Global Pulse Scenario: Consumption, Production and Trade

P K Joshi and P Parthasarthy RaoSouth Asia Regional Office

International Food Policy Research InstituteE-mail: p.joshi@cigar.org; Web: www.ifpri-org

International Conference on “Pulses for Health, Nutrition and Sustainable Agriculture in Drylands”

Marrakech, Morocco, April 18-20, 2016

OutlinePulse consumption, demand and production

Regional patterns of pulses production

Global trade and prices of pulses

Global future outlook for pulses

Conclusions and way forward

Consumption and utilization of pulses

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20

40

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1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Food

(%)

World Developed Developing

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20

30

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80

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Feed

(%)

0.00

2.00

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14.00

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Per c

apita

food

World Developed Developing

• Global demand for pulses is increasing• Around 70 m t in 2011-13 compared to 42 m t in

1980-81• But per capita consumption declined (10 kg in

1961 to 6.5 kg in 2011); slow rise in recent years• Diverse uses for food & feed

• Developing countries 80% as food• Developed countries <40% as food

An illustration from India: pulse utilization

Direct food 13.8 m t (69%) Value added products 4.0 m t (20%) Seed 1.4 m t (7%) Miscellaneous 0.8 m t (4%)

Drivers of household consumption: role of demand elasticities

Consumer Income Price Overall

All 0.206 -0.456 -0.250

Poor 0.500 -0.699 -0.199

Rich 0.098 -0.345 -0.250

Price elasticity is more than income elasticity

Net elasticity is -0.250 Poor are more sensitive to

these elasticities Pe= -0.666 and Ie= 0.500

Consumption will be stabilized if income increase is more than price increase

Pulses production and area

Roughly 72 m t of pulses are produced from about 80 m ha It was 45 mt from 64 m ha area in 1981-83

Global pulses production during 1980s increased impressively (3.7%); stagnated (0.1%) during 1990s; and picked-up (2.2%) during 2000s. Yield gains was the main source of production

increase during 1980s (62%) but area during 2000 (63%) Yields were increasing in developed countries,

while area in developing countries Share of Europe and Latin America is declining Pulses finding new niches in North America,

Oceania and many African countries

Area and production of pulses

0.1

33.7

9.3

14.12.9

3.71.2

20.9

5.1 6.2

2.80.3

31.9

5.8

16.88.9

6.51.5

14.6

6.26.3

1.2Bambara beans

Beans, dry

Broad beans, horsebeans, dry

Chick peas

Cow peas, dry

Lentils

Lupins

Peas, dry

• Five pulses contribute about 80% of pulses production

• Dry beans tops the list (32%) followed by chickpea(17%) dry peas (14.6%);Cowpea (9%) and lentils (6%)

• Share of cowpea and lentilincreased from 6 to 15%

• Chickpea share marginallyincreased but dry beansdeclined

1981-83 2011-13

Yield of pulses versus cereals (kg/ha)

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1961

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2013

Yiel

d (k

g/ha

)

Cereals Pulses

0500

1000150020002500300035004000450050005500

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

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2001

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2009

2013

Yiel

d (k

g/ha

)

Developed cereals Developing cereals

Developed pulses Developing pulses

• Global cereals yields increased rapidly• 1500 kg/ha in 1961 to 4000 kg/ha in 2013

• Pulse yields barely doubled from 550 kg/ha to1000 kg/ha

• Cereal yields increased significantly both indeveloped and developing countries

• Pulse yields increased mainly in developedcountries until mid 1990s and thereafterstagnated

• In developing countries pulse yields werestagnant throughout and increased marginallyonly from mid 2005

Yield of all pulses in different countries, 2011-13

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Canada

United States of Am

erica

China

Turkey

Ethiopia

Russian Federation

Australia

Myanm

ar

Brazil

Nigeria

Iran (Islamic Republic of)

United Republic of Tanzania

Mexico

India

Pakistan

Kenya

Uganda

Burkina Faso

Mozam

bique

Niger

Yiel

d (k

g/ha

)

Global average yield of all pulses is around 900 kg/ha Dry peas has highest yields, 1.65 t/ha

Average yields of developed countries was > 1.2 t/ha Canada > 2 t/ha; US near 2 t/ha

Developing countries average yield was <1 t/ha Myanmar and Ethiopia are exception Most of the African and S Asian

countries yields are < 500 kg/ha

India: yield gaps between existing and potential (kg/ha)Source: Singh, NP and Saxena, MC. 2016. Towards self-sufficiency of pulses in India, Base paper for NAAS Brainstorming workshop on 8 April 2016

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797 792

1014890 843

1047

1433 14351300

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Blackgram Greengram lentil Pigeonpea Chickpea

Yield gaps in pulses

Existing Demonstration Potential

High yield gaps ranging from 75% in lentil to 224% in green gram

Causes of high yield gaps Poor quality of seed Poor management practices

Bridge Yield gap I Chickpea production will

increase by 4.3 mt; and pigeon pea by 2.4 mt

Little efforts will take pulse production to 26-27 mt

Changing regional patterns in pulses production

Asia & Africa share about 70% of all pulses; showing rising trends Africa is showing fastest growth in pulses production (4.6%)

Chickpea and pigeon pea in East Africa and Cowpea in West Africa Southeast Asia is emerging fastest growing region in pulses (7.4%)

Dry beans, chickpea and pigeon pea are gaining importance Chickpea and pigeon pea showing increasing trends in South Asia Among developed regions, North America led by Canada and

Oceania are showing rising trends (4.1%) Lentils in Canada and Chickpea and lentils in Oceania

Growing importance of pulses in many countries- especially more vulnerable population

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1011.7

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30.6

36.2

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Nigeria Tanzania India Uganda Burkina FasoMozambique Kenya Nigeria Myanmar

Share of pulse area in arable land, %

1980-82 2011-13

Region-wise self-sufficiency in pulses

0.96

2.27

3.03

1.56

0.89 0.93 1.02 0.930.72 0.81

1.021.24

1.55

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3.5

Self-sufficiency ratio At aggregate level, Developed countries have surplus while deficit in developing countries Northern America has very surplus, while

Asia has high deficit

Self-sufficiency is increasing in developed countries and further declining in developing countries

West and South Asia are highly deficit in pulses Self-sufficiency is declining fast over the

years

Pulse trade: changing patterns Global pulse trade is about 12 million tons; it

was 3 m t in 1980-82 and 6.5 m t in 1990-92 It is about 18% of total pulse production Developed countries shares 65% of all exports Developing countries shares 82% of all imports; South

Asia shares about 40% of imports

Exports zooming from North America from 1990s led by Canada Canada, Myanmar, USA, Australia and China account

for 75% of all exports

India is largest importing country (3-4 m t) India, China, BD, Pakistan and Egypt account about

62% of all imports

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19801983198619891992199519982001200420072010

Expo

rts

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1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

Impo

rts

World (Pulses) Developed (Pulses)

Developing (Pulses) World (Cereals)

Developed (Cereals) Developing (Cereals)

Exports

Imports

Growing importance of dry peas in trade

ImportsExports

Improve pulse value chain and correct price policy

3175 30754650 4425 4425

6000

8900 925010200

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950010250

1200013500

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Chickpea Lentil Greengram blackgram Pegionpea

MSP Wholesale Retail

Consumer

Pulse prices

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1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Prod

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pri

ces

(US$

/ton

ne)

Canada Spain

Russian Federation United Kingdom

United States of America

Dry peas

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1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Beans, dry Broad beans, horse beans, dry

Chick peas Lentils

Peas, dry Pulses (Total)

Stage I: 1961-71 almost stagnatedStage II: 1971-85 increasing; peak for chickpea in 1979-80 & most pulses in 1981Stage III: 1985-03 volatile; peak for chickpea in 1995Stage IV: 2003 onward rising trend with peak in 2008Dry peas: Lower prices than other pulses; with peak in 2008 and then rising

Future pulse outlook (Source: Clancey 2009; Kumar et al 2009; Rao et al 2010)

Global pulse consumption may grow by 10% in coming decade and 23% by 2030; more rapidly in Africa and Asia Pulse consumption in Africa may rise 27% in next decade and 50% by 2030 In Asia, pulses consumption would increase by 12% in 2020 and by 24% in 2030

Yields to increase more than 1.5 times; not easy task Or additional area under pulses to 6 m ha by 2020 and 10 m ha by 2030

Prices of pulses will increase Rising demand Non-availability of high-yielding technologies

Trade may increase; developing countries to import more Shift in consumption towards value added products

More private sector participation

Conclusions and way forward

Demand for pulses is growing but supply constraints will lead to rise in prices and increase trade

Pulses production and trade scenario in changing New countries are producing pulses and

exporting to deficit countries

Global level Increase funding for pulse research Incentives for improved technologies to

public as well as private sector Liberalize pulse trade

National level Bridge yield gaps to increase domestic

production Improve pulse value chains to benefit

producers and consumers Attract private sector in pulses

production, processing and marketing Promote innovative institutions for scale

International Year of Pulses- 2016Commit ensuring pulses to poor at affordable prices

Thank you