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Beware Wolves in Sheep’s Clothing: www.hackformers.org Informa9on Security Threat Reports, Separa9ng Fact from FUD Clare Nelson, CISSP CEO, ClearMark Consul9ng January 11, 2013 “…just because it's true doesn't make it not FUD” 1 Rafal Los 1 Source: HP Enterprise Security Blog: h=p://h30499.www3.hp.com/t5/FollowingtheWh1t3Rabbit/AbandonFUDscaretaMcsandmarkeMnghypetosell informaMon/bap/5551189

HackFormers Talk: Beware Wolves in Sheep's Clothing

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Page 1: HackFormers Talk: Beware Wolves in Sheep's Clothing

Beware  Wolves  in  Sheep’s  Clothing:    

www.hackformers.org  

Informa9on  Security  Threat  Reports,  Separa9ng  Fact  from  FUD  

Clare  Nelson,  CISSP  CEO,  ClearMark  Consul9ng  

January  11,  2013  

“…just  because  it's  true  doesn't  make  it  not  FUD”1  

     -­‐  Rafal  Los  

1Source:  HP  Enterprise  Security  Blog:  h=p://h30499.www3.hp.com/t5/Following-­‐the-­‐Wh1t3-­‐Rabbit/Abandon-­‐FUD-­‐scare-­‐taMcs-­‐and-­‐markeMng-­‐hype-­‐to-­‐sell-­‐informaMon/ba-­‐p/5551189    

Page 2: HackFormers Talk: Beware Wolves in Sheep's Clothing

Speaker  Background  •  30+  years  in  high  tech,  startups  and  Fortune  100  companies:  

–  GM  (Space  ShuZle  subcontractor  for  Boeing),  ACC  (now  Ericcson),  CMC  (now  Rockwell),  DEC  (now  HP),  EMC,  Dazel  (now  HP),  Dell,  TeaLeaf  Technology  (now  IBM),  Novell  (now  The  AZachmate  Group),  ClearMark  Consul9ng  

•  ClearMark  Consul9ng:  business  development  for  Secure  Mentem,  Blue  Coat  spinout  Quarri  Technologies,  SGI  

•  Technical  background,  Sales  &  Marke9ng  

–  Soaware  development  (Unix  device  drivers,  encrypted  TCP/IP  variants,  Space  ShuZle  test  soaware)  

–  System  management,  Product  management,  Marke9ng,  Sales  (Asia,  Europe),  Global  Alliances,  Business  Development,  IAM  

•  First  female  director  in  Dell’s  Server  and  Storage  division  

•  CISSP,  Member  Aus9n  ISSA  Board  

•  Publica9ons  include  “Security  Metrics,”  ISSA  Journal,  August  2010  

•  BS  Mathema9cs,  Tuas  University  

•  @Safe_SaaS  

•  [email protected]  

Page 3: HackFormers Talk: Beware Wolves in Sheep's Clothing

Beware  Wolves  in  Sheep’s  Clothing  

1.   Teach  Security  2.   Teach  Christ  3.   Teach  Security  in  Christ  

HackFormers  Mission  

Informa9on  Security  Threat  Reports,  Separa9ng  Fact  from  FUD  

Page 4: HackFormers Talk: Beware Wolves in Sheep's Clothing

Teach  Security  

www.hackformers.org  

Page 5: HackFormers Talk: Beware Wolves in Sheep's Clothing

 Scope  

•  InformaMon  Security  Threat  Reports  •  Free  •  Download  with  or  without  registraMon  •  Sources  – Government,  Industry,  IT  Companies  

www.hackformers.org  

Page 6: HackFormers Talk: Beware Wolves in Sheep's Clothing

What  is  a  Threat?  www.hackformers.org  

Source:    Diagram  a=ributed  to  Rassmussen,  h=p://www.gideonrasmussen.com/arMcle-­‐24.html    Source:  Threat  definiMon  a=ributed  to  NIST,  SP800-­‐30-­‐2,  “Risk  Management  Guide  for  InformaMon  Technology  Systems,”  July  2002,  page  19  

“Threat:  The  poten9al  for  a  threat-­‐source  to  exercise  (accidentally  trigger  or  inten9onally  exploit)  a  specific  vulnerability.”  

