-Topic-

By : Desy Rosnita Sari

P28017016

SEMINAR (I) . 20122nd Presentation

Human’s Urbanization

NCKUUrban Planning Department

ARTICLE

The Urbanization of The Human PopulationKINGSLEY DAVIS

Published in Scientific American (1965)

First article in the first chapter

“The Evolution of Cities” in the Cities Reader . 5th edition 2007

Sociologist and Demographer (historical urban demography)*One of the most outstanding social scientists of the 21th century by American philosophical society

1. Ph.D. from Harvard University2. Hoover Institution senior research fellow3. Teach Smith College, Clark University, Pennsylvania State

University, Princeton University, Columbia University, the University of California at Berkeley and the University of Southern California.

4. President of the Population Association of America and the American Sociological Association

5. Represented US on the UN Population Commission.6. Advisor Council of the National Aeronautics and Space

Administration7. Advisor Committee on Population for the U.S. Bureau of

the Census8. First US sociologist to be elected to the National Academy

of Sciences (1966).

The Urbanization of The Human Population

Kingsley DavisAugust 20, 1908 – February 27, 1997

American

Publishing1. "Youth in the Depression" (University of Chicago Press, 1935)2. "World Population in Transition" (American Academy of Political and Social Science, 1945)3. "Human Society" (MacMillan, 1949)4. "Modern Society" (Rinehart, 1949)5. "The Population of India and Iraq" (Princeton University Press, 1951)6. "Population and Progress in Haiti" (Council on Foreign Relations, 1951)7. "The American Class Structure" (with J. Kahl; Rinehart, 1959)8. "A Structural analysis of Kinship" (Arno, 1960)9. "India's Urban Future" (with R. Turner; University of Michigan, 1961)10."Population Policy and Economic Development" (Stanford Research Institute, 1961)11."The psychology of Human Fertility" (Basil Blackwell, 1963)12."The Population Impact on Children in the World's Agrarian Countries" (Institute of International Studies, 1965)13."Cities" (Knopf, 1965)14."California's Twenty Million" (with F. Stylkes; University of California, 1971)15."World Urbanization 1950-1970" (Institute of International Studies, 1972)16."Cities: Their Origin, Growth and Human Impact" (Freeman, 1973)17."Below Replacement Fertility in Industrial Societies" (with others; Cambridge University Press, 1987)18."Population and Resources in a Changing World" (with others; Morrison Institute for Population and Resource

Studies, 1989)19."Resources, Environment, and Population" (with M. Bernstan; Oxford University Press, 1991)

1957 Prediction :

World population would reach 6 billion by 2000. --remarkably close; that it was reached in October 1999

* INTRODUCTION

The Urbanization of The Human Population

KINGSLEY DAVIS

Published in Scientific American (1965)

*The cause of cities expansion is because the multiplying of its inhabitant (city

growth + urbanization)

Urban Revolution

V. Gordon Childe

Town Planning Review (1950)

*A city is a density population determine by food supply ?

The Great Town

Friedrich Engels

From the condition of working class in England in 1844 (1845)

*A social misery of working class living in the city in revolution industry in

England

The Urbanization of The Human Population

Article structure is the basic understanding about :

1. What is urbanization?2. The history of urbanization 3. What caused urbanization?4. The differentiation between Urbanization and

Growth of the City

To understand what is urbanization?

Urbanized societies : A huge number of

people living crowdedly together in the

towns and cities – represent a new and

fundamental step in man’s social evolution

From where -the People live crowdedly in the city coming from

Inside the city itself Outside of the city

Kingsley Davis :

100.000 from population as urban area index

• Big enough for many cultures

• Convenient to count and measure the city in this size

• Statistically significant

?/

Urbanized societies PROPORTION

Year Population Number of urban areasTotal size of

urban areas

1960s

Today

52 million

96 million

*53% US population

(Urban Bureau : 70%)

21 urbanized areas

213 urbanized areas

as small as

Cochise city

size in Arizona

(16.107 km²)

0.7% US total

area (9,827,000

km²)

•Case of Urbanization in America

Urbanization in America

Huge number of populationLiving in small place together

- Satellite Image of America’s cities -

• The large and dense agglomerations comprising the urban population

involve a degree of human contact and of social complexity.

