Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Professor Mohan Munasinghe. Multidisciplinary Research Week

Multidisciplinary Research Week (17-22nd March 2013)

‘Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’,

by Professor Mohan Munasinghe, Chairman, Munasinghe Institute for Development (MIND), Colombo; Professor of Sustainable Development, University of

Manchester.

M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development Sustainable Consumption Institute SCIUniversity of Manchester

Integrated solutions for multiple global problems by applying the Sustainomics

transdisciplinary framework

Professor Mohan Munasinghewww.mohanmunasinghe.com

Chairman, Munasinghe Institute for Development (MIND), Colombo Professor of Sustainable Development, SCI, Univ. of Manchester

Distinguished Guest Professor, Peking University, ChinaVisiting Professor, Vale Sustainable Dev. Inst., Fed. Univ. of Para, Belem, Brazil

Shared the 2007 Nobel Prize for Peace (Vice Chair, IPCC-AR4)

Keynote Speech delivered at Multidisciplinary Research Week

University of Southampton, 18 March 2013

M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development

Warm congratulations to the organisers for putting together

this unique event on MULTIDISCIPLINARY

RESEARCH. Complex global problems of sustainable

development need integrated, transdisciplinary approaches.


Multi-disciplinary specialist teams from different disciplines coordinate efforts to apply various concepts and methods to complex problems

Inter-disciplinarymulti-disciplinary team seeks to break down the barriers among various disciplines and achieve a synthesis, usually at the results stage.

Trans-disciplinary(approach promoted in Sustainomics) Inter-disciplinary team seeks to combine knowledge from various disciplines to synthesize new concepts and methods - before applying them to a complex problem.

Cross-Disciplinary Terminology


WHAT ? are the challenges Multiple global threats undermine sustainable development efforts & need integrated solutions

M I N D

Growing Risks of Global Breakdown due to Multiple Heavy Shocks

Multiple threats are inter-related and synergistic.Integrated & comprehensive solutions needed. Stakeholder interests divergent. Responses are uncoordinated & piecemeal – lack of political will

• Financial-economic crisis: Asset bubble• Persistent poverty and growing inequity• Resource shortages: water, food, energy • Environmental harm, extreme events, conflict

mass migrations, pandemics• Climate change: the ultimate threat amplifier

Munasinghe Institute for Development


POVERTY: Poor living on < $1 per day


Unfair World Consumption Pattern 2000 Champagne Glass

The richest fifth of the World’s Population receives 83% of the Worlds Income

One fifth of the Worlds Population

The poorest fifth of the Worlds Population receives 1.4% of total World Income

Ratio is 60:1 between highest and lowest 20% !

83%

M I N D

Nu

mb

er

of

Ea

rth

s

Sustainable

BAU

Ecological Footprint of Human Consumption In 2012 we need 1.5 earths; by 2035 almost 2 Earths

Unsustainable

oneearth

2012 2030

Existing nuclear weapons can wipe out life on entire planet !

M I N D

Climate Change – IPCC AR4 Main Findings• Global warming in unequivocal. Total radiative forcing of the climate

now is unprecedented in several thousand years, due to rising concentrations of GHG (CO2, CH4 & NO2).

• Humans activities since the 18th century are very likely to have caused net warming of Earth’s climate, dominating over the last 50 years. More temp. and sea level rise is inevitable, even with existing GHG concentrations.

• Long term unmitigated climate change would likely exceed the capacity to adapt, of natural managed and human systems.

• Adaptation measures are available, but must be systematically developed • Mitigation technologies are also available, but better policies and

measures (PAM) are needed to realize their potential. • Poor countries & poor groups are most vulnerable to warming, sea level rise, precipitation changes and extreme events. Most socio-economic sectors, ecological systems and human health will suffer.

• Making development more sustainable (MDMS) is the most effective solution - by integrating climate change policy into sustainable development strategy.

M I N D

Uncoordinated responses complicate mattersExample: 2007-2008 food scarcity - 1

Human actions• Oil crisis Corn for ethanol

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Uncoordinated responses complicate mattersExample: 2007-2008 food scarcity - 2

Human actions• Oil crisis Corn for ethanol

• Drought Grain shortageNature

RESULTFood Scarcity

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WHAT ARE OUR VALUES AND HOW WELL DO WE

ESTABLISH PRIORITIES ?

Dealing with the Triple Bubble Crisis

M I N D

Financial Markets

Productive Economic Assets

Bio-geo-physical Resources

Econ. Growth

Sound financial markets and economic growth should be based on the true value of the productive economic asset base. In turn the value and use of economic assets should closely reflect the state of natural (bio-geo-physical) resources

Head in the clouds?

Feet firmly on the ground?

Three Levels of Reality

M I N D

Financial Markets


Asset Bubbles

Triple crisis bubbles driven by greed – enjoy now & pay later 2A few get rich quickly, many innocents pay a heavy price afterwards

2008 crisis

M I N D

Financial Markets


Asset Bubbles


Econ. Growth

2008 crisis Poverty-Inequity

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Financial Markets


Asset Bubbles



Econ. Growth


ExternalitiesClimate change

M I N D

Financial Markets


Asset Bubbles



Hu

man

Val

ues

/Ch

oic

es

Econ. GrowthGovt. Bailout >$5 trillion Aid/yr ~$100 billion


Asset bubble >$100 trillion (1012), Global GDP >$60 trillion

World Military Expenditures: almost $2 trillion in 2012

ExternalitiesClimate change

Few billion $

M I N D

Focus on CLIMATE CHANGE:

Threat Multiplier



MAIN DRIVERChanges in CO2 from ice core and modern data

(methane and nitrous oxide also cause global warming)

-10,000 -5,000 TODAY (years)

275Pre-ind:

400Now: near


RESULT: Mean temp, sea level and ice coverSea Level (16 cm in 100yrs.)

Arctic Sea Ice Extent (min.)

Mean Temp. (0.75C in 100 yrs.)

150 yr. 100 yr.50 yr.

25 yr.

Glacier Mass Balance


Examples include:• non-polar glacier retreat• reduction in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness in

summer• earlier flowering and longer growing and breeding

season for plants and animals in N. Hemisphere • poleward and upward (altitudinal) migration of

plants, birds, fish and insects; earlier spring migration and later departure of birds in N. Hem.

• increased incidence of coral bleaching

Observed regional changes in climate, and in physical and biological systems


IPCC-AR4: Predicting the Global Climate of 2100GHG conc. 2-3 times pre-ind. level (280 ppmv)

Temp. rise ~3C (1.1 to 6.4) Sea level rise ~40cm (20 to 60)

M I N D

Global Impacts of Climate ChangeAt 2C, Food & Water impacts are severe. Ecosystem

impacts, extreme events and catastrophic changes worsen

Source: IPCC AR-4

M I N D

Large Scale, Long Term Risks: Tipping Elements

Lenton et al, 2008

Even 2ºC imposes risks of catastrophic, irreversible impacts


Rad

iati

veF

orci

ng

Climate

System

Feedbacks

Human and

Natural Systems

(V&A Areas)

Human Actions Causing GHG Emissions

Climate DomainSustainable Development

Domain

Feedbacks

Different

Socio-economic

Development

Paths

(SD Goals & Policies)

AtmosphericGHG Emission

and Concentration

Scenarios

Climate Change Stresses (temp., sea level, precip. etc.)

Dri

vers

Non

-clim

ate

Stre

sses

Feed

back

s

Global Level Two Way CC-SD Links 1


Rad

iati

veF

orci

ng

Climate

System

Feedbacks

Human and

Natural Systems

(V&A Areas)

Human Actions Causing GHG Emissions

Climate DomainSustainable Development

Domain

Feedbacks

Different

Socio-economic

Development

Paths

(SD Goals & Policies)

Mit

igat

i on

AtmosphericGHG Emission

and Concentration

Scenarios

Climate Change Stresses (temp., sea level, precip. etc.)

Ada

ptat

ion

AdaptiveCapacity

MitigativeCapacity

Econ. Soc. Envir.