Page 7: HackFormers Talk: Beware Wolves in Sheep's Clothing

What  is  a  Threat,  Really?  www.hackformers.org  

Source:  Marinus  van  Aswegen,  Security  Architect,  Telic  ConsulMng,  January  4,  2013  blog  entry,  h=p://telicthoughts.blogspot.com/2009/02/threats-­‐vulnerabiliMes-­‐and-­‐risk.html?m=1      

Risk  

Threats  

Page 8: HackFormers Talk: Beware Wolves in Sheep's Clothing

What  Is  a  Threat  Landscape?  www.hackformers.org  

Source:  ForMnet,  h=p://www.forMnet.com/aboutus/aboutus.html    

Page 9: HackFormers Talk: Beware Wolves in Sheep's Clothing

What  Is  Your  Threat  Landscape  IQ?  www.hackformers.org  

You  

Understanding  Of  Threat    Landscape  

Page 10: HackFormers Talk: Beware Wolves in Sheep's Clothing

Unclassified  

www.hackformers.org  

Classified  

Threat  Landscape:  Knowing  What  You  Don’t  Know  

Iceberg  metaphor  a=ributed  to  Shawn  Henry,  President  Services  for  CrowdStrike,  from  DEF  CON  talk  

Unknown  unknowns…  

Page 11: HackFormers Talk: Beware Wolves in Sheep's Clothing

What  Is  at  Stake?  Risk,  Loss  Exposure1  

       “One  company  that  was  recently  the  vic3m  of  an  intrusion  determined  it  had  lost  10  years  worth  of  research  and  development—valued  at  $1  billion—virtually  overnight.”2  

www.hackformers.org  

1  Source:  ConSec  2012,  AusMn,  Texas:  Jack  Jones  on  Risk,  he  prefers  the  term,  “Loss  Exposure”  2Source:  h=p://www.bi.gov/news/speeches/responding-­‐to-­‐the-­‐cyber-­‐threat  

       Shawn  Henry          ExecuMve  Assistant  Director          Federal  Bureau  of  InvesMgaMon  

       ISSA  Interna9onal  Conference          BalMmore,  Maryland          October  20,  2011  

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The  Problem  

AZacks  evolve,  morph  and  improve.  Limited  9me  and  resources  for  tracking,  understanding  threat  landscape.  

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How  Do  You  Stay  Informed?  

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Informa9on  Security  Reports  

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Threat  Intelligence  Hype  

Source:  Dark  Reading,  November  16,  2012;  h=p://www.darkreading.com/security-­‐monitoring/167901086/security/news/240142229/threat-­‐intelligence-­‐hype.html    

How  to  measure  the  IQ  of  the  data  you're  being  fed  

“It's  not  enough  just  to  tell  you  in  detail  what  has  already  happened.  If  it's  not  helping  you  make  decisions,  or  be  proacMve,  then  it's  not  worth  paying  extra  for  it.”  

Wendy  Nather  Research  Director  of  the  Enterprise  Security  Prac3ce,  451  Research  

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Secondary  Problem  www.hackformers.org  

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“Threat  Intelligence  Reports  Play  Key  Role  In  Security  Strategies”1  

www.hackformers.org  

1  Source:  Dark  Readingh=p://www.darkreading.com/threat-­‐intelligence/167901121/security/vulnerabiliMes/240144404/survey-­‐threat-­‐intelligence-­‐reports-­‐play-­‐key-­‐role-­‐in-­‐security-­‐strategies.html?cid=nl_DR_daily_2012-­‐12-­‐14_html&elq=224c4f1f11cd499a806bf687f64ec08a    2Source:  SoluMonary,  h=p://www.soluMonary.com/index/intelligence-­‐center/press-­‐releases/Threat-­‐Intelligence-­‐Survey.php  3Source:  Security  Ba=leground:  An  ExecuMve  Field  Manual  (book)  by  Michael  Fey,  et  al  (March  2012)  

Threat  Intelligence  Reports  are  used  to:  1.    Shape  Security  Strategies  2.    Jus9fy  Security  Resource  and  Budget  Requests  3.    Execs  want  more  "acAonable  intelligence"  and  

"defense  recommendaAons”2  

Solu9onary  Survey:  n  =  178  

“Security  has  evolved  from  a  tacAcal  IT  concern  to  boardroom-­‐level  dilemma.  This  transiAon  has  challenged  many  execuAves  who  are  now  obligated  to  protect  their  organizaAon's  criAcal  assets.”3    

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Beware  the  Survey  and  other  Jabberwocks  

www.hackformers.org  

Look  for  reports  based  on  first-­‐hand  evidence  collected  during    forensics  inves9ga9ons  

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Example  1:  August  2012  Press  Release  

“Independent  study  finds  that  financial  ins9tu9ons  are  losing  clients  as  a  result  of  a  single  fraud  aZack”  

“Third  annual  Guardian  Analy3cs  and  Ponemon  Ins3tute  'Business  Banking  Trust  Study'  detects  widespread  fraud  and  loss  of  funds”  

www.hackformers.org  

2Source:  h=p://www.guardiananalyMcs.com/newsandevents/press_08062012.php    

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Example  1  (con9nued):  Fact  or  FUD?  

