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Charles, C.N., Kishore, M.S., B.K. Naik
UAS- Dharwad
Can India sustain its pulses growth trajectory?
Harnessing successes and reshaping the future
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Presentation at the IFPRI conference on ‘Pulses for sustainable agriculture and human health’, May 31-June 1, 2016
Layout of presentation
Introduction
Data and analytical approaches
Findings
Conclusion and implications
2
Introduction and motivation
India is largest producer (18.2mn tons) and consumer
(>22mn tons)
Target production of 23.4mn tons by 2020 to 27.5 mn
tons by 2025
Target yield of 900kg/ha by 2020 to 1000kg/ha by
2025
Target area of 26mn ha by 2020 to 27.5 mn ha by
2025
Examined the dynamics in supply, demand, area,
production & yield at national level
3
Data and analytical approaches
Secondary data, 1949-50 to 2014-15
Area, production, productivity, yield, availability, imports etc
Indian agricultural statistics, Directorate of Economics and
Statistics, Department of Agriculture and Cooperation and
published research papers.
National level analysis
Growth rate analysis
Descriptive statistics
Modified agricultural supply response function
4
Findings
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Production (supply) and imports of all pulses by India
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1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2010-11 2014-15
Total
Production
(mn ton) 10.63 14.26 11.08 18.24 17.38
Imports
(mn ton) 0.17 1.27 0.35 2.70 4.55
Imports as
% of
Production 1.63 8.93 3.16 14.80 26.17
Projected gap between domestic demand and supply of
pulses in India
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Net per capita availability of pulses in India
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Dynamic growth in area, production and yield of all pulses in
India
1980-2015 1980-90 1990-00 2000-15
Growth in
area (CAGR,
%)
-0.10 -0.60 1.31 0.12*
Growth in
yield
(CAGR, %)
1.59* 1.27* 2.43* 1.04*
Growth in
production
(CAGR, %)
1.49* 0.66 3.48 1.10*
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Trend in pulses production and area under irrigation in India
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Trends in production of major pulses in India
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Growth in area, yield and production of gram in India
1980-2013 1980-90 1990-00 2000-13
Growth in
area (%) 0.55* -1.42 1.32 4.08*
Growth in
yield (%) 1.15* 0.64 1.69* 2.07*
Growth in
production
(%)a
1.71* -0.84 2.92 5.30*
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Estimates of pulses acreage response
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Estimates of gram production response
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CONCLUSION AND POLICY IMPLICATION
Can India sustain its pulses growth trajectory?
Area, yield and coverage (%) under irrigation significant drivers
Area has contributed more than yield
In recent years, irrigation seem to be another key factor (Rabi),
Probably due to climatic changes
Policy to strengthen technology generation and dissemination,
irrigation system, price incentives and market access
If farmers cannot sell what they produce, they may not continue to
produce it
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Thank you!!!!!!!!
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