Non

-clim

ate

Stre

sses

Feedbacks

Feedbacks

Feed

back

s

Global Level Two Way CC-SD Links 2


MOST DESIRABLE:

CC Policies that Harmonise both Adaptation and Mitigation (Win-Win) while also Making Development More

Sustainable (MDMS)

Examples: growing forests, energy saving

Many trade-offs also arise and need to be reconciled


Global Adaptation

Response Options


Global Impacts and Vulnerability WE CAN PROTECT THE MOST VULNERABLE

• People: Poor, Children, Elderly.

• Regions: Small Islands, Arctic, Asian megadeltas, Sub-saharan Africa.

• Sectors & Ecosystems: Coral reefs, sea-ice regions, tundra, boreal forests, mountain and Mediterranean regions, low-lying coasts, mangroves & salt marshes;

Water resources in mid-latitudes & dry tropics; Low-latitude agriculture; Human health where adaptive capacity is low.


A temperature increase of 1.5°C - 2.5°Cover present, would put 20% - 30% of higher plants and animals at high risk of extinction

Ecosystems Vulnerability

Loss of Critical Ecosystem Services


Adaptation Example: People flooded in coastal areas 2080Constant protection = spending maintained at 1990 levels.


Adaptation Example: People flooded in coastal areas 2080Constant protection = spending maintained at 1990 levels.Evolving protection = spending increases at same rate as GDP.


Global Mitigation

Response Options


Global emissions must peak & decline by 2015-2020 (latest)

Copenhagen Accord recognises danger limit of 2°C rise and stabilisation level of ~450 ppmv by 2100 (currently 392 ppmv, safe level 280 ppmv).

CO2 stabili-zation

CO2-Equivalent Stabili-zation level

Year CO2 needs to peak

GDP reduction in 2030

Reduction in 2050 relative to 2000

Global Mean temp. incr. at equilib.

Global average sea level rise from thermal expansion

ppm ppm Year % Percent °C metres

350 – 400 445 – 490 2000–2015 < 3 -85 to -50 2.0 – 2.4 0.4 – 1.4

400 – 440 490 – 535 2000–2020 < 2 -60 to -30 2.4 – 2.8 0.5 – 1.7

440 – 485 535 – 590 2010 – 2030 0.6 -30 to +5 2.8 – 3.2 0.6 – 1.9

485 – 570 590 – 710 2020 – 2060 0.2 +10 to +60 3.2 – 4.0 0.6 – 2.4

570 – 660 710 – 855 2050 – 2080 +25 to +85 4.0 – 4.9 0.8 – 2.9

660 – 790 855 – 1130 2060 – 2090 +90 to +140 4.9 – 6.1 1.0 – 3.7


Failing the Challenge of MitigationUNFCCC 1992 – good start. Article 2 specifies stabilization of atmospheric concentrations of GHG concentrations at a level that does not harm the climate system (food security, ecological systems and sustainable economic development).

Kyoto Protocol 1997 – modest target. By 2012 Annex I nations to reduce emissions 5% relative to 1990. Compliance weak. Came into force without USA (largest emitter). Even after Kyoto 1997, emissions continue to increase

Post-Kyoto Agreement 2013? Bali (COP13) & Poznan (COP14) made a start, but Parties repeatedly postponed the issues until 2015-20 , at Copenhagen (COP15), Cancun (COP16), Durban (COP17) and Qatar (COP18-Dec.2012) ! World is now facing 3-4 °C temp. rise by 2100.


Short-term (2010-2020) GHG emissions reduction are possible with existing technologies and policies

at an affordable cost

• Energy: significant technical progress has been made in the last 10 years and at a faster rate than expected (wind power, solar, elimination of industrial by-products, hybrid engine cars, fuel cell technology, carbon capture and storage, etc.)

• Land Use: good potential for carbon sinks and reduced GHG emissions from both better management of existing land cover, and transformation of land use


All sectors and regions can contribute to mitigation

Note: estimates do not include non-technical options, such as lifestyle changes.


• Policies for “carbon price”- can create incentives for producers and consumers to significantly invest in low-GHG products, technologies and processes. Higher carbon prices could impose significant burdens on the poor, unless targetted relief policies are implemented to ensure basic energy needs are met.

• Technology Policies - Deployment of low-GHG emission technologies and RD&D would be required for achieving stabilization targets and cost reduction

• International Agreements - achieving the UNFCCC/Kyoto Protocol targets may stimulate a global response to the climate problem, an array of national policies, the creation of an international carbon market and new institutional mechanisms. Future agreements will help reduce global costs of mitigation( eg: emission trading, Joint Implementation and CDM) and improve environmental effectiveness

Key Policy Elements


Policies are available to governments to realise mitigation of climate change

• Effectiveness of policies depends on national circumstances, their design, interaction, stringency and implementation

– Integrating climate policies in broader development policies – Regulations and standards – Taxes and charges – Tradable permits – Financial incentives– Voluntary agreements – Information instruments – Research and development


Sustainability & Resource Use: Historical LessonsDURABLE USE OF RESOURCES• Nile Basin (Egypt)

Pharaonic system lasted over 4000 years, with sustainable resource use and reasonable quality of life

• Yellow River Basin (China)Imperial system was stable for many millenia, and supported flourishing society

• Saraswati River (India)Hosted a flourishing civilisation for 4000 years. River eventually dried up due to tectonic activity, climate change and desertification, and water piracy.

OVEREXPLOITATION OF RESOURCES• Sahara Desert

Once green with many animals and hunters. Over-exploitation led to a drier habitat which could no longer sustain these populations


Recent lesson of late 19th century holocausts - relevance to Globalization & Climate Change

• 18th century – Brazil, China and India had quality of life comparable with Europe.

• 19 century – Colonial rule trapped developing country small farmers were into exporting cash crops at ever decreasing terms of trade. Growing trade led to falling grain output and rising food insecurity.

• Late 19th century – Two El Nino draughts 1876-78 & 1898-1901 killed tens of millions due to food vulnerability and famine. The developing world is still unable to catch up after this setback.

• Future globalization and climate change could interact like colonial trade expansion and El Nino, BUT on a worldwide scale – Potential for future starvation and death on global scale due to vulnerability of the poor, unless a new vision based on SD emerges.


Poverty, Inequity, PandemicsEnvironmental degradationResource Shortage, Conflict Social polarization, Terrorism

Climate Change

Unrestrained market forces increase risk of conflict (erosion of

ethical & moral values underpinning civilization)

Chaos, Break-downConflict, rivalry and competition for resources overwhelm all efforts to impose order

Fortress WorldLocal, regional & global groups protect their interests within enclavesHow will we cope with such a world, especially the poor?

Barbarization: One Risky Future Scenario


WHAT ?

HOW ?

are the challenges Multiple global threats undermine sustainable development efforts & need integrated solutions

can we move forward to transform risky current trends into a safer and better futureApply the SUSTAINOMICS framework to start making development more sustainable (MDMS)

M I N D

Asset crisis: have we learnt from experience? Are we not returning to business as usual?

2008-10

Financial Sector

Jobless Poor ~100 million

2011-13

M I N D

Global Economic Balance Shifting Towards Emerging Economies

The global balance of economic momentum has shifted. For the past decade, emerging and developing economies have grown over 5% faster than advanced economies. US, Europe and Japan are still struggling to come out of the financial crisis, and facing major issues including low growth and high debts.The SOUTH led by the BRICS emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China & S. Africa) are forging ahead after only a minor initial downturn in growth – both GNP and HDI have improved.

M I N D

LOST OPPORTUNITY: Economic Stimulus Packages were not used to also solve longer

term issues of Poverty, Resources & CC1.Support productive long term investments (e.g.,

infrastructure, renewable energy, forestry, agriculture) and social development (e.g., health, education, sustainable livelihoods, safety nets), NOT subsidies for rich banks, companies & consumption expenses.

2.Boost poverty reduction and job creation efforts (e.g., more access to assets for the poor, promote exports of IT and manufactures).

3.Better governance, manage markets, reform prices

Fraction of stimulus funds spent on green investments:Korea – 80%; China – 35%; Others mainly 10-15% or less

M I N D

Better Use of the Momentum for Change

1.Build for long term. Make Development More Sustainable -- with balanced consideration of sustainable development triangle (economic, social and environmental elements). Transcend conventional boundaries using innovative, holistic, integrative approaches.

