Chu Thai HoanhInternational Water Management Institute (IWMI)

International assessment of adaptationInternational assessment of adaptationWater, Food and Environment under Climate ChangeWater, Food and Environment under Climate Change

Nov-03

Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR)

16 Centers (Institutes)(Institutes)

PenangPenang,,MalaysiaMalaysia

Nov-03

ADAPTADAPTWater, Climate, Food and Environment under Water, Climate, Food and Environment under

Climate ChangeClimate Changein Seven River Basinsin Seven River Basins

Nov-03

Adaptation in seven river basinsAdaptation in seven river basins

1. Goal2. Basins & major issues3. Collaborators4. Methodologies5. Climate changes6. Adaptation strategies7. Lessons learnt

GoalDownscaling CC from global to regional level:

Develop & evaluate adaptation strategies for river basins under climate change & climate

variability

Nov-03

Seven basins & major issues

Nov-03

Sacramento, US70,000 km2, dry

Volta, WA400,000 km2, dry

Rhine, EU185,000 km2, wet

Walawe, SL2,400 km2, wet

Syr Darya, CA400,000 km2, dry

Mekong, SEA800,000 km2, wetZayandeh Ruh, Iran

42,000 km2, dry

ADAPT Basins dry / wet areas & developed / developing regions

Nov-03

Sacramento

Sacramento

Agriculture, Agriculture, wetland & fisherieswetland & fisheries

Nov-03

Rhine

Rhine Flood control Flood control

& urban + industry demand& urban + industry demand

Nov-03

Volta

Volta

HydropowerHydropower

Nov-03

Syr Darya

Syr Darya

Lowering of Lowering of Aral sea levelAral sea level

Nov-03

Zayandeh Ruh

Zayandeh Ruh

Agriculture Agriculture vsvsindustry & urban demandindustry & urban demand

Nov-03

Walawe

Walawe

AgricultureAgriculture

Nov-03

Mekong

Agriculture Agriculture & flood control& flood control

Mekong

Nov-03

CollaboratorsCollaborators1. Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Netherlands2. International Water Management institute (IMWI), Sri Lanka3. International Food Policy Institute (IFPRI), USA4. FAO, Italy5. Institute of Infra-structural Hydrological & Environmental Engineering

(IHE), Netherlands 6. Institute for Geo-information and earth Observation (ITC),

Netherlands 7. Irrigation Department (ID), Sri Lanka8. Mekong River Commission (MRC) Cambodia 9. Moscow State University (MSU), Russia 10. SEI-Boston, USA11. Tarbiat Modarres University (TMU), Iran 12. Water Research Institute (WRI), Ghana 13. Wageningen University & Research (WUR), Netherlands14. Center for Development Research (ZEF), Germany

http://www.geo.vu.nl/users/ivmadapt

Nov-03

ADAPT approach

Nov-03

Changes:

Current !Future

Nov-03

SocioSocio-Economic &

Climate Drivers

Pressures

Adaptationstrategies

ImpactsImpacts

Stakeholders

‘State’ Changes

‘Issues & Problems’

Derived from DPSIR approach(Driving forces PressuresStateImpactResponse)

Nov-03

Adaptation strategies to:

waterqualityHealth habitatsecurity SecurityQuantity TransportHydropower

Environment(Human) Food IndustryEnvironment

(ecosystems)

Enhance environmental quality Secure food production Enhance industrial capacity

pcb people at risk

SalmonBODha floodplainforest

ha upstream forest

NaCl Fertilizer

% lateral freedom

% longitudinal freedom

YieldFarm income

tons ofRiver fish

Variation inFarm income

Kw produced # daysUn-navigable

Indicators

Nov-03

Drivers

Population growth

Climate change & variabilityCurrent situation:

- CRU data (Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK)

- IPCC SRES data (Special Report on Emission Scenarios).

- Observed data

Temperature & Precipitation

Future situation:SRES A2 and B2 storylines2010-2039 & 2070-2099

Nov-03

Climate Climate vsvs Development?Development?

Population: changes in meanClimate change: changes in extremes & frequency

Vörösmarty, C.J., P. Green, J. Salisbury, R.B. Lammers. 2000. Global Water Resources: Vulnerability from Climate

Change and Population Growth. Science 289: 284-288.