•  Guardian  paid  Ponemon  to  conduct  the  independent  survey  – 998  SMBs  in  the  US  

•  Guardian  sells:  Behavior-­‐based  anomaly  detecAon  soluAons  to  prevent  banking  fraud  

www.hackformers.org  

2Source:  h=p://www.guardiananalyMcs.com/newsandevents/press_08062012.php    

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Example  2:  Fact  or  FUD?  

•  McAfee  quarterly  threat  report  •  “…  the  reports  exaggerated  mobile  malware…”  •  "Virus  companies  are  playing  on  your  fears  to  try  to  sell  you  […bleeped  word…]  protecMon  soqware  for  Android,  RIM,  and,  iOS,"  DiBona  said.  

•  "They  are  charlatans  and  scammers.  If  you  work  for  a  company  selling  virus  protecMon  for  [them],  you  should  be  ashamed  of  yourself.”  

www.hackformers.org  

2Source:  h=p://www.csoonline.com/arMcle/715489/threat-­‐reports-­‐finger-­‐android-­‐again    

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www.hackformers.org  

Organization Threat Report AVG Threat Labs AVG Threat Labs Website Reports

CERT, CMU (DHS S&T, USSS) Insider Threat Study: Illicit Cyber Activity Involving Fraud in the U.S. Financial Services Sector, July 2012

Cisco Cisco 2Q 2011 Global Threat Report Commtouch Internet Threat Trends Report, October 2012 Deloitte 2012 Deloitte-NASCIO Cybersecurity Study ESET Global Threat Report: November 2012

FBI, National White Collar Crime Center 2011 Internet Crime Report

FireEye Advanced Threat Report 1H 2012 F-Secure Mobile Threat Report Q3/2012 Georgia Tech Information Security Center Emerging Cyber Threats Report 2013

HP 2011 Top Cyber Security Risks Report IBM IBM X-Force Mid-Year Trend and Risk Report, September 2012 Mandiant M-Trends 2012: An Evolving Threat McAfee McAfee Threats Report: Third Quarter 2012

Microsoft Microsoft Security Intelligence Report, (Includes Worldwide Threat Assessment), Volume 13

Sophos Security Threat Report 2013 Symantec Internet Security Threat Report, Volume 17 Trustwave Trustwave 2012 Global Security Report US Government Accountability Office (GAO) Cybersecurity Threats Impacting the Nation

Verizon Verizon Data Breach Investigations Report (DBIR) 2012 Verizon Verizon 2011 Investigative Response Caseload Review Websense Websense 2012 Threat Report WhiteHat Security WhiteHat Security Website Statistics Report, Summer 2012

What  Are  “Authorita9ve”  Threat  Reports?  Good,  Bad,  Ugly  

Page 23: HackFormers Talk: Beware Wolves in Sheep's Clothing

2012  Verizon  DBIR  

•  855  incidents,  174  million  compromised  records  –  Verizon  –  United  States  Secret  Service  (USSS)  –  Dutch  NaMonal  High  Tech  Crime  Unit  (NHTCU)  –  Australian  Federal  Police  (AFP)  –  Irish  ReporMng  &  InformaMon  Security  Service  (IRISS)  –  Police  Central  eCrimes  Unit  (PCeU)  of  the  London  Metropolitan  Police  

•  Summary  Sta9s9cs  –  85%  of  breaches  took  weeks  or  more  to  discover  –  97%  of  breaches  were  avoidable  through  simple  or  intermediate  controls  

www.hackformers.org  

Source:  h=p://www.verizonbusiness.com/about/events/2012dbir/    

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What  Are  “Authorita9ve”  Threat  Reports?  Who  Tells  Congress  What  to  Read?  

www.hackformers.org  

Cybersecurity  AuthoritaAve  Reports  and  Resources    

Tehan,  R.,  (lastest  version,  December  2012)    Congressional  Research  Service  Prepared  for  Members  of  Congress  7-­‐5700,  www.crs.gov,  R42507  

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What  Are  “Authorita9ve”  Threat  Reports?  Are  They  a  Form  of  Marke9ng?  

www.hackformers.org  

M-­‐Trends:  The  One  Threat  Report  You  Need  to  Read  

Source:  h=ps://www.mandiant.com/blog/archives/2326    

If  you're  not  paying  for  something,  you're  not  the  customer;  you're  the  product  being  sold.  