2.Transform global governance structure. Reform market regulation. Make UN system more effective & responsive. Make IMF/World Bank more inclusive. Give more weight to G20 (with advice from B20, C20, etc.)

M I N D

Post-2015 Process• Mandates

– Defined at MDG Summit 2010 (High Level Panel)– Rio+20 Conference 2012 (OWG)

• Leadership– Member States: prerogative to deliver framework– UN Secretary-General: to present vision to General

Assembly in September 2013 building upon UN system’s work and consultation processes


Way Forward - A Long Term Vision of SD: 1Levels

Main Issues (surface)

IndicatorsPoverty, Inequity, Exclusion,

Resource Conflicts, Harm to

Environment (including CC)

Human InterventionsHigh risk from unrestrained, myopic market forces (“Washington consensus”, globalisation etc.) – Reactive: piecemeal - mainly govt.

Source: Munasinghe (2007), IPCC, MA, GTI

Now

Time

Business-as-usual poses unacceptable risks for the future




ImmediateDrivers(sub-surface)




Consumption Patterns

Production/Technology

Population

Governance


Making development more sustainable (MDMS) with systematic policy reform to manage market forces (Sustainomics) – Proactive: integrated, harmonious approach - govt., business, civil soc.


Now

Transition

Time

The SD transition requires multiple threats to be addressed with CC and other policies integrated within SD strategy




ImmediateDrivers(sub-surface)

UnderlyingPressures(deep)




Consumption Patterns

Production/Technology

Population

Governance

Basic Needs

Social Power Structure

Values, Perceptions, Choices

Knowledge Base


Making development more sustainable (MDMS) with systematic policy reform to manage market forces (Sustainomics) – Proactive: integrated, harmonious approach - govt., business, civil soc.

Fundamental global sustainable dev. transition catalysed by grass roots citizens movements, & driven by social justice, ethics and equity, innovative leadership, policies, info. flows, tech. (new SD paradigm) – Proactive: civil soc., business, govt.


Now

Transition

Long Term

Time


HOW DO WE GET THERE ?

Addressing Complex, Multiple, Interlinked Sustainable Development

issues within the Integrated SUSTAINOMICS Framework


SUSTAINOMICSCore concepts and elements

1. Making development more sustainable (MDMS)EMPOWERMENT, ACTION & FORESIGHT

M I N D

Making Development More Sustainable through EMPOWERMENT, ACTION & FORESIGHT

There are many definitions of sustainable development starting with Bruntland (1987), and its precise meaning still remains elusive. Parallel track strategy: 1. Short to medium term – make development more sustainable (apply best practice).2. Long term - aim for ideal goal of sustainable development (identify next practice). Making development more sustainable (MDMS) is a less ambitious incremental strategy that is more practical to implement because many unsustainable activities are easier to recognize and eliminate.

PRACTICAL TEST FOR PUBLIC POLICIES:Does the policy make development more (or less) sustainable?


Lets move forward NOW!! If we climb uphill, we will reach

the peak eventually

We cannot see the peak!! Let’s stop to discuss &

analyze how to reach it.

Sustainable Development Peak – including climate change (covered by clouds)

Many obviously unsustainable practices exist today. MDMS encourages us to eliminate them NOW! Examples include energy wastage and deforestation.

EMPOWERED to Make Development More Sustainable (MDMS) – BEST PRACTICE

ANALYSING SD and CC – NEXT PRACTICE


Making Development More Sustainable: Personal Lifestyle Changes


MDMS: SCP, Corporate Social Responsibility, Sustainability Accounting & Reporting, Shared Value

•SCP provides major opportunities to improve resource efficiency.•Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) is a concept whereby organizations consider the wider interests of society by taking responsibility for the impact of their activities on customers, suppliers, employees, shareholders, communities and the environment in all aspects of their operations. •Sustainability Accounting & Reporting includes the generation, analysis, use and reporting of economic, environmental and social information (monetised wherever possible) to improve corporate management and performance in those areas. This approach recognizes that the social and environmental consequences of corporate actions are as important as monetary profits, and seeks to measure and report on those outcomes, via the Triple Bottom Line.•Shared Value seeks to make profits while benefiting society & environment by finding shared sources of value common to the enterprise and to society.


Development- Sectors (Agriculture, Energy, Industry,

Transport, Health, etc.)- Systems (Environmental, ecological, etc.)

- Communities (Poor, Vulnerable, etc.)

Su

stainab

le Dev.

(So

cial, Eco

no

mic,

En

viron

men

tal)

En

viron

men

t(n

atural variab

ility)

CC

ImpactsAdaptationMitigation

MDMS: National Level CC-SD IntegrationMake decision makers see sustainability and climate

change as key elements of national development strategy


Ecosystem

EcologicalServices

SolarEnergy Radiated

Energy

The capacity of the ecosystem may become overloaded by the growing socio-economic subsystem (broken lines).

Nat. Res.Energy

Waste

s

Pollutio

n

Socioeconomic Subsystem

MDMS: Global restructuring (not reduction) of development and growth - 1


MDMS: Global restructuring (not downsizing) of development and growth - 2

(rounding the rectangle)



Unsustainable Sustainable

Ecosystem Ecosystem




2. Harmonising the sustainable development triangleBALANCE, INTEGRATION


Economic

Social•

empowerment/governance

• inclusion/consultation• institutions/values

Environmental• resilience/biodiversity• natural resources• pollution

Sustainable Development Triangle – harmonising key elements and interconnections (corners, sides and centre) Source: Munasinghe [1992], Rio Earth Summit

• growth• efficienc

y• stability


Economic

Social•




• in

tra-

gene

ratio

nal

equi

ty

• b

asic

nee

ds/li

velih

oods

• inter-generational equity

• values/culture

• valuation/internalisation

• incidence of im

pacts

PovertyEquity

Sustainability Climate Change



y• stability


Economic

Social•




• in

tra-

gene

ratio

nal

equi

ty

• b

asic

nee

ds/li

velih

oods

• inter-generational equity

• values/culture

• valuation/internalisation

• incidence of im

pacts

PovertyEquity

Sustainability Climate Change



y• stability G

REEN

ECONOMY


Building Assets for Sustainable Development

SocialCapital

ManufacturedCapital

Natural Capital

Social Capital• Human• Cultural

Source: Munasinghe (1992), Rio Earth Summit

Southampton Univ.


Key role played by Social Capital embedded in Civil Society: ignored, undervalued, invisible

• At individual level: is built on personal networks that help us enormously in our private and professional lives.

• At community and national levels: is the invisible glue that binds society together – involving values- ethics, culture, behaviour, and social linkages.


Social Capital – Civil Society & ValuesExamples of Civil Society Response: 2004 Tsunami - Sri

Lanka versus 2005 Hurricane Katrina - New Orleans, USA

2004 Tsunami – Sri Lanka

~35,000(1 in every 570 people)

~ USD 1,000

2005 Hurricane Katrina - USA

~1850(1 in every 200,000 people)

~ USD 35,000

Event Deaths GNP/capita

Recent examples: China earthquake, Japan Fukushima Nuclear Disaster





3. Transcending boundariesINNOVATION


Innovation can help us Transcend Boundaries for Sustainable Development

• Values – replacing unsustainable values • Disciplinary – complex issues need all disciplines • Space – spans local to global scales• Time – spans days to centuries • Stakeholder – need to include all stakeholders• Operational – full cycle from data to application


Source: New Yorker

Innovation helps transcend mental barriers Status-Quo

Vested Interests

Innovators

Never, ever think outside the box!

