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The process of forecasting an organisation’s future demand for, and supply of the right type ofpeople in the right number, in right place at right time.
It is a sub-system in the total org. Planning.
It tries to assess human resources requirements in Advance and keeping in view the production, Market fluctuations, demand/supply forecast etc. In the background
Forecast personnel requirements
Cope with the changes
Use existing manpower productivity
Promote employees in a systematic manner
Creating high talented personnel
Protection of weaker sections
International strategies
Resistance to change.
Factors influencing the HRP•Type and Strategy of Organization.•Organisation Growth Cycles and Planning.•Environmental Uncertainties.
•Time Horizon.•Type and Quality of Forecasting information.
•Nature of job being filled.
•Off loading the work.
PROCESS OF HUMAN RECOURCES PLANNING
Org.Objectives/Policies
HR Demand Forecast
HR Plan Programme
HR programme implementation
HR Supply Forecast
Control & Evaluation Programme
ShortageRecruitment&selection
SurplusRestrict hiring/
Retrenchment/Layoff
HR DEMAND FORECAST
Demand forecast is the process of estimating the future quantity and quality of people required. Demand forecasting must be consider both external and internal factors.
EXTERNAL FACTORS are
•Competition (foreign & domestic)
•Economic Climate
•Laws & Regulatory bodies
•Changes in Technology
•Social Factors.
INTERNAL FACTORS are
•Budget constraint
•Production Level
•New Products and Services
•Organizational Structure.
•Employee Separation
Strategic plans: If the mgt. Wants to split its Org.or wants to expand or taking new assignments i.e. entering into another type of production should plan for new professionals.
Demography: This related to fluctuations in births & death rates of a particular country, it may effect the long term policies.
The Economy: Economic conditions in the countryTechnological Trends: Advances in tech. Have effects the demand forecasting.Social Trends: The impact of the social customs & Political Systems have had major effects.
Forecasting Techniques
•Managerial Judgement
•Ratio-Trend Analysis
•Work-study techniques
•Delphi technique
Managerial Judgement:This is very simple. Managers sit together Discuss and arrive at a figure which would be the future demand for labour.This tech. involve ‘bottom-up or a top-down approach.Ratio-trend Analysis:This is the quickest forecasting technique. This technique involves studying the past ratioslike the no. of workers in the past and forecasting the future ratios making some changes in org. methods.
Eg: present level of production (1.1.2011) is …..1500 units No. of foreman ratio is (1:500)…………….3Estimated production for the next year (1.1.2012) is2500unitsNo. foreman required as on ….?
Work-study technique: This technique can be used whenIt is possible to apply work measurement to calculate the lengthof operations and the amount of labour required.Eg.
1.Planned out-put for next year……20,000 units2.Std. Hrs per unit………………….5 hrs.3.planned hrs for the year………….1,00,000 (i.e 20,000x5) 4. Productive hrs.per man/years ……2000
planned hrs. for the yearNo. of workers required = -------------------------------------
productive hrs per man/year1,00,000/2000=50.
Delphi Technique: Named after the ancient Greek prophet at the city of Delphi. In this method group of experts, usually managers estimates the personnel needs. The HRP experts acts as a intermediaries, summarise the various responses and report the findings back to the experts. The experts are surveyed again after they receive feedback. Summaries and surveys repeated again until they reach a common opinion.
After demand forecasting, next logical step for the manager is to determine whether it will be able to procure the required no. of personnel and the sources of such procurement. This Information provided by the supply forecasting.Supply forecasting measures the no. of people likely to available from within and out side of the org. after considering absenteeism, internal movement, promotions, wastage and change in working hrs.Supply analysis covers:•Existing Human Resources •Internal Sources of Supply,External Sources of Supply
Supply analysis covers:•Existing Human Resources •Internal Sources of Supply,•External Sources of Supply
Existing HR or Inventory:Inventory can be prepared basing on the employee skill & abilities. They are like
Personal Data : Ages, Sex, Marital status.
Skills : Education, Job, Experience.
Spl.qualifications : any spl. achievements of membership in any
professional bodies.
Salary & Job History : Present and past salary and increments in pay.
Company data : Benefits, seniority, retirement info.
Capacity of Individual : like dept. tests interviews.
Spl. Preferance of Individual: like geographic location,type of job
Internal sources of Supply:For internal sources of supply we have to Consider like:
Voluntary retirements
Retrenchments
Dismissals
Lay-offs
Disablements due to accidents
So to calculate about turnover rateNo.of employees entered in the org./Actual employees x 100.The internal source includes trg. Facilities, salary levels,Benefits and individual development.
Local: Local populations, Local un-employment Level, availability of employees in part-time, out-put from local educational institutions, Availability of manpower with required skills & Qualifications, local housing, reservations.
National Level: Trends in growth of working Population, out-come from technical, professional and educational institutions in the country, Social security measures(un-employment benefits Retirement benefits) impact of government rules and regulations
Jobs are very important to individual – jobs are Help for standard of living – place of residence- Status and org. point of view its important to reach or achieve their objectives or targets.Jobs are not fixed they are subject to change Due to tech. change.
•TASKIt is an identifiable work activity carried out for a specific purpose.Eg: counseling sessions.
•DUTYConsisting of several tasks that are performed by an individual.
•POSITIONIs nothing but collection of Tasks and Duties performed by the employee.
Job Analysis means:
•The process of gathering information about the job.•It is a detailed examination of a specific job•It is a systematic investigation of the tasks, duties and responsibilities necessary to do a job.
USES OF JOB ANALYSIS
•H.R PLANNING
•RECRUITMENT
•SELECTION
•PLACEMENT & ORIENTATION
•TRAINING & DEVELOPMENT•SAFETY & HEALTH•PERFORMANCE APPRAISAL•JOB EVALUATION
PROCESS OF JOB ANALYSIS
Taking Acceptance from the Mgt.
Constitute a Committee
Selecting Jobs for analysis
Collection of job analysis data
Preparation of job Description
Preparation of job specification
Job description is nothing but a written Statement of the tasks & duties performed, material & tools used, working conditions andrelations with other jobs.
Contents of Job Description are:Job title – Location of the Job – Equipment Worked with – Designation of immediateSupervisor & subordinate – Salary level –Conditions of work – T&D facilities, PromotionChances.
Job description is an organised, factual statementOf the duties and responsibilities of a specific job.It should tell what the job holder does – how it isDone – under what conditions it is done.
Uses of J.D: It can me used to orient new emp.Towards basic duties & responsibilities.
It can be used for job evaluation.
Job specification: It is nothing but a writtenStatement of the minimum qualification required for the successful performance of aJob. It specifies the qualifications, experience,Skills, knowledge and abilities to perform aParticular job
JOB ANALYSIS(the process of gathering information
for a particular job)
JOB DESCRIPTION(statement of tasks & duties
Involved in the job)
JOB SPECIFICATION(a statement of human qualities
required)
JOB EVALUATION(assessing the relative worth of job)