       -­‐  Andrew  Lewis  

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What  Are  “Authorita9ve”    Threat  Reports?  Are  They  a  Form  of  Marke9ng?  

www.hackformers.org  

“Annual  security  threat  reports  are  expected  from  security  companies,  while  security  professionals  chomp  at  the  bit  to  read  the  research  findings.”  

   -­‐  David  Schwartzberg,  SophosLabs    

Source:  h=p://www.darkreading.com/blog/240143806/android-­‐riskier-­‐than-­‐pcs-­‐sophos-­‐security-­‐threat-­‐report-­‐2013.html    

Page 27: HackFormers Talk: Beware Wolves in Sheep's Clothing

That  Giant  Sucking  Sound1  www.hackformers.org  

1Source:  h=p://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_sucking_sound,  The  "giant  sucking  sound"  was  United  States  PresidenMal  candidate  Ross  Perot's  colorful  phrase  for  what  he  believed  would  be  the  negaMve  effects  of  the  North  American  Free  Trade  Agreement  (NAFTA),  which  he  opposed.  

“I  wish  more  IT  Security  people  would  take:  [Econ  101,  Stats  101,  Formal  Logic,  and  Survey  101]  (all  people  really)”  -­‐-­‐  @joshcorman,  Tweeted  January  7,  2013  

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What  Are  “Authorita9ve”    Threat  Reports?  Are  They  a  Form  of  Marke9ng?  

www.hackformers.org  

Websense  Security  Labs  discovers  and  inves3gates  today’s  advanced  security  threats  and  publishes  its  findings.    

Source:    Websense,  h=p://www.websense.com/content/websense-­‐2012-­‐threat-­‐report-­‐download.aspx    

Download  report,  get  email,  get  phone  call  ...all  within  30  minutes  

Page 29: HackFormers Talk: Beware Wolves in Sheep's Clothing

What  Are  “Authorita9ve”  Reports?  Lies,  Damned  Lies  and  Sta9s9cs    

www.hackformers.org  

McAfee  Explains  The  Dubious  Math  Behind  Its  ‘Unscien3fic'  $1  Trillion  Data  Loss  Claim                      -­‐  August  3,  2012  Forbes.com    

Source:  Tehan,  R.,  (July  2012)  Cybersecurity  Authorita3ve  Reports  and  Resources,  Congressional  Research  Service,  Prepared  for  Members  of  Congress,  7-­‐5700,  www.crs.gov,  R42507.  

No,  the  staAsAc  was  not  simply  made  up.  Yes,  it’s  just  a  “ballpark  figure”  and  an  “unscienAfic”  one,  the  company  admits.  But  despite  Pro  Publica’s  criAcisms  and  its  own  rather  fuzzy  math,  the  company  stands  by  its  trillion-­‐dollar  conclusion  as  a  (very)  rough  esAmate.  

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What  Are  “Authorita9ve”  Threat  Reports?  Art  or  Science?  

www.hackformers.org  

“Threat  analysis,  in  many  ways,  is  equal  parts  art  and  science.”  

Source:  McAfee  Threats  Report:  Third  Quarter  2012  

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What  Are  “Authorita9ve”  Reports?  “There  Are  No  Facts,  Only  InterpretaAons”  

www.hackformers.org  

“At  McAfee  Labs  we  try  to  apply  as  much  math  and  analyMcal  rigor  to  our  analysis  as  we  can,  but  we  oqen  cannot  see  the  whole  picture.  We  must  also  interpret  and  surmise  many  things.  German  philosopher  Friedrich  Nietzsche  wrote  “There  are  no  facts,  only  interpreta9ons.”  This  bit  of  wisdom  strikes  us  as  quite  relevant  to  analyzing  threats.  