M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development Sustainable Consumption Institute SCIUniversity of Manchester

Build essential ethical and moral values especially among YOUTH

Greed, selfishness and violence are unsustainable

Selflessness, altruism, enlightened self-interest, and respect for other humans and nature will make development more sustainable

Transcending Unsustainable Values

Ethical Dimensions of Climate Change 2006

Interfaith Declaration on Climate Change 2009

M I N DMunasinghe Institute for Development

Wrong Values Drive Unsustainable Development: 1

SocialCapital

EnvironmentalDebt

Unsustainable cons. & prod.

depleting NR

UnethicalSocial Values

Greed, Selfishness, Corruption, Inequity,

Violence, Injustice, Elitism

Source: Adapted from Munasinghe (1992), Rio Earth Summit



SocialCapital

Economic Mal-development

growth based on unsustainable debt, waste & inequitable

consumption by the elites

EnvironmentalDebt

Unsustainable cons. & prod.

depleting NR







SocialCapital




EnvironmentalDebt

Unsustainable cons. & prod.depleting NR





EnvironmentalDebt

Unsustainable Pollution &

Depleting Natural

Resources

Drivers of Unsustainable Development



SocialCapital




EnvironmentalDebt

Unsustainable cons. & prod.depleting NR





EnvironmentalDebt

Unsustainable Pollution &

Depleting Natural

Resources

Drivers of Unsustainable Development

(with feedback)

M I N D

Transcending disciplines to address SD issues

SD Issues

• social justice, equity, values and culture

• institutions and governance

• markets and prices

• technologies and management

• biological and physical resource base

Engineering Ecology

Natural Sciences

PhilosophySociology

AnthropologyLaw

PoliticsEconomics

FinanceManagement

Disciplines

Source: Munasinghe (2002), Int. J. of Sust. Dev.


Transcending Stakeholder Boundaries to Ensure Cooperation for Sustainable Development

SocialCapital

Business

Govern-ment

CivilSociety

GCI can catalyse interactions among government, civil society and business to strengthen local, national and global governance


Southampton Univ.


(sustainable) System

Transcending spatial and temporal scales Panarchy of Systems Concepts: 1

Big

ger

& L

onge

r L

ived

Source: Gunderson and Holling (2002)

Human being



Sub-Systems

Innovation and Adaptation from below(Faster Changes)


Big

ger

& L

onge

r L

ived


Human being

Cells



Super-System

Sub-Systems

Innovation and Adaptation from below(Faster Changes)

(Slower Changes)Conservation and Continuity from above


Big

ger

& L

onge

r L

ived


Society

Human being

Cells

M I N D

Transcending Operational Barriers Needs Better Stakeholder Cooperation

• Global• Regional• National• Local• Community• Individual

Pragmatic balance between subsidiarity and integration is essential: eg., CC or river-basin

Inte

grat

ion

Su

bsi

dia

rity

Top Down

Bottom upSpecific Projects

Strategy-Policy





3. Transcending boundariesINNOVATION

4. Full cycle application of integrative tools – from data gathering to practical policy implementation

IMPLEMENTATION


There are many practical analytical tools and policy options to integrate CC responses into SD strategy (from global to local levels)

There are many available case studies and best practice examples involving sustainomics applications

Core Concept 4: Full cycle application of integrative tools: from data gathering to practical policy IMPLEMENTATION


Full Cycle - OperationsACTION

Observations and Data

Concepts and Ideas

Models & Analyses

Interpretation of Results

Plans & Policies

Practical Applications

Impacts (SD triangle)

ACTOR

Observers

Thinkers & Philosophers

Scientists & Analysts

Translators & Communicators

Decision Makers

Implementing Agents

Assessment Experts

Each stage of activity has a tendency to become compartmentalised

Sea

mle

ss C

ycle

Source: Munasinghe (2002), Int. J. of Sust. Dev.


Choosing Appropriate SD Indicators - Social - Environmental - Economic- Institutional

many indicators are available; thus correct choice is critical for specific

task at hand

M I N D Munasinghe Institute for DevelopmentMunasinghe Institute for DevelopmentM I N D

Integrative Analytical Tools

1. Restructuring Growth to Make Development More Sustainable (MDMS)

2. Optimisation and Durability3. SD Analysis (Macro Level)4. Action Impact Matrix (AIM)5. Green Accounting (SEEA-SNA)6. Integrated Models (IAM, CGE, etc.)7. SD Analysis (Micro Level) 8. Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA), Cost-Benefit

Analysis (CBA) and Economic Valuation9. SD Indicators

Application LevelsA. Global- transnational

B. National-macroeconomic

C. Subnational-sectoral

D. Local-project

Integrative analytical tools and practical applications(linking across global, national and local levels)

Lin

kages Across

Levels


Main Types of Assets for Sustainable Development

SocialCapital

ManufacturedCapital

NaturalCapital


Sustainable Development

Integrating across the three dimensions of SD

Economic approach focuses on optimality - maximise growthEnvironmental & social approaches use durability – overall system health


Integrating Diverse Definitions of SustainabilityEconomic approach focuses on optimality - maximise growthEnvironmental & social approaches use durability – overall system health

Economic: Maximum flow of income that could be sustained indefinitely, without reducing stocks of productive assets. Economic efficiency ensures both efficient resource allocation in production and efficient consumption that maximises utility.

Ecological: Preserving the viability and normal functioning of natural systems, including system health ability to adapt to shocks across a range of spatial and temporal scales. Defined by a comprehensive, multiscale, hierarchical, dynamic measure describing system resilience, vigour and organization.

Social: Maintaining the resilience of social systems and limiting their vulnerability to sudden shocks. Involves building social capital to strengthen cohesion, protecting cultural diversity and values, and improving inclusion and participation - especially of disadvantaged groups.

M I N D

Munasinghe Institute for Development

Optimality and Durability: Simple Example Two modes complementary - tradeoff depends on situation

Optimal ModeOlympic 100m sprinter – willing to take high risk and make extreme effort to minimise running time (single indicator) for one special event

Durable ModeMiddle aged walker – undertakes regular, low risk exercise for overall health (multiple indicators), over many decades

Max. yieldHighest riskExamples: Iskill (Voldemart) 2B+ loss at JP Morgan. Leeson - Bearings

Mod. yieldLower risk

Yie

ld

Risk


WHAT ?

WHICH?

HOW ?

practical analytical tools and policies are availableMany best practice examples and case studies of integrated solutions exist, worldwide.




Global Application of Sustainomics: Climate Change Challenge

Making Development More Sustainable via “Tunneling”:

Potential Post-Kyoto Framework for Jointly Managing Climate Risk &

Right to Develop

M I N D

Climate Justice – Equitable Allocation of Per Capita Carbon Emissions


Adaptation Burden & Equity: CC SDAdaptation is the first priority of developing countries that are most vulnerable to climate change. Help is also crucial.• Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately

upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons within all countries, exacerbating inequities in health status and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources.

• Net economic effects will be negative in most developing countries

• Impacts will be worse - many areas are already flood and drought prone, and economic sectors are climate sensitive

• Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial, institutional and technological capacity, and access to knowledge


Per capita GHG emissions and population 2004Mitigation Responsibility & Equity: SD CCMitigation leadership is the main responsibility of industrial

countries with high per capita GHG emissions

Annex 1 avg.

Non-Annex I avg.


MOST DESIRABLE:

CC Policies that Harmonise both Adaptation and Mitigation (Win-Win) while also Making Development More

Sustainable (MDMS)

Examples: growing forests, energy saving

Many trade-offs also arise and need to be reconciled


Clim

ate

Ris

k(e

.g. p

er c

apit

a G

HG

em

issi

ons)

Development Level (e.g. per capita income)

MDMS via “Tunneling”: global cooperation to manage Climate Risk & Right to Develop - Step 1

Source: M. Munasinghe (1995) "Making Growth More Sustainable," Ecological Economics, 15:121-4.

Poor

Middle Income

Rich Today


Clim

ate

Ris

k(e

.g. p

er c

apit

a G

HG

em

issi

ons)




Poor

Middle Income

Rich

Incentives/resources for developing countries1. Adaptation fund (safety net) for poorest and

most vulnerable.

