Global Food Security - Challenges and long-term perspective

Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Global Food Security

Challenges and long-term perspective

Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Rome, September 2009

Rome, September 2009 2Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective


Main messages

Hunger in the world is increasing

Crises exacerbate the situation dramatically

Important long-term challenges to agriculture as a source of food and livelihoods

Use emerging consensus to reduce hunger and improve food security governance



Trends in world hunger



The current economic crisis at the core

At the heel of soaring food prices

Households with depleted coping mechanisms

Global crisis, not locally bound

However, more fundamental causes of hunger• number of hungry has not fallen below 800 million

over the past 40 years• even in times of economic growth and low food prices



Future challenges and perspectives



Source: UN Population Division, from van der Mensbrugghe et al. 2009

Population growth



Income growth

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Developing country growth (right-axis)

High-income country growth (right-axis)

Developing country GDP (left-axis)

High-income country GDP (left-axis)

Source: Simulation results with World Bank’s ENVISAGE model, from van der Mensbrugghe et al. 2009



How much more needs to be produced by 2050?

255

97

63

23

148

70

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

past

future

past

future

past

future

De

ve

lop

ing

De

ve

lop

ed

Wo

rld Agricultural production



9

14

77

21

8

71

30

18

52

25

6

69

5

8

87

2

12

86

-7

17

90

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

WorldDeveloping countries

Latin America

sub-Saharan Africa

South Asia

East Asia

Near East / North Africa

Arable land expansion Increases in cropping intensity Yield increases

Sources of growth in crop production



Water resources

Global abundance of water

Local shortages reaching alarming rates

Regions without potential for land and water expansion (Near East and North Africa, South Asia)

Harvested irrigated land to expand by 17%, water withdrawals by 11%.



Feeding the world in 2050

Demand can be met by expanding and better exploiting available resources

Scenario assumes that:• long-standing forces will continue in the long run (e.g.

population, diet shifts, urbanization)• yield gaps can be bridged and new varieties will

further improve the ability of the world to feed itself



However, many questions remain

Global scenario masks that at least 27 countries will face undernourishment above 5% in 2050

370 million people in developing countries would still be hungry

Several countries seem to have reached the limits of agro-ecological potential to expand agriculture



Five main challenges

Yields/technology

Climate change

Biofuels

Hunger reduction and agricultural transformation

Global food security governance



The yields challenge

Yield increases have accounted for the majority of production growth in recent decades

Yields and intensification will account for 90% of the growth in crop production

Yield Growth for major grains: • Decline from 1.9 to 0.7 annual growth rate (1961-2007 vs. 2005-2050)

• However potential for closing the “yield gap” is high... and achievable



The technology challenge

Enormous returns to Research & Development (40-50%)

Baseline projections assume a steady growth in yields

But global R&D spending is too low and decreasing• 1981-1991: 2.1% • 1991-2000: 1.1 % (Dev. Countries: 1.9%, Ind. Countries: 0.5% )• Huge disparities: India (6.2%), China (3.9%)



Annual growth rates in agricultural R&D

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Sub-SaharanAfrica

Asia & Pacific Latin America& Caribbean

West Asia &North Africa

Developingcountries

High-incomecountries

Ann

ual g

row

th r

ate

(per

cent

age)

1976-81 1981-91 1991-2000



The technology challenge

R&D adaptation for the needs of smallholders, marginal areas and orphan crops

Incentive structure and resource mobilization to ensure the right technologies for problems of the future

Private-public partnerships for agricultural R&D

Developing gender-balanced systems for spreading knowledge, skills and technology



Impacts of climate change on crop production: vary significantly over time are geographically unevenly distributed

Aggregate impacts of projected climate change on the global food system are relatively small.

The global balance of food demand and supply is not likely to be challenged until middle of the 21st century.

Autonomous adaptation will offset some warming

Climate change challenge




Atmospheric changes (CO2 fertilization) may initially increase productivity of current agricultural land

Climate change, will have a clearly negative impact in the second half of the 21st century

Impacts on land vary: Land suitability down in Africa and Latin America but up (initially) elsewhere

Changes in frequencies of extreme events (droughts, heat waves, severe storms) are more troublesome in the near future




Remove key constraints to adaptation

Explore key synergies between food security, adaptation and mitigation (technological, institutional, financing )

Using payments for carbon as an important source of funding for developing country agriculture



The biofuels challenge

Impacts of biofuels larger in the short and medium run as second generation is developed

Hunger reduction hampered by increased biofuel production

Opportunities for producers, but uneven access to markets



Agricultural transformation challenge

Agriculture’s role beyond food production• As an engine of economic growth and poverty reduction

• As an engine of growth for the rural economy

• Even in transition countries key role to reduce poverty

Share of agriculture generally declines with development• Agro-industrialization

• Erosion of the comparative advantage of smallholders

• Pressure to commercialize or exit the sector

Protect and improve livelihoods during “agricultural transformation”



Governance challenge

Create a system that promotes, supports and sustains food security - especially for the poorest and most marginal

Address structural causes of food insecurity and their institutional and governance dimensions

Improve the management of the world agricultural system

Address climate change and its long and short-term challenges

Ensure sufficient public investment in agriculture, especially in research, extension, infrastructure and biodiversity



Towards a global food security governance

Improve coordination and policy cohesion between all key stakeholders

Better address complex and interrelated issues of global food security

Ensure that declarations to end hunger are converted to concrete actions



Conclusions

Agriculture and food security back on the policy agenda

Right to Food accepted as a framework for global action

Rights to resources frameworks arising as a result

Reform of global food security governance

Increase public and private investment

Sound agricultural policies and strategies

Social protection and safety nets

Strengthen smallholder access to resources

Explore options for coordinated risk management



For more information

For more information, please visit:

http://www.fao.org/economic/es-policybriefs

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Global Food Security - Challenges and long-term perspective