Depending  on  one’s  perspec9ve,  threats  can  mean  many  things.  Spam,  for  example,  looks  like  it’s  on  a  steady  decline  when  viewed  globally,  but  when  looked  at  locally  or  by  country  we  see  tremendous  varia9ons.  The  same  can  be  said  of  many  threat  vectors  we  analyze…”  

Source:  McAfee  Threats  Report:  Third  Quarter  2012  

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What  is  the  Geographic  Coverage?  

F-­‐Secure,  Shadowserver  and  Conficker  Working  Group,  “Conficker  World  Map.”      Source:  h=p://www.f-­‐secure.com/weblog/archives/00001646.html  (September  3,  2012).  

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Why  Do  Some  Reports  Conflict?  

Who  Sponsors  the  Reports?  What  is  the  Methodology?  

Le  Penseur,  by  Auguste  Rodin  

Page 34: HackFormers Talk: Beware Wolves in Sheep's Clothing

Methodology  

Surveys  

•  UnrepresentaMve  samples  

•  Measurement  error  

–  Leading  quesMons  –  Social  desirability  

•  Sampling  error  and  survey  bias  

MSSP  and  Product  Data  Collec9on  

•  Customer  profile,  installed  base  sampling,  geography  

•  Filtering,  default  versus  unique  sewngs  

•  Compare  with  previous  reports,  not  apples-­‐to-­‐apples  

•  Data  aggregaMon  methods  

•  Time:  what  period  does  the  report  cover?  

•  Does  the  report  clearly  state  the  date  of  publicaAon?  

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Sponsorship  

Who  Funded  the  Report?  

•  Spread  misleading  informaMon  

•  Spread  FUD  

•  Skewed  toward  latest  product  or  service  

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Are  Terms  Defined?  www.hackformers.org  

Advanced  Persistent  Threat  

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FUD  or  Not?  

     “Advanced  malware  con3nues  to  grow  and  in  the  first  half  of  2012  is  up  nearly  400%  versus  the  first  half  of  2011.”  

Source:  h=p://blog.fireeye.com/research/2012/08/just-­‐released-­‐fireeye-­‐advanced-­‐threat-­‐report-­‐1h-­‐2012.html  (November  1,  2012)  

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Teach  Christ  

www.hackformers.org  

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Sermon  on  the  Mount  www.hackformers.org  

Beware  of  false  prophets,  which  come  to  you  in  sheep's  clothing,  but  inwardly  they  are  ravening  wolves.  

MaZhew  7:15  

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What  is  a  False  Prophet?  

Ma=hew  Henry's  Commentary  Ma\hew  7:15-­‐20    

Nothing  so  much  prevents  men  from  entering  the  strait  gate,  and  becoming  true  followers  of  Christ,  as  the  carnal,  soothing,  fla=ering  doctrines  of  those  who  oppose  the  truth.    

They  may  be  known  by  the  driq  and  effects  of  their  doctrines.  Some  part  of  their  temper  and  conduct  is  contrary  to  the  mind  of  Christ.  Those  opinions  come  not  from  God  and  lead  to  sin.  

Source:  h=p://bible.cc/ma=hew/7-­‐15.htm    

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Sermon  on  the  Mount  www.hackformers.org  

Jesus  concludes  the  sermon  by  warning  against  false  prophets,  and  emphasizes  that  humans  are  unable  to  do  right  ("bear  fruit")  apart  from  God.  

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MaZhew  7:15-­‐20  

15  Beware  of  false  prophets,  which  come  to  you  in  sheep's  clothing,  but  inwardly  they  are  ravening  wolves.  

16  Ye  shall  know  them  by  their  fruits.  Do  men  gather  grapes  of  thorns,  or  figs  of  thistles?  

17  Even  so  every  good  tree  bringeth  forth  good  fruit;  but  a  corrupt  tree  bringeth  forth  evil  fruit.  

18  A  good  tree  cannot  bring  forth  evil  fruit,  neither  can  a  corrupt  tree  bring  forth  good  fruit.  

19  Every  tree  that  bringeth  not  forth  good  fruit  is  hewn  down,  and  cast  into  the  fire.  

20  Wherefore  by  their  fruits  ye  shall  know  them.  

www.hackformers.org  

MaZhew  7  ,  King  James  Version  (KJV),  h=p://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Ma=hew+7&version=KJV    

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Why  Warn  about  False  Prophets?  

For  false  Christs  and  false  prophets  shall  rise,  and  shall  shew  signs  and  wonders,  to  seduce,  if  it  were  possible,  even  the  elect.  Mark  13:22  

But  there  were  false  prophets  also  among  the  people,  even  as  there  shall  be  false  teachers  among  you,  who  privily  shall  bring  in  damnable  heresies,  even  denying  the  Lord  that  bought  them,  and  bring  upon  themselves  swiq  destrucMon.  2  Peter  2:1  

Woe  unto  you,  when  all  men  shall  speak  well  of  you!  for  so  did  their  fathers  to  the  false  prophets.  Luke  6:26  

And  he  said,  Take  heed  that  ye  be  not  deceived:  for  many  shall  come  in  my  name,  saying,  I  am  Christ;  and  the  Mme  draweth  near:  go  ye  not  therefore  aqer  them.  Luke  21:8  

For  many  shall  come  in  my  name,  saying,  I  am  Christ;  and  shall  deceive  many.  MaZhew  24:5  

And  many  false  prophets  shall  rise,  and  shall  deceive  many.  MaZhew  24:11  

Source:  h=p://bible.cc/ma=hew/7-­‐15.htm,  h=p://bible.cc/ma=hew/24-­‐5.htm,  etc.    

Many  warnings  in  Bible  

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Teach  Security  In  Christ  

www.hackformers.org  

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Who  Influences  Your  Faith?  

InfoSec  Ques9ons  

•  What  are  the  data  sources?  

•  What  geographies  are  covered?  

•  Who  funded  the  report?  •  Why  was  the  report  published?  

•  When  was  the  report  published?  

•  What  are  the  report  biases?  

•  Who  wrote  the  report?  

•  Is  the  report  methodology  documented?  

•  Are  trends  tracked  over  Mme?  

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Beware  

•  “…read  the  threat  reports  with  cauMon.  They  are  vendor  markeMng  documents  designed  to  posiMon  vendor  research  teams  as  industry  experts  that  bring  the  vendor  a  compeMMve  advantage.”  

•  “The  reports'  findings  only  represent  what  the  vendor  is  looking  for  along  with  a  natural  bias  towards  the  vendor's  business.”    

•  “Security  pros  can  do  beZer  by  examining  mul9ple  vendor  threat  reports  to  get  a  more  complete  picture  and  map  the  threat  classes  to  the  business.”  

www.hackformers.org  

Source:  h=p://searchsecurity.techtarget.com/news/1373865/How-­‐to-­‐use-­‐Internet-­‐security-­‐threat-­‐reports    

“How  to  use  Internet  security  threat  reports”  

Author:  Eric  Ogren,  founder  and  Principal  Analyst  of  the  Ogren  Group,  formerly  with  RSA,  etc.  

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What  is  Decep9on?  

Deceive  de·∙ceive    (d-­‐sv)v.  de·∙ceived,  de·∙ceiv·∙ing,  de·∙ceives    v.tr.  

1.  To  cause  to  believe  what  is  not  true;  mislead.  2.  Archaic  To  catch  by  guile;  ensnare.  

v.intr.  1.  To  pracMce  deceit.  2.  To  give  a  false  impression:  appearances  can  deceive.  

[Middle  English  deceiven,  from  Old  French  deceveir,  from  Vulgar  LaMn  *dcipre,  from  LaMn  dcipere,  to  ensnare,  deceive  :  d-­‐,  de-­‐  +  capere,  to  seize;  see  kap-­‐  in  Indo-­‐European  roots.]  

Source:  h=p://www.thefreedicMonary.com/deceive      (November  2,  2012).  

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Discriminate  

InfoSec  Strategy  

•  QuesMon  presenters  and  ask  them  to  cite  their  sources  

•  PowerPoint  defect:  no  “Insert”  footnote  funcAon  

•  Plan  your  report  reading  •  Don’t  just  read  latest  inbox  

delivery  

•  Create  your  own  top  ten  report  list  

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What  Does  This  Mean  Today?  

“The  salva9on  promised  is  more  than  deliverance  from  evil,  it  is  everlas9ng  blessedness.”1  

1Source:  h=p://bible.cc/mark/13-­‐13.htm,  Ma=hew  Henry  commentary  on  Mark  13:13  

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Addi9onal  References  

1.  Tehan,  R.,  (July  2012)  Cybersecurity  Authorita3ve  Reports  and  Resources,  Congressional  Research  Service,  Prepared  for  Members  of  Congress,  7-­‐5700,  www.crs.gov,  R42507  

2.  Ma=hew  7:15,  Online  Parallel  Bible,  Retrieved  December  1,  2012,  from  h=p://bible.cc/ma=hew/7-­‐15.htm  3.  The  Holy  Bible,  King  James  Version  4.  Tripwire  blog,  State  of  Security,  “The  Four  Horsemen  of  the  Apocalypse:  Security  Soqware  FUD”  by  Kevin  

Weston,  November  9,  2012,  h=p://www.tripwire.com/state-­‐of-­‐security/off-­‐topic/the-­‐four-­‐horsemen-­‐of-­‐the-­‐cyber-­‐apocalypse-­‐fud-­‐in-­‐security-­‐soqware-­‐markeMng/  

5.  Rafal  Los,  “Abandon  FUD,  Scare  TacMcs  and  MarkeMng  Hype,”  February  26,  2012;  h=p://www.infosecisland.com/blogview/20397-­‐Abandon-­‐FUD-­‐Scare-­‐TacMcs-­‐and-­‐MarkeMng-­‐Hype.html  

6.  Gal  Shpantzer,  “Showcasing  Fear,  Uncertainty  and  Doubt  from  the  InformaMon  Security  Industry,”  May  14,  2010,  h=p://fudsec.com/scsovlf-­‐aka-­‐the-­‐shpantzer-­‐coma-­‐scale-­‐of-­‐vendo  

7.  InformaMon  Security,  ReputaMon  and  FUD,  July  17,  2012,  h=p://makeitcompliant.blogspot.com/2012/07/informaMon-­‐security-­‐reputaMon-­‐and-­‐fud.html  

8.  “Just  Say  No  to  FUD,”  October  30,  2009;  h=p://newschoolsecurity.com/2009/10/just-­‐say-­‐no-­‐to-­‐fud/,  Featuring  Dr.  Anton  Chuvakin”  

9.  CSO  Online,  “Cybersecurity  Expert  Argues  FUD  Can  Be  EffecMve,”  June  11,  2012;  Taylor  Armerding,  h=p://www.csoonline.com/arMcle/708215/cybersecurity-­‐expert-­‐argues-­‐fud-­‐can-­‐be-­‐effecMve    

10.  Richard  Bejtlich’s  blog,  Monday,  October  27,  2003,  The  Dynamic  Duo  Discuss  Digital  Risk,  h=p://taosecurity.blogspot.com/2003/10/dynamic-­‐duo-­‐discuss-­‐digital-­‐risk.html?m=0      

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Backup  Slides  

www.hackformers.org  

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What  is  the  Geographic  Coverage?  

Each  country  lists  6  contribuAng  factors,  share  of  malicious  computer  acAvity,  malicious  code  rank,  spam  zombies  rank,    phishing  web  site  hosts  rank,  bot  rank  and  a`ack  origin,  to  substanAate  its  cybercrime  ranking.  

BusinessWeek,  Symantec:  Cybercrime:  Top  20  Countries,  h=p://www.enigmasoqware.com/top-­‐20-­‐countries-­‐the-­‐most-­‐cybercrime/  (September  3,  2012).  

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Verizon  DBIR  2012  www.hackformers.org  

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On  FUD  (From  Tripwire  Blog)  

•  …Some  soqware  security  vendors  create  sensaMonalisMc  reports  or  claims,  these  false  or  exaggerated  stories  are  then  fed  to  the  media.    The  media  propagate  the  story  without  fact  checking  and  someMmes  embellishing  it  further  to  increase  the  likelihood  that  readers  will  click  on  and  share  links  to  the  story  making  it  go  viral.  For  example  the  threat  of  mobile  malware  has  been  overinflated  by  several  vendors  who  sell  mobile  anM-­‐virus  products  who  offer  marginal  levels  of  protecMon  if  any  at  all.  

•  It  is  important  to  remember  that  many  tech  blogs  make  money  based  on  the  number  of  ad  impressions  they  have  on  their  site,  not  the  factual  integrity  of  the  story  they  are  reporMng.    Pair  the  revenue  model  with  the  number  of  stories  a  professional  blogger  needs  to  post  in  a  day  and  you  can  pre=y  much  guarantee  some  writers  will  not  actually  fact  check,  or  test  the  product  they  are  wriMng  about.    MisinformaMon  travels  just  as  fast  if  not  faster  than  truth.  By  the  Mme  the  story  has  hit  mainstream  media  the  conquest  is  complete,  even  if  there  are  correcMons  to  a  story,  once  it  goes  viral  the  truth  becomes  irrelevant.  

www.hackformers.org  

Source:  h=p://www.tripwire.com/state-­‐of-­‐security/off-­‐topic/the-­‐four-­‐horsemen-­‐of-­‐the-­‐cyber-­‐apocalypse-­‐fud-­‐in-­‐security-­‐soqware-­‐markeMng/    

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Showcasing  Fear,  Uncertainty  and  Doubt  from  the  Informa9on  Security  Industry  

       Since  the  founding  of  Fudsec  we've  looked  to  expose  FUD,  but  unMl  today  it's  been  a  li=le  like  JusMce  Stewart's  definiMon  of  obscenity  -­‐  I  can't  define  it,  but  "I  know  it  when  I  see  it."  

www.hackformers.org  

Source:  h=p://fudsec.com/scsovlf-­‐aka-­‐the-­‐shpantzer-­‐coma-­‐scale-­‐of-­‐vendo    

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Showcasing  Fear,  Uncertainty  and  Doubt  from  the  Informa9on  Security  Industry  

•  FUD  is  the  tool  of  choice  for  bad  sales  people  in  the  informaMon  security  world,  "you  might  be  subject  to  this,  This  or  even  THIS!!".      

•   If  you  hear  these  cries  you  are  probably  talking  to  a  bad  sales  person.      

•  Honest  consultants  will  help  you  manage  and  understand  informaMon  security  risks.    They  may  even  get  to  the  point  where  they  tell  you  that  some  risks  can't  be  quanMfied  using  tradiMonal  methods  and  then  frame  advice  using  good  pracMce  references.      

www.hackformers.org  

Source:  h=p://makeitcompliant.blogspot.com/2012/07/informaMon-­‐security-­‐reputaMon-­‐and-­‐fud.html    

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FUD  Origin  

•  The  term  “FUD”  originated  in  the  1970s  to  describe  some  of  IBM’s  selling  tacMcs  against  compeMtors  (who  had  be=er  price/performance,  etc.).    

•  The  FUD  technique  was  used  by  IBM  sales  people  to  destabilize  the  decision-­‐maker’s  thinking  process.  FUD  issues  raised  could  not  really  be  answered  by  the  decision-­‐maker  or  the  compeMtor,  and  so  nagged  at  the  back  of  the  mind.  They  had  the  effect  of  causing  the  decision-­‐maker  to  retreat  to  the  safe  decision,  which  was  IBM.  “Nobody  ever  got  fired  for  buying  IBM”.  

www.hackformers.org  

Source:  h=p://newschoolsecurity.com/2009/10/just-­‐say-­‐no-­‐to-­‐fud/    

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Cybersecurity  Expert  Argues  FUD  Can  Be  Effec9ve  

•  …she  does  not  advocate  sowing  panic.  But  she  believes  FUD  -­‐-­‐  especially  doubt  -­‐-­‐  "may  make  people  quesMon  things.”  

•  "It  wouldn't  take  a  hell  of  a  lot  to  do  damage.  Our  SCADA  (supervisory  control  and  data  acquisiMon)  systems  have  been  penetrated  before.”  

•  …biggest  concern  is  that  nobody  yet  understands  the  long-­‐term  consequences  of  cyber  conflict.  "When  the  atomic  bomb  was  was  developed,  only  a  few  people  saw  the  long-­‐term  consequences.  This  is  really  no  different.  We  don't  have  a  handle  on  it,"  she  said.  

www.hackformers.org  

Source:  h=p://www.csoonline.com/arMcle/708215/cybersecurity-­‐expert-­‐argues-­‐fud-­‐can-­‐be-­‐effecMve    

-­‐    Sharon  Nelson,  an  a=orney  and  president  of  the  informaMon  security,  digital  forensics  and  IT  consulMng  firm  Sensei  Enterprises  

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Are  Threat  Reports  a  Crude  Form  of  Sharing?  

•  “Enterprises  are  restricted  by  legal  issues,  compe33ve  considera3ons,  and  fears  of  reputa3on  loss.”  

•  “Government  agencies  are  restricted  by  classifica3on  requirements  and  na3onal  security  concerns.”  

www.hackformers.org  

Source:  RSA  “Security  for  Business  InnovaMon  Council”  report,  2012.