Nov-03

Climate change in seven basins

Nov-03

2070-99HadCM3-A2: HadCM3-B2:

dTMP=4-5oCxPRE=1.28

dTMP=5-6oCxPRE=1.06

Mean Annual Precipitation (mm)Mean Annual Temperature (oC)

Syr Darya Climate 1961-90

Nov-03

Mekong precipitationMekong precipitation

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091

Year

Precipitation (mm/month)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091

Year

Precipitation (mm/month)

A2A2

B2B2

Nov-03

Mekong temperatureMekong temperature

15

20

25

30

35

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091

Year

Mean temperature (oC)

A2A2

B2B2

15

20

25

30

35

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091Year

Mean temperature (oC)

Nov-03

Volta climate Volta climate -- HadCM3 A2HadCM3 A2

24

26

28

30

32

34

Tem

pera

ture

(o C)

CRU GCM 1961- 2010- 2070- 1990 2039 2099

400

800

1200

1600

2000

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

y-1)

CRU GCM 1961- 2010- 2070- 1990 2039 2099

Period 1961- 1990

2010- 2039

2070- 2099

Temperature (oC) 27.3 28.5 31.8Std (oC) 0.5 0.5 0.8CV (%) 1.7 1.7 2.5 Precip. (mm y-1) 1079 1161 1147Std (mm y-1) 115 105 123CV (%) 10.7 9.0 10.7

Nov-03

Mekong

0500

1000150020002500

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

2070

2074

2078

2082

2086

2090

2094

2098

Year[m

m]

Sacramento

0

600

1200

1800

2400

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

2070

2074

2078

2082

2086

2090

2094

2098

Year

[mm

]

Walawe

0600

12001800240030003600

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

2070

2074

2078

2082

2086

2090

2094

2098

Year

[mm

]

Extreme dry year

Extreme wet year

Extreme dry year

Extreme wet year

Extreme dry year

Extreme wet year

CRU

CRU

CRU

B2

B2

B2

Nov-03

Extreme years of precipitation in the Rhine Basin

0200400600800

100012001400

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

2070

2074

2078

2082

2086

2090

2094

2098

Year

[mm

]

Extreme years of precipitation in the Syr Darya Basin

0100200300400500600700

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

2070

2074

2078

2082

2086

2090

2094

2098

Year

[mm

]

Extreme years of precipitation in the Volta Basin

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

2070

2074

2078

2082

2086

2090

2094

2098

Year

[mm

]

Extreme dry year

Extreme wet year

Extreme dry year

Extreme wet year

Extreme dry year

Extreme wet year

Nov-03

Extreme years of precipitation in the Zayandeh Rud Basin

0200400600

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

2070

2074

2078

2082

2086

2090

2094

2098

Year

[mm

]

Extreme dry year

Extreme wet year

Nov-03

Changes in crop yield & water resources

Nov-03

Changes in crop yield & water resources

Use models & expert knowledge

Hydrological models Food production models (dif. Scales)

Nov-03

SWAP model at field scaleSWAP model at field scale

Deep groundwater

Surface runoff

Transpiration

Evaporation

PrecipitationIrrigation

Unsaturatedzone

Saturatedzone

Drainage/subsurface infiltration

Properties:- water retention- hydraulic conductivity

Transport:- water- heat- solutes

Nov-03

Food production modelsYield Walawe / Sri Lanka

Nov-03

Yield Yield BAU, HADCM3_A2BAU, HADCM3_A2

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%Changes in Yield (%)

2010-20392070-2099

Zay_Wheat

Zay_Rice

Wal_Vege

Wal_Rice

Vol_Maize

Vol-Rice

Syr_Wheat

Syr_Cotton

Sac_Tomato

Sac_Rice

Rhi_Wheat

Rhi_SugB

Mek_Maize

Mek_Rice

Nov-03

Effective temperature for rice

05

101520

2530

0 10 20 30 40 50

Daily average temperature (oC)

Dai

ly in

crea

se in

te

mpe

ratu

re s

um (o

C)

Nov-03

Max, min & average temperatureMax, min & average temperature

20

25

30

35

40

45

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091

Year

Maximum temperature (oC)

5

10

15

20

25

30

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091

Year

Minimum temperature (oC)

15

20

25

30

35

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091

Year

Mean temperature (oC)

A2A2

Nov-03

Food production Food production –– SyrSyr DaryaDarya

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1961-90 NA E F I M

A2B2

Wheat Production 2070-99 (mln t)

A2: less water less food

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1961-90 NA E F I M

A2B2

Average Farm Income 2070-99 (USD/farm)

0

1

2

3

1961-90 NA E F I M

A2B2

Cotton Production 2070-99 (mln t)

B2: more water more food

Nov-03

WalaweWalawe -- Impact on Impact on Food SecurityFood Security

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70Threshold Value

Low

Yie

ld Y

ears

1961-19902010-20302070-2099

Number of years with low yields, defined as a year where total rNumber of years with low yields, defined as a year where total rice ice production is lower than the 5 years moving average considering production is lower than the 5 years moving average considering a a

defined Threshold Value. defined Threshold Value.

