rue, L U X E M B O U R G .

MADAGASCAR: Commission nationale de la République malgache, Ministère de l'éducation nationale, T A N A N A R I V E . For 'The Courier' only: Service des œuvres post et pari-scolaires, Ministère de l'éducation nationale, T A N A N A R I V E .

M A L A Y S I A : Federal Publications Ltd., Times House, River Valley Road, S I N G A P O R E . Pudu Building (3rd floor), n o Jalan Pudu, K U A L A L U M P U R .

M A L T A : Sapienza's Library, 26 Kingsway, V A L L E T T A .

M A U R I T I U S : Nalanda Co. Ltd., 30 Bourbon Street, P O R T - L O U I S .

M E X I C O : Editorial Hermes, Ignacio Marisca 41, M E X I C O D . F .

M O N A C O : British Library, 30, boulevard des Moulins, M O N T E - C A R L O .

M O R O C C O : Librairie 'Aux belles images', 281, avenue Mohammed V, R A B A T (CCP 68-74). For 'The Courier' (for teachers) only: Commission nationale marocaine pour l'Unesco, 20, Zenkat Mourabitine, R A B A T . (CCP 307-63).

M O Z A M B I Q U E : Salema and Carvalho Ltda., caixa

postal 192, B E I R A .

N E T H E R L A N D S : N . V . Martinus Nijhofi, Lange

Voorhout 9, ' S - G R A V E N H A G B .

N E T H E R L A N D S A N T I L L E S : G . C. T . Van Dorp and Co. (Ned. Ant.) N . V . , W I L L E M S T A D (Curaçao,

N . A . ) .

N E W C A L E D O N I A : Reprex, avenue de la Victoire,

Immeuble Painbouc, N O U M E A .

N E W Z E A L A N D : Government Printing Office, 20 Molesworth Street (Private Bag), W E L L I N G T O N ; Government Bookshops: A U C K L A N D (P.O. Box 5344); C H R I S T C H U R C H (P.O. Box 1721); D U N E D I N (P.O.

Box 1104).

N I C A R A G U A : Librería Cultural Nicaragüense, calle 15 de Septiembre y avenida Bolivar, apartado n.° 807, M A N A G U A .

NIGERIA: CMS (Nigeria) Bookshops, P.O. Box 174, LAGOS.

N O R W A Y : A.S. Bokhjornet, Lille Grensen 7, OSLO. For 'The Courier' only: A .S . Narvesens Litteratur-

Jeneste, Stortingsgt, 2, Postboks 115, O S L O .

P A K I S T A N : The West-Pak [Publishing Co. Ltd., Unesco Publications House, P . O . Box 374, 56-N

Gulberg Industrial Colony, L A H O R E .

P A R A G U A Y : Agencia de Librerías de Salvador Nizza, Yegros, entre 23 de Mayo y Meal. Estigarribia, AsuNCión; Albo Industrial Comercial S.A., Sección

Librería, Gral. Díaz 327, A S U N C I Ó N .

P E R U : Distribuidora INCA S.A., Emilio Altahus 460

Lince, L I M A .

PHILIPPINES: The Modern Book Co., 308 Riza Avenue, M A N I L A . U N E S C O

P O L A N D : Osrodek, Rozpowszechniania Wydawnictw Naukowycb P A N , Palac Kultury i Nauki, W A R S Z A W A .

P O R T U G A L : Dias & Andra de Lda., Livraria Portugal, rua do Carmo 70, LISBOA.

P U E R T O RICO: Spanish English Publications, Eleanor Roosevelt 115, apartado 1912, H A T O R E Y .

S O U T H E R N R H O D E S I A : The Book Centre, Gordon Avenue, S A L I S B U R Y .

R U M A N I A : Cartimex, Str. Aristide Briand 14-18, P . O . Box 134-135, B U C U R E S T I .

S E N E G A L : La Maison du livre, 13, avenue Roume, D A K A R .

S I N G A P O R E : See Malaysia.

S O U T H A F R I C A : Van Schalk's Bookstore (Pty) Ltd., Libri Building, Church Street, P . O . Box 724, P R E TORIA.

SPAIN: Librería Científica Medinaceli, Duque de Medinaceli 4, M A D R I D 14. For 'The Courier' only: Ediciones Iberoamericanas S.A., calle de Oflate 15, M A D R I D .

S U D A N : Al Bashir BLokshop, P . O . Box 1118. K H A R -TOUU.

SWEDEN: A/B C. E. Fritzes Kungl. Hovbokhandel, Fredsgatan 2, STOCKHOLM 16. FOT 'The Courier' only: Svenska Unescorädet, Vasa-gatan 15-17, S T O C K H O L M C.

S W I T Z E R L A N D : Europa Verlag, Rämistrasse j, Z Ü R I C H ; Librairie Payot, 6, rue Grenus, 1211, G E N È V E I I.

SYRIA: Librairie internationale Avicenne, boite postale

2456, D A M A S .

T A N G A N Y I K A : Dar es Salaam Bookshop, P . O . Box 9030, D A R E S S A L A A M .

T H A I L A N D : Suksapan Panit, Mansion 9, Rajdamnern Avenue, B A N G K O K .

TUNISIA: Société tunisienne de diffusion, 5, avenue de Carthage, T U N I S .

T U R K E Y : Librairie Hachette, 469 Istiklal Caddesi, Beyoglu, I S T A N B U L .

U G A N D A : Uganda Bookshop, P . O . Box 143, K A M P A L A .

U N I T E D A R A B R E P U B L I C : Librairie Kasr El NU, 38, rue Kasr El Nil, C A I R O . Sub-depot: La Renaissance d'Egypte, 9 Sh. Adly Pasha, C A I R O (Egypt).

U N I T E D K I N G D O M : H . M . Stationery Office, P .O. Box 569, L O N D O N , S.E.z; Government bookshops: London, Belfast, Birmingham, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Manchester.

U N I T E D S T A T E S O F A M E R I C A : Unesco Publications Center (NAIP), 317 East 34th St, N E W Y O R K , N . Y . 10016.

U R U G U A Y : Representación de Editoriales, plaza Cagancha 1342, 1." piso, M O N T E V I D E O .

U.S.S.R.: Mezhdunarodnaja Kniga, M O S K V A G-200.

V E N E Z U E L A : Librería Politécnica, calle Villaflor, local A , al lado General Electric, Sabana Grande, C A R A C A S ; Librería Cruz del Sur, Centro Comercial del Este, local n , apartado 10223, Sabana Grande, C A R A C A S ; Oficina Publicaciones de la Unesco, Gobernador a Candilito n.° 37, apartado postal n.0 8092, C A R A C A S ; Librería Selecta, avenida 3, n.* 23-23, M É R I D A .

V I E T - N A M : Librairie-papeterie Xuân-Thu, 183-193 rue Tu-Do, B .P . 283, S A I G O N .

Y U G O S L A V I A : Jugoslovenska Knjiga, Terazije 27 BEOGRAD.

COUPONS

Unesco Book Coupons can be used to purchase all books and periodicals of an educational, scientific or cultura character. For full information please write to: Unesco Coupon Office, place de Fontenoy. Paris-7*, France. 89