Transform - Decarbonise

M I N D Munasinghe Institute for DevelopmentMunasinghe Institute for Development

Clim

ate

Ris

k(e

.g. p

er c

apit

a G

HG

em

issi

ons)




Poor

Middle Income

Rich


most vulnerable.2. Technology cooperation/support to leapfrog

Leapfrog(CHINA,)

Transform - Decarbonise


Country Level Actions

Integrating Climate Change Policies into National Sustainable

Development Strategy

M I N D

Development- Sectors (Agriculture, Energy, Industry,

Transport, Education, Health, etc.)- Systems (Environmental, ecological, etc.)

- Communities (Poor, Vulnerable, etc.)

Su

stainab

le Dev.

(So

cial, Eco

no

mic,

En

viron

men

tal)

En

viron

men

t(n

atural variab

ility)

CC

ImpactsAdaptationMitigation

Integrating CC Policies into National SD Strategy Make decision makers see sustainability & climate change

as key elements of the national development strategy


Integration via SD Analysis at the Macroeconomic/Sectoral Level (general

equilibrium analysis)

1. Macroeconomic/Sectoral Modeling

2. Environmental and Macroeconomic Analysis

3. Poverty/Income Distributional Analysis


Basic

Input-Output

Table

Distribution of Income

Satellite

Environmental

Accounts

Envir.-Social LinksDistribution of Environmental

Impacts

Economic LinksEnvironmental- Economic Links

Economic-Social Links

Expanded Green National Income Accounts for SDS

ocia

l A

ccou

nti

ng

Mat

rix

(SA

M)

Source: Munasinghe (2001), Macroeconomics and Environment


Example

Analysing Water and Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture

in Sri Lanka Source: M. Munasinghe and S. Perera (2006)


National SD strategy & plans (NSSD, PRSP,

NEAP etc.)

Action Impact Matrix (AIM)

applied to SED

Macro- and SectoralModels and Analyses

Implement Energy & CC Policies & Proj.

interacti ons of national SD strateg y with energy & CC policies

{Identify Links, Screen, Prioritize Issues, Select Remedies

Analysing SD-CC Links using the Action Impact Matrix (AIM)


The AIM methodology may be used to better understand interactions among three key elements, at the country-specific level:(a) national development policies and goals; (b) key SD issues and indicators; and(c) climate change adaptation (and mitigation). First, the two-way linkages between elements (a) and (b) are explored, in the context of natural climate variability. Then, we impose the additional impacts of element (c) on the interactions between elements (a) and (b).The AIM approach analyses key economic-environmental-social interactions to identify potential barriers to making development more sustainable (MDMS) - including climate change. It also helps to determine the priority macro policies and strategies in economic, environmental and social spheres, that facilitate implementation of climate change adaptation and mitigation to overcome the effects of climate change. Thus, the AIM helps to integrate CC within SD. It has been used since the early 1990s to link macroeconomic policies and environment.

Action Impact Matrix (AIM) Methodology


The AIM methodology relies on a fully participative stakeholder exercise to generate the AIM itself. Up to 50 experts are drawn from government, academia, civil society and the private sector, who represent various disciplines and sectors relevant to both sustainable development and climate change. In the initial exercise, they usually interact intensively over a period of about two days, to build a preliminary AIM. This participative process is as important as the product (i.e., the AIM), since important synergies and cooperative team-building activities emerge. The collaboration helps participants to better understand opposing viewpoints, resolves conflicts, and ultimately facilitates implementation of agreed policy remedies. On subsequent occasions, the updating or fine-tuning of the initial AIM can be done within a few hours by the same group, since they are already conversant with the methodology.

AIM Process


(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

Agric. Output

Hydro Power

Deforestation

Bio-div. (flora

& fauna)

Wet-lands

& coastl ecosystems

Water resour

ces

Poor communities

Human health

Infra-struct.

Industries & Tour-ism

(S0) Status (Nat. Variability) -1 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 2 2

(S1) Status (+CC Impacts =>) -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1

Dev. Goals/Policies (+CC Impacts)

(A) Growth -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1

(B) Poverty alleviation -2 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1

(C) Food Security -3 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -1 -1 0 0

(D) Employment -1 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 -1 -2

(E) Trade & Globalisation -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -1

(F) Budget Deficit Reduction -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 -1

(G) Privatisation 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -1

Adaptation Effects on Development (VED-AIM) in Sri Lanka – CC Impacts and Effects of VA on Development Goals/Policies

Key Vulnerabilities, Impacts and Adaptation (VIA)Notation+ Beneficial- Harmful3 High2 Moderate1 Low


Downscaled GCM Results: Range of Climate Change Predictions for Sri Lanka in 2050

Global Scenario

Period Rainfall Temperature

B1 NEM Increase by 50 mm over the baseline

Max. temperature: increase by 0.80 C Min. temperature : increase by 1.00 C

B1 SWM

Increase by 350 mm over the baseline, especially over the Western slopes of the central hills


A1F1 NEM

Increase by 70 mm over the baseline, especially over the Eastern slopes of the central hills


A1F1 SWM

Increase by 520 mm over the baseline, especially over the Western slopes of the central hills



MACROECONOMY (Multisectoral CGE)

TRANSPORT

AGRIC-ULTURE & LAND USE

URBAN-IND

ROAD RAIL

OTHER

TREE CROPS RICE

FORESTRY

REGIONI

REGIONIII

REGIONII

Multi-sector Computable General Equilibrium Model linked to sectoral and project level models

ENERGY


Impact on Sri Lanka national economy in 2050* - GDP effect small BUT equity effect

largerCrop Change of Total

GDP in 2050 (%) Change Agriculture GDP in 2050 (%)

Rice (dry zone – poorer)

-0.36 -2.46

Plantation Crops (wet zone – richer)

+0.10 +0.70

Rice + Plantation Crops

-0.26 - 1.76

*Note: Assuming the same economic structure in 2050


Sri Lanka CC Impacts: Spatial Distribution


Some Key Policy Implications

1. Moderate overall impact on agricultural output and national economy, but some effects will emerge within next two decades

2. Significant potential risk to food security (rice)

3. High poverty impact on small farmers

4. Equity impact (small rice farms versus large tree crop plantations)

5. Demographic impact (potential migration from dry to wet zone)


Similar Procedure can be used to Integrate Mitigation into SD

Strategy using the AIM


Subnational-Sectoral and Local-Project

Level Analysis


Sustainable Development Assessment Tools (partial equilibrium analysis at sector/project level )

1. Economic/Financial Assessment (CBA)

2. Environmental Assessment (EA)

3. Social Assessment (SA)

4. Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)

5. Poverty Assessment (PA)

6. Technical Assessment (TA)

Choice of appropriate SD indicators is vital for SD Assessment

M I N D

Economic valuation of environmental (and social) impacts and assets is an important (and often neglected) aspect of cost-benefit analysis (CBA)

When valuation is not possible, other techniques like multi-criteria analysis (MCA) can be useful for decision making

Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) and Multicriteria Analysis (MCA)

M I N D

Inserting Environmental (& Social) Concerns Into Conventional Economic Decisionmaking 1

Air

Water

Land

Natural Habitats

Global Transnational

NationalMacroecon.

SectoralRegional

Inter-National

SubsectoralProject

EnvironmentalSystems Analytical Tools and Methods

DecisionmakingStructure

M I N D


Phy

sica

l, B

iolo

gica

l and

Soc

ial I

mpa

cts

Urban, Indust. and Air

Water

Land

Natural Habitats


NationalMacroecon.

SectoralRegional

Inter-National

SubsectoralProject

CO

NV

EN

TIO

NA

L E

CO

NO

MIC

AN

AL

YS

IS

Pro

j. E

val.

Cos

t -B

en.

Ana

l.

Sec

tora

l&

Sub

-na

tion

al A

nal.

Nat

iona

lM

acro

econ

.A

nal.

Int.

Eco

n.A

naly

sis

EN

VIR

ON

ME

NT

AL

AS

SE

SS

ME

NT

TE

CH

NO

-EN

GIN

EE

RIN

Gan

d F

INA

NC

IAL

AN

AL

YS

IS



M I N D


Phy

sica

l, B

iolo

gica

l and

Soc

ial I

mpa

cts

Urban, Indust. and Air

Water

Land

Natural Habitats


NationalMacroecon.

SectoralRegional

Inter-National

SubsectoralProject

SU

ST

AIN

OM

ICS

EN

VIR

ON

ME

NT

-EC

ON

OM

Y I

NT

ER

FAC

E

Impa

ct V

alua

tion

Inte

grat

ed

Res

ourc

e M

gmt.

Mac

ro. E

con.

A

nal.

& E

nv.

Acc

ount

.

Glo

bal

Env

. Eco

n.

Ana

lysi

s

CO

NV

EN

TIO

NA

L E

CO

NO

MIC

AN

AL

YS

IS

Pro

j. E

val.

Cos

t -B

en.

Ana

l.

Sec

tora

l&

Sub

-na

tion

al A

nal.

Nat

iona

lM

acro

econ

.A

nal.

Int.

Eco

n.A

naly

sis

EN

VIR

ON

ME

NT

AL

AS

SE

SS

ME

NT

TE

CH

NO

-EN

GIN

EE

RIN

Gan

d F

INA

NC

IAL

AN

AL

YS

IS



M I N D

Social concerns may be incorporated into conventional decisionmaking using a similar approach, but with more difficulty!

M I N D

Categories of Economic Value of Environmental Assets (examples from a tropical rain forest)

Use Value Non-use Value

Total Economic Value

Direct use values Indirect use values Option values Existence values Other non-use values

Outputs that can be consumed directly

Functional benefits

Future direct and indirect use values

Value from knowledge of continued existence

-Food-Biomass-Recreation-Health

-Ecological functions-Flood control-Storm protection

-Biodiversity-Conserved habitats

-HabitatsEndangered species

Decreasing tangibility of value to individuals

M I N D

Sustainomics Application – Forest Sector

SD Assessment of a Tropical

Rainforest in MadagascarFocus on economic valuation of costs and

benefits of establishing a new national park

Source: Munasinghe (2007)

M I N D

Background and ObjectivesMadagascar is economically poor, but ecologically rich (e.g., lemurs). It has been designated a mega-diversity area, whose ecosystems are also at great risk. The government is seeking to control forest degradation and protect biodiversity. This study was the first stage analysis to facilitate a decision on creating a new national park.

The proposed national park would generate both indirect and direct costs and benefits. Costs arise from acquisition of private land, hiring of park personnel, and development of roads, visitors' facilities, and other infrastructure. Other important costs (often ignored) are the opportunity costs from foregone uses of park land. Use-value benefits from tourism can generate considerable national revenues from both entrance fees and travel expenditures. Non-use benefits include existence and option values. Indirect benefits may include reduced deforestation, watershed protection and climate regulation. This study seeks to measure important but difficult to measure economic impacts, i.e., costs to local villagers and benefits to foreign tourists.

M I N D

SD Goals

Economic - maximise net benefits

Social - balance (competing) interest of stakeholders (especially the poor): Villagers on-site, Tourists (foreign and local), People of Madagascar (Government)

Environmental – safeguard and maintain nationa park and ecosystems

M I N D

Valuation Techniques Used in Study

• Opportunity Cost Analysis• Travel Cost Analysis• Contingent Valuation Analysis

Evaluate Support Benefits of Forests (from MA):

Provisioning, Regulation, Cultural

M I N D

Activity No. of Observ-ations

Total annual value for all

villages (US$)

Mean annual value per

household (US$)Rice 351 $44,928 $128

Fuelwood 316 $13,289 $38

Crayfish 19 $220 $12

Crab 110 $402 $3.7

Tenreck 21 $125 $6

Frog 11 $71 $6.5

Value of Local Household Activities

M I N D

Economic Costs and Benefits of Establishing New National Park (using different methods)

Annual mean value Aggregate NPV

Welfare losses to local villages (US$) Method Used per householdOpportunity Cost 91 566,070

CVM 108 673,078

Welfare gains to foreign tourists (US$) Method Used per tripTravel Cost 1 (random utility) 24 936,000

Travel Cost 2 (typical trip) 45 1,750,000

CVM (use & non-use value) 65 2,530,000

M I N D

Madagascar Study - Key ConclusionsPolicy Implications: Can help in investment decisions, resource

mobilization, project design and management, including how to (a) allocate scarce capital resources among competing land use activities;(b) choose and implement investments for natural resource conservation

and development; (c) determine pricing, land use, and incentive policies; (d) set compensation for local villagers for foregone access to forest areas; (e) show value of park as a global environmental asset to foreigners (e.g.,

obtain external funds for conservation) Issues: WTP is fundamental to the economic approach, but over-

emphasizes value ascribed to richer foreign visitors. If conflicting claims to park access were determined purely on this basis, poor local villagers are more likely to be excluded. However, social aspects of sustainable development (like equity and distributional concerns) will help to protect the basic rights of local residents – e.g., "safe minimum" degree of access to park facilities, “buffer zone”, etc.


Sustainomics application: project level

Multicriteria SD Assessment of small hydro schemes using economic, social and

ecological indicatorsPrimary Source: Morimoto R., and Munasinghe M. (2005) “Small hydropower projects and sustainable energy development in Sri Lanka”, Int. Journal of Global Environmental Issues, Vol.4.

Summary: Munasinghe, M. (2002) “The sustainomics trans-disciplinary meta-framework for making development more sustainable: applications to energy issues”, Int. J. of Sustainable Dev.,Vol.4, No.2, pp.6-54.


Overview of study• Energy affects all three dimensions of sustainable development. • Reviews linkages between potential impacts of energy

production and consumption on sustainable development,. • Multi-criteria analysis used to assess the role of small

hydroelectric power projects in sustainable energy development.

• 3 key variables (measured per unit of GHG avoided per year): Economic - electricity supply costs, Social - numbers of people displaced (resettled), Environmental - biodiversity loss

• Analysis helps policy-makers compare and rank project alternatives more easily and effectively.

• The multi-criteria analysis, which includes environmental and social variables, supplements and balances cost benefit analysis which is based on economic values alone.


Average generation costs (AVC), biodiversity index (BDI), and number of resettled people (RE) by hydroelectric project. All indices are per tonne CO2 avoided per year. Numbers of people resettled and the biodiversity index are scaled for convenience (by multipliers 10-5 and 10-9 respectively). The values at the top of the graph indicate the annual energy generation in gigawatt hours (GWh).

28 11 159 210 209 20 149 114 390 512 22 78 161 34 50 83 42 18 123 79 113 143

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

project

AVC (US cents/kWhyr)

BDI/kWhyr

RE/kWhyr

Project Level: Economic, social and ecological indicators for small hydro in Sri Lanka


Figure 5. Three dimensional MCA of sustainable development indicators for various hydropower options. Source: Morimoto, Munasinghe and Meier [2000]

Ave

rage

gen

erat

ion

cos

t (U

S c

ents

/kW

hyr

)

Number of resettled people / kWhyr

Biodiversity index / kWhyr

Three dimensional MCA of SD indicators of small hydro

Tonne CO2/ Tonne CO2


WHAT ?

WHICH?

HOW ?




WHO ? must act now and how Sustainable consumers and producers can play a key role in the UK & globally.

M I N D

THE SUSTAINABILITY AGENDA – ACT NOW

Partnership of Sustainable Consumers and Producers

M I N D

Economic

Social• fairness/

empowerment• inclusion/consultation• institutions/

governance

Environmental• natural resources• resilience/

biodiversity• pollution

• in

tra-

gene

ratio

nal

equi

ty

• b

asic

ne

eds/

livel

ihoo

ds• inter-generational

equity• values/culture

•

valuation/internalisati

on

• incidence of im

pacts

SD based on Happiness &

Well-Being (GNH)

• efficiency

• growth• stabilit

y

21st Century Global Eco-Civilization

Vision: Global Eco-Civilization of the 21st Century will focus on Happiness & Well-Being (GNH)

determined not only by material consumption (GNP)

China: Hu Jintao, 18th Party Congress


Vision for 2030: Targets

Social: meet basic needs of all human beings especially the poor & vulnerable, ensuring peace, harmony, social justice & security.Environmental: respect nature & reduce humanity’s global ecological footprint to less than one planet earth. Economic: build a sustainable economy that is prosperous and resource-efficient, but respects critical environmental and social sustainability constraints.

M I N D

Sustainable Consumption & Production Pathway (SCP) to

Sustainable Development (SD) & Global Eco-Civilization:

Millennium Consumption Goals (MCGs) are an important tool

M I N D

Nu

mb

er

of

Ea

rth

s

Sustainable

BAU

Ecological Footprint of Human Consumption In 2012 we need 1.5 earths; by 2035 almost 2 Earths

Unsustainable

oneearth

2012 2030


Unfair World Income Distribution 2000 Champagne Glass

The richest fifth of the World’s Population receives 83% of the Worlds Income

One fifth of the Worlds Population

The poorest fifth of the Worlds Population receives 1.4% of total World Income

Ratio of 60:1 between highest and lowest 20% !!

83% 1.4 billion


Millennium Development Goals (MDG)United Nations Millennium Declaration, 2000

•Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger•Achieve universal primary education•Promote gender equality and empowerment•Reduce child mortality•Improve maternal health•Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases•Ensure environmental sustainability•Develop a global partnership for developmentCommendable targets for 2 billion poor, but in the post-2015 agenda, where are the resources to meet them, especially with the onset of climate change


Clim

ate

Ris

k(e

.g. p

er c

apit

a G

HG

em

issi

ons)


Resource-based Model for Making Consumption and Production More Sustainable


Poor

Middle Income

Rich


most vulnerable.2. Technology cooperation/support to leapfrog

Leapfrog

Transform Decarbonise

M I N D

Food for a Week: Affluent FamilyUnsustainable – must transform/decarbonize towards sustainablity: Millennium Consumption Goals

Source: Menzel, 2005

Food for a Week: Poor FamilyUnsustainable/Unethical – must leapfrog/tunnel to prosperity: Millennium Development Goals

M I N D

The consumption of the rich is crowding out the development prospects of the poor.

As resources (like energy, water and food) become scarce, the “market” solution is for

prices to rise – but this will simply ration those resources in favour of the rich and

deprive the poor of even their basic needs. Recent events in many countries show that

deprivation leads to violence

We can enhance poverty eradication and protect nature by complementing the MDGs with Millennium Consumption Goals that will

help make the rich consume more sustainably


SocialCapital

Economic Goal (Growth of Material

Output and Consumption by the Rich)

Environmental Goal (Protect

Nature)

Social Goal(Protect the Poor

and Weakest)


Economic Goal in the SD Triangle is Crowding Out Social and Environmental Goals – Unsustainable!

M I N D

Key MCGs

Address under-consumption of the poor: - Ensure basic human needs (food, water, energy, health, etc)

Address unsustainable consumption of the rich: - GHG emissions - Energy use - Water use - Land use and Biodiversity - Pollution & Waste (air, water, solid and toxic waste)

Other MCGsFood, diet and health, lifestyles, livelihoods and work,

financial system, military spending

Millennium Consumption Goals – Basic Concepts

M I N D

Millennium Consumption Goals (MCG): Advantages of New Pathway to Sustainability

1. Targeted: 20% of richest percentile (1.4 billion people) account for >80% of consumption. Small changes towards sustainable consumption can reduce burden on environment

2. Complements MDGs: Builds MCG-MDG links & protects consumption of poor3. Soft Multilevel Strategy – Bottom Up & Top Down: Seeks to influence

voluntary behaviour of many people at individual, community, city, enterprise, regional, and country levels. Complements top-down policy, global targets (UN, govt.)

4. Complements MDG: Frees resources to build consumption safety net for poor 5. Fractal and Subsidiary: Basic concept unchanged (like snowflake) and effective

implementation possible at finer levels of detail.6. Faster Response: Provides quicker results compared to top down government

policies and long term industrial investments. Momentum build up over time.7. Transnational: Cuts across national boundaries and avoids self-interest based

approach of governments and interest groups8. Motivation: Rich are key stakeholders acting with enlightened self-interest,

better education, more influence and resources9. Integrates Sustainable Consumption and Production: Links with producers and

global supply/value chains

M I N D

MCG

Sust. Cons. & Prod.

Green Econ.

Sust. Dev.

Agreed & Voluntary MCG

Building Blocks

Rooms Castle

MCG Path to SCP and SD

M I N D

The Millennium Consumption Goals Initiative (MCGI) was launched to move this idea forward. It is being pursued by a broad coalition of stakeholders - the MCG Network (MCGN). It is action-oriented, multi-level, pluralistic and transnational. The MCGI seeks to be as inclusive as possible, and follows aflexible, multi-track approach. It is moving forward in the UN. Meanwhile, action is being taken NOW by individuals, families, communities, enterprises, cities, regions and countries. These pioneers are already developing their own specific versions of MCG, implementing them, and monitoring and reporting progress - there is no need to wait for broad multilateral agreements at the UN-global level!Thus, MCG is being pursued by the willing, at whatever level they choose, and focusing on the goals they prefer — carbon emissions is the favourite, but energy and water are also attractive. A broader enabling framework of goals and policies will emerge gradually from discussions at UN/govt. level. Support MCGI, Set Voluntary MCG !

Millennium Consumption Goals Initiative (MCGI) & Network (MCGN)

M I N D

Pioneering Voluntary MCGCities and Communities Climate Alliance (~2000 european cities) – endorse MCGsCity of Munich, Germany 1. By 2030, to halve per capita CO2 emissions in relation to 1990. 2. By 2025, to meet all Munich’s electricity demand from renewable energy.Naestved Community, Denmark By 2030, reduce carbon emissions by 50%.

Business Novozymes, Denmark By 2015, reduce CO2 emissions by 75 million tonnes through customers’ application of Novozymes’ products relating to bioenergy, agriculture, household care and industrial processes

Academic and Research

Munasinghe Institute for Development, Sri Lanka From 2011 onwards, became 100% carbon neutral

Civil Society A number of individuals have declared their personal MCG targets.

M I N D

Sustainable Consumption empowers householdsInfluence people’s behaviour to promote sustainable change

• Empower and motivate – using prices, labels information, psychology and advertising.

• Change values, habits and socio-cultural contexts to shift to low-carbon products and behaviour. Eg., public attitude to smoking

• Adapt material and physical elements of production - goods and infrastructures are inter-connectedSocial capital embedded within individuals and communities, can

be better mobilized, organized, and empowered to work synergistically with business and influence government, to make development more sustainable (MDMS)!

Individual

Community

Producer

M I N D

“Take charge of your life! You must define your

meaningful consumption! Do not let meaningless

consumption define you!“

M I N D

EXAMPLE: Food Spoilage is a Major Cause of World Hunger

3.9 billion tons (approx.) of food is currently produced annually for human consumption

1.3 billion tons of food spoiled annually

1/3 rd of world food production is lost or wasted(in homes: USA-50% & Europe-30%)The poor waste very little food, but the growing numbers of affluent people in developing countries are imitating the wasteful behaviour of the industrialised countries

FAO ,2011

M I N D

% of Population Undernourished

About 1 billion hungry: 1 in every 7 persons, mainly in Africa and Asia!


Changing Consumer Behaviour: Example - Basic Principles of Sustainable Energy Pricing


Sustainable Energy Pricing: to incorporate Economic, Environmental and Social Goals

1. Economic efficiency: prices based on long-run marginal cost to reflect scarcitye.g., rising oil prices




2. Environmental protection: prices incorporate (internalise) externalitiese.g., add air pollution taxes, carbon taxes, etc.




2. Environmental protection: prices incorporate (internalise) externalitiese.g., add air pollution taxes, carbon taxes, etc.

3. Social equity: subsidised prices to meet basic energy needs of the poore.g., targeted low prices for minimum use by poor

High energy prices meets economic & environmental goals. The social equity goal offsets high prices that favour the rich & deprive the poor of basic energy needs. Integration across energy sub-sectors to avoid cross-pricing conflicts.


Sustainable Pricing of Energy Summary• Eliminate Economic subsidies (marginal cost pricing

for economic efficiency)

• Internalise Environmental externalities

• Satisfy Social concerns (affordable basic energy needs)

M I N D

Launched at Rio+20SustainoMusica is an international consortium of musicians and music lovers who believe that music and song constitute an universal language that can be used effectively to communicate the message of sustainability to everyone on the planet. We are confident that our new music of sustainability will appeal to the heart, especially to empower and motivate young people. We feel that this complementary approach will have greater appeal than the messages of science and policy, which are aimed mainly at the mind. Music and song will help to make sustainability a practical and living reality, by harmonising people and planet, to achieve prosperity, peace and happiness - that is what our logo shows.

Changing Values by Appealing to the Heart – Focusing on Young People

M I N D

Sustainable Production: Insights from Workshops & Seminars on Business & Sustainability for Senior Managers of Leading Multinationals

Recent Examples:• BASF, Germany (Chemicals)• TESCO, UK (Supermarkets)• Unilever, Coca Cola, Reckit-Benkeiser, Johnson SC,

Danone, Nestle (Retail)• Petrobras, Brazil (Energy, Oil and Gas)• OPEC (energy, oil and gas)• Sime Darby, Malaysia (Plantations Conglomerate)• Novozymes, Denmark (Biotechnology)• Vale, Brazil (Mining)• Siemens, Shanghai Electric Group (Heavy Industry)

M I N D

Global resource use versus income (175 countries in the year 2000)

Less SustainableSome countries have high resource use per unit of GDP

More SustainableOther countries have low resource use per unit of GDP

Res. Use per capita

GDP per capita

Source: UNEP,Res. Eff. For Dev. (2011)

M I N D

Global resource use versus income (175 countries in the year 2000)

Less SustainableSome countries have high resource use per unit of GDP

More SustainableOther countries have low resource use per unit of GDP

Res. Use per capita

GDP per capita

Source: UNEP,Res. Eff. For Dev. (2011)

Future growth trajectory is key to sustainability


Business Community - Evolution of Attitudes “Few trends could so thoroughly undermine the very foundations of our free society than the acceptance by corporate officials of a social responsibility other

than to make as much money as possible for stockholders.”

Milton Friedman (1962), Econ. Nobel Prize, Capitalism & History

”The crisis has led many in the UK, France and the USA to demand the right of inventory. Should the only questions that Managers be asking be: how to maximize shareholder’s value? Or, what is the importance of values?

What are our values?Stephen Green (2009), CEO of HSBC, "Good Value: Reflections on Money, Morality and an Uncertain World”

“Over the past decade, sustainability has moved from the fringes of the business world to the top of the shareholders' agenda….” PriceWaterHouseCooper (2009)

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Suggestions for Enterprises1. Sustainability reporting: declaring bold sustainability

goals and reporting on performance, transparently.2. Sustainability accounting: identifying economic,

environmental and social indicators (both internal and external), and using them to evaluate performance.

3. Undertaking research and studies to improve performance and implementing the results.

4. Training management and staff on sustainability and bringing about value change.

5. Disseminating relevant information on sustainable development to the community, country and world.

6. Working with govt. and civil society to make development more sustainable.

M I N DSource: Adapted from Munasinghe et al. (2009)

Raw material production

Manufacture & processing

Logistics distribution transport

Retail Consumer use

Recycling &

disposal

Light bulb (UK 11W)

2% 1% 1% 95% 1%

Sustainable Production - life cycle analysis of CO2 emission hot spots along the supply/value chain: 1





Retail Consumer use

Recycling &

disposal

Light bulb (UK 11W)

2% 1% 1% 95% 1%

Orange Juice (Brazil freshly squeezed 1L)

28% 19% 47% 5% 1% 0%






Retail Consumer use

Recycling &

disposal

Light bulb (UK 11W)

2% 1% 1% 95% 1%

Orange Juice (Brazil freshly squeezed 1L)

28% 19% 47% 5% 1% 0%

Milk (UK, National Tesco)

76% 5% 4% 10% 3% 1%



Sustainable Consumers

Sustainable Producers

Civil Society

Busi-ness

Bringing Sustainable Consumers & Producers Together: 1 Sustainability Culture - Making Development More Sustainable (MDMS)Sustainability leadership by a few consumers and producers


Other Sustainable Consumers

Sustainable Consumers

Sustainable Producers

Other Sustainable ProducersMCG

Govt.

Civil Society

Busi-ness

Bringing Sustainable Consumers & Producers Together: 2 Sustainability Culture - Making Development More Sustainable (MDMS)

Sustainable behaviour spreads throughout the country


Building assets for SD

SocialCapital

EconomicCapital

Natural Capital



Universities

Social capital is as important as other types


Working with Responsible Media in Making Development More Sustainable

SocialCapital

Business

Govern-ment

CivilSociety

Ethical Media help build

coalition for SD

Media must play greater role in disseminating correct information to strengthen civil society and business in supporting and influencing

government to move towards a more sustainable development path.



WHAT ?

WHICH?

HOW ?




WHO ? must act now and how Sustainable consumers and producers can play a key role in the UK & globally.

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Hopeful final message for the World• Multiple global problems pose a serious challenge to us all –

poverty, energy, water, hunger, climate change, economic crises, resource scarcities, ecosystem harm, etc. are interlinked.

• There is hope that there are integrated, holistic solutions to these problems, provided we begin now - we should not despair although the issues are complex and serious.

• Using the Sustainomics framework, we know enough already to take the first steps towards making development more sustainable (MDMS), that will transform our risky “business-as-usual” scenario into a safer & better future.

• Governance systems (at all levels) must be transformed to deal comprehensively with multiple crises.

• Business and civil society can help government in identifying issues, changing values and implementing solutions.

• Working together, we can build the new sustainable development models for a 21st century Global Eco-Civilization.


“DEVO VASSATU KALENA SASSA SAMPATTI HETU CA PHITO BHAVATU LOKO CA RAJA BHAVATU DHAMMIKO”

“May the rains come in time, May the harvests be bountiful May the people be happy & contended May the king be righteous”

Even in ancient times, a favourable environment, economic prosperity, social stability (and good governance), were clearly identified as key pre-requisites for making development more sustainable.

Environmental:Economic:

Social:

Ancient Pali Blessing (Sri Lanka)

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Environment

Society Economy

Munasinghe Institute for Development "making development more sustainable - MDMS“

10/1 De Fonseka Place, Colombo 5, Sri LankaPhone: +9411-255-1208; Fax: +9411-255-1608

E-mail: <[email protected]> ; Web: <www.mindlanka.org>


MIND PROGRAMMES • Awards

Research fellowships, Scholarships, MIND Sustainable Support Service (MS3), Book donations

• Dissemination & ResearchDissemination & Training workshopsExpert meetings & conferencesApplied research studies and evaluationsUN “Centre of Excellence” for Asia in the Climate Change Capacity Development (C3D) network of the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR).

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Graduate level courses on Sustainomics have been given at leading universities worlwide, including:

Brazil - Federal Univ. of Para China - Peking Univ. Denmark - Copenhagen Univ.Germany – Darmstadt Univ.India - TERI Univ. Sri Lanka - Colombo Univ. UK - Manchester Univ. USA - Yale Univ.

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MIND CC-SD Training Course, CMA, Beijing, July-Aug, 2006 270 Senior Chinese Officials

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MIND SD Course, Delhi, Feb. 200725 Senior Indian Civil Service Officers

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MIND-ERC CC-SD Training Course, University of Cape Town, October 2007, for 30 Senior Decision Makers from Government, Business and Civil Society


Suggestions for Further Information

1. Munasinghe, M. (2010) Making Development More Sustainable Development, Second Edition, MIND Press, Sri Lanka – Translated into Chinese and Portuguese.

2. Munasinghe, M. (2009) Sustainable Development in Practice – Sustainomics Methodology and Applications, Cambridge University Press, UK.

3. Munasinghe, M., and Swart, R. (2005) Primer on Climate Change and Sustainable Development, Cambridge University Press, UK – Translated into Chinese.

4. Website URL: <www.mindlanka.org>


MIND Press Book: 650 pages

Second Edition Published in April 2010


Cambridge University Press Book: 650 pages

Published in May 2009


Thank You Very Much

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