Basin simulation modelsBasin simulation models

Nov-03

SLURP modelSLURP modelMekong river subMekong river sub--basinsbasins

Raster 0.5 degree

Climate stationwith long records

Sub-basin Area (km2)

Mun 60,912 Chi 55,985 Chi-Mun 4,175 Lancang 225,562 Nam Ou 30,708 Nam Ngum 8,886 Mekong 1 156,509 Mekong 2 20,558 Sekong 28,601 Srepok 48,318 Mekong 3 27,701 Tonlesap 86,594 Delta 40,492 Total 795,000

China

Vietnam Lao PDR

Thailand

Cambodia

Myanmar

MEKONG BASIN

Nov-03

Changes in Mekong flowChanges in Mekong flow

Monthly Q - A2 - Mekong 3

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091

Month

Q (m3/s) Monthly Q - A2 - Delta

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091

Month

Q (m3/s)

Monthly Q - B2 - Delta

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091

Month

Q (m3/s)Monthly Q - B2 - Mekong 3

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091

Month

Q (m3/s)

Nov-03

RHINEFLOW-2 modelDischarge Rhine Basin

Current vs A2 scenario

2010-2039Current

2070-2099

Nov-03

Mekong Mekong -- changes in water resourceschanges in water resourcesHigher flood and more droughts in A2, 2010-39

Nov-03

Adaptation strategies

Nov-03

Four Adaptation StrategiesFour Adaptation Strategies

Environmental focusedFood focusedIndustry/Energy FocusedMix of the above

Nov-03

Field / Management/policy scale:1. Side path Salmon2. Open reservoir in dry period3. Use less fertilizer4. Develop sewage treatment plants5. Develop dikes & protection6. Construct flood regulation area7. Regulate mangrove lodging8. Protect wetlands (RAMSAR)

Farmers/manager/policy scale:1. Rainfed to irrigation2. Increase crop intensity3. Salinity control4. Increase water storage capacity5. Re-use waste water6. Desalinisation7. Water pricing8. Water rights9. Insurance arrangements

1. Built new reservoirs2. Develop sluice / barrages3. Sell Kw for Food

‘I’:. Industrial measures

‘F’: Food security measures

‘E’: Environmental measures

Measures Adaptation Strategies

MekongEnv. adaptation

strategy

Food adaptation strategy

Ind. adaptation strategy

Mixed adaptation strategy

E3, E4, E5, E7F6

E4F1, F2, F3, F5

F4I1

E3, E4, E5F1, F2, F3I1

1

2

3

4

Rhine VoltaEnv. adaptation

strategy

Food adaptation strategy

Ind. adaptation strategy

Mixed adaptation strategy

Env. adaptation strategy

Food adaptation strategy

Ind. adaptation strategy

Mixed adaptation strategy

E3, E4, E6F7

E6F2, F5, F9

E6I2

E4, E6F2, F5I2

E4F1, F2, F3, F5

E2, E4, E8F1

F7I3

E2, E4F1, F2I3

ETC

Nov-03

Scenarios for MekongScenarios for Mekong

Reforestation of all shrub land

(17.7%) by mixed forest

Developed for food

Effects of CC, agriculture &

forestry

CC-AgriFor4

CurrentDeveloped for food

Effects of CC & agriculture

CC-Agri3

CurrentCurrentEffects of CCCC-NoAgri2

CurrentDeveloped for food

Current trend without CC

Baseline1

ReforestationAgriculture development

ObjectiveScenarioNo.