• They exceed in size the communities of any other large animal

• They suggest the behavior of communal insects rather that mammals

(Kingsley Davis - 1965)

Creating living environment as insect does

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

18001810182018301840185018601870188018901900191019201930194019501960197019801990

Urban proportion in percentage of world population

Urban proportion in percentage of world population.

million

Year

33%

50%

From where the People live crowdedly in the city coming from

CITY RURAL

IndustraizationEconomic aspectJobs Oportunity

Why rural-urban migrations occur?1. Agriculture sector uses land as its primary instrument of production and

hence spreads out the people who are engaged with it, where manufacture /

commerce / service use land only as a site

2. The demand for agriculture product is less elastic than the demand for

service and agriculture

3. As productivity grows, manufacture and service require or can absorb man

power by paying higher waves

4. Manufacture and service require small size of the land; both can located near

one another

5. Agriculture technology improved manpower less needed and economically

more burdensome

6. City people even with larger proportion already in the city and with inability

to replace themselves by reproduction, the urbanization flown even heavy,

for some countries its rural population begins to decline in absolute (Sweden

after 1920, England+Wales 1861, Belgium 1910)

26.8

20.817.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1846 1926 1962

Rural Population Decline in France

-In million population

116 years : 9.6 million rural population

4.3

3.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

1910 1960

Rural Population Decline in Sweden

-in million population

50 years : 0.8 million rural population

•Rural declined in absolute in Europe countries

4.7 4.7

4.3

4.5

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.8

Africa (7 countries) Asia (15 countries) Latin America (12

countries)

Avarrage

Avarrage Rate of Urban Population Growth

34 underdeveloped countries for data in 1940s-1950s

Cities growth in number of population and size

1. Food Demand increase 2. Rural economic and quality of life

improve3. Population growth in both side, rural

and urban area, and the continuing urbanization doubled total population growth

** USAID (http://transition.usaid.gov/press/frontlines/fl_mar05/ )

10

25

50 51 50 50

10

45

75

6055 53

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Typical Circle of Urban population

Urban Population Proportion above 50%Urban Population Proportion above 75%

Population increased above 50%, the number

population begins to flat, or even declines when the

population urban reached up to 75%.

UK …1926 (population slightly increased 78,7%)

•1961 Population remains 78,3%)

City Rural

Urbanization

City

Urbanization

PopulationPopulationUrbanize

*Population*Growth

*PopulationUrbanize*Growth

Rural

1

2

CITY++

RURAL

+ -

+ City Growth+ Urbanization

+ Rural Growth- Rural-urban migration

City Total population = City growth + Urbanization

100% = X % + Y %

= 60% + 40 %

•The cause of population growth.

General Population Growth (GPG) in Costa Rica 1927 – 1963 (36 years)

1927 NP : 471.500 Urb : 88.600 (18.8%)

1963 NP : 1.325.200 (GPG : 853.700) Urb : 456.600 (34.5%) ----(UrbPG : 368.000)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If NP is stable

1927 NP : 471.500 Urb : 88.600 (18.8%)

1963 NP : 471.500 (GPG : 0) Urb : 162.700 (34.5%) ? ----(UrbPG : 72.100)

The growth rate that should be occurred if the Rural-Urban Migration is the main factor of GPG!

City

CityCityRural

Urbanization

PopulationGood Quality of life

CONURBATION

City expunction

3

Mexico

America

CONURBTIONUrbanization area could not be scoped with political administrated boundaries. (New York – New Jersey)

?

Uranizationkeep growing

a. World population will decrees when it reach 9 billion

b. 50% urbanc. 1/3 of urban is slum

XIE XIE NIThank YouTerimakasi