Nov-03

Scenario CCScenario CC--NoAgriNoAgri: : higher flood, deeper salinity intrusionhigher flood, deeper salinity intrusion

4616,14013,672Ave 70_99-29-171,311466Min 70_99

151358,69662,118163553,18155,168Max 70_990115,39712,973Ave 10_39

-1561,588592Min 10_39-2-150,18854,016-11045,27145,163Max 10_39

Scenario B2141717,69815,147Ave 70_99

-26-241,370424Min 70_99303566,43974,055194154,26957,659Max 70_99

0015,39912,940Ave 10_39-721,726574Min 10_39

-2550,29457,387-11445,09146,635Max 10_39Scenario A2

15,45912,894Ave 61_901,857560Min 61_90

51,16154,82945,68140,995Max 61_90DeltaMekng 3DeltaMekong 3DeltaMekng 3DeltaMekong 3

% changeDaily discharge (m3/s)% changeMonthly discharge (m3/s)Sub-basin

Nov-03

Scenario CCScenario CC--AgriAgri: : higher flood, deeper salinity intrusionhigher flood, deeper salinity intrusion

3515,90213,512Ave 70_99-30-171,305466Min 70_99

151358,65562,070163453,13855,106Max 70_99-1015,24512,884Ave 10_39

-2061,484592Min 10_39-2-250,16553,979-11145,26445,504Max 10_39

Scenario B2131617,43914,967Ave 70_99

-26-241,370424Min 70_99303566,64874,178194154,49757,723Max 70_99

-1015,23012,843Ave 10_39-721,726574Min 10_39

-1550,53357,629-11445,44646,646Max 10_39Scenario A2

15,45912,894Ave 61_901,857560Min 61_90

51,16154,82945,68140,995Max 61_90DeltaMekng 3DeltaMekong 3DeltaMekng 3DeltaMekong 3

% changeDaily discharge (m3/s)% changeMonthly discharge (m3/s)Sub-basin

Nov-03

Scenario CCScenario CC--AgriForAgriFor: : less severe floodless severe flood

4314 78712 553A 70 99-38-301,149394Min 70_99

162159,09966,124153452,73554,967Max 70_99-9-714,13211,942Ave 10_39

-23-51,423533Min 10_39-6-348,22153,068-9941,72544,536Max 10_39

Scenario B24716,10313,809Ave 70_99

-27-261,356412Min 70_99263164,24571,874163052,77053,370Max 70_99

-9-814,11911,905Ave 10_39-12-91,634508Min 10_39

-2549,92857,410-5343,19042,376Max 10_39Scenario A2

15,45912,894Ave 61_901,857560Min 61_90

51,16154,82945,68140,995Max 61_90Delta

Mekong 3DeltaMekong 3Delta

Mekong 3DeltaMekong 3

% changeDaily discharge (m3/s)% changeMonthly discharge (m3/s)

Sub-basin

Nov-03

Conclusions on basin CCConclusions on basin CC

Adjust GCM data to regional conditions =>

improve regional projections

CC has a clear impact on food & water in all basins. However, not all changes cause negative impacts in Env. and/or Food.

Nov-03

What we have done?SocioSocio-Economic &

Climate Drivers

Pressures

Adaptationstrategies

ImpactsImpacts

Stakeholders

‘State’ Changes

‘Issues & Problems’

1. Described ‘Pressures, issues, problems’

2. Development of Drivers (population & CC/CV)

3. Simulation of Changes (food / hydrology)

4. Development and evaluation of Adaptation str.

What to be done?5. Cost benefit analysis

6. Link basin to global scale

7. Stakeholder involvement

Nov-03

Link basin strategies to global developments…..

Change in suitability for rain-fed wheat (HadCM3-A1FI, 2080s).

Fisher et al. 2002Global Water and Agricultural: Climate Variability and Change Assessment

Global model: Mark Rosegrant (IFPRI) / Ken Strzspek (Univ. Colorado)

Nov-03

World Market Food Prices Influenced by Climate Change

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Rice Wheat Maize Other Grain Soy Cassava andR&T

Crop

Pri

ces

Rela

tive

to C

urre

nt P

rice

s

MaxPlank B2 2020MaxPlank B2 2080Hadley A1 2020Hadley A1 2080Hadley B2 2020Hadley B2 2080

World market food prices under climate changesWorld market food prices under climate changes

Nov-03

Another challenge: adaptation to adaptation strategies Applied by others, including natural & human systems(Ex. people in delta have to adapt to local CC and also adapt to strategies of upstream people

=> may we agree a common strategies for the whole basin?)

- Yes, but also White House effects

!

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION